tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 26, 2018 1:00am-2:30am EST
nejra: nejra cehic. manus: i'm manus cranny in dubai. these are the top stories. nejra: eu leaders get their figures crossed but say there will be no renegotiation. will she convince u.k. lawmakers to back her brexit deal? saudi oilmbitions, titans plan to invest $500 billion and acquisitions in the next 10 years. the ceo says the long-awaited ipo hasn't been called off. ipoe are committed to the so the government is committed, for sure. it is about timing.
nejra: and the stock selloff takes a breather. oil bounces while fed speaker and mario draghi give the market reassuring signals this week? ♪ manus: let's turn to our top story. minutesy, the eu had 40 to approve theresa may's brexit agreement. next up will be a vote in parliament. the prime minister said a divisive -- decisive vote will happen before christmas. they are on a mission. anna edwards is outside the houses of parliament. good morning. the prime minister theresa may, will she get her deal through parliament? it's the question. anna: yes, good morning to you.
she is taking her sales pitch directly to the people. that's clear. she's written letters, appeared on radio: shows, tried to convince the people. could hundredand 25 mps. -- 325 mps. they don't like the deal. the numbers do not look good. should the real question be, how many votes will it take to get this deal through parliament? that makes a lot of assumptions. it's possible to imagine future scenarios. a vote against her leadership, the government, the general election, although the numbers are hard to work out, a second referendum, or hard brexit. all of those things remain on the table. even between now and christmas, the path remains unclear. nejra: the eu has said there
will be no renegotiation, but if parliament does a vote this down, is there any wiggle room? anda: this is brussels nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. but this is as good as it will get. there will be no negotiation. au leaders believe it's up to the u.k. parliament. the head of the commission said it's the best possible deal in a bad situation. he trusts the parliament will be smart enough to get this thing done. there will be no renegotiation, especially when it comes to the agreement. that includes the irish -- manus: nothing agreed until all agreed. ladies, thank you very much. anna edwards in westminster, maria tadeo in brussels. my last guess set -- guest said
there could be with the room. let's get a quick flash at the market. bitcoin is getting trashed again. here is brent, over 2%. we saw a ratcheting lower, down 15%. we've turned it around. a decision will be made at the g20. morgan stanley has a note out this morning. those to equal weight on japan and overweight on emerging markets. at the bottom of your screen, you have bitcoin. you thought you escape the worst of it. there's more to come. $700 billion lost on bitcoin, down 6.66%. go to btv live go and see the interview. this is nearly the worst air market in -- bear market and bitcoin history. that's paltry compared to 2011. nejra, good morning.
nejra: welcome back. you told me $700 billion from bitcoin, $300 trillion has been wiped from u.s. equities. we sell the markets drop into a correction on friday, dragged down by oil is energy stocks plummeted. we are bouncing higher on the features in today's session. s&p, nasdaq, and dow futures. look at tenured treasury yields, edging higher. but it doesn't -- this is the first date since november 8 the 10 year yield is heading higher. there are questions whether we will breach 3% to the downside. watching the euro, cable on 128. not only are we looking to see whether theresa may could convince lawmakers of brexit deal, mario draghi faces eu lawmakers later today. sterling steady for now. we're also live from paris. we'll speak with the french
economy minister and bring interviews with the ceo's of nordea bank. let's check in on markets in asia and juliette saly has more. good to see you. we're seeing asia in the green. juliette: we are. good to see you. i know what you meant. we are seeing stocks move higher, asia index up .33%, the nikkei leading these games coming back after the public holiday friday and a weaker yen. also, hong kong's real estate stocks looking solid. you're seeing weakness in india, some of the banks like yes bank under pressure. let's look at the other stock movers. taiwan shares moving strongly following an election debt where pro-china party scored a big win, and the market, according to analyst, seems to like it when it looks like they are taking victory.
i mentioned the downturn in commodities, particularly in the iron ore space. the singapore contract futures lowest since july. the metals group in sydney down 4%. we're awaiting a board meeting from mitsubishi motors to decide on the future, that is of course call is going, -- carlos ghosn, who remains under arrest in japan. manus: thank you for the latest on the markets. let's get first word news with debra mao in hong kong. debra: manus, russia has fired on ukrainian warships, capturing three and injuring some of their crew. this marks a dramatic renewal of tensions to an ex soviet neighbors. the incident occurred off crimea, the peninsula russia annexed for years ago. it cut off access to the straight for security reasons. the united states -- united
nations security council will hold an emergency meeting later in new york. saudi aramco says it remains committed to an ipo and the only question now is timing. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, they said the saudi oil giant is committed to an oil stake and the two cannot happen at the same time. oil has been hurt by falling prices, but it's a essential to attempts to diversify its economy. >> these two cannot go concurrently. you cannot lift while you are going to the major acquisition. it makes a lot of sense for us and we have to do it right now. 2 million to 3 million barrels. debra: taiwan's china party has won big in the local elections this weekend. they defeated the democratic progressive party.
ar toes them over a ye win public support, for risk going down as the nation's first one term president. italy hinting at a compromise with the eu. matteo selby signaled a new willingness to alter the government target. while sticking to the spending plan, he told reporters the deficit was not set in stone. brussels said the budget breaks eu spending rules. closefficials temporarily the border crossing between tijuana and san diego, one of the busiest in the world. they reported security forces fired tear gas at migrants after some tried to breach the fence. 8200 migrants are now in a caravan and mexico. president trump threatened to shut down the border in mexico,
threateningly full force -- lethal force if necessary. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. kong, debra mao in hong thank you so much. theresa may is urging lawmakers to embrace her brexit plans. the prime minister announced parliament will hold a decisive vote to hold or vote before christmas, after eu leaders finally signed off on the agreement. challenges lie ahead as the block warned there will be no renegotiations. >> before christmas, mp's will vote on this deal. it will be one of the most significant votes parliament has held for many years. it will depend on whether we move forward together on a brighter future, or open the door to get more division and uncertainty. >> i'm inviting those who have to rectify the deal in the house of commons to take this into consideration. this is the best thing possible for britain.
this is the best thing possible for europe. this is the only deal possible. >> the agreement must now be ratified, this time for everybody, everybody to take responsibility. today's agreement will help create a trust and confidence needed for negotiating our close and unprecedented future relationship. nejra: joining us now is a senior economist, guest host for the hour. good morning. you put a very low probability of a no deal or hard brexit, but the parliamentary max doesn't really stack up your argument. why do you stand by that view that we are still going to get a sensible deal and a soft brexit? guest: good question. now, we see theresa may looking for the hard sale to go for the hard brexit. that looks difficult. it doesn't look in her favor.
they have two weeks to convince what is two thirds majority pro-eu parliament to back her deal. it may take two goes. you may even get tinkering around the deals but eventually the base case is the two thirds majority will come through and in the end, weather may gets her deal through, they do you look -- u.k. will avoid a hard brexit. it can only happen by accident. that two thirds pro-eu majority in parliament will have to sit on its hands for the last five months as the u.k. rolls off the cliff edge. i find that very hard to believe. manus: interesting you suggest they might get a second go at the vote. certainly if you listen to juncker, there was no door left open. you think there might be an opportunity for local room. momentrd brexit as big a
as a lehman's going bust? kallum: for the u.k. yes, for everyone else, no. nejra: why? manus: what would be the ramifications of that kind of moment for the u.k.? is 120 of law or is it lower? kallum: i think it's hard to pick where sterling ends. we could be looking at parity levels against the euro, probably not quite against the dollar. when i think about a hard brexit, is materially different from voting to leave the eu because the world changes on that day. you suddenly live in a new environment. moreover, markets anticipate, firms anticipate, households anticipate that this will be bad. the mere expectation that something can go wrong influences behavior. in the early days, you would expect central banks, the fed, the ecb, the bank of england, to
provide liquidity to the markets, simply just to calm the panic. thereafter, you would probably see stagnation and economic growth in the eurozone for a quarter or two. the u.k. would be looking at something worse. i would be surprised if anything sinister were to happen today in emerging markets or the u.s. as a result of hard brexit. nejra: in the comments, according to people familiar, mark carney said if we have a no deal brexit, rates could go higher because of inflation from a weaker sterling. what will be the bank of england's reaction function if we get a no deal, in your view? kallum: the first thing the central bank will do is calm the panic in markets, say we will provide all the you quiddity desk liquidity you need. -- all the liquidity you need. they will begin to hike interest rates simply because the demand side would be worse than the
supplied side shock in the short-term, which would open up spare capacity and lead to lower inflationary pressure. initially, the bank would deal with higher import prices, sterling would be weaker. but the domestic would be lower. i see the bank of england public cut. -- probably cut. manus: a lot more to get to. we are getting some feedback on the brexit story. the two thirds majority callum talked about, the point about it is, we've actually pulled out of europe. any referendum needs to be, do you want to enjoy -- rejoin the eu? going to bringe you are exclusive it you -- interview with saudi aramco ceo. and if you are traveling to , switch off nejra and i
nejra: oil trouncing in today's session, both brent and cpi in a bear market. we saw a plunge on friday. of course, trading below 51 on cpi. brent dropped below 60. the stock selloff taking a pause, msci pacific index on the front foot, hang seng the best performing on the major indices. manus: a little more risk on as you see equity markets, dollar-yen. this is lighter, the biggest currency loser in asia. it was the third worse in the s&p 500 since 1939. i wasn't even around in a can 39. down nearly -- in 1939. 4%. nearly
how is the market positioned? my last guest said agnostic late. let's get to debra mao in hong kong the business flash. debra: noble group has one a couple of weeks of breathing room. they extended a deadline to december 11. the company says authorities in singapore extended a waiver allowing extensions. the trader survival plant was thrown into jeopardy when the country announced the three agency probe into the account. british airways owner iag is preparing a bid for u.k. based airlines fly be according to the sunday telegraph. the atlantic confirmed it's also considering a bid. this could be the latest move in ongoing rivalries between the iag had an virgin owner richard branson. financier joe blows presence a
board meeting would erase the official report. they said it was done at the request of the printable secretary. wasappened before a report presented in 2016. the malaysian anticorruption commission said it started an investigation into the matter. that's your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much. now, axis of interview. interview.sive this as it seeks to profit from the fastest-growing part of the oil industry. you also address the uncertainty around the business' ipo, but he dodged the issue after the scandals running the death of journalist jamal khashoggi. the man is healthy. we're looking at between 1.3 and
1.4 this year of additional demand. next year will be also the same in terms of additional demand. we're crossing hundred million dollars. there's a lot of demand in our industry. we're not looking only at oil. we're looking also at gas, lng, chemicals. so there's a lot of growth potential for saudi aramco as we try to balance our upstream and downstream. so, a lot of growth potential. yousef: it's been delayed a couple of times now. firm?2021, are the dates guest: first of all, his royal highness the crown sprints -- crown prince highlighted earlier we are committed for the ivo,
the excellency, also said that we are committed to the ivo. so the government is committed to the ipo for sure. it is about timing. now, the talk before, the discussion before that, the ipo would have happened -- yousef: second half of 2018. guest: second half of 2018. in the first half of 2018, we talk a little about the acquisition of major stake in public investment fund. and these two cannot go concurrently. you'renot list hwilwhile going through a major acquisition. the acquisition makes a lot of sense for us and we need to do it right now because the strategy of shifting from 2 million to 3 million barrels of crude chemicals. yousef: the king has taken steps to bring in investors. the recent murder of jamal
khashoggi dampened sentiment. what is your meds -- message to foreign investors? guest: i think there's a lot of investment that's coming into the kingdom. during the fii, we found $4 billion worth of investment with our partners. tomorrow you will be attending the program for. and we are finding more than 30 deals worth $27 billion. comeu put the two together up more than $60 billion of that wet in investment will find between us and our partners. yousef: you're not worried about longer-term damage from the murder of the journalist? guest: you will see tomorrow, hopefully to the kingdom, more than 3000 participants. more than 150 ceo's from the kingdom and out of kingdom.
manus: my cohost yousef gamal el-din speaking exclusively to the president in saudi arabia. get your energy boots on. peakill crude's 2018 price the scene again? you can join the debate if youi''re a customer. go to your ib plus tv . allum, what were they on a couple of weeks ago? tequila? kallum: we would have to get a combination of the economic cycle becoming very, very hot indeed, much hotter than 2017 when we had global sigrid as growth, and it's something -- syncronized growth, and something that had --
some political risks in conjunction with strong global demand. in 2018, and a high risk climate, you see soft demand. i don't think in this cycle we will get to $100 oil. $85 is probably possible, but we would need unusual circumstances. i see it moving sideways, maybe up. nejra: massive rebound or slow ride? kallum: slow ride. i don't see anything in the data that leads me to think things will get really bad year. second, we would see a big acceleration and economic growth. probably looking for solid growth in the u.s. and europe getting above trend. probably not for jumping oil. nejra: kallum pickering stays with us. today, we're also live from climate financed a in paris. we's big to the finance minister
nejra: asian equity markets starting the week with a nice list. u.s. stocks dropped into a correction on friday. the msci pacific asia index higher. strong rally in the hang seng, rallying almost 2%. some weakness in chinese equities coming through. we had breaking news this hour on greek banks. manus: we have indeed. this is euro bank, has done a deal for valley a. they announced and recommended a merger. euro bank hoped to secure 7 billion euros of bad loans after that merger with prevailing. a greenville you desperately
-- great volley a -- grivalia. last week, greece announcing they were going to try to create a special purpose vehicle for bad loans on the bank's balance sheet. they were going to transfer 40 billion euros of bad loans into this special purpose vehicle. so from my reading, this is the beginning of potentially a move that may take place in greece, nonperforming loans in the breaking sector. you've got a little bit of breaking news on nissan. nejra: after carlos ghosn's arrest, nissan is rebalancing its bid to readdress its balance. this is according to people familiar. bloomberg reporting nissan is reporting to limit the power of partner and top shareholder bruno to nominate officials to its board. the mitsubishi motors board is
set to vote on carlos ghosn as chairman. and the nissan alliance meeting in amsterdam as those tensions continue to simmer. manus: let's get into the markets a little bit more. we've got the team standing by. we've got our team in him by and in london, annmarie hordern. indian markets started off well, but tapered off after a long weekend. we've got the drop in crude. how is it looking? >> manus, good morning and you are right. despite the fall in crude prices, somehow that's not getting the respire in market because it started well and came off. on theade completely benchmark as well as the bank. the currency started off really
72.3, so it's cooled off and trading at 70.66, flat for the indian rupee in line for what the equity markets are doing. once busy need to watch out for in india -- one space you need to watch out for india is technology. the index is below the 200 day moving average, which hasn't happened in a long time. have corrected almost 18-20% from the recent highs. this is one pocket if you're in the market march or that you should watch out for. nejra: thanks. anne-marie, you're looking at oil's seven weeks of losses hitting its lowest in a year. what is the hedge fund positioning looking like? annmarie: i'm looking at hedge fund positioning here on the bottom as well as another shift in the market, potentially on
the edge. let's start with the top first. backward,can see buyers were willing to pay more. the delivery date of crude. now they are willing to pay much less. that's why we're at 0%. if this drops below, we'll be negative sentiment in the market. with the hedge funds are saying, we have net positions, the difference between bullets and that's, -- bets, hitting the lowest since 2016. it's an important day for wti hedge fund. they weren't due friday due to the thanksgiving holiday, but these charts show the shift in sentiment in the oil market. moving on, in treasuries, rbs said it's fixation on the 3% level is back in the game and potentially could drop below
that. while investors and traders were obsessed on the way out, there open on the way down. they are talking about a double tap, showing it was a key level. now if it were to fall, it could amplify and go to 2.87%. this is what rbc was saying. interesting to see the 3% level will be back in the mix when people talk about treasury yields. manus: thank you very much, nira annmarie. that takes us to the question of the day. when will crude 2018 price of the back at a peak? the mliv team is standing by. i.t. plus tv on your bloomberg. let's get your number first word news. debra mao is in hong kong. debra? debra: russia has fired on ukrainian warships, capturing three and injuring some of their
crew. this marks a dramatic renewal of tensions between the ex-soviet neighbors. the incident occurred off crimea, the peninsula russia annexed for years ago. it has earlier cut off access to the straight for security reasons. the united nations security council will hold an emergency meeting later today in new york. theresa may is urging u.k. lawmakers to embrace her brexit plan. parliament will hold a decisive vote whether to accept or reject the deal before christmas, this after eu leaders signed off on the agreement over the weekend but warned there was no "plan b" if mps reject of the accord. >> this is the best deal possible for britain. this is the best deal possible for europe. this is the only deal possible. debra: saudi aramco says it
remains committed to an ipo and the only question now is timing. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, they said the saudi oil giant is committed to an oil stake and the two cannot happen at the same time. aramco has been hurt by falling oil prices, but it's essential to attempts to diversify its economy. >> these two cannot go concurrently. you cannot list while you're going through a major acquisition. the acquisition makes a lot of sense for us and we need to do it right now because we've got the strategy of shifting from 2 million to 3 million barrels of crude to chemical.
debra: taiwan's china party has won big in the local elections this weekend. they defeated the democratic progressive party. it gives them over a year to win public support, or risk going down as the nation's first one term president. italy hinting at a compromise with the eu. matteo salvini signaled a new willingness to alter the government target. while sticking to the spending plan, he told reporters the deficit was not set in stone. brussels said the budget breaks eu spending rules. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. here. i'll take it from they are likely to vote tuesday on government procurement. the bank of england of which is financial stability report and full results of the stress test of major u.k. banks. that might take a new twist and turn on some brexit assumptions. also, the bank of england delivers its independent assessment of brexit pack -- impact on the system, the broader u.k. economy. what would it be like living under a backstop deal, wto deal? and the analytics have been floated earlier. friday, the g20, they're going
to be talking in one is eris. erisen is eris -- one is -- when is eris. this could be a week for trade tensions. nejra: they could be a pivotal week for oil as discussions could happen at the g20, as well with leaders of the two biggest oil-producing countries there, as well. markets are bucking the downward trend with asian stocks gaining and u.s. pointing higher. oil is heading higher, including it's holdingd stubbornly above 3%. let's bring in the senior economist. with the selloffs we've seen in equity markets in credit, as well, the gyrations in the
market, is this going to simply extend the current cycle or is it going to cut it short? niraj: it's likely to extend the current cycle. theydon't die of old age need a correction. i don't see these excesses that would lead me to think this market event would be a major economic event, which means more likely than not, this selloff in markets is not telling me the economy is soft. it's just telling me there are risks to be careful of. i would expect the market to follow. i'm putting together the recession risk chart, the recession possibility forecast. this is specifically in the notice rates of america. the reason i bring it to you for a question, if history is anything to go by, 2009, 49 of
the recessions were predicted correctly the year before. go back to the 1990's and only two of the 60 that happened were anticipated the year before. are we under assuming the risk of a potential dramatic slowdown in the united states, 2019-2020? very, veryuld be surprised if we had a major slowdown. the only thing that would trigger it in my view would be a political accident. the underlying fundamentals still look good. yes, the fiscal stimulus will wear off. the fed will probably hike a few more times, which may restrain credit after the margin, but the underlying fundamentals rising employment still strong, business confidence point to sustained gains in the u.s. and elsewhere. nejra: when we talk about the
fed's reaction function, people of the act times when the fed responded to the markets. we can go back to greenspan and the naki, but recently, we can look at the debt ceiling standoff in 2011, the taper tantrum of 2018, and the slow motion lift off of 2014 and 2015. i want to show you the chart to show you how few stocks trade above the 200 day moving average, where it's something like 37% at the moment. what i want to point to is that this is the lowest 2016, not the lowest since 2008. same with credit spreads. they've widened to the highest 2016. in terms of past reaction functions, what could the fed be most similar to this time around given the context of where the markets are? niraj: i think we are in late 2015 territory, where the market is very nervous, oil price is falling. that seems to be signaling an
underlying weakness in demand. butave a problem in china the week oil price in 2015 was the cursor to the strongest spender in 2016. the oil of why european growth was weak in q3. next year, i would expect stimulus in china to start building momentum, stronger economic growth in europe, and strong growth in the u.s. if the federal reserve was genuinely worried, let's say the equity markets could cause balance sheet problems on the corporate side, it could step back. you don't have the wage and price inflation that leads the fed's the thing we need to create unemployment to stabilize the cycle. so the fed hikes in december and
as markets settle into the new year, and continues to hike maybe once or twice, than wait. rates will be with the fed thinks it should be in the long run. we'll see how it goes from there. manus: just very briefly, i wonder the probability of hikes for 2019. have we overpriced probability? i suppose that is the question. we stepped into pause. maybe the better question, is there a lower terminal rate than we possibly anticipated? kallum: that depends on how the u.s. comes out on the other side. there are two factors in the u.s. economy, lifting gdp growth. the first is the demand-side stimulus. then there's the supply-side reform. we won't know until the fiscal stimulus wears off where potential growth really is, and that will dictate where the long-term equilibrium interest rate is. as i see u.s. rates, i don't think there's monetary tightening going on. if the fed can get rates 3.25
what'slet's check in on trending across the bloomberg universe. on tictoc, the amazon rain forest is being destroyed at its highest rate in a decade as the pressure of illegal logging continues rising. manus: theresa may tries to sell her brexit deal to skeptical politicians with a warning there is not a better deal available to be she's taking it street to the people, hasn't she?
nejra: and it to lawmakers. the next few weeks are going to be tense. tensions are reuniting -- reigniting and crimea after russia fires on warships. and a bitcoin tumble rivals its worst ever bear market. let's get a bloomberg business flash. debra mao has that in hong kong. debra: noble group has one a couple of weeks of reading room. -- breathing room. they extended their deadline. authorities in singapore extended a waiver allowing the extension. the plan was thought into jeopardy when the country announced a three agency probe into its accounts. british airways owner iag is preparing a bid for flybe according to the telegraph. this would pit them against a virgin a land -- virgin atlantic.
the process would be the latest move in the ongoing rivalry between iag and virgin. financier joe's presence at a board meeting was erased from an official report. the auditor general says it was done at the request of the former prime minister. it happened before the report was presented to a committee in 2016. the malaysian anticorruption division said it started an investigation into the matter. that's your bloomberg business flash. nissan is preparing for a battle of control over their partnership. after the ceo reportedly called the alliance unequal. bruno le maire said he and his japanese counterpart agreed the current agreement was preferable to anything else. the third company in the alliance, mitsubishi, is due to
hold a board meeting in 40 minutes on carlos ghosn's future. joining us in tokyo is dave mccombs. good to see you. what is at stake for mitsubishi motors in today's vote? dave: among the partners of this three-way alliance, they have the most at stake as a company simply because if that alliance. part, that would have the hardest time surviving independently. this company has not only that, but in general, the whole issue is coming to a head now with leaks coming out about what specific allegations are. one thing to keep in mind, the cfo of nissan is on the mitsubishi board. he will be at that meeting. it's fair to assume he will be presenting the allegations to the other board members, at which time they will consider what to do. it seems unlikely they would not
follow in nissan's footsteps. that would be a real shock to the system if that happened. still, they may have more to say. they may have specific information that would come out about the nature of the allegations. the longer this drags on, the less explicable it becomes in some cases because the allegations still have not been made clear about which laws were broken in this case. manus: yeah, look, this is a spider's web. we've got cross holdings, as well. to what extent does nissan's control of mitsubishi motors, how is that going to play into the question of ghosn's fate as chairman? you've run the data, 34% of mitsubishi? and rental owns 43% of nissan. how to the crossings play in? dave: exactly.
the best way to look at that is not just the shareholdings. as you mentioned, nissan does have 34% to control, but they have two members on the board, including the cfo. the cfo of nissan is on the mitsubishi board. i think they do have nominal control of this company. that's the way they've been operating. it is a japan-based company. they have been integrated as companies in terms of the lineup of vehicles, etc. i think mitsubishi, i'm sorry nissan should be exerting control into the outcome. you don't see much of renault even though they don't have the -- they have stake in nissan, they don't have direct stake in mitsubishi motors itself. they would not be able to play a card here. one of the things mildly surprising to some is that in the nissan vote to oust ghosn, the two board members voted in
favor of ousting him. it's not clear how this could come out, but it seems likely it will definitely go in nissan's favor. manus: okay, dave, thank you very much, the very latest on carlos ghosn. discussion with nissan. let's turn our attention back to europe because the question is this. is more stimulus needed to overcome europe's fragile economic outlook? how fragile is it? that's the central question for mario draghi as he testifies to parliament today. the ecb, their convention is to cut the bond program. issues for the economic block include germany's contraction and a standoff in italy. what is the truth of the numbers? kallum pickering is a senior economy at the number crunching industry. i asked you in the break, how concerned are you about the
german -- we can the i have to view later on. can you justify a way, stagnation in germany and the slow down in italy? germany,he slowdown in the q3 number was very bad, 0.2 down a quarter, largely due to three factors. you have a big drop in exports to turkey, and you have the regulatory related issues in the car sector. i expect a rebound in q4 around oakland for, probably in mind -- 0.4, broadly in mind. it is not something that will cause a major problem soon. we'll have to wait until the next crisis when that exposes italy's we can alliance growth. it's that fiscal policy measures. what we're of serving is the maximum point of divergent between u.s. growth and next
year we will see growth again. nejra: research says most of the work to the eurozone is external. we've also written about china slowing. kallum: eurozone is vulnerable to a slow down in china in one significant way. u.s., isore than the exposed to global trade. a slowdown in china would impact emerging markets. but i think next year, we're going to worry a lot less about china. for now, they're trying monetary stimulus. it's probably not working as well as they like. we know three things. they can afford to deal with each the problem so we expect them to deal with it next year. manus: let's see what this meeting between president xi and the president brings. great hour with nejra and myself, senior economist.
nejra: --manus: good morning from dubai. nejra: these are today's top stories. manus: good luck theresa. eu leaders keep their fingers crossed. there will be no renegotiations. will she convince u.k. lawmakers to back her brexit deal? aramco's m&a ambitions. invest $500 billion in acquisitions over the next 10 years. speaking to bloomberg, the ceo said the long-awaited ipo had not been called off. >> we are committed to the ipo.
it is about timing. manus: the stock selloff takes a breather. in the fed speakers -- will they give the markets reassuring signals? nejra: good morning. yesterday the eu 27 took less than 40 minutes to approve theresa may's brexit agreement. the next step will be a vote in parliament. the prime minister said a decisive vote will happen before christmas. anna edwards is outside parliament. good morning. will prime minister may get her deal through parliament? anna: one of the big questions
for the weeks ahead. good morning to you. she will be addressing parliament later on today making her case trying to convince mps to back her and her zeal for brexit. she says his mps do not back her, it would back -- it would be back to square one. 325 is what she needs. she relies on the cu p to give her 10 of those. when they had their conference, they do not like the vote. have heard from her own mps on twitter and elsewhere talking about how they will not back the deals. markets are starting to ask whether it will take more than one vote to get them through the house of commons. frankly, from here all roads still remain open. can we end up with a second referendum? could we end up with a general election and an extension for the negotiations?
many many questions as we had not just toward march, but before that. christmas. certainly ramrod it a lot of bad outcomes into one scenario. let's take it to brussels. maria, you are on the ground there. i watched this news conference yesterday. the language was emphatic from younger and barnier -- junker and barnier. what do you reckon? >> the message yesterday was this has been in the making for 17 months. 600 pages. the european union has always said brexit cannot be success. everyone was shocked when the u.k. decided to vote to leave the european union. the general sense here yesterday
was that this is the best outcome out of a bad situation. there are going to be no more concessions. this is the deal. the head of the european commission said britain should be smart enough and wise enough to accept that this is the final deal when it comes to the u.k.. it is up to london to decide. anna edwards in westminster and maria tadeo in brussels. we are just under an hour away from the european equity market open. we have seen $3 trillion wiped off u.s. equity markets since the september peak. we saw the s&p 500 fallen to a correction on friday. u.s. futures are pointing higher and on friday we did see the .toxx 600 close 0.4% higher energy stocks were the worst they did notut
provide that same drag in as they did in the u.s.. seeings like we could be a second day of gains. ftse futures higher by 0.5 percent. dax in cac 40 futures higher by the same. >> let's check on the bond markets. mario draghi will address parliament. you help also got this run-up to the next european central bank meeting. probably the last inflation reading before december 13 meeting at the end of this week. draghi testified in parliament today. you're looking at -- there is a lovely story. salvini says there is no one fixated on a budget deficit target. 2.4% they put forward, they said there is no plan b.
there is a budget, it could be 2.2%, it could be 2.6%. is at the wiggle room the market wanted? at 2.3%, it failed. are you going to see more aggressive bond buying going into 2019? juliette saly has your very latest on the market in asia. how are we finishing up today? >> it looks like on the world map is it -- it is a little more positive. rallying. still around an hour straight left to go. korea was also higher along with india. the csi 300 down 0.1%. australia was hit by weaker commodity prices so it was the underperformer.
part of the reason for the strength behind the nikkei today was of course japanese yen weakness. ofcan have a look at some those currencies. the yen has been falling against the dollar down by 0.2%. it is really to do with equity strength. the care and recover after falling earlier in the session. new zealand retail sales were flat. estimates of a gain of 1%. you are seeing volatility high on the one-month, the rupiah the strongest performer in asia at 0.4%. morgan stanley saying over the weekend the bear market is over for emerging markets fixed income assets. thank you so much. now let's head out to hong kong at the bloomberg first word news. -- and get the bloomberg first word news. warships captured
and crew injured. a dramatic renewal of tensions between x soviet neighbors. the peninsula that russia annexed over four years ago. it has cut off access to the strait for security reasons. the un security council will hold an emergency meeting. saudi aramco says it remains committed to an ipo. the only question is timing. -- speaking to bloomberg, the ceo said the oil giant is committed to a majority stake in another company. a listing is deemed essential. saudi arabia's attempt to diversify its economy. >> these two cannot go. while we arest going to a major acquisition. that makes a lot of sense for us and we need to do it right now.
>> italy is hinting at a possible compromise with the eu. matteo salvini has signaled a new willingness to alter the government's deficit target while sticking to the populist coalitions broad spending plan, he told reporters the specific 2.4% deficit was not set in stone. budget breaksthe eu spending rules and might impose fines. temporarilyls closed a border crossing between tijuana and san diego, one of the busiest in the world. security forces fired several rounds of tear gas at migrants after some tried to breach the fence. authorities estimate migrants from the so-called caravan are now in mexico. president trump vowed to shut down the border using lethal force if necessary. global news, 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter
powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. manus: thank you very much. theresa may is urging u.k. lawmakers to embrace her version of brexit. the prime minister announced parliament would hold the decisive vote on whether to accept or reject the deal before christmas. they warned there will be no renegotiation. one thing is certain. this could be a preacher medically bad idea for the u.k. -- a pretty dramatically bad idea for the u.k. he said yes for the u.k., not for the world.
what would that mean for you at mmg? are you altering any of your positioning on the risk of a hard brexit? moment isinty at the possible and our portfolios have be positioned accordingly. it is a possibility we will see a cliff edge brexit. it is not my base case scenario. it would beargued difficult for theresa may to find a majority in parliament for her deal. i would argue it would be even more difficult to find a majority in parliament for a hard brexit. it is a possibility but it is more tail risk. >> let me show you this chart. you are seeing spreads widen on sterling credit and euro credit. last week with the brexit risk, which is different from back in may which had a limited effect
on sterling spreads. does this mean brexit is a more credit negative event than italy? what version of brexit we are going to get. a cliff edge scenario for brexit would be bad news, especially for financials having a high degree of integration for european financial institutions. the italian situation we have to be mindful of what could actually come out. it is a situation with many variables. we have seen underperformers in the investment rates base and the highest level of uncertainty is what's driving orchids at the moment. -- what is driving markets at the moment. i want to show you a chart, it talks about a lost decade in the u.k.. this is performance relative to germany. when you have is the u.k. before the global financial crisis, 5%
of gdp globally. we are now down to 3%. decade of growth in the united kingdom. not only brexit. brexit has added to this. can we survive a rising interest rate environment? how damaging what a rising rate environment the to the u.k.? >> what has been helping growth in the u.k. has been very loose monetary policy. it is then the question of when and if that gets around. brexit uncertainty puts the bank interestd in there right path under a lot of scrutiny. if we see a market friendly brexit, at that point it would for the bank of england to tighten monetary policy.
the argument would be the labor market is very tight. that would give the bank of england a lot of reasons to tighten rates. it would be very difficult if we see a harder version of brexit with -- what the bank of england try to defend the currency or would they be trying to support growth by keeping rates low? martinyou talked about -- about market uncertainty. in this environment, where would you be putting your money? >> it very much depends on your time horizon and your risk tolerance. if you have a more long-term investment, you could find quite appealing opportunities now in more risky assets because we have seen a meaningful repricing. we briefly touched on the subject of italy. if you look at telecom italia, the long dated euro denominated bonds are selling at a yield of 6%.
which for european corporate bonds is quite daunting even for a crossover name like telecom italia. if you have the stomach to tolerate volatility, you find opportunities there. manus: there you go. you mentioned you have got to have the stomach for a little bit of volatility. especially if you want to play with the politicians. stay with us. portfolio manager at m&g. coming up, another exclusive with a ceo. oil prices, where they are headed. if you're traveling to work, bear in mind you don't want to in the team, but you might have to leave. digital radio, we are live. ♪
manus: back to our top story. saudi aramco's ceo amin nasser discusses the oil giant plans to merge in an exclusive interview with my cohost on bloomberg daybreak middle east. >> we always look at the long-term. we never planned based on short term. far, demand is healthy. we are looking at between 1.3 and 1.4 this year on demand. same.ear it will be the we are crossing the 100 million barrels. there is a lot of healthy demand in our industry. we are not only looking at oil. we're also looking at gas and lng.
there is a lot of growth potential percent aramco as we are trying to balance upstream and downstream. a lot of growth potential. >> let's talk about one of the projects you are excited about. it is likely to be the biggest acquisition of its kind in the history of the kingdom of saudi arabia. you're considering a wide range of finance. including a bond issuance. when would you like to make the decision? >> we are in the middle of dilma --ng and doing doing due diligence with the public investment fund. completes we negotiations with the public investment fund, i would hope that will happen soon, we can progress to the next step which
is meeting the antitrust requirements. there is an antitrust .equirement before we can grow it also requires it in time for the close. >> making the rounds with some of the key analysts, you have -- theuisition of acquisition, which makes sense, you beef up your downstream divisions. does that make a downstream only listing a possibility? we are lookinge at integration more than anything else. both upstream is and downstream with more integration, much more integration blood value. -- will add value. it will be difficult to separate the two because they go together. what are we doing today? ,f you look at our assets
400,000 barrels, what did we do just recently? we are putting almost 10 million barrels to expand. we are basically putting billions of dollars to integrate -- basically you are looking at all of these assets. oil, basically we are looking at more integration. downstreamstream and , it will be able to -- the volatility him across the market. -- volatility in the markets. >> 2020, 2021, is that date now firm? or could happen sooner? >> we are committed for the ipo.
also -- saidy is we are committed to the ipo. the government is committed, for sure. it is about timing. before that, the ipo would have happened -- it would have happened 2018. in the first half of 2018 we talked about the acquisition of a major stick through public investment fund. these two cannot go conquer and. currently -- concurr ently.
the kingdom has taken a lot of steps to bring in foreign investors. the recent murder of jamal khashoggi has dampened investor sentiment. what is your message to foreign investors? >> there is a lot of investment coming into the kingdom. we signed a $54 billion worth of investment with our partners. tomorrow you will be attending our program, our forum. we are signing more than 30 deals worth $27 billion. ,f you put the two together more than $60 billion of agreements and investments signed between us and our partners. >> so you are not worried about longer-term damage from the murder of the journalist? >> you will see tomorrow.
the value, the kingdom will add participants, more than 150 ceos. 80 ceos from out of kingdom. nejra: today we are asking the question on mliv, when will crude's price peaked be seen again? , iv plus tv on your bloomberg. wolfgang, one of your calls is that you are finding u.s. breakevens interesting at the rates we are now with how much they have fallen. you are recommending that as a trade. does that mean you see oil bottoming out? mind inve to keep in order to keep inflation whatevens at these levels, the markets are telling us is oil continues to drop.
unrealistic.rather i think expecting a continuous decline doesn't strike me as very probable. breakevens at the five-year point where further out, it is a nice opportunity to get inflation protection at low cost. given environment where the labor market is going strong, having a protection against inflation is good to protect a portfolio. manus: thank you very much. it is about the protection game. a portfolio manager at m&g. bit of a you a little spike we saw in the price of btp's. this is the yields dropping across the curve. the yields are dropping as deputy prime minister indicates