tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg December 4, 2018 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
so looks like we might not get the rate hikes we were pricing for. those not just getting right hikes but we are seeing a flattening yield curve. scarlet: and there you have the closing bell. this is the end of a very long trading day on u.s. equities. at one point. caroline: we were the west -- worse than october -- s&p 500 since october. joe: i guess we can take that away that it was not one of the worst selloffs, but pretty brutal all around. nasdaq and i think that is worth highlighting we still see the carnage in those momentum names, some of the red-hot. today, so down 10% some of these over on tech stocks getting clobbered. small capsd we have on even more.
4.4% for the russell 2000. volume was kind of sluggish for most of the morning and pick up around midday. around 12 p.m. we also have brexit headlines come out. melting pot of technicals and fundamentals. beside deeper into the market action with our reporters. the s&paking a look at 500 pharma index. when everything is in the red, i want to know what is in the green. at one point, the index w as at a record high. it lost 1.3% but that is better than what we saw in the broader indices. their analysts published 2019 report. well in to do very democrats are trying to put -- reallydex and industry
has a good 2019. it a look at some of these stocks. johnson & johnson only off 1/10 of 1%. i want point, it was mostly green throughout the entire day. off but other generics much better than the general index. johnson & johnson had a study coming out that shows a combination of their drugs reducing the risk of progression or death and that is good news giving some of these generic stocks a boost. abigail: so much talk about the yield curve and possibility it might invert. as our guest was talking about, the belly of the curve is inverting in the 210 is not far away. this is a long-term chart of the s&p 500 in white and the 210 spread in blue. 11 basis points separating the two thing investors are not really willing to go out. that signals uncertainty around the near-term and possibility of recession.
ultimately, the likelihood of corporate profit declining. we have revisions for the downside in 2019, and stocks trade off of the corporate profit outlook. there is lots of talk of how the yield curve signals recession. in 2000, the yield curve went and inverted in january of 2000, the all-time high for the s&p 500 a couple of months later, and the big bear market. 2005, inrting back in the financial crisis did not happen until 2008. timing is tough, but there is little doubt with the 210 spread creeping toward a potential inversion. we have this area of volatility, congestion, similar to what we had in a smaller scale in 2008 and 2000. it may suggested could get bearish. romaine: think about this. in a year where interest rates were rising, bank stocks down on
the year. s&p 500 banking index down 7% on the year. down 14% from the hyatt hit in january. the kbw bank index falling 5% today. even some of the big-name banks like citibank, jpmorgan, wells fargo, down well over 4% or more. for goldmanference sachs -- from goldman sachs today that we got a lot of commentary at the bank executives. brian manahan talked about the flattening of the yield curve eroding revenue from your loans and make it harder for them to profit using short-term lending. not a good day for the banks. it will be interesting see how this shapes up for the rest of the year. scarlet: all 24 members within the kbw bank index was lower. only cme closing unchanged. still with us is darrell.
when you look at the sectors, you like financials because you see value there. >> you have a lot of financials trading below book value which, when you get to that value, and less you are entering an immediate recessionary environment, it is a great entry point. in 2019, thetwo best value plays are industrials and financials. as long as you get the fed not making a policy mistake and positive progress on trade, both of those risk premiums should shrink, pushing the stock price higher. joe: let's dive into the challenge for the fed. we have seen market volatility, but the data seems like it is fine. i think the fed does not want to look like they are beholden to financial markets. how do they avoid mistakes? that would be the one threat to your bank stocks. darrell: i think there is a munition for the fed to soften
the language, stance or perhaps take a more dovish stance. you have to look at some of the high degree cyclicals we are talking about. .omebuilders are in market autos are in a full bear market. oil is in a full bear market territory. that lessens the pressure to continue to have to raise rates to fight inflation. there is a path here, but it will be interesting to see come friday, we will east have 3.7% unemployment and a risk that you could take it down to 3.6%. we all know how tight the labor market is. pathed literally has a they can choose to take either way. caroline: you just mentioned how oil is something to be looking into in inflation. what about the oil market going forward? with the all today
curve flat. where do you see that going into the meeting for example -- into the vienna meeting for example? darrell: vienna will be key. the consensus is reduced supply by one million or 1,000,000.5 -- 1 million and a half. i think if you get a positive outcome out of vienna, you probably move into the 60, 65 range for oil. even the negative scenario out of the and i, you could hold the 50 level easily. of curve -- there is a lot supply demand construction -- destruction below 50. scarlet: you had mentioned industrials and financials for the value play, but they might take a while to play out. why not go overseas where there are sectors and markets even more bombed out -- bottomed out? darrell: if we look at the overall outlook, this time yesterday -- last year, the
three biggest raids were global sigrid nice recovery, short the u.s. dollar, long emerging markets. in three were proven wrong 2018. now, at 9.6 times forward estimates, we like emerging markets. you have only seen em get this cheap three times in the last 20 years. all three of them were good entry points for emerging markets. scarlet: is this including china? darrell: it can include china. opportunity in both valuation and growth opportunity lies in the south of asia, and the latin american countries. you could include china in those. caroline: china is something you have been looking at, the currency. joe: the chinese yuan having its two strongest days in a decade. when you think about the bull case for em, is it similar to bank stocks that it is premised on the fed not screwing up, or is it so cheap -- darrell: i think it is cheap
and it is also premised -- your biggest correlation on whether em does or not is the dollar next year. the other big play in em is you have interest-rate differential narrowing. we still think the boj and ecb move closer to a backing away of monetary policy easing path which nares they -- narrows the interest rate differential. scarlet: darrell, thank you so much. he likes financials, industrials, and em. we have breaking news from hewlett-packard enterprises. fourth-quarter net revenue of $7.9 billion beating estimates. -- wems of its forecast, should mention also bottom line is topping analyst estimates. in terms of the forecast, we see -- 151 to 161.1
the midpoint matches the average analyst estimate. now it seems to be good enough for a rise of 2% in after-hours trading. caroline: this is the software bit. scarlet: that does it for the closing bell and for me. romaine bostick is stepping in for "what'd you miss?" we will look at the ripple effects of the flattening yield curve. from new york, this is bloomberg.
red. the s&p 500 is having its worst day since october the 10th. the nasdaq is down by 3.8%. lukeore, let's bring in kawa. you are keeping an eye on the technical side of this equation on why we see such volume today. luke: yeah. i think if you want to bring this off as there is nothing new in terms of the news we got today, but as a study, you got to relatively hawkish -- and some unfavorable brexit headlines. we pushed below the 200 a moving average and all hack breaks loose -- heck breaks loose. joe: something you have been pointing out all day is that the trade truce narrative has holes in it. luke: the whole story of the year was divergent u.s. stocks
outperforming because of their immunity from the trade war. now, there is series out there that this selloff is about wall street saying what happens this weekend was absolutely nothing. ok then, why are em stocks outperforming by so much this week. today is the first time since february 23, 2009 that emerging markets have fallen at least 2% and beaten u.s. stocks by at least 1% relative resiliency is almost unheard said -- heralded. look at the russell. the weakness is in domestic focus. i don't know if it is a lingering unwind of the trade, the exact opposite of the narrative being sold in some circles, but what it should not have to do is that the russell is a little more vulnerable to rising short rates. one might think that backing
off, maybe it is a just -- maybe it is just a recession play. romaine: doesn't this give credence to the idea that the selloff in october and november and what we see today is much bigger than trade and is about fundamentals in the economy and fundamentals of the company echo luke: completely -- company? luke: completely. today's example of why it was , if you look at earnings estimates and other points, russell companies have a high share of firms that do not make money. s&p 500 earning estimates are still a sell rating and you have to believe there is room to go down more because the energy sector is priced for 20 plus percent. i'm not sure that will be realized if the crude price stays where it is now. caroline: volume is up a quarter compared to the 20 day average.
is that because tomorrow is a day off for the markets? luke: i think it has more to do with today turning into a meaningful day for the markets more so than tomorrow being a day off. also, today was a pretty good drip of news. a technicalak level, there will be talk of computer selling kicking into overdrive and the stoxx being run. joe: what is the flattening yield curve telling you -- stocks being overrun. joe: what is the flattening yield curve telling you? luke: it does not seem like the bond market is signaling the fed immediately has to reverse course and at stimulus to respond to an environment in which it is perceived that the unemployment rate will rise or earnings will fall. it does not appear that is the case right now. we will get to that point sometime, but look at the spread
between two's and three months. that is signaling the market expects tightening to continue for a little bit. romaine: when you look at volatility in equities and bonds market, why is it not more pronounced? we got up to 20 on the vix, but that is not like feel days up to 40. luke: i think the holiday a fact andeeping a lid on the vix getting extra day sucked out of this trading week also might have a bit of an impact. what i'm surprised about, to your point, rates of volatility. we need big swings in rates up and down -- we have seen big swings in rates up and down. swaps,look at the tenure vol.e's they have moved up a not to a point where rate volatility has caused a selloff in equities. caroline: we have been
discussing the big mixed messages. is the white house fighting a trade war or have they called a truce? president trump's habit of overstating success is affecting the markets. sean joins us from washington. we should perhaps have learned our lesson, right? >> wheeler said to be careful with the grand pronouncements that come out of the white house these days. generally, when we get a big announcement of a deal, you get a cycle of euphoria and what that dealers. something meaningful did happen on saturday night, at the dinner. two men looked at each other across the table and decided to at least take a pause from the trade war and donald trump pledged not to raise tariffs, but it is what he got in return, where this goes next, all of that is a huge amount of uncertainty. we're still struggling to fill in the details. joe: do we know or have any real
sense of what the white house's plan is to craft a trade deal in the next 90 days? >> no. i think that is the simple answer. what we do know is that the guy who has been put in charge of it, robert lighthizer, is probably the most methodical, media shy operator in this administration. he is the one person we have not heard from in the last 48 hours since the dinner. he was at the table and he is a guy who has spent more than a decade getting ready for this moment of negotiating with china. the president today said the first thing to figure out, is there a real deal there? that guy, the person determining robert. he was also the guy of the architect of the tariff policy as we heard from the president today.
he declared him a tariff man and is not afraid to go there either. mixed messages, but we should remember that there is a kind of process getting put here. at least from the white house or the u.s. end of things, the guy in charge is someone who is capable. joe: that is a good -- romaine: that is a good point. if robert lighthizer is in charge, what do we make of the other cooks in the kitchen who have may be thrown a wrench in previous talks including peter navarro? >> peter navarro and bob lighthizer get thrown into the same basket. they are two different characters. robert lighthizer has been an operator here in washington for decades. --served in the record it reagan administration, as a disciple of bob dole, served on the senate finance committee, has been a lawyer in town here for the steel industry. academic,rro is an
and if you look at his writings, a bit of an ideologue. it's not clear if he has the same pragmatic approach to policy as bob lighthizer. peter navarro is a huge and mirer, as he said in public, a bob lighthizer and he will be backing bob lighthizer. who willr is the guy be able to translate trump's vision into real policy. caroline: what are the other crows coming from president trump with the auto tariffs rolling back? we heard from some of the big players in european autos like bmw at the white house, did we learn anything in terms of that focus? luke: there are two different these is. one is trump talking about auto tariffs which are largely retaliatory that have hit u.s. exporters to china. the u.s. does not export a lot of cards to china and most of a does areoes -- cars it from european makers.
the second piece is, is this threat of national security tariffs akin to the steel and aluminum tariffs that he put into place? he is trying to use this leverage for talks. these things are all intertwined in that is one of the hard things. the administration is starting to get its head around this, but you need the eu and japan outside if you will take on china, and if you take on that, you better not be whacking some of their industrial champions like the big carmakers who happen to be big investors in the united states. caroline: a key concern going forward. a great wrapup of all things trade. thank you. coming up, another top story today. the u.k. prime minister battles to get her break the deal through with days left until the vote. it's not looking pretty. this is bloomberg. ♪
caroline: the rocky road to brexit. is making a plea for her deal. what ited them to think would say to the 52% to came out to vote, in many cases for the first time in decades. it is there to -- if their decision were ignored. what would it do to our politics? caroline: let's bring in our brexit reporter. emma, this seems to be falling on deaf ears. it's likely her deal will not go through. if the deal does not go through as it stands, suddenly the power is headed back to mp and not theresa may. emma: yes, there is a lot of
drama about theresa may being defeated on three occasions, even before we get into the debate on the brexit bill. it is a reminder of how nonexistent her majority is. dominic, who you may remember about your ago, he was the lead is back.r -- and is back. he has engineered an amendment which give parliament a huge say over what happens next if parliament votes down theresa may's break the deal as looks likely next week. hand, if the one margin reduces the likelihood of deal -- no deal, it increases the chances that may's vote to down and we see a softer brexit.
the big question is, how will fair this time next week when she puts the steel to parliament -- this deal to parliament. we don't know. joe: what was the contempt mode specifically about? -- vote specifically about? >> the government sought legal advice before signing the brexit deal. that legal advice traditionally is private. some of it has leaked and the suspicion is that the legal advisor said this is a terrible deal. opponents of the deal, they want to see the full legal advice, to help them argue their case that this is a terrible deal. the week, a precursor of advice was released but we will get a full thing. caroline: great roundup of a very long, drawnout, long day in parliament. emma, thank you from london.
mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. senators had a classified briefing from the central intelligence agency convincing them that the saudi crown prince played a role in jamal khashoggi's death with one describing the evidence as a smoking saw. the comment, a reference of reporters dismemberment after his killing. elizabeth warren had concerns about the nature of today's briefing. >> the idea [indiscernible] i think is fundamentally wrong. we need to hear from the cia and need to hear their intelligence. mark: rejecting president
trump's efforts, bob corker said if a jury were to consider a case against the crown prince, he would be convicted of murder "in 30 minutes." of theorney general district of columbia and maryland plan to file a subpoena seeking records from the trumpet organization, the irs, and dozens of other entities accusing donald trump from profiting off of the presidency. spendingge that this washington dc hotel amounts to gifts. indicatede department it plans to appeal to a higher court. mark carney is defending publication of banks worst case brexit scenarios. the scenarios were more extreme than the government. carney said they were useful. >> what you should take away from the worst case brexit
scenarios is that the u.k. banking system has a separate liquidity to be part of the solution and not part of the problem. mark: italian authorities say they dismantled the rebuild a press line of the mafia -- rebuild upper echelon of the mafia. and interior minister called the sweep and extraordinary operation. he said in a tweet they had dismantled the new coppola. officialsmichigan, say they are a year ahead of schedule in tackling a court order to deal with lead service lines as the city recovers from its contaminated water crisis. the natural resources defense council, part of a lawsuit over the issue, disputes that and says the city has not
prioritized homes most likely to have led and galvanized steel pipes. a landmark legal settlement reached last year calls for fully removing the lead pipes by the end of next year. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: ahead of today's market selloff, some key points from bloomberg television sounding off on another element rattling investors, the yield curve inversion. >> we are getting towards the end of a cycle. it's a long cycle, one of the longest we have had. sure of what ach flatten or inverted yield curve tells you. >> recession.
that is probably why we see the dollar coming under so much pressure today. monthsget 10 to 11 between the curve inversion in the peak of the s&p. that is one factor we look for to predict the risk of recession in the u.s.. recession risk grows higher in 2020 or 2021. report, do we expect low growth going forward? almost every economist seems to agree growth is slowing down. the question is, do asset tourns expectation have be scaled down for 2019. i think that is a possibility. romaine: let's continue the conversation with writer botta takata -- with brian. is this a repricing with
economic outlook or is it intertwined? >> if you look at the movement today, this was largely fed rate hike expectations changing in the markets. you saw massive rally in long data debt and part of that was traders being forced out of their short positions. today, you so odds of a rate hike or rate cut rather being price in 2020. that is new and markets were responding to that. don't have an inversion into 10 which is what we usually look at, the first one we usually look at. we got yesterday, the 35. much, are they precursors, or are they just kind of their? they are definitely things -- there? >> they are definitely things and precursors. i wrote yesterday it is a big deal and some people say this is a signal of doom. that is not exactly the case.
two tents fell below 10 basis points, but it's easy to forget it was 18 basis points a few months ago. you still have to see a bit more capitulation in the real long end before you signal actual recession six to 12 months down the road. the first inversion is assigned this can happen because we saw two your notes traded a higher rate than five your notes -- five your notes. caroline: this is a global theme -- five year notes. >> this is a global theme tending to happen whether it is in the u.k. or the u.s.. how much is this technically driven on the stock side of the question? katherine: you definitely saw some shops come out and say the fact that you saw the front end of the yield curve, 35, 25, that is more of a technical thing. it was followed up by huge move in the two tens curve. one of the most watched
indicators. it's hard to say whether this is technical or something more. romaine: when we talk about this inversion and spread, there are some folks saying it is more important to look at the shape of the curve a little more. that would be a better signal as to whether this is going toward some economic doom. brian: in general, there is a sense we have reached peak earnings. you have to look at corporate side. it can lead the future of growth. there is definitely a feeling of that, the question is, when do we see some sort of economic turn, and how does the fed play into all of this? will the fed stop, keep going, though too far? these are all questions -- go too far? these are all questions we don't know. it inl probably see december. i think this fed is locked into going in december. the fed positing traction. joe: we know the fed primarily
cares about data in the real economy, inflation, unemployment and probably pays attention to the stock market even though they would not say so, so what have people said about the shape of the look of itself and the degree to which a theoretical flattening would call them to back off? brian: you had fed williams, the day -- katherine: you had fed williams, today and save the u.s. economy is strong enough to warrant continue rate hike expectations. he is not concerned that much that the market is paring back rate hike odds. it will be interesting to see what policymakers have to say a few weeks from now. caroline: all ears and eyes on what is happening with the flattening. they key both for breaking it down. coming up, from washington to wall street. our next guest weighs in on the selloff in trade, google, and more. that is next. this is bloomberg.
caroline: kevin cirilli is a washington standing by with a special guest. >> we are here with the former ceo of hewlett-packard and a republican presidential candidate. the dow is tumbling almost 800 points. put on your ceo cap, what do you make of this? >> the thing i think the market has figured out and what concerns the market right now is trump is a lot of show but there is not a voice substance to back up the show. in north korea, we got a great deal, yet the substance has not been behind it.
these terror threats back-and-forth, a great dinner, great show, in the market rises on anticipation there is a truce. when you start looking at the fine print and announcements from china and the u.s., people say maybe there is not substance. kevin: i was struck by this earlier at the white house when the chairman auto ceos came out and i asked them are you worried about the additional threat of tariffs? they essentially said we will have to wait and see. is the wait-and-see approach working? carly: in business you would rather know, particularly with tariffs. the problem with tariffs, not only is it costing our own automakers $1 billion in a dditional costs, but china has an ability to hurt our own producers. they are hurting our farmers, pork and soybean -- kevin: intellectual property. carly: what tariffs do is raise
costs, lower growth, and cost jobs. when the president tweets today that i love tariffs, it makes people nervous. what can we do to protect silicon valley and delete electoral property -- and intellectual property? china deals -- steals intellectual property. we ought to be saying to china you are going to play by the same rules by our market that you force us to play in your market. that that means is, you can' invest or by companies without our governments position that's government's position. to get an agreement, enter the market in china, you have to invest in a chinese government approved company who then takes your intellectual property because you are a minority investor. we have let it go on for way too long. something has to change, but terrorists are not working and won't work.
kevin: when i covered tax reform, there was a clear push to get the bill passed. you being in the private sector, do you understand what exactly the end goal is with the u.s.-china trade talks? carly: i don't. i don't understand because the administration has not been clear what their end goal is. trump has been clear that he wants to do a deal with china that no one else can do, but he is not been clear about his goals for that the deal. that is problematic because no one can plant. kevin: you and i have something in common. a launche -- i launched the radio show this weekend and you have a new podcast, but this is on leadership. tell me about it. carly: it is a podcast called " by example." the reason it is important to lift leaders up is because the world is confused about
leadership. i think we think it is about title and position. there are famous people with titles and positions that do not lead. then, there are people that do lead. this outpouring of gratitude and respect for president bush. the reason for that is because whether people agreed with him or not, they knew he was a leader. they also knew he was a genuine public servant, a person who served the public. we use that phrase a lot and too isy times it means someone serving themselves, their ego, own agenda. he was a leader and a servant leader. are laudingpeople him. kevin: we appreciate your time and we will be covering the former president's funeral set for tomorrow at 11:00 eastern time at the national cathedral. join us for our special coverage of that. back to you.
caroline: kevin cirilli and carly, thank you. joe, to apple. joe: apple has lost about a fifth of its market value since the start of october on signs of waning ipo demand. suppliers tumble after forecasts. our applemore is reporter, mark gurman. we have been getting all kinds of evidence that troubles are mounting up for the iphone sales and this is appearing the stock. you reported something interesting which is that apple plelikeging in some un-ap efforts to boost sales. mark: that's right. this is something i've not seen for covering -- from covering the company 48-9 years now. they have a -- for 8-9 years
now. they have a banner advertising this phone. these are efforts that are unprecedented for a company that has positioned itself above the tactics -- these tactics. romaine: based on that, what are you able to devise when it comes to the positioning with regards to current sales of that model and where it is going? mark: combining that they do point with the points we are seeing from the supply chain, all these companies indicating their revenues are coming in below expectations because of maker" thate phone we can name. it seems like they are missing some expectations. the question is whose expectations, right? the expectations of suppliers, themselves, their customers, or analysts and investors in people following the company. we will not know the answer to
that's because they are stopping the reporting of unit sales numbers for the iphone. joe: what is the problem with iphone sales? is it the price per say? i talk to people and they say the prices a lot, but also they don't feel like they get any particular value from upgrading. he don't think of the new phones being that's much better than what they are using now. what is the reason or something economic? mark: this is the third time that apple has attempted making a lower and iphone. the first two times flopped. the iphone from 2013 was a disaster for the company. they over calculated how many of those they would sell. 2016e debuted in march of and that thing is already discontinued. , the idea was that you would get the iphone x features for $750.
it looks like consumers just want to hire and phone. when you think about it, that phone is much more expensive. this was supposed to bridge the gap. they had an iphone xs by custody hundred and hundred dollars -- if they had an iphone costed 800, 900 dollars, i think we would have a different conversation. caroline: where do they go if they cannot sustain the growth in the iphone? they talked about services. where will this company get its next leg up? mark: they are working on several new initiatives like self driving car technology, new versions of the apple watch, health centers, all the services and augmented in virtual reality -- and virtual reality. the bad news, it does not sound like right now there is anything in the pipeline that will replace the success, massive success the iphone has had over the last decade.
we had a part in our story today indicating the iphone was at a it low and that meant generated more money for apple than google, and walt disney generated altogether combined themselves over the same period of 20. i don't see another product -- 2018. i don't see another product exceeding those sales. they will have to come out with several new product lines, things that work around the i phoned and a sales dip -- iphones, and as iphone sales dip a little bit, maybe it will add up to something bigger. romaine: what happened to a are? i thought that was -- ar? i thought that was supposed to be the next big thing. mark: they have been talking about that more than anything, but in the last few of their conferences and earnings calls, they have reduced the amount of time referring to ar. they have been talking it up since 2016. an have the animal gees --
imogis, but there new news is going to be the headset around 2020. that product is not have consumer demand as of yet. that could change with the apple brand. caroline: it just doesn't cut it. thank you mark gurman -- thank you, mark gurman. trade sparks a selloff in the u.s. and will continue in the asian markets. that is next on asia ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
realization that maybe they did not agree to anything. one area that has stood out is the chinese yuan of strongly two days in a row for its biggest today gang in a decade -- gain in a decade. what is that mean? shery: there is optimism because we have seen so much volatility with the chinese yuan. charts on the bloomberg showing after we got some positive news on the trade front, there was implied realize volatility taking a dive. that you with the yuan had to consider is that what happened with trade tensions but also with the pboc. we had heard all of this news coming on the trade front and we saw reports that the pboc would be more flexible on monetary policy. a lot of people took it to mean that could mean interest rate cuts. romaine: what about chinese equities? they are starting to do better, and analysts are getting back into them. shery: it is surprising because you saw all of the markets in asia fall and he saw the hound
thing index -- and sing index -- sing index raise. thehe end of the day, it question is can you stall the volatility. compared to the s&p 500 index because of a weaker dollar, we seeing more positivity on emerging markets. caroline: a hunt for a haven that is the end. shery: yes, the japanese yuan gaining the most since july this year and a does not bode well for exporters into an -- in japan. caroline: we will have plenty more analysis across your show on "bloomberg daybreak: asia". u.s. markets are closed tomorrow as george h.w. bush is laid to rest. we will have special coverage of the funeral for the 41st