tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg December 12, 2018 2:30am-4:00am EST
the bank confirms it will buy $3 billion worth of shares over the next two years. trade tensions, canada freeze o unveil.i cf yuanh you one -- the headed for its best month ever, but how will long will it last? half an hour from the start of european trading. take a look at the positive move in equity index futures this morning. futures up a third of a percent. more earliern up today. big gains in u.s. futures as well. slashing of card
tariffs in china. we could see another pickup. let's take another look at treasuries. raise rates att all in 2019 and 20 night -- 2020. yields, 2.89%. this is a three day chart. backup toward the 3% level. two stories written large. one is trade, what is happening with the central bank in india. equity indices in the asian session doing well. u.s. futures positive. all of that has to do with the news. the most positive, canada announcing bail for the cfo of
huawei. trump saying he might intervene if it helps him with trade purposes. we saw a big swing. we are hooked on the steady flow of trade data. green box. big appetite for currency. changes at the central bank. , appointed asster the new central bank chief. disagreementthat between the indian government and the central bank. we will see what the new man does pe. we mentioned credit suisse has faced a stock buyback of $3 billion to boost shares that have tumbled. the plans will be outlined later today. christie loquat is there --
christie loquat is there. joinedre delighted to be to talk to us about the release of investor data. thank you for giving us your time. what is your message? hard to getorked into this place. generating capital brings us to an announcement capital returning to shareholders. if you compute what we announced, the buyback of a billion. about 2.2 billion. conditions, you can expect $4.5 billion return to shareholders.
we always said if shareholders supported us, we would come to a returnhere we can capital. >> if they asked for more buyback, you could do it? announcedumbers were today. they are very prudent. we have discussions with a regulator for next year. it is reasonably safe. in life, i am not known for holding capital. any excess capital will be issued. >> talk to me about the headwinds, is it going to get worse? we had already been long into an extension. all our thinking has been about protecting the bank against the downside. we cut risk 40 or 50%.
60% of our business and investment bank. we have a much higher quality. higher profit. we feel we have done it at the right time. when utep about headwinds whenting global markets -- you talk about headwinds impacting global markets? >> global markets, 10%. we are discussing 10% of our profits. get to a position where variations affect marginally our position. you have seen corrections and shanghai.
that leads to lower activity. you have to step back. every time of markkula turbulence has been followed by some sort of rearrangement. investors are kind of wait and see. standthat, money cannot idle forever and the money comes back. you have to look through those turbulences. we are confident with growth in there, werospects will just support it with different products. more fx management. fx is doing very well. phases of the economic cycle, investors do different things. >> do you worry about europe because of brexit? , it has long been a
challenging place. we are very lucky because we are swiss. we have lived in worked and many countries. managed country i have lived in. debt to gdp is 42 percent. which seems unreal. extraordinary fiscal discipline. inflation is the lowest in europe. swiss franc get stronger. the economy is phenomenal. 2.2aid we are going to make billion-2.3 billion. we have had almost as much profit in two or three years as we have made in asia and a year. this is the golden nugget. switzerland will not be impacted. >> are you frustrated with the
share price? you have a bank that has been cleaned up from legacy. strong balance sheet, a don't sheet, the wealth management has been great. revenues in asia have been growing 15%. bit of scare. frankly, it is a different story. the growth story. we think it will be reflected in the results. no restructuring. something is misunderstood with a buying opportunity. is there a discount he could you are european bank? >> -- because you are a european bank? are restructuring unit
was bigger than i swiss bank. -- a a swiss bank. they wanted to see it effectively prevented. we definitely underperformed. plan toa very ambitious grow, to cut costs at the same time. that was very ambitious. you get the europe factor. european.ing as we have to keep explaining switzerland is not in the eurozone. it is not affected by what is going on in europe. all that plays a factor. inwe deliver and 2019 -- 2019, potential to lead to a
higher -- >> i have to cut you off because there has been a vote of no-confidence against theresa may. does that change her plans? >> -- your plans? only sensible thing to do. we are well versed in that respect. to spread our activity. frankfurt, paris, london, dublin. that is the sensible thing to do. a couple more questions on market volatility. now that you have done restructuring, how do you expect to grow the bank? asset sales? acquisitions? >> in 2015, we said global wealth will continue to grow. we have grown our revenue in line with that. that is going to continue. global markets would decline. it has declined.
it was right. total market, revenue growth, has continued to grow as expected. be proved.to >> any changes for 2019? path.tinue on the same $100 billion of investments. >> you are speaking of your targets. >> just confirming them. year, 11-12. >> thank you so much for your time. suisseys, the credit chief executive giving us time hefore he meets wit investors. anna: thank you, francine. the breaking news around brexit.
-- conservative party announcing there will be a vote of confidence in theresa may. it will take place tonight. he knew whether he had 38 -- 48 names. it seems she has that number. she needs to survive the vote. herwill be making that first aim. she is supposed to be in dublin. we will see whether she survives that vote this evening, more than half the party on her site. -- side. matt: we saw the pound is drop initially. we have seen it recover to some extent, back to 124.93, of movement on the pound from this headline. i think it was widely expected. had been a lot of talk about it. the pound had been dropping. dropping below 125 on this.
markets. 12 minutes away from the start of trading and we have just isten news the committee going to have a vote of no-confidence in their leader, theresa may. pound debt initially. it has come back a little bit but still under 125. what you make of this developing story? well has been amazing how sterling has actually traded. the news has been terrible. does look like the u.k. has gone down the worst possible path. tradingon the pound is relatively resilient, not on a 120 handle yet, investors are starting to believe there will be no brexit.
there is not the political will and the u.k. to follow through on a no deal brexit. i brexit with a deal is looking increasingly possible. we either go to a second where brexit is delayed, either a unilateral change of article 50 or a change of government which changes things. someone who would take a very different view. mp's can save brexit by removing may. we will see whether she survives this challenge. pound, around 125. reversal on the curve. one person's safety is another persons risky bet.
>> i think that is right. the other element, the idea you might have a labor government under corbin if the government falls. , with the budget deficits, yields rising. , requalify mysize earlier answer. the brexit looking likely. investors are looking like it looks likely. investors starting to believe that the brexit will not happen. i do not know whether that is the right way to perceive it, investors arew trading. there is no point trading these negative developments to aggressively. leadership challenge on theresa may, that should be a negative. that is why we only got a brief
dip. people are saying we have to avert the worst case outcome and turned toward something less drastic like a delay in the brexit timeline. >> let me ask you, can theresa survive this no-confidence vote? who will be likely to take her place? is every possibility she could survive this vote. what we are hearing from people in parliament and the press is a lot of the people who have written these letters are from the hard brexiteer side.
we know from what people have said in parliament there are a lot of lawmakers who are concerned about the idea and would do everything in their power to stop a new -- no deal path. there will be a lot of mp's when the vote takes place who want to support theresa may. they fear the other outcome could be no deal brexit. anna: the times newspaper go.rting she must no surprise if members of that group take that view. what do we make of reports it is not just the usual suspects calling for her to go? sense any on the remain side want her out? sense, the problem with brexit is not that there is
just one side that has a problem with her. dealsides do not find her satisfactory. it is entirely possible there are people on both sides who are unhappy with the leadership. the way she delays votes on monday. now she is going back again to brussels. she is doing a european tour. attempting to do a european tour. are beyond ahat cosmetic deal. she met with merkley. matt: i want to bring you back into this conversation. what we are talking about is the fact that the backbenchers come of the 1920 two committee has called a vote of no-confidence. ist you are saying is is it
march 29 will no longer be the brexit date. how do you think it can be pushed back? be pushed back and multiple ways. one is we can have a second referendum. there is no sign the current leadership wants to go down that route. makey does fall, it could a no deal brexit less likely. she is one of the people saying -- if we get another leader, they might interchange another referendum. several ways we can delay. delay the negotiating time. that can happen under the current government or a new government. can have a unilateral polling of article 50. if theyl only get away say, we're just delaying the
process. the market would take that as a massive sign of relief. you can see that in the pound. trading like at no deal brexit. it is trading relatively complacently given what we think the news is. anna: the process from here, the vote will take place this evening. evening, could go later. if she survives, she is safe for a year. clark's if she loses, the party will put forward two candidates. they would each select a candidate each. reveal the split in the tory party. it might be the case they have to choose to read would they be able to choose between a hard brexiteer and the remainder?
affect -- likely to oil will always have a strong effect on the markets. future games are down. we still have slight gains in dax futures. we are digesting the news about a no-confidence vote regarding brexit. what theresa may does in the next day will be crucial. headed into the start of trading. we see a positive start to the trading day. politics is in play. on than lots more going just the brexit vote. the trade story is the big story out of asia. canadiansen the
release on bail the cfo of while way. -- huawei. we continue to watch for this. oil pertaining higher can affect where we go with these markets. look at theking a imap on the bloomberg 500 index. are really seeing is gains, pretty much across the board, as far as the sectors are concerned. we see industrials with some red and consumer discretionary's with some red. health care care is the biggest loser. that is normally a good sign. is ther discretionary only one is showing red for the
entire subgroup. we see tech stocks and utilities leading the way. the latter two are also very defensive. are not doing much this morning. let's have a look at the individual movers. some of these headlines are making themselves felt across equity markets. you have the biggest gains on the stoxx 600. investors are trying to hold change in terms of the european business scene. we have a range of profits and cash a little bit tired this morning. let's go to the downside.
inditex is down by 5.5% this morning. the numbers look to be pretty good compared to the estimates. companiese of the that reported this in the oil space, down by 3%. andee the earnings season the activist investor news written barge. we may have indications and futures. ibex 35 down in madrid. pretty decent games, following the real gains we saw in asian markets overnight. president trump may intervene in the huawei case if necessary. let's get an update with our bloomberg senior reporter. what is the latest?
it has left a few people scratching their heads. this would send an interesting message to the chinese about the cool of law in the united states. don't really know exactly what it is that donald trump would do. he might intervene. looking at the way donald trump tries to get involved in transactional relationships, whether he can actually do it or not is a completely different question. >> thank you. joining us here on set, our guest. a very good morning to you.
movestalk about the big in markets. stocks in europe are up by 3/10 of a percent. u.s. futures point higher. anything more materially positive that you see on trade at the moment go >> where do we go from here on the negotiations between the united states and china? we are going to move to the next stage of negotiations. there will probably be a de-escalation of conflict. there is a 90 day delay for imposing further tariffs. there could be a decision not to impose any further tariffs. we are in a transition. on to the next stage of negotiations.
there is the protection of property rights. there is the protection of investor rights when they invest in china. the reason why this moved to that transition is very important. investor focus is on the conflict over trade as we move to the next stage. is this focus the reason we see u.s. stocks down year to date? we could see european stocks getting crushed as well. problem, do that you see stocks raising backup to higher levels? this has to be positive for global growth and global earnings.
the trump administration is now starting to agree with the terror of conflict. -- tariff conflict. your base case, do you buy u.s. or chinese stocks? the complicating factor is why in a year of record u.s. , record u.s. share return onwhy is the the s and p 500 is slightly negative? is theson for that federal reducing its balance sheet and raising interest rates. thank you very much. a quick check on u.k. assets. that theresaline may will make a statement later this morning. the headlines are coming through
from various members of the cabinet, expressing support for theresa may. the pound is fairly stable compared to the close. we will continue to follow this developing story. it really starts to kick up some steam. we will bring you stocks on the move that are not directly affected by brexit. one is resisting discount pressure. but will not make a sales target harder to reach? the stock is trading in madrid down 5.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪
missed analyst expectations. they have been trying to get rid of inventory. saying thisey is supports there underweight thesi s. elliott management is taking a stake in this company. to change public governance that will help boost profits. this may give investors confidence. shares are now trading at the highest price on record. -- rolls royce are forecasting on the upper side of their range and have gotten the approval to transfer some of their facilities to germany. thanks theresa may is facing a vote of no-confidence. . that vote will be tonight.
it may throw brexit into disarray, more than it already is. joining us now, is our news director. bob is still with us. take us off with what we know. ?s she going to win this vote this no-confidence vote has been threatened for so long. it is going to happen tonight. they do move rather fast when these things happen. is she going to get the vote to stay? 158 two when that vote. there has been enough people to trigger this.
the expectation is they don't have enough support to topple her. the last time we had one of these, people were not taking to twitter all morning. sense of theg a way this might go from twitter. thisuld be quite close at point. her cabinet is coming out in support of her. she will be making a statement soon. >> we heard that. there is talk that prime minister -- the prime minister wanted the confidence vote as soon as possible. penny is coming out and is saying the prime minister has
her. port. it will be interesting to your point. if she does survive, she is safe for 12 months. she cannot face another leadership contest if she wins. if they do get someone else in place, how would they change the brexit debate? there is nothing else to renegotiate. overnight volatility in the pound is shooting up, maybe not a surprise, given what has happened. what do you make of the pound? >> the volatility has been low, up until today. we are seeing a spike in volatility.
difficult, to get that 152 displace mrs. may. there is that uncertainty about what happens afterwards. it is inevitable that the volatility has risen. to 2017.harts back seenis the highest we have since the spike in the referendum. everybody has been taking a negative view of the political outcome and the uncertainties surrounding brexit. when you have such a large short risks arethe downside fairly limited. unexpectedat possible event, which could be
the general election jeremy corbyn victory. another type of confidence that we would be talking about if jeremy corbyn decided to declare no-confidence in the government. this is a big deal. for people who don't know exactly how parliament works, there are two kinds of no-confidence votes. this is the party asking whether they want to keep their leader or not. >> why doesn't -- >> they were going to do exactly that. he knows this is a very hard vote to get. if it came to the crunch of a confidence vote in the government as a whole, they would fall back in line with
mrs. may's conservative party. they look like they could actually win a vote in the public. jeremy corbyn backed away from that vote. >> we will see how this develops. if you cut through all of this confusion and uncertainty, there are two elements. parliament is much more empowered than it was. at how mps would vote on any brexit decision. it is very clear that the vast ajority of mps do not want disorderly brexit.
there is an emerging consensus among investors that if you cut through all of this uncertainty, the most likely outcome is quite a significant delay. that.will keep an eye on thank you very much. let's have a quick check of the markets. >> we see gains across the board. ireland is down right now. and -- in france. the import tariffs on cars is incredibly important.
going to call a vote of no-confidence in theresa may. we will know whether or not she survives that. i am flying to frankfurt for the ecb meeting. bob, we have been talking about this. they are not going to change policy. they are going to end qe. nothing has been more broadly telegraphed than this. big swings inome the euro and the spreads. the question and answer session is going to be interesting. fed, the ecbo the is ending qe. reinvesting in european bond markets next year.
they will also be reinvesting maturing bonds and its portfolio. the ecb balance sheet is expanding, slowly. i am going to go to the press conference. what should i ask mario draghi? has the third quarter economic data that was much weaker than expected. the german and the italian economy of contracted. french economic data was mediocre. >> no one can go shopping. the core inflation numbers remain weak.
numbersline inflation with commodity prices down will headline inflation. recovery and inflation picking up now has to be challenged. >> we have the pound rallying. we hear voice after voice from -- we will focus on the vote for theresa may's future as we go through the day. i have the chart for the spread. it has been moving. >> you have the political uncertainty.
how the government has responded to that unrest? it is taking a view that the fiscal policy needs to be expanded. it is very difficult to quantify at this stage. 2019, the french budget deficits will be very close to 3% gdp. it is close to the european union limit. there is not just pressure between brussels and rome. this is potentially between paris and brussels. >> the ecb may not be able to hike. to loosen fiscal policy. isn't that good for the euro? >> potentially. we could spend the early months of 2019 with the euro trading
>> let's get your top headlines. the future of theresa may hangs in the balance. she is due to speak outside downing street imminently. credit suisse buybacks. will repurchase billions of dollars of shares over the next two years. and it's trade tensions? --ada freeze the walkway cfo frees the huawei cfo on bail.
the you when headed for its best month of the year. how long will the rally continue? .his is the european open i am here alongside anna edwards in london. a look at where we are. this is the picture across the stoxx 600. let's focus on the big picture story around brexit. the stock is up by 7.2%. change.the management taking aanagement is stake in that company, asking for a change in governance. 2.6% --yce is up by 2.7%. we also have an update to the market.
inditex is down by 6.9%. and the troubled jewelry business, trading down this morning. and, another stock down by 3%. let's have a look at where we are on the individual movers of the stoxx 600. a lot to keep track of. theresa may is to face a vote throwing thence, u.k. into fresh turmoil. the lawmaker who runs the leadership process announced a vote will take place this evening. 48 members of parliament submitted eight vote of no-confidence in the u.k. prime
minister. wins, she cannot be challenged again for one year. for 6 p.m. scheduled to 8 p.m. today. of huawei has been released in vancouver. freedom on the conditions she surrender her passports. said he would be prepared to intervene in the case if it would help secure a trade deal with china. was involved in oval office confrontation with senior democrats. president trump said he would be proud to close down washington. want,we don't get what we i will shut down the government.
>> i have heard enough. down theroud to shut government for border security. >> three people have been killed and more than 10 wounded in a inoting at christmas market france. the suspect is considered to be at large. he is 29 years old. the european parliament building faced a lockdown. the indian prime minister has endured a dramatic 24 hours. defeatty faces electoral in three key states. seen as his biggest
setbacks since taking office. he often saw a rate cuts during his time at the finance ministry. he said investors can be rest assured. a lot of people are coming back to union markets in 2019. the country is looking at 7.5% going forward. the former malaysian prime minister has been charged over the tampering of state audits in the troubled 1mdb fund.
he is looking to protect himself from legal action. both men denied the charges. global news on air, 24 hours a day and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thank you. let's look at what is going on in u.k. politics. theresa may will be speaking shortly. she is expected to give a statement. we will bring it to you. the door is opening. we will bring you that speech. news director and our reporter joining us.
let's keep an eye on these pictures. this is happening very quickly. >> they like to get this over and done with very quickly. 48 no-confidence votes were reached last night. we will know the results of the secret ballot very quickly. how many votes does she need to stay? >> a clear majority. 158 is the magic number. >> for her to stay. >> that is right.
that is quite a big gap. mps need to0 more come out. we don't know how many wrote the letter. it is a significant margin. is going to be more chaos in the midst of this. as leaders meet, they are , but the finance minister is distracted by what is going on in london. the withdrawal agreement has been agreed. >> that is what we heard.
prime minister may wants to open up a new negotiation. she looks like a prime minister who is already in control of the situation. perspective, the problem goes beyond her. the u.k. is still very split. the government does not know what they want. there is still bickering and internal fighting. theresa may has many factions to deal with. needs to figure out what they want to do. we have a member of the u.k. parliament joining us on the phone.
is there any kind of addendum or that wouldagreement make you back the deal? the problem with the withdrawal agreement is the backstop. there is an insurance policy to prevent a hard border. but there can't be a hard border in northern ireland. there are 290 crossing points. there can't be a hard border, even if someone wanted it. it is not something we need or want. there are elements within the withdrawal agreement we can buy into.
but not the backstop. doesn't seem to be able to get that changed. is there someone you would be prepared to vote for? we are a separate political party that has given support. it is really a matter for the conservatives. we would prefer a leader who is going to stand up to the european union and get a better deal. we need a leader who can deliver for the country. this agreement was agreed for the full parliament.
up to theill signed agreement? >> right. >> if there was to be a different kind of no-confidence , you would continue to back theresa may? >> we have abided by our side of the bargain. conservative party were to breach their side of the they would implement a different agreement and proceed with the withdrawal agreement. we would review our reproach to that government. we are not at that point. we are not there yet. say a physical hard
border is not possible. what kind of border do you think we should see post-brexit? roadblocks or cameras? don't believe a hard border is necessary. travel area.mon people can move between northern ireland and the republic without inhibition. goods and services have to be checked. but they don't have to be checked at the border. we don't need any physical structures. the european union's seems to be demanding this backstop we don't think needs to be there anyway.
there are a dozen other rose to circumvent any single checkpoint. it is totally and utterly irrelevant. it is sad this process is being held up by something that is not necessary. if there were a technological solution, why has that not happened? >> it doesn't need to happen. >> why has that not been decided? if someone could prevent a , the backstop would not be so hotly debated. they have declined to accept that proposition for their own reasons.
even though the government and the irish government have said there won't be any hard border. you don't need an insurance prevent a something that everyone agrees will be implemented anyway. could betion circumvented by everyone on either side of the border. it does not look like we will get any kind of vote on a deal anyway untold january. are you still confident we will see some sort of brexit on march 29? or we will have to push that date back? i think we are staggering toward a no deal brexit.
merritt, with us on set. what are you hearing from brussels? survives,eresa may that can't help her negotiate. >> the most immediate question shows that european leaders are will theresalves may have a job within 24 hours? minister whoprime was not really in control. european leaders the government was in line. but she is not in control in this chaotic our.
a new leader could come to brussels and negotiate a new deal in the face of days or weeks. the european union has always said, we are happy to work with you. the priority for the european union is to preserve the single markets. they don't think this is credible. >> stay with us. >> it is vital to support theresa may today. the latest is that theresa may may try to have some sort of
addendum. minister may: i will contest the no-confidence vote with everything i've got. i've been a member of the conservative party for over 40 years. i've served it as an activist, councilor, and as prime minister. i believe in the conservative vision for a better future, a thriving economy, with no one left behind. a stronger society, always serving the national interest. at this crucial moment, that means securing a brexit deal that delivers on the results of the european union referendum,
and protecting jobs and our security as we do so. myough good and bad times, passionate belief that such a deal is attainable has not wavered. it is now within our grasp. i met with leaders to address the concerns that mps have with the backstop. we are making progress. i was due to travel to dublin to continue that work, but will now remain in london to make the case for my leadership. a change of leadership in the conservative party now will put our country's future at risk. riskslater -- leader handing control of the brexit
negotiations to the opposition mp. not haveeader would time to renegotiate a withdrawal agreement. they would have to risk extending or delaying article 50. people want us to get on with it. a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation. ourselvest tearing apart would only create more division when we should be standing together. none of that would be in the national interest. interestseople whose would be served our jeremy corbyn and john mcdonald. the british people want us to focus on the other issues, deliver first-class public
services. these are the priorities of the public. they must be the priorities of party.servative we shall deliver on the referendum vote and seize the opportunities that lie ahead. conservatives must not be a single issue party. we are a party of the nation, moderates, pragmatic, mainstream. to building aed country that works for everyone. i committed to delivering the brexit that people voted for. to thedevoted myself task ever since i became prime minister. i stand ready to finish the job. anna: that was the u.k. prime minister speaking outside number
10 downing street. some messages for the brexiteers, talking about if there was a new prime minister, they would be forced to delay to parch or. -- departure. fascinating use of language. towns from thed prime minister. -- tones from the prime minister. she has done an extraordinary amount of hours making the same argument. she is projecting that image again. will be a votet for yet more uncertainty and chaos. >> is the backstop her biggest mistake? >> is that agreement the biggest problem there is? >> that is the sticking point.
there w acknowledges ould be enough mps willing to fall behind. that thing is not up for be negotiation. -- renegotiation. no.dup has said the prime minister is foxed on this issue. this other cloud hanging over her leadership. if she wins, she stays for a year. >> there could be a real vote of no-confidence called, even if she wins this one. >> she has been numbers to win -- the numbers to win this vote.
anna: thank you. u.k. prime minister has said she will contest the confidence vote. let's go to manus. manus: we have our guests. our guest. let's get his reaction. if i go, it means delaying, or stopping brexit. where we are rank at the moment? it has been chaos for a wild. it is a low-level crisis. they are not at the cliff edge
yet. they have the potential to extend the march 29 deadline, but a strong majority of parliament opposes this deal. theresa may is potentially facing the end of her leadership. catharsis?ed a it opens up a whole paradigm of risk. the risk ofraises no deal even further. win, wee manages to have more resolution. you can't call another vote for a year. be the deally to that becomes the transition terms.
that would settle the markets to a degree. have a lot more uncertainty if she loses tonight. it is a very closely held vote. i think it would be hard to whichate at this moment way things will turn. >> let's say she wins this vote this evening. the best that possibly could be on the table is reassurance in regards to the backstop. but that might not appease the court brexiteers. they no longer have the ability to force her out if she wins. it is theresa may, or the general election. precisely the reason why she might get forced out right now.
it is not as if there is a great brexit deal out there. politically arguing as if the u.k. has as much influence in these negotiations as the european union. that is not true. going to beeal is economically worse for the british people and the british economy than the status quo. that is hard for her to sell politically. >> the global significance of it was very clear. they said this was a u.k. and not a global risk. >> guess and no. the u.k. economy takes it on the
chin. we are in a moment globally where western liberal democracies are in decline. there leaders have less legitimacy. that theno question brexit moments are significant pieces of that. do you think we are progressing in since the breakthrough dinner between xi jinping and donald trump, if you want to collect that, both sides have shown each other they intend to try to move toward extending the cease-fire, toward more cooperative engagement. the chinese have done that in terms of a lot of direct bilateral engagement at a high
level, and with this talk on automotive tariff production back to previous levels. the americans have done that with trump saying in a reuters interview maybe he would be this ceo ifive up it would move towards a deal. that'll stands -- that sounds positive. the reality is there are big challenges that are highly unlikely, even impossible to get addressed between these countries in three months or longer. as a consequence, trump can pretend both sides can make progress, but when we get period we will not be in a much better place. risks,in terms of global is that the preeminent risk in politics? ian: