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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  December 12, 2018 10:00pm-11:00pm EST

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picked up. i will talk more about the equity markets in a couple of seconds. a quick glance across the currency markets with all the brexit news. still holding on to the lows of the day on sterling, 1.2623. dollar-yen, a little upside. fairly consistent with relatively a risk on session. soybeans also in focus today given that we are getting a reset in terms of those shipments. not seeing a lot of reaction. the equity markets, let's have a look at that. we now know when the conference will be taking place, and it seems investors are really banking on that when you look at some of these moves. when you look at the best-performing sectors within the chinese market, it is really
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the infrastructure related names, that perhaps what comes off that meeting -- the top policy meeting, policymakers and china -- i'm getting lost here -- they might come out with more supportive measures of the economy. 60%-70% of these blue chips are on the way. rishaad: 40 minutes before the indian session, stocks up as well. let's look at the indian futures prospects for the trading day. mumbai having a look at the possibilities and perhaps looking at a gain, eking out a small gain. -- against the dollar. let's have a look at inflation. inflation easing more than estimated. this gives reason for the central banks governor to opt for a softer stance than the hawkish one we had from his predecessor.
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this could open room for an interest rate cut as opposed to the current calibrated stances. we have the option for either a cause or increase. ,onsumer prices on the way up 2.3% in november. that is the lowest we have seen in 17 months and compares with a 3.4% revised gain in october. we were looking at 2.6% inflation. >> let's get it over to paul allen for them to update of the first word news. paul: president trump's former lawyer and fixer is heading to jail, still pledging to give potentially damaging information to prosecutors. michael cohen was given three years after failing to win the leniency he sought. he accepted responsibility, saying "it was my duty to cover up donald trump's dirty deeds before the 2016 election ago the white house -- election." the white house decided --
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declined to comment. the man accused of killing four people in strasburg remains on the run. the 29-year-old was first convicted at 13 and had a string of police records across france, germany, and switzerland. in total, 27 convictions and was well known to police and france's equivalent of the fbi. say china'surces leaders will start their annual economic policy setting conference next wednesday to layout priorities for the coming year. under intense u.s. pressure to address trade concerns, but detailed figures are usually not released until march. china faces a combination of slower growth at home and uncertain trade relations abroad. china has responded to calls from the u.s. to do more to ease trade tensions by stepping up purchases of american soybeans. importers bought up to 20 million tons over the past 24 hours according to the u.s. soybean export council.
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shipments expected during the first quarter and most supplies will be sent from the pacific northwest. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. rishaad: bloomberg being told china is considering plans to delay some targets and it strategy to dominate high-end technology as it tries to ease trade tensions with the united states. david: stephen engle, allergies north asia correspondent, is with us to talk more about what is looking like more made in china 2035. stephen: sources are telling us that some of the elements of made in china 2025 could be delayed until 2035 to ease the tension with the united states. this is a hallmark project of president xi jinping and there are skeptics in the white house and united states that any pair
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back -- pare back would be a rebranding. it is a good sign that there is discussion going on that these policies have caused some ire in the united states and caused friction here. whether this means calling it something else but still pursuing is what the white house is skeptical. could there be more foreign anticipation, if that is what this rebranding would be, in china 2025 or china 2035? wilbur ross and the treasury of the secretary beating the same drum, calling on beijing to make more fundamental structural changes, to agree to timelines, deadlines, enforcement actions to mope and -- to open the market to foreign participation. ,n the china 2025 initiative the treasury secretary commented, any changes, the proof will have to be in the
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pudding. rishaad: another story is a second canadian has been taken into detention in china. what more do we know about this individual? stephen: neither china nor canada are saying the two issues are linked. the presumed second attention of a canadian in china and the trial of meng wanzhou, the cfo of huawei. but you can connect the dots because the coincidence is quite sharp. we are hearing the second american,e according to the whoal mail, is an executive runs a cultural exchange in china that does cultural exchanges with north korea. the foreign minister of canada said a second canadian individual contacted them saying he had been interrogated by chinese authorities after that phone call. there was no contact.
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there is concern he put be in the same fate as michael korvig, who has been detained by chinese. rishaad: there is a north korean connection. stephen: there is in that korvig did a lot of research into north korea, working for an international consultancy in brussels. he is on leave of absence from the foreign service, so technically he is still a foreign diplomat. but maybe not much diplomatic immunity right now, as he is confirmed to be in detention. we have not confirmed the name of the other individual, even though the global mail is saying who it is, and what potential charges he might be facing. david: stephen engle with us in our studios. rishaad: joining us now is ken peng, city private bank asia-pacific investment strategist. what are you making of where we are with the two sides jostling for position? one seemingly giving with one hand, taking with the other
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quite literally. guest: i think the g20 meeting was substantial. before then, you did not have the confirmation that both sides are working very actively and i think with meaningful progress towards the goal of reaching a deal. now i think both china and u.s. are very careful to steer the trade talks away from the other things -- rishaad: they want to isolate it from the events surrounding huawei. guest: also president trump has, out tosay -- has come say he will intervene in the huawei case if it becomes a hindrance. the attitudes are very different from before the g20. i am still optimistic that we get into more substantive negotiations. we are two weeks in now, so maybe three months' grace.
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. david: we are seeing progress. markets opened flat, up 2%. the word on the street seems to be things are getting bought up. rishaad: i think you highlighted one, the high-speed railway company. david: these infrastructure related stocks. should i get my hopes up that they come out of the meeting in beijing with something tangible so markets can take advantage of these dirt cheap evaluations? guest: the short answer is yes. it is not just trade. we had talk about the $40 billion support for real estate financing. we have already had marginal easing in real estate developments -- financing for real estate developers and some marginal using in terms of mortgages. in addition to that, the local government bond issuance has been pretty substantial to find the infrastructure you were mentioning, and we have seen infrastructure growth rebounding in october.
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we will probably see more of that. not seenem is we have negativity from exports yet in the data. going into the first quarter, those two forces will still be offsetting each other, so it is still difficult to turn the economy around immediately. rishaad: the other part of the economic meeting on the 19th is a declaration perhaps that deleveraging is over. that will be good news for some bulls out there. guest: i doubt there will be a declaration to that effect. that most there will be some cause -- pause. rishaad: we don't know what they will do in a couple of months anyway. guest: hopefully we will find out more on the fiscal side what they plan to do with tax reform for businesses. how much room is there to cut the value-added tax? if that does happen, i think it will be substantial. david: the export cliff has not shown up.
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it is showed up a little bit in the first set of numbers. what happens in the bond markets now when you have yields pushing low, expecting the data to get bad, but then -- to get but then people say these look expensive now? guest: there is two bond markets, the government bond market and the superexpensive agencies. those deals have come down a lot. some are at par or lower than similar things in the u.s. in that market, i would be more cautious because as we go into next year, the pboc is not going to try to bring interest rates down further out of concern for the currency. on the other hand, you have the corporate, particularly -- dominated by real estate issuers. they have seen difficulty getting refinancing and their spreads have widened substantially. there is value, particularly in the dollar bonds.
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onshore financing is being revised so the issue to issue expensive dollar debt is marginally lower. i think there is opportunity there. rishaad: 3.3% on the 10 year chinese government bond, 2.9% on the u.s. 10 year t-bill. why bother with the chinese one? different investors have different priorities. there is still quite a lot of demand for diversification from reserve managers. the chinese bond market eventually will be like any other market. you have your ups and downs. what happens next year is the inclusion into the euro benchmark. i think that is going to be fairly substantial for asset allocators and global bond allocators. david: let me bring in some other place that has yield,
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india, 7.5%, almost double china, almost triple -- eight times -- not eight times -- 20, 30 times germany. talk to us about india. you have the help of the central bank. guest: i think the market is what a little unsure of the new director means for monetary policy. he has had a career as the minister of finance and that has been a source of contention with his predecessor. since his announcement, you saw bonds rally and equities rally. people like the fact this may mean more expansionary monetary policy, especially ahead of the election next year. i think people are still iffy about what this means for the currency when the rest of the region is doing pretty well. if you are interested in local
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currency not in india, you have to be very comfortable with the currency. [laughter] rishaad: easier said than done. how important will the fed the in all of this? does the pboc look at what jay powell and co. are doing? guest: i think for china, the impactpact -- the fed's is more insulated. the more external debts, current account deficit countries are more sensitive. i think the market is underpricing the fed at the moment. we are looking at 10 basis points after next week. that is really low. i think the u.s. economy is doing well enough for them to raise rates -- our view is probably three times next year. rishaad: you have not changed that. guest: we have not.
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if that happens, it means the global economy is doing very well. at the moment, there is so many -- brexit, trade war -- all these things are risk areas, but i think the odds of a positive outcome are similar to the odds of a negative outcome. in my view, i think the fed probably gets to go longer, and in the near term that means a bit more pressure for emerging markets. but when the fed gets closer to the end of a rate hike, the middle of next year, we will see much more. david: the u.s. treasury looks expensive, three more times. private banki asian investment strategist. still ahead, the massive ipo on softbank gets a bit of a boo-boo. it made a mistake on speculation of the sudden availability of shares. details on that later. rishaad: sterling facing a rocky road as theresa may survives a
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vote. the latest on brexit next. ♪
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rishaad: she is still there, theresa may remaining the british prime minister after surviving a confidence vote among conservative members of parliament. shefinal vote, 200-117 and cannot be challenged for another year. david: eu leaders are meeting later thursday, later today, and have already said they will not reopen negotiations. the vote still leaves may with the daunting task of trying to force her much criticized brexit bill through parliament. pm may: i am grateful for that support. a significant number of colleagues did cast a vote against me, and i have listened to what they said. we needg this ballot,
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to get on with the job of delivering brexit to the british people and building a better future for this country. david: let's have a look at cable right now. at about the midpoint of these last five days. let's bring in our fx and rates reporter, david finnerty. you are in london a couple days ago, asia right now. a lot has happened with sterling since then. we rallied on the back of may winning a confidence vote. does that mean we are near the bottom? >> i think the market is very relieved she survived that. at the end of the day, a new deal brexit still looms. with all the votes that went against her, it still looks like it will be very hard for her to pass the brexit plan. if that does not pass and the march 29 deadline is not moved, there is the possibility of a no deal brexit, the last thing the
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market wants. while there is a relief rally, it risks a downside in the near term. certainly for may, the good news is with a recess coming up, there may not be many brexit headlines in the near future. ,ut from an economic viewpoint this time next week, u.k. retail sales. if that comes out weaker than expected, that could give indication of how the economy could be impacted by uncertainty. you could see sterling pressured lower even without brexit headlines. rishaad: david, now that this confidence vote is out of the way -- i am going to bring up a chart showing markets -- are they pricing in less sterling volatility? this is the chart we brought up yesterday showing how sterling had the same three-month implied volatility as the mexican peso. our markets pricing in less -- are markets pricing in less volatility for the pound? david f.: even though the
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no-confidence vote has ended, sparking a rally, if you look at three months or six months volatility for cable, it is still near the highest since 2016, when the brexit vote happened. markets saying, we have avoided no-confidence, but there is still potential, a lot of volatility ahead. if you look at the six month, there is still a probability of 73% that sterling against the dollar could be anything from -- resolved, aeal is lot of potential volatility lies ahead. david: quickly, two major events, the fed and eu summit. which one is more important for cable? david f.: i think initially the eu summit. if they indicate they are quite happy to move the march 27 deadline, that gives some wiggle room for cable, so i think it will rally. if they say, we are not prepared
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to move the deadline, then the probability of a hard deal definitely does rise and i think you would expect to see cable pressured very quickly lower. david: all right, david, thank you. david finnerty, our asia fx and rates reporter. rishaad: a big interview coming up on bloomberg tomorrow, speaking to andy hall. do not miss that exclusive interview, 5:00 a.m. sydney time. from new york, 1:00 p.m. thursday. ♪
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rishaad: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. bloomberg has been told nissan plans to repatriate more than $1 billion from its chinese subsidiary, a sign the automaker is rebuilding financial firepower as it ceases tensions.
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by the end of january they -- they typically reinvest profits to avoid taxes. byna is said to be in talks the core aviation assets of the struggling hna group. telling us discussions began late last year. this sprawling conglomerate tries to pay down a mountain of debt. at least two high-level meetings have been held on the subject of the flagship heinen airlines. apparently things have cooled down recently and it is unclear if talks will continue. apple suppliers in asia considering shifting iphone production out of china should tariffs on u.s. imports hit 25%. stick withers will their current operation even if the trump administration levies duties up 10% on smart phones. the president says a 10% tariff
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would have little or no impact on apple sales in america. david: let's have a look at chinese markets. how different the picture looks than at the start of the session. now that we have details on the economic meeting against the backdrop of a slowing economy and expectations they will come out with something on the fiscal side to put a floor under the data. that is pushing up a lot of these equities, especially infrastructure related stocks. have a look at these benchmarks. have a look into the bloomberg terminal and break things down across central groups. every single one is up with the exception of telcos. industrials, 2.5%. consumer discretionary shares up 3% today. let's have a look at valuations very quickly. a lot of guests have pointed out how cheap things are. they are dirt cheap. is it that trigger, the conference?
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being cheap is never the catalyst for a rally. if i bought everything cheap, i would be in the hospital or debt. watch for development out of that meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪
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leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. rishaad: 11:29 in hong kong, 2:29 in sydney. i am paul allen. china's plan to dominate high-end tech maybe a victim of the trade war. sources say beijing may postpone some of the made in china 2025 program by a decade, although a final decision has not been made. the plan aims for global advances in robotics, aerospace, and renewable energy and is one of president trump's main targets. it is not clear how much of the potential delay has been communicated to washington. canada's foreign minister says the government is no longer in contact with a second canadian citizen being questioned in china. ottawa confirmed that former diplomat michael korvig is in
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detention in china, his whereabouts unknown and without diplomatic immunity. beijing says he is being held in relation to a national security investigation but declined to offer more details. theresa may remains u.k. prime minister after surviving a confidence vote among conservative mps. the final result shows her winning by 200-117 and she can't be challenged for another year. on thursday and have said they will not reopen negotiations. the vote still leaves may with the daunting task of trying to force her brexit bill through parliament. the iranian oil minister has joined twitter, saying he wants better communication at home and abroad. the platform is officially banned in iran and is increasingly being used by authorities, including president rouhani and the prime and is the. -- prime minister.
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the minister said he was joining twitter for a dynamic and effective relationship with a domestic and foreign audience. amazon has, under attack from new york city council over plans to offer $3 billion of public money to create a satellite hq. critics say the subway is crumbling, there is record homelessness, and many people have no health insurance, but the world's richest company is still being offered a hefty incentive. the council has few legal paths to block the deal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. david: chinese cash markets have gone into the lunch break. have a look at the state of play right now. we talked about china a couple of minutes back, doing much better than at the start of the session. rishaad: everything is up for the moment. eadth, too,
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currently. hang seng up? david: not bad. this should be taking us above certain moving averages. if we sustain above them. acrosscase, decent gains sector groups. rishaad: indian markets, let's have a look. inflation is something that will be on the minds of the new central governors at the reserve bank, looking at 2.3% cpi. 2.6% was anticipated. lowest inflation in 17 months. inflation is also in the mind of the philippines central-bank. they could be ready for a pause. five successive rate increases there. all economists surveyed by bloomberg forecasting the key rate to remain 4.25%. lowest -- or should i say the highest negative rate in
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this part of the world. david: real rates still an issue. inflation has stabilized. it has not quite fallen back to where the central bank needs it to be. still three times the five-year average. cautious, hsbcis economist noelan arbis. is there no case for a hike today, not even a 1% chance? guest: of course there is a chance, but i don't think they would do it. we thought the rate hike in november was out of character. i think that was preemptive based on what they have done in recent rate hikes. but inflation appears to have the -- to have peaked. growth has sloan and the peso has stabilized. if anything, i think they will be more cautious, but use the opportunity to signal markets what they are going to do next. rishaad: what will they be doing next in 2019?
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is there monetary and -- is their monetary prescription paying dividends? guest: not out of the woods yet. the key thing is the pause. they are not ending the rate hikes. we think they hike by 25 basis points next year. inflationary risks are still tilted to the upside. we have core inflation. if you look at inflation, down from 6.7 to 6.0 from october to november. but core inflation went up from 4.9 to 5.1. that is significant because it shows the decline was mainly due to lower oil prices and food prices, while underlying inflationary prices were increasing. that is one of watching. the second thing is there is additional excise taxes implemented january 1, the same taxes implemented at the
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beginning of this year that led to broad price increases. if that happens again, the bsp could hike. we think they will be more proactive this time. david: we have a chart that shows imports. we have the latest trade numbers, 10 billion on imports, a record trade deficit as well. that is imports. here is the trade deficit. is the economy overheating? core inflation is on the way up. something must be pushing that up. the next part of my question is the peso seems expensive looking at how this is blowing out. , i don't overheating think it is a case of overheating. i would be more worried for next year about crowding out instead of overheating. meaning the fiscal expansion the government is undergoing at the moment, in light of high interest rates now, high bank lending rates, as well as low liquidity in the market, lowest since 2010.
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that could crowd out private investments in 2019. in terms of core inflation going up, i think that is a sign of second round impacts from what we have seen, rather than overheating of the economy. david: the peso very quickly -- rishaad: i know you always ask this question and no one knows the answer, what the fair value is, but we have got to ask you that. isst: we think the peso going to strengthen near the end of the year. our fx team has it about 52. but we think the national tendency, given the trade balance, we forecast the current account deficit into next year around 1.8% of gdp, higher than the 1.5% it will end up this year. that means that trajectory for the peso is for continued weakness. we have it at 54 by the end of next year. rishaad: this is a line just coming through. the philippines adopted a
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countercyclical capital buffer for banks. do you know what that means exactly? there?the banking system ,uest: it is on decent footing but it is the liquidity thing i am talking about. rishaad: this is what that alludes to? guest: it probably is. if you look at excess liquidity -- we have a chart in our recent report -- that is at its lowest level since at least 2010, probably longer. there is very tight liquidity in the system. the bsc's rate hikes have translated to higher bank lending rates, unlike asia where b.i. has hiked but lending rates have come down. if you look at next year's fiscal deficit target, it is slated to increase to 3.2% of gdp, governments borrowing going up 20%-20 5%.
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that will tighten up liquidity even more. david: let's shift gears. we do have details -- not very interesting. it is one of the tools they are using to mitigate risk factors, so let's move away from the philippines. rishaad: i think you want to talk about thailand, don't you? guest: what is curious about that economy -- the ministry of finance or the commerce minister said inflation at 1% is ok for them. under what circumstances for an emerging market is 1% inflation ok? guest: thailand is interesting because inflation has not picked up. we think a big part is oil driven. we have seen oil plummet since the second half of the year. that's why we saw inflation at the recent meeting come down to below 1%. we think they are going to start increasing rates. we have one penciled in for next week, their first rate hike in
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many years. for inflation, i think we think inflation is probably going to go up next year. inflation is probably going to average 1.1% this year, 1.2% this year. we are seeing wage growth now, something we did not see in the past. that is what has been keeping inflation down. rishaad: against dollar strength , the best performers have all fallen against the dollar. this is the third best performer. the number one was the yen. there is confidence there, isn't there? guest: the current account surplus for thailand is -- there is confidence from financial markets in the thai economy. david: vietnam, one of the stories today -- this comes back to the supply chain thing -- everyone keeps talking about vietnam as the destination.
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rishaad: all knocking on the door. david: why is that? is it actually a fair comparison , that they have both the capacity, the technological advancement to get to china, the cost of labor and infrastructure? is that all check, check in vietnam? guest: check on most of them. i was just in vietnam a couple months ago and you do see anecdotal evidence from companies saying there is more interest from multinational companies to come here. i am not sure about capacity, because one problem that vietnam has is even though the majority of their labor is still in agriculture and has the possibility to shift into more productive injuries like manufacturing, productivity of labor is not that high yet. the labor population employed in managerial roles is 1%. that is something they need to improve in the future to attract more investments.
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as you mentioned, especially when it comes to low-end manufacturing activities and investments, vietnam seems to be the next best destination. rishaad: the other one you mentioned was indonesia. is it a situation where you look at these countries as the ones which have the current account surplus and the ones that have the current account deficit? guest: that seemed to be how the market look at it this year. indonesia, philippines, india, those currencies have been hammered. that is why we expect b.i. tremaine proactive, hike another time in december. next year, our outlook for the fed is quite benign for the current account deficit countries. we only expect two rate hikes from the fed and for a prolonged pause following the first half of the year. if that is the case, the pressure on the current account deficit countries will probably ease. rishaad: i was indonesia looking
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for 2019? guest: growth will probably come down, around 5% from 5.2% this year. i think the big problem for indonesia is balancing payments. rishaad: too many islands. [laughter] guest: 17,000? keep in mind, there is an election in indonesia next year, so that should provide some cushion to external headwinds. that is going to boost private consumption and government expansion. david: thank you for coming on the program. covered quite a bit there. noelan arbis, economist at hsbc. rishaad: huawei saying a -- huawei has frozen purchases from them. they manufacture markets, motors, controllers, and industrial robots. huawei has been turned upside down internally after the arrest
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of the cfo in canada. the presidentrom talking in them to interview. david: coming up, we are switching gears, having a look at india. there is the gentleman facing a long to do list amid concerns about the economy. inflation not really a big problem. five in mumbai next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: let's have a look at india now, inflation easing more than expected, giving reason for the new governor of the central bank topped --to opt for a softer stance. rishaad: prices up 2.3% in november, the lowest in 17 months.
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let's get to the indian economy and policy reporter. what does this new governor actually bring to the table? >> he brings a breath of fresh air to the very staid corridors of the bank. we know he is a consensus builder and people say he is a team player. that is really what is needed in this hour amid growing rift between the government and banks. he had a press conference just hours after taking over yesterday. the key takeaway was he is far more communicative than the previous one, who was a recluse. he has an inflation dove and he is more bothered about growth. the previous governor, a monetary policy hawk, was when edded to the inflation mandate. this governor says it needs to be addressed.
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a huge takeaway, bond markets have rallied. the market is barely pricing anymore rate hikes. going into february or april, we might see easier policy coming in for the next few months. david: he sounds like a guy as well -- since you are mentioning asset classes -- the stock market will love. this board meeting taking place tomorrow. give us your sense of what will likely take place. stormy were not -- stormy or not? anirban: i would like it to be stormy because this is a guy who has been in the government for a year, a career bureaucrat. the government is pushing a higher share of results from the reserve bank of india and governor patel has been opposed to that. because he is a consensus builder and he knows the ways of the government and the way the government works and various stakeholders, i think he will try to draw a middle line that will help the government with
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some money that goes out as well as keep the autonomy and independence in fact -- intact. not easy, but he might just well do it because he is a team player. david: we will see. nag.odirban decent open for the equity market. it is really in the currency space where we are getting the sharp move downward. that is the biggest move in about two weeks, so we have not quite returned down to levels. risk on so far in india. the other thing we are talking about, shares of softbank anti-japanese underwriter are lower after the admission on the part of the underwriter they are allocating some of the $1.6 billion of shares that sbi is
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selling in softbank's massive ipo. rishaad: let's have a look at all this and get over to tokyo finance editor, russell ward. this is a schoolboy error. what went wrong? russell: it involves one of japan's less known international underwriters, sbi holdings. they are mainly focused on retail and business, online broker in japan. they held a lottery to distribute shares only to find out later that some had been allocated less than they were able to get. later on the underwriter told these retail investors that they could get more. that sparked a bit of confusion among investors. thinking i can get more now, maybe there has been a cancellation, maybe something has gone wrong. that sparked some chatter on
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social media and a little panic among retail investors. turns out this was just a mistake. so fbi shares have been falling in morning trading. a bit of a black mark for them. david: 4%. imagine if you only had set aside money for 300 shares and they are telling you to take 1000. bigger picture next week. does this in any way affect the $23 billion offering? russell: it is certainly not a good look for japan's biggest ipo ever. there in mind that sbi -- bear in mind sbi has only allocated 7% of the offering. that was priced at ¥5,000. the underwriters did not give any price range, which signals lower confidence in the price. i don't know what sort of impact that might have been a long run.
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there have been a few uncertainties surrounding the sale. last week there was an outage that affected subscribers to softbank. of course the global stock rout. government's the pressure on carriers to lower their fees. we must bear in mind that much of this is being sold to retail investors who are very starved they are probably still quite keen on grabbing some of this, given that softbank is pitching to give high dividend pay for the sale. we will have to see next week on the 19th how the stock trades. rishaad: great stuff, thank you for that. russell ward joining us from tokyo. we are looking ahead to six interest rate decisions today.
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ecb the biggest one, and we will tell you what the other five are, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: you are back. let's have a look at the business flash headlines. germany stepping up efforts to ease a merger between deutsche bank and commerzbank. high level discussions have included the finance ministers and deutsche bank ceo. it is all over how to combine these two biggest lender's in the country. talks include tweaking laws to make the merger less costly. deutsche bank is in a vicious cycle of high expenses and falling revenue. shares of a hong kong listed company fell for the second day, 10% over two days, when it resumed trade following a critical report from a short seller.
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allegations about its financial health are groundless, they say, and it is considering legal action. it is a chinese manufacturer of personal hygiene products and dropped almost 6% when trading was halted at its request on wednesday. have a look at that. as we head into the lunch break, other things we are following this thursday. going to be very busy, to say the least. rishaad: particularly in europe. david: how many in europe do we have here? forgot about this. markets doing well, much better than at the start of the session. as you can see, a 50 futures in china seeing some upside. u.s. futures also feeling a tailwind from these expectations that china's central committee -- the state council comes out with something tangible from the work planning meeting on the economy. rishaad: the ecb is the big one out of the six interest rate decisions. we have mario draghi.
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he has all but promised to end qe this month, quantitative easing. the primary outcome of the decision should be to confirm that. swiss, norway, turkey. the ukraine is there as well. we also have the philippines. i was hearing in the break about that one. hike in first rate 2020. just a few weeks ago we were looking at it being in september. no interest rate moves are expected today. in the ukraine, 18% interest rates. in turkey, 24% at the moment. that is 2:00 p.m. ankara time, 11:00 a.m. u.k. this is the ecb market volatility. david: this shows you the number of months from the current time when the market is expecting the first rate hike. three months back, it was september of next year.
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right now that is well into the first quarter of next year. certainly german bonds of 27 basis points tell you that is not going to happen anytime soon. special coverage of the central bank policy decisions later today. that is the policy decision, 8:45 hong kong time. more importantly, it is when this man faces the media about an hour before markets open in the u.s.. rishaad: will he say, that is it, we are done with you we -- with qe? the current deposit rate is -.45%. the swiss national bank as well with their rate decision. they have got interest rates at -.75%. i think the lowest interest rate in the world. they do have risks such as italian foreign politics, brexit likely to keep up the appetite for swiss assets in the coming months. the swiss franc is often seen as
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being a haven. often seen as a proxy for the old deutsche mark. david: lots more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ there's no place like home ♪
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argh! i'm trying... ♪ yippiekiyay. ♪ mom. ♪
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>> i'm emily chang in san francisco in this is bloomberg technology. getting tough on trade, apple suppliers may consider moving iphone production away from china if tariffs on u.s. imports rise. what is it mean for apple supply chain, and will other companies follow? plus, turn up the volume. tencent

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