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tv   Bloomberg Best  Bloomberg  December 15, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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>> coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. instead of voting on a brexit deal, parliament votes on a prime minister. >> this no-confidence vote has been threatened for so long. >> the parliamentary party does have confidence. >> theresa may survives another challenge, but can she get her brexit lan across the finish line? >> she will still have a deal she cannot get through the house of commons. >> she is a dead woman walking. >> not much clarity on the trade front either as the u.s. and china send mixed signals. >> we are hearing they separated the issue of hauwei and they are focusing on areas of common ground. >> the ecb ends qe.
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president trump threatens a government shutdown of congress rejects his border wall. >> i will take the mantle of shutting down. >> i guess it is a little bit discouraging if you are an investor. >> has political uncertainty ratchets up, distinguished guests discuss whether growth is about to slow down. >> there will be another downturn. >> it may be more difficult for growth to continue. >> i don't know if we are going to have a huge amount of trends. > it could jus be and enormously volatile period. >> it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." hello and welcome. this is "bloomberg best." your weekly review of the most
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important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines. investors began the week bracing for a tuesday vote on a brexit agreement. the deal negotiated by theresa may and approved last month by the european union, but as with just about everything else in the brexit process so far, it did not go as planned. >> brexit break. facing the prospect of defeat, prime minister theresa may has announced the parliamentary brexit deal vote scheduled for tomorrow has been delayed. >> it is clear that while there is broad support for many of the key aspects of the deal -- [lab protest]
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on one issue, the northern ireland backstop, there remains widespread and deep concern. we will therefore differ the vote scheduled for tomorrow. >> theresa may was basically defending her deal and saying this is as good as it gets, there is not a negotiated deal better than it is. also is asking for from brussels is reassurance, assurances. she's not a talking about opening the deal or overhauling her deal. she has refused to put a date of one her vote would come back to parliament. when she was asked a few times, all she said was the january 21, the deadline which is ensconced in legislation, it is a date by which the government has to tell parliament what it is up to. >> president standing bullish on trade, tweeting moments ago the following, "very productive conversations going on with china, what for some important announcements." talk to me about >> important announcements. the president declaring premature victory as it relates to auto tariffs. now they're getting new reporting that suggests that the president was right about that, that china is said to move on u.s. car tariffs.
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the proposal that the terrorists would be reduced to 15%, but -- tariffs would be reduced to 15%, but nothing concrete. steve mnuchin and bob lighthizer, the u.s. trade representative, have been meeting with the chinese vice premier. off of those trade talks last night on the phone, we are hearing they have separated the issue of hauwei and they are continuing to focus on areas of common ground, particularly in the agricultural sector. that is good news for farmers, agricultural sector, and that is what treasury secretary mnuchin said will be the biggest positive impact of this in the short-term. >> president trump has just held a contentious meeting with the democratic leaders in congress, chuck schumer and nancy pelosi. >> i will take the mantle, i will be the one to shut it down.
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i'm not going to blame you for it. the last time you shut it down, it did not work. i'm going to shut it down for border security. >> if this is a view into how this will go forward in the new congress, i did not find it very encouraging. >> i guess it is a little bit discouraging if you are an investor. it does look like we are headed toward a government shutdown next week. the president proclaimed that if the government shuts down, it will be donald trump who makes it happen. you could almost say that the losey and schumer sort of baited him a little bit in taking ownership of a government shutdown should it happen on next friday. >> hauwei cfo has been granted bail by a canadian court that allows the executive to stay in her vancouver home as she awaits possible extradition to the u.s. over fraud charges. >> the canadian judge in what was a very tense and dramatic bail proceeding did agree to release her, saying that the defense proposed a number of
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restrictions that offset the flight risk. it is quite a long list. the topline figure is the bail that was set at $10 million canadian. >> president trump says he would now intervene in the case of that arrested hauwei executive if it would help the trade deal with china. he said, "if i think it is good for what will be the largest trade deal ever made, which is a very important thing, what is good for national security, i would certainly intervene if i thought it was necessary." >> it has left a few people scratching their heads wondering how donald trump might intervene in the hauwei case. it might send an interesting message to the chinese about the rule of law in the united states and the independence of the judiciary looking at how donald trump tries to get involved in transactional relationships, whether he can actually do it or not, that is a different question. >> the man who heads the back benches in the conservative party has announced there will be a vote of confidence into
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theresa may. that will take place tonight. only he knew whether he had 48 names locked away in the safe, 40 letters of no confidence. it seems he has that number in her. >> we are finding here this no-confidence vote in her leadership has been threatened for so long and it is actually happening. the question all along, there have been enough people to trigger this. they have waited for their moment to do so. the expectation has been that they don't have enough support to actually topple her. >> i will contest that vote with everything i've got. >> assuming that she wins this, she was still have a deal that she cannot get through the house of commons. deal missing that changes is she won't have to worry about a leadership challenge again. will this increase her authority? not desperately. will this solve any of the problems? no. >> the result of the ballot held this evening is that the
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parliamentary party does have confidence -- [loud cheering] >> now that we have dealt with the fact that theresa may's leadership is secure for another year, we now have to get back to getting the deal over the line. >> all this shows is that the brexit deal that she has put on the table is unacceptable to about two thirds of the house of commons. she is a dead woman walking. >> sources say beijing, they have pushed back plans for high-tech domination by about 10 years. as it tries to ease tension with washington. >> the ambitious made in china 20.5 program has been one of the main targets in china -- president trump's trade war. >> the industrial policy, the made in china 2025 program, has been seen by china as a redline when it came to negotiations with the u.s., which is why it is interesting that maybe they are looking at amending it.
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it will come down to the details, exactly what changes, they are looking to implement. they may delay this program from 2025 to 2035. we heard from the wall street journal that it may open up the project to greater participation. that is certainly a desire of european and u.s. executives who operate in china, something they have been pushing for. >> they have made some moves to help protect international property rights. they have announced that they are going to do away with the 25% retaliatory tariffs on u.s. exports of cars to china. they are making a number of steps in addition a very large purchase of soybeans and a very large potential purchase of lng. they are starting to make some very early stage, very preliminary, but very welcome moves that are specific, tangible, and measurable. >> a landmark decision from the ecb, the central bank saying it will halt quantitative easing
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this month. mario draghi expect -- expressed some concerns about future economic growth. >> the balance of risk is moving to the downside. >> how should we perceive mario draghi today? dovish enough? >> it was a classic dovish tightening. >> europe is the region in the world with the sharpest deceleration. it is leading economic indicators. there is no sign of a bottom. he is highlighting a lot of uncertainty around china's fiscal stimulus. trade tensions, brexit, italy, better call -- better political stimulation. italy post-up was a recessionary
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growth numbers. these are signs to the downside. >> european leaders have toughened their stance on brexit, removing some of the helpful parts of the communique that diplomats had drafted in advance. at the same time, the eu is stepping up plans for a no deal departure. is theresa may further to getting away with her deal? it seems that she might be thrown some assistance by eu leaders and then it seemed to change overnight. >> at one point of the night, european leaders say and, maybe we can give her some concessions. what has become really clear is that the irish backstop, if we don't get this cleared the deal is not going to go through parliament. the problem is that european leaders were taken aback by the presentation. she did not give enough detail and the eyes of european leaders. they thought she was too vague. you have to clearly explain what it is that you want.
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now what i'm hearing is that december is going to be a no go for brexit. the real deadline is now seen as january 21 here. >> china is taking steps to bring down the trade tensions with the u.s.. after three months, beijing will remove the punitive 25% tariffs on american cars. how far will this go? to ease any potential negotiations from the trump administration? >> i think this is a good day for donald trump. he had said that this was the chinese were going to do. for a while, it looked like they were not saying they are going to do it, now they are going to do it. that has to be a notch in his beltm a success. it is good for american companies.
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ford, tesla, also good for german automakers, they are leading exporters of cars from the u.s., bmw and daimler. i would call it a red letter day. juliette: still ahead, an exclusive conversation with the credit suisse ceo. the bank announced billions and buybacks and he says the rebound is working. and coming up, more of the week's top business headlines. france's president promises more spending, a pledge that could cause another headache for the eu. >> out rules are applied when it comes to different member states. juliette: this is bloomberg. ♪
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juliette: this is "bloomberg best." let's continue our global tour of the week's most important business stories in india, where the head of the central bank unexpectedly stepped down. >> a shakeup in india's central bank, the head of the central bank unexpectedly resigned in the midst of repeated clashes. >> these concerns were definitely scripted for quite some time with rbi clashing with the government. there was a lot of uncertainty because of the meeting coming up, but also the statewide elections, which could signal how much strength narendra modi
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as going into next year's national election in next may. the r.b.i. has been under a lot of pressure since tony 14 to use -- 2014 the use its capital reserves to help the governor boost economic growth and that eventually led to patel's present nation. >> india appointed a new head of the reserve bank less than 24 hours after his predecessor abruptly stripped down. he was the economic affairs secretary, part of the administered there are -- ministry of finance, and he then oversaw one of the moving forces behind modi's demonetization of a program that is still controversial to this day. he has been a member of the finance commission and he was one of the sherpas at the last g20 meeting for india. >> china's trade surplus with
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the u.s. hit a record, $1.6 billion in november, despite overall exports waning and uncertainty over the trade war. factory gate prices slowed further. consumer inflation saw moderation. does this give you a sense of the trade war or is it a structural slowdown that was already hitting china and that continues to play out? >> i would say that we have traded toward weak demand and effect of the u.s. china trade tensions. in the meantime, china's trade surplus jumped to $45 billion u.s. dollars. that is on track to shift china's current account balance to a moderate annual surplus from a deficit in the first three quarters. >> italy's populace has been helped by an unlikely source, emmanuel macron. in order to stop the french vest
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this yellow vest protests, it could help italy's challenge to the eu budget rules. >> it is a big story here in brussels and could potentially turn into a much bigger headache because it really does call under pressure how much rules are applied when it comes to member states. the italian government and the european mission have been in talks to bring down the deficit. the italian government wants to spend more money to fuel more growth. that is their argument. they were told you have to stick to the rules. the problem is that emmanuel macron has decided to go on a spending spree to bring down tensions in france. the italian premier said that the italians are thinking of the french are spending, why should we not do the same?
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the rules of got to be applied for everyone. it looks like this will be a big fiscal headache for the european union. >> the italian prime minister has proposed to reduce the deficit target to just over 2% for 2019. this represents a significant concession to the european commission, which had rejected the target of 2.4% as a breach of rules. a spokesman for jean-claude juncker said good progress has been made, but the risk of eu sanctions could still remain. is everything settled now that italy has made this important concession on the deficit? or is there still some strife? >> the details still need to be worked out. you could say that the shouting is over, but the game goes on. finance minister tria is in brussels to work out those details. the commission will want to see lots more in writing before it makes a final decision. >> chinese industrial production
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well below estimates. but we did have a pickup in investment and that could indicate stimulus is beginning to reach the real economy. >> the estimates had been for brought stability. that is not what we got. retail sales numbers are disappointing. well below the forecast of 8.8%. that is the lowest number since may 2003. there have been some expectations that you get this alibaba singles' day bump because that was a big event on the 11th of november. of course, we had the industrial production number coming in below the estimates well below all the estimates, 5.4%. we have the fixed asset investment number that would be one silver lining in this data set coming and above the estimates suggesting that possibly some of the stimulus is starting to play out.
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we heard from the pboc saying that there is increased downward pressure and that the central bank is ready to provide support. ♪
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juliette: you are watching "bloomberg best." i'm juliette saly. buying back as much as $3 billion in stock, marking the completion of the bank's three-year rebound under the new
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ceo who supervised a pivot from more volatile trading to wealth management. he spoke exclusively to francine lacqua about the buyback and credit suisse's turnaround. >> we always said that if they supported us, we would come to a position where we can return capital and we are pleased to return that point. >> shareholders ask for more buybacks and you could do it. >> it is not a function of the current position and market conditions. these numbers announced today are very prudent. it is reasonably safe. i'm not known for holding capital as a ceo. any extra capital will be issued. francine: talking a little bit about the headwinds in the market conditions, are the going to get worse from here? >> when i came into this job, we already have been very long into an expansion. all of our thinking has been about protecting the bank. we cut risk. we cut cost by more than $5 billion. we could stand a drop in revenue
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and remain profitable. we raised capital and we dealt with their issues. low risk, low-cost, low capital. a great place to go into a difficult environment. francine: this is a market correction or something worse? >> growth albeit at a lower level which drives our ability to make profits. profits will be higher than they were in 2015. we had 60% of our business in
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the executive banks and we now have more than two thirds and financial. we have a much quote -- higher quality of earnings and higher profits. now it leaves us in a much safer position. juliette: coming up on "bloomberg best," more of the week's top company news, including an uncomfortable trip to capitol hill by the google ceo. plus, more compelling conversations. the imf sees risk on the horizon for the global economy. >> we will surely have another downturn. the question will be, is that a garden-variety downturn or
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another more serious crisis like we have had be for? juliette: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ there's no place like home ♪
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argh! i'm trying... ♪ yippiekiyay. ♪ mom. ♪
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juliette: welcome back. in a week where global markets continue to show volatility, conversation on bloomberg turned to the outlook for growth and the out seven impending recession. let's start with managing director david lipton, who shared his insight with bloomberg surveillance. risks in thee global economy. we will have another downturn and the question will be is it a garden-variety downturn or a serious crisis? what we do is going to determine that. there are opportunities with
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technology. there are opportunities for a better future but we can only reap those if we work together so it is important everyone speak about that and we can have a broader understanding of the situation. >> what are the chances of a downturn? so the beginning in the next 18 months, and what role does the china/u.s. trade tensions -- -- play in the possible downturn? david: it is hard to know when downturn will come and what will be the precipitating cause. history tells us there will be another downturn. it behooves us to realize national policy responses may be less potent. monetary policy does not have room because interest rates are low. fiscal policy does not have room because debts are higher. strength toave respond. it is important as we have been
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saying the imf to fix the roof while the sun is shining to put off the downturn and mixer it is not severe. that future is not deterministic. it is in the hands of policymakers. economy, although we believe as well as china will avoid it recession -- a recession. the market had been complete. the deceleration growth was going to be marked by periodic lips with fiscal policy running and trade war tensions high the fed being less accommodative with each passing day. all that sets up the store for modest disappointments and growth in 2019. >> you expect the fed and central banks not to capitulate to market capitulation. >> that would be risky.
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there is talk the federal reserve may pass raising rates this month. that would be a mistake. the federal reserve will not do that. the burden is high for the fed not to raise rates. the federal reserve was not going to raise rates above 3% which would mean two rate hikes in 2019. we estimate it will be march. we believe the federal reserve will not proceed on the dot plot that they haven't been desperate they have been anticipating. juliette: jack lew offered another perspective on the global economy with attention to how policy in washington may affect growth and spillover to assets around the world. he spoke in dubai. recovery.
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periods of growth do not go forever. a deficit policy in the united states at a time of economic growth for trade wars that are man-made problems. you see uncertainty and disruption put into an economy that already late in the cycle. >> the deficit is blowing out trillion dollars is what the cbo verdict. my question is -- when does the debt hike begin to matter? both you look at the debt, the deficit and accumulated debt, we made progress in the time i was in office stabilizing things. from 10% of gdp to 3% of gdp. we stabilized the debt. we are driving policies that are
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sitting -- hitting 100% of gdp faster. you know when business cycle ends, there is going to be a need for government intervention and if you have already spent -- yout your fiscal resources do not have resources to spend when you need to stimulate the economy. the cost of service in debt will squeeze out important things like investing in the future. there are things from infrastructure that would help the future, paying more debt bills does not. -- we talka risk about it really. we talk about greece. what is the risk of real activism or indigestion in the u.s. bond market? >> the u.s. treasury market remains the biggest market in the world. >> you really believe that. >> the issue will be the price, not the access for some time.
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you are looking at when there is a flight towards safety, it is towards the dollar. the price is going to go up. interest rates will creep up and we see that, the spread between the u.s. and other yields is ahead of said policy. u.s. cannott the borrow is not the right way to think about it in the short term. the right way to think about it is if you are concerned about your trade deficit, when you spend and borrow more, your trade deficit goes up, not down. all the things creating tension is going to get worse because of the deficit. our ability to invest in our country goes down. another guest offered another vision of the guest this week. --, theent hosted by nonprofit just capital and told vonnie quinn high market
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volatility next year might not be good for investors to hold long-term positions. >> markets are volatile. i easily see a situation in 2019 where the deleveraging we have been experiencing in the last month and a half, really the last five months, all that deleveraging gets reinvested in the market. one of the greatest hedge funds where the relative getting. there will be some point in 2019 when the market is up on the year and there will be a squeeze and all that deleveraging we see is going to go back into the market. 2007 is a great example. the last hike was in 2006. economy was falling apart but the stock market did great till october.
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can we have a scenario like that? it is possible. >> are you putting trade on or keeping powder dry? what are you doing to prepare for that scenario? >> we are having and holding static positions. this might be a better time to be a traitor --trader. i do not know if we are going to have a huge amount of transit. it could be a volatile. -- volatile period. juliette: tom mackenzie spoke of a chinese vehicle company that delivered its first commercial model this week. it is expected to buy for china's booming market against tesla and forge. tom asked where it sees itself in competition with tesla.
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expect it will be able to compete with tesla in the next couple years. customers will benefit. there is a risk of overcapacity in china's electric vehicle market, and if are going tonk we get to a point of rapid consolidation? >> we expect to see a process for consolidation in two years or more. this would be to bigger companies. >> is the financing environment more challenging for a company like yours? >> there is abundant free capital. investors need to look for stable and large investment opportunities. industry.a new we see many investors interested but they are more cautious than before. >> the chinese government could be about to do a favor to tesla and other automakers. as a result of these trade
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negotiations. is that a setback for ex parte --expon? >> we always hoped the chinese government would lift restrictions around subsidies and tariffs. in the long-term, it would damage us. ♪
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juliette: this is bloomberg best. let's resume around above the top business news. in silicon valley where uber became the latest ridesharing company to begin the sharing towards an ipo. uber has joined its rival lyft in trying to go public. .ike lyft, the service admitted when do we expected to go public
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? uber talked about the second half of next year. that is possible. we have reported making acquisitions in the scooter field so lots of things to delay this. we are talking about the beginning or the spring of 2019. so many factors here. they want to take advantage of the slow interest rate in -- environment. still enthusiasm for ride sharing. , perhapshings unanticipated could delay their filings. >> uber said to have selected morgan stanley, which is expected to be the biggest listing in 2019. this is a victory for michael greines who has become a go-to guy for silicon valley firms. helped uberanley
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right the ipo perspective. it has been the main bank in the , theand michael greines key banker. it is a big win for morgan stanley in getting uber ready for what could be this $120 billion ipo next year. music has risen on its trading debut in the u.s. it happened after a series of negative headlines, including a lawsuit and two-month delay threatened to dampen the mood of investors. they had a less than ideal ipo pricing but how did their debut go? >> the pricing was in the range of 13-15. we did learn it was going to be towards the low end of $13. when it started trading on the stock exchange to much fanfare, to $14.10.nd popped it did meander lower but then it
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closed smack on $14 a share. 7.7%.s a price jump of all told it raised $1.1 billion. att still values the company $22.9 billion. million american depository receipts. qualcomm declaring a win and a chinese court, ruled in favor of the legal battle with apple. it is banning the sale of many of apple's recent models in china. the tech giant says all models will remain available. the companies locked in an ongoing dispute over licensing fees -- how serious is it for apple to have this injunction in place in china? >> this has been qualcomm's tactic, to get these injunctions in china and the u.s. to make it
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look as though the iphone would fail or be restricted. this is the first type of this kind of ruling we have seen. we do not know the exact extent and it does not include the licensed iphones. this is not the kind of headline investors want to see. onapple saying a chinese ban models of the iphone in china will forfeit to settle with qualcomm despite the fact they are thinking of settling, they are asking the court to reconsider. what is next? >> apple has not indicated it intends to settle with qualcomm. qualcomm has made statements to the office saying it would like to settle. what we have our legal documents. this is an application for reconsideration in mandarin to the courts handling this matter,
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indicating that is a possibility if the injunction is not overturned by the government. rising trade tensions between the u.s. and china have apple suppliers. that could mean moving production out of china if tariffs rise to 25%. president trump still -- told the wall street journal threats could be slapped on smartphones and laptops made in china. what do we know about the likelihood of apple moving its production out of china? what would this look like? >> it does not appear to be likely. we will get more clarity as we know how much longer this administration is going to last, if there are indications the next administration in two or six years is going to continue these tariffs. -- b are plan the end the and c scenarios. we are told this is the report from our colleague.
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tariffs around 10% on the iphone if those go to place. there is not much room for panic. we are not going to make rash decisions but if discussions to rough on5% iphones, that is where there might be contingency plans going into effect. the google ceo faced the house judiciary committee earlier. addressing concerns over the release of a search engine in china, walk us through the list of complaints they are throwing against google. the search engine in china is one possibility. >> the exchanges around the circuit -- the search engine launching in china might be the most significant development. outaw -- refused to rule launching a search engine. he got questions about google's plans. he never directly answer the question about whether he was having conversations or in
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conversation with officials in the chinese government, which is significant. -- has been raised a notch for the formal indictments but also greg kelly and family members are being barred from entering homes around the globe. what happens from here? happens is the indictment allows prosecutors to formally lay charges against carlos ghosn as well as greg kelly and even nissan, which is embroiled in this. open up the books and find things. they have been. now that the formal indictments have come through, he is eligible for beal but that is happenedbecause what is prosecutors rearrested carlos ghosn on similar charges of misrepresenting his pay over a
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different type period. that would prevent any bail granite --d or granted to carlos ghosn. >> elliott advisors has taken a stake. the company says it is seeking better governance as the company lost market share underperformed its peers. talk us through what we might see from here in terms of what we have heard from elliott. activists.e it is busy. it is the flavor of the year. 12, 18 minutes -- months, campaign after campaign. he is so activist. we have got a company pretty dormant. they have thrown a number of smaller deals but nothing significant. he is trying to shake up the tree and boost volume. is under intensifying
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efforts to fix deutsche bank. that may include a merger with comments bank. is this an indication berlin is finally beginning to worry about frankfurt? watching whateen is going on in frank for for a while. -- frankfurt for a while. they are concerned about the situation in frankfurt at deutsche bank. in the past they have had a hands-off relationship with the bank and now they are considering helping. they are weighing scenarios, options. for example, a change to a tax code we have been told. that could help pave the way for a merger down the road. ♪
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>> you mentioned sterling and this bloomberg function and the -- showing how volatile it has been. i do not want to overwhelm you with this cool graphic but what this shows is the demand for sterling exceeding demand for a weakercalls, meaning pound over the next six months. >> there were 30,000 functions on the bloomberg and we enjoy showing our favorites on bloomberg television. maybe they will become yours.
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here is another function. it will lead you to our quick takes where you can get .mportant context and insights >> income inequality. >> we see a disturbing trend towards rising income inequality. >> income inequality is the phrase over the moment -- of the moment. every region in the world has seen its income gap grow. that has helped fuel populist movements in italy and the u.s. a wider income inequality is seen as a bad thing, there is a debate about whether equalizing income actually helps the poor. income inequality is often used as a catchall description for ills like poverty or class division. what the issues are intertwined, the term measures the gap between rich and poor.
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after the great depression, the share of national wealth held by the developed nations since the 1970's has been growing. take the u.s. fromverage income grew 12% 2007 to 2016. the wealthiest 5% saw their average income increase 31% to 375,000 $88 a year. china has a wider gap, ranking it number 29. president even thing has dedicated millions of dollars to disparity though it continues to because to buy the country's rapid urbanization. rural chinese erred -- earn a third of their counterparts in the cities. areome negative outcomes greater political instability, low productivity gains. >> it has been thought to create
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longer commutes and higher divorce rates. narrowing the gap does not help the poor. >> inequality is not necessarily a zero sum game. after the 2009 recession, that struck the stock portfolios. that reduced inequality but in that time, the port did not get richer. >> some say inequality is not the best measure of well-being. >> people that worry about inequality are overblown. as anarget inequality ask incentive for people to take risks. >> there is cause for optimism. since 1990, more than one billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty. that was one of the many rick takes you can find on the bloomberg. find them on bloomberg.com along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that will be all for bloomberg best this week. thanks for watching.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> when your head of the imf -- >> had you get to be head of the entire firm? >> it is in those situations when a woman arises. >> you became a member of the national team of france. >> i did many international -- -- events. >> did you experience discrimination? >> when i interviewed with law firms. i was told in those days i would never make permission because i was a woman. >> i thought people would not recognize me if my tie was fixed. ♪

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