tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg December 18, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
where the world of politics meets the world of business. today, greg pharaoh in new york on the sentencing of michael flynn. from washington, kevin cirilli on a possible retreat from the white house on the government shutdown. and from rome, our correspondent on getting the italian budget passed the european commission. trump wishingt mike flynn well today on his way into sentencing. how is it going? >> not well. the defense had hoped that the judge would show sympathy to with they tried to portray as entrapment by the fbi. the judge is having none of that. he city was discovered of -- he said he was disgusted by michael flynn's behavior. so the judge not showing any sympathy or love at all for michael flynn. david: that is going forward, the sentencing proceeding, as we speak. we will come back to you, but
for now we will go to washington and kevin cirilli. it appears the white house could be backing down from threats to shut down the government. kevin: sarah sanders saying they do not want the government shutdown, but lawmakers on capitol hill are hard-pressed to find whether the president will back off the $5 billion for the mexican border, to fund of the wall. president trump tweeting illegal immigration has cost more than $200 billion a year, how is this allowed to happen? and yesterday he tweeted, it is time to save billions of dollars a year, and have far greater safety and control. chuck schumer said publicly on sunday that he does not wear exactly president trump is going to get the wall. it outcome says lawmakers, those who lost reelection included, want to get out of here. this all comes with democrats set to take the house on january 3. david: but isn't there room for
some minority, the 5 billion -- for some maneuvering, on the $5 billion, or they say they will give some money, but what you do with it is your business. kevin: they could have a short-term extension, which the white house has said they do not want. but it is an option on the table. the bottom-line is, they have to get some type of deal by friday at midnight or there will be a partial government shutdown, about 20% of the government would close. folks in the federal government, many would be paid on the backend. and the securities and exchange commission, they would not be able to launch investigations either during a partial government shutdown. david: that will make some people happy. mark: you said it. [laughter] david: now we will go to rome. back and forth between italy and the european commission over the budget, where does it stand, are they close to a deal? >> well, they are closed because
it is almost the end of the year and they need to find an agreement. the populace government trying to convince the eu they made efforts on the budget, that they have cut spending, the deficit targets have come down from 2.4 to 2.04, and it looks like they will cut the growth target, they had an unrealistic target for next year, they said the budget would be expensive, so it looks like they will cut down on that as well. now, will this be enough? we do not know. tomorrow, the european commission will discuss italy. that much we know. but may be not decided yet on whether they will go into an excessive deficit procedure. that might take longer because italy needs to vote on the budget and of parliament will do that by the end of the year. so we won of something by december 31. david: even as you have been talking, a headline has come across, that they will be addressing lawmakers tomorrow if the eu decides on the budget.
is that indication that they could get a decision by the eu by tomorrow? >> they are very concerned. they have realized this is important, it affects the bonds and italy's financing. they are very sensitive, they will tell what they've decided. and they really want italians to understand that they are trying, that they want to keep their promises, that is important to them. there could be in election next year, we do not know, but they want to show an effort. we to not know if there will be a decision tomorrow, the government wants to show that they care and they want italians to be informed throughout the process. david: we will come back to greg. it turns out that the michael flynn sentencing is not the only sentencing involving president trump's administration, talk about the dissolution of his charity. >> the news this morning was the
attorney general gave her -- for the winding down of the trump charity. in 2016, it became apparent through reporting at the washington post about misuse of the funds, charitable funds for personal purposes, campaign purposes and a variety of other things. the new york attorney general launched an investigation that barbara underwood took over. and the foundation in his defense, failing members said we will wind it down, but the ag said no, that until she gives her a set. the investigation continues, it evolves allegations of violations of the federal law with the use of charitable funds for in the campaign, particularly in the iowa caucus. anyway, it is yet another legal headache for the president. david: the charity is dissolved come up with a proceeding continues. and there are other possible remedies that the new york attorney general is pursuing. >> although the near attorney
general is primarily civil prosecutions, other state actors like the manhattan district attorney could take on some of this and go after individuals for misuse of funds. and any action taken at the state level would be beyond the reach of a presidential pardon. david: going back for a moment, michael flynn, they have adjourned the proceedings. you said it would go on for a while. >> yes, and there has been back and forth. the judge has asked several times in the prosecution is through with the cooperation of michael flynn. they said they are, but they've asked michael flynn as well. it has not been going well for him, i think he wants a moment to consult with his lawyers about what to do. david: thank you. a check of the markets now. taylor: some green on the screen , trying to get back up to the highs of the day. not quite doing that, but we have gains of 1% or so.
what caught my eye was the nasdaq, nasdaq 100, the larger cap stocks outperforming. the chipmaker stocks really outperforming here. this after analysts at bernstein ine said they got so beat up 2013, that going into 2019, at least some green on the screen today. if you take a look at the 70 chart, the s&p 500 -- the seven-day chart, the s&p 500 is looking like a different story. money coming in at the beginning, the dumb money, but smart money closing the end of the day. aseries of failed rallies, you can see, and coming off again the highs of the session as well. and i want to take a look at what is higher today. ge, interestingly enough, getting some good news. the software firm up. you have darden up more than 5%. sectors inr biggest
their market, all of -- olive garden, doing better than expected. now they have revised their forecast. 70 straight quarters of rising sales. it is all about value and customer service for them. and boeing, $20 billion buyback, that will boost things. and commodities going lower. a little bit of concerns over china, global growth, you have supply concerns on the oil side pushing oil down to look at that. 47 yesterday, closing below 50 for the first time since october 2017. not a supply story. this is a demand story on slowing global growth. and in a lot of these getting beaten up in 2018. what that means for 2019, you might have to look to china for global growth and that story. david: commit, calls for congress to investigate deutsche bank lawn -- money laundering charges.
david: this is "balance of power." i'm david westin. now mark crumpton. mark: the white house says president trump is going to work with congress to avert a partial government shutdown. h has been threatening to vetoe any budget bill that does not include money for a wall. a number of government agencies will run out of money on friday night. arizona's governor has named martha mcsally to replace jon kyl in the u.s. senate seat that belong to gender -- that belong to center john mccain. ducey said that make sally will take over the resignation and take effect at the end of the
year. last month gone mix sally lost her race for the other senate seat. she will serve until the 2020 election, with voters will choose someone to serve the final two years of john mccain's term. the biggest government has decided to ramp up preparations for a no deal brexit. the brexit secretary says that while the government remains committed to prime minister theresa may's deal, it needs to be ready in the event it does not happen. on thetponed the vote divorce agreement until january. newn says his country's weapons have no foreign equivalents and will ensure russia's security for decades to come. speaking with top military in moscow, president putin specifically mentioned a new hypersonic missile and glide vehicle, saying they have boosted russia's military capability. global news 24 hours a day, online and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: thank you. senator chris van hollen of maryland has joined with the senator elizabeth warren to call on the senate banking committee to investigate deutsche bank compliance with federal regulations. we are welcoming the senator from capitol hill. thank you for joining us. >> great to be with you. david: give us a sense of what provoked the letter, the letter that you wrote to the chairman. it says, "the compliance history of this institution raises questions about the national security and criminal risks posed by its u.s. operations." why deutsche bank? >> because the evidence continues to mount about the fact they have any vehicle for money laundering. w have seen many casese in the u.s., now we are seeing them around the world. of course, the german government raided their offices.
so without it was time to take a look at this, especially since the senate banking committee has looked into potential changes to the bank secrecy laws and anti-money laundering laws, so we should figure out what does not work and what does work. deutsche bank would be very illuminating as an example. david: we have a justice of our own, authorities that normally pursue these things, and not to lead the witness, but is there concern on your part that deutsche bank's relationships with the trump organization may pull back on the normal enforcement proceedings? >> yes, i am worried about that. i have written previously to deutsche bank on that very issue. we have not gotten a response from deutsche bank. i asked of them questions about that relationship for the reasons you are suggesting, which is they have been the
lender to the trump organization, and there is evidence that a very easy on the trump organization, when it was not paying its debts on time. i think it creates a conflict of interest. so i think we need to look into this for a variety of reasons. as you know, it looks like the house of representatives next year will also be looking into some of these issues. david: so that is in your capacity as a member of the banking committee, you are also on the appropriations committee and a government shutdown is looming. even today sarah sanders may be changing position, saying maybe they will compromise. will we have a partial government shutdown come friday? >> we would like to avoid it. i saw the same comments by sarah sanders, everybody trying to interpret those. the issue is not about border security. we had bipartisan proposals for
strengthening border security, which we need to do, this is about not wasting taxpayer dollars on an unnecessary wall for large lengths of the u.s. border. and we all heard the president tell the country that he would be proud to shut down the government if he does not get his way. well, he is not going to get his way on that wall from the congress, so i am hoping they are looking for plan b. david: there was a time not long ago when it seemed there could be a deal between the democrats and the republicans and the white house, that would have allowed the president to have money to use on the wall, maybe something else, but also have relief for the dreamers. we do not hear about the dreamers anymore. is there room for a compromise that would put it back on the table? >> you are right, that was under discussion many months ago. that was after the infamous
media at the white house where president trump said he wanted a "bill of love." and members of the house went to work on a bipartisan basis. we produced a bipartisan agreement that provided a pathway to citizenship for the dreamers. also included amounts of funding for border security. and you may remember, as a last-minute the president pulled the rug out from under the deal. senator susan collins from maine was very upset about what the president and department of homeland security did. so they sabotaged it. it does not look like that can be re-created, given the president's position. david: if he came back and said, i will take that deal, is it doable? >> at this point, there is not enough time really to put it together. we are talking about by this friday, so let's move ahead with funding, at least a continuing
resolution. i prefer to see us pass the seven remaining appropriations bills. we passed appropriations bills for the department of health and human services, education and department of defense. but it is ridiculous to be talking about a government shutdown, even if it is just a partial government shutdown. it would be very disruptive. david: you are on the banking committee, appropriations committee, we had a report come out for the senate intelligence committee yesterday on some of the developments with respect to facebook and other social media platforms. what is the sentiment among the senators, because one thing the report said was perhaps facebook had not been forthcoming about the degree to which instagram had played a substantial role in russian attempts to interfere with the presidential elections -- how much concern is there on whether you are being told the truth? >> i think that congress will take another look at all the
issues regarding russian interference in that election, including what may or may not have been done by american companies to stop it. but of course, the conclusion from the report was not new, that russian interference, that they interfered to hurt candidate clinton and help candidate trump. but there is a lot more detail, as you indicate, so we need to further pursue this. most important link in need to make sure it does not happen again, which is why senator rubio and i introduced a bill called the deter act. we plan to reintroduce it next year. the senate intelligence committee report underscores the need to do it. and it is very simple. if we catch the russians interfering again, or in other countries, there will be very swift, automatic penalties they will pay in terms of economic sanctions, because you want to send the signal up front, not
after the fact, that if we catch you again there will be penalties. and the purpose is to deter them from engaging in that activity to begin with. david: you mentioned senator rubio, bipartisan, what is the sentiment on the hill in the new congress to get legislation like that passed? >> even at the end of the last congress there was considerable bipartisan support for the concept. there were a lot of details to be ironed out. i hope that given this most recent senate intelligence committee report, which provides that additional detail, that it will provide momentum to get this done early in the new year. because just because russia did not interfere in the midterm elections in a major way, does not mean they will not be back at it again in 2020. david: so finally, your democratic colleagues senator mark warner has a proposal that would say you need to disclose
the location of the people posting on social media, is that something you would be open to? or are these different approaches? >> i think we need to look at all these things as a means of, number one, deterring foreign governments from interfering in our elections. but also when it comes to what is happening in our own country, providing transparency and accountability. i am open to looking at a lot of these ideas. the interact -- the deter act, we have spent time narrowing it down to get bipartisan consent, so i hope we can move on it earlier in the new year. david: i hope you come back and tell us about the progress on that bill as we get into the new year. chris van hollen, senator from maryland. and special coverage of the fed decision on bloomberg television starting at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. alan greenspan among guests. stock of the hour, shares of
david: you are watching "balance of power." tilray, the grower of medical marijuana getting a new global partner. novartis signing a comarketing deal to distribute marijuana globally, sending their shares soaring. romaine bostick is here to explain all of this. romaine: tilray was the pot stock on fire, a lot of that because of what people were looking at with regards to recreational use, but what we know is the medical side of the marijuana movement is much bigger. we are talking about in industry -- an industry that is expected to quintuple over the next five years, well above the pace for
recreational use. so this partnership with novartis, they've had a deal with them in canada for a a while, but this expands it. brandon kennedy, the chief executive officer, gave in interview and talked about credibility. a hown thed idea that if you walk into a pharmacy or some other business and you see tilray, and you see the label next to it, it lends credibility to their product, credibility they do not have right now. david: maybe even in europe, you see that label any will believe in it. tilray makes the stuff and then novartis will market and sell it? romaine: they will work on marketing and on ways to market and commercialize it. they will co-brand certain products, they will brand of them together and develop new products. and then there is a push to theyte pharmacists where can educate the consumer about what their options are.
they already have product in canada, oils and capsules, so it will be an expansion of that. david: sometimes when deals like this get done it is a stepping stone to larger integration, could there be more down the road? huge m&athere is a premium bill into them, so whether it is novartis or canopy or other companies, you are seeing this more and more. david: romaine bostick, co-anchor of "would you miss -- what'd you miss?" coming up, how much has the strategy changed in afghanistan? this is bloomberg. ♪
the judge told michael flynn "you sold out your country." notjudge told flynn he was hiding his discussed. flynn pled guilty to lying to federal investigators. the robert mueller's team has recommended no prison time because of cooperation with that office and other prosecutors. president trump has agreed to shut down his embattled personal charity. there has been allegations he has used it for his personal and political benefit. the remaining funds will begin away. the state is still suing the charity, the president, and his three list children over the matter. city is quiet after a cease-fire went into effect. u.n.greement came during -sponsored talks last week.
a committee will oversee the cease-fire. the port handles about 70% of the country's imports. organizers of an upcoming vatican summit on sex abuse prevention are warning that the credibility of the roman catholic church is in jeopardy over the abuse scandal. organizers today, said the first step is "acknowledging the truth of what happened." invited jewish leaders to respond -- church leaders to respond to the crisis. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: the united states has now had troops in afghanistan for 17 years and in iraq for 15, yet we hear little about the conflict today.
our guest comes today from washington. great to have you with us, sir. , tell us whate the situation is on the ground with the taliban. what is our situation? what is our goal? militarily, we are trying to hold about what i consider to be a resurgent taliban. they are doing quite well on the ground and the afghan security forces are at best holding them. are view right now is that diplomacy is the way to go -- right now is that diplomacy is the way to go, somehow braying the taliban into the political field and focus extensively on al qaeda as the single enemy for both the taliban and us.
david: there have been several times we have tried to talk to the taliban. what might be different this side -- this time? is moreually think it of an impetus on our side. they have always wanted to talk. the afghan government itself has been the obstacle. the have not wanted to talk to the taliban. we have pressured them so that now we will be talking to the taliban. that has opened an opportunity to sit down a negotiate a final status in afghanistan. david: let's move to iraq. give us an update on iraq. . what is the situation there? have they been compromised as badly as president trump has said? >> president trump is spot on on how successful we have been in iraq. the strategy from 2003 to 2011
is completely different than the strategy we are using now. now we are not doing the fighting. the number of casualties have been less than 10. on the other hand, the iraqis are doing the fighting themselves. they have taken tens of thousands of casualties and virtually pushed isis out of the country. there are still some remaining pockets. but the combination of. air support,.s. ground support from artillery, but the iraqis doing the fighting themselves has proved a positive strategy. david: what role, if any, does iran play? out one point, we weren't allies -- at one point, we weren't allies, but we were working toward the same end, it seems. >> the militias stood up when
the iraqis were fleeing from the battlefield. , the first people inside of iraq to train them and equip them where the iranians, the revolutionary guard corps. side-by-side.ing i think it this client, there is a question about post isis. will happen to the militia and how influential iran has become -- what willy happen to the militia and how influence shall iran will become in the country. david: what is their role right now? how influential are they? ? and what is the opposition from israel?abia with >. i will accept of their -- i will accept their influence, but i
will not accept their interference. be, as wewants to have wanted it since 2003, a strong sovereign state. it is not a suburb of riyadh either. large, a very important country in the region, how stable is it? size. are right about the they are considered to be the center of the arab world. sadly, their population growth has been almost exponential. they hit 100 million this month. the gdp is 1/5 of the average in the world gdp for capital. poundad to the value the by two thirds this time last year from six to the dollar to 18 to the dollar.
every time i spent time in egypt, i get the sense, even though inflation is now under check, the foreign reserves are being held up. there is a real disconnect between the government and the people. i don't think that bodes well either in the near term or the long-term for the cc government. david: what does it mean for the possible insurrection? we had the muslim brother for -- muslim relative to brotherhood come forward. is there a fundamentalist uprising again or an insurgency in egypt? >> i don't think there will be a fundamentalist from the muslim brotherhood. it is not a vacuum to be filled by the clerics, but it will promote a stability. repression. that is never a prescription for
good things happening in a country. david: the middle east is fiendishly complicated. and has been for a long time. whats the greatest risk -- is the greatest risk? what is the threat you identify? >> the greatest near-term concern i have is that we accidentally blunder into some sort of operation against the asnians, whether it is seen a maximum pressure campaign by the administration, whether it is the sanctions that start writing, some unintended invent unintendediting, some intende event, i'm most concerned about the u.s.-iranian tension in the region right now. david: thank you so much. coming up, saudi arabia rolled
been bogged down in a war in yemen and the crown prince has connected to the murder of journalist jamal khashoggi. they were going to have the ipo of aramco. they were going to have a sovereign wealth fund. are they on track? >> they are not on track. saudi vision 2030 is more than an economic vision. a crackdown on any extremist forces, a move to a more left,te islam, and on the
if you will, and power in the youth of the country to form a thebase of support for regime. first, the modernization of society, women driving, entertainment, things that appeal to young people. that, while this strategy made a lot of sense, the tactics that have been employed have undermined the execution of saudi vision 2030, both in terms of external and internal investment. ago, the four direct investment was about $7.5 billion. this last year, -- the foreign direct investment was about $7.5 billion. saudi money has flowed out of the country. the need to move to a private , the resources
are drying up. we would talk to business partners and acknowledge that there is no rule of law as we know it, but things kind of get done. but you add to that a government that appears arbitrary and vindictive. then foreign investors will be on the sidelines. it is difficult to see most boards of investors -- boards of directors wanting to intervene. a globalrpiece of economy is you have to have entrepreneurs. the campaign to crack down on any dissenting opinion, you don't have critical thinking going on because people are afraid to talk. you neededl dynamic, to move from a government-sector economy to a private-sector
economy, it's just not working. david: so the need to reform the government, not just society. to some extent, what we are watching -- this could be true for the war in yemen or how they handle the prime minister from khashoggi --mal they need some constraints on the government, indeed on the crown prince himself. is there any openness to that? is there any realization even from the crown prince's part that he will have to change his ways? >> again, inside the royal family, you can only guess. there are some indicators. saulmanan -- prince -- back from what you will see is the government ringing more seasoned members of the royal family coming in to advise prince
muhammad bin salman as a first step. that a lot of the foreign-policy decisions he has made our arbitrary and inconsistent with the traditional consensus-based thinking that we are used to seeing in saudi arabia. certainly, we need to encourage them to complete this campaign riffmen, to breach the they have with qatar, because you need a consensus among the and takes of the gcc, give more maturity to some of the decisions, like the locking and some have torture -- reported the of women simply because of the decision to allow women to
drive. these are things that really put saudi arabia in a bad light in the world. david: you mentioned the conflict in yemen. the crown prince thought it would be successful in short order. it is taking longer than he anticipated. our u.s. senate passed a resolution condemning it. they came back with a statement saying they kingdom anygorically rejects attempts to undermine its sovereignty or diminish its stature. if they are using u.s. weapons, doesn't the u.s. senate ultimately have some clout here? >> the u.s. senate does. the senator was quoted this morning, when the saudis pushback on our criticism of the murder of jamal, then you have saudis putself, the
together a hit team against an american resident in a foreign country and now we are accused of interfering in their domestic affairs? i'm sorry, the senate has a vote. i applaud the senate's courage in standing up and saying the united states is actually a country of values and that our values have value. raytheonu worked for as well as having a distinguished career in the military. is it possible this is a good time to invest in saudi arabia? can sometimes you invest at the -- because sometimes you invest at the bottom of them market. >> yes. but the siding where the bottom is is the challenge -- but deciding where the bottom is is the challenge. we do not know if we are at the bottom. if you look at the fed side, the reality is the saudis have
penned their long-term security on the united states. the interoperability of our , ifems and, the fact tha they are in trouble, the united states will be there to support them. that has been true the last 70 years. as far as investment, it carries real risk because you don't know where the bottom is. david: fair enough. we will hear now from stan druckenmiller next. this is bloomberg. ♪
i know there is a narrative out there that the fed will lose credibility if they came into trump here. i could not agree more, that it would be horrific if the fed were to pause because they were bullied by donald trump. i also want to think that it would be horrific if the fed pause because they are afraid people would believe they were bullied by donald trump. let me just say that a stock isck -- a stopped clock right twice a day. president trump is a low interest rate guy because he is from the real estate industry. beca -- because
just because he thinks it is not a good idea right now, does it mean it's true. we need to take him out of the equation. much more do politics play into your investment process and the trump era? >> a lot and i stink at it. learned this business to solve economic puzzles and trying to think 18 to 24 months ahead. thinks one ordent two days ahead at the most, it is very hard. obviously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist. they have a powerful impact on markets. it's tough because economic signals and economic puzzle solving is something i have done for a long time and i have some confidence in it. politics will play
out, i'm not so sure. i happen to think the china thing will work itself out because both sides i think desperately want a deal, both trump and xi. but i don't know. i don't have the kind of asfidence in that forecast the economic stuff i have been doing for 40 years. so it plays a big part. but the major part is quite unnerving. erik: does it matter if the government shuts down? >> i don't think so. that's a lot of nonsense. it will reopen again. it is discouraging to see the theater. more of the same is a great term for it. david: that is stan druckenmiller with erik schatzker. flynn.g news on michael the judge has agreed to postpone the sentencing to allow for more cooperation. we are looking at a live shot in
mark: a federal judge has agreed to postpone sentencing for former trump campaign advisor michael flynn. 's attorneys had her -- his attorneys had requested it. the judge told flynn "you sold out your country." he was notold flynn hiding his discussed or disdain for his crimes. the white house says president trump is willing to work with congress to revert a possible partial shutdown of the
government. will veto any bill that does not include funding for a wall. from the senate intelligence committee suggested that moscow's efforts to help donald trump in 2016 were more wide-ranging than originally thought. a kremlin spokesman says the report is trying to blame russia for social tensions in the u.s. the trump administration is moving to officially banned bump stocks, which allow