tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg December 20, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
david: from bloomberg world had risen new york, i'm david westin. welcome to balance of power. anna edgerton on the drama over whether to shut down the government. indictments now announced on chinese hackers. and the chances of a second brexit referendum. what is going on? without they had a deal to keep the government open until february. it is awfully apart. >> it was quite the morning on capitol hill. we were watching members trickle out getting increasingly pessimistic. efforts, chris collins from new york said it looks like we have a deal. we will vote on this bill. the president will sign it. then mark meadows saying that this shouldn't happen, that the president should veto it. to president is not willing
sign a bell even if the house is willing to pass it. we'll come back to you in a moment. metta kevin -- now to kevin in washington. a dramatic announcement from the department of justice today. kevin: this is part of a in coordination with u.s. allies to go after, name, shame, and expose a campaign by chinese intelligence agencies of hacking. are accusedhackers for hacking 45 different company, as well as u.s. government agencies, such as nasa and the u.s. navy.
david: there's also the investigation going on of russia by bob mueller. mr. mueller well take his time and not even referred to president trump. kevin: as best we can tell, we are expecting a series of legal filings. these may or may not be indictments in the coming months. very maybe all the pieces surrounding the president -- they may be all the pieces running the president. a little bit of clarity and a fair amount of uncertainty, at least publicly, about exactly how that will play out. london.ow we go to the one thing we thought we knew the prime minister did not want a second referendum. now she has a cabinet member
saying that maybe it's not a bad idea. cabinet rudd, the minister saying a second referendum is a plausible option, said that she was speaking for herself and at the prime minister. nevertheless, this throws the second referendum into play. the bookmakers here have been giving increasing chances to it. it is not an easy thing to happen. not only do you need to get the entire parliament to agree on how they will hold the referendum in what the question would be, and the question is a really tricky thing, because part of parliament would like to have no deal as an option. the other part would like to have remaining in the eu as an option. i'm not sure we will get agreement on those two halves even if theresa may did embrace the option of a second referendum. david: could they possibly get that done by march 29? or do they have to withdraw
their withdraw from the european union and start all over again? >> there is an in between option. it is tricky to get a second referendum. the legislation that would need to be put in place, the question, the campaign done in time. they could ask that you for an extension of article 56, not revoking it. simply saying they want an extension of the two-year timetable that ends on march 29. 27 countries would have to agree to grant that. the eu would probably say ok to that, but it throws another uncertainty into the mix. david: we see more and more possibilities as we -- the longer we go into this process. is go back to capitol hill -- let's go back to capitol hill. w tweeted trump has not
out that, when he signed that big omnibus bill, he would get the border wall funding. it did not happen. he grumbled about that bill when he signed it. anna: when sarah huckabee sanders said the president will step back and see with us and then he will weigh in, that's when i served getting nervous because i saw similar signals from the white house for what he -- when i started getting nervous because i saw similar signals from the white house. -- he kept signage is on edge before he signed it. now he is doing the same thing before the house had a chance to vote on it. has a lot of people whispering in his ear and now, a lot of conservatives, a lot of outside people say he will have real problems with his base if he doesn't get wall funding. david: is it people from -- is it from people who care about
immigration or those concerned with the deficit? anna: it is definitely from freedom caucus members, but more from -- i guess you can call it mainstream conservatives. theformer chairman of republican senate committee said we have to stick to our guns on this wall funding. we don't have much information on how effective $5 billion will be for a wall. i spoke with a republican from texas who said $5 billion is a number they just pulled out of the air. it is a number that doesn't mean anything. it is to something they have to fight over. david: thank you. now let's get a check on the markets which are falling. it is a big story again today. is, jittery, it reaction from the major averages once again. the dow, the s&p 500, the 1.5%., all down more than the russell 2000 also down 1.7%.
the small-cap index, which earlier this year led stocks higher, now officially in the bear market. at session lows, the nasdaq had 2.3%.own at that point, the nasdaq, from its all-time high peak, had been down more than 20% from that peak. that is considered an official bear market. the russell 2000 already in that territory. it is an amazing story. if we look at what happened to the stock before the fourth quarter and after the fourth quarter it is a, tale of two tapes. going into the fourth quarter, we see solid gains for each of these major averages. the nasdaq up nearly 70% despite the fact that it had its first monthly -- nearly 17% despite the fact that it had its first monthly decline. we are looking at a bear market for the nasdaq and the russell 2000. we have the other indexes sharply lower.
they continue to -- investors continue to weigh many factors, trade wars, the fed. at the end of the day, it comes to the corporate profit outlooks. investors saying we could see more revisions to the downside for the corporate profit outlooks. we have had some of that happened today. let's look at some of the earnings laggards. these are the worst laggards for the s&p 500. an earnings miss of 1.2% revenue miss -- sales miss, i should say. a'space for the worst day's 2001. twitter also down, not on earnings, but a bearish dirt on it.0 price i down 9.8 percent, which is interesting because it came on a disappointing first-quarter. it was interesting to happen best to what happens.
in that's -- it was interesting to see what happens. if this was an bear sinner for you, the biggest point drags here, microsoft, apple, and salesforce.com. this is not on news. it is just uncertainty investors are feeling. we used to have to buy the dip action. now we have to sell the redaction. -- the rip action. david: coming up, not dovish enough for the fed. now renewed shut down fears. we will talk with austan goolsbee about what is weighing on the markets. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
david: this is balance of power on bloomberg television. we turn now to mark crumpton for bloomberg first word news. mark: the united states has accused two chinese nationals for coordinating with officials on a decade-long hacking campaign. the justice department officials put the pressures on beijing to rein in its alleged pattern of stealing intellectual property and other data. >> we want china to cease its illegal cyber activities and honor its commitment to the international community. but the evidence suggests that china may not intend to abide by its promises. mark: deputy general rosenstein of dojhat more than 90% cases alleging economic espionage over the past seven
china, as do more than two thirds of the cases involving the theft of trade secrets. ethics officials in the justice department have told acting attorney general matt whitaker that he does not need to recuse himself from overseeing special counsel robert mueller's russia investigation. that's according to a cnn report. whitaker expected to tell senators about this development later today. north korea has raised the stakes for president trump's efforts to hold a second summit with kim jong-un. pyongyang says it will not remove its nuclear arsenal unless the united states takes its nuclear weapons out of the region. the north insists the two sides agreed to the denuclearization of the korean peninsula. american officials assert that korea.ferred to north in london, british troops may be sent into help hunt drums that airport. down gatwick police have been searching the area around the airport for operators of drones spotted less
not. after 15,000 people have had their flights disrupted on one of the busiest travel days of the year. the drone flights were deliberate, although probably not terror related. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: yesterday, the federal reserve moved just rates up but said, going forward, it would be more data dependent. and although jay powell said they would be making adjustments as appropriate on the rates, it would not be changing its plan for reducing its balance sheet. road for thee balance sheet has been smooth and served its purpose. i don't see us changing that. i do think we will continue to use monetary policy as the active tool on monetary policy -- the rate policy as active to
a monetary policy. we have austan goolsbee. one of the things we saw yesterday as we observed the markets during the news conference, they particularly reacted to say we will be on autopilot on the balance sheet. he drew a firm distinction on how the fed will use the balance sheet on rates. do you agree with that approach? >> you can choose your poison however you want. i think the balance sheet, they wanted to put it on autopilot and i think they are right to put it on autopilot. remember, in the way back machine, to the days of the taper tantrum and others, when the fed has expressed that it will have to -- have discretion and choose what to do with the balance sheet each meeting, it just adds a whole extra layer of volatility and uncertainty. everybody says but what are we
going to do with about see this time? they want that thing to be on autopilot. but you do need to remember, i think, that that is a tightening of monetary policy. while that is happening, it is tightening monetary policy. so the rate rising environment is happening with that as its backdrop. so the impact of increases in the interest-rate, if anything, they are more extreme than they might otherwise be because that is also happening simultaneously. it,d: they will stick to put pressure on the balance sheet. does it make sense for them to -- they went to three rate hikes. basically, the rates have been going up -- the financial conditions the last 60 days have tightening -- have been
tightening. >> i agree with that>>. i have simin -- >> i have been saying for some time i don't think the economy is as strong certainly as the administration claims it is or as the fed forecast says it is. 4%hink growth is ok, but the growth of the second quarter has fallen into the threes in the third quarter, is going into the twos in the fourth quarter. and next year is looking somewhat feeble. i just think everybody should take a step back and scope out the situation and figure out is it really as strong as we want it to be when we start tightening? given that we are already tightening on the balance sheet. indicatingare they they may well raise another two times next year at this point? again, i will put up another chart that shows two mandates --
employment and inflation. inflation is not rising very fast at all. employment is in really good shape. what is driving the fed at this point? >> it's that. they look at the two mandates and they say, whoa, the unemployment rate is so low is that -- so low that we must be about overheat. let's move preemptively. that's a model. i think there is an economic model in the minds of the people that advocate that the most strongly. say, every quarter, they have put out a forecast for what judy p -- what gdp growth is going to be for something like --six quarters in a row
going to be. for something like 30 six quarters in a row, they have 36 quarters in a row, they have been wrong. it may be true this time, but at least i would like the people advocating that most strongly to reconcile or give some explanation why this time is different than the previous times they made that argument. the mostkes us to important question yesterday as well. the stock markets seem to be indicating one thing. they are really selling off again today. i interviewed brian moynihan. the economy is in really good shape. is the market anticipating what is going to come? or is it disconnected? is it overreacting to the phenomenon we are seeing? >> i don't know. that is a good question. the market is forward-looking. so i think mostly the market
reacts to what they think is going to happen. admire a fan -- look, i chairman powell, that, a, you've muchhe president pretty unprecedented and inappropriate way weighing in, saying i don't want you to raise rates, which parenthetically and ironically probably forces the fed to be a little tougher on raising the rates than they might otherwise be so they can't be accused of being under political influence. that, be, i don't think the fed b, i don't-- but, v think the fed should be paying that close attention to the market gyrations. what is reallyay making the markets nervous is the of predictability. some of that goes back to
president trump, especially with respect to trade. it is not limited to him. we have france. we have brexit. is that really part of the influence on the market that takes a beyond what the economics might suggest? but i don't yes, even consider that beyond what the economics suggest. absolutely, that's part of what the economics suggest. you see it in italy, in france, in different places but the u.s. economy is far bigger than any of those places. so if you have the two largest economies in the world descend into a food fight escalating trade war, my opinion is you will have a recession in both countries. i think the world knows that. the markets are only knows that. when the president or anybody says something that makes them unlikely, you see the market go crazy and they say what are we going to do? layer that on top of -- we have
had an amazing run over a decade. things in different parts of the frothy, atystem look times when prices are very high and things look frothy and then you start adding geopolitical risk to a rate rising environment, plus when he got the balance sheet, you can see what people are nervous. david: you persuaded me. [laughter] thank you so much. it is always great to talk with you about these things. still ahead, more on the market selloff. near session lows now. 1%.indices are up well over investors add to concerns, concerns about a possible u.s. shut down that the president is meeting on right now. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
markets are tumbling again today. explain to us what is going on. on the s&p 500, we are back to the lowest level we have seen since september 8. i want to show you the drawdown. when you think about the fact that we were just on a record high on the s&p, this september, we were down from that. this is the biggest draw down since the financial crisis. the last time we saw drawdowns like this was for things that were a lot scarier. david: are any particular sectors leading it? momentumof the big stocks, amazon, twitter, they are leading the charge down. eighting ofthe wi some of those companies, that is really drawing it down. there frothiness? >> yes.
we have seen it over the past two or three months. we were getting to the stage where there wasn't any positive when you have the issues in washington when you have the potential government shutdown. david: and president trump could let us out of the china trap if you wanted. up next, we will become covering the markets, which are following. all three down over 1%. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ there's no place like home ♪
mark: nancy pelosi says toocrats are prepared support the continuing resolution to keep the federal government operating until february, but that the gop is in the middle of a meltdown. pelosi says there is bipartisan support for a number of measures but the funding for the border wall with mexico continues to be a sticking point. >> let's see what they come up with in terms of disaster assistance. we will see. but in terms of wall funny, that is a nonstarter. i think they know that. mark: president is meeting with house republicans to discuss the bill.p . any migrants hitting toward the southwest border to seek asylum in the u.s. will have to wait in mexico until their claims are processed. that's according to the terms of an agreement between the two countries announced. today. that will affect tens of thousands of people each month. only about 9% of people are actually granted asylum. the trump administration says
too many migrants make false claims. vladimir putin praised president trump's decision to pull american troops on syria. he called the move the right thing to do, although he is skeptical about whether it will really happen. he also said he agreed with president trump's of you that --amic's -- trumps view that trump's view that a stall make state has been defeated in syria. fight allegations that he underreported his income. flynn has been in jail since november 19. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this week, we look at various areas around the globe and what 2019 might have in
store for them. tuesday, it was the middle east. yesterday, it was latin america. today, it is europe. welcome, heather. really good to have you with us. ofwill point out the level trade from the united states for those european countries. germany, u.k., france, italy -- let's start with the united kingdom. it is very much in the news these days because of brexit. there's been a lot of confusion about what will happen there. one of the questions is whether there will be a second referendum that the prime minister has vigorously resisted. but now we have amber red saying -- amber rudd saying that might be a possibility. >> i have said i don't want a people's vote or a referendum in general. but if parliament absolutely fails to reach a consensus, i can see a plausible argument for
it. but it is income and on mps to find defensive ground in parliament and to find whether the majority is there. thee frankly, i don't think majority of people want to be asked again how to vote. david: they have been working on months. months now, is there any real prospect that parliament will get their act together and come up with a majority view for one approach this? >> you are right. they do not have a majority view in the house of commons for any path. they don't have the veteran managed no deal. they don't have the votes -- they don't have the votes for a managed no deal. they don't have the votes for theresa may's deal. what the markets are starting to respond to is we are running out of time. 99.y is day
to have this amount of uncertainty, the u.k. has now invoked there no deal runwaytions to phone the in case there is a crash landing. the eu has announced its no deal preparations. ireland has as well. it feels like this is out of control. there is no unanimity in theresa may's cabinet. analytically, we have no idea which path they will go down before they start this meaningful vote likely the week of january 14 or perhaps a few days before that. david: are has been education for a second referendum. tony blair has been agitating -- there has definitely been some agitation for a second referendum. tony blair has been agitating for it. wasn part what amber rudd more -- it wass
more of a threat to the brexit tears -- brexiteers. what is the question on the referendum? is it to remain in the eu? to support theresa may's deal? or to leave again? it is unclear. they cannot even agree on what the question will be. what this peoples that will do, however, if they want to pursue this path, they will have to brexit. i think you will see signals from the u.k. after january, if they cannot get anything through, to postpone the withdrawal from the eu until they can manage this peoples vote, which would probably not be before july or even september. so this strategy is a kick the can down the road, a delay strategy. polling right now suggests that remain would win if there would referendum. but it would depend on what the question ultimately is and where the economy is and where the
mood of the british people is at that moment of the vote. david: let's go to italy that does now have an agreement with the european commission. 2% deficit of gdp. is that deal going to hold? >> i think this is a temporary cease-fire as well. both the eu and italy did not want this particular fight now. so the italian government did make some concessions. they basically delayed their plan of increasing the basic income for italian citizens while removing a lot of the pension reforms and cutting taxes. again, all this does is drive up italian debt, which is currently 130% debt to gdp ratio. the deal is to delay, which lowers the deficit to a little above 2%. and then the eu will not proceed with their procedures to punish italy for going over the budget
deficit. but again, this is all delay. nothing has been decided. everything has kicked the can down the road. i assume the italian government will proceed how they wish and they will a sickly do the european union to challenge them -- will basically dare the you. -- well basically dare the european union to challenge them. there is a lot to watch in italy as we head toward 2019. david: what about france? we had president macron have a real problem with the yellow vests. it was 30 ugly they had -- it was pretty ugly. they either made peace or had a cease-fire. >> this is a cease-fire. five weekends of demonstrations across france, the yellow vest movement, it has a growing list of demands, upwards of 42
different demands. it is a against president macron, his personal leadership style. it is against the fuel tax. it is a sickly about the periphery. so those who live outside major french cities, they feel abandoned. they feel their government does not serve them. so this is a leaderless protest and a far ranging protest. last weekend, it was the smallest of the five weekends. it has some extreme elements to it, both on the left in the right, which have caused great violence. but this is a dover. this -- but this isn't over. this is sort of a lull. i think in 2019, we will continue to see this movement. there is an unhappiness and a frustration and it is going beyond france. we start seeing it take up in belgium, even the netherlands. so we can see this amorphous frustration and anger against
governments and government policies and the 2019. it's not over and present macron has given -- president macron has given a lot back on reform. once you get a leader to reverse, it tends to give those demonstrators more encouragement that they can go farther and get more concessions from president macron. david: there was a day when we really turned to the chancellor west germany to be the ballast in europe. can germany still perform that role now that angela merkel is no longer the head of her own party and is basically on the way out? >> we are really witnessing a major political transition in germany. this started a little bit before germany's 2017 parliament elections. but now it has really accelerated with angela merkel stepping down as the leader of the congressional democratic union. now a different type of later
than angela merkel. what we will see in 2019 is this continued unhappy, grand coalition marriage between the cdu and csu and the social democratic party. the social democratic party is now literally withering. i think it will be really hard for them to increasingly remain in this coalition. we have three important german state elections next year. of course, the european parliament elections will roll across politics in europe. this could be the year that we see possibly germany going to new elections to legitimize a new leader of germany. so lots of change and nothing can move in europe unless germany is ok with it. so this could be an inopportune moment for germany not to be able to lead europe. cover.an awful lot the thank you so very much to heather connolly. trump and president
house republican leaders are meeting at the white house as we speak. the present has expressed reservations over the short-term government funding bill -- the president has expressed reservations over the short-term government funding bill. oil asor indices down, well, even treasuries down a little bit. this is bloomberg. ♪
special representative for syria said only three days ago -- >> the u.s. has three goals in syria. first is the enduring defeat of isis. we are well on our way to seeing that happen. the problem is isis will come back if the underlying conditions are receptive to that kind of ideological movement. david: hit to help us understand what this could mean is lawrence corp. he joins us today from washington. thank you for being here. before we get to the substance of the decision, help me with the process. did the president' -- did the president's own advisors know that was happening. yes, he had a meeting with general mattis and john bolton and mike pompeo. they all told him not to do it. was going toaid he do it because this is the third
time they tried to talk him out of doing this. wasess he decided now he going to talk again. david: what is driving him here? do we have a sense of that? is it as simple as he really feels badly about those young men and women over there in harm's way? does he feel badly about the casualties or is there something going on with turkey? >> number one, this is popular with his base. many americans feel we have been fighting too long in the middle east. number two, it distracts from all the problems going on with the molar investigation. ueller the mo investigation. and he is also trying to get the turks to buy our defense system. david: what about the kurds?
>> this is immoral to leave them alone. up thehe kurds that make forces who helped us beat isis .n raqqa and commodity turkey,on them now to who thinks they are all terrorists, which they are not, immoral.e is we know it to them to make sure, before we leave, that their future is taken care of. a precipitous withdrawal like this will not help. david: is anybody in favor of it? israel is not too happy either. >> israel is not happy. our european allies are not happy. -- waslition composed composed of 60 countries. envoy for thisur anti-isis coalition, said leaving now would be reckless. i don't know anybody who supports it in the region or in
the world. david: there's one person who does. president putin. he thought it was a pretty good idea. this is what he said. >> the presence of u.s. troops in syria is a legitimate. not been confirmed by the un security council or invited by the syrian government as we are. the u.s. does not have either. if they have made the decision to leave, it is the right move. david: you follow these things so closely. you have for so many years. what is going on? whenever there is a doubt, president trump seems to side with the russians. no doubt about the fact that the russians are happy about this because this keep says having a role in the eventual outcome of the future of syria. and the fact of the matter is there are other issues that trump is trying to work on with the russians, like the
intermediate nuclear forces agreement, the extension of a new start, the occupation and crime area -- in crimea. i don't know, but i think trump may be feels this will give him credibility with putin on some of these other issues. david: president trump really regards iran is a major threat. that we have mr. rouhani of iran visiting turkey. they are saying they can sort out syria. are we advancing their interest by pulling out of syria? >> no doubt about it. could havetayed, we gotten the russians to pressure the iranians to get out. but they wanted this, just as they are doing better in yemen. 's policy of getting out of the iran nuclear deal to prevent iran from expanding its influence, this does not help at all. david: i'm really curious about jim mattis, a distinguished
soldier. what is his -- what is his position in this administration? again and again to persuade the president of things. he is not always successful. --i think it was a civilian if it was a civilian in there, they might have resigned when they sent the troops to the border. but remember, he is a military person. military people are used to following orders. they make their opinion known and they follow it. that is one of the things keeping mattis in there. that's why it is not good to have a military person in charge of the pentagon. i think bob gates or any of the previous secretaries would be long gone by now if he kept ignoring them. david: the president doesn't have much support on capitol decision.is i will quote now from senator lindsey graham who said it would be an obama-like mistake.
and american withdrawal would be a big win for isis, iran, bashar al-assad of syria, and russia. does the united states have anything to say about this constitutionally? can it have any influence? >> no. you need congress is support. withdrawal, you can do that anytime. when i worked for reagan, we got out of lebanon. you are the commander in chief. you might need pressure to send them in or permission, but the -- but you don't need it to get them out. david: it is great to have you on on these national secured he matters. coming up, more on the markets. stocks are lower but off the session lows. the nasdaq at one point falling 20% from its intraday high. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
david: brian moynihan says uncertainty stemming from the u.s.-china trade war has already led some clients to work around the chinese market. >> it really depends on the client. some have already disrupted. they couldn't wait to find out what would happen. theirtarted reorienting supply-chain. they can't just pass through the price. or they think they can't pass through the price. sell a piece of clothing for $20, you cannot really raise the price. now you have to go through the work to move it to keep it going up in price to the tariff. so that has been disrupted. you have the uncertainty that this could cause economy's a will slow- economies down. there is an eu outline done
relatively quickly. my personal belief is we have to make progress on china, but it's hard. much harderre issues than just the question of tariffs and equal eating certain types of transfer pricing, things like that. why it's so hard? the competitiveness among countries. david: talking about china, how much of this is the trade tension? how much of it is the chinese economy? how vulnerable is the chinese economy? >> china is slowing down. they are talking about doing some stimulus to speed it back up. they need to continue for societal purposes, they continue --bring people from urban from agrarian to urban.
it has slowed down a little bit. that affects europe more than it affects the united states because of the linkages there. you see it in economies around the world. traditionally, they moved fairly quickly. you see them already starting to make some of those movements, but it has slowed down. moynihan.t is brian we will take another look at the markets now as they are headed back down again. they have come off session lows and now heading deeper into the red. all three major stock indices, even as we wait for the president of come out of the meeting over whether we will shut down the government. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪