tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg January 1, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
>> welcome to daybreak australia. haidi stroud-watts in sydney. >> i am juliette saly in singapore. we are canning down to asia's major market opens -- counting down to asia's major market opens. next: the stories in the hour. president trump calls top congressional leaders to a meeting after suggesting he's open to making a deal to end the government shutdown. stressing self-reliance, china's president hopes for change is unseen in a century preparing
for a major speech on taiwan. as an election year begins in australia, the prime minister makes an economic page two of her slumping poll numbers. it is a new year for markets. 2018will 2019 bring, after was very volatile for investors? u.s. stocks ended on new year's eve higher amid very low volumes, but 2018 was the worst year for u.s. equities since the theal financial crisis, biggest fall coming through for european equities since 2008, stoxx 600 down 13% over the course of last year. looking at asian markets, we saw on friday a little weakness from australia. hong kong's market was off 1.3%. japan hasn't traded since friday the 28th, when it lost around 0.3%, but we are expecting japan to come back online in the next couple days. close again today, along with new zealand.
looking at the futures, the city market looks like we could see a little weakness coming through when sydney stocks reopen. the australian dollar unchanged at 70.53. welling the sing dollar as with fourth-quarter adjusted gdp in about two hours, haidi. haidi: let's take a look at the first word news for you this morning. bolsonaro has been sworn in as brazil's president. the former army captain is promising to tackle crime, corruption and economic malaise. a new opinion poll suggests two months after his victory, 75% of brazilians think the new leader is on the right track. however, the real has given up most of its election gains. sally: north korean leader kim jong-il and -- kim jong-un used his new year's address for a pointed warning to president trump, saying they will take a
new path if the u.s. does not relax economic sanctions. kim reaffirmed willingness to meet trump again, but offered no new initiatives to advance talks that have stalled since their first talks in june. haidi: the australian prime minister started 2019 with a pre-election pitch to voters, promising tax cuts for drought affected farmers and record spending for schools and hospitals. a budget will be handed down in april, ahead of the national vote which must be held by may. sally: india will make physical settlements of all equity derivatives contracts mandatory starting april this year in a bid to reduce volatility and curb excessive speculation. the securities and exchange board says the change in rules will be from april to october. the move might add two short-term volatility around the
expiration of contracts on the last thursday of each month. politics looks to dominate in 2019, as it did in 2018, with president inviting top congressional leaders from both parties to a white house briefing on border security, after suggesting he wants to "make a deal" to end the government shutdown. is it going to be a happy new year when it comes to a detente? is this a sign of a potential break in the stalemate? joe: happy new year. well, it is the first or would be the first face-to-face meeting between trump and congressional leaders since the shutdown began 11 days ago,, but there has not yet been a public acceptance from democratic leaders for this meeting. we are told it would take place at the white house on wednesday, washington time, and it would by departmentefing
of homeland security officials on border security. trump himself is said to be taking part in the meeting, so that would open the way for at least some negotiating, taking t he measure of each side before the next step in the shutdown. sally: and what has been the strategy for the democrats in dealing with trump? joe: well, the democrats have been holding pretty firm. itk before this all began, appeared that there was a deal worked out. in fact, the senate which is under gop control passed some funding measures that would have kept the government going until next month, february, while negotiations would continue over the border wall funding. trump balked. he was coming under fire from conservatives, so he rejected that deal. and now with the house being set
to be taken over by democrats, nancy pelosi, chuck schumer, the democratic leaders have a bit more leverage. they seem to be planning to use it. does that suggest we won't see a quick ending to this? joe: it is unlikely something will evolve tomorrow. on thursday, the democrats have, they will take a vote in the house that would fund, put forward a funding measure that would get the government reopened, without money for the border wall that trump wants. the senate says they want to move without something that trump is going to probably back, so there is some room. not verycertainly readily or very quickly going to get the $5 billion he wants for border security, primarily the wall, and it is not clear
whether he is willing to defer the argument and compromise with less money or no money for the wall. haidi: a new year, same old problems. thanks very much, joe sobczyk in washington for us. still ahead, north korean leader kim jong-un delivers a sanctions warning to president trump in his new year's address. we bring you the details later in the show. up next, we will be live in beijing, with a key speech set on taiwan today after the island's president warned against continued threats from china. this is bloomberg.
down 0.8% after a pretty flat finish on monday. i am juliette saly in singapore. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. you are watching daybreak australia. trading starts shortly in asian equity markets after the christmas and new year holidays, hope to draw a line on a turbulent 2018. our next guest sees things remaining very volatile. stephen miller is an investment advisor, here with us in sydney. great to have you. >> great to be here. haidi: i will start out with this library, looking at just how badly analysts missed the mark. at the start of last year, we talked about volatility being the new normal. we have seen a decline of 15% in terms of how badly they missed, the biggest miss on estimates since 2002. how did we get it so wrong? we knew the fed was going to normalize, we new policy would be a factor. >> there is always a mess in
forecasting. beware of experts bearing forecasts. the reality is we forecast in an uncertain world. if it were not like that, we would never have recessions and would not have any volatility, and it would be perfect. that is certainly true of 2019. there's a myriad of possible outcomes. we might have a central case for you, but it is a central case for you and we should articulate it as a scenario among other competing scenarios, lb at -- albeit this mus might be the most likely one. a reminder, even if we issue forecasts about the equity ussiet, bond yields, a there is.s. dollar, often a widest be and of outcomes around that. you know,atile years, the range of outcomes will be bigger. syou implied in opening
remarks, that will be true of 2019 as well. haidi: with that diversity of market senses that everything is perfect or everything is awful. so what is 2019? does the fed dominate, or is it politics this year? stephen: referencing the previous question, something between everything is awful and every thing is ok. [laughter] i think politics does loom large in markets in 2019. i think, we know it does in the u.s. because of the nature of the trump administration. what i have been a little surprised about, how unremarked it goes in europe. merkel in government, but not in power. france is difficult to govern always, we know that. italy is struggling to bring together a budget deal. so the three biggest continental economies have issues, and i haven't even spoken about brezixit.
i think politics will figure large in markets, in global markets in 2019. and i talked about the u.s., but how theyven gone to might negotiate the trade tensions we have had three 2018, and how they unfold in 2019 as well. so yes, i do think politics will loom large in the thinking of markets in 2019. haidi: stephen, let's get to that, and how that can affect the fed's path. looking at my terminal at the moment, we are seeing the fed is now not even expected to hike in 2019. you think we could see at least one rate hike over the course of this year, but the market now predicting we could see rate cuts in 2020. so do we see more contraction in global growth this year, and delete potentially see recessionary concerns in 2020? stephen: look, i don't think recession is a central case, to go back to my earlier comments.
i think the u.s. retreats to something like trend. two percent or thereabouts. i worry about europe. europe has been in a growth funk, i sort of talked about that in my earlier comments. china pmi is now below 50. the biggest risk cases, the recession or very slow growth case, but i don't see a recession in the u.s. i do see growth retreating back towards something like two. i don't see inflation retreating much from two. i think the fed will do at least one more rate hike, probably two . i think the u.s. 10-year bond yield is probably overly pessimistic in my view. you know, i think with trend growth and inflation around that two or just above, the fed is probably warranted, if you like dovish lee raising rates about 50 basis points. that's probably the central case
scenario, but i do agree the biggest scenario one worries about in 2019, particularly given conditions outside the u.s., is that the world does tend to struggle on the growth front of little. haidi: and what does that mean for overall growth in china? we of course have the pboc, still with a little liquidity moving, but the fed could only hike perhaps once. china's economy certainly struggling very much, and as you alluded to earlier, the china-u.s. trade resolution, or dispute bubbling underneath. stephen: i think the chinese authorities have a difficult job, and have had a difficult job. they are sort of dealing with how they resolve this sort of structural access in credit thatts and how they rein in structurally, but at the same time dealing with what is
becoming a reasonably significant growth slowdown. so cyclically, there's one imperative on credit, and structurally there's another imperative, and they are in conflict, and managing those conflicts is the biggest challenge for the chinese authorities. for what it's worth, i think they will deemphasize the structural and focus more on the cyclical, and use various devices to continue easing policy, and part and parcel of that as we will see a weaker renminbi through 2019 as well, just because the chinese economy is struggling in the u.s. is doing ok. haidi: but this is the new normal, isn't it? you can call it the chinese slowdown, but really the normalization of growth. stephen: i think there is something to that. it is known in the literature as the middle income trap. that is probably overstating it a little. but when you are an emerging economy in the take off zone, you register growth rates year
after year of 10%. inevitably, you slow down. and china has a population too, that means growth will probably slow. so all those things conspiring. we have seen growth go from 10% to 8% to 6%, and at some stage this year we will start contemplating 5% and 4%. haidi: we still have the unresolved trade issue. that kind of strategic battle between washington and beijing, it looks like something that want a result -- won't be resolved by march? stephen: that's right, i think it's a little more than trade. early in 2018 we cast it as being mainly about trade, but the drumbeats on things like cyber-walls, islands in the south china sea, navigation rights and so on, there's a lot
of issues that are becoming a lot more prominent in the relationship between china and the u.s., china and the last, and i think you are right. to define it, you look around at geopolitics, it is probably the defining issue structurally of this age. the relationship between china and the u.s., china and the west, encompassing not just trade, but the other things i spoke about as well. sally: what does all this mean for australia? there was an interesting quiz in the sydney morning herald, it is true, the last time the rba raised rates was november 2010, and now looking at potential rate cuts in 2020 according to some analysts. what do you think the rba will do this year, and where do we see australian gdp? stephen: look, i, i think the rba, a lot of respect to the rba, by the way, i think they have given superb stewardship of the economy. but i do think that their growth
forecast for 2019, or at least the most recent one, is way too optimistic. i think that there gdp growth forecast for 2019 was around 3.25%. i think it will be some the closer to 2%. i think the impact of declining house prices on wealth and therefore household consumption will be the biggest drag on the economy. we mentioned china is beginning to struggle. that is our biggest export market, by far. there are some offsets out there in terms of public spending, particularly on infrastructure, maybe some business investment, but not sufficient i think for the rba to hit its growth forecast. you can throw in an election there as well, and economies don't generally do well into an election. so i think, don't hold your breath for any rate change in 2019. i think there's an interesting speech by the deputy governor two or three weeks ago where he did say that we do stand ready to cut rates, he said, if needed. the current rba thinking is the
next move in rates is up, that might still be the current thinking, but i don't think we will see them exercising that option through 2019. haidi: talking about the big issues of the year, last year. give us something investable. with alli do think, the caveats i mentioned earlier, i do think that the markets are probably too pessimistic. hat withif you marry tr my views about australia and rates, in the u.s. and rates. haidi: there are opportunities. stephen: i would be buying in accordance with one's own risk appetite, but the things i like hedged global, unhedged u.s. equities.
that's the sort of thing i am thinking is worth some contemplation in 2019. haidi: we wish you the best of luck with that. thank you so much for joining us. stephen miller, grant samuel funds investment manager in sydney, looking ahead to a brand-new trading year. plenty more to come on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. sally: i am juliette saly in singapore. you are watching "bloomberg daybreak australia." a look at the latest business flash headlines. macau gaming revenue growth beat analyst estimates in december, bolstering hopes of a rebound. bucked chineses economic weakness. rose 17% inue december to $3.3 billion, the
fastest growth since august. haidi: it could be some time before former rio tinto ceo sam walsh receives the bonuses he is owed by the miner. regulators continue investigating a $10.5 million payment made to a consultant on an iron ore project in guinea. walsh retired as ceo in 2015, and previously said he acted lawfully at the company. sally: china's crackdown on peer-to-peer lending claimed another victim. online intermediary is the latest to shut shop, and it will start refunding its 32,000 lenders after months of losses, a process it expects to take three to five years. yidai received investment from softbank's china venture capital in 2014. haidi: chinese president xi jinping makes a speech on taiwan
later on wednesday, after a media address stressing the importance of self-reliance amid china's economic slowdown and beijing's continuing tensions with the u.s.. tom mackenzie joins us from beijing with the details. 2018 was hardly a banner year for the chinese economy or chinese foreign policy, given the strategic battle going on with washington. what was kind of the tone of the takeaway from his speech? xi talking about "all sorts of risks and challenges" facing the chinese economy. and saying that despite those challenges, essentially china has been able to weather the storm in 2018. he talked about the number of reform measures put through, 100 different, more than 100 different reform measures, and talked about the economic indicators at a relatively reasonable level, about the continuing transition from the old drivers of the economy to high-tech drivers of economic growth, and that that was
continuing. he also talked about looking forward, his desire and determination to push through cut touted by policymakers to aid the private sector. the private sector getting more focused and policymakers in the need for support. talking to small businesses here, they quickly tell you about the pressures they are under, largely because of the deleveraging campaign and their access to credit. we had a reminder, if we needed one, of the economic challenges facing china when we got those latest numbers. the factory gauge numbers that fell into contraction for december. in terms of trade tensions, those have started to ease. you had the telephone call between president xi and trump with talks expected next week in beijing. but they have not yet fed into changes of the economic picture for china, so that will be in focus for policymakers. further down the line, the national people's congress in march, where we might get more
measures to support the economy. and the belt and road summit in april. that is an initiative by president xi which has come under fire from some countries involved. there may be some addressing of those concerns. those are some opportunities for policymakers to try to take steps to shore up the economy. leader warneds against threats from china in her new year address. what measures did she outlined to address those threats? tom: this was the first address, tsai major speech by ing-wen since the drubbing they got in local elections, surprising many of the pundits out there, for party suffering defeats in those local elections. she said that did not indicate the taiwanese people wanted to give up their sovereignty. and in terms of measures she wanted to outline to entice businesses back from china, taiwanese businesses, she talked
but it's 9:30 a.m. here in sydney. future is looking pretty lackluster, indicators down about .2% after what was a volatile holiday. the u.s. market suffering through their worst year since 2008, in terms of the aussie session, watch out for the big minors. and rio tinto with tropical cyclone penny hitting near one of its bauxite lines. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. let's get the first
word news, president trump has invited top congressional leaders from both parties to a white house reefing and border security after suggesting it was to make a deal to end the government shutdown. the imitation includes eight top leaders in the house and senate who convened on thursday. an earlier tweet, trump inc. and he was offering and all of branch to house democratic leader pelosi. haidi: and marking 40 years since the end of direct military rotation, using the earlier self-reliance.ss he cited a series of industrial and technological achievements in 2018 and said the government would keep growth from slowing to quickly. juliette: theresa may used a new year's video message to urge and the divisions of her brexit, saying the country has all it leaving thrive after
the european union. she said britain could turn a corner in parliament backs the deal she brokered with the e.u.. she has been in talks with her e.u. counterparts over the christmas break and will continue discussions this week. haidi: david einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old greenlight capital. it extended his annual decline to 34%. green light posted some of the of more's best returns than 20% in 2015. trading gets underway for a brand-new year. take a look at some of the superlatives, having such a rough year. generally the worst year since the global financial crisis.
year thatertainly a investors are glad to see the back of. actually did manage to have a bit of again on monday, trimming is lost for the year somewhat, but still december was its biggest monthly slide of the record bull run. bear markets in japan and europe. just a bit of a recap, we also , with a firstng and a law since 2015. three months earlier it was at a four-year high. in treasuries the lowest month. that is the backdrop against which investors are starting 2019. if the new year but a lot of those concerns are not going away, higher interest rates,
concern about slowing global growth, plus you have concerns about the u.s. shutdown, the political landscape in washington, you had a guess saying political turns will probably be even larger this year. so you have all these things , it looks like it will be a bit of a down day and that will keep a lid on volume as we start 2019. and all of that concern means people moving to safe havens. the end did have a rally again from for the position. what is behind 2018's out performers? right, the yen was up for a third year against the u.s. dollar, up about 2.7%, making it the best performer among major currencies. that's because it is seen as a safe haven, investors flocked to
it in times of uncertainty. of course you had the british pound being pummeled because of brexit, the euro under pressure with the italian budget concerns and you also had commodity currencies coming under some downward pressure with oil prices slumping. the australian dollar was the worst performer against the u.s. dollar, down almost 10%. with all that and with uncertainties abounding at the start of this year, analysts are saying the yen could actually maybe gain for a fourth year. thelays is keeping 107 for yen by end of 2019. juliette: don forget to check out our library for some of the
charts you just saw their. it's on the bloomberg terminal. has issued a warning to the united states in his new year's address. a less inflammatory than his bg year ago, he is threatening a new path if the u.s. doesn't live up to its promises. stephen engle joins us now from hong kong. were those comments war for the domestic audience or is he directly challenging president trump? of both.le bit it's different from last year when we were ramping up the rhetoric and we seem to be on the brink of some sort of brinkmanship, but where he actually said i have a nuclear button on my desk at all times, which donald then tweeted in response saying i also have a button and it is bigger and more powerful, and it works. so it's a little bit different situation now but kim jong-un in
his new year's address to his people pretty much showing some impatience or frustration with talks haveince stalled since the june summit in singapore, he says his patience is running out with the united states and threatened that the north koreans could take a new. he didn't say what that would be but he said he could take a new path in nuclear talks with the u.s. if it doesn't relax those tough economic sanctions. he did not offer any particular new initiatives and that is something we will have to read the tea leaves. that's why we look at this new year's address so closely. he did say he is willing to meet with donald trump again. which donald trump has said he wants to do as well, sometime in the early part of 2019. kim went on to say if the u.s. does not deliver its promises and miss judges our people's patients, we will have no choice but to seek a new path.
we will have to see what that new path might be, of course donald trump has been a bit preoccupied with the government shutdown, with the border, and the trade war with china. perhaps kim jong-un is getting a little short shrift on the attention span of donald trump. haidi: obviously a message to washington also carries a message to south korea and china, some of the neighbors that are implementing the sanctions. >> he was conciliatory toward the south koreans, saying he wants better relations in 2019 with the south as well as with china. he went on to say that -- i should say that the south koreans actually lauded the speech, saying it was the first time kim jong-un had used the word complete denuclearization. then again, north koreans have a
different definition of what complete actually means. to them we expect that means it also includes the united states removing their nuclear capable warships and other military assets. they don't have nuclear weapons on the peninsula but they do have nuclear capable arsenals and that is what the north wants to see removed from the peninsula. speech demand in the south stop its wargames with the united states. thank you so much for that, stephen engle in hong kong. it is an election year here in australia as well. the prime minister promising and recordcuts funding for schools and hospitals.
scott, 2018 was a tough one for the government. is touting the economic success of the coalition and making all these popular promises going to be enough to turn it around? >> you would think it is unlikely, opinion polls point -- .2 something approaching a landslide for the opposition labor party with the election expected in may. since becoming leader in august, scott morrison has really -- he really hits on labor and his policy seems almost inert, if you like. his government still seems divided between the moderates and the more right wing conservative elements of the party, which led to the former 's term beingr rolled in august as well. he does have one ace of his
a budget whichs will be handed down in april that could allow him to throw some sweeteners around most likely in the form of more tax cuts probably aimed at the middle class. what sort of policies are they were trying to think will resonate and help them when power? craig cc big opportunity in the energy and climate change space. that seems to be the biggest point of difference between the two major parties, since becoming prime minister, scott scrapped any sort of basic energy policy apart from trying to force energy companies to reduce prices for consumers. he has basically abandoned any attempt to legislate or regulate
any emission cuts in line with australia's paris commitments. they were wants to boost its subsidies for energy, renewable energy companies while also increasing commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions. the other thing labor has in its favor is its traditional strengths in increasing health and education funding, which may resonate with a lot of voters at a time of pre-stagnant wage growth. about our strays economic growth chugging along despite the revolving door leadership and some level of policy paralysis from the government. meaningfulbe implications for economic policy? be a slow probably burn to see how that will play out.
the ticket early because even though labor is expected to win , it is not expected to win control of the senate. that means it's legislative agenda will probably be thwarted and not be able to get everything through. any sort of big meaningful reforms that australian economists are crying out for, they were probably still have to wait. jason scott there in canberra with the preview of 2019, another volatile year when it comes to the political landscape here in australia. boom, wetment market will talk about the implication of politics and trade playing into all of that, up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. salytte: and i'm juliette in singapore. a new report says chinese investors appetite for offshore investment combined with the rising well will shape the future of the so-called wealth tech market. a management consultant produce that report and joining us from hong kong is there china cohead of financial services. thanks so much for joining us, a very interesting report. theyurious on what part can play to help investors. some of the hong kong banks are little more skewed away from retail investors. tell us how big data and ai can help. -- big datahe dana
mainly helps from one side from a product perspective. analyzing customer behavior aing big data as well as technology to forecast customers next moves. financial institutions will be able to provide more accurate estimations of what and who the customers are and what they want. it's also just opening up more access for investors as well that they may not have had. i find it interesting the role that social made he is playing in that, sometimes brokers tweeting what some of their calls are so people don't even necessarily have to pay for the service innocence. what role do you think social media play in helping the retail investor access their wealth more easily? question.ery good the reason behind why social media so important is a chinese
investors have some very different behaviors. the tend to do it by themselves. they are quite tech savvy, thanks to the ecosystems in china. haveactually prefer to low-cost or even free services. --t you mentioned about the sorry. let me jump in to ask you a question about how government regulation plays into all of this, because your report is really based on this theme of pent-up offshore investment assets from onshore chinese wealth, and that's been the case for a number of years. the problem is capital controls and investment controls, the
money tends to rotate from one arm domestically to the other. do you see that changing? do you see capital controls continue to curtail how much of that can find itself overseas? cliff: i think the capital constraints will still exist is an continue to have control over the capital outflow. i think the offshore wealth management will come from two sources, on one side it will be coming from immigration as well as the overseas education, the lifestyle changes of chinese consumers. side, taking down populationgh network to the less affluent population of china. even though the constraints were limited, the amount of money that could go offshore, but the quantities of chinese consumers
going offshore will still drive the growth of the offshore applications. haidi: at the domestic investment landscape when it comes to trot mark -- stock markets in china, it is still heavily retail oriented. do you see some of that diversifying away into offshore investment? 5% of right now, around the investable assets of chinese consumers are offshore. we think that number will gradually climb closer to 10%. it will rise from around $1.1 $3.5 -- u.s. to about $3.5 trillion u.s.. juliette: i was curious about how is helping investors involved with their investment decisions.
people prefer to go into the bank or speak to somebody on the phone. cliff: if you look at the channel preference, there are two markets, one is about the aslic market trading as well standard product sales. nonstandardvolves products sales. i would say the majority of the driven byket will be the online channel in the future, as you observed, more than 80% of it has already been driven online. the other part will still rely on offshore. what are some of the trends were you see china could lead the way in terms of help people build their wealth through tech? cliff: i think the major trends is theow in china, there
kind of power of wealth from china, it's a large market that will be 3.5 trillion in the future. there will be a large tech part which is more important. given the unique characteristics of chinese investors, i think those technology providers who are very good at providing convenient as well as low-cost solutions to those players, using the technology such as big etc. ai, blockchain, these will reshape the industry landscape and put some threats to the traditional financial institutions. thank you, cliff cheng . this is bloomberg. ♪
juliette: i'm juliette saly in singapore. indi: i'm haidi stroud-watts sydney. let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. tesla stocks falling as much as 2.5% on monday. the carmaker ramped up production to be to tax credit deadline. said they would face growing demand this year. netflix is expected to announce it has hired a new cfo. -- his currentce employer said on new year's eve that it planned to fire him. he has been activision's finance
chief since may 2017. the company said newman is unpaid leave and his employment soon.e ended saying earnings will rise 25%. rising 28%.019 that's almost it for daybreak australia this morning. markets arew the set to open after the new year's holiday new zealand markets remain closed again today as well as japan. higher for a fayette, seeing a more positive turn.
manufacturing pmi dropping later today, looking to add a little more when it comes to the economic slowdown in china. falling before the contraction level of 50. as we look ahead to 2019 for investors. >> we will be taking a look ahead at markets for 2019. our guest is long the japanese aussie and thehe kiwi. he is interestingly long gold. we will ask him all about those conviction call 20 we talked to him in the next hour. but that is it from daybreak australia for today. we will get all the action in daybreak asia with haidi in sydney and me here in singapore. we are seeing a little bit of uptick now for futures in sydney
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haidi: a very good morning and a happy new year. australian markets have just opened for trade. juliette: i'm juliette saly in singapore. welcome to "daybreak: asia." our top story, president trump called top congressional leaders to meeting after suggesting he is open to a deal to end the government shutdown.