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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  January 15, 2019 2:30am-4:00am EST

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matt: welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." we are live from our european headquarters in london. i am at matt miller alongside anna edwards in westminster. anna: good morning to you. futures in the u.k. point to a positive open as parliament prepares to vote on theresa may's exit deal. -- brexit deal. european cash trading starts in less than 30 minutes.
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matt: staring down the barrel. parliament has its say on theresa may's brexit deal as the pm face of the worst government -- governmentrs defeat in 95 years. we are live in westminster. futures point higher in europe and the u.s. as well following a positive section in asia. can earnings optimism win over concerns of a softening global economy? bnp paribas is said to shutter its u.s. commodities desk. a bad loan knocks down citigroup's revenue, but shares rise of the bank says the trading environment is actually improving. we are less than a half-hour from the start of european trading. take a look first off at futures here. we have euro stoxx 50 futures up 0.9%.
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ftse futures gaining as well. we look set to have this equity rally role from asia to europe and then to the u.s. as well. even amidst these fears of global growth and today's all-important brexit vote in parliament. take a look at the gmm screen. speaking of the brexit vote, we have something interesting going on here. ,s far as the equity indexes you can just see how strong the rally was in asia, south korea, mainland chinese index. this is yesterday's ftse. you can ignore that. you've got weakness in e.m., which is good for a. . the indian rupee as well. and the pound.
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the pound has shown real strength this morning. it is still among the biggest gainers. at a level we have not seen since november. anna, the pound sterling even though volatility is high right now, the strength is a level we have not seen since last year. anna: volatility very high. i saw one banker saying, just don't trade it over these next 24 hours. let's talk about what we are seeing in the markets. classic risk on from stocks and fx. as marketss climbing recover from weak economic data in europe and china. the pound is rising slightly ahead of those key parliament votes later on. it comes in the evening time london time. let's get to the broader market story with mark cudmore, our bloomberg markets. life strategist in singapore a lot going on in these markets.
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because it relates to brexit, i'm here tracking the politics. you are keeping a close eye on the markets and the pound. what a brexit delay be good or bad for u.k. assets? that is the question we are asking. in some cases it might depend why the delay occurs. >> definitely. a little bit of nuance around this question. the initial intuition is that a delay is a good thing. the thing people fear the most, or investors certainly, is exit. would beit with a deal more negative than britain staying in the eu. nevermind political views. delay is a good thing. overall, that is a positive. timeer, as investors get to process a delay, they will realize this means a prolonging of uncertainty. hedges will have to be role again. they will have to be rolled when volatility is expensive which means options are expensive.
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it creates more economic headwind for the u.k. and europe. it is not clear whether delay will see the sterling sustainably rise. what do you think the rest of the world is going to do in reaction? is this vote going to affect other markets or is this only important in london? >> the rest of the world is having to come out of their concrete bunker when it comes to brexit. most people outside the u.k. have really preferred to not talk about this, have got bored of this topic and not really want to trade u.k. assets. we are suddenly coming to a crunch period. i think that means the rest of the world is paying attention. this is one day when brexit is at the center of the conversation. people are asking what this means. many of the answers to those questions were, we are not going to know anymore in 24 hours than
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right now. for 24 hours, people need to focus on brexit, so it does matter for everyone. our -- all our talk of crunch days and decisive votes, we might not know the answers this evening. more broadly, the risk on story seems to have been german by the promise of tax cuts out of china. how significant is this? >> in isolation is a small move by china, but it is part of a october'stheme since and the government came out with unwavering support for private companies and the economy. china has continued to release small measured stimulus. this is another step and that's why chinese equities have outperformed. that is why the shanghai
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composite did not revisit the low it made before the president made those promises. this was expected. without there would be more tax cuts. when we were talking about what china might connect to next, one of my colleagues was saying they will probably give more details on tax cuts. sure enough, the announcement came 10 minutes later. it is confirmation china is following through and that is good news. matt: thanks very much for joining us this morning. mark cudmore is a bloomberg mliv strategist. you can join the debate, reach out to us and the mliv team. just type ib+tv on your terminal. let's get your bloomberg first word news now. >> u.k. lawmakers vote today on theresa may's eu withdrawal deal. 70 of the prime minister's colleagues are publicly pledged to join opposition members in
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voting against the agreement. with may set for what could be the biggest parliamentary defeat for a british government in 95 years, both sides are working under the assumption brexit will be delayed. astin trudeau has denounced arbitrary a chinese death sentence on one of his citizens. he was convicted and given a death sentence for drug trafficking after a one-day retrial. that is according to a statement from the people's court. it is reported his lawyer says he has decided to appeal the sentence. >> it is of extreme concern to us as a government, as it should be to all our international friends and allies, that china has chosen to begins arbitrarily apply the death penalty in cases -- as in this case facing the canadian. said to have asked
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state-run enterprises to avoid business trips to the u.s. and its allies. a regulatory body that oversees 100 government run companies has also told some firms to only take secure company issued laptops for overseas use. the warning also extends to the u.k., canada, and new zealand. become executives have more cautious after the arrest of the wally bp last year. huawei bp last year. year.last deal is not up a for negotiation. a delay in vote on the new prime minister will be held on friday. global news, 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. much.thanks very up next we are going to be talking exclusively to the ceo of euronext after the company launched a bid for norway's stock exchange. we will learn about volatility and how that has affected in trading. bloomberg radio is live on your mobile device or on dab digital radio if you are in the london area. tune in. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." and thisve from london is an incredibly important day for market in terms of what goes on for the u.k. we have futures pointing up across the board. 16 minutes until we start trading. today is the day of that all-important vote. will theresa may lose by a little is the question being asked. let's talk to someone who has a great seat looking at all these markets. euronext has launched a formal bid of 625 million euros for norway's stock exchange.
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the board has been given four weeks to consider the offer. . norway would be euronext's third biggest revenue generator after france and the netherlands. from the euronext annual conference in paris. thank you for joining us. you. a very busy day for it is a busy day for us as well. let me ask you the first question on brexit. it has caused a lot of volatility. i wonder if that affects -- does that affect your business in a positive way in terms of volumes. ? >> yes it does. all the players in the market for the past six or 12 months hoping for the best. everyone on this side of the water has taken the appropriate steps. we are expecting volumes.
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we are expecting volatility. almost otheris from the operational side on the side of the water. it is up to the british democratic institutions to decide which direction the end of the game is going to go. matt: you say hoping for the best, planning for the worst. what would be in your opinion the best case scenario? is thebest case scenario most balanced solution, which is the one that has been negotiated for the past 18 months by hard-working people on both sides of the water. that is the deal that has been negotiated. this part of the discussion is over. it is now upto -- to the british parliament to decide whether the deal negotiated by the government of the united kingdom is the one they want or not.
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that is what is the best case scenario. transition offers a that seems to be ok for the european union and the current u.k. governments. you. good morning to i want to ask you about your deal with the oslo board. how confident are you you will get the necessary acceptances from shareholders to trigger a delisting? not facilitated by the deal, but it was solicited by a significant group of shareholders who launched an auction to select an acquirer of their stakes. we won that option. we have gathered today more than 50% of the shares in the company should we hold directly and the inres that are represented
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on retract double undertakings. undertakings.le we are engaged with the board of directors. and we have tod all the stakeholders to analyze carefully the offer, which is a friendly offer. to be eveno board stronger and more successful in the context of being acquired, which is a balance between continuing regulations and scale of technology, scale of liquidity. do you think the views of shareholdersr of
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were being nor by the board? discussionsn past been approached by shareholders. more than half of them have been permitted to give their shares to euronext. we are confident, but time is to give time to the board to check whether they have abilities are not. we have to respect the time they need to perform their responsibilities just as we have --respect the time the local to determine euronext is a asper operator of oslo bors it is other platforms in other european countries. timing was surprising, for sure.
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it was initiated by shareholders. to the strategy of euronext buy a european platform to finance economies in europe and andd a backbone in europe was debate the had existed long within the oslo bors as we understand it to decide whether to remain independent in terms of technology and liquidity or to be part of a large group, and which one. it is a process for the time being. matt: i want to get back to the volatility we have seen. obviously it is not just brexit. brexit is a small part of what we have seen globally in terms of equity market volatility. has that volatility help your business? do you see more volume when you see this volatility?
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some volumes. i would argue probably the correction has already taken place. the underlying drivers of performance of european companies is very strong. we would see the earnings seasons of the coming weeks of months that the performance of european companies has been very good. unconfident things will stabilize going forward. interest rates are increasing. they can replace the profile of equity in europe. we do believe that europe is open for business and that -- on european
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opportunities. anna: thank you very much. you seem unfazed by sluggishness in the eurozone data. maybe we will get to talk about that. the ceo of euronext joining us from their annual conference. we are minutes away from the opening of european equity markets. we will look at stocks we are watching including the gaming sector of the u.s. this is bloomberg.
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matt: we are five minutes away from the start of trading. bloomberg's ross larson looking at bnp. covering the brexit sectors. and dani burger on william hill. let's start with the bank. >> they are closing their commodities desk in new york. it is about 16 people. i do not think it will be a stock -- a shock to the stocks. they signaled they want to get
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away from the oil and gas business. this is them executing their strategy. it should be seen as positive they are doing what they planned. it is part of a global warming effort at the company. matt: excellent. well, not excellent news, but a good story. what have we got on brexit stocks? >> a super volatile day ahead of us. all eyes are on the ftse 100 ahead of the big boat tonight. what we are -- the big vote tonight. we are watching consumer, retail, banks, also homebuilders. the battered real estate sector. anything can happen tonight. some are starting to upgrade u.k. stocks thinking they are undervalued. matt: take us out on william hill. >> the u.s. justice department has said all online gambling is illegal. look for this to hit bookmakers. not just william.
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they have really been expanding into the u.s.. that hurt their futures growth outlook. matt: the last session before the brexit vote in just four minutes time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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than a minuteess now from the start of cash trading in europe and the u.k. let's take a look at how the markets are shaking out. if you check out the euro strength, we saw its now coming back to unchanged. you still see some pretty decent pound strength, but you could see these two pairs traded wildly differently. oil had gains this morning. it's coming back down but brent .52 and chinese59 stocks up 2% on the mainland. take a look at the futures. we had great gains in asia
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overnight, we cds and gains on futures as well -- we see decent gains on futures as well. the mainland a little bit stronger than what we are seeing here in the u.k., maybe because of the pound strength. as these markets open up, let's take a look at how they are set coming out of the gate. to bounce upoing and down a little bit before it starts to take off. we are already seeing gains about debt of about a quarter of it -- gains of about a quarter of a percent. right out of the gate, we have gained in london and in madrid. it takes the dax a little bit longer to open up, but the cac will open up first, up 0.8%. and we can expect to see gains in these indexes when they open
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up as well. the sector picture is up across the board as well. you can see the markets divided ,y sectors, and we are all up from health care come to consumer discretionary, energy, materials, telecom services, materials, tech stocks, and financials. you have got gains in financials , and that's a good thing to see when you have a risk on rally, at least if you wanted to be sustainable -- want it to be sustainable. but go to the stoxx 600 and take a look at the bloomberg moves screen. first off, you can see the screen.from this we do have a lot more winners than losers. right now 482 stocks are up, 50 are down. of those that are gaining and really moving the market, you can see the big european tech firm sap and waldorf pushing us
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up -- in waldorf pushing is up in frankfurt. pharma stocks also helping to boost this market. you have big oil, like bp, and the tobacco, like british-american, helping to boost the stoxx 600 and euro stoxx 50. loses,re not that many but you do have astrazeneca as one of the losers. you see these u.k. pharmaceuticals actually weighing on the index, when this was pharmaceuticals -- the swiss pharmaceuticals are helping to push up the rest of the industry. notice that had power right now is down -- patty power is down right now to percent. %.lliam hill -- 2$ william hill also down. the pound is still holding
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on to some of the gains we see this morning i had of this key parliament vote on this key brexit deal. ,oining us now is james bartym head of global cross asset strategy at merrill lynch. aftero you make of this, disappointing economic news in china. we seem to be off to the races, no matter which region you watch. james: i think at the back end of last year we had a huge decline in -- alsod a risk love index, some technical, technical -- tactical models. they all went in to buy mode and a december -- and of december, beginning of january -- end of
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december, beginning of january. basically, the bad news is in the press, and any -- price, and anything which is not worse news is going to get markets to go up. anna: james comer a very good morning to you. how much -- james, a very good morning to you. i was talking to a guest yesterday who says he has not seen such a lack of conviction in a very long time in a whole host of positions. james: look, i think it's one of the reasons why markets are one up at the moment, because investors are badly challenge -- got badly challenged at the back end of last year. they said look, the equity is --ut as low as it ever been it's ever been. confidence is pretty low. that's why markets can kind of
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go up. we are in this kind of climbing the wall of worry. investor positioning is a lot more cautious. investors are about as bearish on global growth as they have been in the last decade, and that's when markets are actually going up. matt: at least in the u.s., we have seen a ton of profit warnings. basically companies across the board, not in any specific industry, although tech is obviously highlighted, pulling back their forecast for the previous quarter. do you see that happening in europe is well? as long as the key cutting their outlooks, they're going to be more and more expensive. james: this is a challenge. markets are oversold, but at the same time companies are downgrading. you see companies coming in light of estimates. , this is theia kind of market we are actually
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in. at the moment we are actually thinking this is a tactical rally in markets. to turn it into something more sustainable, and clearly we need to see signs that global growth is starting to bottom out, and we get to the end of these down provisions and warnings. can i ask you about reaction you expect to see in u.k. assets today to what's going on in westminster all around me? what a brexit a late be good or delay beuld a brexit good or bad? if we were to see a delay, how would that be played out for u.k. assets, do you think? james: i think it depends what the delay is for. at the moment, there is an element of no deal risk premium and all u.k. assets. the key is to really take. no deal off of the table. i think that is why you see
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sterling reacting positively in the last several sessions, because various mps have come up with various strategies to take no deal off of the table. theresa may is going to lose the vote tonight and lose it by some margin. the key is what comes after that. does she continue to push towards the no deal planning which the government has been doing, or do she face up to the reality that inside the house of commons there is no majority for a no deal brexit, and start to pursue an alternative course? matt: it's a great day to be talking to you. we're going to keep you with us. anna edwards is want to stay down there on the green ahead of this all-important vote. we will be watching every headline that comes out of westminster and every market move for you today. up next, we are going to talk more about theresa may's day of reckoning. the u.k. prime minister set to see her deal rejected and the biggest government defeat and 95 years. we are joined on the green bite
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shadow present secretary keir starmer next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ anna: welcome back to the european open. i am here live in westminster of course. european markets go higher as we anticipate this vote later on today here in parliament.
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theresa may is set to see her by the deal rejected today in what could be the worst government defeat and 95 years. jeremy corbyn -- in 95 years. jeremy corbyn has promised a no-confidence motion if theresa may loses the vote. secretaryrexit shadow joins me here. good morning. if we get this no-confidence vote voted by jeremy corbyn, if theresa may loses comment is the labour party -- loses, as the labour party likely to win -- is the labour party likely to win? keir: as far as the deal is concerned, it will most likely lose. i think the first thing is she about make a statement plan b. be reallyays will crucial.
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dishy say i am going to ram ideal one more time -- does she say i'm going to around my deal -- ram my deal one more time? as a very fast-moving situation at the moment. we have seen the government go down on key votes in the last few days and weeks, and that's involved conservative mps and others voting against their own government. there was a should be a general election. conventionally, the united kingdom for decades was that a government of any caliber, if they lost a massive vote, would go to the country. the parliament act was intended to bring some stability. that's what the prime minister is clinging to. she really ought to got to the country -- go to the country. anna: because she might lose drastically this evening, and n an very still happily wi
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no-confidence vote? keir: if she loses by a significant margin, it's a huge failure of government that calls into question the government. anna: if there is another general election, how will the labour party get behind another manifesto? keir: the good thing about the labour party, we have a democratic process, celeste september in our conference we anticipate positions -- -- celeste september in our conference we anticipated decisions we would have to make -- so last september in our conference we anticipated decisions we would have to make. we have done that in a democratic way. for the manifesto, it's a slightly different approach, it's where we put the proposition of the manifesto into a wider group before we come to a final decision.
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anna: but it would have to be a manifesto to be, wouldn't it? keir: it would have to build on the last manifesto, on the conference motion. we will have to go to this process, but i'm not going to -- on today which is a day all i'm not going to talk about the details of the manifesto. anna: it's a possibility of a second referendum, even if we end up in a situation where a no-confidence vote is called. does the labour party, if it loses that, and there is no general election, does the labour party automatically pivot to a second referendum call? keir: i think what has to happen is there needs to be a space in parliament for all mps to state what the now existing credible alternatives to theresa may steel actually are -- theresa may's deal actually are. that's why when we went through our conference motion, we said
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we would keep options on the table, including the option of a public vote. we have to look at what are the alternatives, particularly if you are as concerned as i am that we should not crash out without a deal. so what's credible? what can be done? how do we find a majority in parliament for what's going to happen? i don't know quite what the mechanism will be. what i do know is this, is that if the prime minister says i'm just going to plow off, then mp's from on parties -- all parties are going to say that simply not good enough, and we will find mechanisms to make sure the majority parliament can be heard. you you are seeing, what have seen in recent days and weeks is mps who are saying we are fed up with being shut out of the process.
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this nonsense that it's my deal or no deal is simply not good enough, and we will find a way to find a majority parliament. anna: what do you say to those who would suggest that that approach would risk not following through on the result of the referendum, and therefore could be damaging, even dangerous, for democracy? keir: well, the referendum was close, 52-48. the prime minister could have come up with a plan that generally brought the country together. instead, she came up with red light. she did not discuss it with her own cabinet. that is no way to act democratically. she should have brought parliament in months ago. she should have anticipated it. it was obvious to everybody that her own party would not be able to greet -- to agree on a due to leave -- deal to leave. the position we are in is completely foreseeable. anna: what is your assessment of
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what is a majority? for her? keir: if the deal goes down today, the options are a general election, which really ought to happen, some sort of deal that possibly people could coalesce around, and that the eu is prepared to negotiate, but that's quite a lot in that to sort out, or public vote, second referendum. realistically, i think the options are drawing in, and we're going to have to have that discussion. the first thing is, the question of whether there should be a general election. anna: ok, thank you very much for joining us on the green. keir starmer, u.k. shadow brexit secretary here with us in westminster. let's get our top stories with dani burger. >> good morning, anna. i have green across the board here. that bigomes to bnp, story that they are finally shutting the u.s. commodities desks, only 60 people, but perhaps the biggest move for them is that u.s. bank rally we
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saw yesterday's session. citigroup reporting earnings, that's on optimistic picture. we see barclays and deutsche bank also running today. partners group -- rallying today. two pointroup also up -- 2.2%. their biggest chunk of assets is in there private equity sector, so perhaps more isolated from the market volatility we have seen. finally, pew zhou reporting's -- ugot reporting car sales today. the one weak spot in that report was china. they are seeing some softening sales, but really what that does is feed into this china economic where theresing is some cooling data coming in. ,att: i just want to point out
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after the interview that anna did with keir starmer, we are getting some headlines out of the german chancellor. he pointed out that after a new election he would like to negotiate some kind of new deal with the eu. angela merkel, the chancellor of germany, says there will be no further concessions on brexit. so the question of course, what would another deal look like? when the eu even accept anyway -- would the eu even accept anyway? maybe you could have the best of five? let's take a look at the sectors on the move right now. we have the grr, group ranked returns on the stoxx 600 up on her wall here. you can see that for the day, the biggest winners are auto-parts. , thatggest losers of 2018 has to be the definition of a dead cat bounce, but we are in the midst of the detroit auto show. we are seeing more positive signs of consumer purchases for
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2019. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ welcome back to the european open. we are just about 22 minutes into the session with the green arrows across the board. indeed, the stoxx 600, the
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broader european index has broken through its 50 day moving average to the upside, so at least that's good news. is due to speak to the european parliament today about the ecb's annual report. that follows final december inflation figures due from spain and france, which were in line with estimates, though the ecp governors report is at a step by a full year -- with estimates. he will likely face questions about times of such economic uncertainty had growth slowdowns for the continent. james barty, head of global cross as a strategy at bank of america, merrill lynch is still with us. how desperate is draghi's situation? he desperately wants to raise rates by the end of his term. james: it's a difficult scenario for the ecb. they thought it was all going
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swimmingly well last year, and then they ended up sort of ending qe just as growth rollover -- rolled over. i think for the ecb right now, it's we would like to raise interest rates, but we have to have much better data to do so. hike, we have got penciled in for the end of this year, how confident we feel about that? not very. anna: james a, and this is sort of a linked question. how sluggish do you think germany has been at the end of last year? i was looking at some analysis yesterday that took of the chinese import data and try to work out what that means for the german growth story. how close to recession do you think germany could be? actually think germany could be in a technical recession right now. it's not a particularly big recession, but it's not looking
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good, and the fact is that germany is very sensitive to the chinese economy. china was the biggest surprise of 2018. we were expecting it to slow. it's load much more sharply. it was all -- it slowed much more sharply. we had the u.s.-china trade war, the tariffs that the americans imposed. the best correlation between german exports and anything else is with chinese imports. the weakness in chinese imports is going to hurt the german economy. matt: viewers of the show well-recognized this chart, and my producers are even sick of pulling it up. the white is the s&p 500, the blue, the stoxx 600, and the red the topix. do you expect this to change at all in terms of the order ever? do you expect us to see higher
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valuations by the end of 2019? james: there's good reasons why the u.s. is more expensive than the other markets. compared the u.s. to europe -- compare the u.s. to europe. ,urope has a tiny tech sector so that valuations are always going to be higher in the u.s.. the key point is that all markets got cheaper last year. the msci market ended last year's up 13 times earnings. sub 13 times year earnings. we are right at the bottom for valuation levels, which are model says right now that it's time to go along risk. are we going to get valuations higher by the end of the year? if we get that growth still booze asian i was talking about -- growth stabilization i was talking about earlier, yes. matt: we are going to get more with james barty, our guest house for the hour. theresa may's day of reckoning.
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the u.k. prime minister is set to see her brexit the rejected in the biggest government defeat in 95 years. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ we are 20 minutes into your trading day. good morning, everybody. staring down the barrel. parliament finally has it say on theresa ms. brexit deal. the pound gives up gains as merkel says no more concessions from europe. just how badly with the prime minister lose today's vote? risk resurgence. aropean equities rise after positive session in asia, but can earnings optimism when out over concerns -- win out over concerns of it softening global economy? bnp paribas is said to shutter its u.s. commodities debt. meanwhile, the bank says -- shares rise as the bank says the
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trading environment is improving. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am live in westminster tracking the u.k. politics. we expect that both at 7:00 this evening. for the moment, let's get to matt miller in our bloomberg european headquarters. he has the latest on the markets are minutes into the day. matt: we're looking at strong gains in these markets. you can see here the moves screen. we have almost 500 stocks gaining, less than 100 losers today. first of all, in terms of the oche at, novartis and r the top. you have airbus and daimler holding up the stoxx 600 index, as well as hsbc here. deutsche post helping to power the index. the biggest winners in terms of groups where the auto stocks -- were the auto stocks.
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volkswagen when the biggest point addition to the -- one of the biggest point addition to the stoxx 600 index. it's interesting that you do see some of the pharma stocks in this side of losers. hotel -- total taking the most points off, but since it's such a big company you don't see much of a move. then you have it had a power -- got paddy power down and william hill's down as well, so some of the biggest gambling stocks falling today. let's get the bloomberg first word news. for that we go to does the humphrey. desley: thanks. the justice department now says that all online gambling is illegal and united states. the ruling reverses its decision from 2011 that only sports
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betting is prohibited under the law passed 50 years earlier. a coalition backed by billionaire casino executive sheldon adelson lobbied the justice department to reconsider the earlier decision that cleared the way for states to about online gambling. china is said to have asked some state-run enterprises to avoid business trips to the u.s. and its allies. body that oversees about 100 government run companies has told some firms to only take secure company issued laptops meant for overseas use if traveling is necessary. the warning also extends to the u.k., canada, australia, and new zealand. chinese executives have become more cautious traveling after the arrest of the huawei executive. saudi arabia's sovereign wealth fund it will -- the bulk of the region's power project. the saudi energy ministers as the public investment fund will
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be responsible for developing 70% of the kingdom's renewable power capacity, that says the country moves away from oil generating power. renewablenoble -- will come in at a large scale, which will not happen overnight. that will not at all conflict with the role of oil in the energy mix. we are still primarily into transport and chemicals, and that will continue to grow. desley: global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am does we humphrey. this is -- i am does we humphrey -- desley humphrey. this is bloomberg. matt: theresa may is set to see
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her brexit deal rejected today in what would be the worst government defeat in 95 years. government sources say the u.k. and government officials are working on the assumption that burton's departure will be delayed if the prime minister loses the boat. joining us now on the phone is peter hargreaves, chairman of blue a copy -- blue whale capital. what do you expect from today's vote? peter: i expect that they would decline, they will reject it. rejected, toshould beat -- project it -- reject it to be honest. the british electorate voted to leave the eu. this is not leading. it's sort -- leaving. it's sort of a midweight thing where you are kind of in, kind of out. i don't see the anybody would want such a deal. matt: would you suggest a better alternative right now? keir: peter: --
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peter: well, the whole thing has gone wrong. the people who negotiated the deal, we don't even know if they want to leave the eu. we feel a lot of people negotiating in europe actually want to remain. you never get a good deal when the one you are negotiating is when you don't want. it would be like asking the people who wanted to remain to negotiate the deal -- the terms of leaving. it's ludicrous. it's nonsense. matt: if we do get a big loss today, we heard keir starmer earlier say that he thinks that has to be new elections. jeremy corbyn has set as well he is likely to call them. what do you think the results would be of that? peter: any new election would have no credence. if we can't agree to a huge proportion of the british public wanting to leave the eu and not delivering it, how can we have any confidence in an election in
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the future -- any election in the future? in any election, two thirds of the electorate don't vote for ,he party that gets in power but in this case we have the biggest majority of people wanting to leave of any vote the u.k. has ever had, and yet, they won't deliver it for us. i think the thing that has been wrong is that nobody has asked the people that want to leave, what should we do, how should we go about it? the last thing we should have done is talk to the eu. the eu are fighting for their existence. none of the countries in europe like the eu. it's bureaucratic, passes laws that nobody wants, and everybody hates the eu. all the countries do, all toy 78 it.- all 27 hate matt: you have got right now theresa may, who was for remain to begin with, and the
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conservative party have had two years to sort this out. you don't seem very happy with the result they delivered. what if you take somebody like jeremy corbyn and the labour party and give them a shot? peter: is that the case? has a labour party got more brexiteers than the conservative party? i think the labour party will purely vote against the government, not necessarily if they believe what they're voting for. we don't know the labour party. tony blair is a massive remain er. matt: thanks for your time. ofer hargraves, chairman blue will capital, and also the founder of hargreaves lansdowne. joining us now is dominic rob, former brexit secretary with anna edwards down on the green. anna? anna: thanks very much, matt.
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let's get to dominic rob, as you say former u.k. brexit secretary or his thoughts on the vote comes after 7:00 this evening. well, your assessment of most commentators suggest she will lose, but by how much? it's quite difficult to gauge. i think it's reasonably likely it's going to be roundly defeated, which to my mind means north of 50, but it could be more, but you never quite know. will do you think she still be able to go back to brussels and bring this back for another vote? >> we should always continue to negotiate and keep talking, but now and after we leave the eu, whether it's on wto terms or with a deal, but ultimately we
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cannot allow the eu to have a veto or delay brexit. we need to be ready with ramped up preparations to leave on wto terms to mature we can actually have some finale to this torture , and give the public a sense of we have delivered and referendum. -- delivered a referendum. anna: can you let a note of brexit -- can you rule out a note of brexit -- no deal brexit? >> i think the likelihood is we will leave on the 29th, with or without a deal, and on wto terms, if necessary. -- youime -- primary need primary legislation for that to happen. anna: so something like nick boles plan where he wants senior mps from different groups from around parliament to come together to try and work out
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what the will of the house is, and forge some kind of plan, you think it would not be possible because you can't change the date? >> you can't change the legislation. i think a lot of people would view that as kicking the can down the road, if not an opportunity to frustrate brexit. anna: do you think there is going to be a general election? you think the labour party has any chance of success in a no-confidence motion against the government? , the countryy would like to see its focus on getting brexit delivered. it's not the time to go for a general election. i think we better get on and deliver this. it's the biggest democratic mandate, in our lifetimes, i think. we were told to arrange to leave the eu, certainly if we could with a deal, but if not on wto
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terms. wouldn't an election -- you quite like an election? focused and i think your viewers would expect us to be focused on the massive decision we have got to date. i have scoured the deal. i have had a hand in negotiations in brussels. i have argued in counsel against the terms of the deal, i think -- and i think we should focus on what matters. if we get this wrong, we sign off on this bad deal that will haunt us for the foreseeable future. anna: you are somebody who has been close to the details of this particular deal. do, it is as you impossible it still could be -- is it possible that it still could be salvaged? that it could still be worth one
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back again after this if it fails today? >> i think so. i don't throw my hands in despair at this negotiation. we should keep the arm of friendship and in negotiations open. i would like to see us get a deal with the eu. i think it could happen before we leave the 29 to march, if not with yvonne wt -- 29th of march, and if not will leave on wto terms, and can talking. we should hold on, but keep talking. eu partners and neighbors are going to continue to be with us. i think we should put this in perspective. anna: thank you very much for joining us, dominic rob. stay with bloomberg. plenty more to come, as theresa may faces this day of reckoning for her reckoning plan. we will be speaking to the dup mp, gregory campbell. we will get the view from the
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dup of northern ireland. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." european equity markets trading higher this morning. here in messman start we waiting for -- here in westminster where waiting for theresa may to see if she can deal -- can get hurt
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deal to parliament. how much will she lose by, essentially. that's talk to gregory campbell, who is an mp for the dup. he joins us now on the green. gregory, very good to have you with us. so that the u has said they will not support the deal today. i am guessing -- the dup has said they were not support the deal today. i am guessing you will not support. -- badly could choose today could she lose today? votes,: it could be 70 or closer to 200. i think she can only really count on probably 170 votes guaranteed, but she may go as high as 250. it looks as if she is heading for to the -- heading for defeat, the only question is the scale of defeat. anna: if she goes back to
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brussels and tries again on more concessions on something that looks like her plan, but with changes, would that be something you could try and work with her on? gregory: the key is this backstop, which has been the key for near 19 months now. the fundamental premise that -- rpins the backstop is the backstop is supposed to be there to prevent a hardboard emerging. i am the mp that lives closest to the border and i know, and i have said to the government repeatedly, there are 300 crossings -- on the border. we are safeguarding against something that won't happen. anna: they are safeguarding against all kinds of unforeseeable circumstances in the future. the need to safeguard against things, even as unlikely as they look right now. gregory: the hardware is
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something that cannot and won't happen. everybody has agreed that a hard -- the hard border is something that cannot and will not happen. people will be able to go north and south across ireland freely as before. you don't need to safeguard against something that you are providing all the reassurances that whenever come to pass. that we -- that will now come to pass. when he theresa may to go back to brussels. the first thing she needs to say is it can't work, and it won't work, now let's revise it. that's look at a termination deal. let's look at something which will change dramatically, which prevents me getting this through the comments. ons.omm anna: the labour party has said they look to launch a no-confidence vote.
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you told me the last time we spoke on the phone that you would not vote against the government in a no-confidence vote, that the dup what about the government. is that -- would back the government. is that true of all members of the dup? gregory: as the moat -- at the moment, we think as it was. hands't be putting our in the teller. anna: can you see any way that corbyn gets a general election? gregory: i cannot, not numerically, unless something drastically changes from where it has been in the last 15, 19 months. it seems less likely that there will be a geordie -- a majority to have a general election. anna: thank you very much for your time, gregory campbell, dup mp joining us outside the house of commons. would look for the votes on amendments, then the main motion from the government. matt: absolutely.
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we look forward to continued coverage from the green. let's take a look at how european aquifers -- equities are checking out just 15 minutes into the session -- 50 minutes into the session. it looks like this global equity rally has ruled iran from asia to europe. we are still looking at positive futures in the u.s. as well. when we come back we will get more from james barty, head of global equity and global cross asset solutions from bank of america-merrill lynch. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ welcome back to the european open. we are just about 54 minutes into the trading day right now. we are looking at gains across europe. let's get back to james barty. when you look at all of the regions around the world, where do you see the best opportunity? james: for us as far as equity markets are concerned, we are long the s&p. with think that's the best earning growth of this year and we are also long em asia. em asia valuations have only ever been lower in full-blown the markets -- bear markets. that's where we are from an equity market perspective. we are long brazilian, african, russian government bonds.
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what we did last week is took a few profits on our risk off trade. we have tilted our portfolio a little bit progress can out. matt: i am curious what you think about gold, because it seems it's come back into fashion, in terms of a hedge come in terms of. protection. . gold -- what do you see happening to gold? james: what gold gives you an environment where we are starting to price out that it rate hiking -- fed rate hiking oil asion -- matt: is important? people don't seem as bothered by it. e key thing for oil is just for it to be stable. it's not so low that it causes problems for the u.s. oil
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sector, it's not so high that it causes problems for the. consumer. as far as helping the global economy, it's a positive. matt: it has to be good for em as well. if they can get it cheaper, helps build the economy. thanks very much for joining us. appreciate your time today, james barty, head of european equity and global cross asset strategy at bank of america-merrill lynch. he has been our guest this hour for this incredibly important day for the markets, for the u.k., and european union. stay with bloomberg television throughout the day. we are going to be having more big interviews from the green, and up next its bloomberg surveillance with tom keene and francis pacquiao. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ francine: judgment day for may. volatility spikes as the prime minister faces the against decision in years. stocks climb as chinese authorities say they will continue slashing taxes to support growth. in jpmorgan and wells fargo are up today after seeing an encouraging outlook yesterday. good morning, everyone. good afternoon, if you are in asia. this is "surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, live at westminster. later today, parliament will vote on thera


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