tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 1, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EST
>> let's talk about the markets and where we are. european equities are going nowhere in a hurry. below the surface, some really big movement. the stoxx 600 taking up a little bit over the last hour. when we last checked, we were up 0.2%. again undere pressure in germany. reportingncial times financial irregularity. pushing backlowly against that reporting. the stock still down heavily. i think we are trading below where we were earlier on in the week. moneyfund making decent on this. this is his most well-documented recent short. deutsche bank is the other one.
we will talk about this later on in the program. deutsche bank, the numbers continue to be difficult. does today's set of figures shortened the odds for a merger with commerzbank later on this year? all that is happening with this company is out of control of management. we talked to the cfo earlier on. we will hear more from that coming up. vonnie: the jobs report this morning. you might have expected the s&p would be higher than this. it has been. it is flat on the session. one of those better earnings stories. for cancer treatment having a blockbuster quarter, and that is sending the stock up. oil companies having good earnings, up 4% for exxon. not so much for amazon. some pause with
amazon. it is down 4.5%. guy: january incredibly strong. we had a strong emi read out of the u.s. -- pmi read out of the u.s. joining us from vanguard, from pennsylvania. nice to see you. thank you for taking time to join us today. we find ourselves in a situation where we continue to get decent data out of the u.s. today's ism number on the manufacturing side really strong. are we underpricing the fed? is the fed underpricing the fed? >> it is so interesting. not 48 hours ago, we had the chairman of the fed telling us that he is basically as dovish as they come. if you were to assign odds to him, you would give him five
doves for his performance in the statement. the market took off on it. rates rallied on the idea that the fed was pretty much done. today, we had this huge jobs number. way above estimates even though the prior month's jobs number had been written down somewhat. everyone is rethinking their future path. that is the market where in. away as tonot so far be completely invisible. everyone is repricing their path. sometimes the equity market is ahead of the bond market, like it was the last couple days. sometimes the bond market will get ahead of the equity market in terms of this race to the finish. guy: do you understand the fed? do you understand the reaction function in which pieces of data the fed are looking at right now. you look at headline
inflation, headline inflation is incredibly stable. there is no need to do too much right now. is that the primary driver? have we moved away from what is happening in wages? the yellen era focus? what do you see in terms of understanding what is happening? >> that is the question, to put it in econo speak, is the phillips curve dead? is the relationship between more people being employed and unemployment falling lower, has that relationship with inflation rising been broken? it has been slow to react. do i understand the fed? i tried to understand the fed. that is a big part of my job at vanguard. trying to figure out which direction the fed is going because it is a huge influence over the markets. i don't think the fed knows exactly where it is going. when you look at the distribution of projections in the messaging over the last three to four months, the best
thing you can say is to repeat what chairman powell said, which is we will be data dependent. from our perspective, the u.s. economy still has a fair amount of momentum. you can see in today's jobs number. our team of economists still sees strong gdp growth over the coming quarters. the likelihood of at least one more fed rate hike. after the jobs number today, we can be confident in that forecast. vonnie: where do yields go? we have the two-year yield, let's say that 10-year yield back at 2.6%. it has recuperated a couple of basis points again. know, what will impact
the balance sheet runoff affect doesn't seem like it will impact that. we may not know exactly where the balance sheet will end up. we have a pretty good idea, right? >> pretty much. the fed has told us clearly that they will be very flexible with the balance sheet. they probably will not run it down as far as their prior estimates anticipated. what do we think about the rates markets? we have to think globally, europe and asia as well. activeu.s., as an investor, you have two roles. you are trying to generate alpha with investments in government securities, but you are trying to also offset risk. at this point in the cycle, we have been increasing overall our exposure to the u.s. government market as an offset to credit. within the rates market, within the u.s. treasury securities investing world, we have been more interested in curb trades, where we have been entering steepening traits with a strategy to take advantage of the fact that we think we are near the end of the cycle. no one knows where the end comes.
what tends to happen is the difference between shorter-term yields and longer-term yields, whether it is two-year and 10-year, 10-year and 30-year, those tend to shrink. with the strategy, we are thinking about investing in a way to profit when that yield curve steepen's again. happen towards the end of the cycle when the economy starts to slow down, and we see more clearly the fed has to do something. that is usually to start reducing rates. that is where we are now. later, we might go into a much more directed longer duration strategy. right now with our active bonds, we are focused on our curb strategy. vonnie: what is your feeling on corporates? >> we like the orbit bond market -- corporate bond
market. we feel there is still a fair amount of momentum in the u.s. the situation in europe is not as dire as it may have seen in the last few weeks. we think the brexit trauma will work its way out in a better way. we don't see a chaotic exit for the u.k. the environment for credit is still pretty positive. investing is not without risk. as we are getting closer to the end of the cycle and things are more uncertain, we found it is prudent to increase our treasury holdings because treasuries and corporate bonds tend to become negatively correlated. guy: you bring up europe. is the german 10-year going to zero? it is trading at 16 basis is now.
are you surprised by the strong demand for peripheral debt? >> yes and no. activedefinitely in our funds instructive on german bunds. we think yields could fall further. we are overweight bunds versus u.k. gilt. we do like some of the peripheral debt. we particularly like portugal. portugal is an area where they have had recent upgrade in their ratings. we have very little political risk. we are kind of our billing -- barbelling our exposures in the eurozone by being long bunds and long portugal. italy is still a work in progress. in the sense that portugal and spain are more of our favorite peripheral countries. mathias, thank you.
let's check in on bloomberg first word news. courtney: president trump pulling out of a nuclear missile treaty with russia that has been a pillar of international arms control. the u.s. has accused russia of violating an intermediate range weapons for years. he says the u.s. will completely withdraw in six months unless russia complies with the deal by destroying missiles that are in violation. senator or a book or in new jersey is the latest democrat to throw his hat into the ring. he is running for president, saying the nation needs to see its leaders and feel pride, not chain. ofis one of the mysteries the political crisis in venezuela. while nicolas maduro and juan power, ackey for cargo plane has landed in caracas from dubai.
there is speculation the gold may be headed there. the trump administration has warned the investing immunity not to deal in gold, oil, or commodities that may be stolen by maduro. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: coming up, shares of deutsche bank fall after reporting its eighth straight order of revenue contraction. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
johnson. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. parse. economic data to abigail: net net, not a lot of action on that. take a look at the s&p 500, up 0.2%. despite that nonfarm payroll beat, investors not quite happy with wage growth. take a look at exxon mobil, very strong quarter. helped by the permian basin. their and cigna having worst days since last year. cigna is down 2%. president trump plans to curb drug rebates. investors not liking that. year.lastback about a
year we had all that volatility. the results to the upside with the bulls taking control. the bearish fourth quarter. on the and the nasdaq longest winning streak since november of 2017. big risk rally we are having now. some of the internet security names scoring in big ways on solid quarters. beat earnings by 47%. let's take a look at the five-day chart of the 10-year yield. this came after the fed's decision to become a bit more dovish. that is what many are saying is behind this rally. guy: fixed income is an interesting segue. deutsche bank has reported results today. germany's largest lender
shrinking for an eighth straight quarter. itsbank was able to report first profit on cost-cutting. cfo miller spoke to the earlier on. >> we don't see signs of a recession. we see signs of bottlenecks in certain instances in the ability to hire staff. we don't see a drop in the order books. the external stats in terms of business confidence and economic growth has slowed in the second half of the year. fundamental strength in the economy, admittedly at a lower level. matt: how much pressure do you feel from the german government to show them targets or go into merger talks? >> we feel we are in control of our destiny. we are executing our plans. we feel strong with the
milestone we set in 2018. frankly achieving financial milestones we promised the market. we intend to do the same in 2019, leverage all the work we have done with the businesses, stability in the platform, serving clients come executing on our strategy. i think all of our stakeholders around us should see us execute on that, and that puts us in control of our destiny. matt: is there some strategic help that you think merging with another bank would offer you in terms of raising revenue? >> i am not going to comment on specific items. we have talked, and there is talk in the sector overall that over time mergers, consolidation in the european banking sector would be sensible for a variety of reasons. we tended to agree with that. what form it takes, how long it takes to do is anybody's guess at this point. matt: previously deutsche bank
has said no merger talk until 2020. is that still the line? could you see a merger situation happening before that? >> we have homework. we think we have evidence of that. we want to deliver evidence of that in 2019. matt: could you rule out a merger this year? to comment oning specific mergers. i think i have answered the question on our general view of consolidation. we focused internally on executing our plans. we will demonstrate our progress over time. matt: what about the external issues? there are many, including trade, the european economy, and brexit. how much of a difficult variable are those offerings? >> as a financial institution, we operate in the environment, whether it is the financial market, or the underlying economy. the interest rate environment as
well. naturally, we swim in those ties. we need to adapt our strategy to reflect the environment, the opportunities as well as the challenges the environment serves up. we have been working through that. it has not been easy. i would cite the interest rate environment, on a relative basis when you are paying for cash that is deposited at your central bank versus earning on it, it is a huge competitive difference. as part of our environment, it is something we work through and will hopefully be able to overcome. guy: the cfo of deutsche bank speaking to matt miller earlier on in the morning. let's join our senior editor for finance, jim hertling. whether it is a good idea or bad idea, the merger with commerzbank is being talked about a lot. do today's numbers narrow the odds on that happening? jim: it is so in the air, it is
impossible to get around. in terms of whether it happens or not, what we reported, the numbers we got today pretty much were discounted. everybody was aware it was not going to be a great quarter. , what ourve reported sources tell us, it comes down to how well they execute in the first quarter. the timetable is really tight. for whatever reason, that has not been made plain to me, the authorities, the regulators in abouty are anxious settling this situation down. they don't want deutsche bank to be as unsettled as it has been. vonnie: our customers exiting -- can deutsche bank continue to do business with all of its customers with the amount of negative press that is coming out about it? jim: it is a big bank.
they have a lot of customers. they do a lot of business. they were straightforward in the fourth quarter that they did lose some business with the headlines. there was a rage, you will recall, over some money laundering issues. the raid, there were a lot of ugly television pictures. hey claim they lost some customer confidence and investor confidence. they are still doing a lot of business and were involved in some of the biggest bond deals of the year. they have 90,000 employees to get those paychecks out, they are doing a lot of business. bank.hey are a scaled you look at what they can do to deal with this situation, and in many ways they are doing it. they are cutting costs. they are trying to figure out a
way. most of what is happening is beyond the ability of the cfo or ceo to control, isn't it? said their future is in their own hands. guy: do you believe that? jim: he said it, and i have no reason to disbelieve him. problem is their cost base is too high for the revenue that they are generating. that is the heart of it. that is why they are so intent on cost-cutting. steadilycut costs as as they are, it is going to have an impact on their ability to generate revenue. what they have done, there has a train of rainmakers -- drain of rainmakers, people who bring in business. you cannot cut costs without
impacting revenue. guy: thank you, jim hertling. vonnie: some breaking news out of mexico. 6.4 magnitude earthquake on the mexico-guatemala border region has been shaking buildings. 6.4 magnitude earthquake on the mexico-guatemala border. the mexican peso is unchanged on the session. relativeding at 19.10 to the u.s. dollar. we will keep you posted. ♪
guy: we are counting you down to the european close. most of the european markets are high. wirecard is down hard on reporting regarding accounting irregularity. the company pushing strongly against that, saying it has done nothing wrong. deutsche bank is under a little pressure. that is kind of germany right now. ftse 100 is trading up. up around 0.5%. ismave a lift on the u.s. manufacturing number. this is bloomberg. ♪
day-to-day, banks trading lower. in italy, trading down really sharply. we will talk about football later in the program, the transfer window the main reason for that. the ftse 100 is up by 8/10 of 1%. dax flat. we have wirecard. sharp. up half oftrading 1%. is the rest of the year going to look like january? two were looked strong last year -- well, january look to strong last year. 27%, thisrading down --a massive sense at company authentec company. it is pushing back against that reporting. the company is saying it is doing nothing wrong. we talked about it the first
hour in the program, the stock of the hour trading up 10%. numbers looking good, but also the possibility of a spin out of the professional unit. this is a company that makes vacuum cleaners. deutsche bank trading down by 4/10 of 1% on the back of the numbers. in terms of volume, take a look at where we are. as you can see, the volume is looking ok today, as we come through the first trading day of february. pick up to the european markets. payroll number coming out of the u.s. decent pick up with a very strong number in european equities, up toward session highs, or at least the midway in terms of the charts we see. vonnie: the dollar selling following a very strong jobs report that was maybe not as full of the picture as we would've liked to have seen, but it does indicate good things,
apart from the employment wage gains. the dollar index at 95.44. the vix is calm, under 17. two year yields, actually the 10 year yields, 2.69%. crude oil making gains, just below $55 a barrel right now as the cuts come into effect more quickly than the market was anticipating. other asset classes, the commodities, you can see that steel is up 1%. trading well,cies the canadian dollar stronger by a quarter of a percent, or .25%. and i can tell you that the rmb is trading weaker by just a few ticks. guy? guy: let's take a look at what is happening today. christina is joining us, leading market live coverage in europe here. the u.s. data is
goldilocks-like. the fed is on hold. and then we have an ism number coming out, 56, really strong, and not much inflation. thestina: you know, we saw immediate market reaction in the stock market. we saw eme's hitting session highs. it took some time for the reaction to filter through, it was a little bit of a messy report with payrolls. the headline number was great, in theory, but all of the downriver visions put a little bit of a damper on the party. eventually, the dollar found its direction and as a result equities are slightly higher on the day. guy: in terms of what happens next, we had an incredible january. does the rest of the year
carry on like this? was year, january sensational and the rest of the year, not so much. >> if last year was any guide, this year investors should be wary going into february. we see some signs of that, the global stock rally slowing down, especially in europe. we have had indicators that perhaps it is time for a pullback. we have come up to some resistance levels that have not been spectacularly broken to the upside, so there is a little bit of limitation there. we see something similar in the u.s., the internals in the s&p 500, for instance, signaling a positive well. so it is sensible, i am sure that people are haunted by the story of last year when we had a spectacular january, only for that to be shattered by mid february. vonnie: the economic fundamentals are so different. i'm curious as to what
february typically brings and what investors are saying? >> we were debating this at live, what where the unknowns last year versus what we know this year. and the big driver of the pullback in january was that the 10 year yield was coming up to 3%, red about two -- fed about to embark on a tightening cycle. now we have the fed out on a devilish -- dovish message. providing a little bit of comfort. the 10 year yield is below 3% at the moment. and some of the indicators we have shown, in the job market particularly, that the u.s. economy is still doing ok. guy: we will leave it there. kristine, thank you. vonnie: another earnings news, single quarter profit -- the
health insurance forecast for the year has fallen short of estimates. we spoke with the ceo. >> we operate in an environment within cigna of transparency, for example 85% of all the commercial customers in the u.s. are covered under what is known as a self-funded relationship. that has transparency in full alignment with our clients. earlier today on the investor call, we articulated that 95% of all the discounts, rebates and reductions in pharmaceutical pricing are passed through within the express scripts model and many are opting for full transparency, but we offer choice. we are a broad portfolio of companies into effort choice and we will continue to do so going forward. while it is an interesting news cycle, it does not have an impact on our earnings for 2019 as we drive ford with growth and
further improvement of affordability for our customers. >> 95% was the sort of premerger, any ambition to change after the two companies came together? david: when we put the two companies together, we had several priorities. to further improve affordability, so when you take a broader narrative in the marketplace, whether you look at it through rebates or otherwise, the marketplace is clamoring for further improvements in affordability pretty we put the companies -- in affordability. we put the companies together, cigna has the slowest year of growth, and express scripts has delivered the slowest growth with .4% growth, so putting them together we want to drive further improvement of that for the benefit of customers. we want to deepen value-based relationships, so rewarding the pharmaceutical manufacturers, not just for consumption of a
drug, but for the clinical outcomes, and we want to deepen partnerships with physicians around the value of the care they provide for their patients, our customers. we will further that direction. and we do it off of position strength. >> talk about the political backdrop, it seems like every day there is a new democratic candidate and we have a lot of rhetoric around health care. some of them saying they want to medicare for all, getting rid of private insurance, so what does that mean for a company like cigna and what would the industry like to be hearing from them as a relates to health care policy? country has and will continue to have a dialogue around health care, because it is a personal need to set that evolves off of all of our lifestages. and as you indicated, while there has been progress, affordability continues to be a challenge. stepping back, we are global health company is we serve individuals across the globe.
in the markets of that have single-payer systems, in expatriates -- iwith expatriates around the globe, and our biggest market is in the united states. we will have capabilities that understand and engage individuals, support them relative to their health needs and clinical management needs. having certain care delivery capabilities, having certain financing capabilities that support whether it is an individual, governmental agency, employer, having those capabilities are important to give us the strategic flexibility as we go forward. environmented in an of regulatory change over the past decade, and we will continue to as we go in the next decade, because of our transparent funding mechanisms, the way we work with clients and physician partners, as well as our deep focus on improving health and quality of life for
individuals, has continued to be a growing corporation, both in terms of the numbers of customers we serve, the revenue we are able to generate, returnsand for our -- and returns for our shareholders. >> but it is always sort of hot potato, it is always sort of easy for them to be all over these companies, so what do you want to see the lawmakers do differently to fix what you referred to as an affordability crisis for u.s. health care? david: it is a long conversation, but let me identify some items. one, in the united states, if we are having a u.s. conversation, for the commercial population -- the individuals below the age of 65 -- it is commonly viewed that 80% of all medical costs tied to a lifestyle or behavior, like smoking, drinking, physical activity in food consumption. it is proven with the right engagement and support mechanisms, we can improve people's health, lower health risks, and improve the quality
of their life. so driving programs that enable us to do that where we improve health, as opposed to argue who finances sickness, is really important. youe are programs where support a medical professional with actual information and clinical resources, and financial incentives, to provide a more whole person health care. you deliver both -- you deliver better outcomes this way. have of all americans have one chronic disease. if you have a chronic disease, you are seven times more likely to have clinical depression. if that clinical depression goes untreated, it has additional ramifications on the individual, quality-of-life, in terms of additional medical conditions. supporting physicians with additional resources to be able to manage and help coordinate services around the whole person is important. there are some bright spots, hhs has produced a rules to do so, we just need to do so on a more accelerated basis.
lastly, choice, the country is founded on a framework of choice. millions of americans are diverse and affording them the choice whether they access services through an individual program or employer we think is important. so incentivizing, creating affordability, bringing physicians additional resources, including mind-body connection, and choice along the chassis, we think that is mission-critical. vonnie: the ceo of cigna speaking with us earlier. guy: european markets done for the week, we have worked our way through the auction process. a little bit of movement during the option, not much -- option, not much. ftse 100 doing welcome in numbers out from chevron today, shell yesterday, bp next week. dax trading flat. wirecard in massive drag on the market. cac 40 up by .5%.
even. well, we got that straight. michael, super bowl sunday is coming up, the rams versus the patriots, is it a foreign -- is it a foregone conclusion that the patriots take it? >> well, the rams have a very good defense and they could pull this off easy. but i have to give it up for tom brady. 41 years old, in the super bowl, my goodness. everybody is rooting for him, especially the people of boston. i think it will be 27-24 the patriots. vonnie: that is detailed. ok, we will go over to london to see what else we are looking at. >> we are looking at football, the game you play with your feet. guy: joe, the transfer window is now shut. you do not think that this is over, what has happened with the transfer window, when players can move clubs and massive
amounts of money move around? >> the publicly traded clubs have been really busy, about four of the clubs, including roma, they spend around 200 million euros and the market is reacting positively. so, with that shows is the market believes that these deals have been positive and of good value. guy: michael, let's go back to you. the big sporting event this weekend kicks off tonight between france and wales, we are talking about rugby. the equivalent of american football, i guess. in terms of winning the super bowl, what is the financial implication of that? michael: i will give you one example. the rams, when they made the super bowl, they made $3.5 million alone in online merchandise, just in that 10 day period. there is a lot of money involved. both teams, the patriots
obviously, they bring in a lot of money on this also. it is a cash cow. cbs, the broadcasters of super bowl 53, a 32nd spot is about $5.3 million -- 30 second spot is about $5.3 million. vonnie: the transfer window is something to keep us interested in the outlook for the premiership. so where should we be looking, who can afford to buy new players and maybe beef up their squads? joe: the big absentee was manchester united, the most valuable public company. they did not by anyone this year. that is why you see the decline on the screen. they are probably waiting until the summer, because at the moment they of interim manager, so most people expect them to come back when the season finishes. that is probably where some
money could be spent, in the summer. vonnie: michael, obviously it is too late for the rams or patriots to be spending money on players, but they do not need to, who should we be watching? michael: keep your eye on the defense for the rams. they are outstanding. of course, keep your eye on tom gurly. they said he was hurt, but if he has a big game, that could be your mvp for the rams. guy: i have to second the biggest sporting event, at least as far as this show is concerned, is england versus ireland in ireland. vonnie: it is a foregone conclusion, i do not know why we would be worried about getting up early in the morning for that one. guy: the world cup is coming. i like ireland for the world cup, but i think this weekend we have got it. vonnie: who are the holders? guy: we will not talk about
that. [laughter] vonnie: ok. [laughter] thanks to our panel, including guy johnson. we have michael barr, and in london, joe easton. lots of games for the weekend. our business of sports podcast is hosted by michael barr and will be on tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern. shares of papa john's going back down to their lowest since august. the company pursuing a sale of a stake in itself after and failureoffers, an, to meet expectations. we are in a pizza weekend, but what is this? >> more fundamental news that they are looking at maybe a private investment in a private equity, looking at a private equity firm that should've been interested but they did not like the, bids, so they are looking to put a portion of themselves up for sale. this after the resignation of
the former chairman in december of 2017. shares off about 35%. a report that he used a racial slur, and since then there has been drama with the board on a fundamental issue as well. and we know that sales are forecast to decline and profits are expected to be negative next year in 2018. so a lot of things hitting the any, andfor this -- compna we know that papa john's is not commenting on the acquisition or investment. guy: it is a big weekend to eat pizza. give us a sense of how much pizza will be consumed around the super bowl. >> it is disgusting, like 12 million pounds or something. oabout 50 million cases of beer. thousands of calories. you knowies and lies, if there is pizza in front of it. you will be eating
vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts. you can always see these on the bloomberg by running the function gtv . jessica summers is kicking things off. >> i want to talk about the energy space, especially wrapping of january. we are looking at the velocity shares, you can see we had about $141 million in outflow, the biggest monthly outflow in more than a year. it happened at the same time that wti actually posted its best january on record. so it is really interesting, this really uses a speculative trading told to play short-term moves on oil. investors love trading oil in this highly leveraged way. vonnie: that is fascinating,
particularly as we see the price of oil go higher. now across the pond to ask guy m what do you have? guy: credit quality, the long-term story around credit quality. the blue line is the best. this is the aaa stuff, the really good stuff. the most highly rated stuff. the bottom end is the bbb' s. look at those two lines. the amounts out there of the really good stuff versus the really low stuff have never crossed, we have only had more of the good stuff than the bad stuff. now, those lines have now crossed. this has never ever happened before. and i think it is a real indicator as to what is happening in the ig credit market, in the economy, a real
indicator of how much we have for the balance sheets, their quality, as they exist. investors need to pay attention to this, this has never happened before. vonnie: both fantastic, but in the spirit of gamesmanship that should characterize this weekend with all the games in progress, i think i should award a tie. i'm not in the business of being called a bad ref, i do not want to hear from anybody about the call, that is the way it is. i have decided it will be a friday tie. well done to both of you in our battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
where the world of politics meets the world of business. michaelrief today, mckee from washington on u.s. china trade negotiations and the second month in a row of strong jobs numbers. star what those, because they surprise to me after last month's numbers. the blowoutdid see december numbers revised the lower by 90,000, offset by another 20,000 added to november, but still, 70,000 jobs fewer than we thought going into january. then we had another 304,000, we will see if that is revised when we get to february numbers, but it still shows a lot of strength. a small uptick in unemployment, largely because of the government shutdown, so that should rivers. year-over-year -- should rivers. year -- reverse.