tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg February 17, 2019 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
stroud-wattsaidi in sydney. markets have opened for a trade. -- opened for trade. shery: i am shery ahn. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ haidi: these are our top stories. wall street stocks surged to a 10 week high. the yen is unchanged. the trade situation back to washington amid signs of progress. president trump is being briefed on the talks so far.
the latest victim of the trade war, growth slumping as exports stagnate. haidi: a quick -- shery: quick check of the market, we saw a broad rally with the s&p 500 finishing at session highs. every sector was in the green, financial and energy leading the gains. talks optimism over trade in beijing, more talks continuing in washington this week, not to mention u.s. consumer sentiment rebounding from a two-year low. there was a lot of optimism in the markets. futures gaining ground at the moment, up .1% as we head to the asian open. we could have low volumes given the u.s. is on holiday for president's day. haidi: we are seeing futures -- sophie: seeing futures higher. there we00 gaining .2%
have plenty of earnings to consider this morning. i want to highlight the amp, one of the movers as we are getting an update from the company this morning saying it sees an impact from the government's new super valuation bill which could see more australian dollars. that could go up to $30 million. the stock was at a record low friday ends -- and declines happened. we got a downgraded to neutral from j.p. morgan on amp stock. one stock moving very much to the downside, that is in go industries, sliding more than 47%, this after it downgraded its guidance. we have the company seeing it -- saying it has that from last year but numbers falling given the downtrend. that is bingo industries sliding 45.2% at the start of cash trade. get to first word
news now. ramy: the ecb admits a slowdown in the eurozone is picking and the bank could change its rates guidance if it becomes clear the situation is not temporary. they say the extent of last week took policy makers by surprise with italy is sliding into recession and germany only narrowly missing the same fate. -- globalertainty uncertainty is the main problem. theresa may is pleading with conservative party colleagues to unit -- unite behind her deal as she prepares to go to brussels for more talks. there are signs of stress triggered by the split from europe. bmis stopped flying and said brexit was to blame while airbus set a no deal would be catastrophic and lead to a rethink on u.s. -- u.k. investment. reports from tokyo say japan considered canceling trade talks
with the u.k. after receiving a letter from london deemed offensive. they say the foreign secretary jeremy hunt and the trade secretary said time is of the essence reaching a deal. the paper said japanese officials thought the letter reflected an increasingly high-handed approach i london. saudi arabia's crown prince said his country has signed memorandums of understanding in pakistan worth $20 billion. he was welcomed by the prime minister at the start of an asian tour that will take into india and china. the proper uses that promises include deals of agriculture and energy. among them, $10 billion oil refinery. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. inocencio. this is bloomberg. shery: president trump is being briefed on the trade talks that
wrapped in beijing last week and resume later in washington. d.c. asny joins us from beijing is claiming consensus in principle. what is trump saying? ros: you are right. -- president xi said they have progressed in talks last week. president trump over friday and saturday and today on twitter sounded optimistic about the talks. he said there had been progress and he is optimistic about making a deal. what thes to be seen u.s. trade hawks want to get out of china when they go down in these talks over the next few weeks. does seem like the threat the u.s. will ramp up tariffs on china in march may be off the table for now, so that could be a big plus that we saw in the market friday. president trump met with trade
aides, everyone from the hawks in his administration, peter navarro, and others, representative lighthizer and the very pro-trade captain as well. it is hard to know who is driving the bus in terms of his trade team but he would have heard from everybody and said something upbeat. in terms of the domestic situation, funding the border wall, it is playing out as we imagined. there are already legal challenges in the making. ros: we have been expecting those, and some have already come from various public interest groups. we expect california and a consortium of other states to follow suit monday even though it is a holiday. see you in court is kind of the bottom line here. for congress a lot of sort of challenges ahead, congress is
out in the coming weeks. when they come back we would expect a vote in the house and later in the senate, very likely a vote to overturn the emergency declaration which it is likely trump would veto and then it is likely there is not enough votes in the senate, at least in the senate and probably in the house to override that. it is an institutional -- constitutional crisis in a way. congress has the power of the purse in the united states. they are giving it up a bit to trump. there have been reports that rod rosenstein wants to consider taping the president. there might be back up to that coming from witnesses. tell us about this story. ros: very interesting story going back to the early days of the trump administration.
apparently the deputy attorney general was prepared to wear a wire. we have access to off the record testimony house panel that took place last year. if this were the case, it would create a lot of concern among lawmakers from both parties. today we had lindsey graham, south carolina republican on the judiciary committee saying he will hold hearings and bring in rosenstein and others to talk about this. it circles back to the robert mueller investigation, 2016 and possible russian interference in the u.s. election and that is just the gift that keeps on giving in the united states. haidi: ros krasny with the latest in washington. hong kong has fallen victim to the u.s.-china trade war with economic growth slumping at the end of last year and exports
stagnated. tom mackenzie is back with us. as we get signs of hope and light in these trade talks, damage is starting to be seen. even if they progress, it is another reminder trade tensions between -- and they are having a real world affect. it underlines and underscores the imperative of getting those resolved. so the finance secretary in hong kong writing a blog post saying gdp growth fell to 1.5%. that compares to 2.9% in the third quarter. he said export growth is almost 0%. he blamed most of it on the trade tensions saying it was having a significant impact. retail also slowed despite the mainland visitors to hong kong. the expectation for the full year, growth for 2018 was around 3% in hong kong. that was the low end of the
government forecast could are expecting the forecast for 2019 to come out soon but it is a reminder of the impact these trade tensions are having on jurisdictions like hong kong. shery: auto sales also a key factor determining consumer sentiment inside china and we are expecting sales numbers out. what are we expecting? really,itmus test particularly for big-ticket items. some of the sounds we have been hearing from the dealerships and big autos say it will be particularly soft. that follows what we saw 2018, auto sales in china down for the first time in three decades. the auto sales sector makes up accounts for 5% of china's gdp. it is the world's largest auto market. there is a big focus on what it means for gdp growth.
it is a litmus test for china's consumer appeared whether or not policymakers will stand up with additional measures to support growth as well. numbers,e money supply does that suggest easing measures are starting to trickle through? tom: there were seasonal effects, but it would be hard to argue from the data in terms of money supply those easing measures are now starting to have an impact. look at the terminal. january to january showing month by month the total social financing for look at the pickup in january 2019, 4.6 trillion yuan, additional liquidity into the banking system, well above expectations and three times more than the number of december. new yuan loans at the highest 1992. since december that is the first round of dates
we got on yuan loans. there are seasonal effects. the pboc saying the policy, monetary policy hasn't changed, but there could be relief in china that at some point this liquidity or at least now it is starting to filter through. much, tomnk you so mackenzie. investors seeing signals from the fed as economic data disappoints. we will look at why some say the hawkish contingent could be regrouping. haidi: find out why and to be partners say the market could be underestimating the slowdown in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
japanese yen hovering around the 110 level. we are getting japan december machine numbers in a few minutes. hang around for that. all of this at a time when wall street finished session highs friday. i am shery and in new york. -- shery ahn in new york. asia: asia and starts -- starting pretty positive. a straight week for the s&p was a up. on -- consensus on trade and consumer sentiment. let's bring in this deputy portfolio manager here in sydney. are you going to be the bearer of more less optimistic forecast? are we closer to a recession in the u.s. the markets are pricing for?
the discussion in the u.s. will be how week growth gets. could not be an actual recession from an economic forecasting point of view but he will feel flow. what is important is the fed reacting function. if it tries to look through it and continues i hiking path -- on a rate hiking path, there could be more trouble down the road. they have got to move carefully as data comes out. we know some of the data coming out is confidence related. then is whether how much this impacts the consumer we have and signs of retail sales consumer sentiment off the highs and weaker order -- auto sales grew watching that carefully. haidi: we ended the week on a high but let of convention with sentiment in the markets, i will show you a chart with asia. sherry will talk about the u.s. side of things. asia has already priced in some of the same woes u.s. stocks
started the year out with it is managing to stay above that moving average but it is interesting what that catalyst would be. would it be a resolution to push up for the next leg? resolution will be a big sentiment boost for chinese business confidence. from where we look on the ground we have seen strong lending data over the weekend, what the data is telling us there was a big surge in corporate loans, sme loans. those are the part of the economy that have had a big slowdown. we will see some facing but also the consumer has pulled back. a large part of this is confidence related. a trade resolution will help. we are not expecting big stimulus. we are just expecting around the margins. with the weakening u.s. economy, the motivation for both sides to get something agreed in the
short-term is high as they still debate the more structural issues that lurk in the background that are going to be there for the next 5, 10 years. you mentioned china's credit growth, but how much will help with the credit crunch seen in the chinese economy and how much was seasonal factors ahead of the lunar new year holidays? >> it is interesting. when we see china towards the end of 2018, saw a big slowdown smeorporate borrowing, the sector particularly the are they had a tough time getting access to funding, and they had a tough time getting their bills paid. there was a lot of big slowdown in the economy, big corporate saw slowdowns. sme was caught in the crossfire. a part of this big issue, particularly from the government bond side is to kind of
liquefied the sme sector, boost confidence. evidence of that happening in these numbers. you would argue that is one off for a short-term factor in what you want is the household sector, demand to continue to grow. you want corporate making the right business decisions, ethics decisions. that is the stuff we are looking for. we are looking for the chinese economy to sustain itself but we see trying to put a floor in economic activity. it comes to financial conditions and the u.s., they have strengthened quite a bit since the december meeting. at what point do financial conditions in jacked themselves back into the -- in jacked them set -- conditions injec themselves backt into the
easing? >> they are dependent on economic conditions. if economic activity continues to slow, that will put pressure on banks to be more cautious. it will put the credit markets more skeptical and want to price in higher risk premiums are we are not there yet. i think at the moment credit givens remain open again the bounce we have had in risk assets. if we continue to see weaker data out of the u.s., these will reverse. force the federal reserve to altogether.cy right now we are still seeing $50 billion a month of balance sheet unwind. we still have more potentially from the federal reserve point of view, more easing if activity did weaken further. haidi: what are your top picks by market and sector? >> there is a slowdown in the
u.s.. whether it is a sharp slowdown or soft patch, time will tell. we want to find the idiosyncratic opportunities in markets. we like chinese telecommunication stocks. they are out of favor, not something that comes up in discussion. what do we like about those --cks, particularly china public equity markets. what we like is it is an industry that is [indiscernible] that is important in terms of medications. china has a very advanced 4g network and the 5g rollout will be capital lights meeting china unicom and telecom will have more cash on their own balance sheet to pay out to shareholders could that is more positive and not priced into the conduct -- the current share price.
there is talk of privatization of these companies. we have seen a lot of private internet players that moved into that kind of and capital discipline, shareholder management, that nature with these businesses in an interesting point when they are amongst the cheapest telecommunication stocks in the world. is it time to look at them, or is there truth in the chinese consumer slowdown narrative? we think you have to be selective in terms of the names you pick. we prefer this one. moving into-market the upper market segment. it is professionally run. you can talk about the nuances of these, but there is a lot of growth left in these businesses. why we like this one, it is trading on 15 times earnings, giving us growth rates of 20%.
there is a lot of negativity in the price. we think some of these big champions have been kind of thrown out with the bathwater, and they are good names to revisit in 2019. as we get the income tax cuts flowing through to the consumers across china we think household balance sheets for the first half of the year will probably be in good shape for a rebound in consumption. haidi: nice to have you here. the portfolio manager at antipodes partners. terminal.ok at the go to dayb on your terminal. this is also available on the anywhere app. you can customize settings so you just get the news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪
asia. this is daybreak i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. deutsche bank's top investor continues to cut its stake. shares sold 27 million for $400 million as they prepared to abandon one of the most high-profile purchases. the shares were sold up to 16 euros apiece. investment ins the put option. the bank closed at 772. haidi: the bid to launch a wealth management unit has been approved by this bank. they got a thumbs up and received applications from other lenders. last year icbc was planning to million in an operation covering wealth management products. shery: yes bank has been
censured for revealing a confidential report that triggered a 30% surge in shares last week. identified several regulatory lapses where they were criticized for a deliberate attempt to mislead. they had said the r.b.i. audit found no divergences in bad loans in the front of year which caused shares to jump the most since 2005. haidi: positive start to the monday morning trading session starting with sydney stocks, the gaining higher, led by energy stocks and oil prices at the highest level this year. saudi arabia curtailing output as well as a positive development in the u.s.-china trade walks helping -- trade talks helping sentiment. from the trade war to the dam disaster, looking at the mining
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ramy: welcome back. i am ramy inocencio. president trump is being briefed on trade talks with china as the talks resume this week in washington. made, earliering indicating he might postpone new tariffs if a deal is close. he is meeting with steve mnuchin and robert lighthizer, who led talks in beijing. angela merkel has used the munich security conference to defend multilateral institutions, drawing a standing ovation from delegates. she took american protectionism to task, calling for cooperation
to continue. mike pence drew a sharp response from china as he touted american leadership and single that huawei. -- singled out huawei. >> the united states has always been clear. as chinese laws require them to provide the best security apparatus with any data that touches their network or equipment, we must protect our critical telecom infrastructure. >> people should not and cannot be misled. huawei as a company is cooperating very closely with european countries in the fourth industrial revolution. we should all work together, and chinese law doesn't require companies to install back doors or collect intelligence. ramy: the u.k. government concluded it can mitigate risks from using huawei network
equipment. that is according to the financial times. erickson has denied claims restrictions on huawei products to see europe fall behind in the communications race. they have been backed by nokia saying they are already building front running five g networks. hong kong's growth dragged down by the trade war with exports expansion.ost zero the finance secretary said fourth-quarter gdp growth was less than 1.5%, well below the 2.9% of september. hong kong has been hit hard by the trade war with retail sales missing estimates in december or that is despite a surge in traffic from china. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. how the markets in asia are shaping up with australia and new zealand with
treating underway. we are seeing stocks rising to an october 5 high, all sectors in the black except industrials. resource players leading the charge. the aussie dollar is little changed after a weekly advance and bonds are slipping, tracking moves from friday as optimism over u.s.-china trade talks reduced demand for havens. downside on the asx 200, bingo industries hauling the most -- falling the most after cutting its forecast on a faster than expected slowdown. of queenslandank seeking -- sinking of the most since november 2017 after the regional under flag is profit at less than expected. ramble under pressure after a operatingue to higher costs. the company confirming it expects to spin off its reusable plastic container business this
year. domain holdings is continuing to lose ground. they cut at morningstar. it is among the worst stocks on the asx 200. we saw a jump friday when it rose the most on record. first-half earnings were not worst than expected. extendedck on amp with losses as a fresh record low. the company acknowledging the impact of the government's superannuation bill and the stock downgraded to neutral. investors are waiting to see big earnings in the commodities sector. fortescue and santos releasing results wednesday and thursday. let's bring in the semi-near commodity reporter david stringer -- senior commodity reporter david stringer. what will people focus on? david: we will hear from the bhp, they arehts,
releasing data tuesday. in london we will hear from a real big industry player like .lencore and anglo-american it is pretty strong. his companies are making good margins, seeing robust demand, decent prices, generating a lot of cash. investors want to know where that cash will be deployed, to what extent are they going to continue to see investor returns and how much? how much cash will go into new bhp? ts in terms of they financed a half billion package of investor returns. there is return for more. it it is a question of when. will bhp announced additional returns to investors tomorrow or potentially will it wait until earnings in august? glencore will probably announce --ew bike rack -- by rack
buyback program. on project is spending, a rise we are seeing there, real focus on potential returns from those projects. what investors don't want to see is a return to the old days of spending on marginal projects. a real focus on what is going on there. there will be a lot of attention on bhp to see if they are closer to green light in the jensen project in canada. that is a real touchstone issue for investors. the broader outlook, the overarching important thing is the outlook on china. how concerned are the biggest miners and oil producers about a slowing chinese economy? shery: a lot of attention on valley given the mining disaster in brazil. are we going to hear more from the mining sector? i think absolutely people will look to see what response
there is. this is the top supplier of iron or. we will hear from its biggest competitors. people will be looking to see if there is any indication any of those companies plan to lift supply in response to the losses we are expecting from vale. there is still a lot of confusion in the market. people don't have a handle on how much output will be lost. potentially what we will see is ooe companies not move t aggressively, not jump ahead and announced big responses in terms of supply. expectation is pretty low we will see huge announcements. the other thing is what will these companies do in response. what action do they need to take to protect safety and how much more will that cost? shery: thank you so much for that. david slinger in melbourne.
woodside petroleum reported a 28% rise in profits after wrapping up lng production. australia's biggest listed producer took cash flow to boost its final dividend. speaking to bloomberg in his first interview since the results, peter coleman touted expansion plans and called 2019 the year of the deal. >> we have two big projects in china. one is the north of australia and then the scarborough project. around agreements pricing. on the equities side, the scarborough project, holding 75% in the offshore. we would like to come down a little bit and that great we have a lot of interest globally. coming into australia, it is a great project. it is the year of the deal for us. talking to sony aramco, are you looking at 2019 as also the year you bring in new
partners? >> it could be. saudi aramco like other countries in the least have stated objectives around what they want to do with gas. i would say at the moment we have people ranging from the middle east through to asia, our normal partners we would have that are looking at the assets. we have opened up a data room. we are showing people what the costs are going to look like, what the quality of the resource is going to look like. we expect at the end of this year we will start to close on those conversations. shery: you announced a bump in dividend they out. what maintain those levels in the future? -- will you maintain those levels in the future? >> our current payout ratio is 80% per we have learned over time in the resources business,
linking it to profit is the best way for shareholders to vote, share in the upside and ride the cycle with us. it in thetweaked second half of this year as we closed down at the end of the year. it was based on the strong cash flows we had, $71 brent during 2018, our budget was $65. we looked at our cash and said you need to get back to shareholders, and that is what we did. shery: there has been skepticism with the quality of your assets including scarborough and others. what would you say to your investors? say take heart. what we are demonstrating with the interests and from others is clearly they are world-class asset as we talked about. those commentaries was fairly based on old data.
we are receiving new data. that is around cost per we have been looking at costs on scarborough. the numbers we are seeing her within the control estimates we have shown shareholders can we give shareholders some estimates -- shown shareholders. by this time next year or by the end of 2019, of course we will have lump-sum contracts and able to walk those prices in. it was -- it is a good time from a cost point of view. we are pushing forward and take part in what we are seeing at the moment. we have got the right projects. haidi: that was the woodside petroleum ceo with his outlook for the company. investors looking for signals from the fed as economic data disappoints crude why some say the hawks could be regrouping. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
we are counting down to asia's first major market open this morning we have australia trading a little higher this morning. korean futures looking like this, up .6%. also really looking ahead to positivity in the asian session this monday after wall street where the s&p surged to a 10 month high. looking at the business flash headlines now. nikkei news said nissans special governance committee could require an independent director to oversee board meetings. that would reduce the influence of the next chairman. but the german would still be the key coordinator with partners renault and mitsubishi. it has been three months since the arrest of carlos ghosn. dbs reported fourth-quarter net income at 1.5% below the analyst
million u.s.73 with net interest income $1.7 billion u.s. the nonperforming look -- loans was slightly lower than the 1.7% from a year ago. and later on middle east, we are speaking with the dbs group ceo, that is at after 1:00 p.m. hong kong time. citigroup is in talks with a middle east backed group in the london canary wharf. the bank wants to buy 25 canada with afrom its owner price tag of $1.6 billion. they have remained point despite the economic slowdown ahead of brexit next month -- buoyant despite the economic slowdown ahead of brexit next month. key policymakers including the ecb's mario draghi and others
will give their view next week. columnisterg opinion joins us now. what are we going to learn from central banks that we didn't already know from the flurry of speeches and activity over the past two weeks? little more of the framework and a little more of the thinking beyond key paragraphs in speeches like the one by the rba governor low recently. what has happened to the view of their domestic economies and of the world in the past six weeks to bring about this very tilt toward easing. in some instances like india it has been an actual using. in other places like australia it is a dry bring -- dropping tightening. in new zealand there is still a
little bit of what did the governor actually say? he was dovish but perhaps insufficiently dovish for some market participants. the global tilt is unambiguous and running in one direction towards easing. shery: will we see confirmation of the u.s. tilt with the fomc minutes, not to mention nine fed speakers this week? >> we do. here is the risk with the minutes. the risk with the minutes is they are a summary of the discussions that took place. you will hear from some voices that perhaps were not as clearly dovish as the fomc statement and as chair powell was in his subsequent press conference. this is the trick with the fed. there are a lot of voices. not every voice matters at a particular juncture.
george orwell said all animals are not equal. i would really look towards rich clarida at the end of the week and then chair powell's testimony to the senate and house next week. is it possible the minutes are not the biggest thing in terms of what we are waiting to hear from all of these speakers? we are waiting to hear from mario draghi as well as the rba ministers as well to give us an idea whether we are seeing the synchronized turn to dovishness. minutes are the hefty us to material -- heftyist material. thrust, thecure the tilt that is initiated, stewart stewardedpherded --
and shepherded. there is a core group of three or four people that really steer the discussion. their influence goes beyond whether they are a near vote or non-vote at any type of the cycle. clarinet'-- vice chair clarida's comments, the whor, and chad coldwater runs the open market desk, a plumbing job but a vital job. there was some speculation we would continue to see a strengthening dollar just because the fed had turned dovish but at the same time all other central banks are turning dovish as well. expect otherly central banks to say [indiscernible] the fed? tough call. is a
it is a good question. the fed sets the tone in terms of monetary response to a slowing global economy grew whether that means they have to out fed the fed, you may say the reserve bank of india put a down payment on that. the fed has enabled many of the banks in this region to now focus on threats to their economy closer to home. if there is one thing ricocheting through the regional economy and then the global economy, it is the slowdown in china. the fed has cut them a break. let's see if they can run with that. if -- thank you so much. we have breaking news out of japan, getting the core machine orders month to month falling .1%. it is a smaller fall than expected for the month of december. theere expecting 1% after
numbers were flat in the previous month. december machine orders month on month falling 1%. year on year growing .9%. the estimate was for growth of 3.4%. it is a slight acceleration from the previous month of november where growth was .8%. there is a mixed picture with the month on month and year on year picture but we got positive signs out of the economy including capital goods rising, stronger auto sector than expected but at the same time keep an eye on the slowing growth in china and the u.s.-china trade talks. plenty or ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
alliances over trade, nuclear security proven to be essential. how to do it is the bigger question. jacob kierkegaard joins us on the line now from copenhagen. great to have you as always. let me start off with the munich security conference. we saw this rousing speech that the u.s. before and security policy. angela merkel got a standing ovation for it. does this show how much the u.s. has drifted from its allies in the last couple of years? >> there is no doubt about that. her speech was essentially a traditional defense of the multilateral trading in securities system the world, the west, have seen since world war ii. the crowd really liked it. theas a contrast with
sporadic applause vice president pence got when he prevented -- presented the trump administration's case for unilateralism. what is the way forward given we have split across iturity, trade, geopolitics? we have the u.s.-north korea summit but by and large the u.s. is still very isolated. i don't personally think the u.s. can hope to succeed with its unilateralism. with its traditional allies in europe and elsewhere, or for that matter in its trade disputes with china. it is not in my opinion to have any chance of getting the chinese government to materially
change is a structural and economic policies. they could buy more soybeans and things like that without the united states establishing or leading a global coalition to demand this. it isn't with the trump administration had in mind. shery: the german chancellor ridiculed president trump's suggesting that auto tariffs were a threat. reports an auto tariffs coming up. what do we expect on this, and how will this affect the relationship between the u.s. and europe? be -- the expect to commerce department to basically do what it is told, issue a report that shows that were claims that this is a national security threat and then provide the white house with a range of options in how to proceed.
then it will be entirely up to the white house and president trump himself whether he will tariffs.o levying i don't think there should be any doubt, and the e.u. has been clear that if he does so, the e.u. with -- will retaliate. this will lead to a far more severe transatlantic trade war over steel and aluminum. i have no doubt further caused deterioration. shery: thank you so much for joining us. from can regard copenhagen. japan and south korea open at the top of the hour. we are expecting gains in asia as we had wall street rallying at the close on friday. have the s&p 500 at the 10 week high. coming up next, we will preview a big week of data with the lead
haidi: a very good warning. asia's major markets have just open for trade. shery: good evening from the global headquarters in new york. "daybreak:come to asia." ♪ haidi: our top stories, asian stocks are set for gains after a strong session. investors increasingly optimistic about a trade deal. the focus switches back to washington. president trump is being briefed on the trade talks so far. high-profilea
victim, slumping. shery: asian stocks gaining ground at the moment. let's get straight to the market action with sophie. sophie: let's set up how the sentiment is gearing up for the start of trade in tokyo. you have the yen holding steady. yen traders are not seeing a boj'sve boost from the decision. let's check in on the open in tokyo. we have the nikkei adding 1.5% after faltering on friday. movers that are helping to boost these markets in tokyo we have softbank gaining about 3.2% so far. we are seeing australian stocks on the rise like the bhp gaining ground. overall, we are seeing asian
stocks build on the momentum we saw from a on friday. first let's get you the word news with ramy innocencio in new york. ramy: the ecb admits a slowdown in the euro zone is a significant. it could change the rates if it becomes clear the situation is not temporary. it says the extended weakness at the end of last year took policymakers by surprised with italy sliding into recession and germany narrowly missing the same fate. global uncertainty is the main problem facing the economy. theresa may is pleading with conservative party colleagues to unite behind her deal as she prepares to go back to brussels for or talks. she goes amid more signs of stress triggered by the split from europe. the regional airline flybmi stopped flying and said brags it was partly to blame. deal divorce no
would be costly. report from tokyo say japan briefly considered canceling the trade talks with the u.k. this week. that was after receiving a letter from london that was deemed offensive. huntgn secretary jeremy wrote that time is of the essence in reaching a post-brexit deal. the paper says japanese officials thought the letter reflected an increasingly high-handed approach by london. bill gates says he is increasingly concerned about the high budget deficit run by the united states. he has repeated his view that if higher taxes are introduced, the richest people should pay more. he told cnn that the u.s. only collects 10% -- 20% of gdp but spends 24%. that cannot continue. the national debt climbed past $22 trillion last week.
i am ramy innocencio, this is bloomberg. watchingr more on markets this week we have joiningst mark hatfield us from singapore. in early training session -- trading session but positive. we had the rally on wall street. will this be sustained throughout the week? is definitely a big factor. the lending numbers came out pretty much after the markets closed on friday. that is something relatively new for people to digest. the numbers are huge. it is good indication that the stimulus is beginning to work. if that is passed on into the real economy, if it goes through to consumers and property lending, it will show up in the first quarter data. people will be hopeful that what datae as the first quarter
starts to come through. we have some numbers next week that will be important for china. the could really show that chinese stimulus is working and will add to the positive mood which we have seen in chinese markets this year. all of this builds into the positive news we get from trade talks as well. at the moment, people just want to look at the picture and things are certainly looking good for this weekend -- week in asian equity markets. really we are going to start to switch our attention to europe. as you are saying in the news earlier, the ecb is thinking about what it might need to do. it is very concerned about the slowdown. you got a number of reports coming out from europe. we also got some important data. the ecb will be watching these
very carefully. we have already reported that the lead people in the ecb are considering that they may need to do a more long-term fixed rate lending. when they lend it to european banks and they are considering another round of these. at relativelyuns low rates it helps liquidity. that will be a positive sign for european markets. that could be the final trigger for europe to do such a move. of course, it might just be a short-term boost. whether it can really sustain european growth is another question. theecb looks ready to join fed who have already gone a bit dovish. we could see some dovish signals this week from the ecb as well. you can follow more on this story and all the day's trading on the live blog on the
bloomberg. down,n get a market run commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors. hong kong has fallen victim to the u.s.-china trade war with economic growth slumping at the end of last year as exports stagnated. us now mackenzie joins from beijing. we talk about hong kong having a gateway to china. this is just a reminder that it does go both ways. very material impact from the trade tensions, even when you have paris at 10% on the chinese exports. consider if the trade deal talks fall apart, likely to 25%. this was hong kong's finance secretary putting out a blog post saying growth in the fourth quarter fell to 1.5%. he was really laying the blame squarely at the foot of the trade tensions saying it is
starting to have a significant effect. certainly the trade tensions seem to be in focus for hong kong's leaders. at 3% for the entire year of 2018, a lowly government expectations of around 3.2%. that was the forecast of november of last year. just a reminder of what is at stake as these trade talks continue. shery: we see the impact on car sale date is out later? tom: the impact is already being felt. 2018 we saw them dropping the most in two decades. consumers feeling the pinch. the economic slowdown was part of that as well as the trade tensions. around, you saw sales of 22.7 million units. the china association of automobile manufacturers expect that to be in line or flat again.
there have been the likes of sales that he things will be a challenging year for 2019 for auto sales in this market. on it making up 5% of china's growth in the auto sector. one positive with the earnings suggesting they saw about a 2% tick in sales. some of the stimulus measures are being put in play are already starting to have affect even though there is broader disappointment about the extent of the measures. some a blowout ratings on money supply and chinese credit. does this suggest we are seeing transmission when it comes to loosened monetary policy? is: it seems that it starting to have an impact. we have a terminal chart that shows month by month, the aggregate social financing numbers. for january,number 20 19, more than three times the amount of stimulus -- or amount
of liquidity i should say that was put into play in december. you are looking at about 4.6 trillion u.n. -- youan. even if you do strip out those signal effect it does seem that the liquidity in the moves by policymakers, particularly the pboc, is starting to have some effect. as mark was saying it is probably likely to lead to some optimism among investors and business leaders. shery: still ahead, rockets on isurity says more volatility guaranteed. more of the week ahead for asia. central bank suddenly in the spotlight as we speak to an economist next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
this is daybreak asia. singapore's finance minister will him to strike a delicate balance when he releases the state budget later on monday. prudenceaching fiscal while boosting fiscal spending. southeast asia economics reporter joins us now. what are you watching out for? is a delicate balance between what we know as a very strong fiscal prudence in singapore versus what we have in perhaps this election year. spendingf the list and are a lot of priorities we talked about. especially since last budget but all throughout the year. what they want to do is increase social and health care spending for this key generation that came of age around the time of
independence. we have a lot of goodies in-store perhaps for that $8eration amounting to billion in singapore dollars. we will see a huge package there . officials are fond of saying they not done building singapore. that could come in the form of different projects but as well as financing and perhaps more funding for what they rolled out last year. a whole office dedicated to filtering these types of projects here and in the region. those are big priorities as well as defense spending might be on the list. we are expected to hear about the rising side of security. there is also been an announcement in the last few months that singapore is interested in f-35 jets. look for that to be balanced out with tax increases. poised to increase from 9% from 7% at some point between 2021 and 2025.
a lot on the plate, a lot to balance between spending as far as the prudence message. shery: we are expecting tied gdp numbers for the fourth quarter, what can we expect to see? michelle: officials are looking for validation. re-think of thailand raising the interest rate for the first time in more than seven years. the first change in three years. what they are looking for is a fairly steady number to show that would justify that they can get more policy space in before the next downturn. they're looking at things like tourism, which kind of fell apart in the third quarter of last year. of the economic slowdown as well as a couple of incidents in tourism. they're looking for a recovery there also to see how strong consumption and business spending are. we have an election in late march and they want to see that the fundamentals are ok as these risks set in.
trade war risks always in the background to the exports that are so important to thailand's economy. haidi: thank you so much. sean fenner is a senior asia cannot -- economist. great to have you with us. we just heard from michelle about the gdp numbers out of thailand. the last set of data before the thai elections. how big of a risk is domestic politics to the outlook this year? we have seen before it can be quite a considerable risk. if the right -- the election does not run smoothly, if there impact ins, there is terms of sentiment. have continued to
be stronger in q4. haidi: what are your expectations and where are we going to see the biggest risk? for gdp toe looking eventually pick up. primarily driven by domestic demand. we are looking for investment to accelerate. inching up in private investment as well as consumption and remaining quite strong. see exportsy to remain soft. the big impact of whether gdp will reach it is what happens to imports. imports surged ahead in q3. we could see that again in q4. seen economic -- economic weakness around the area. all of this is playing into the
idea that even if you are not seeing it necessarily in the actual numbers, certainly they are taking a dent on the u.s.-china trade war uncertainty. you are very right. obviously november and december trade has been weighed by china and the region more broadly. that reflects not just the u.s.-china trade war but also the fact that chinese import demand has been slowing. chinese import demand is extremely important for the region. going forward, we do expect the export growth to remain quite challenging. import demand will continue to slow in china. how can this be reversed? macroeconomic policies china has been implementing will see chinese gdp growth stabilize. import demand will not slow as much as we saw in 2015-2016.
one plus would be if we do see some a resolution in the u.s.-china trade war. numbers thatade came out of china last week, we had the money supply numbers which even if you strip out the seasonality of what you get in january, were still very impressive. does that give you some hope that we are close to a bottom and monetary policy is starting to see effective transmission? sian: at the gives us some hope that we are seeing the system put in place feeding through. it gives us more conviction about our view that gdp growth will bottom. sentimentovide a boost not only for the outlook and china's economy but also the rest of the world in the region more generally. shery: is there any risk about china slotting the financial system with liquidity? at the moment liquidity is
needed. not only to boost investment infrastructure at the chinese new year they usually do need an increase in liquidity. i don't pick we are moving to a more debt fueled pickup in growth. we think they will remain constrained and not undoing all aiminggood they did in for more deleveraging and financial risks. expecting any big government stimulus package in singapore in order to send some potential growth risks? sian: not for this budget. as were previous reporter said, it will not be prudent. when households there will be more information regarding the package. that is the increase in spending and health care and social spending more generally. the focus will continue to be on
productivity growth. we should get some idea about these revenue boosting policies they will put in place for long-term stability. we have almost a synchronized cover should -- a doiness -- and dovishness, you think they are in the right spot at the moment in terms of -- potentially preparing to have more tools? sian: given the downside risk on the external side, the fact that we have seen a central banks across the region become more is right.more neutral inflation pressures remain quite benign. we are expecting that most central banks in the region will remain on hold this year. shery: what about bank indonesia? sian: at present, no, some of
on risks that had pressure it have actually listen. idr is still vulnerable it has a cap deficit and a fiscal deficit. as we go further out, we say with the u.s. rising rates once say it banke indonesia will probably raise rates once. but only by 25 points. haidi: always appreciate your time. let's take a look at what is moving in the japanese session this morning. athie: taking a look bridgestone jumping as much as 8.8% earlier. tireis the world's biggest maker announced a 1.8 billion dollars share buyback on friday. it came as a surprise in light of the announced plan to acquire tom-tom. on friday, bridgestone says it will buy as much as 7.6% of its own shares.
you can see that today's job has ease the decline for the year when it comes to bridgestone. that buyback kicks off this monday. shery: you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going on today's ."ition of "daybreak you can customize your settings so you only get the news that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
million u.s. dollars with net income of 1.7 billion the u.s.. as rangeiggest banks was 1.5 percent, slightly lower than the 1.7% from a year earlier. bloomberg daybreak middle east we will -- aidi: icbc's bid to launch wealth management asset has been approved. it says it has received applications from several other lenders. asked year it said it was planning to invest $2.5 billion in a new operation. bank has been censured for feeling a confidential report. the r.b.i. assessment identified -- yes banklatory
has said the r.b.i. found no diversions is i loans in the last financial year which caused shares to jump the most since 2005. quick let's look at our -- let's take a quick look at the asian markets. we are off to a positive start after i strong hangover from wall street. surging to the highest in 10 weeks. a really broad-based rally. the are seeing the nikkei to to five trading at its highest since december 2018. energy and oil names leading those gains after we had the oil priceving the jumping to the highest this year. seeing gains of about half a percent when it comes to australia. every market that is trading at the moment is seeing some positivity. shery: coming up next.
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.amy: this is daybreak asia i am ramy inocencio. gensler angela merkel -- chancellor angela merkel defended multilateral institutions at the munich security conference. she took american protectionism to task, calling for cooperation and trade to continue. mike pence drew a muted response as he touted american leadership and singled out chinese telecom huawei. >> united states has been clear with our security partners with the threat posed by huawei and other telecom companies. chinese law requires companies to provide any access to data
that touches their network or equipment. we must protect our infrastructure. >> people should not and cannot be misled. huawei as a company is cooperating very closely with european companies -- countries in the fourth industrial revolution. we should all work together and chinese law doesn't require companies to install back doors are collect -- or collect intelligence. reported it can mitigate risks from huawei networks equipment. erickson denied things restrictions on huawei products could see europe fall behind in the communications race. they have been backed by nokia saying they are already building front running five g networks. senior lawmakers requiring the measurest take tougher
like facebook -- for companies like facebook to be kept in check. parliament is being urged to create new laws to help a proposed regular -- regulator oversee the industry. saudi arabia's crown prince said his country has signed memorandums of understanding in pakistan worth $20 billion. he was welcomed i the prime minister at the start of an toan tour that will take him china and india. this includes deals in agriculture and industry, and a $10 billion oil refinery. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. singapore'sng january nonoil domestic numbers coming through. it is ugly. we were looking for a rebound of
7%, after december's number was the biggest drop in two years. we have seasonally adjusted contraction of 5.7% mirroring the previous month. whoppingtion of a 10.1% year am a worse than the contraction of 3.2% we were expecting and worse than the 8.5% decline in december which was the worst in two years. electronic exports seeing a brief recovery last year, almost 16% in the month of january, breaking it down by the number that you see clear the most waning demand. chinese exports declining 25% in the month of january. the u.s. seeing a decline of 5%. disappointing number's hong kong, the decline of almost 12% when it comes to demand for singapore exports.
we will get you more of a breakdown but that doesn't paint a good picture for the start of the year even the drown tend -- the downtrend started from september into december, with these export vulnerable economies starting from november last year. looking at asian markets, because before this drop of data we had a positive handover from wall street friday. sophie: looking good. we are not derailing optimism around trade given the u.s. and china will be entering another round of talks in washington, dc this week. we are seeing muted reaction reaction --est numbers from singapore. the singapore dollar below 136 against the greenback. stocks are gaining ground, led higher by japan. the nikkei 225 snapping a drop while the yen is little changed are the recent bond buying not proving positive for the yen as they had hoped. the kospi is rising on trade
optimism. the korean won is up .1%. aussie shares are being led higher by resource players, asx 200 up half a percent. looking at movers in sydney, we have big decliners this morning out of australia. bingo industries falling the most on record after cutting its forecast on a faster than expected slowdown in construction activity. the bank of queensland sinking the most since november 2017 after they flagged first-half profit less than expected. -- profits that were less than expected. share buybacks the ceo said even with buybacks and the position -- the acquisition, bridgestone will maintains sound finances. shery: now u.s. politics because andrew mccabe said the agency has reason to investigate president trump's ties to
russia. it is astounding the president preferred to believe vladimir putin over american intelligence aides. let's bring in josie schneider. feudcontinues the ongoing with the president. reporter: that is right. these are explosive comments from mr. mccain, -- mr. mccabe, the director before he was fired, but he is not only saying that but also saying in his view the president really has -- may have obstructed justice when he fired mr. comey as fbi director. explosive allegations there. this comes as we are getting word that there was private testimony to congress, several former fbi lawyers had said there has been talk of possibly
removing president trump in 2017, months after his inauguration, including by members of his own administration, his own cabinet at that point under the 25th amendment. they had said deputy attorney general rod rosenstein considered secretly recording president trump. this is more backing up of that. these are the kinds of things swirling around washington, the kinds of things president trump often attacks in tweets as fake news and saying these are people that have a witchhunt. at the same time it shows this is very much still in the news, and we won't be seeing this go away anytime soon. when it comes to the latest trade talks, markets are optimism -- optimistic that something has been reached this week. what is next in the talks?
reporter: they are continuing to talk. the news is positive. there is optimistic feeling. president trump saying these were productive meetings and there are things to be hopeful from. his threat is on the table that if they don't reach a deal march 1, he will double those duties, tariffs more than $200 billion on chinese imports. there is a real deadline. if it looksaying like progress has been made, the deadline will be extended. the president wants to bring in democrats as part of this in a campaign to sell a deal with china which would be an interesting turn of events. there is positive talk. he met with members of his cabinet to figure out what happens next as the deadline ticks down, if israel.
shery: the president going it alone, declaring an executive order emergency at the border. and we expect challenges from members of congress? we will see both challenges on the judicial front and the legislative front. there is expected to be legal challenges. we expected all along there would be legal challenges quickly. nancy pelosi, the house speaker, has said they perhaps will file challenges we can expect them on several fronts. also we will now see both in the house and perhaps by democrats in the senate challenges legislatively they want to go ahead and try to pass a resolution opposing this. these resolutions are not binding and won't have a lot of affect, but it does show there is concern in congress. republicans will cross the aisle
and vote for these are there is concern the president has overstepped his bounds. congress handles spending, not the executive branch and they are concerned about this kind of action. it looks like there will be a lot of opposition to this and it will take forms of legislative and judicial protest this very week. thank you so much, our senior international editor there in hong kong. is watchingst increased volatility across fx as trade issues dominate. this is bloomberg. ♪
downside is strong for the euro. the dollar will remain big in the short to medium term. let'sto have you are start off with the dollar because it has been they had scratcher. one of the ways you can correlate dollar performance, this is u.s. gdp as a percentage of world gdp. it is obvious to say when the u.s. is doing well you expect a stronger dollar but given the fed turned dovish there are concerns about our we nearing a recession? data has disappointed. has it confounded you we see still dollar strength? nick: i think so but probably the change in the last six months, over the last couple of months since the fed turned dovish, it is coming in as a stronger play on the safe haven currency. it is the best of the bad bunch. haidi: like a return to base effect? nick: i think so.
the dollar index has been making steady gains, despite volatility we have seen through different sentiment changes. that will continue into 2019. haidi: what is the catalyst for a reversal because a lot depends on this including the commodities outlook or emerging markets. the main catalyst is the u.s.-china trade situation. geopolitics across the board will influence where we are going to go. even though we are seeing a positive indication over the last few trading sessions, doesn't seem like we will get a long-term solution any time soon. that will lend to the dollar continuing to appreciate. shery: that was my thought as well, when you see the u.s. economic data outperforming many other regions like europe. the charts on the bloomberg showing data in europe has missed estimates. in the last week or so we saw that surprise drop in u.s. economic data right there.
when you put the u.s. dollar against the euro, how should you position? nick: it is a good point and the retail sales last week were disappointing from a u.s. data perspective. i still think we will see that dollar sort of probably meandering. it is a bad word to use but meandering higher against the euro. the data from the european spectrum has been poor. we have geopolitics pressuring the euro on that side of the world. that will dictate that we do see the euro move down against the dollar and probably on the cross as well. shery: and with the brexit risk, that would only apply to sterling. his brexit -- is brexit risk being factored into euro weakness? nick: i think so. it is another change in dynamic over the last three months. brexit risk is being realized across the channel in the continent. we are seeing pressure on the
euro. when it looks like a hard brexit may come. the change in the data from the european, from the whole continent really has made that pressure more real and sort of, as much as we are seeing european politicians push back against the hard brexit, i don't think it is in anyone's interest to see that occur with the data coming out of europe, german industrial production numbers that were stalking a couple of weeks ago, i think that is a zonerisk to the european as well as the u.k. economy and the pound. haidi: do people have to price in kicking down the can, that article 50 will be happening -- extended? nick: i think it will happen. nobody wants that. we would like to see a resolution, but if we get the can kicked down the road, we will go back to the last nine months of waiting on the next
update. does the pound fly higher or get crushed? of things are not behaving the way they should, even the aussie, base metals rallying, some optimism but that is not benefiting the aussie. is it a lot of waiting and seeing? nick: i think that is the problem. there is short-term volatility. thursday we were looking down again. friday we were up. we saw strange dynamics friday where gold appreciated even though we had an upturn in market sentiment. and that will continue until we get clarity going forward. shery: what about haven demand affecting the japanese yen and interest rate differentials? yen is the classic haven trade. we are not seeing a flight around against the dollar. it comes back to that dynamic where the dollar is seen as a haven as well.
if you look at the cross charts, aussie-yen is a good rominger, they are starting to move around. i think until we get certainty, the yen becomes a good buy over the medium term. shery: what about china? are the traders bearish? how do you position the yuan? nick: it is another currency we will see increased and volatility -- increase in volatility. we are seeing a flurry of data in china as well. but what we are also seeing is reaction from the chinese government. we are seeing stimulus. i think we see short-term spikes in volatility. we see stimulus or an upturn in the trade situation, but i don't -- i think the consistency could be a yuan depreciation over the next six to nine months. shery: always great to have you
the special governance committee may recommend the carmaker appoint an independent director to oversee board meetings at nissan. limit the next chairman. but the german would be the key core nader with renault and mitsubishi. -- the chairman would be the key coordinator with renault and mitsubishi. haidi: this u.k. supermarket sainsbury has filed baincapital to work with -- hired baincapital to work with them on a merger with walmart. they say it would create $640 million in savings. the authority has said it sees the loss of one of the big four u.k. chains to push up prices. shery: citigroup is in talks with the middle east back to group to buy a tower in london's canary wharf. the bank wants to buy 25 canada square from agc equity partners are the price tag was $1.6
billion. the office market has remained buoyant despite the broader economic slowdown ahead of brexit. world's biggest name is tesla but there is a small canadian company that aims to plug into the growing market. we have this report. reporter: all electric like a tesla, priced like a ford fiesta and one of the weirdest looking vehicles you have ever seen. introducing the solo. >> a clean energy electric vehicle that was an opportunity to great not to seize. reporter: it costs $1500 and is being and built in vancouver. it has 23,000 solo preorders demandeet -- and to meet it will mass-produce a model in china. >> it was a type of car that inld be equipped -- built
under three hours. >> it has over 100 miles of range and charges in three hours. it is charged with a specific group in mind. the company said 83% of north american commuters drive to work alone each day. the question is whether those commuters would be prepared to drive to work in something like this that you can just sit in. the -- fit in your their optimism is in fact are the numbers. >> seven out of 10, it is a .ruck being bought so a single seater limits you to a specific user. >> there are areas bloomberg intelligence sees as promising. this one is looking at car sharing. 7-eleven and dhl are testing for delivery. >> you don't need two seats, why do you have a second seat? >> shares have fallen since the company ipo'd on the nasdaq.
but they say the solo will be profitable. >> 25% gross profit built into the design, and that is fine. >> they hope to decide desk it 20,000 in 2020. longer-term production can be brought back home. general motors announced in october it was closing its offshore site after 100 years of manufacturing in canada. they say a company is interested in the site. they are eyeing more passengers with a sporty two-seater all electric roadster, but can it handle the challenge of meeting billions of dollars worth of preorders? ed ludlow, bloomberg news, vancouver. shery: we have the latest health check on key apple suppliers as the company grapples with slowing demand. foxconn said january sales fell 7% year on year while tsmc slashed its first-quarter
guidance. so what drove these disappointing numbers and outlook? reporter: what we see generally is some apple part makers and foxconn tech and catcher technology make iphone casings. we see the revenue drop partly due to the weakening demand for iphones. assemblers like [indiscernible] in general,e rose but it is the continuation of profit margins that worry investors. we have seen their share price struggling to pick up. and then there are some analysts saying they expect iphone demand maybe we'll pick up in the second quarter. that remains to be seen -- will
pick up in the second quarter. that remains to be seen. haidi: what about the chemical contamination incident? tsmc had cut its first-quarter revenue guidance and then this5.4% is already the second incident in the factory that disrupted production over the past year. right now there are some investors that may be concerned that the new management at tsmc are struggling to meet the height -- the high [indiscernible] set up by the founder. believe it remains the same after the current chairman -- both of them [indiscernible]
shery: thank you so much for that. let's get a preview now of what to watch in markets with sophie in hong kong. sophie: we have more profit warnings from chinese companies. this one seeing a 50% drop in 2018 profits. and fourth-quarter results -- keeping an eye on m1 in singapore. they have to sell ahead of the expiation offer today. for daybreaks it asia. markets coverage continues looking ahead to the open of trading in hong kong and shenzhen. stand by for china open. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ i'm a veteran
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quick 9:00 a.m. in hong kong. this is "bloomberg markets china open." >> a positive start for china stocks after a positive session in the u.s.. investors are optimistic about a trade deal. >> signs of progress. president trump has been briefed on talks so far. >> signs of stress among allies. the united states and germany -- huawei criticism.