tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg February 21, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EST
3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. i'm vonnie quinn. guy: i'm guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie: following economic data this morning that was mixed, we are getting home sales coming in just shy of estimates in january. month over month down 1.2%. the market looking for a positive 2% number. january analysts are looking for up .1%. business investment and philly fed index numbers, but employment data didn't disappoint. we will be discussing all of that in a moment. let's get to the markets. the s&p 500 down about 4/10 of 1%.
the dow and the nasdaq also down about 1/3 to 4/10 of 1%. makes lithium and other, calls. it said -- and other chemicals. it said they didn't see any macro headwinds. caterpillar up 6%. well.ock up 1.5% as to h&r blockill go this year given the tax overhauls. revenues have been down year-over-year. dragging the s&p 500 lower is the oil and gas equipment index, including baker hughes and others. s&p is the worst performer there. definitely a risk on
mentality taking place in the markets right now. the stoxx 600 is down, the ftse 100 underperforming. it is the banks and some of the utilities, plus some of the today.stocks leading bid over the last couple of hours as well. the yen is also bid, which adds to this risk off sentiment. when it comes to the volume story, european stocks trading on above average volume, which tells me the market is convinced of this move to the downside and piling into it. talking of the china story, we have seen significant move overnight in the aussie dollar. a real rosie cook -- a real roller coaster ride for the aussie currency. with a callng out that expects the rba to cut twice this year.
the guy that made that call, some thing of a bond guru down in australia. thatd this story as well industries and china were blocking imports of australian coal. a lot coming for overnight for the aussie dollar. draft: china offering to u.s. agricultural goods comes as the latest high-level talks kick off in washington this morning. you can see the pictures there from just a little earlier on. we are joined by michael, bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. we already knew china was offering to buy more soybeans. what is the latest offering from china as part of the memoranda of understanding? thatel: this report is china has agreed to buy $30 billion more. but what exactly we are talking about, soybeans in 2017, we sold
them about $24 billion worth. that was the last clean read on what their demand is. their demand is not going to go up $30 billion a year. what they might do is agreed to buy more from the u.s. and less from other places. we don't know. that remains to be seen. interesting side data as we watch these fully bring -- the , the usdaices climb put out their first crop planting estimates for the year. they are estimating that u.s. farmers will cut back almost 5% on the acreage they devote to soybeans, in part because they can't trust what will happen with trade deals. if that is the kate, that will drive soybean prices up, and may be less for china to be able to buy. not clear yet. guy: i was just mentioning what was happening with the aussie dollar overnight. quite a lot of reaction to this report that may be australian coal wasn't being allowed into china. can i see these stories as being the same?
is there a narrative between what is happening between the u.s. and china and china and australia? emma: it does look like --michael: it does look like the chinese are taking a hard line on people clamping down on their industries. this centers around other countries incorporating huawei products to 5g technology. australia agreed to go along with the united states and ban huawei, and the chinese seem to be retaliating. we can't prove it, but it does seem they are not sitting back and just taking it. vonnie: the memoranda under discussion are said to include issues such as technology transfer. we know that china uses trade as a weapon in some ways, but the includemoranda nontariff barriers to services. what might me see for material impact, or are we really just looking at grain exports, imports, and technology? michael: you have to separate
the idea of buying more u.s. products from the rest of the issues. it is all about how china manages its economy, both the intellectual property theft and technology transfer, and the idea that china subsidizes state owned companies to try to leapfrog the united states and other countries in terms of technologies. we want them to change that, and that is going to be the hardest thing to get from them. it appears right now they are trying to kick the can down the road, create more space so the president will back off on the march 1 deadline for additional tariffs. if they have a roadmap for future negotiations that they can use, there's probably no way they can reach an agreement in the next 10 days on all of these outstanding items. guy: i'm curious, how should the market react to all of this? if you sense that progress is being made and that march 1 deadline is going to be superseded by a subsequent deadline, it is fascinating.
we are going to talk about the market reaction to this. the market is taking a very risk off view today of the world. michael: the market has wanted to believe that there would be some resolution to this, so we haven't seen major reactions other than the price of soybeans start to rise. it is hard to know how much is actually priced in. the good news is at this point, they are still talking. that is. all we really know but the idea -- that is all we really know. but the idea they have not broken it off suggests some progress is being made. trade deals take a very long time to be negotiated. the idea you could do it in 90 days was very unrealistic. that is why people, i think, are very hopeful this will get extended. vonnie: that is michael mckee, our international economics and policy correspondent. we are joined by our cross asset reporter at bloomberg news. maybe you can answer how much is priced in if there weren't to be
an extension? reporter: all the elements seem to be positive across the board, but the thing here is nobody was waiting for the actual deal before piling into a lot of the china link proxies. by that extension, signs of a deal are actually more news to the markets. i thing another part of this is right now the market has never a risingared for interest rates, and a china deal , and also signs that china credit growth is growing back, and caterpillar saying china demand is very strong. vonnie: i said it at the top. reporter: thank you for doing so. suggest maybeigns throwing in the towel so much on global growth and inflation might not have been the best thing. yields up could be hitting risk assets more broadly. guy: do i therefore ignore the minutes from last night? reporter: i think the minutes
last night essentially codified the breadth of the desire to be patient on the fed, and the fed's renewed desire to not hurt the market. i think six months ago we were talking about hike until something breaks, and now it is pretty clear there's been a shift to we think we are around neutral, so we are in more of a do no harm position. i don't think there was anything new from the fed yesterday. in the wake of the fed we kind of got whipsawed. i think that is more from the , approachingective that range where we have three intermediate peaks after that september 20 all-time high. behink it is difficult to searching for reasons why we are going up and down on a given day. there is a china deal or extension, the minutes yesterday seemed to make it obvious that at the very least,
there was only going to be one hike this year, and probably no hikes. right? but if we do get a deal, does that put the hike back on the table? vonnie: i wouldn't put --michael: i wouldn't put any number of hikes on the table that they might do. when they get new information, they change their mind. when the market gets new information or thinks it gets new information, it wants to think it's changed their mind. they did give us a list of reasons why they might want to pause, and the china trade deal was one of those reasons. the government shutdown was one of those reasons. business concerns that have led them to pull back on investment have the fed's attention. as they watch these things come and go, they will have a clearer picture. we get rid of china as a trade issue. that maybe helps europe. if europe is helped, that helps
demand in the united states. putshat if donald trump car tax tariffs on europe? there is a sense that government bond markets have moved too far. we are seeing a decent moving yields so far. is that down to positioning or news flow? luke: i think we see it in some news products. you're seeing a bit of a build in short interest in some of and thatrmediate etf, is a sign that this is what stands out in markets this year. the fact we have had this amazing snapback and risk assets, and that bond markets are much closer to the january low then where it started in december, that is kind of the anomaly. when you look at it that way, investors being very certain that the outlook for inflation and growth over the next 10 years is very low, and the outlook for fed hikes over the
next 10 years is fairly depressed. when you throw all that together, that very low term premium and low implied bond volatility, there is put a much nowhere to go but up. vonnie: thanks to our guests, michael mckee and luke kawa. guy: let's get a first word news update. here's kailey leinz. kailey: british prime minister theresa may is trying to escape the brexit impact. she has sent two of her ministers to brussels with proposed changes to the agreement to make it acceptable to the house of commons. that follows a meeting with european commission president jean-claude juncker that was described as constructive. still, a british official says don't expect a new deal by next week. a u.s. coast guard officer will appear in court today after being accused in a terror plot aimed at high-profile democrats and journalists. he had stockpiled weapons and a washington suburb and plotted to kill house speaker nancy pelosi
and a handful of democrat senators putting elizabeth warren, kamala harris, and cory booker. house democrats will fall a resolution tomorrow trying to block president trump's a resolution- file tomorrow trying to block president trump's emergency declaration to build a border wall. however, there is not enough support to override a presidential veto. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. coming up, we are going to be continuing to watch global markets throughout the session as china talks continue in washington, d.c. right now . stocks are seeing another leg lower. the dow down 0.5%. the s&p 500 as well. the nasdaq is down 3/4 of 1% right now. this is bloomberg.
♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." let's get an update on those markets now. abigail doolittle. abigail: s&p 500 down about 4/10 of 1%, ftse 100 down about 1%. lots of talk about what's ahead for trade between the u.s. and china. there's also talk around the fed , that yesterday's minutes were a little more hawkish than expected. the 10 year yield up four basis points, perhaps pressuring stocks. the rally we've had this year fueled by the fed perhaps taking a pause or even reversing. one headline around trade, the
idea that china has proposed the possibility of increasing imports of grains by $30 billion. we see soybeans rallying. if we happen the bloomberg see the story over the last year, we are going to see a split between soybeans, corn and wheat. corn and wheat higher over that time period, soybeans lower. china is a big importer of u.s. soybeans. there are many details that need to be worked out. plus, more proof is needed to back up the market reaction. as for what is moving the s&p 500, some of those laggards on the day, to get this. hormel foods guidance not so great. johnson & johnson down about 1%, facing subpoenas from the apartment of justice and sec around tainted talc. we have big tech shares trading off not on news, but investors
selling high beta stocks again after fed minutes came out a little bit more hawkish. the reason this matters, if we go back into the bloomberg and take a look at a chart of the nasdaq, this tech heavy index has a sideways trend on the year, but back below that 200 day moving average. we have seen that over the last few months acting as a resistance. it may just suggest sellers are about to step back up, but not dovish enough around that policy shift last month. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thank you for that update. joining us now is and lester, portfolio manager and head of time at solutions at j.p. morgan -- head ofement retirement solutions at j.p. morgan asset management. we had a nice few years where stocks were just increasing. the bull kept running, and people really just got back on their feet again. what are the concerns now?
guest: i think we are investing in the late cycle. what are the generic market returns going to be? what we focus on one with think about retirement and 401(k) investing in particular, especially for older workers, is the combination of portfolios losing money, what happens in a bear market, and that combined with people withdrawing money because they are retiring, and that is really toxic. we make sure we are ready for where someone is in their life journey of investing. vonnie: these days, what constitutes a safe asset? guest: it is interesting. for a decade, pretty much since the bottom of the market, we have not owned cash in our portfolio. we have a little cash right now. we have owned equity and a little cash. guy: does that mean the bonds are no longer a low risk asset?
guest: we are neutral-ish on fixed income assets, but we don't want to add more to credit at this time in the cycle. i think bonds are safer, and we still think you will get that diversification benefit, but if we are selling equities right now, we would rather put it in cash, which is generating real yield for the first time in a decade. guy: do you hold bias in your portfolios? guest: what we do is really have less of a home bias. is a touch of home bias, i'd say, versus an all country equity weighting. income,y our fixed broadly speaking, except for emerging-market debt. that is a home bias. we feel like the currency volatility doesn't really pay vis-a-vis return equity, but it
would say -- but it is, i would say, less of a bias. vonnie: for those starting off their 401(k)s or have many years' savings to go, where is now considered the riskier assets that are still 401(k) where they? -- 401k worthy? guest: really, you should be putting your money in every few weeks or every month and just letting it go. most have 90% in equities that is diversified. that is what you should do. if you are dollar cost averaging on your way in, which, again, the fourth quarter was a great time to put money into your plan. vonnie: in that case, what kind of funds you look for? you look for emerging-market equities? guest: there's a long-term strategic orientation, which is what is called a glide path. it is the mix of stocks and bonds you have. we would argue selling around
90% equity until you are in your late 30's is probably fine if you are putting money in consistently. that should be spread across everything. vonnie: we did have a huge increase in student loan to liquid sees recently. i am curious student loan delinquenc -- in student loan delete would s -- student loan delinquencies. guest: the data we get is fully anonymized to understand how debt intersects with people's ability to save. we will have more to come on that topic, but what we do see is younger workers really struggled to put enough money away, especially younger workers who are automatically enrolled in a plan. typically you are only saving 3%, and that is not enough. that is accommodation of not paying attention, just starting out, and for a lot of people, student loan debt. guy: should europeans invest citizens?y to u.s. is there a difference
geographically in the way people invest or they way they should invest? guest: that is a really complicated question. i guess my response is what are they trying to achieve because i don't think there is a generic right answer for that. where i would start is to say we believe in theory and that the all world equity index is the place to start, you have to know how much currency all agility you can manage. i guess the last thing i would add is a lot of different countries, like european countries, have a different tax structure. for retirement specifically, may be lower savings rates, slightly less equity risk, may be ok because they may have the equivalent of social security in those markets. vonnie: looking forward to that data. guest: so my -- so mi. -- so am i. vonnie: this is bloomberg.
♪ guy: incredible volatility overnight in the australian dollar, really worth paying attention to because a line can be drawn to what is happening in the united states vis-a-vis the trade story. you can see the spike on the left-hand side of the screen, the aussie jobs report. very strong. then this was a real shocker for the market, coming out and saying they expect cuts from the rba. then we have this cold story which really since the -- this coal story which really sent the aussie dollar down to a low. that is next. this is bloomberg.
-- let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. to buy china is offering an extra $30 billion in soybeans, corn, wheat, and other farm products. [indiscernible] [no audio] kailey: -- at least 81 people were killed. the fire started in a densely packed area with centuries-old buildings. -- abouts about two to to make it easier for banks to fire their top earners.
the law would loosen protections for a bank's so-called risktakers who earn $250,000 a year or more. that is expected to make germany more attractive for overseas banks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. for more on the impact of the u.s./china trade tensions on the financial services industry and what those in the industry see, we are joined by the ceo of ctbc bank usa. the bank is on both coasts of the u.s., at least 13 markets in asia, headquartered in taiwan. your clients are really at the face of what is happening in washington, d.c. on the one hand, we are hearing caterpillar saying it is fine.
trade with china is not impacting our business. on the other hand, we have seen consumer companies come out and say this is a big deal for us. what are your clients telling you? , and the current state of talks is going to be very welcome. 14 countries are on the pacific rim. there is definitely concern. there's definitely an effect on these trade tensions. nobody is willing to say that it is going to be a lethal blow, but people are concerned. i think the news of any breakthrough, any kind of conversation that leads to moving beyond the stalemate, moving beyond the threats, is going to be very good where our clients are concerned. our clients are looking forward to making sure that this doesn't affect their business so they can take defensive positions. i am sure this would be an opportunity for them to assess
whether they need to boast of those defenses and look at different markets. vonnie: what are you seeing in terms of loan demand or business investment from your clients in the u.s. and china? guest: that is a great question, and really a key piece of insight for us. we have actually not seen any let up in the demand. we are one of the few bicoastal lenders that looks at foreign investors, both on the commercial side and mostly on the residential side. we've seen more of an impact on the increase of demand on the residential mortgage side. we've grown that business from almost a standing start to almost $1 billion. for asiansthe desire overseas, not just china, to invest in u.s. residential property continues unabated. what impact is
the huawei case having in terms of appetite for m&a, desirability of u.s. targets? i am just wondering what impact a senior executive being arrested and the issues that china and the united states have with huawei are having. guest: there is definitely concern. people are scratching their heads in asia. the narrative is a little bit different, as you can imagine, on either side. in the united states, the narrative is well laid out. on the mainland and in greater china, people are more confused and intrigued i this turn of events. not just the wally case -- the huawei case, but the recent action by the committee which looks at strategic investments, and the expansion of the definition of what is a strategic investment in the sectors it can take has
definitely cast a pall over enthusiasm. considerably, by over 90%, so it is definitely heaven and effect -- definitely having an effect. i think it should be considered very carefully. guy: out of interest, what do you think is having a bigger effect on the chinese economy at moment? there is a clear slow down, but i am wondering if that is being caused more by the trade story or by the chinese deleveraging story. guest: that is a great question. i think it is a combination of both. they both hit around the same time. the deleveraging story, as you well know, china is a unique hybrid of command and control plus market economy. probably a unique experiment in history. they have the ability to turn a lot of levers at the same time that we in western economies find harder to do over a quicker
period of time. so they have a lot of dry powder. i think it is a testament to the meticulous way in which they manage their economy that saw this leveraging issue. they saw the excess debt, the amount of inflation that was being built into the system, and started deleveraging in a very meticulous manner. around the same time, these trade issues came up, so it became a force multiplier. 6%ing said that, a 5% to long-term growth plan with these strategic initiatives around roads, made in china, 2020 five, will lead to greater stability and continued amount of growth. vonnie: talk about mna cross-border and domestic china. obviously, cross-border is seeing more scrutiny. does that slow down to a halt?
on the other side, do we see ine in the day -- more m&a china being taken up by the government right now? guest: cross-border there has been a slowdown. there is less interest, both from a central perspective from the government in china. there is less of a push to expand overseas. -- on thetic market domestic market, this is very state-controlled. there might be consolidations in the property sector. there might be consolidations on the retail sector. real impetus for a lot of, day -- a lot of mna at this point. vonnie: so bank consolidation wouldn't help the inking industry in china -- the banking
that is not had any difficulties thus far. >> are coal is moving through -- coalold is moving -- our is moving for was no problems. we are trying to make sure we understand what it is, but at this stage we have not been affected. ceo speaking to us early on. if the reports are true, it could be retaliation for australia banning chinese company huawei from its 5g rollout. let's bring in will kennedy at bloomberg. we've been hearing some reports that the chinese are beginning to act a little more politically when it comes to caol imports -- when it comes to coal imports. reporter: whenever talking to japan about disputed islands, they slowed imports of japanese goods, so it does happen.
it does appear anecdotally, while we can't confirm this report that some coal cargoes are taking quite a long time to clear ports and customs, it may be that that has a political motivation. vonnie: only 2% of china's imports come in through delhi on -- through the city. will it have a material impact on things like steel producer prices in china? will: the price movements we seen today are driven on concern we are going to get a worsening dispute between china and its trade partners because of this huawei issue. trade between australia and significant. it is the second biggest market for chinese coal after japan. $8 billion more than in today's prices. it will be a real concern for australia and for australian
coal miners if the situation doesn't deteriorate. it is interesting when we spoke , there were some difficult issues with chinese coal imports. i'm sure there will be a lot of diplomatic activity to make sure this doesn't deteriorate from here. guy: the relationship between china and australia is absolutely massive. it is not just coal. it is iron ore. it is lots of things. basically this is the resource center for chinese growth, so it can only go so far. reporter: what is absolutely key to australia is iron ore, where these giant mines in northern australia operated by bhp and rio tinto are fueling the chinese industrial machine. afford a simply cannot
♪ oil is bouncing around ahead of the u.s. inventory data that is coming out from the government very shortly. let's go to the cme. what are you looking for, phil? guest: about another two and a half million barrels. i think this is a critical number here. if you look at the stocks and inventory, we've got 450 million barrels. the five-year average is close
to 470 million, so we've got quite a bit of inventory. where this market starts to turn and push higher is if you look at the important numbers, those have come down quite a bit. you look at the cushing oklahoma, the midpoint for the ,idwest for oil, the chokepoint it is right around 41 million barrels. the five-year average is closer to 48 million barrels. those are the reasons we've got u.s. oil so much lower than european oil right now. guy: you look at the contracts as well, it is the same thing. if this carries on, how much wider can that spread get? guest: we could see quite a bit. if you have saudi arabia and russia working together to bring down the opec inventories out there, really be compliant on their production levels, you could see brent crude oil prices continue to rise. if u.s. production levels are just under 12 million barrels a
day, we start to see a bit of a slowdown in our economy. you will see those prices come down as well. we are winding out of the spread, brent moving higher, debbie ti moving lower -- wti moving lower. guy: the global economy is clearly slowing down. i am wondering whether brent looks too rich at this point, and ti may be a more reasonable reflection of what is happening globally. guest: it is a good indication, and a good thing to watch. we might see that spread start to narrow, especially if the global economy slows down. the u.s. is still heating up as indicated by the fed. that is what a lot of people look at. on the we get movement trade deal, which weight is oil go? guest: i think oil goes significantly higher. now isoduction right
producing about 12 million barrels. our demand is 20 million barrels. venezuela is completely cut off. mexico, we had some issues with them regionally with the border wall talk. canada has also curbed a lot of their production. nigeria is a sensitive situation. oil prices come under a bit of stress and we push up possibly to 200 a moving average, right around $62 a barrel. guy: brent has gone through its 100 a moving average. some people say you can see fed rate hikes put back on the table, which could send the dollar higher. we will leave it there. phil, thank you. rjo joining us from futures. vonnie: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. in tech news, the ride-hailing service company lyft could file for an ipo as soon as next week.
bloomberg has learned the company will target a valuation between $20 billion and $25 billion. it may put the company ahead in its race to go public with larger competitor uber. more problems for danske bank. the danish lender is at the center of a huge on the laundering case. a u.s. exchange commission is conducting its own investigation. the bank is accused of letting a tiny branch in estonia, hub through which -- in estonia become a hub through which funds from the former soviet union flowed illicitly. nike says it is trying to identify a problem. for years, nike has sponsored
more college best of all teams then rivals its and under armour -- rivals adidas and under armour. today nike is down and under armour is up. let's get to our stock of the hour. guy: gam now higher. initially the stock down lower. let's find out why we are seeing the price action we are today. the company has come out and fired tim hayward, the man at the center of the sand will -- of the scandal. emma chandra, walk us through what we have seen. emma: earnings from the company were pretty ugly. they did like the news that the star bond manager tim hayward, who's been involved in scandal, has been dismissed for gross misconduct. a headline just crossing the bloomberg saying he will appeal that decision, saying he's a scapegoat. but still trading higher at the moment. we know from the earnings they lost another $3 billion in
assets under management, but that is nothing compared to the $26 billion over the course of 2018. take a look at the bloomberg. outflows.e those big as those outflows have continued across the year, this idea we have now seen tim hayward being finally dismissed perhaps suggests that may be line has been drawn. but as i said, he looks to be appealing that decision. vonnie: he is saying the process is unfair, prejudiced, and is committed tory. all guns blazing -- and discriminatory. all guns placing -- all guns blazing. tim hayward says the scandal will continue into 2019. the company has an acting ceo that took over three months ago, and he has done a fair amount to cut jobs, merge teams. there are more job cuts to come, but the outlooks have continued
as we are looking at that chart just a couple of months ago. sayings at citi restructuring would be of little comfort if they can't increase their earning power. all of this is happening for gam while the asset management industry is suffering in europe as well. a loss of about 80 billion euros in the last three months. vonnie: at the start of the session lower, now up. emma chandra, thank you. coming up, we will have oil inventories. wti right now close to $50 a barrel. this is bloomberg. this isn't just any moving day.
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guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. vonnie: this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: we are waiting for data coming through when it comes to oil industries. suffice to say that the oil sector is the worst performing on the s&p 500 today. we are now starting to get that data trickling through onto the screen. it looks like the market was right to expect a slightly bigger build than anticipated. the survey when it came to crude is supposed to be wildly off. we've come to a significant build. the cushing inventory looks like a sizable build. the market wasn't is betting that. not getting much reaction in wti at the moment. the price action not really bouncing around on this, but it does look like we are seeing a