tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 21, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EST
guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. vonnie: this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: we are waiting for data coming through when it comes to oil industries. suffice to say that the oil sector is the worst performing on the s&p 500 today. we are now starting to get that data trickling through onto the screen. it looks like the market was right to expect a slightly bigger build than anticipated. the survey when it came to crude is supposed to be wildly off. we've come to a significant build. the cushing inventory looks like a sizable build. the market wasn't is betting that. not getting much reaction in wti at the moment. the price action not really bouncing around on this, but it does look like we are seeing a significantly great build.
a lot of refineries off-line at the moment. they are beginning to come back online at slowly, but we are seeing a significant number of outages, which continues to increase this issue surrounding the build. let's start you what is happening with european markets right now. trading recently near session lows. we are seeing also selling when it comes to the bond market. you can see yields moving higher in german debt. really an incredible volatile 24 hours for the aussie dollar. all kind of things coming into the mix, including westpac saying it expects the rba to be cutting rates twice this year, a very bold call. vonnie: stocks in the u.s. are still lower, off their lows right now. the s&p 500 down 0.5%. the nasdaq down about 7/10 of 1%. up 7% to 8%.
it is one of the companies that says it is not seeing any issues from the china trade dispute. they produce lithium, among other specialty chemicals and things mined from the ground, and supplies samsung and other people who make mobile phones. that is in line with what caterpillar said yesterday. h&r block is another stock that typically does well around this time of year, up 2.5% today. bloomberg intelligence analysts are saying more people will go to h&r block this year because it is confusing, refunds down 7%, and more people will go to the tax preparer. guy: looks like there's pressure
on both sides of the atlantic. let's talk about the brexit story. there was a rumor earlier this week that we were potentially going to see a breakthrough when it came to the irish backstop, and potentially theresa may could take a deal but to parliament. apparently, coldwater is now being poured on that development. neil mackinnon is level macro btp capital.t what you think the markets have priced right now? guest: i think the markets are starting to price in an increasing possibility of a no deal brexit. surprisings not because the information we are getting from people who seem to be party to any talks that are taking place between the eu and the u.k. actually say that in terms of any of the negotiation's, forget it. the eu is being quite intransigent and saying the withdrawal agreement will remain intact, that it won't be
renegotiated. there's always the possibility of some sort of legal coda so -- thatht be attacked might be attached to the agreement. many in parliament see the eu operating in bad faith. unless the withdrawal agreement has been changed dramatically from what was presented to parliament previously, any plan that will come up for a vote is unlikely to pass. i think the markets, which started off with a very low probability of a no deal brexit, thought that there would be some sort of so-called soft brexit, now starting to think as the clock runs down and as negotiations, if you want to call them that, seem to be going nowhere, that we could actually find ourselves in the u.k. with a no deal brexit. guy: are all the assets you would normally think to go to because they would provide some
degree of safety now overly priced for that outcome, or do using those outcomes, there is still money in those trades? guest: that is a very good question. i think as far as currency traders are concerned, the trading mantra has been no deal brexit equals a lower sterling. but if we look at the price action, this does seem to be an underlying bid for the currency. we had plenty of news flow over the past few months that if we are going to have a sterling crisis or crash, that would have happened. but actually, sterling has held up reasonably well. that doesn't mean to say that we are not going to get some volatility because some players might decide not to trade sterling or stay out until they get a clearer picture. so you could get volatility. there's an element of domestic political uncertainty as well with recent of elements at westminster, so you could get a
lot of spiky action, but you know what? i am not party to groupthink on brexit. i actually think if we do get a no deal brexit, that is not going to be equivalent to economic armageddon. i know that is the consensus, but i don't share that view. i think at some point sterling could go up, and we will have to wait and see. but obviously in terms of risk assessment or the rest of it, i think traders will be quite cautious over the next few weeks. vonnie: neil, is there any incentive for anybody for there to be a crash out? if not, why would they allow it happen? guest: when you say crash out, that is sort of a pejorative and deleting language. guy: well, call it --vonnie: well, call it whatever you want. that is just what we have been using. guest: ok.
i prefer not to use the term crash out because it gives the application, which is the consensus view, part of the groupthink view, that will be economic armageddon. i don't share that view. i actually think that given what the consensus view is, actually a no deal brexit might not be a bad thing. that,w on all of this is for political and economic reasons, we should see here in the u.k. brexit is a positive opportunity and not a negative uncertainty. we've had a few years now -- it seems like that, anyway -- of project fear slowing the economy, which hasn't really come to pass, amazingly. employment is at a record high. we are in better shape than germany, then italy, which is in
recession. the euro zone numbers, particularly the ones we see today, and all the surveys have been pretty bad. i take the view that there are economic advantages to be had, and time will tell. obviously the consensus view is less certain than me about that, but it has to be said that the ftse has held up ok. the gilt market has held up ok, and the currency has held up ok. vonnie: so what you are saying is more that there won't be economic armageddon, but that it might actually be economically better. is that right? guest: absolutely. eu and what leaving the what a no deal brexit allows us to do is set our own trade deals. there's been much talk of a trade deal with the u.s. and perhaps with other countries where we've got faster economic growth rates, better exports opportunities. i take the view that liberation from the eu's story of low
economic growth, high unemployment, high youth unemployment is hardly an economic success story. if it was, we wouldn't be having this discussion. even with all of the brexit uncertainty, so-called, we have youth unemployment the lowest in record for the u.k. same for female unemployment, by the way. also.l unemployment i am not saying the u.k. economy is immune from what is going on, but i think brexit is a different story. guy: where are the trade deals? guest: you don't need a trade deal to trade. guy: no, but we were promised trade deals, and they aren't coming. guest: you were promised by the government, but you don't need a trade deal to trade. the eu's biggest trading partners don't have trade deals. so what the point of a trade deal is is all about terms and conditions. that is up to governments. that is up to exporters to try and do that if they can get
that, and that would be the ideal case if we can get a trade deal with the eu. if not, we continue as before. we construct trade deals. we can look at other areas, faster growing areas. so it is not the end of the world. i think on day one of brexit, i don't think there's going to be a collapse in the economy or in trade. able towe will still be buy mars bars. guy: critical things. guest: critical, obviously. it reminds me a bit of y2k. i have it is stretching the metaphor, but in y2k, day one we did wake up and our video recorders, if you remove are those back in the day -- it is the bestre
comparison. neil mackinnon is going to stay with us. we need to talk about what is happening with the ecb and the federal reserve, as well. vonnie: let's get a check on the first word news. here's courtney donohoe. courtney: china is offering to drastically ramp up the amount of u.s. agricultural goods it buys. as part of a trade deal being negotiated, beijing would be willing to buy an extra $30 billion of farm products. the two sides are said to be discussing memos of understanding covering major points in an agreement. a u.s. coast guard officer will appear in court today after being accused in a terror plot aimed at high-profile democrats and journalists. authorities say he stockpiled weapons in a washington suburb and plotted to kill house speaker nancy pelosi and a handful of democrat senators such as elizabeth warren and cory booker. tv news anchors were also on that list. house democrats will file a resolution tomorrow to block president trump's emergency resolution to build a border
wall. it is likely to pass the democratic controlled house, and may attract enough republicans to pass the senate. however, there is not enough support to override a presidential veto. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. the united states has just hit a record 12 million barrels a day of crude production. that is an incredible turnaround when you think about the history of the american economy's reliance on imported oil. the effect fracking has had on the u.s. economy, absolutely incredible. they dated doesn't show it on your screen right now, but a big milestone for u.s. crude has just been announced. this is bloomberg.
♪ vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." here's abigail doolittle. abigail: a bit of a bearish tone for trading in the u.s. nasdaq, and the nasdaq bio index. the bio index down 1.6%. that is a high-growth sector, and there's a lot of talk that this weakness today could be around trade or weak economic data. yesterday the fomc minutes came out a little more hawkish than some expected. there's no sense whether the fed
has actually paused in hiking rates or whether or not they will resume, plus the runoff into the balance sheet. some expect that to stop by april. in we have the 10 year yield the biggest back up in about three weeks, pressuring stocks perhaps as investors contend with the idea of the bank may not be on a long, dovish pause. if we take a look at a chart in the s&p 500, the white is the s&p 500, the blue the 10 year that we have here the 10 year yield flat over that time, but the expectation the fed is hiking rates, we have the s&p 500 climbing. here's the move back up and rates we had today. a small move down for the s&p 500, but if that continues it really could play out. as theys trading lower were cut to a hold. i dax laboratories down.
we have some big tex selling. that is somewhat worrying -- big tech selling. that is somewhat worrisome. for the nasdaq 100, we are going to see an interesting chart here. and the six-month chart, we see the nasdaq 100 below that 200 a moving average -- 200 day moving average. maybe could have some bearish action ahead for stocks, especially next week. according to kevin kelly of benchmark investments, it is certainly supported by this stock here. investors running into selling pressure. vonnie: thank you very much. we are back with neil mackinnon of vtb capital. i just want to go back to the scenario of a no deal brexit once again. march 29 coming in passing. no extension, either, for continued talks. what happens the very next day when it comes to trade?
can britain get everything it needs into the country, and will other countries be able to deal with british imports? how does that i'll get solved in the immediate term? guest: i think day one, things continue as before, to be perfectly honest. i think that however trade arrangements developed in the medium-term, the fact of the matter is that on day one, the shutters don't go up. we will be able to import materials and all the rest of it, and we will be able to export. i think the notion that somehow the country goes into lockdown is just crazy. i think that going forward, but i think is interesting and what could be beneficial -- and it we areke time -- is that in exporting country. we have been, and we are, a country with a global outlook.
if you see brexit is a positive opportunity rather than a negative uncertainty, sort of necessarily bad for the economy, there are lots of opportunities globally. we know that emerging markets economies are now half of the global economy. global export growth has been in these countries. i think it gives us a tremendous opportunity. i think day one, things go on as before to some degree. remember, while the eu is an important trading partner, and ideally we would like to have a trade deal, we also have an opportunity under brexit to lower import tariffs as well. we can do that under wto guidelines. 60% of our trade is already under the wto, which, by the way, manages world trade. they are not some sort of weird and wonderful body outside of the eu. i think there's lots of opportunities for the economy
it is not exciting, but let me tell you that the european markets have come back. they are flat, but that is a decent recovery. dax is trading higher. london is underperforming. some of the mining stocks are down. and some of the oil and gas stocks are under pressure. and we also have uae under pressure as it says it will have problems with the germany and saudi arabia. the ftse 100 is down. dax is up and auto stocks have had a good day. and the cac 40 absolutely flat. and take a look at stocks we are paying attention to. weaponshas banned exports to saudi arabia. bae, the stock is trading down by 8%. and basically they are saying this could have an impact on their business. and this is another stock worth paying attention to,, ap
moeller. the stock is splitting up. but it came out with a remarkable story today. this is the biggest shipper in the world. and sweet bank worth paying attention to -- swedbank with paying attention to, they are looking at the linkage between don scott and of their bank. that is trading 9% to the downside. what is interesting about the session today, while we have come back, the story today is decent volume. the early selloff was met by descent volume, trading above the 30 day average. so at a price action level, it is unimpressive, but from a volume view it is looking better. vonnie: a lot happening here. we are keeping an eye on the trade talks in washington, the memoranda of understanding being prepared. -- off of0 all f
their lows. and we are seeing some treasury market movement after the -- came out yesterday. so we have some selling and treasuries. yield curve bolo -- below 15 basis points. 57.01,de oil trading at down for a better part of the session so far, but it is off its lows. now, global macro movers. let's see what other stories are out there. the commodity story is a big one. the dollar story, is interesting, trading 2% weaker versus the u.s. dollar. this is mostly on the report that china is stopping taking coal imports into the country from australia. australia has stopped allowing china to use its five g network with huawei.
this happened last year and the anger the chinese, so they are retaliating this year and it had an impact overnight. and we have seen some of the safety currencies traded lower today. -- trade lower today. guy: the australia story is worth paying attention to. we will take a look at the ecb. the ecb officials said in up their meeting in two weeks, the march meeting, as a key meeting to decide if they euro area slowdown is bad enough to warrant some sort of attention. and our colleague joins us. he covers the euro area economy. he joins us now from frankfurt. we have also seen some pmi data
out today. peter, start off with the ecb. we are hearing that a lot of action is being taken to ready the research around another -- but the ecb is taking a calm approach, what can we deduce from this about it being instituted? peter: as you said, we today got the information from the january meeting. and in their words, we need swift analysis but we should not rush with a decision. that is something that was some double well and it seems to be -- was summed up well and it seems to be the message they are repeating. we have heard from council members, laying the groundwork for a potential action. but it is laying out or rolling round is a far more complicated than it would seem at first sight. that is one of the tools that they could use. these are the loans that were issued and they will start rolling or maturing from june of next year. and it is quite a hefty sum,
more than 700 billion euros. and the question for the ecb right now, the question to answer during the analysis, is to what extent this will impact the liquidity in the banking sector, and to what extent this could hurt credit growth in the future. i think that is where the discussions will focus on. vonnie: what will they be waiting for before they make a final decision, are they looking for example to brexit, or are they looking at the italy bank situation? piotr: there are a couple things. as we heard from them, as we could read from the accounts, there is no clear-cut case right now for them to take action. i mean, if you look at the pmi numbers earlier today, of course it says that overall the eurozone is close to stagnation, but this is mainly due to manufacturing. and manufacturing has
contracted. that is bad news for germany. on the other hand, the domestic story, the domestic economy is looking quite strong. as mario draghi likes to point out, the unemployment is falling. employment is growing and it is feeding into stronger wages, also stronger consumer spending. but the question is, to what extent this can keep the economy growing and whether the slowdown we are seeing is temporary, coming from the outside, mainly from tensions in protectionism. whether the domestic economy is strong enough, they do not know, and i guess that is what they want to see in march when they also see the projections. those should give them a better view of the medium term, which is what they are focusing on. guy: thank you. piotr joining us out of frankfurt. now what is happening with the banking story.
the ceo of barclays spoke with us and assess his bank needs -- and says his bank needs consistency in their strategy. >> what i do think barclays needs is consistency. we need to have a stable strategy that people can get behind and drive revenue growth. our bloomberg managing editor for finance. , barclays had a good day today, not only did they come out with their numbers, but you have a major shareholder saying that they do not believe that branson has a case here. >> he did get a lot of ammunition today, he got help from the markets and the trading results at barclays were not as bad as other investment banks. and other banks have posted. so he had a lot of momentum behind him today. and there was him
also comments from him that branson does not necessarily need a seat on the board. and the fact that barclays will not be supportive of that move. is in seems like barclays a stronger position today than it was a few months ago. vonnie: of course, it is the perfect day to say that the bonus is rising for the first time in 20 years. the group incentive of 9%. know, one has to remember though that with brexit looming around the corner there are -- it is very important for the banks to signal strength, whether it is in the form of capital reserves, whether it is in the form of dividends to shareholders and buybacks. you see u.k. banks embarking on these types of shareholder friendly moves, so that they can
reassure the investors and of the market that they are in good shape to whether the turmoil. guy: is a brexit related? -- it brexit related? they are about to go through a bumpy ride. sree: yes, it is not just brexit, but that is the signaling they are giving to the market that they are well prepared to whether any kind of turmoil. guy: sree, thank you very much. our finance editor. an interesting day for banks. and a quick look at where we have seen settlement coming through. a reasonably decent volume day. not much action in the auction. we will check to see where the ftse 100 has traded, it has gone through the five-minute option, a tick o higher. if you are getting into the car,
you can tune into our digital radio, find the bloomberg station and at the top of the hour will be "the cable" show. jon ferro from new york, i will be here in london. a lot of market action to work through. we are still digesting what we learned from the fed today. ecb accounts today. and the trade narrative is never far away. we will talk about all of that at the top of the hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
increasingly difficult to navigate mobile phone sector? joining us is our global executive editor, tom giles. i assume many people will not buy this, but this is a useful marketer and it may reinvigorate a sector that is starting to look a little flat. tom: what we are seeing happening with smartphones globally is a saturation point. everyone who wants a smartphone kind of already has got one, so what these manufacturers like apple, now samsung, need to do is jampacked every new device with as many cool new features as they possibly can, either to get people to re-up their old phones, or switch over from apple. people are just holding onto their phones longer than before. and so the growth in the booming market that had a really good run for a decade has really cold off. we saw that -- cooled off.
we saw that come home to roots for apple in the christmas quarter. and now with samsung, it is coming out with a high-end,a low-end phone, and in the goldilocks area, in the middle. and they will test the market like apple has. there was disappointment with apple and of their high-end device. they price it really high, it really high for the chinese market, so you see competitors in china, which is a critical market with the world's most popul -- populated nation, and you saw people going for locally grown models that are cheaper but have, in the opinion of the consumer, just as many key features as you can get with apple. samsung will now go through that same gauntlet. vonnie: what are the estimates for demand for this device? it appears silicon valley is going away from screen time. we have heard reports that parents there was not let their kids look at screens.
and people are looking for something new. simpson has a great name in phones. tom: that is why samsung has really gone the extra mile with regard to putting features in this. we have three cameras instead of two. we have got -- they made a couple other really key and amendments to their phone and they are really trying to show people that this is something special, that this is something different. but there is growing, as you point out, there is growing concern about how much time people are spending on screens, what they are doing on them, whether it is good use of their time. that is going to vary from place to place. and even the device makers are telling us that this is how much time you spend on your screen. i take a look at that and i sort of challenge myself to say, maybe spend a little bit less time and maybe do something more
useful. guy: tom, thank you very much indeed. if you want to see how the markets have reacted to the story, take a look at supply chain companies that feed into samsung and provide the screen technology. look through the supply chain, there is a great story about this on the bloomberg, you can see some amazing valuation changes around the story. vonnie: lyft filing a public offering with plans to target valuation around $25 billion. eric newcomer, why now? why is now the right time when lyft has been planning this for so long? eric: i think that the impending uber ipo provides the timing. lyft wants to get out ahead of uber. they think people should focus on their metrics, that this
should be the centerpiece of the ipo, and they do not want uber to define those terms. the idea is to come out first and defined the conversation before the larger competitor is on the scene. guy: what do we know about the terms of this potential ipo? eric: the valuation range keeps narrowing. initially, we said $18 billion to $30 billion, now it is looking like $20 billion to $25 billion, so that is the range. lot,e going to learn a hopefully, next week when lyft provides financials and we get into theget to dig company. vonnie: what have we heard from potential shareholders? is there a lot of demand for this stock? eric: you know, it is a small set of investors, many of whom who have already invested on the private market, so it will be an
interesting test case for both companies, where there has been such a run-up. fidelity has been an active investor already in the private markets, and how does that translate to these underwriters buying into the company's and the public markets, how often will they buy into both lyft adn nd uber, as opposed to just pick one theme? there are a lot of -- team? there are a lot of questions about how this will translate from the private to the public markets. and how they think about valuations. it will be a really interesting test case. vonnie: eric newcomer will be all over it for us. it is time for our stock of the hour and it is eight us, shares heading for their best day since may of 2012, up more than 15% after reporting record profit in the fourth quarter. kailey leinz has more. what did they do? >> there are a couple factors leading to this six quarter of revenue growth.
$.53 a share versus the analyst estimate at $.37, so 18% profit growth her for avis. empire that was because of declining fleet cost. and that in part is due to a higher resale value for the cars. but the other key part of this is pricing power, prices rising more than 2% this quarter in the americas and people are paying more at the counter, showing that the supply and demand imbalances we have seen in the rental car market is evening out. they are not having to discount as much. that is also good for hurts -- hertz. they are also up the better part of 10% today. guy: what is the outlook going forward, is a positive? >> it is pretty positive, not overly positive, but guidance is roughly in line with what the analysts expected and revenue growth should be 2% this year. the fourth quarter will be a little bit weaker because of the
effects of some of the partial government shutdown. government travel was reduced in january, rental cars down 53%, so that will come through in the first quarter, however it is looking positive the rest of the year and analysts think the pricing power dynamic could be sustainable, although they are not overly positive, because the other factor was the cost of fleet. they think that could moderate going forward. and there are headwinds when you think about the rise of things like lyft, which we were just discussing, that impacts this industry. avis has partnerships in that space, but will that be enough to really sustain it as those players continue to gain market share. it's a story we will continue to see play out. vonnie: kailey leinz with our stock of the hour. and coming up, it is our global battle of the charts. i will see if i can persuade these two to stick around. this is bloomberg.
vonnie: it is the time you have been waiting for it is time for , our global battle of the charts. you can see these on the bloomberg. we have alix steel. and: you will look at corn soybeans from me. i want to look at if china winds up buying more crop from the u.s., $30 billion more a year. this is where the soybean stocks are staying at. the white line is u.s. soybean stocks, a historical high, and the yellow line is brazilian soybean stocks, at a historical low. when china was not buying u.s. soybeans, they went to brazil and that moved the stocks down to historical lows. does that wind up reversing? if china comes back into the market, how much can they buy, like $60 billion worth of a gg
goods? is that realistic? we will be talking about that on the show today. vonnie: that will be on commodities edge. guy? guy: hedge funds, the shorter volatility just had their best month since 2008. that is interesting in itself, but i want to bring up another story which is related to this, which is that -- has done research about selling in a downturn. theoretically, this sounds counterintuitive, theoretically you would think, 'i want to be low volume because risk rose.' that is not the case -- grows.' that is not the case. short credit funds, the average in the downturns is 6.5%, so you get a huge of performance. the reason for this is people assume you are going to see more volatility and you get the volatility risk premium, people are prepared to pay a higher
price for volatility in a downturn. and with realize the volatility, that does not turn out to be the case. you have the fact that premiums are higher. as a result, shorting vol could be a very good trade. that is what they are saying. and it is interesting, the funds trade,ing back into this as it looks like we are late cycle or beginning to roll over. gtv the chart at dtv -- . vonnie: i think that will give the win to alix today. guy, that was a good one. vonnie: let's make sure we talk about it tomorrow as well, guy. give others a preview of what will be on today, alix. alix: we will talk about corn, soybeans, china trade. what is happening in brazil with the miners. and an interview with the ceo of baker hughes. all coming up at 1:00 p.m. vonnie: excellent.
we were talking about baker hughes earlier with their stocks lower in that industry. coming up in the u.s., "balance of power" with robert jordan, former u.s. ambassador to saudi arabia. that is coming up at the top of the hour. a look at u.s. markets as we head towards the halfway point in the trading day. we are well off our lows with s&p 500 down one third of 1%, as 1%, asdow and -- 1/3 of is the dow and nasdaq. stay tuned, "balance of power" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
on the brief today, reports in progress on u.s.-china trade talks. we talk about 5g technology. it from london, brexit talks down to the wire. we start in washington. we had a report out of bloomberg that actually there will be five memoranda of understanding. what do we know? shawn: we are starting to hear that there is an architecture ability for these talks. we are moving toward a them getting stuffed down on paper, which is important. -- stuff down on paper, which is important. it means the talks are getting more detailed. those will be broken down into five or six areas. they willo told that be talking about subjects from purchases, to intellectual property, to currency come as we reported earlier