tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 25, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EST
european trading day. from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i am 500 this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: generally reasonably well bit. quite a difference between the various markets around the world. europe is up a little bit, trading up but not much, around 0.4%. the mining sector is the real drag today. take a look at china. it is fascinating, the effect this trump tweet has had. it is up 6%. it is a mainland story. it is all the mainland shares that are rising. it is not translating around the world. that is the effect of the positive tweet we got from the president entree. when he was talking about opec, this is the effect he had. he sent oil prices lower by
saint opec needs to relax a little bit. 500ie: in the u.s., the s&p is up 07% -- 0.7%. open, which% at the is a record for ge. it is still a far cry from where it traded a couple years ago. divestment is helping both stocks. the semis are pushing the s&p higher today. guy: we had no deal in the desert over the weekend over the issue of brexit. there was a summit in egypt. the european council president saying delay could be the rational thing today. theresa may saying delay is pointless. leaving on the 29th of march is where all of our
energies should be focused. any delay is a delay. it does not resolve the issue. there is the opportunity to leave with a deal on the 29th of march, and that is what we're going to work on. is delay the most likely outcome? >> that seems to be what everyone believes is going to happen. the question is what kind of delay? long a short delay, a delay that opens the door to all kinds of outcomes? i think theresa may likes to keep this unclear. she likes the fact that nobody knows what she is going to do. that means a lot of the control has been taken out of her hands, and that is the race to the finish between her negotiators in brussels and parliament. vonnie: if there is a long delay, what exactly are there in terms of solutions to the current problems? delay, ire is a long
think it opens up a whole range of possibilities. we will then have a new european parliament coming in in may. we have potentially a new spanish government soon. it is not even clear if they were to delay by 21 months, this incredible unity we have seen by the european union would hold together. it is not clear the existing agreement would be honored. when they say what about a long delay, they are saying how much do you really want brexit? that will put the fear of god and a lot of theresa may's own party. forcing her to replace the backstop nothing else, they will have to decide what they will accept. guy: are those numbers in a position where they are going to find themselves either happy to vote for her deal or except
massive delay? which of those outcomes are the most likely to do? even if the backstop is largely unchanged, the risk is if they vote down the current deal, they may end up with a massive delay and no brexit. >> we will find out more about the options on wednesday when parliament votes on this key amendment that seeks to force may to extend if you cannot get an agreement. there are negotiations going on. there is a process happening in brussels. how materially that changes anything we don't really know. japan's that they will try to -- all sorts of hints that they will try to bring something back to parliament to chew on, some type of assurance that will try to push the eurosceptic wing towards agreement.
i think they will find the prospect of a long delay hard to swallow. vonnie: what is the prospect of there not being a delay, there being a meaningful vote? may is promising a meaningful vote by march 12. march 13 we have the budget statement. -- the planthe seems to be continue the process, present parliament with some kind of modified agreement and hope that goes through. that seems to be her plan. how much control she has is not clear. geoffrey cox, the attorney general, all of a sudden the entire weight of this process is on his shoulders. he is the one that made believes can convince eurosceptics to go
along with the deal if he could secure the additional concessions she is arthur. -- after. will he change his advice? vonnie: let's get to one of our top stories today, barric gold. barric is down 0.9%. withe last hour, she spoke the ceo of barric. guess who she has with us now. >> i have ceo of newmont mirning. remarkably relaxed considering what you're facing this weekend. tell me what your next move is going to be. >> good morning. from our standpoint, we will continue with the gold corp acquisition. we will consider anything from barric in due process we
are going through the process of getting approval, shareholder approval, regulatory approval in the first part of april. beyond that we started and integration process with the team's up there and diving into the value proposition that offers to our shareholders. >> i think you have made it pretty clear what you think of it. zerot to ask about the premium. it is not actually a zero preempt them it is a discount of friday's price. >> they are desperate. 8% reduction from the closing price friday. i'm not sure what they are trying to accomplish. what i have is an opportunity to capture synergy values in neva da. i have had discussions with mark december. recently as
it verya look at briefly in 2014. the team spent high-level review looking at the synergy values over two days. we have never sat down to understand and work with them. you need to get into the details to figure out what can be achieved. mark comepful seeing into the sea that i could come up with something that was constructive for both shareholders in nevada. it was disappointing to see this strange approach that is a negative premium offer and would add a lot of risk to newmont shareholders. >> what is the culture like between the companies? mark briscoe flagged to me the bench strength cc at barric.
he offered that you are retiring from newmont at the end of this year, saying the company is vulnerable because you are stepping away. ofwe have a global portfolio quality people and assets. you look at the team, tom i brought in five years ago. tom palmer, he has been in a position to be running a global portfolio. mark has never run a global portfolio. none of his team has run a global portfolio like we have in place and delivered successful value creation over the last five years. shareholder total return is up 65% since then. barric is down. they had destroyed their shareholder return to the tune of 22%. companies are held heavily by the same people,
blackrock among them. wasont's shareholder critical of john thornton and said it was difficult to work with him. it is hard for me to imagine a situation where you and john thornton could work to get it. has anything changed on that front? >> we have always been open to trying to do something. i was hoping that with mark coming in we would have a already on the other side that got mining and could sit down and work through a logical prospect. what we have seen the last day suggests john is still firmly in control and trying to drive things the way he sees best and was fearful of our joining up with gold cprorp. >> have you had a conversation with ian at gold corp? >> not since this morning. we are still moving forward. we are continuing to move
forward with this transaction. we seek to $.5 billion in value on a $10 billion acquisition. that is more than a 25% rate of return. so you take it to the board. i suppose you could change your barrickd make a bid for with a partner. is that still on the table? >> there are options we can always consider. over the last few years, we could not see the value potential. the risk was not something we wanted to put in front of our shareholders. we decided not to pursue that. i guess every option is on the table as we go forward. >> would you have the firepower to take a run at barrick without a partner? >> at this stage, all options
are open. >> does the proposition changed now that you are on the defensive? >> i don't think we are on the defensive. we are on the offense it. , a movea great position of desperation on their part as they have seen us moving forward. they have only been eight weeks since they started bringing their company together. they have not even started to adjust to what they have bitten off in terms of bringing two companies together. i don't know where they are coming from thinking that they can take on a third piece of complexity. >> the shareholders of the company are going to have to choose between two deals, one of which you offered at a 17% premium and one being offered at a discount. merger inand gold december set up unrealistic expectations? >> i look at the premium we offer as something that more than meets our value requirements. they were at an all-time low.
it was an opportunistic time for us to make that offer. we are going to take that forward. the approval process is in april. >> this is looking like this could be a long drawn out, potentially nasty process. is this going to change your plans to retire at the end of this year? >> i want new month be successful into the future. >> is that a yes? >> i want newmont to be successful into the future. >> thank you. vonnie: fantastic interview, and our thanks. bloombergk in on first word news. >> president trump says oil prices are getting too high. ld opec to he to relax and take it easy. brent crude could rise 12% in the near future.
venezuela's opposition leader juan guaido is in colombia where he will meet with mike pence to discuss ways to outmaneuver maduro. pence announced clear actions to get rid of the venezuelan leader. maduro fired on accidents, killing at least two. in nigeria, supporters of the president and his main challenger claimed early successes in the first general election. by nigerian vote was marked delays, technical glitches, and sporadic violence. four years ago, he became the first ever opposition leader elected to the presidency. the oscars attracted a slightly larger audience this year. 6% from a year
ago. the final numbers show the oscars hitting an all-time low in viewership. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. let's get a quick check of the markets. they have been higher on trade news and individual deal stories. 0.7%. up index is up 5.6%. copper futures are modulating 0.14%.but still up about looking at the nasdaq, it is bouncing higher, primarily on semiconductor stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i am guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check in on those markets. abigail: we are looking at a rally in stocks in the u.s. and globally. bulls really climbing that wall of worry. one of the macro factors being trade. hopes that a deal will be struck between the u.s. and china. the shanghai index is up 5.6%. volatility ahead, but right
now it is going to the buyers. on the natural resource side, copper flat. oil down 3%, at one point on pace for its worst day of the year. opec needstrump says to bring prices down. if we like the look cash take a look -- if we take a look at oil in the bloomberg, since the last all-time high in september, in orange oil, white stocks. oil was the predecessor to the fall in stocks, less liquid risk asset. perhaps giving a tell to investors. today not hugely notable, but if the downtrend does continue, it could pull stocks lower. both asset classes lower since the start of the volatility in the fourth quarter of last year. let's take a look at the financials.
we have bonds trading lower. yields higher. we have the 10-year yield up three basis points. giving a rising tide to the banking sector. a chartke a look at from ge. sincee for its best day 2009. this after the company says it is selling its biofarma company for $21.4 billion in cash, helping the company with its turnaround plan. a real feather in the cap of the ceo, known for this kind of deal making, doing it early on in his tenure. vonnie: thank you for all that. this is bloomberg. ♪
after -- bankruptcy filing after losing a default case. management,capital the telecom countr company. the filing could come as early as this week and even today. you may remember that windstream's fate took a turn for the worst on february 15 when a federal court ruled that a spin off of one of its companies violated financial regulations. there we go. guy: let's pick up and talk about what is happening as we head towards the european close. china certainly getting the best nearly 6% overnight. is on the back of a tweet from the president of the u.s. on
trade. chris joins us now on set. would you fade this rally? we have so much good news on trade, is all the good news in? are we only going to be disappointed when the reality comes through? markets are pretty choppy. they are quite overbought. in the very immediate term, i would be quite cautious. i would not jump on the rally. >> is there a danger that the president is seeking a band-aid, he needs to get a deal done, and he will almost take a deal at any cost? [no audio]
>> one of those mini cycle slowdowns. we are seeing at work through the data. trade and industrial data is very weak. so is u.s. housing. i think it is a good chance we will get towards the middle of the year, and we will see the fed start to get towards cuts. vonnie: what did you make of the john williams comments on friday about inflation not being anywhere near 2%, and the fed getting worried about that? did it make you take notice? >> inflation pressure is coming off. it is not surprising. if you take a look at chinese producer pressure pricing, it is a good indicator of where u.s.
core inflation goes 12 months out. u.s. futures are softening. you expect those comments to come from fed governors as a result. that is a case for the fed building its rate cut case. guy: you are going to stay with us, joining us from longview economics. a quick look at the markets as we head towards the end of play. vonnie: where hanging onto those gains. the nasdaq is up 0.9%. the ftse 100 is barely holding on to boston ground -- positive ground. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
travel. the train narrative over the weekend, it really drove chinese stocks higher but not has -- but it has not had this in effect here. the iberian peninsula is flat. germany as of a little bit. france is up a little bit. there is the ftse 100, 71.83, up by less than 1/10 of 1%. dax is a drag, but trading a little bit better, because the auto sector has responded to better news on the trade front. vw trading a little bit to the upside. the italian markets had a better day today. the reason for that, we did not get a downgrade friday from fitch. as a result, decent reaction into the market, followed on and produced a decent day for the italian banks. that is why we see a performance for the ftse mid in italy. let's take an idea -- get an idea of what is going on. vw is up, that is where it has
been priced in. unicredit is up by 3% on the back of that bcp story, the fitch downgrade not coming to. mining sector coming up. dones down 2%, some others a little bit more, but the mining sector has acted like a drag on the lid of market. quick look at volume. this is indicative of what the broader story is. we have a reasonably light volume day. blue line is the last 30 days, the white line is where we are today. sa you can see, we are off -- as you can see, we are off 10% when it comes to the average volume across europe. deal storyers, a today, but plenty of others including the biofarma or unit of ge being sold. today, 500 is higher along with of course the good news on china's that there will
be an extension. if not something more. and that has the offshore yuan stronger today, 6.6810 it is trading at. and crude oil. president trump took opec to task, saying the world could not handle higher prices. down they go. and after the federal reserve comments on friday, the 10 year yield was 2.68%. now, the global macro movers. let's do it else we can look at. commodities, all lower, not just because of the tweet, but potentially on the china deal. and other industries, the canadian dollar, that is an oil currency and it is lower today. although, the us trillion dollar i -- the australian dollar is higher. that is a lot more volatile. guy: absolutely. it has had a bumpy ride as of late. of market strategy
at longview economics is still with us, chris watling. the ecb really is going to struggle to raise rates. chris: i think it is completely off the table. europeans need to do more liquidity. the banking sector is under pressure, the index has performed poorly this year. and the economy is really weak. the data has come in worse than expected. and italy is a recession, germany is skirting a recession, if not in it. you have to provide liquidity or stimulate in some way. guy: how will the ecb respond? there is speculation we will see more targeted operations to put liquidity into the banking sector, is that now going to happen and do suspect stocks to rise on the back of it? chris: i think it will probably happen, it is a question of when and the ecb getting their ducks in a row.
some chats about march, by do not suspect it will be laterally. that is the reason to think about buying banks for a bounce, but i think we need the yield curve to steepen to have a good reason to buy banks. it hast is interesting, not really steepened as the fed has shifted. and we have seen it flat. i am a great believer that bond yields move lower from here over the next few months, and you should actually sell banks, not by them, despite the possibility -- buy them, despite the possibility of movement from the ecb. vonnie: do you see some trouble brewing? chris: um, plenty of things to why about, there always is. i think the market is probably, well, the equity markets probably pricing in the global slowdown. i think the bond yields need to go lower to support global growth. i am worried about bubbles that may or may not be bursting. a bubble in private equity
globally, it has been the recipient of an enormous amount of money in the last 10 years and valuations are extraordinary amongst companies. and we will see a lot of supply and ipo's next year. i worry about stuff like that. watching the corporate bond yields, watching the prices of companies like that will be interesting. but there are plenty of things to worry about. vonnie: that is fascinating. we know, take we work, if could get a little riskier, would that be a sign that something is about to blow? and if so, can it be in private equity, or will it cause contagion elsewhere? chris: that is the big question, does private equity operate as a stand-alone unit in the world financial markets, or does it have bleed through affects. that is difficult to know.
it is difficult to work out exactly where the channels of contagion are before the event with a bubble, but there is a lot of money in there, and there has been avoidance of public markets and a shift into private markets in this economic cycle. i suspect there are more bleed through affects than we realize. one guy in the u.s. put it like this, 40% of money raised by the private equity guys is spent at google and facebook. there are links, there are plenty of them, and that is a key one. 1.3071, israte, brexit on or off? chris: i think it is going to remain. as soon as parliament arrested control of the process -- guy: has it really? chris: it did 12 or 18 months ago, once theresa may accepted the backstop issue, that put it into parliament hands and there is only one consensus, the no-no
deal. that is what we are seeing playing out now. guy: if that is the case, are u.k. assets cheap? chris: absolutely. guy: on what kind of scale? chris: i think they have a 5% to 50% premium depending on the asset class. -- 15% premium depending on the asset class. this in the last 12 months, you can see it in equities or across the board. the currency could rally to 1.40 over the next few weeks. having said that, it is trade, not investment. the u.k. economy is struggling, as is a lot of the world. vonnie: i am fascinated, what is the timeline, is there nan extension for two years and we will see another referendum or change in leadership -- how do you see it playing out? chris: there are two playbooks. one, theresa may comes back with
something on the backstop. and her deal, the checkers deal, which i call partial remain, it gets through parliament at the last minute, the usual european thing. probably more likely we will end up with an extension to article 50. 21 months is rumored today, maybe three or six months. then a second referendum back to the bridge people, and i think that -- back to the british people, and i think so many people are fed up with it that they will remain. it will be challenging after that, but those are the two playbooks. vonnie: that is not exactly consensus right now, that even if there were to be another referendum, people might still vote to leave, no? chris: the polls have moved a lot in the last six or 12 months, a lot toward remain. i think that people, there are wavering voters who see it as too tricky and are easy to flip-flop from one side to the other. if you look across the polls,
there has been a trend for the last six months back to remain. i think we are running about 57%, something like that. guy: chris, come back very soon. chris watling, chief market status from longview economics. vonnie: first word news. courtney: president trump says he will have a summit with xi jinping when the two countries agree on a new trade deal. he told reporters he is close to getting an agreement. at the same time, he said there is also a chance it one not happen at all. he has delayed the friday deadline to increase tariffs on chinese goods. more than three quarters of business economists predict the u.s. will enter a recession by the end of 2021. meanwhile, the majority of those polled by the national association of business economics still expects the federal reserve to religious rates this year. they also expect tariffs to
reduce gdp. crews looking for the black boxes from the boeing 67 that crashed into a bay in houston. three people were killed. the plane was operated by atlas air. minutes way-- was from landing and when it nosedived into the water. and the chances of a brexit deal being sealed are fading, says daniel --, who is urging the prime minister to request that negotiations be prolonged. >> the situation we are in, an extension would be a solution, but prime minister may still thinks that she is able to avoid this scenario. courtney: she says the delay will not solve anything. she says it is "whithin our grasp -- within our grasp so you euve -- grapssp to leave the
on time." global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you. a remarkably uneventful auction over the last few minutes. we have wrapped up regular trading. we are settling out, this is where we find ourselves. the european markets not changing a good deal. the ftse 100 finishing up just less than 1/10 of 1%. dax with a better day. up 3/10 of 1%. and stocks having a solid session there. if you are getting in the car, tune into "the cable" show taking the airwaves at the top of the, hour you will find it live on digital radio and on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: and in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the "european close." it is time for our stock of the hour, shares of spark more than double today, surging 120% after news that the company could be bought. kailey leinz is here with more. why such a move? >> it is the premium that they are paying for the company, the $4.8 billion price tag, this is more than double where the shares closed on friday and 138% premium, when you look at the 20 day average of the share price. it is a lofty valuation, but that is not unusual in biotech.
the premiums paid summer between 50% over five years, but this has gone of this year, the usual premium is about 68.5%, so this is far above those averages. why pay so much? it is a gene therapy company. ne therapy is complex and treatments can go way up. one treatment he will be getting in the deal is like serna, which treats eye disease, inherited blindness. that treatment alone is $425,000 for one eye. these are very pricey treatments. another thing in the pipeline that roche will be getting is an experimental treatment for hemophilia a, an area he was getting into as they expand outside the cancer business. roche could begetting a lot from this deal. guy: is roche done? >> it does not seem like it. the ceo said that they are
looking to do more deals, perhaps in the gene therapy space, and of course we have seen other players moving to the upside today. uphave eunuch or -- unicruure and other movers. that is completely dwarfed by the move we have seen from spark, up 137%. vonnie: thank you. time for our latest bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest stories right now. gold taking a big step. trading the largest gold producer. the canadian minor at $17.8 billion, an offer for its american rival. the value is at a percent less than friday's close. and earlier, the ceo blasted talks about a takeover as a desperate and bizarre move by barrick. we spoke with both ceos in the
past two hours. and a floating smartphone to challenge the one unveiled by samsung. it unfolds into a tablet like the galaxy fold and it will cost $2600. the market is slowing and manufacturers have been searching for ways to convince consumers to upgrade devices. and that is your business flash. warren buffett is not giving up on kraft heinz. do not expect him to buy any more of the shares, though. we have more on berkshire. what did you take from the annual letter? >> it was kind of interesting. he does not expect a huge deal anytime soon, which is important given he has $112 billion in cash, so he could be doing a large deal, but prices are not reasonable right now. so i think that that is kind of talking about, how else will he spend his money. he spent a lot of the
letter talking about his purchase policy. he normally favors buying businesses or stocks, but he changed that last year by buying back $1.3 billion in shares. and he explained that in his letter. that will help his successor, they can point to the fact that warren buffett himself did buybacks, if they need to. guy: he said he did not by the dip at the back end of last year because he was going to buy a business, do we know what that was or kind of which area he was looking in? catherine -- katherine: he left it a little unclear, but it was an interesting comment. they only spent 39 million dollars, after spending $12.6 billion in the third quarter, so he really cut back. it is a good sign, it means he was looking at something, there is something coming across his desk in terms of a large deal. vonnie: lessons from ibm when he entered, by then exited oracle,
what happened? katherine: that was a unique move. usually he likes to stay in for years. he went in in the third-quarter, got back out in the fourth quarter. he said he thought he knew more about the business, but then he realized he didn't. i think it is like a real telling statement about his ability to view technology companies and tried to predict how they will perform 20 years down the line. vonnie: and how he revises. katherine: i think that was a different perspective. he stuck with ibm for years, so the fact that he goes into oracle they quickly changes his mind could maybe mean he is giving himself more flexibility to test out new ideas and reverse course if he needs to. guy: was that a meal coper on kraft heinz. he said he overpaid. katherine: to be honest, his remarks were a little pessimistic about kraft heinz.
the shares fell to a record low on friday, it could make a good deal to purchase the rest of the stock, but he said he does not want to. the admission that consumer brands are really hard to justify right now, there is so much change in what consumers want, whether tastes are -- what their tastes are, and i think that is telling about his be on kraft heinz in the future. vonnie: ok, thank you. katherine governing berkshire and warren buffett. coming up, the global battle the charts. this is bloomberg.
taylor: i am looking at the odds of a recession. over the weekend, we had a forecast come out from the national association for business economics. 75% of economists now think we will have a u.s. recession by 2021. you have 10% that think this year, 42% next year, 25% think it could happen by 2021. and a way to chart this is i have looked at the u.s. recessions on the new york fed, as measured by the treasury spread. 23, thethe index at highest going back to 2008. it looks concerning, but i would caution that as trade tensions have simmered down, we know the march went tariff deadline will be pushed back a little bit -- march 1 deadline be pushed back a little bit. the 25% would have pushed forward the odds of a recession sooner, so for now it looks like
we could be pushed into that off-again, with 75% thinking 2021. the chart looks scary, but we will have to wait and see. vonnie: we are looking for the inverted yield curve. ok, thank you for that. guy, what do you have? guy: i want to sum up what trade it looks like around the world. this is the correlation between onshore and offshore chinese equity market, csi 300 and the h shares. the correlations are normally kind of like 80. but they have fallen massively. massively, massively. that is where it was a few days ago, that is where it is now. the chinese onshore market responded strongly overnight. we saw that with it up around 6%. and the h shares didn't. we have not seen that going through into the european markets or the u.s. markets either.
china very strongly, the rest of the world not so much. behind whation is is going on from a regulatory point of view. chinese regulators have opened the floodgates when it comes to margin trading. retail investors in china can power back into the market, volume absolutely huge overnight, and chinese authorities are freeing up the chinese equity market onshore. they have had enough of the relay downward trajectory, they are trying to fix it. they are loosening up restrictions and allowing margin trading, as a result the correlation is absolutely collapsing between onshore and offshore over in china. you can find these charts at gtv , 2120. vonnie: you do not need numbers anymore, just type in gtv and they are all laid out. the winner today is guy johnson. we will keep an eye on that correlation. taylor, thank you.
asia and in the u.s., everywhere online, we have "balance of power," with the former fbi director andrew mccabe. tune into that. u.s. markets going toward the midday. 1%, the500 up 6/10 of dow up 7/10 of 1%, deals making those gains happen. and the semiconductor sector is higher. the nasdaq up 9/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
on the brief today, sarah mcgregor on u.s. china trade negotiations going into extra innings. tina davis on oil intervention. and teresa on prime minister may's pursuit of a brexit deal. we will start with sarah. tell us what is going on right now, they have postponed the deadline on friday. president, the postponed the deadline for a deal to be made in order to hold off on tariffs on chinese goods. we do not know how long the extension will last, he said as long as there is progress they will keep talking and he plans to meet president xi jinping at some point to finalize the agreement. donald trump told us that he thinks there has been substantial progress in the talks on the toughest issues, but we have no details on wha