tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg March 6, 2019 4:00am-7:00am EST
francine: the u.s. trade deficit rising by 20% and president trump failing by his own metric. sterling sinks after report talks in brussels and without a deal. and kylie jenner becomes the youngest self-made billionaire. ♪ francine: welcome to bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london. we return to catalysts to what markets will latch onto later on. for the moment, they are focusing on trade and global growth but there is not one
story that will actually give the markets may be the impetus they need. the stocks europe 600 pretty much flatlining. looking at pound, a little bit of disappointed after the talk of brussels did not end up with a deal. negotiators are continuing to discuss that today. 1.3151 is the level for the pound. crude oil at 56.06. stronger than expected in the u.s. coming up, we speak to howard davies, a chairman at the royal bank of scotland. that is coming up at 10 a.m. london time. we will talk about brexit and consolidation in the banking sector in europe. first, let's get to the first word news in new york city. viviana: carlos ghosn has been released on bail after more than 100 days in jail. his lawyers say he will not brief the press today. he was surrounded by police officers. he had been detained since november.
tokyo prosecutors still have the option of three arresting him on new charges. wall street pay limits are reportedly getting a fresh look from regulators appointed by president trump. bloomberg has learned u.s. agencies may brush outpost crisis rules on the back burner. they were meant to curb bonuses that encourage traders to take dangerous risks, like those blame for the 2008 global financial meltdown. theresa may may be on course for another brexit defeat in parliament. the chief whip reportedly warned he is not confident he has the numbers to get her deal through. bank of england governor mark carney says there have been constructed developments in readying for a no deal brexit. >> there has been progress in reducesness and that the level of the economic shock. we do see potential for material shock. what we can do about that is
make sure the financial sector is there to help buffer it. tycoon passing warren buffett as the third richest person in the world. he made $14.5 billion. you now worth $83 billion. kylie jenner has become the youngest self-made billionaire. she is worth just over $1 billion. she owns 90% of kylie cosmetics. global news 24 hours a day and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. i will let you digest the kylie news, especially on your twitter. francine: thank you so much. it was the talk of the newsroom. 21, self-made billionaire, the first time we have had such a young person. the makeup is not bad. we will talk about that later thebut data released today
u.s. trade deficit has topped $600 billion. this trade shortfall is the main metric president trump measures countries on winning or losing. it means on his two years in office, it would have grown by more than $100 billion. joining us is the head of affect strategy. we will get to john and a second. first of all, let's focus on what you were expecting to hear from president trump. does this move the dial in any way in what we know what he is focusing on and what he wants the dollar to do? jane: even rather have the dollar suffer because you things that would lead to greater u.s. exports and help u.s. manufacturing sectors. i think that is the simple message we have heard from trump. we know from or years, it has been for a strong dollar. we heard president trump say yes, we want a strong dollar. over the weekend, not a dollar that make it prohibited for u.s. countries.
you try to balance this with the official policy but ultimately he is wary about a stronger dollar but the dollar is strong because perhaps of the fiscal stimulus and the impact that had on the u.s. economy and the impact that has on fed policy. francine: give me a sense of what you think the markets will latch onto? what are the catalysts on trade and monetary policy? is it all about the fed or will a trade deal with china actually help? john: trump can speak all he wants to, but the market is squarely focused on the fed. manufacturing, this is a historically high reading. an economy coming for a crash landing exactly. the market is so turnaround on his expectation for the fed, it may have overreached oa bit. i think the outlook is somewhat productive on the dollar.
absorbing ongoing qt, dollar liquidity. i don't see what will help this process, for now in the near-term at least. francine: does anything that the president to or say about the fed actually sway their policy? jane: theoretically, it could. it is unusual to have a u.s. president or any president saying about his central bank when he has been saying. when he was commenting about the dollar and the fed over the weekend, there were press reports that suggested the dollar did move a little bit in asian hours. it is far too early to say there was a credibility issue. i think the markets do have faith when the fed moves it is because what they believe what will happen in terms of inflation targets. i don't think there is a credibility issue, but it is unusual to have a u.s. president talking in this way about the federal reserve. , wecine: today on our blog
are asking this question -- what are the lead indicators to watch for the next bear market in the s&p 500? look for the slowing down of the u.s. economy. some sensitivity, some indicators coming off but all of these coincide indicators are the key ones that will drive that policy, and that for the dollar. average hourly earnings. they are lagging but feet into policy more effectively. think i looking at two things -- economy and financial markets. execute this huge vivid that we saw at the beginning of the year. they are looking at high-yield cratering equity market. all of those are pointing very far to the south. they took a step back. we have all of these reversing again. i think these are the indicators we look for. unfortunately, lagging
indicators carry a bit too much weight in terms of the policy mix. francine: do you expect the fed to possibly cut in 2020? looks unlikely, although the markets are kind of playing around with the idea they cut this year, but how that would 2020 be? is thenother indicator yield curve, inversion of the yield curve to revert. that is something the market and the fed are looking at closely. i think it will be quite clear over the next six to eight months if the fed hikes too much, too fast or not. we certainly see risks they may have done. if they have done, that means they could cut into the second half of next year. over the next six months, that you will either be proved right or wrong. francine: jane foley, thank you so much. john hardy. both stay with us. no progress in brussels as talks end without a deal but negotiations are ongoing.
francine: economics, finance, politics -- this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash in new york city. viviana: china is putting high tech on the menu to tackle the slowdown in the world's biggest consumer market. it is introducing a.i. and robotics to position fun, tech driven brands aimed at the young middle-class. young china is looking to open up two dollars today for 11,000 restaurants. >> we are already in 1200 cities
in china. that seems a lot, but the organization, growth in china means that are still another 1000 cities in china that do not have any kfc. aeon considering a combination with willis towers. it could be the industry largest ever merger. bloomberg understands aeon is preparing to submit a bid in recent weeks. aggressively merging to diversify. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. theresa may has reportedly been told the brexit vote next week will be tight. sources say her chief whip has warned the cabinet he is not confident the bill will pass the comments. she sent a team to brussels for more talks, but we are told the government is not expecting a breakthrough. a new warning of a new deal brexit. bmw says it could threaten production in the u.k.
still with us is john hardy and jane foley. jane, let's start with the currency that is taking volatility. sterling was up a bit, today a little subdued. jane: i think the market has a bias towards pricing in a soft deal. if we look at the referendum, positioned for voting and we clearly did not get that. if you look at the consensus put out by most banks and forecasters for months, it has been we will get that soft deal. we will get a trade deal with europe after that. again, if we look at sterling's performance this year, it is the best-performing currency this year,'s early over the last week. the market has a tendency to look on the bright side. if we were to get a hard brexit perhaps of the end of a short delay, sterling is certainly not position for that. betcine: is it a misplaced
we are hearing noise? from parliament. is in the market mistaking or is it right to price that and? jane: it is understandable because the electorate does not want a no deal. the parliament does not and europe does not either. legally, that is the route that we are currently positioned on. we are facing a hard brexit unless some sort of change in law goes through really quite soon. the next week will be really key. until marchnt has 14 to vote for a delay. this is assuming her deal does not get passed on the 12th. the market has a tendency to celebrate a delay and will put sterling on the back of the assumption there will be a delay. as theresa may pointed out, a delay could be -- a cliff edge could be steeper by then. a hard brexit is still a scenario that is feasible and the market will have to judge
over the next few weeks, whether or not that is the path more likely. francine: we are getting some breaking news so let me jump in. this is rbs talking about money laundering. rbs is looking into reports of money laundering, but we also heard they cannot comment further on specific transactions. we will be speaking to the rbs chairman in about 45 minutes from now. when you look at what is going on in the markets, let's go back to brexit. we will have to deal with brexit. let's get back to john hardy, head of fx strategy at saxo bank. when you look at brexit, what do you think is priced into equity markets in europe and elsewhere? john: i don't know what is priced into equity markets, but i could provide counterpoint on the soft deal. maybe we get a delay and that delay becomes more extended. i think the no deal scenario should be priced out there really.
likely if we don't get this soft deal passed, we could be looking at a more significant delay and eventually a second referendum. after all, the soft brexit deal either satisfies the remainders who want to remain, nor doesn't satisfy those who want brexit than one a no deal. i think the odds are little in favor of the soft brexit panning out. johnfrancine: what if it is nota soft brexit? a harder brexit or no deal brexit, what happens the european stocks? is anything being priced in or are people ignoring that that maybe there is a belief that things will be on the softer side? john: i think the market is mostly priced on a no deal risk, may be reluctant to fully get on board with a pound rally. judging from the hesitancy. i don't think that no deal is
priced. it would be a considerable shock because of the recent intent you have seen in avoiding this no deal scenario. i do see the no deal with low lots. i see the delay with higher odds. delay, in other words, coming out of next week's process. francine: if the theresa may deal gets voted down next week, we understand the vote will happen by march 12, what happens to the pound the next day? do they assume it is a soft brexit, a delay, or second referendum, or do you think the odds are changing? jane: i think it is a partial delay is the consensus. the likelihood of theresa may's deal passing through has been far uncertain. it would be a disappointment, yes, but not a huge shock. the market would focus on the vote on the delay which is expected by march 14. the market is assuming that mp's
would vote for a delay rather than a hard brexit because that is what they indicated. then we would move perhaps towards when is this delay going to be? it is going to be june potentially. although that is what the markets anticipate, a delay is better than a hard brexit, it is still a disappointed in so far they cannot be any particular change between the negotiations between the u.k. and europe. what happens that? the probability to a hard brexit increases, does the sterling go down? it is really important to watch the political outcomes in the next few weeks. francine: talk to me about china. we saw them trading, lowering the targets to 6.5% for gdp. does that change your view on the markets? john: not really. i think we are all looking for the outcome of the u.s.-china negotiations. this is awfully consensus stuff.
we get some nice dramatic headlines for the underlying relationship. i think china is playing a waiting game. it will keep its currency locked in a range, waiting for further progress. see the market outcome being frustratingly lacking because china will continue to maintain currency. i don't see anything significant strengthening, as currencies are egregiously overvalued. so, there you have it. think the outcome will be disappointed in the long-term and we're price for relatively positive series of headlines, which means if we don't get that, the market risk is for more negative outcome. francine: john hardy, thank you so much. jane foley will stay with us. next, a self-made billionaire
billion, assuming she owns over 90% of her operation. she founded kyl because medics in 2015 and reported a 9% revenue increase last year, to $360 million. joining us is annmarie hordern. this is actually quite amazing, 21 years old, you become the youngest self-made billionaire. this is not from inheritance, getting married to someone. what did she actually do, beauty products? annmarie: it started with kylie's lip kit. that is one of the things she was insecure about, her lips. you can see the star power of using a celebrity like kylie jenner. their share price rose to 14% after this deal was announced. we have seen other celebrities do this as well. rihanna and how that meant for lvma. francine: what is ulta? viviana: it is kind of like
sephora. they sell products that are little more cheaper. we don't have any in the u.k., but it is huge in america. this was the first time her customers were actually able to go into a store and buy her products.everything else was done through online sales. francine: the revlons of this world and the older makeup brands are not doing great, generations that are buying these news once. viviana: it is a cult following. these cult brands, they have these mass following. and part of it is because many people are saying issue really self-made? she made this company but was able to do that and growing because of her platform. she has like 120 million instagram followers. francine: being a kardashian. viviana: to use the power of her family to grow this business. the other person who have this title, mark zuckerberg, who created facebook.
francine: now an oldie. at least 30. viviana: the other two youngsters on this list are in their 20's and the founders of snapchat and stripe. she is the only one who was a makeup mogul. francine: up next, we speak to one of the candidates for the parliamentary elections. the conversations coming up next. spain actually goes to the votes on april 28. meantime, we are looking at brexit, some of these locations for the markets and trade. this is bloomberg. ♪ want more from your entertainment experience?
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seven of the top 10 most polluted cities on the globe are in india. this is according to a new study. isbloomberg.com, dirty money europe's resistance to joint -- we're talking about money laundering. made aw one investor $211 million emerging-market bet on etf's. is terraced mantra set to --ent over a $100 billion president trump set to preside gap?a $100 billion tradeg gohn has beens released on bail. he had been detained since november.
prosecutors still have the option of requesting him on new charges. his lawyer said he won't brief the press today. to be released today may show the u.s. trade deficit with the rest of the world has topped $600 billion. this traded shortfall is the main metric by which president trump judges countries to be winning or losing. it would be during his two years in office, it will have grown by more than $100 billion. wall street is nearing a fixed coastal cleanup with the shadiest corners in finance -- the $8 trillion cbs market. .- ctf market. north korea is reportedly restoring facilities at its long-range missile site. that comes from a south korean newspaper. dismantledthe regime
the site as steps towards disarmament. john bolton warning north korea must give up its nuclear weapons or face tougher penalties. hard-liners in the german government are reportedly fighting to keep huawei out of five g network. -- 5g network. it has become a lightning rod for tensions between the u.s. and europe. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. spain had to the polls on april 24 a snap election after the nation's budget was rejected parliament last month. the balance will be followed by european parliament elections. collision talks to drag on adding another layer of complexity to spanish politics. joining us now is a european
election candidate. jane is also still with us. give us a sense on whether you will roll out doing a coalition with anyone, or are all options open up woman? -- at the moment. into theheading elections not going in with the socialist party. francine: what about the nationalists? polls are sending you could end up having an agreement with the nationalists, but then you also believe you are a liberal. how would that work? wes: that is also something will certainly rule out. francine: what is your biggest hope for spain right now?
what kind of party can bring people together? spain is a fractured one and this has a lot to do with catalonia. a real big has had crisis over the last year and a 2017.ver the fall of took a loss of the past that was quick to be superior to the spanish constitution. then decided to ignore requests and go forward with independence that actually fractured spain. i -- for spain that has been the biggest crisis in 40 years. francine: how do you want to
heal the wounds that happened --h catalonia in 2017 you 2017? luis: we will remake of a request to the catalan government to commit to implement all rules of the spanish constitutional court. certainly if they are not that will be that, the only alternative. i hope they will do as they should and implement the rule of law. francine: how do you feel the country? it's difficult to bring people together. how difficult is it to unite the country right now? needsi think the country a period of tranquility. of stopping all this escalating
conflict, and i think it needs the rule of law. most of the leadership comes from catalonia. most of the leadership speaks cap . alan.ttl well-positioned to actually understand that side of the divide and unite the country. francine: what does this all mean for how you view spain in the european context? it could move bond deals. jane: it could. i think investors would have a similar view in that it would like spain to have -- hearing more about catalonia, hearing the opposite of unity.
concern of investors . we are talking about fracture politics and perhaps the end of the usual left/right coalitions. we're talking about different forces. we have the european parliamentary elections. the market is concerned populous demand greater percentage of the votes, worried about what that would do to the european commission and budgets over the next year or so. there are lots for investors to be concerned about in terms of politics. luis: the european parliament elections coming up in may. from the liberal side to the party site, we are taking a very strong position on nationalist and populist movements. we think they are structuring -- fracturing spain and europe.
it is a key moment for the forces of the center of europe, the liberals, the left of center, the right of center to unite together and say, we need to stop this for the whole of europe comes to a halt. not only that, but we could be at risk of losing our do whatif the populists they need to do. i think those european parliament elections are probably the most important whatever. will be the first economic reform you would put in place? education in spain is a problem. there is a very high dropout rate. there's a problem with our investors, which are not world-class. most of what makes economics grow isgrowth -- and education.
francine: first, i guess you have to be market friendly or not. we have been very concerned that many sectors and spain have been getting monopolized overtime. spain many years ago try to monopolize the utilities. i think that drive me too much concentration. there's too much market power. think making sure that constant dense concentration actually works. that is a priority in terms of market reform. francine: how much do you worry about italy instead of spain?
jane: a lot if you are trying to sell europe to an investor now, i think you have two predominant concerns and the first elect -- is economic. you do have the politics of relying that. i think europe right now is very easy place for investments. francine: thank you both for joining us. coming up, the fitness business is booming. we speak to the chief executive of the global fitness equipment maker next. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. ing's moscow branch has now been implicated in the growing dirty money scandal. reports that the bank was aware of potential laundering by one of its clients. these allegations coming months after ing paid and over $8 million fine related to the crime. plunging after it said it will meet its 2020 targets. the ceo speaking to bloomberg. >> the auto environment will remain turbulent. we are cautious with our outlook, and we see that there is one visibility.
that is also the reason why we said we're going to skip the 2020 targets. we will address this again and come back when we have revisited all of the long-term plans. viviana: general electric tumbling the most in three months after its new bosses warned of additional problems that the ailing company. this year cash flow from the industrial operations will be negative. that is a sharp drop from 2018 when the maker of turbo engines brought in $4.5 billion. francine: let's turn to the booming fitness industry. is an italian company that sells equipment. it has grown into a public company with just over a 2 billion euro market cap.
the company's success reflects the world's healthy living economy. cycling studios, give the classes are an and inescapable part of modern life. the industry is now a $2.2 trillion business. as more fitness businesses try to grab market share, how does technogym stand out? we are to be joined by the chief executive and founder. we had your share price up, it is quite a success story. how much more can grow? >> first of all, it is the innovation. that is the real priority of technogym. we believe in innovation in terms of solution and experience. talk to me a little about service.
you just launch something were basically i'm exercising and doing my pops and -- pumps and pulls. instead of going to the class i have someone online telling me what to do. >> today, we have more or less and00 clubs and equipment millions of people who use it everyday. we created a platform. .e engage people at home the club and fitness beauty operators. today, we have the possibility to spread at home, the content, online, in classes. francine: how much bigger can technogym actually be? i imagine selling equipment to
whom? is there a region you want to be more present in? nerio: yes. it means to create the brand in terms of experience, to create the journey, the wellness lifestyle journey. programming, tracking and coaching. andy, we have the ecosystem platform and content like training programs, classes, cycling, aerobic classes. we have the possibility to spread at home through their online streaming activities. francine: at home, is it europe or the u.s. market? are you trying to grab a lot more market share in asia? nerio: step-by-step because we started in italy and europe, but
we select the best clubs around the world. netflix and itunes. we create and engage the different content in classes, the best trainers, the celebrity classes. andray the platform possibility to engage people at hotel.t work in the how much more you expecting the industry to grow? gyms.e involved in there is definitely a trend toward this industry growing significantly. nerio: we have many different business drivers. hotels, hospitality and new segment.
close it in a studios are still growing, but the real potential goes to consumers. francine: like a gym at home? nerio: exactly. we have the possibility to reach 30% of the total amount of technogym revenue. francine: what an amazing story. next, out on -- up bail carlos gohn out of jail. this is bloomberg. ♪
on a case like this, the prosecutor brings the suspect into jail. the point of keeping him there is to elicit a confession because the perception is that what the evidence is presented, that would be the natural response. gohn did not respond to that we had all. in fact, he issued a statement declaring his complete innocence and vowing to fight the charges. that seems to be was quick to take place here. they also suggest that they had perhaps run out of new allegations. for week after week and even month after month, there was stripped drip of new allegations about misdeeds. we can expect now that they will focus on the indictment itself and what he is been alleged to do and that the case will now
focus there as well. francine: exactly what do we know about his legal strategy? he also has a new set of lawyers because he didn't think the old ones were aggressive enough. is that right? >> yes. a lot of observers are crediting the new legal team with having success in getting bail. this is the third time you apply for bail. they had success this time and part of that is based on the additional pressure that his new team has put on it. another thing the new team has done is they sought to draw attention to nissan's role in presenting these allegations and the way they were presented to the prosecutor. we don't know yet how this strategy is what to develop. there isample would be a narrative that nissan plotted to get rid of him because it did not want to merge with renault. in order to do that, they felt like sidelining gohn would
somehow help the. that attractive there has a lot of story behind it, but at the same time, that may be very hard to prove in court. this case could go another way which would be the gohn seems to focus much more narrowly on wereer the transactions illegal or legal in this and how those transactions were recorded and carried out and whether that was a violation of law or not. francine: thank you so much. coming up next, tom keene joins me out of new york. we will be talking to the rbs chairman. ♪
data is expected to show the u.s. trade deficit rising by 20%. progress. sterling sinks after a report that brexit talks in brussels ended without a deal. billionaire at 21. kylie jenner becomes the youngest self-made person to reach the milestone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. we are also getting breaking news out of the otb cutting their global forecast for 2019 globally.to 3.3% this is important as we look at monetary policy. tom: the extraordinary set of interviews we had yesterday on "bloombergs all of surveillance" was china falling right into that global slowdown. francine: and of course them changing their gdp forecasts.
gohn walking out of jail today after 108 days behind bars. the former nissan chairman posted $8.9 million in bail. it's one of the highest amounts ever in japan. freedom look at him a chance to work closer with his defense lawyers on the allegations of financial misconduct. prosecutors could still try to extend his detention. per theresa may risks another defeat in parliament over the revised brexit deal. the chief whip saying he is not confident with the numbers. president trump is about to become the $100 billion man when it comes to trade deficit. data being released today may show last year, the u.s. trade deficit went over $600 billion. that is the deficit has climbed $100 billion since just before he took office.
the president uses the trade deficit to judge whether countries are winning or losing. economists don't tend to focus on this. wall street pay limits are expected to get a fresh look from regulators. bloomberg has learned u.s. agencies may dust off roles that have long been on the back burner. the rules were meant to curve bonuses. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. features at negative five. the euro is important. stronger dollar over the last couple of days. the euro near 1.12. next screen. the 615.1%.
yields come in at 3.11. even the two-year should be right on the screen. lower.ld, two years i will let you talk about brexit sterling. francine: looking at brexit sterling. i'm looking at theresa may in for another bruising vote on parliament on brexit. i'm also looking at health moving sideways at the moment. -- pound moving sideways at the moment. are expectingors or hoping for fresh catalysts on trade and monetary policy. also looking at oil. we are on the same page. theresa may has reportedly been told that the brexit vote next week will be tight. sources say her chief with --sword the that he is not chief whip has warned the
cabinet that he is not expecting it to pass. we are joined by howard davies. as always, thank you so much for coming up bloomberg surveillance. is the city ready? we heard a number of initiatives from the bank of england to get something on derivatives. is the central bank ready to act in case of all brexit scenarios? howard: there has been a lot of activity recently in terms of continuity contracts and ensuring that derivatives can still be cleared. people in member states to have people to continue to clear derivatives. there is quite a lot of activity on the plumbing. yesterday, the bank of england announced the euro-sterling swap facility. for a bank like ours, we have not been banking on.
with the reconfiguring our system. and i think most big firms have so that we are robust in the event of even a no deal brexit. i would say most big firms in the city are in a position now and probably won't change whatever happens that. basically, are you saying that a lot of jobs moved to europe in expectation of a possible no deal brexit because this is what regulators are asking? howard: quite a lot would be an exaggeration depending on how you define a lot on bloomberg. i think what people have found over the last 2.5 years is that the arrangements for post-brexit are not going to be as favorable as any people hoped. the maximum we will get his equivalents in some areas, but we will not get that probably in banking and things like that. on the one hand, the prognosis is worse. on the other hand, folks have found it difficult to move people. people have wanted to move.
international schools in frankfurt would be a good thing to invest in. what people are doing is putting the minimum they need in order to become operational, in overtime, i would expect that to grow because over time, i enacted that the european regulators will say, we asked you to put a brass plate on a lawyer and risk manager here, but actually, we want a more substantial operation. i think that this will be a slow migration rather than a one-way ticket to frankfurt. tom: i want to go to 60,000 feet with you. in the last 24 hours, we have had interviews. i need to calm down with good howard davies economics. should we be looking at brexit from a macro larger view of aggregate supply, aggregate demand? or does howard davies take down
to macro theory, the many decisions that are made each way along whatever the path is of that. tword: i don't think the approaches are mutually compatible. my own view would be that you should really focus on the impact of leaving a large free trade block. whatever we might say about wanting free trade with the rest , is in fact we are the largest free trade block there is, that is likely over time to have a bad effect on competition and competitiveness. overtime, the trade intensity of the economy will probably fall somewhat and the pay economy will grow somewhat less rapidly than it otherwise would have done. almost think that our economy
will grow less quickly if we leave the eu. tom: we will continue. with you want to make note of a physician of the house of commons speaking right now. fox speaking right now. there he is speaking no doubt on trade and a little bit on brexit as well. you mentioned international schools in frankfurt. anybody in the racket no set there should be no surprise here, but there need to the other constraints to people leaving london going someplace else. give us an idea of what those are. our their wage constraints? language constraints? rd: i don't honestly think there are many language constraints. people tend not to note that the working language of the european central bank is english. the working language of the french stock exchange is english.
it's more just the disruption of moving values. careerople have got two people. i think it is all this practical issues that are really difficult. i think you are going to find quite a lot of people commuting in the short-term. that will take a while for them to reorganize the life. it will happen. francine: i want to focus in on the banks. does europe have a money laundering problem? there are certainly quite a lot of interesting episodes which point to a problem. i would say that many of these are somewhat dated. they are quite old. there has been a major effort over the last few years to strengthen financial control. there is huge investment going on in our bank in improving ability to onboard clients that make no yield customer checks,
etc. it is interesting that a lot of the cases we are seeing date from about 10 years ago when perhaps the controls were not as good as they are today. i think we have been a huge amount of reengineering in the system, but it looks like there are still some legacy issues. that are going to cost some reputational damage we heard from ubs that you are looking into allegations of money laundering. can you tell us anymore? howard: the allegation we discovered yesterday -- so my state of knowledge of this is not deep -- was that some of the money connected to this russian b amrowent through an a entity, a business which has been closed down subsequently. that makes it quite difficult to know whether this was before we bought it or after we bought it.
francine: do we have is concerned because there is a regulator for this country. we don't have another view of this? howard: i think of us and people are drawing in the eu, perhaps not relevant to us is that more centralized standardized systems probably makes sense in the eurozone. i suspect within three or four years there will be a eurozone anti-money laundering regulator. at the moment, there is something called the financial action tough horse faced at the oecd. and i -- i wonder people aren't what to look at that. francine: howard stays with us. we will be looking forward to our conversation with the leader of the pay liberal democratic party at 5:30 a.m. in new york.
royal bank of scotland also was looking at reports of money laundering. according to another dutch report, money from russia was moved through accounts at abn amro, that later became part of rbs. group --nancial more than a year ago, mizuho setting out a plan to eliminate jobs. theear-old kylie jenner, half-sister of kim kardashian made it onto the list after her cosmetics company signed a partnership with ultra beauty -- ulta beauty. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much.
soon inheritance -- in the harrod's beauty counter, sir howard davies. what is not in the economic throughs -- i hope francine get through mr. micron's -- macron's eu guy. is there an ambiguity of weaker economic growth, or is something else going on with eu disinflation? i think it's more deflation than disinflation. disinflation i would normally think of as meaning and move from one level of inflation to another. deflation meaning prices actually falling.i the fear remains of prices falling in the eu. unfortunately, it does appear that the level of real interest
rates that is consistent with trend economic growth appears to have gone down quite a lot. the central banks are sort of bouncing around the zero bound interest rates, which is a difficult place to be in makes controlling monetary conditions quite hard because you can't do much of interest rates and therefore you are working on using one or another. we don't have a very good handle on how this works in spite of a number of years of experience of it. i think what is really worrying is that we are going into another downturn with interest rates still extremely low. the central banks have very little of the kind of ammunition that they know works. the only ammunition they have got his ammunition they are not quite sure of the impact of, which would be more positive easing. i do think it is a rather worrying position, and it is
very unfortunate that we didn't get interest rates up higher during the upswing, which we have in the last couple of years. soncine: where economists good at predicting recessions? howard: they predict more than what we have. unfortunately, it is very sad electionimf did the site recently which showed that the record of predicting recessions have been remarkably poor. i think one of the problems is that the official sector forecasters are inherently nervous. about producing self-leveling prophecies. the bank of england came out today and said we think the economy is plunging into recession. we would be certain it was at that point. i think there is always a nervousness in the official projections of being careful what you wish for. francine: are we to nervous about china, and should we worry
about something else? howard: i do believe that the chinese growth rate is falling. i think that has been a will forecast change. most people did say, when china was growing at 10% or 11% a year can this really go on? i think a growth rate of 5% or 6% is a much more sustainable growth rate for china. i would be surprised if too many people were really caught out by that. the second question in china is debt. is chinese growth rate excessively fueled by rate of debt? and year or so ago, i think that was a genuine fear. theink in the last year, chinese have tightened the screws a little bit and have actually reduced the growth rate of debt. i'm less worried about china that i was 12 months ago. tom: i want to commend you.
she speaks french. tom keene in new york, i don't. you speak like eight other languages. only you can bring in sir howard on.ies on mr. macr francine: it is legit. you speak italian. i know you have studied it. let's go back to sir howard davies, the chairman of ubs. you are a great student of france. is he getting it right? howard: i teach at the political science school in paris. slightly to people surprise, he has attempted a listening exercise, which is often a rhetorical device. is listening campaign is seeming to have some impact.he is going around the country talking to groups of mares.
it is having an impact on his poll ratings. i think he is actually addressing the problems as far as you can. the difficulty he has got is that the opposition is very in morpheus. these yellow vests people, some of them are just complaining about diesel prices, some of them are anarchists. it is a very complicated mishmash of people to deal with, and there isn't much in the way of focused opposition. the opposition is not there to focus the concerns. in a way, that has turned out to be a disadvantage for him. tom: and has been a disadvantage for mr. macron, but we are looking for leadership. why isn't it coming from germany? howard: think part of it has got to be personal. personal toess
german politics then french. angela merkel's long goodbye means that there is not the leadership there was. she is no longer chancellor. i think that there is no longer the problem -- i don't think the germans really perceive a lot of the problems in europe that other people perceive. germany has done fine. unemployment is low, the economy has grown. what is the issue? francine: thank you so much. coming up next, we go back to brexit. to talk to vince cable. this is bloomberg. ♪
behind bars, carlos ghosn is free. the former nissan chairman was released after posting a fine -- a $.9 million in bail. he was arrested over allegations of financial misconduct. he could still end up in jail. is -- of its long-range missile fight. last year, kim jong-un dismantled the site. nuclear --between kim jong-un and president trump broke up without any agreement. prosecutors working for mother telling a federal judgment for refused to accept responsibility for his crimes. manafort raising up to 24 years in prison. he was convicted of tax fraud and failing to disclose offshore accounts. bloombergor michael
will not be running for president. the owner of the parent of bloomberg news says he believes he could be president trump in the general election but he is clear i about how difficult it would be to win the immigrant nomination. bloomberg plans to spend the next two years addressing gun the country help transition to renewable energy. one of donald trump's closest allies says he should have a new role model. the president says lindsey graham should look to bill clinton. lindsey graham was one of the prosecutors in those hearings. global news 24 hours a day, on-air at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. you.ine: thank we are hearing from the trade secretary.
we are answering questions in parliament. vote on thed he may new deal brexit. we heard a no deal brexit would be better than theresa may's current deal. theresa may has been told it could be difficult to have enough votes to push her deal through. there were negotiations in brussels. it did not end up with anything but negotiations are ongoing. i am delighted to be joined by the later of the u.k. liberal democratic party. mr. cable, thank you for joining us. we are going to have a conversation about how you see the u.k. and brexit going. does theresa may have enough votes to get her deal through parliament and what happens if she does not? >> she does not at the moment. she has a massive deficit to make up. around conservative
hardliners and democratic unionist, many will reverse direction for the reason they see a high risk of no brexit at all, of having a referendum. their fear of that is they are getting behind the governments we'll even though it is from their point of view inadequate. francine: will the eu give theresa may something? is there something at the margin that would push parliament to vote for that deal? some conservatives, they are obsessed with the irish backstop which locks written into a long-term relationship with the e.u.. if they are looking for some form of words which enables them to believe they have solved that problem. people on the other side, their arleigh burke people being pulled behind the government brexit deal because they have constituencies which are pro-dex it -- pre-brexit.
brexit. i am a strong remainder and i believe we should have the people's vote. i am optimistic and outcome as possible. democrat, iberal iain you to comment on duncan smith's comment yesterday on his optimism of a new reformation. where is the new reformation the brexiteers see? vince: that is jargon. what they are talking about is there is a mood populism, you know, trump in america. through the world we have these movements and brexit in a way is the british manifestation of that.
they are not going to get what they want. mr. duncan smith is one of the hard-liners who wants a clean break with europe. that is not going to happen. the british parliament is moderate. we are going to finish up either remaining in the european union or some messy compromise which keeps many elements of integration -- they are not going to get a few her brexit. just pure brexit. tom: does the messy compromise happen sooner or later? timeline vince cable of the remaining resolution? vince: it is unlikely to be resolved next week. ruling high noon where we have a major crisis resulting does and it is put off . what will happen is next week, parliament will almost certainly decide to cancel, take off the .able the option of no deal
the prime minister will not give her deal the first time asking. she may be looking at probabilities. and the option of going to the country with a referendum where she has a 50-50 chance of winning makes them more attractive than pushing this through parliament. within the next few weeks we may be heading in that direction. francine: i do not see how the citizens of the u.k. will take it. will do not feel cheated if they voted for brexit? how do you put limits? last time the people voted 52-48 to leave the u.k. -- to leave the eu. do you have a referendum? vince: some people feel cheated. there is going to be anger. the public mood in britain is not good. there is real polarization on both sides.
the current mood your own polls suggest, that two thirds probability have been one to remain. it is almost three years ago. the world changed. the threats from russia, the emergence of trump, who did not exist at that stage. europe has a role which was not understood at that time. many things people were promised, big cash rebate from -- brexit, all these things look widely implausible. if -- we have to go into it on loses,is that if my side we accepted in similar the other side. francine: what if you win by a razor thin majority? vince: that is the problem with referendums. vote, a have a second people's vote, both sides are
going to have to accept the result. ae point is we try to rebuild consensus. we try to rebuild compromise, which is something lost in britain in the last two years. tom: you practiced economics in cambridge. i want you to speak to scotland gow now ont -- glas what this demand will do to the united kingdom. do you assume a dampening of demand of any outcome we see? vince: i do not think it will feel the demand for status independence. people in scotland as it london, -- as in london, which remain that is the reaction of the heart of the head will say after all the disruption of brexit some of the last thing we want is the disruption of
breaking up the united kingdom. secessionists demands are like into dampen. tom: bring the analysis to the hardened the hit -- the heart and the head. will it be a rational middle ground within this great debate? vince: what we may be beginning to see is the traditional two-party duopoly in british policy breaking down. the labour party are hopelessly split. they have a moxie and their leadership and a social democratic membership. the tory party are increasingly split between extremely -- extreme nationalists and more moderate people. they are starting to crack. there is a possibility of building on this independent group that we will have more and more people breaking away, working with us to constitute a
new movement of the moderate sensor. that is down the road. tom: thank you so much for visiting us. vince cable, the leader of the united kingdom liberal democrat party. coming up, i do not know if i can get the title right. the former president of the new york federal reserve system, william dudley on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
book. except vince cable i have never seen before hit the ball out of the park, writing three and even four years ago he opens open arms some of june 7 of 2019 into the future, indian sources report a border incidents on the line of control in kashmir. cashmere. congratulations on getting in front of the news is i have never seen in fiction. vince: it is a political furlough. i have a long-standing association with india and i first went there over half a century ago. i have indian in-laws. i love the country. i am aware of how important it is. but also of the dangers of conflict and you have these nuclear powers. you have division based on religion and those divisions are
reflected in society because we former indian population. i sent my drama around an arms contract between britain and india. trying to push arms exports and we find ourselves in the middle of that historic conflict. which remarkably has remained subdued for many years, given the potential for the damage. this is a thriller. yesterday we saw tensions unfold. we covered it on bloomberg surveillance between india and pakistan. what do me -- we misunderstand about geopolitics around the world? vince: we are underestimating the risks. dispute an undissolved over territory which is reflected in populist politics and both these are countries. they rely heavily on the indian
government on hindu nationalism, the pakistan government on radicals. rise.s we have been fortunate they have had rational leaders on both sides. the potential for disaster is also real. francine: is this the retrenchment of the superpower that is the u.s. from playing a bigger role in the region? vince: it is part of it. probably china has more influence in the region because of its big investment in pakistan. the united states traditionally played a role in both sides. they valued india because of its economic importance and democracy. remember -- and all the pakistan side, the united states supported them for reasons.
the united states has walked away and that is one of the factors adding. mentioned,ble as you galbraith working with john f. kennedy, you attended the meetings of margaret of another time and place. what is the special relationship of the united kingdom with india? as a: probably not as big lot of british people would like to believe. we left a legacy, much of it good, some of it bad, including the partition of india. -- that written plays is we now have a substantial minority in the u.k. of migrants who came, some of them from pakistan. and many kashmir indians as well.
bad left the good and the transplanted into british society. that is the link we now have. francine: how will the world economy link to the geopolitics and the next years? vince: india will overtake china. its economy is extremely dynamic. which apeculiar case, controlled economy with a private sector. government goes to sleep at night and the economy starts to function. it grows 7% a year. it is overtaking china. within a few years, it will probably have the third biggest economy in the world. smart people are beginning to appreciate its importance. economic --a major
viviana: this is bloomberg surveillance. aon is considering what could be the insurance industry's largest merger. the insurer is weighing in auxerre big -- did. bloomberg has learned aon is preparing to submit an offer. shares of willis tower hit a high. the company is valued at $24 billion. wall street to clean up one of the shadiest corners in finance. bloomberg learned goldman sachs and jp morgan are among those agreeing to a plan.
it within sure defaults are tied onstress and not traders derivatives. today is the final day of production on the general motors plan. gm announced a major restructuring that included closing for plants -- four plants. gm says almost all the blue-collar workers whose jobs are in jeopardy can work with the company elsewhere. tom? thank you. this is important and has a lot to do with making money and operating income and return on equity. makeup,a surveillance annmarie hordern did. we look at kylie jenner. it is about image. it is also about money. rihanna prosed the filter foundation.
what is rihanna getting right ner? miss jen are -- jen >> they are using their personal level of celebrity and platforms to sell products and they are teaming up. me 500 million euros in revenue. that is a lot for a new ground. kylie jenner when she teamed up with all to come you see how the stock surged. her customers were able to go into a store and buy them. she started this with low overhead and using it online. they are using their power of celebrity, instagram followers, twitter and what they represent to sell these. tom: there is distribution involved which is the most difficult part of any business. how does mr. bezos do this? does he need to find a kylie jenner?
anne marie: that is a good question. bloomberg intelligence was report theyt medics are lacking celebrity endorsements and that is creating a market share loss. it is clear you need this kind of celebrity endorsement for one or two of some of your brand to get more of a buzz. that is what kylie jenner has done. you have to create as you know. as you know a cult following. it is not about legacy brands. it is about cult followings and having that image not just in your products but on social media. francine: 128 million followers on instagram helps. who is she trying to sell to? >> i have been given a gift of the lip kit. i actually like the lip kit. i was skeptical because i like
the brands i like. she is selling to millennials. these are people who follow her instagram. now they can buy the kit she uses and she uses these products. when she gets her makeup done, she was a i used my lip gloss. francine: how much of a problem is this for legacy brands? revlon was down 18%. do they need that younger demographic economic come through celebrities? vince: i asked -- anne marie: i asked as well. he said many times they bought these brands so they would bought -- which had a cult following and now it is part of l'oreal. -- beauty is teaming up with lvmh. they are looking into younger demographics teaming up with rihanna which is huge. walk into the for a and you and also is ara
i can customize each line for each family member? yup. and since it comes wi your internet, you can switch wireless carriers and save hundreds of dollars a year. are you pullin' my leg? nope. you sure you're not pullin' my leg? i think it's your dog. oh it's him. good call. get the data options you need and still save hundreds of dollars. do you guys sell, other dogs? now that's simple, easy, awesome.
in amid global disinflation, this hour alan ruskin of deutsche bank. hisident trump distracted, loyal core and anybody but solidy america give him results. and drags it. -- brexit. it goes in search of a new reformation. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance life from our headquarters. in new york, i am tom keene. francine lacqua in london. give me an update. forget about iain duncan smith. forget about vince cable. we understand theresa may was briefed by her people she does not have the numbers to get her deal through parliament. we understand negotiations are ongoing in brussels to see
whether she can get a better deal. we do not have an exact date but it is by march 12 so anything can happen. we need to look at politicking. tell you, talking to sir howard davies in the last hour, rate. limits a 24% revote there is a talk of an election coming up but 50 minutes ago the oecd came out. viviana is going to talk about that with turkey contracting 1.8%. you see in dynamics selected em countries. with the first world news, viviano -- viviana. oecd cutting its outlook from 3.5% to 3.3%. the report warns things could get worse as risks pileup. among them, trade disputes, a disorderly brexit or financial problems. carlos ghosn walking out of a
jail in tokyo after 108 days behind bars. the former nissan chairman posting in bail. it is one of the highest amounts ever in japan. freedom will give him a chance to work closer on allegations of financial misconduct. prosecutors could extend a arresting him on new charges. another defeated parliament over the revised brexit deal. smitherg learned julian -- next boatop will be tight. in hopes that will feel a market rally, bloomberg learned the president is concerned the lack of an agreement could drag down stocks. the president is looking for a win after the summit with north korea's kim jong-un collapsed. global news 24 hours a day, on-air at tictoc on twitter,
powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. commodities, let's get through it weekly. on to alan ruskin. wait does the days in a row. point 00.ng on 113 oil south, on to the next dream showing bull market stress, 15.09. and 3.08. francine? francine: what i am looking at is similar. i am looking at catalysts that tells the markets what they need to do next. investors waiting fresh news on trade and monetary policy, the dollar up, treasuries edging higher. weakened.end -- i am also looking at oil. we have a bigger than expected
holdup. american oil, 56.01. tom: what a joy to have vince cable with us. and of course a liberal democrat. here is a vince cable chart for you which backs so much over the iain duncan smith. another time, the ugly 1974 recession but an upward slope in u.k. gdp over 20 years and coming off of the e.u. it has not happened with regression of slower economic growth in the united kingdom for any set of reasons, not just brexit. francine? francine: i am looking at global , looking atat comes volatility in the foreign exchange market. this is a chart tracking the bloomberg dollar index, the g7
volatility index and fx volatility index. what it tells us is low volatility in currencies have been the boon to trade as it reduces the chance that changes in currency values or gains made in interest rate differentials and if you look at volatility trying to give you an idea of where we are headed next, look at the trends. tom: we want to rip up the script. you can do that with alan ruskin of deutsche bank. he writes a rod note -- broad note. turkey as a box in the em. turkey has skyhigh rates. oed says the economy is contract. is that a canary in a proverbial em, i'm? alan: well the canary funds at least. we hope that positive things are going to happen. the key in any adjustment in
this sort is britain needs to see slow growth translate into better external accounts. someternal accounts reach gdp,ibrium, maybe -2% of somewhere in that region turkey will have hit some new equilibrium. worked with mr. ruskin so many times i knew what the answer was going to be, which was external accounts. tell me about the external accounts of china. we had an extraordinary set of interviews yesterday on the people's congress on trade and also this idea of cfr. president xi jinping has released threats. the point again if you want to look at external --ounts is china's surplus
there is not a lot of room for maneuver. anything they give to the u.s. they have to take from somewhere else. forecomes a zero sum game the world. trade talks seem to be in a delicate stage. it does seem like the chatter we are getting suggests we could get some deal at the end of this month. that is remarkable given where trade talks were just six weeks ago. they were -- i was in china around then and there were little progress. the progress that has been made, and there are standing issues that are thought to be dealt with. mostly they revolve around accountability and -- can we really see that china is complying with the u.s.'s request? francine: what did we learn from china yesterday? it was clever lowering the gdp at the same time boasting
stimulus because you had market distortion. are you expecting to sell more of the same story from china? alan: china has a growth problem. it does not seem that way because an economy as large as china growing between six and 6.5% is no problem. it is extraordinary. that ticks percent growth rate is how big thete chinese economy is relative to where we were 19 years ago. rate is not a problem. it is a problem in relation to the chinese have led the world to expect. that is one thing. it is clear the chinese economy to grow at that rate needs additional stimulus. what gains toted enact, an increase in fiscal
stimulus. the deficit does not look large. the fiscal stimulus is not that large but more importantly, they seem to have flicked the switch as far as credit growth. the january financing data did show this big leap in the lending side of things. that will need to continue if china is to grow anything like the pace they suggest. if there is any precursor, any suggestion china is going to grow slowly, it has been in slow money surprised -- supply growth. francine: thank you so much. the zimbabwe minister of finance coming up at 6:30 in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: the pictures of outside the offices of his lawyer in tokyo, carlos ghosn just a couple hours ago walking out of a tokyo prison on bail oner 108 days in detention allegation of financial crimes. handled bye has been the press. look at that media of it there. i think he is trying to hide his face. his bail, $8.9 million, among the highest ever paid. tom: extraordinary. you have done interviews with carlos ghosn. the next time -- last time i saw him was on the streets of new york with his wife and we talked
up taxicabs in new york city. mr. ghosn of course involved in renault. as francine mentioned, the ,ength of jail time in japan absolutely extraordinary. we will keep these images going. we will monitor with a business -- monitor. with a business flash is viviana rotondo. according to a dutch newspaper, a is looking at reports of money laundering. according to another report, money was moved through accounts that later became part of rbs. >> some of this russian money went through an entity, which we acquired in 2008 and a business which has been closed down subsequently makes it difficult to know whether this was
reported or who is responsible and we're going to have to work on that. viviana: in japan, a financial group slashing its profits by 86%. the company's third-largest bank blames security losses. to eliminatens jobs over the next decade. meet the world's youngest self-made billionaire: 21-year-old kylie jenner. the half-sister of kim kardashian making it off the list after his -- her cosmetic company signed the partnership ulta beauty.-- to become the third-largest business person. tom: thank you. the cologne bowtie as i
try to keep up with kylie jenner. officer ofontent many years in washington. i want to focus today marty, on the elephant in the room which is the polling of the president. this is from a guy who's professional at polls. ofteng the president overstates his support among hispanic voters. trumps the base among them is not huge but it is there. trump 129% of the latino vote. -- 29% of the latino vote. maybe over time the labels will change as they did for many italian voters and republicans will gain more voters. it brings up this do we are all in.
marty: there is this conventional wisdom that somehow hispanic voters vote as a block on the liberal side of policies and that is not true. the support donald trump gets from hispanic voters chose that. here?hat do we see michael bloomberg announcing he would step aside yesterday. i want to talk about the remaining democratic people. did they adjust to the core constituency? the narrative now is the democrats are leaning on the left side. the word socialism comes up time and again. what we cannot forget is we are a most a year away from the iowa caucuses. there is so much time for the public to form their views of these candidates. the moderates are going to get their day. tom: this is critical and i do
not have an answer and i know you will. is the public engaged in this debate? the zeitgeist is it is a narrow part of american politics that is watching cable news or, do you suggest they are more engaged than one would admit? marty: my sense is they are more engaged. that is the consequence of donald trump. from my viewpoint, this is the positive part of donald trump's presidency. people are more interested in what is happening in their government and they are day.wing this race day by jump in because we are getting live pictures out of tokyo. carlos ghosn getting out on bail just a couple hours ago, this allows mr. ghosn to prepare for a trial that is likely months away. let's cast ourselves back. he was in jail for 108 days.
on surprise arrest of aations of financial decades-old alliance of nissan and renault. oncasts a harsh light japan's legal system. he changed lawyers saying his previous lawyers were not harsh enough. we understand he was able to get out of jail but he did pay a $8.9of a .9 million -- billion. if the economy in 2020 holds firm, that president trump is almost unbeatable? i would not say he is unbeatable but i would say he is formidable and that is a caveat. if the economy stays strong, oecd is indication, the came out and cut global forecasts, so there is some
semblance of the narrative where things get worse in the economy. that would spell trouble for donald trump. tom: thank you so much, our chief content of us the washington review. coming up, this is important. david westin in conversation with a controversial republican, susan collins of maine. 12:00 today. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine from london and new york. we heard to the central bank awaiting central change of a forced meeting. a monetary policy committee kept at 24%. bank is looking at. alan ruskin, where do you see opportunities? is it countries with idiosyncratic stories or a general fed play? ofn: there is a slew idiosyncratic stories. given how contained volatility how volatility is likely to remain constrained, look at the high-yield in trades. everyone has some political story and you cannot anticipate easily when they might rear their head.
savers bosque or type trades. some think you have in the bloomberg carry index, but currencies like mexico, brazil, even turkey, india, indonesia, russia, they are all in the mix as participants. i do not think you could take a confident view on anyone of those currencies given the idiosyncrasies and politics behind them. as a group they perform well. francine: the e u expected expect to carry trades to come back into full force? already it was the story of the last six months, but how much of a story will it become in 2019? alan: you are right to point out it has had good months before it
, which is a warning sign. we put out as part of our wouldy forecast that -- do well in the first quarter months. we hold to that. i do not think it is going to be a home run. it is not the perfect carry environment. ,t has a pal but there effectively has a trump type trades on the equity side. ruskin put?e a if that mattered. tom: tell me about the emerging markets in the united states of america. alan: look at the dollar now. it is treading water. the key will be which way does it break out as far as euro-dollar is concerned? it has had plenty of time to break on the downside.
it has struggled to break on 112. will it have an opportunity to break above 116? fundamentals are not pushing it that way. i have no idea what alan ruskin said in the last three minutes. markets.ansas currency alan ruskin of deutsche bank with us and we will continue. do not forget that the currency basket. jonathan ferro in conversations. one of his properties, the open. frommorel is taking over mr. gross. this is bloomberg. ♪
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine from london and new york. we need a brexit update.
still talking about house of commons but let's get to the bloomberg first world news. after 108 days behind bars in tokyo, carlos ghosn is free on bail. the former chairman was released from jail after posting an $8.9 million bail. he was arrested over allegations of financial misconduct. he could still end up in jail of prosecutors arrest him on new charges. restoringa is facilities that its long-range missile fight. that comes from a south korean newspaper. jong-unr, kim dismantled the site. the summit between kim and president trump broke up without any agreement. special counsel robert mueller is hammering paul manafort days before his sentencing. prosecutors working for mueller telling a judge manafort refused to accept responsibility for his crimes. he faces up to 24 years in prison.
he was convicted of tax fraud and failing to disclose offshore accounts. one of president trump's closest allies in the senate says he should have a new role model. lindsey graham says if the president wants to know how to lead while under the investigation come if you should look to bill clinton. graham says the former president simply governed the country. graham was one of the prosecutors in those hearings. global news 24 hours a day, on-air at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. you.ine: thank the international trade secretary speaking of the house of commons. we were listening to what he had to say. he is not ruling out voting for next week.f exit theresa may has been told the brexit vote next week will be tight. forces say her chief has won the cabinet, that he is not confident the bill will pass. may has sent to brussels for
more talks. talking to us now to make sense of all this is bloomberg opinion editor, to raise raphael. what did we learn in the last 24 hours? we do the vote would be tight. it depends on whether theresa may can focus the hardline brexiteers and say, if you do not vote for this, we may not have a brexit. the northern irish allies expressing skepticism that what they get back is going to be enough. saying he would not rule out voting for no deal. it is extraordinary. this is the trade secretary who surely knows the economic damage a no deal would bring to the country. this is telling her the numbers are not there. there is a negotiation going on. there is posturing happening and it is too early to judge what will happen when geoffrey cox
comes back, makes a statement and this is what i have got. are you prepared for the unknown? we understand people in parliament do not want a no deal brexit. but are we underestimating the fact that this could still happen? it would be full is to roll out a no deal brexit at this point. the parliament will not vote for a no deal brexit. that is clear. the question is, what happens when it goes to an extension? what happens when we get to a general election or referendum? francine: has that changed? we are hearing from vince cable wanted a ways argued he a second referendum, putting the probability at 30%. toh constituency is sticking what they believe without making headway together. therese: the parliamentary
support for a second referendum really say that is a probable option. even if there wasn't support for a second referendum, getting to the point where they all agree on what questioned to voters, we are still a long way of dust before the second referendum becomes a live option, much less a base case. tom: thank you for your twitter feed. i cannot say enough about being informed on brexit. therese raphael, as you know duncan smith got carried away on a new reformation and there was an uproar about bloomberg surveillance and about me, about the assumption the believers have the high ground now. you put up data that says maybe not. how much did the remainders have now in polling support versus believers?
therese: -- was given this wonderful cap -- duncan smith was given this wonderful platform. the majority last time i checked was 50% and there is no polling 50% ofpports web and britain would leave without a deal. this is not a remain, leave weston. it is more about, how does britain look at the choices available? what we can say is two plus years on from the 2016 referendum, people realize this is a complex issue of 52% voted to leave in 2016. that was without even knowing what leave meant. the latest poll says about 28% would support leaving without a deal. if you break that down further, it has polling from politics. what would you accept?
those produced interesting answers that show nearly half would except theresa may's deal. they do not like it but they would accept it. --have to be clear politicians have to be clear when they talk to us about what the people are telling us they want in the polls. tom: what is the single thing you are following in the next few days? therese: it is all lies on brussels, all eyes on attorney general geoffrey cox and we want to see the exact wording of whatever he has managed to negotiate and i have to believe he is going to come back with something. that is what you want. they want to bring this back to parliament and then it will be, for me the dup and whether they find that acceptable. francine: thank you so much for the update. bloomberg opinion editor, therese raphael. alan ruskin, i feel like i asked
the same question. what is priced into pound and what do you see for cable? alan: it does change day in and day out. the market is leaning towards the idea that the march 12 date ,ill not bring complete clarity i.e. theresa may will not get a deal pushed through. when i was looking at volatility yesterday, it was implying that table was going to move by less than 1%, which be -- would be a small move in context. trade is being burned time and time again by thinking data is important and then it is not. expect instance, i would the ball would be higher than that. almost regardless. the perception out there is, it
is at a nice edge but if the market gains any confidence that theresa may's deal is getting through, we should get up. tom: we dive into alan ruskin's world. bring it up, jason. this is what the pros look at. as mr. ruskin mentioned, look at the back. there is a smile like on a pumpkin, a nice even smile. the is what they carve at francine lacqua house for halloween. you get a that on a weaker sterling. this skewed here is almost what we call a smirk. there really is not a lot of optimism. you are pushing against consensus. there is a sense that if we get some resolution, the pound can park. when francine asked about where their value is -- tom: where is it?
alan: it is the low one 40's. does that seem reasonable by other metrics, for example looking at external? up on the theresa may deal to 135 or 135-140? are we in the zone? probably. much,ne: thank you so alan ruskin. he stays with us. speaking of brexit, theresa may will face questions from members of parliament after two members effortcabinet help in an to cement changes to the controversial irish backstop. 12:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
viviana: let's get the bloomberg business flash. wall street is trying to clean up what is considered one of the shadiest corners in finance. thank and hedge funds are closer to a fixed. bloomberg learned goldman sachs and j.p. morgan are among those agreeing to a plan. it would ensure default are tied to financial stress. today is the final day of motors in on general ohio. gm announced closing for plants in the u.s. and another in canada. up to 40,000 workers could be affected. gm said a most all blue collar workers whose jobs are in jeopardy can work for the company elsewhere. you may remember president trump carried mary borrow for these job cuts. tom: thank you so much.
you have two items to talk about here. aon is going to pull out of their deal with the willis tower transaction and since reserve is right, to set aside this announcement. a -- very importantly, on the new york stock exchange now, options customers may experience temporary disconnect. american options, the >> options probe is involved. i am not sure what that headline means that there it is across the bloomberg. the careful if you are doing options. let's go to our single best chart. we can do that with alan ruskin of deutsche bank. he mentioned the dollar within range. i would suggest that the dollar, this is the bbdxy. there are different dollars now. is the opportunity specific? g20? g5, g10,
alan: it must be outside the dollar, tom. trades. about carry some of those carry trades are naturally financed. this is the euro with its negative rates rather than the dollar. there is that. as far as the dollars -- the dollar is concerned on g10, we spoke about the pond. we offer opportunities day by day. obvious trend. on the majors, vis-a-vis the euro, we britt -- wait break it news. could it be president trump shifts its attention from china to you tariffs? -- e.u. tariffs? matthew miller saba discussion over tariffs. what if mr. draghi comes out and
extends his late summer 2019 ballet out in the autumn or winter of this year? extends out there disinflationary play? alan: that is largely priced in. the expectation is president havei does extend the ltr -- and the big surprise would be if he did not. that would be a shocker. you could make arguments europe can go two ways. the euro would rally on the frightening story. the euro would go down. francine: we have not talked about yen for a while. what does yen do with this backdrop? alan: the yen is for the main point, at least dollar-yen is made in the usa. it is not made on the basis of japanese fundamentals. ofe in the usa is a case
still dollar carry which is material. it is forcing, get in the shape of the u.s. curve for insurance companies to come in and unhedged bases. in a broad sense, people are seeing dollar carry as very high relative to anything else you can get in g10. the yen is caught up in that play and does a funding currency. can it get up to a three -- a three 150 a 3.150? president trump once a weaker dollar. that would probably help with his campaign promises and help him get elected. extremely interesting to
see the markets reaction to his comments. they are really pushed to the side. that was helpful for -- from a dollar standpoint. there is a certain sense in the marketplace that the guy who wields most of the power, dollar the dollar and policy. if the fed is not a fire with the president's and u.s. trade secretary. on the -- ultimately the fed will win. that is a starting point. how overvalued is the dollar? how rich is it? it is probably rich and metrics by 5%, which is worth maybe three quarters of percent on gdp relative to baseline on a three-year period? it is not a big deal from the gdp standpoint, i would argue, even using arguments the dollar is holding back the u.s. economy. francine: thanks so much.
tom: bloomberg surveillance. francine lacqua in london. i am tom keene in new york. in our washington studios, we are thrilled to bring you the minister of finance and economic development. that barely describes the ncube whoof mthuli has written people efforts on finance. wonderful to have you again with us on the estate of zimbabwe come on the state of african governments. len -- underline the constellation of fiscal mathematics of africa now? can it be a better picture in 2020 and 2025? mthuli: the bobwhite is on its way to a better place.
we are balancing the budget. we are averaging $1 million a month. things are looking good. this is stabilizing the currency. is gettingzimbabwe chipper. we have a domestic currency. we are back in the game again. tom: you are back in the game and as you leave within your reformed report, it is about government and the age-old issue of corruption across to many nations. how is a mathematician handling improved governance in zimbabwe? alan: we are tough -- mthuli: we are tough on corruption. we have made progress in dealing with our own enterprise. tom: give us an example. mthuli: we have separated the premarket and board into two
separate entities, one that is government controlled. ourave also be bundled supply utility company into one entity. it used to be five entities. better result in delivery. through is we are tough in but also setting the torch on corruption. corruption, and to commission, and allow him to do his job. francine: i want to ask about currency. will the government dispose of the volume of trade on new currency? traded $7st week we million about that. this is just the beginning. that is the last thing zimbabwe has had to fix. the trading has started. it can only get better, also
trying to get -- improve the market structure. you will see it improved over time and continue to fluctuate properly. it has allowed us to introduce popular monetary policy. , presentargeting money. inflation capital. francine: you are saying the government will disclose the volume of trading in new currency? mthuli: absolutely. we have to disclose that. but also government would not be a participant in the market itself, would not allow the market to participate. we should stay out of the market , otherwise we would be stuck. the mines minister said zimbabwe would have to scrap overshift requirement. what will the new level the? own 100% of any
mining investments, any investment in zimbabwe. we are removing that rule, which is discouraging. if you allowe open 100% of investment. that sounds wonderful but what does it mean if china shows up at the door? are you going to put a big for-sale sign on zimbabwe when china shows up with all that fdi? is open forabwe anyone. i am in the u.s. so that has been my message. if something progressive is happening, we should not run the election. develop jointly with zimbabwe. business while open to anyone. it is fair to say chinese
investors, do we have a big check? africa has a huge infrastructure. that is what they do all over the world. they are just good at it. andre open for anyone anyone -- everyone there. tom: we have to leave it there. coming up, atomic conversation as we move march 20. the former president of the new york fed, bill dudley now private citizen right on the path forwards. stay with us through the day. this is bloomberg. ♪
strongrs seek safety in balance sheet companies. again,ts global outlook morning trade tensions and political uncertainty and weakness in china and europe -- tensions, trade political uncertainty and weakness in china and europe. investigations and spread to the u.s. and u.k. for danske bank. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." carlos ghosn is actually out of jail, the first time in over 100 days now. go. have let him there he is in the car. alix: this happened 30 minutes ago. he will still have restrictions at home.