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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  March 7, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: big reaction to draghi. the euro falling sharply, the dollar strengthening. ato-dollar now trading $113.32. we are seeing a rotation out of -- trading ats 1.2132. we are seeing a rotation out of cyclical stocks. banks initially moved higher on the announcement from the tltro, and quickly nosedived. the 10 year yield now trading at just seven bits. big move today. german curve flattening, not good news for europe's banks.
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it was a much more dovish draghi than the market were expecting. vonnie: in the u.s. we are seeing stock indices down by about 1%, or a little less in the case of the s&p 500. fromollar index coming highs of the year off of euro weakness and sterling weakness today. we will be talking about the ecb all day long. another story that is obviously catching our tension today is kroger, down 12%. we spoke with the cfo earlier, who said investors are reacting to several things. he said that investors are probably just overreacting slightly that they are not going to do any buybacks, but they are also going to pay down some debt , and investors weren't going to anticipate that. estee lauder one of the better stories of today, up about 1%. jp morgan even gave estee lauder an upgrade today. guy: more and more european
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banks getting caught up in allegations of money laundering. we've seen institutions over the last few days seeing share prices taken down sharply. danske the most obvious case, but swedbank also in the crosshairs. bill browder of hermitage capital is investigating $230 million worth of dirty money he alleges is linked to the death of his former lawyer. i talked to him a little earlier on. i asked him if he ever season in point in his investigation -- ever sees an endpoint in his investigation. guest: for a person like me, an activist, you never look for the endpoint because you get frustrated. the best thing to do is say, what have i accomplished? has that got me closer to my goal? guy: but you can't ever see yourself saying we've got it all. we know roughly what happened. we are going to shut it down.
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you and your team have presumably accumulate it a great deal of information and skill in assessing the reason these moneys are taken. guest: we are probably the most effective money laundering investigators in europe right now. who knows where that will take us? but right now we want to find out who got the money my lawyer was killed over, and make sure nobody who got that money and laundered that money gets away with it. guy: just to circle back a little bit, as you continue that process of trying to figure out where that money came from, went now,nd ultimately resides you broadened it out from the nordic region through the baltics, now weaving through into the netherlands and austria. is it a part -- is there a part of europe you can see being left unscathed by this? is everybody involved?
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guest: there are some banks that have proper anti-money laundering principles and mechanisms, and there are some banks that were attracted by the prophets. profits.-- by the you will eventually be able to list the banks that managed properly and those that didn't. there are some that got greedy and did this bad business, and some that had strict criteria and didn't, and that will all emerge. in the it smaller banks search for profit that were or open to this then larger banks? is there a kind of cap? guest: there's no criteria for what makes somebody succumb to the enticement of cricket money. -- of crooked money. danske bank is one of the biggest banks in the nordic region, and i've seen very small banks get shut down for the same
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thing. go as ano way you can investor, for example, and say if you cut off these types of banks, you are not going to be affected by this. it comes down to the character of the people managing those banks, and how fearful they were of getting in trouble, and how greedy they were to return profits to the shareholders. guy: in terms of the scale, it is interesting as well. is appropriatene for one institution versus another? is it a case-by-case story? guest: in my opinion, fines are the wrong punishment. the people who committed the crimes are the management and employees of these banks, and the fines are punishing the shareholders. it is the people who have response ability that should be prosecuted and go to jail. if people start going to jail, this whole thing will stop in two seconds. but right now what is the consequence? you run a bank for five or 10
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years, collect a bunch of bonuses, get discovered, lose your job, keep your bonuses, and the shareholders get hit with a $1 billion fine. guy: do you think people will go to jail over this? guest: i fear that in europe, no one will go to jail, and in 10 years we will have another one of these conversations. guy: bill browder of hermitage capital talking to me a little bit earlier today. in response to the allegations, swedbank has said we have, as far as we know, not yet been able to see the notification, comments or details, so we have had difficulty commenting. rep-bank has said it has started investigation into the matter. vonnie: great interview. now let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here's courtney donohoe. courtney: former trump campaign
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manager paul manafort will be sentenced today for bank and tax fraud, and could get up to 29 years in prison. observers believe the federal judge will give him less than that. manafort's lawyers claim he was unfairly smeared by special counsel robert mueller's investigation into russian election meddling. huawei is hitting back on washington's claims it helps china spy. the chinese telecom maker is basedthe u.s. government on a u.s. law that prevents comedies from using equipment from huawei and zte. the u.s. sees a rise of chinese military activity in the disputed south china sea. will not say whether that leads to an increased u.s. patrol in that region. he says chinese tory maneuvers are a hazard to trade and information flowing on
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underwater cables. european officials are pessimistic that there will be a breakthrough in brexit talks this week. negotiators suspect that whatever they offer won't be enough to get the british parliament to back prime minister theresa may's deal. the european union is reluctant to shift its position. it is not sure it would be enough to get a deal past. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. still ahead, draghi speaks. peterl speak with rbc's sapphic about the way forward for the global economy. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." vonnie: a lot of news to digest today. here is abigail doolittle. abigail: on that news from the ecb, concerns around global growth in europe -- gross, growth at least in europe. and japan, the nikkei down 7/10 of 1%. despite the dovish tone of the ecb, which in some cases would the stocks, we are seeing selloff for emerging markets, down 1.2%. investors clearly going with the narrative that global growth is slowing. nows&p 500 and the dow down seven of the last eight sessions. we have a haven bid as investors
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have been treading water, trying to figure out what is next. now that we have some of this narrative out of europe, b and confirmed with a decent drop for the 10 year yield over the last four days. the biggest rally for bonds since january, so investors are going from stocks into bonds and other haven assets. the china-related stocks are selling off especially hard. let's take a look at a few of those. we see the likes of alibaba, jd.com, and by do trading lower. on that news from the ecb, investors selling risk assets, and we see china related chairs going lower. guy, you've been talking about that monster rally in china. let's take a look at the chart in bloomberg that shows that rally. this husband going -- this goes back to the s&p 500 high in pink or purple, the dax in europe in blue, and in white we have
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china. china, since that last s&p 500 high, maybe a little bit of a random number, but up about 27% over this time period, clearly outperforming other global indexes. that is where investors have been going. with this new round of risk off, it will be interesting to see whether that rally can be sustained. guy: chinese authorities want to keep it going. they've certainly been helping out of late. cutting its 2019 economic forecast, but also announcing a fresh round of monetary stimulus in the form of a new tltro. the governing council also announced it will not raise rates this year. >> given the complex city of the is a very think this positive sign for the cohesiveness of the governing council and our deliberations.
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, rce chiefg us now european strategist. was that dovish than you anticipated? guest: i think it was more dovish than the entire market wasn't is abating. if you look at the whole spectrum of things they announced, the change to forward the tltro's going longer than most people expected, and then you mentioned in your previous moderation that forecasts were dropped. the bit that i would single out is the inflation forecast for 2020 one, which was reduced to 1.6% from 1.8%. it is very difficult to argue the ecb gets you were close to fulfilling that target, even on
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a 2021 horizon. it is a pretty dovish message they have been sending out. the german ten-year trading seven bits right now. is the bond going to zero -- the bund going to zero? guest: i don't know. it is just another seven basis points. if more relative question is we will expand, and i have to say i doubt it. chinese stocks have been doing better in the authorities are doing a lot. i think ultimately that is going to be very relevant for the economic data and europe. i see the first tentative signs that data in europe is probably turning as well. if i look at the behavior of the market, for me it goes into the weeds a bit here, where the entire rally since october 2018 was driven by inflation expectations. that has not been the case most recently.
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inflation expectations have increased a bit and stayed there, and real yields are now dropping, which is a pretty healthy thing as far as the ecb is concerned. so i am not that convinced that over the medium term, three or four months, that we will be continuously rallying in the risk-free assets. the bonds,t about fixed income, and euro? we definitely see a one-time move today, but can something like another tltro move them further, or is this a one-time shift? first and foremost, the ecb has surprised on the dovish side today. but going forward, the question is not necessarily about the ecb action in the market now. the question is what is the ecb action going to do for the economy and for the inflation expectations i was just referring to.
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if we can ring them up -- bring them up and bring expectations of economic performance up, particularly for the longer end of the curve, it doesn't necessarily have to be all that bullish as it appears today right after the action. vonnie: y is the ecb only inicipating 1.6% inflation 2021 if it is doing all of this stimulus? surely it is looking to create more inflation than that, no? guest: you raise an absolutely crucial point. if i expand on your concerns a little bit, one of the things that draghi has said during the press conference, which i think is one of the reasons why the bank stocks have been impacted quite negatively, is that he said we are doing all of this come but the risk remains to the downside because some of the risks, some of the sources of the risk, are outside of our
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control. he mentioned brexit, trump tariffs, china slowed down. all of these things there is very little the ecb can do about, so even though the ecb is doing whatever it can do and throwing all its might behind the economy, it might not be enough. is starting to tie the hands of his successor. is that a problem? guest: you see, i don't really see it that way. if you look at particularly the forward guidance, they have now dropped a hint to the summer of 2019, and now they say rates are going to stay on hold until the end of 2019. draghi's last meeting is in october, and there is only one in 2019 without him, and then we are in 2020 already. i don't think the forward guidance is tying down a successor all that much. , there is the tltro's a key difference in the design.
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these are going to be indexed to the prevailing ecb rates, whereas the previous one were fixed rates. tltro's will go up with them, so the ecb is not really walking away from their tightening they have built into the forecast, so i don't think he is tying the hands of his successor. guy: is there going to be a mini credit crunch in the middle of the summer? september.cks in what happens in the middle? guest: we have to make a crucial distention here. ohe first batch of the tltr expires in june 2020, so in 2019 drops below one year, which might be iffy for some of the banks, but the big banks have told us they are not really concerned about this. the overall amount of liquidity
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doesn't really drop, so when the september ones,, we will have to see if the old ones can be rolled into the new ones. it is quite conceivable that the overall liquidity hasn't been reduced. the question is whether in that three-month window, it can be used to the same degree. i am not that worried about that. banks, equities beyond and maybe not even banks, are particularly impacted by today's announcement of more support, but you did say you noticed a change in sentiment over the past few weeks. how do you see that playing out? does europe get more investable at some point? guest: one of the things we had over the last couple of weeks, and arguably if i take 10 year we are backrometer, below the previous levels. but we came back up a little bit, and i think that is the first tentative sign that the
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economy is probably through the roughest patches. i think that is helping sentiment a bit. previously, when we look back at december when stocks reached a low just before christmas, central banks around the globe, including the fed, moved their stance a bit, which is also helping. i am not convinced that we have seen the rally in the equity market already coming to its close. i think there's probably more to come, particularly if the data turns at least a little more promising. guy: peter, we are going to leave it there. thank you for spinning time with us. , rbc's chiefik european macro strategist. vonnie: you can catch up on key analysis and even save your favorites for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." it is time for the latest bloomberg business flash. shares in barnes & noble falling today. barnes & noble had warned in january that it had a bad holiday season after spending more on advertising and offering deep discounts. the chain is considering options including sales. shares of kroger are falling for seven atlee -- are falling precipitously. kroger also posted fourth-quarter profit that came up short. the chain has been lowering prices, remodeling stores, and centralizing e-commerce operations to boost growth.
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isivist investor starboard adding pressure to sell. starboard has taken a 4% stake in the fiber network owner, and he must explore strategic alternatives. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. we are down and holding onto those losses. 1%,s&p 500 is down 8/10 of kroger the worst performer among stocks there, although down less than. 10% now itself the dow down 1%, the nasdaq down 8/10 of 1%. the euro weakening dramatically, pushing the dollar index close to its highs of the year. the dollar index above 97 all morning long, 97.39 now. the 10 year yield staying at 2.65%. guy: we talked a lot about
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draghi, certainly having a big effect on european markets today. the other factor to bear in mind is miners have been knocked as well. stocks like rio tinto under pressure as a result of going exd. it is not really under pressure, they are just going ex dividend. 30 minutes till the end of regular trading. we will deal with all of the details of what has been a very bumpy day for european markets. bloomberg. ♪
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we are approaching the end of the regular trading session negative day -- it is a negative
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day with france one of the best-performing market today. we have seen significant losses elsewhere. some of them are ecb related, some more technical based. rio tinto has gone negative today. and you need to keep that in mind when you look at europe today. i wanted to bring you this today chart, it is worth highlighting the moves we have seen in equities. very stable session here yesterday as we were waiting on news from the ecb. we go lower first thing this morning, then tracked down into the ecb, then there was a spike higher as the news of the tltros game through, then there was a realization -- came through, then there was the realization it was not as generous as tltro-ii. as a result, the cyclical stocks in the banking sector started to sell off aggressively. we bounced off of our lows earlier on. nevertheless, it is that gap
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lower that was generated by some of the -- into the market and in you get this formation around the ecb. quickly, take a look at what happened with euro and other factors worth bearing in mind, plus the banks. here is the banking story, very stable into the announcement, then a move higher as people heard of the news, then the selloff as a result. i wonder if the tltro and the initial spike was used by those managers who have held long time positions in banks used that to exit, that may not hold water. but nevertheless, they did move lower. ex-dividends are a big factor into the market as well, mining stocks, some pharmaceutical stocks in switzerland also with the bearing in mind. i want to show you the volume story as well. that is with paying attention to. what we saw earlier on was relatively lighter volume. and as you can see, what we did,
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we got across the blue line as the news came out, and then we traded on above average volume. wewe have seen today -- what have seen today is a negative session partly driven by the ecb, partly driven by big stocks going ex dividend in europe. that produced -- early weakness, the ecb exacerbating that later in the session. you saw these at the beginning of the session, largely negative, down 6/10 of 1% across most of europe. there, they appear as if by magic. dax down. cac 40 getting away with a little bit more. nevertheless, clinical factors plus the ecb. that is a look at the european vonnie: disney -- at the european close.
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th 50%: disney voting wi of the shareholder base saying they are ok with a new plan. the firms, as well as the two votedpension funds, against the compensation package. disney has had those approved by 57% of a shareholder base. against thevoted nominating two directors. as it happens come on nine directors -- happens, on nine directors were approved. they were reducing bob iger's composition by a large amount to appease the shareholders. it looks like it might have done the trick. they have approved the composition plans. disney is down seven cents of 1% today. i wanted to point that out before we get other asset classes.
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you mentioned to the reasons why the dollar index is higher today, higher by a good percentage now. it is a high of the year. 10 year yield, 2.65%. crude oil is up two thirds of 1%. and we have a quick look at the macro movers. we will take a look at that in the bloomberg. the real, the peso, these emerging currencies having a weaker day as well, no doubt on the dollar strength. guy: let's get back to the banks. deutsche bank dealing cuts, this time with employee bonuses. the bank is choosing to give raises only to the top performers, cutting others, and some have received zero payouts. we are joined by our colleague in frankfurt. effect thisbout the will have and walk us through beenuch the bonus pool has
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cut in what this tells us about where the institution is right now. j.p.: it has been cut by 10% or 15%, what we hear from people familiar with the matter. i guess it is hard to answer who is winning or losing, but in general we have some departments, the equity trading department of deutsche bank, which is producing losses, so many of the cuts are happening there. it is logical that the bank, which has been struggling with market share, that it had to take consequences and say, you are not performing or making money for us, so we cannot pay you a bonus, keep in mind, many banks have raised their base salaries over the year as the public basically put on some restraints on bonuses, so people are still getting paid quite well. guy: is staff retention going to be an issue? guess sort of. i
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you will lose some people, but they are not performing right now, not in the environment that deutsche bank can provide, so the loss is limited. i am concerned about the people who stay on board and weighing on morale. that could be an issue, that is something that deutsche bank should take care of so that while they have to take the people still stay on course. guy: can i link this to the story about the future of the equities business from the other day. we started to get an understanding of what the next moves are from management. j.p.: well, i am not sure about the next moves in particular, but it is part of the bigger picture of deutsche bank, that the bank is in the process of figuring out where it wants to go and which areas it wants to
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keep on business, and they are probably saying, we cannot make money here, so let's get rid of it because there is no point dragging it on, especially as the shareholders are certainly at the point where they are losing a little bit of patience. that is part of the bigger picture of the bank reinventing itself. guy: in terms of -- the share moment, at 70.75 at the the low just below 7, how late it to the share price is it? j.p.: not too much. even if it would be, that is not the big thing for the employees right now. the thing is the bank really needs to deliver on some changes that are measurable and for the share price to go up again. and first, they must stop the bleeding of losing market share,
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especially in investment banking, and as long as that is not happening the share price is not going to move much from besides a little bit up and down. guy: the building is still standing behind you. thank you very much. j.p.: thank you. cheers. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news. here is courtney donohoe. courtney: productivity gains better than expected in the fourth quarter, but they were still little changed from the previous quarter. employee output rising by one point &. -- by 1.9%. the hours worked cooled off. a new study says that women and black workers have made gains. the research comes from the san francisco fed president and several co-authors. it suggest when the fed leaves the interest rate low, and equities in the labor market
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could shrink. the european central bank has slashed the growth forecast for the euro area the most since quantitative easing, it think the economy growing 1.1% this year, down from the forecast of 1.7%. the ecb president expanded existing stimulus with a package of assistance, including new loans for banks. and in turkey, the turkish president has broken his silence to stand by an arms deal with russia, brushing aside the threat to punish turkey with sanctions by the u.s. if it goes ahead. calls the salean a done deal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you. we are through the auction process. in europe, we did see a decent job in the ftse 100, not much movement elsewhere in the cac 40
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or in the dax. but a decent move for the ftse 100, still finishing in negative territory, but up off of its lows. the others did move, but not as much as in the ftse 100. if you are getting in the car to go home, you can continue market coverage by listening to "the cable" show with a jon ferro in new york, i will be here in london. find us on digital radio in the london area and on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: -- guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson.
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vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the "european close." an investigation into russia's role in the presidential campaign is drawing closer to home. authorities are scrutinizing the private business dealings of trump. executive editor at bloomberg, tim o'brien, noting the scrutiny of donald trump's business dealings is just the beginning. tim o'brien is joining us. the latest column, the time that donald trump filed a huge insurance claim. give us the details on why this is true insight into what is coming next. hurricanes came through florida in 2005, donald trump has a resort there and he filed and received about $18.3 million in insurance. which is small portion of that
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went back into his resort itself. he was asked about this in litigation and he could not say whether or not the property had been damaged. and other reporters who went there to look at the property said there were no signs of real damage, so the question was what were the insurance proceeds for, that was a lot of money coming into his pocket that appeared to be used for something other than repairing his resort. vonnie: the reason this is important, first of all the president said he hadn't reviewed any of this and did not know much about it -- he might've been allowed to handle the money that way. letters, they span a huge variety of business dealings, of donald trump's organization and business partners. this is where the focus is turning now, away from robert mueller. tim: it is and impart some of the letters that went out on
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monday are a response to michael cohen's testimony come in which he named different people in the trump organization who had knowledge of possible financial missed the aliens, -- financial missed dealings. and i think that this moment we are in right now is some of the gravity from the robert mueller investigation is transferring over to congress and to the southern district of new york. robert mueller's investigation may just be a probe of obstruction of justice and he may have been hiding financial issues other people have wondered about two other jurisdictions. vonnie: republicans are watching this with an eagle eye, but the democrats are taking the position, as far as i can gather, that there may not be anything they can gleam from the report, not immediately if all this is blocked, so the democrats are looking elsewhere. tim: i think there is wish fulfillment going on on both
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sides, the left would like to report to be critical, the right would like it to exonerate the president. nobody knows what will be in the document until it is released. that is going to go to the attorney general first, who then decide how much of it should be released. and it would probably be good for the republicans, for the whole thing to be released, so people can make their own decision about what is in there. until we see it, nobody knows. vonnie: in regards to impeachment, does anybody want that? and if there is nothing in there that suggests that is a path forward, what is the next that for nancy pelosi? -- step predictability? j.p.: some think it would be problematic -- tim: the issue is, should either party insert itself into the election and turn it against the will of the voters. i think that both parties would
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want to see this go to 2020 and have the voters away in tht -- w eigh in that way. but there are problems, facts that are raising legitimate concerns about the president's legitimately. -- our bloomberg opinion editor, please read his opinion pieces and the latest. guy: bloomberg business flash time. we have a look at some of the biggest business stories right now. we have been talking about this, a good start for a hedge fund manager, we have learned that seen himself -- last year, the macro funded 30% on the upside, much of it in may. and the forecast is earnings
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will go faster this year. the german clothing maker focusing on sales through its own network rather than using third parties. who go boss has also been helped with online sales. and that was your latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie: time for our stock of the hour. shares headinghe for their worst day since june of 2017. i spoke with the cfo earlier. he said that investors may have the story confused. take a listen. >> we are going to take free cash flow in the near term and the lever the balance sheet -- delever the balance sheet to get into our guidance range, which means we will not be buying back shares in the near term. a lot of people probably would have had that built back in with not as much dollar growth. that has caused confusion out there. vonnie: profit was also a little
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short. kailey leinz has more. several factors at play. >> if you are an investor, you could see how the numbers got confused. they did beat on comp sales, 2% growth for the quarter, but they missed on earnings and revenue fell the most on record. i have a chart on the terminal, it fell 9% in the quarter paid the guidance -- the quarter. and the guidance, they are falling. and according to bloomberg analysts, the average estimate was $2.28, so this is a big mess. maybe they have a plan, but is the plan working, the investments that they are doing, they are investing online, and the analysts were helping the efforts would start to pay off by 2019 and it does not seem to be the case right now. guy: kailey leinz, talking about the u.s. grocery sector, you have to ask the amazon question. talk to me about how worried they are.
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>> they brushed it off. and they are investing more space, recognizing that with 91% of the customers having access to home delivery and online ordering. those sales did grow 58% this year. they are also looking to get more revenue from advertising online. they say that that and other initiatives could bring in $400 million in revenue by 2020. vonnie: the cfo also said they have almost 3000 stores. ee.sasi. -- shall s thank you. battle of the charts is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts. it will be our first sea change segment with key events coming into effect in 2020.
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alix? vessels large container give off as much pollution as 760 million cars, and that is about to change. new rules will limit the sulfur content in maritime fuel. there is a grace period, but the rules are here to stay and you cannot cheat. if you do, you will be labeled unseaworthy. thatan buy a scrubber cleans out the sulfur dioxide. the most popular are the open scrubbers, but they release a sludge into the ocean. more than 2800 vessels would still need to make the switch and china and singapore are banning them, this coming at a high price, at least $500,000 in operating expenses a year. or use the fuels like diesel and marine glass oil. -- gas oil.
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the demand could grow by two madea barrels a day, but the supplies are tight -- 2 million barrels a day, but the supplies are tight. you could run diesel, but you will get gasoline as well, causing a glut. you can use some crude from venezuela, but that is a low supply. there is too much demand and skyhigh diesel margins. this is what it means for companies. shippers lose money, or they go bankrupt. it is good for some who can use different types of crude, bad for others. gode and product spreads haywire and vessels turned alternatives, like lng. anywhere you slice it, this will change the should be world. -- change the shipping world. vonnie: that was alix steel. reporting. now she is here. now it is time for the global battle of the charts.
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>> this will show you how much more you are going to pay for the products of versus wti. the differences $21 a barrel. as the demand picks up and supply tightens, how high can that get? it could hit $30 a barrel. and who is paying for that? is it the consumer, the end buyer or the shipper? it will be very disruptive. and we will be following this on "commodities edge." vonnie: almost doubling in the last couple weeks alone. now, guy. composite, theai rally we have seen since the start of this year, absolutely phenomenal. we saw the chart that abigail doolittle brought to us earlier, the outperformance of chinese stocks has been i watering. does it continue? i will get technical. 70% of stocks on the shanghai
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composite are above 70, they are in overboard territory. that is a massive number. the last time we saw it was in 2015, the last time that it really spiked higher and then edged sharply to the downside. china is looking pretty overheated right now. vonnie: pretty good entry. but the winter today is alix steel. animation, itad would be totally different. vonnie: watch alix at 1:00 p.m. your time, 6:00 p.m. london time. the euro has hit its weakest since june of 2017, above 1.12 after the ecb. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics
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meets the world of business. on the brief today, stephanie flanders on the ecb's bold move. kevin cirilli on the sentencing of paul manafort. it was bold and when it came across the wire i was surprised. stephanie: you look at what they are doing, it is all the things we expected them to do in a few months, but they did it today, so that is exciting. the markets are like, hold on, they are reacting because they are ahead of the curve, or because they do not have much ammunition. david: we will come back to you on that. we will go now to kevin cirilli. big event coming up this afternoon, paul manafort will be sentenced. kevin: he could be sentenced to more than two decades in jail. the hearing will begin just across the river here in arlington,

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