tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg March 10, 2019 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
welcome to daybreak australia. i am haidi stroud-watts. ramy: i am ramy inocencio. ramy:sophie: i am sophie kamaruddinsophie:. we are counting down to the major market open. haidi: here are the top stories, making progress, china says trade talks are moving forward with meaningful discussions and general agreement. theresa may facing another difficult week. her brexit bill is expected to fail again and reports say she has lost support of her cabinet.
mostoncerns over boeing's popular plane after the crash of another. everyone was killed. u.s. let's look at how stocks ended. the s&p 500 was down .2%. the big fed -- big headline was the jobs report at 20,000. the estimate was something like 180,000. and that was pretty much across the board with all of them in negative territory. below the flatg line but we are asking ourselves whether we are in a reality check on whether the february jobs number is saying, are we seeing the first signs of a true slowdown? let's flip up the board. for the s&p 500, on the right-hand side, this is in red. this is the first down week in the past five weeks we are seeing this.
for the week it was down 2% three looking ahead, five days of losses. there is a silver lining in terms of average hourly earnings. let's see what the market is doing now. sophie: the global stock rally has been hit by the reality check given more signs of slowing growth across the globe. looks like slow going for asian markets with futures pointing to a mixed start after the regional benchmark lost $384 billion in value over the last 10 trading days, the worst for 2019 global stocks. we are keeping an eye on reaction. inflation and credit data was released over the weekend but this morning we are light on the eco-agenda. orderse numbers and tool are due at the start at the week. board to check in on sterling, the pound is under
pressure on dealers targeting ahead of the vote tuesday where the parliament will vote on the brexit deal. haidi: news with kathleen hays. kathleen: president trump is expected to present is 2020 budget later and reuters reports he will ask congress for an extra $8.6 billion to pay for the wall. the wall street journal says the budget will assume the government -- economy continues to expand while others say growth will slow. is the first since democrats -- it is the first since democrats won the house. a surge in january with the first two months of the year signaling recovery in the credit supply. the pboc said aggregate billion, topped $105 last month, compared with
forecasts of twice as much. matching a slowest ever expansion. theresa may entered the potentially defining week with reports think she has lost the backing of all but two of her cabinet. the tule -- daily telegraph says she should resign and that could happen if labor tables and wins a new vote of confidence. faced -- in fell on deaf ears in brussels. >> we support the prime minister information is clear -- if her mission is clear. so we can move on. [indiscernible] more opportunities for colleagues to scrutinize the arrangement potentially to amend , and it is extra opportunity. will send aeing team to assist the investigation into the ethiopian airlines
crash that killed all people on board. the boeing 737 max came down shortly after taking off from audits obama -- from the capital. this raised more safety concerns after the same model crashed in indonesia in october. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am kathleen hays. this is bloomberg. haidi: thank you. officials in washington and beijing are indicating progress is being made in the trade talks, but china continues to push back on the u.s. demands. larry kudlow is optimistic of the deal. the pboc is agreeing in general. our china correspondent is with us in beijing. let's start with you. what have the chinese side been
saying? tom: we heard from the vice pbocrce minister and the governor over the weekend, both giving press conferences. the vice commerce minister played a central role in these negotiations. one of the lines he came out with was when he was questioned about the enforcement mechanism. we spoke to the u.s. officials including the ambassador to china, he said one of the key sticking point between besides is how they define this enforcement. the u.s. sees this as essential to make sure it is a deal worth signing off on. some of the administration suggested tariffs to leverage over the chinese and enforce this deal. the vice finance minister said it would have to be two ways, not just china that would have to sign off on pledges but the u.s. as well. we heard from the governor
talking about currency. it is another central way for the u.s. they want the chinese to sign up to pledge not to devalue the currency because they are afraid that is a tool the chinese could use further down the road. the governor said yes we did discuss the currency but we reiterate our commitment post g20 and also recognize the autonomy of our own monetary policy systems. the chinese trying to frame this as a two-sided deal rather than china buckling to u.s. demands. ramy: we are hearing optimism from white house advisor larry kudlow. optimistic hear some comments from larry kudlow. he said it is likely or feasible president trump and china's president xi could meet for
assigning ceremony. he didn't rule out march, but april was a possibility. he did talk about enforcement mechanisms. he didn't drill down as much as chinese officials tom mentioned, and we didn't hear from president trump. one thing that struck me today was john bolton, national security advisor, said harsh comments about china. he spoke negatively about huawei , electronics company, and thehurian chip spying on u.s. and security threat and talked about a propaganda or public opinion campaign in the u.s. and elsewhere. there were hawkish comments that harkens back to a speech mike pence made in october -- mikeened back to a speech pence made in october. it is hard to know who is
driving the bus and whose interest will come out on top. i think president trump and larry kudlow and others would like to see a trade deal a completed -- trade deal completed. it was interesting to hear hawkish comments from bolton. economic dataent whether you look at export or inflation or credit numbers over the weekend really suggesting the slowdown continues. what do we know about the tools the pboc still has to deploy? we have heard this debate around the emphasis on fiscal stimulus in the last week, the tax cuts, so this was an opportunity for the pboc to spell out what they could do to support growth as much of the data suggests the slowdown continues.
in terms of reserve ratio cuts, because we are seeing five of those since the beginning of 2018, they have less room to implement reserve cuts. the space to maneuver is more limited than it was last year. they are refining the regime around reserve ratios to make it a more sophisticated process. in terms of liquidity to business, the pboc said it is higher than state owned enterprises. they are trying to tackle that. financing commissions have best conditions have improved but they have abundant liquidity. that raises concerns about debt. the total debt fell 1.5% from 250%revious year, about debt to gdp. many say entire then -- say it is higher than that. aggregate social financing and credit, that will be roughly in line with nominal gdp.
the likes of ubs saying debt to gdp could be higher for the first time since 2016, there is that concern, the pboc trying to play that down. closer to home, president trump is gearing for yet another battle over his wall. it is not over. $8.6 billion is what we are looking at. ros: it is a sense of here we go again on the budget and the wall funding. president trump is expected to ask for $8.6 billion in addition to the national emergency he declared. budget, the white house it is a statement of priorities, political manifesto. that is where the genesis of this number comes from. dead on arrival in congress but
it shows where the trump administration is coming from. i year ago the omb -- one year ago the omb asked $1.6 billion for the wall. it has come a long way. the budget -- dramatic cuts to domestic spending and more for the military. one thing that is interesting and controversial is we reported today the white house looked for u.s. growth over the next 10 years at 3%, and that is quite a bit higher than most private economists and entities are looking for. 2020 for example, the white house sees 3.1% growth, the imf 1.8%. that is a wide gap. much more to be said, but what any president asks for and what is enacted by congress, different things.
haidi: we are counting down to the start of trading, but we are startg at a look luster -- lackluster start. asx futures, u.s. stocks falling again on the back of a dismal jobs report and concerns about global growth. i am haidi stroud-watts. inocencio.ramy you are watching daybreak australia. stocks capped off their worst
week of the year after data showed american hiring is the weakest in more than a year. the new stroke the s&p 500 to .lose near a low let's discuss this with the chief market strategist kevin the coming from regiment -- richmond, virginia. 500 is stuck in a range. we have seen this over the past few months, 2743, so close a few days ago, hitting 2800. this really is the praise of -- this is the zeitgeist. we can't get past it. kevin: you are right. over the last six months we have seen the s&p ranged down and tested 2800 five different times. it will be tough for the s&p to get above that level unless you get a fully enforceable trade
deal with the u.s. and china. what i mean is the u.s. cannot sign a deal with china that we don't have recourse over them. we don't want to have our intellectual property stolen and intellectual property transfer of our companies. unless there is some hard details around that, i think we will continue to be in this range. we are not going to see the s&p breakout above much higher levels. think has moreu leverage, the white house or beijing? we have seen this he said, he said on both sides of the world with the people in beijing saying it needs to be reciprocal, they need to be autonomous but here in washington, dc, we have larry kudlow saying he is optimistic something will happen.
kevin: i would say it is neutral, that there is really not -- no one side has any leverage over the other. the u.s., we played our hand when we allowed to extend out the top and said we weren't going to raise any additional tariffs. at this point president trump wants to get a deal done. i don't think they are going -- the u.s. is going to force that hand. and i think that china is not going to come president -- have president xi come to the u.s. at this point both sides need one another. the chinese economy is slowing a needs to get a deal done so he can help with stimulating the economy. president trump wants to see the markets go higher because he is seasonn to the campaign
for 2020. he believes if the markets go higher, that will help his chances. right now i see it is neutral, that both sides need each other. haidi: i am wondering whether any positive outcome from trade war discussions in short term or medium-term has been priced in by the markets because you see how quickly the markets have been fading. i wonder if there is economic doom and gloom globally when you are looking at issues with brexit, the e.u., or slight data from china which you see the slowdown has worsened. this is a surprise, turning negative. it is at the levels we haven't seen since 2013 for this gauge of how much downside surprise we are getting in global economic indicators. is this what is driving sentiment more so than what we get with the detente to continue between beijing and washington?
>> at this point you are right. when you are seeing pmi come down around the world, economic surprise indices showing that global growth is slowing, the world is looking at china. at the end of the day, china is going to be the key driver of this, whether or not we start seeing these sentiment indicators turnaround. in 2018, china represented a third of global growth. if we see a trade deal done, china stimulus start to come through, a lot of these things will turn around. partner a big trading with both china and the u.s. europe is a big trading partner, but the one thing both of those places have in common is china is their number one exporter of
goods or trading partners. -- whether it is through the trade deal or stimulus, the rest of the world will turn around as well. em's andquick word on given the rally and resurgence, counterintuitive strength in the u.s. dollar and some of the risk off sentiments coming through because of global growth getting down, is the em trade over before it got started? kevin: it has been interesting. at the beginning of the year, em had a great rally. you saw the currencies take off and get off to a good start of the year. they peaked in about the end of january. to your point you have seen the dollar start to rally. where we will have an issue is if we see the dollar continued to rally.
so far em has been able to weather the storm, but if we continue to see the dollar rally the way it has, that is something that will cost us -- cause us to pull away from em and reduce the overweight we currently have in our portfolios. haidi: really appreciate your time, kevin nicholson, riverfront investment chief market strategist joining us. you can get a roundup of stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. ribers can go to dayb on your terminal. it is in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize settings so you only get news on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
you are watching daybreak australia. a make or break week for brexit and perhaps theresa may. senior tories are meeting fellow conservatives to see about the bill. reports indicate it is heading for another defeat but the leader of the house of commons told us the government is focused on winning. mostthin a few days of the -- next meaningful vote and it is vital the european union take seriously this clear proposals set out by the attorney general and brexit secretary to enable us to get this deal to pass on tuesday. certainly in the event we can get the changes in parliament and parliament will be given opportunities to support the deal, but we are focused on trying to win this vote on tuesday. that is why the government is 100% determined to seek the changes parliament wants to see. the prime minister a clear we will be having that meaningful
vote on tuesday and what we are seeking to do is make some further changes to the arrangement, to deliver on what parliament said it wanted which was alternative arrangements to the backstop. i see myself as a guardian of brexit and am determined that we deliver on the decision by the united kingdom. i feel great responsibility and so i hope to help the prime minister deliver on that. anothering towards house of commons vote. let's look at the business flash headlines. explainuntil monday to why he should not be held in contempt for his tweet about his company's performance and deliveries. andas found -- fallen afoul violated a settlement since last august.ivate he will have a hard time avoiding some kind of punishment. hna is selling its
controlling stake in a hong kong construction firm to blackstone for $900 million u.s. they will own 71% of the company after the deal goes through. hna has been paying down one of the biggest debt mountains and managed to bring $20 billion so far. ramy: a merger of deutsche bank and commerzbank as germany's largest lenders are rising out to show they can have a standalone companies. turnaround efforts are sputtering and christian is said to have ended his opposition to a deal. the management board has approved negotiations with commerzbank. up next the latest out of ethiopia, a second boeing 737 crash in the past five months is raising fresh concerns about the
9:30 a.m. in sydney. futures looking like a downside, down a quarter of 1% when trading gets underway, asian equity futures lower, lower aussie dollar. wall street had the worst year of -- week of u.s. stocks all year. i am haidi stroud-watts. inocencio.ramy you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news. sayseen: the pboc governor beijing and washington have reached consensus on many crucial issues.
the talks asd meaningful. he said the pboc is exiting daily intervention of foreign exchange market and will never use the exchange rate for competitive purposes. u.s. discussede how to respect to the other monetary authority' autonomys. we discussed how both should observe market oriented exchange mechanisms. and besides it should observe earlier commitments made at previous g20 summit's. -- summits kathleen: the central bank intervened with the dollar peg since august. the monetary authority bought $1.5 billion hong kong on friday after the currency fell in the weekend. that cut the aggregate balance to a delicate -- balance to a
decade low. it was $181 billion month ago. voting beginning in april with final results in may. 900 million people are eligible to cast ballots for 543 lower house ofe parliament. narendra modi is seen of winning but not with a majority. -- major majority. north korea has voted in a largely symbolic election for the national legislature, seen as an endorsement of the kim jong-un regime. the people were selected by the ruling workers party. despite complete control, he is seeking reelection in his district. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am kathleen hays.
this is bloomberg. haidi: let's go to -- ramy: let's go to sophie kamaruddin. sophie: futures hinting at losses in sydney and sold. .- and seoul down. the anz her asian stocks setting up for a mixed start after a rough week that cap a 10 day time frame which took $384 million out of the regional benchmark. it is a busy stretch ahead of us as markets a fifth progress on trade talks and there are key political events to navigate. looking at the trading for what to watch this week, investors will finally get a comprehensive read on how china's economy is faring. production data to thursday ahead of the congress wrapping up friday. tuesday it is factory output, expected to single weakness in
manufactured activity and cpi data the bloomberg thinks could prompt another rate cut as soon as next month. on tuesday consumer prices expected to jump for the first time in four months, rising 1.6% from a year earlier. haidi: let's get more on what we are watching. trading in asia, looking at this with adam haigh. took us through some of the potential bond trading this week. looks like we are at an inflection point. adam: some of these inflation rates this week my kind of sway the market one way or another. on tuesday consumer prices and then later on in the week producer prices and the gauge of inflation expectations grew where we are narrow is summed up in this chart. it is that cpi kind of struggle in the top section against the increase in hourly earnings that we saw friday's jobs report
looking reasonably robust. it is that followthrough. why that is not getting through to consumer prices that is giving strength to the argument people that are long treasuries kept telling investors as the month have gone by that is what is keeping yields down is you don't get followthrough to the consumer. it is clear the number we saw friday, the fastest increase in hourly earnings going back to 2009 has really been held up by what is happening in consumer prices. maybe we get some indication that is changing this week, but in short of that you would not expect any big moves in bonds until we get through to those numbers later. market, the stock numbers looked well-timed when they started buying in december before the big rally. why are they selling in a meaningful way? hindsight,enefit of
wonderful thing. it was clear corporate executives did time the market well going back to the early december timeframe. the fact you saw the big increase in the white line on the chart that shows you money coming back in, it is starting to flip back the other way. that has coincided with the start of the year, a typical timeframe when executives have shared in the -- shares in the compensation package get released. there is some automatic selling of people that want to cash those in and put the money in their bank accounts. you see that at the start of the year, start of 2018. something deeper about incremental buying and selling in the markets. you had a dip in the buyback activity, a dip in corporate executives wanting to add back into the market. the market has weakened across
the board. that has coincided with apache economic data, not just in the u.s. itself in china and the provide ecb had to fresh stimulus. it shows you the real worries about the reason of the growth going into next year. if you tricky picture bring those things together. that is white sentiment feels fragile. you are seeing a weaker start to equities. we could see change if we get interesting data coming out to move the dial, but it feels like this rally, something will have to happen. indi: adam haigh here sydney. you can check out our library are those charts he referred to, gtv on the bloomberg terminal. investigators piecing together the fatal crash of an ethiopian airlines jet over the weekend.
all 157 people on board were killed. boeing, ae by brand-new 737 max. it was the second crash in five months. a reporter has this. be mindful of the fact we are not drawing conclusions before we know the full fact of what happened. it is essentially a brand-new plane delivered four months ago and the second incident involving the 737 max, so what do we know? >> at this stage it is sketchy. the plane took off from the capital sunday morning and shortly afterward began behaving what i think is fair to call it radically. instead of making a steady climb does, afterjetline takeoff, it was sort of bouncing up and down a little bit.
twice dissented. it is very unusual. the speed was varying. by themselves either of those things were dire, but it suggests there was some sort of problem or issue. one of the pilots reported they had a problem. they haven't specified what that is. they asked to return to the airport. we have some flight tracking information for the beginning of the flight but the net -- not the last five minutes. it is hard to know if the problems persisted and what led to a crashing at a very high rate of speed into the ground. ramy: this is the second crash that has happened in the past five months. what have investigators learned from that case that could pretend or imply what happened this time around? case was on alier
r 737 max, theonai 8, the exact model. in that case there was an unusual malfunction occurred that was tricking the plane's flight computers into thinking it was in danger of losing lift off wings, and aerodynamic stall , a very dangerous thing. aning decided to make, add extra measure of safety on this and put in an automatic system that would lower the nose, which is how you solve the stall, and even to this computer thing was happening. because it was based on erroneous data that was a malfunction, that was not happening, the plane kept trying to put itself into a dive and
the pilots, more than a couple dozen times, would pull the plane back up and temporarily stop and a few seconds later, it would start again. they didn't realize there was a simple way to turn off the motor that commands this. after about two dozen times or so it does into the water before dive.ould arrest the what is interesting is the plane seem to have, as i mentioned earlier, a couple of times when it started to descend at an unusual time but obviously people are wondering could it be the same thing. it is too early to be making any conclusions like that. that every 737te was informedworld
about this earlier accident and told how to counteract this system. you would think, odds are they would be prepared for this sort of thing, suggesting it might be something different. at this point we are grasping at straws. latest there with the ethiopian airlines jet, 158 souls aboard. the latest payrolls data, wages are rising. the close look at the mixed messages. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
with a number look at interview with jay powell. let's take a look at the jobs report. very mixed visage. kathleen: it was but the thing that caught everyone's attention, payroll rose just 20,000 people in february, the smallest gain since february 2017. people say, i am showing you footage, clearing the airport in seattle in february. the pacific northwest doesn't get this kind of weather but the whole northwest was like this, people say it had to be a part of this, government shutdown, you had -- maybe that is what we are seeing. let's look at this chart. it really underscores what happened. you can see the three-month moving average for jobs was stayinground $250,000, here with this big drop, still around 100 $88,000.
how often do you go up and then down like that? not often. this guy at j.p. morgan saying this 20,000 a month seems to confirm other things, the economy slowing down. john williams said 3% 2018, it will be 2% in 2019. doesn't they get is a catastrophe but a slow down. this is one of the most positive parts of his story. wages of course were up. look at this chart, wages rising at 3.4% year over year. that is the highest we have seen since the beginning of the great recession, since 2009. unemployment has been around 4%, fell more than expected to 3.8%. that is viewed as a plus. i want to read you something our team wrote on friday. the fact hiring was weak but the
unemployment rate declined with the jobless claims have not materially increased signals labor market conditions are not materially's it -- materially rising. the thing they said was there was such a tightly because stocks sold. it is delayed reaction here now stocks are rallying, we could see better times. haidi: jay powell refusing to be drawn into the negativity of that jobs print. he essentially is saying patients, that they can stay patient. what can we expect? kathleen: people have been writing about this since friday. by the time this was out, asia might have been asleep but people, what is he going to talk about, and we got a preview when he spoke and said he can be patient. he also noted that because you have these rising downside risks
mostly from overseas to output and jobs, it argues for softer fed funds rate. we know inflation, they say that helps them wait and see. lack of tools for the fed as they hit a recession but what will they say in this interview with cbs, 60 minutes? we don't know. not just americans but a lot of traders watching this closely. kathleen hays will be watching all of that for us. joining us is a chief u.s. economist. great to have you. fair argument it is a transmission issue, we are seeing delayed effect and that the wage growth will filter through to inflation and stronger consumer spending? >> when you look at the year-over-year growth and wages, that is strong. i look at it with a three-month rate of return basis and around
the middle, late summer it has been trending around the same level, committee is higher than it has been. there is no acceleration. the economy is slowing down to 2%. if it is, that is trend, hiring will slow down. to reflect that, 2% and the federal funds rate, that means we are neutral. you want to think the glass anf-full argument, it is argument the fed does nothing in terms of the interest rates for the balance of the year at least. other what about the side? jay powell said they will announce reasonably soon their plans for the balance sheet. what are you expecting them to announce? .> the end of qt how they get there, it is a big question mark.
there is a lot of ways they can go, keep it the same pace and then in the summer like maybe september at the latest or slow it down. there are a lot of different variants. take lots of things. from the end of last year, it scared them. they felt like they needed to ease back. when you look at the short end of the yield curve, you see information like the two-year training on top of funds that tells you credit growth will start to get constrained. growth in theess economy later this year. they don't want to cut the funds rate right away. this move in what we called quantitative tightening is a halfway house sort of way to get there. the most interesting aspect is what they are going to do to keep the balance sheets study after it ends. one of the things they mentioned is they are going to take the
role off and the mortgage portion and by treasuries with it. you think about that move in and of itself which they wanted to be $20 billion a month, $240 billion a year, that is back to work qe, because that is a new buyer of treasuries in the market. that is different from the alleviation of pressure on the markets to buy what the fed is not going to buy. they come in and by about 25% of the budget deficit. this is an ease that is coming, and i think the fed kind of hopes this is enough to write -- and have themarket economy back on its feet accelerating. jenna: backdoor -- ramy: backdoor qe. you are looking at a cut in q3.
walk me through that. if we talk about the balance sheet and then this happens, talking about real stimulus. absolutely. we are not projecting -- our probability says that will happen. we are not yet saying it will but it will. the economy is slowing down. momentum is. there is no guarantee once the economy, any momentum slows, that it will stop in that range which is what they would like to see. you have a slow economy in china, overseas risks that have been mentioned and you really haven't seen the negative impact which start to -- started the end of the fourth quarter in terms of what asset markets are signaling. is that if they continue to see slow growth out of the second quarter going into the third, they will take -- put the table with
extra 25 basis points. -- theyreally doesn't don't want a recession to start. if it does, they will be back at a zero funds rate and doing full-fledged qe in a heartbeat. they are closer to zero then rates suggest. ramy: we will have to leave it there. thank you for coming on the show. more ahead on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪
was up 38,000 ounces of gold, 76 million pounds of copper. ramy: nvidia is nearing a deal with this is really chipmaker to accelerate the flow of information around data centers. this could be announced monday with a value of just under $6 billion. nvidia is the leading bidder in the race ahead of rivals including intel. no decision has been made. vietnamese airline is going to start service to japan, south korea. u.s.also want to go to the next year. they plan to double the mystic operations from 20 to 40 routes by the end of this year and hope to carry 5 million passengers. looking at the market open here in sydney, going to sophie kamaruddin. sophie: aussie futures bracing for a lower open after finding
that fighting off broad-based losses. flipping the board for some themes, keeping an eye on aussie oil players as norway's sovereign fund prepared to divest oil and gas holdings for companies like woodside petroleum. also trading to resume after undertaking their share placement as they ares capital raising plans. and this one on the radar on a report that kkr is preparing to finance bgh capitals takeover of the education services provider. aspen shares are temporarily halted in light of its announcement to buy a san francisco-based figure for a consideration of $175 million. for daybreaks it australia. all the action coming up next on daybreak asia. looking at the set up getting into a few minutes away from the staggered open, looking like a
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>> a very good morning. australian markets have just opened for trade. >> good evening from new york. sophie: welcome to daybreak asia. haidi: our top stories, making progress. china cyst trade talks are moving forward with meaningful discussions and general agreement. theresa may facing another difficult week. her brexit deal is expected to fail