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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  March 10, 2019 10:00pm-12:00am EDT

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jay powell had food for thought on friday with those payroll numbers. maybe thinking about cutting, not raising. horrible shocker. recovery on american markets. if you were wrong, you are on the wrong side of things. david: it has picked up a little when china opened up. you compared to 90 minutes back when it was only japan and australia. hong kong opened up and has listed some of these markets. asking if thee rally was showing signs of fatigue. it seems like we have a mixed picture to start our monday morning. last week was a pretty torrid one. worst week when it came to global equities since december. it was the china story that made it worse with the csi 300 drop of 4%. we have recovered, but slightly by a half of 1% for your large-cap this morning. we did see a turnaround as dave mentioned. hong kong is also up a fourth of
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1%. dollar is stronger. that is one thing to keep in mind. we are seeing more resilient in some of these. they are pretty strong related trade currencies like the south orean won anti-bot -- and thai baht. there seems to be pushing back here, including on any kind of currency claws into any kind of trade agreement. let's see what we are seeing in terms of the equity rally. our mliv team question has been, how much longer can traders really ignore the data that we have seen? whether it is out of the u.s., china as well. we had those south korean exports. interesting, you will see emerging-market asia shares, the msci. we have climbed and recovered about 17, or half of the 17%
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loss that we saw in 2018. despite the fact that the citi offurprise indexes falling a cliff. is this rally getting ahead of the fundamentals? it will be interesting to see. these gains have been driven by the trade optimism by the fact that we have a dovish turn from jay powell. we will see if it will last. the four we go, let's look at your airlines. the top story we have been talking about what the tragic crash involving the ethiopian airlines 737 max. we have learned that china is said to be grounding those planes, all of its 737 max. here is what we are seeing in terms of the market impact very china southern down from 1%. the rest is still in the green. 10id: as you mentioned, minutes ago we talked to some sources. they are saying the aviation regulators grounded the planes. c, do know now that the sasa
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that is the government body that oversees state own assets, i am not sure if that is the aviation regulator, but it has confirmed all boeing 737 max has been grounded. the supervisory commission oversees all state own assets. the airlines generally are state-owned in china. max'sestic boeing 737 have been grounded. that is a major first step. i am saying first because there could be other. came in airlines have already announced that they have max's.d two of their 737 this following the tragic crash in ethiopia of the ethiopian 737 max that was just delivered to that airline in november. -- this isrica africa's most consistently profitable airline.
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it has a moderate and young fleet. a350's and the latest generation of 737 max's. what makes us all the more fact that thishe is the second crash of this model of airplane, brand-new airplane in five months. the last one was october 29 in indonesia. lie in air. we will get into reasons for that and if there are parallels. let's talk about the china grounding quickly. we can see from the chart that we made up, china southern is the biggest order of this order. , 50 have been order, 34 more. shenzhen, along with icbc leasing. this is a model that boeing gets 20% of its sales from china. it is a major, major, major
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aircraft for china. the most profitable commercial aircraft ever built. built a finishing center, what is called a completion and delivery center outside of shanghai. it opened in december to cater to the china market. big blow for boeing. they have 24 of these planes and 56 on order. but what do we know from that lion air crash last year? this is key because everybody is drawing parallels. where -- what do we know about that? stephen: in the lion investigation, and the faa was about to put out a fixed wing process. they have new content and the takes theat basically plane to a dive if it indicates that the plane is stalling. there with air crash
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sensory reading problems that unusually into dive. the pilot thought it a dozen times before the pilots were overcome -- fought it a dozen times before the pilots were overcome. do not want to speculate that this is the same thing. directives were put out to all 737 max pilots around the world. there is an easy off switch in the cockpit. the only parallel is a brand-new aircraft crashing within minutes of takeoff. rishaad: we will have more on this story as the day progresses great stephen engle, our chief north asia correspondent. let's get to the latest of a massive week for the british prime minister. bra: theresa may enters a potentially divining week with report saying she has lost the backing of all but to offer cabinet. members have discussed whether she should resign, and some say that could happen this week if
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the labour party wins a new vote of confidence. the brexit bill faces heavy defeat on tuesday after her appeal form concession for the eu fell on deaf ears in brussels. >> the prime minister's mission agreementto get the and declaration through to vote on tuesday, then we can move on to the agreement bill. which offers more opportunities for colleagues to scrutinize the arrangements, to potentially amend how we view this. it just gives them extra opportunity. announced theas dates for the upcoming election, with the bowdoin beginning in april, and the final results in may. around 900 million people are eligible to cast ballots for 543 lawmakers in the lower house of parliament. prime minister modi's wedding the most seats but short of an overall majority. his movement has lost support about concern on the economy and jobs.
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north korea has voted in a largely symbolic election for the national legislator. the election is seen as an endorsement of the kim jung-un regime. voters were offered a state-sponsored candidate, selected by the ruling korean party. kim jong-un is the most prominent candidate. he is seeking reelection in his district. . japan says tokyo district court is expected to deny a request from carlos ghosn to attend a board meeting. he said he made the request to his lawyers after being released last week. his freedom includes the condition that he seeks court permission before having contact with certain people connected with his case. day onnews, 24 hours a air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. david: still ahead on the program, we will discuss the outlook for credit ratings among
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emerging markets in the region. growth about global slowdown and the fed reiterating its patients. slammed the door shut for trading. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: we are back watching beijing indicating progress in trade talks. push: china continues to back at some of these u.s. evidence, especially when it comes to their currency. >> we have asked for currency stability, no manipulation. number two, we have asked for greater transparency. transparency in this case means, we would like to know, as quickly as possible, any currency interventions undertaken by china.
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china and the u.s. discussed how to respect the other monetary authorities autonomy in monetary policy. secondly, the two sides discussed how both should observe market oriented exchange rate mechanisms. thirdly, the two sides should observe earlier commitments made at previous g20 summits. let's look at all of this, the major implications with our mliv strategist. mark, a couple of questions when it comes to the currency. do we find ourselves in a situation where, if the chinese do let the currency go, so to speak, and it weakens, should the u.s. step in and say, wait a minute, we should have intervened. ? what china is trying to do, he wants to frame any discussion about currencies within the g20 context.
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g20 meetings have gone out of their way for a few years to try to talk about currencies within the framework of a global context. that involves multiple partners, all the developed countries, all the major players in foreign exchange. what china wants to avoid is any kind of one-sided agreement between itself and the united states, which obviously would be skewed in favor of the united states. it would mean that china has to keep the yuan strong, and it would not be allowed to do anything to make it weaker. it wants to bring the argument back to the g20 framework, and then they can talk about all the currencies within a broader context where it -- context. china is carefully trying to not get itself isolated in a one-to-one fight with the united states over the currency. that would probably skew the argument towards an , andessarily strong yuan it would be difficult to come
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back from that position. rishaad: let's have a look at the hong kong dollar under pressure again, with the hong kong monetary authority coming to the market. this has other implications, which do not reflect what is going on in the fx market. mark: absolutely. the ford curve is where the action is. a lot of people do not even participate in the stock market because there is greatly to -- great liquidity to do a lot of traits with its curve trades. a lot of people use the hong kong dollar ford market, which is different between the hong kong markets dollar rates. you can see that curve can get exaggerated in terms of the difference between your hong kong rates falling below the u.s. rates. which they have been doing. why thee good reasons hong kong rates have been weak. the property market in hong kong
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has been softer. hong kong growth has been week off the back of china. the incentive is to maintain a lot of liquidity in the short-term money marketing in hong kong. that weakens the hong kong dollar. when you have u.s. rates relatively high by global standards, and the fed effectively on a pause, it makes the u.s. dollar conversely much more attractive. we go through this scenario, which we had in august of last year, hong kong dollar weakens, hk has to defend it, and liquidity dries up in the market, and the hong kong dollar recovers a little bit. this could go on for some time. at the moment, there is no particular reason for the hkma to allow the hong kong rates to go higher than the u.s. rates. the economy is not that great. we will probably go through this scenario where they have to intervene to defend the hong kong dollar. mark cranfield, our mliv strategist. you can follow more on the story
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and the topix we just talked about. takes you tov this. squirrel up, scroll down, look at the major factors that might be influencing where your money and assets are going at this point in time. rishaad: our next guest says policy targets underline at the npc's underscore the challenges by the government. mpc, second week. what is the narrative done in terms of moving the dial from your perspective? a have beents announced so far, and the meeting is not over yet, we will see what comes, but it is in line with our expectations when we affirmed china's -- at place.r at a we know growth was slowing. we anticipated further easing. getting it is like ready for the economic -- that must have worried you? >> that is why it highlighted
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the trade-off. the authorities still regard their growth target as paramount. it lowered it, which is a healthy sign. they accept the desk sign that they accept the growth is slowing -- a sign that they accept the growth is slowing. even a 6.5% will be a challenge with all of the downward growth momentum. where does the stimulus stop? does it reach a point where it simply exacerbates leverage and imbalances the economy? anticipate, do not given the signals the authorities have sent, but something we will watch carefully. david: part of the report i have is, when you say the general government debt level, 48% of gdp, that is central government. is generalat government, local, and on balance sheet local. contingent liabilities are larger. david: how do you adjust for
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that when you have corporate debt state lengthed? stephen: what we have said is, we see more room for on balance sheet transparent fiscal stimulus. ramping up fiscal stimulus and transport to the extent that it is going to be financed by special bonds of local governments. btose are counted in the de that we monitor. bringing in that contingent liability type debt engie's healthy transparency and we have seen more room for that. talkingwe were just about the amount of fiscal stimulus that is coming. the mention it is 2.8%, budget deficit, but they are thinking it is more. if you factor in the local bond issuance and fiscal accounting. it is it -- is it more 5%? stephen: we do think it will be substantially more than just the tax cuts i have been an
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announced just by way of comparison. our own projection for central government deficit, or general government deficit in 2019 is closer to 4.5% of gdp. that is relative to the 2.8% that is on paper. we do think that fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing is larger than on paper. rishaad: that brings us nicely to, how does this play out? they can throw the kitchen sink at it, which has been their previous ammo. o.t we do not -- previous m but we don't have that anymore. stephen: this is the challenge. we have long said that they adhere to these high and unrealistically high growth targets as medium-term and fundamental growth is slowing, and prop up the economy through the old infrastructure
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nontransparent contingent liability type stimulus. that could put downward pressure on the rating. that is something we will watch for. they have signaled very clearly that they want to avoid a flood of stimulus. they have not cut benchmark policy rates. our baseline is that the key policy rates where they are. that assumption may get tested through the year because they have hinted they might do that. rishaad: they said there is very limited more for more rrr cuts. they will need to reform the economy. they will need to continue the rebalancing effort and except gradually growing debt targets. our view of sustainable growth rate is closer to 5.5%. david: if you assume that growth is 6%, then you should get a little bit. --r output gets would give output gaps would give you some inflationary pressure. we are not seeing that. does that say that growth is below 5.5% on the ground? officialwe accept the
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figures for what they are, but we are conscious that growth momentum has weakened sharply, perhaps lower than some of these quarterly gdp numbers are showing. we are alarmed in a sense of how quickly imports have weakened. infrastructure investment. we could say the growth has slowed by more than we might have expected at this stage. we will be watching carefully for the revolution as it comes at the trade tension with the u.s. there is suppressing sentiment in growth momentum. yvonne: we just had this jay powell interview and talking about patience. it seems like banks are falling in line with the dovish tilt. does that extend the cycle? many of it does give the emerging markets, including china, a bit of breathing space. we thought this year was setting up for continued fed rate hikes.
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obviously that assumption is being reviewed. we are probably not going to see the three rate hikes out of the fed that we anticipated. it gives an emerging markets a bit of a rest. they were tested last year. economies like india and indonesia did a lot to shore out there external resistance. it helps in the short run, but i think the concern is really the downward trend in global growth. how much will that hit exports in this export oriented region? david: bond markets have started pricing in cuts. stephen, always a pleasure. head of sovereign ratings. lots more coming up. you just have to wait for all of that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: let's have a look at the business flash headlines. hna is is to stash -- that has 9blackstone million u.s. dollars. blackstone will on the more than 71% of the company after the deal goes through. assets been uploading and has raised about 20 billion u.s. dollars so far. of deutschetgagor bank -- a merger of deutsche bank and commerzbank is happening. they are trying to show that they can grow a standalone company. the two are intensifying these talks as their turnaround efforts and deutsche ceo is said to have ended his opposition to a deal. we are told which is management board has approved negotiating with commerzbank. vietnam's bamboo
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airways is heading overseas, starting international flights with routes to singapore and south korea. it will launch direct services to the u.s. next year. a are buying new planes from boeing. they have domestic operations from 20 to 40 by the end of the year. they are hoping to have 5 million passengers. yvonne: just want to recap our minds coming out of china. we have learned that regulators there are going to be grounding -- domestic 01737 max planes 737stic going 7 -- boeing max planes. is also talking a little bit more about the 737 eight jet that they grounded to check safety. ac will resume flying those jets after confirm safety. more lines coming through from china -- from thailand. they say there are no plans to
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ground boeing 737 max games of the- max planes out ethiopia crash. we will have more coming up. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.
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♪ >> 1029 in hong kong. i'm debra mao with the first word headlines. china has officially grounded the boeing 737 on the mainland, involving 96 planes operated by domestic carriers. this comes after an ethiopian airlines flight came down soon after leaving office obama, killing everyone on board. it crashed in indonesia in october as well. cayman airways has suspended both jets, while india is calling for more information from boeing. meanwhile, china has no plans to ground the plane, in singapore airlines says the air unit is operating normally. the pboc governor says beijing and washington has reached consensus on many crucial issues.
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the pboc he says has basically exited intervention in the foreign exchange market and will never use the exchange market for competitive purposes. china and the u.s. know how to respect the other monetary authorities in monetary policy. secondly, the two sides discussed how both should observe market oriented exchange rate mechanisms. should, the two sides observe earlier commitments made at previous g20 summits. said chairman jay powell has repeated that interest rates can remain on hold as policymakers watch evolving economic conditions. he told cbs inflation is muted, and the fomc thinks inflation is appropriate. he reiterated his patient mantra, saying the fed is looking at growth, job numbers, and inflation as it considers
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its next move. he also said he's watching china, europe, and brexit. >> patient means that we don't feel any hurry to change our interest rate policy. what has happened in the last 90 we have seen increasing evidence of the global economy slowing down, although our own economy has continued to perform well. >> president trump is expected to present his 2020 budget later monday, and he is expected to ask congress for next ready $.6 billion to help pay for the wall on the mexican border. it will assume the u.s. economy continues to expand briskly while many forecasters expected to slow. -- the democrats won control of the house like steer. global news, 24 hours a day and at @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm debra mao. this is bloomberg. ♪ yearshas been almost four
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since china's ethnic $5 trillion stock market collapse. chinese policymakers pointed the anger at qantas funds. >> exacerbating a lot of the moves that to place. markets are doing better in beijing is not expected to lift those curves on automated trading. we can discuss the implication. from east asset management in hong kong joins us here. very nice to see you. what are you hearing? what is it going to be -- when can you start fleeing? >> we are actually very positive about risk. think it is going to the investment directly. andill improve liquidity help build long-term bull markets. >> the conditions in which it
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got banned still surely exist. what has changed? in 2015, there was excessive leverage funding. over the past two years, the regulators have put very strict control. they think it has already been resolved. >> and does it change the way you do things? there is an overlap between overall activity and the type of activity that they don't want to come back into this market. has that affected your strategy and the way you operate? >> no. we have been really prepared for , there have been butrictions in the past
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with this we expect the return will be better with high trading and low costs. there will be more money flows to this area, maybe just to give you a number, in china and represents only 5% compared to 90% in the state. in that area, they think we will have plenty of time, more return opportunities. saying it will be one of the reasons why we will see a bull market. how so? what sort of strategies? we have medium to long-term sector models, we have semi-high-frequency strategies.
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all of these complement each other and have low correlation. all of it actively requires a function of trading so that they can perform smoothly. >> looking at some of the things -- it saysd to do here you have to hire six traders to handle projections that could have been done by one person. now that it is coming back have you fired those asked traders? how are you preparing for this? >> you can imagine larger , but we have been doing research, obviously looking like the other traders to prepare for such an event. all the market changes are very positive, it is going through
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not only a benefit but the slumps, such as those foreign investors, and with this long-term money blowing into the market, the market in turn benefits. basically we are very positive. >> this means a whole gamut of different asset classes, or what should we think about? >> actually the focus is on equities. >> so what are you going to do differently, is my point? from other people? the danger is everyone does the same thing. everybody chases the same thing. >> we always do what we do. we have a research team and we technology and
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we are fully prepared for this kind of event. the market now, sentiment is pretty strong. example, there were two funds in 2017. both of them have achieved 20%. >> how do they do in 2018? >> similarly. outside of 10%. >> interesting. 2018 was very good. it can change, and regulators have told us that it is expected to get listed. what are you hearing? i'm sure you have had conversations with your contacts in china. should we expect the band to be lifted over the next -- before may? what do you know? >> mostly i would say the ban will be lifted, and what i heard is that most people are
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prepared, they prepare to build more strategy, which is what we have been doing over the last few years. i think more will come, more deregulation such as the launch of new index futures, more options, and it will help the quant strategy guide. >> speaking of making more money, final question, you mentioned 20% of the market. how do you outperform a market that sometimes doesn't make sense? >> we have seen this before. basically we have been in this market for over a decade. we have seen bear market is bull market. we feel this investment into our system, although it can be adapted for changes. >> thank you. we will get the go-ahead for the green light.
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coming up on the program, how china's 2019 gdp target ensures growth. with theive one-on-one chair of jpmorgan investment banking china, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> welcome back. china lowered its gdp chart before 2019 growth targets, in a move that the former chair of jpmorgan'zs investment banking arm in china ensures sustainable growth. the international founder and chair's book with me exclusively at a forum in shanghai last week. slowdown is more policy driven, top-down driven,
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and china wants to slow it down so that they can have more sustainable growth going forward. china right now is very different from 10 years ago, 30 years ago. we are talking about $13 trillion usd, $14 trillion usd economy. it can be sustained at 5% growth, that's very good growth in terms of the incremental. in the base is so high right now. you don't want to have such a large economy and really high growth rate, and mostly leverage driven -- that's not sustainable. >> in your view, do you think the current exchange rate -- is that fair value? maybe even overvalued? i think it is probably very close to fair value.
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if china can sustain the growth at a good quality level, long-term, china needs to make a successful transition in terms of the economic model. if they can do that, they can still have some long appreciate. >> that was my exclusive interview with the founder and chair in shanghai last week. >> let's get going with the latest business flash headlines. elon musk has a delayed turn monday on why he shouldn't be held in contempt for his tweet about his company's performance and delivery. violators --that taking tesla private tweet last august. he says he will have a hard time avoiding some kind of punishment. >> nvidia is said to be nearing
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a deal to buy in is really chipmaker. sources say the agreement could be announced later monday with the value of under $6 billion. we are also told it is the ,eading better in the race although no final decision has been made. millionest mining, $806 for of mining deal in canada. they will acquire 70% interest in british columbia. in january, they forecast 2019 production of up to 38,000 ounces of gold and 6 million pounds of copper. >> lots more coming up. topsy-turvy start to the week, got strong and pushing down. we'll get to the market update, next. this is bloomberg.
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♪ let's get a check on japan during the lunch break, focusing on this hitachi story. kyoto news reporting that hitachi is weighing the sale of its entire's take in its listed unit of hitachi chemical.
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sales have been estimated at around ¥300 billion overall. hitachi declined to comment about the deal, but we do see it on traded with a glut of why orders. some of these listed units are searching on the potential of this news. 5%.chi itself is up some express is surging today in shenzhen after alibaba is taking a stake in the company. 2%.is up more than it was beating even the highest of estimates. but there has been some controversy to rehire retired workers at a lower salary and position. i'm not sure how that will china mobile and china
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jeffriestocks here, upgrading china mobile here to a buy. their price target implies a 20% upside from where we are at the moment. they are mentioning, though, that the build will expand in 2020, but perhaps the market is stations are still a little too high. they mentioned about the paper during the mbc, that slashed 5g spending estimates from what we saw previously, perhaps a little more height than what we are expecting, and we are seeing the stoxx up quite a bit. counting down to the open to the session in mumbai. let's take a look at what to look out for. our reporter is standing by. how are things shaping up? well, as we enter the trade it looks like a more muted stock
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last week. 2.2% game coming on the back of the first half of the week was extremely exciting, and the slightly more defensive names started to pull back. it is going to be a focus on the banks and broader market performance, which has caught the eyeballs of all the brokerages, which are suggesting cheaper valuation as being good entry points. so while the nifty is hovering at the 11,000 mark, most analysts are suggesting a resistance at 11,100. the market has put the range between 11,000 and 11,600 on the index. >> what has been going on with the state bank of india? are they planning to link some pricing decisions, the savings deposit? are we looking at any reaction? let us know about the interaction of the stock. >> yeah.
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r.b.i. made a recommendation that most of the banks linking their deposit a low rates to extend the benchmark. they have taken a preemptive action and linked cash deposits to the record rate of the r.b.i., also talking about the cash deposit. move will nowoint affect cash deposit as well by 25 basis points. benchmark -- the stock is a sentimental positive, but don't expect it to move. >> ok, thank you so much. an hour until the open of the cash markets in india. in the meantime, let's have a look at china and health care. the leading chinese online pharmacy and health service
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saysder listed in the u.s. drug price performances were cut in the industry, convenient for customers. let's go to david at the wharton global forum. we are a very transparent and highly efficient channel for dry distribution, to have online stores with150,000 their distribution. you can see that we are highly trans parent. this is why we are highly sought after. like -- >> especially after our ipo, companies like pfizer, eli
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lilly, stephanie johnson, all these companies love to work with us, because we are fully combined, and we have high-efficiency transparency. you think is the biggest change that will happen, that you think might happen, to the chinese health care industry? what is one trend that you are confident that will remain in tact? >> we will have much more convenient of seeing doctors, and the costs of getting medication will be lowered drastically, all different efforts. people can go to a half though or online must at all on their mobile devices, monitoring vital signs. a lot of convenience will be there and a lot of cost will be cut.
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that was my exclusive interview with the 111 co-founder. >> battle of the charts. -- crosses that reporter cross asset reporter will be against the energy reporter. you can access their charts on the bloomberg by running that function on the bottom of your screen. >> the sword against the shield. andrea, go for it. >> hi, there. my chart shows the close correlation between ages trade weighted index in the shanghai composite index. the reason we are looking at that is because it may hold some clues as to the direction of the aussie dollar, which has come under pressure this year, as we know, and as you can see from the panel on the bottom. back to the top, the relationship between the itw i, a measure of the aussie against the basket of currencies, broke
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down in february. if you remember, that is when chinese shares started to rally on hopes that chinese government stimulus will boost growth. that also coincided with headwinds surfacing in australia, that have been weighing on the australian dollar, which is why you have wti going down. if there is support going for the aussie dollar going forward, was the chinese stimulus measures come through later in the year? that is something bank of america believes. for the next clues on how the chinese economy is faring, we have chinese data later this week, we have investment credit and investment production. it is important to point out that the aussie dollar has found support around 70. we look at that data for any clues and it may be with the aussie dollar needs to have higher. stephen, this is a tall order
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to beat that one. >> ok. well i'm here to talk about decoupling, and not the angelina jolie and brad pitt decoupling. i'm talking about crude and liquefied natural gas. when you talk about these two, lng since the 1960's has been linked to crude oil. that has been a constant in this industry. let me tell you about it. but what has happened recently is liquefied natural gas, there have been so many do importers index orders, that there is more liquidity, and it is fighting just since november and december with the decoupling in the prices, because there is a new jkm liquidity and benchmark they can use instead of using crude to price liquefied natural gas. you can see the , just in the last month or two, has dropped, in the price of crude has gone up, showing that
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perhaps we are at a moment where lng and crude are decoupling. >> in a lot of ways, both are about decoupling, as well. andrea.o go with that's my vote. rish also goes for andrea. completely unanimous [laughter] horrid too anything yourself. you can have a look at the charts using g tv . ♪
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♪ >> it is almost 11:00 here in singapore, 8:00 a.m. in mumbai. i'm juliette saly. >> i'm rishaad salamat. we are entering the last hour of the morning session in hong kong. this is a look at our top stories. another crashbout involving the 737. china has grounded the plane across the country. >> we are talking trade. beijing says negotiations are moving forward, with meaningful discussions and general agreement. >> and jay powell sticks to his patients mantra, saying he is watching conditions at home and abroad, and that the fed is in no rush to raise interest rates. this is bloomberg markets.
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♪ >> a little bit of a mixed start of the trading week. asian stocks joined the global selloff, having the worst week so far this year. a little bit of upside in the csi 300, but the index fell 4% on friday. andasx 200 under pressure, we are seeing upside in hong kong, watching the hong kong dollar. hong kong facing the likelihood of rising borrowing costs after the central bank stepped in. we are watching a slew of other data coming out of china as well.
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this is the position at the nifty, down on the singapore has a stable rupee and the 10 year yields are pretty much unchanged. one i will be on the announcement of the election. that's the deal for the general election. let's get to a man who has been patient, the first word news with debra mao. >> fed chairman jay powell has repeated that interest rates can remain on hold as policymakers watch evolving economic conditions. he told cbs inflation is needed and the fomc thinks policy is at an appropriate place. he reiterated his patient mantra, saying the fed is looking at growth, job numbers, and inflation as it considers its next move. he also said he's watching china, europe, and brexit. >> patience means that we don't feel any hurry to change our
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interest rate policies. what has happened in the last 90 have seen is that we an increasing of the global economy slowdown although our own has continued to perform well. >> the pboc governor says aging in washington have reached consensus on many crucial issues. he has been part of the chinese team of the trade talks, and describes them is very meaningful. he says the pboc has basically exited daily intervention in the foreign exchange market and will never use the exchange rate for competitive purposes. china and the u.s. learn how to risk asked the other monetary authority autonomy and monetary policy. secondly the two sides discussed how both should observe market oriented exchange rate mechanisms. thirdly, the two sides should observe earlier commitments made at previous g20 summits. >> china's credit growth slowed
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in february after a seasonal surge in january. the first two months of the year signal continued recovery in the credit supply. the pboc says aggregate financing topped $105 billion last month, compared with forecast is almost twice as much, well money supply gained 8%, matching its slowest ever expansion. global news, 24 hours a day and at @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm debra mao. this is bloomberg. regulators grounding all boeing 737 max aircrafts after the second fatal crash involving that model in five. all 157 people on the flight were killed when the plane came down soon after leaving addis ababa. we are following the developments. what do we know at this stage? >> the latest in the last hour was that we got confirmation
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from this date own asset supervisory commission, that they are going to be grounding all domestic flights that involves that particular model, the boeing 737 max-8. there are 96 of them, according to the statement, a number of different airlines of this fairly new aircraft, and it goes on and on. and the chinarder development bank has seven orders and one delivery. it is the most important airplane of the lineup without a doubt. if not the most commercially viable and profitable commercial aircraft in the history of aviation. the 737 program accounts for one third of operating profit at boeing, 30 billion dollars in annual revenue. factory output is expected to
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increase. boeing,ry important to this is a significant move by china. cayman airlines has also grounded, and we're hearing from others, watching this investigation into the tragic accident that claimed 157 lives. >> and this comes months after the crash of another 737 max. what do you think investigators have learned from that? moreis is why this is even pressing. just five months ago, october 29, is when that happened in indonesia. that surrounded -- the investigation surrounded a software addition to the cockpit in the new versions of the 737 airplane, that caused what the airplane -- dipped it snows quite suddenly and rapidly.
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the pilots had not been briefed on that, the pilots had been briefed on the procedure to prevent stalling, and there were some unusual meetings that led to the malfunction. conclusions to draw but the only similarity is brand-new aircraft, crashing within minutes of take off. >> thanks for that. our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle. we will revisit that story as we get more detail on it. still ahead, a rough road for carmakers. vehicle sales falling for a ninth consecutive month. discussing the outlook for the next route. china reaches consensus with the u.s. on crucial issues in trade talks. beijing is also pushing back against some of washington's demands. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ as beijing governor and washington have reached consensus on many crucial issues. they have been part of the chinese team of the trade talks and described them as very meaning. he says the pboc has basic we exited daily intervention in the foreign exchange market and will never use the exchange rate for competitive purposes. discussednd the u.s. how to respect the other monetary authorities autonomy in monetary policy. secondly, the two sides discussed how both should observe market oriented exchange rate mechanism. thirdly, the two sides should observe earlier commitments made at previous g20 summits. >> let's get more on this with
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our china correspondent, tom mackenzie, in beijing. what else have chinese officials been saying about these trade talks? >> well, it was interesting. the characterization of the discussions about the currency and fx regime, quite different to the one put out by the likes of steve mnuchin, who described it as the strongest deal on the yuan they had ever seen. obviously china trying to show this is a two-sided agreement, talking about the fact that they will continue to move toward those discussions and stick to the agreement in terms of not depreciating the currency and not trying to give it an advantage. alsorms of what we heard, trying to characterize talks as balanced, rather than the u.s. pressuring china. the enforcement mechanism has been pretty clear that it's a sticking point, and he said any enforcement mechanism for this trade deal would have to be a
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two-way enforcement deal that would have to be fair in the wall, and what that means the terms of china's demand from the u.s. it is not clear. some of this may be signaling to the domestic audience, because the national people's congress is focused on the domestic audience, but it underlines that there is still some fundamental disagreement about these key sticking point. still more work to be done. he also discussed with the central bank and you to support growth. he suggested that in terms of rrr cuts, there may be room for the central bank. we are seeing five reserve ratio cap since 2015. he still expects the central bank to cut reserve ratios at least once or potentially twice this year. take a listen. >> we expect the pboc to cut the reserve requirement ratio by another 2% for the rest of the year, just to keep the monetary conditions stable and not
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loosening monetary policy. pboc also stressing that their focus was ensuring that the financial conditions for the private vector were still a priority for them, and they said financial conditions have improved, but they stood ready for labonte it liquidity. >> all right. tom mackenzie stays with us. let's bring in the chief macro strategist for asia at deutsche bank, listening to all that tom was saying and what we heard from the pboc. still a lot of noise remains. what is your view in terms of whether or not we will see a resolution? >> i think there's a lot of noise and you can affect the noise until we actually get somewhere on the deal, but i would still argue that a direction of travel is encouraging. clearly both sides are showing at the very latest dealing with
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trade issues and nontrade issues and we know nontrade issues are more contentious, but if anything i would argue the debate is shifting to one where it is no longer necessarily -- it's really about the possibility of a meaningful deal --ch might even include >> well he have that going, we also have mixed data coming through globally and from china. we did have that surge in exports and then epi data showing inflation. how are you reading what we are being? >> the cycle is clearly slowing down and i think the question about china and for the larger the of the world -- willingness of policymakers is increasingly looking like 2016.
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china is deleveraging it which could push the more synchronized turn. i think it reinforces the point that they are not going very quickly, they want to be more it tellsd, but i think us we are certainly moving in the direction of easing monetarily, fiscally, and a draw line. are you concerned about what we are seeing in terms of factory prices? 0.1% to get in february. we are heading toward deflation, and that will impact corporate profits. >> absolutely. we are at this stage of the cycle -- the sentiment has obviously -- everything is happening around trade and that is probably an exaggerated push lower are a lot of the data -- you can see that in terms of the
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numbers. point andely are at a that is what is increasingly , about thelected need and the urgent the for taking policy together. throughve news coming from the head of the intellectual property office in china. that's him talking. we just got him making remarks about intellectual property and how they can speed up trademark examination, that would be remarkably quick, the examination and efficient the improving. tell me, how will this he received in these trade talks? i pr is one of the big, contentious issues.
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>> the direction of travel is very encouraging. best inl try for the how much we can negotiate -- intellectual property is one very big point of contention so any movement towards the middle from what they ask on the u.s. side, i think the key question is that are we really only looking at extend and pretend, or are we looking at something more substantial? a lot of what we are hearing is moving in that direction. >> we will talk more about the fed from deutsche bank. thanks to tom mackenzie, our chief china correspondent. we are very closely watching we areash that happened,
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hearing from southwest which just tweeted that they have been in contact with boeing and will stay close to the investigation as it progresses. they say southwest operates 31 aircraft, and they remain confident in the safety and airworthiness of the fleet, saying they are in contact with boeing and will stay close to the pro. plenty more to come here on markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> fed chair jerome powell says interest rates can remain on hold as policymakers wait to see how conditions evolve. in an interview he said there's no clear time limit, and stressed patience. we don't feelans
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any hurry to change our interest-rate policy. what has happened in the last 90 or so days is that we have seen increasing evidence of the global economy slowing down, although our own economy has continued to perform well. patience cropped up with all sorts of members of the fomc. let's get to some your gold, still with us. patients is one thing, but that jobs report on friday -- surely it said a few alarm bells off. >> i wouldn't read too much into it. yes, the headline number is a miss for sure, but look at the overall direction. wage earnings are going higher, income growth, so forth. i don't think it supports that have --a fed, that we
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, policyactually justify >> how does it fit into a global there does of slowing growth in place, particularly in if onlythrough very few bullets in the chamber into a slow down or even into recession? >> the more relevant question is not so much about the fed, but how the rest of the world tackles its own policy. to be fair, the fed going on hold for the for seeable future gives more space. policymakers need to be able to deal with their own domestic policies.
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--hink there is very clearly i think it affords more space. the question for a lot of central banks, and you could argue for europe in particular, is about whether and how close we are to maxing out on policy, and if they have the space to deal with the next downturn. that is probably what will differentiate. >> that is what the chair was saying, that the major risks are from outside. when you look at some of the markets in asia and in emerging do you see that is more of a path, that we will see more aggressive moves? >> we are at a point with a lot of these central banks, with the fed going on hold, it brings a little more space to rebound where they are. improvements to not
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jump quickly because we all know we seerency, coming in, that with the indonesians and the filipinos, clearly talking about the liquidity. r.b.i. has already cut rates. so certainly that is where we are moving to. how quickly we actually get there, and given the uncertainty, we still actually have more coming up. i think it means that it will be a slow move. >> so how does that play out in fixed income? >> we are living in a world of very low volatility. it's a cross currency market and interest-rate market. there are certain places like
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india -- not a huge amount of deviation, but i would argue you still need to carry decent. >> and maybe some cash under the market. what about in terms of where you see the dollar going? dollarview is that the has topped out. off, wedollar to come actually need a good candidate to take the other side of that. i still think for the euro, the relative balance situation, the ownership of assets is still very supportive for the euro, but we are at a point where policy perceptions shift in the ecb, getting more dovish. that's the big issue with the dollar. for the dollar, you weaken. you require there to be some of the biggest candidates. >> we will continue to look for
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that. thanks again for your time. the chief macro strategist for asia from deutsche bank with me in singapore. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. shares in hong kong construction firm hk i vim are jumping after black firm bought a controlling stake from hna. it is spending about $900 million usd to take 71% of the company and is making an offer for the remaining stock. hna has been uploading assets to pay down one of china's biggest debt mountains and has raised about $20 billion usd so far. a $600 million deal for a mine in canada. it will acquire 70% interest in imperial metals, red, gold, and copper mines in british columbia. of up tory forecast
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38,000 ounces of gold and 70 million pounds of copper. musk explainsn why he shouldn't be held in contempt for his tweet about his company's performance. he has fallen foul of the sec overstatement that they say violate an early settlement prompted by his taking tesla private tweet late august. we'll experts say he will have a hard time avoiding some kind of punishment. >> we are heading toward the lunch break in shanghai. here's what it looks like at the moment for these equities, bouncing back from that horrid session on friday. we saw the worst run we have had for global equities. that's the situation at the moment. 1000 stocks on the way up. up i about .6%.
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that lunch break in shanghai is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> almost 11:30 a.m. we are in the middle of the trading day, pretty flat on the singapore stock exchange. we saw stocks plunged by 1%, the dollar not doing much, and we are waiting for more lines coming through from singapore saying their flights will continue as good job but they are monitoring crash developments. >> looking at the markets elsewhere, the nikkei is off the a fairlythe day, fridaynt session defending the dollar, affecting
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the forward curve in some regard. .5%.sx is off by about we are having a look at what indian futures are suggesting and a flat start of the trading day. just a bit of a gain for the thisr against the rupee, is the situation with the 10 year yield, unchanged currently. wake of thisf the terrible crash in ethiopia over the weekend. yes debra mao. >> china has officially grounded the boeing 737 max on the mainland, involving 96 planes operated by domestic carriers. this comes after an ethiopian airlines plane came down soon after leaving addis ababa, killing everyone on board.
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the same model crashed in indonesia in october. cayman airways has suspended both just, while india is calling for more information from boeing. meanwhile, thailand says it has no plans to ground the plane. singapore airlines says the air unit's operating the jet normally. president trump is expected to present his 2020 budget later monday, and he's expected to ask congress for next are $8.6 billion to help pay for the wall on the mexican border. the budget will assume the u.s. economy continues to end briskly, while many independent forecasters expect growth to's low. the budget is the first since democrats won control of the house last year. theresa may enters the defining week, with a report saying she has lost the backing of all but two of her cabinet. "the daily telegraph" says members have discussed if she should resign, and that could happen this week. defeat onheavy
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tuesday after her appeal for concessions from the eu fell on deaf ears in brussels. >> we will need to support the prime minister. permission is clear, to get the agreement, voting on tuesday, and then we can move on and get an agreement, will there will be more opportunities to scrutinize the arrangement, to potentially amend how we view this. japan says that tokyo district court is six acted to deny a request from carlos ghosn to attend an upcoming these on board meeting. he made the request through his lawyers after being released on bail last week. his freedom includes the condition that he seeks the court's permission before having contact with certain people connected with this case. global news, 24 hours a day and at @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm debra mao. this is bloomberg.
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chinese carmakers are seeing declines across the board after the chinese passenger car association said retail sales for suvs, multipurpose vehicles, in minivans fell nearly 19% last month. >> the industry we will be watching. manufacturing is due later. sales are sometimes misleading and we may not have a good read on cross next for several months. not far from the tesla factory, but let's talk about the data we've got. many carmakers are prepared to forget, the first fallen over a decade. things about it, and how
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are panning out with regards to what is going on with the automotive market in china. >> thanks, rish. how many places on earth where you can say you have to go back to the 20th century to find the previous year-over-year sales decline. china has been the growth industry for the auto industry, but it is maturing and transforming quite quickly. demand for passenger cars is down significantly the first two months of this year. last year it wasn't all that bad. the marshall vehicle sales, used car transactions, electric vehicle sales, all up significantly. there is more than one story inside the numbers. tier one into your to china grew in the past year in total sales, of the slowing is happening in the lower regions of china. part of what we are seeing is a bit of an anomaly because the
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manufacturers -- they attempt to put a lot of inventory out and the first couple months you have the chinese new year. alluded, it is not -- they have so many sectors, how was luxury doing compared to what he was just referring to, the midpriced cars? >> i think the luxury or premium cars are growing still. you can say that the rich still want their toys, and there is a grounding population of upper-middle-class in china. it is not growing at the same rate it has in the past but it still grows. people are being a lot more conservative on how this end their disposable income, and that's having an impact on sales. until ad accurate read few more months, but it is safe
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to say that new car sales are now competing in a much more diverse sales. you don't have just one choice to upgrade from public transportation. you have the choice of new car, secondary owned vehicle, and reasonably good quality, as well as mobility services. the popularity of mobility service is for tens of millions of people has been very high. we know that china is also trying to raise out fossil fuel cars. what do you think these declining sales are going to have in terms of the electric vehicle maker long-term plans? do you think they are unlikely? are you worried? >> despite the struggles in the market, the one sector showing great promise is electric vehicles.
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ev's, more than 60% increase year-over-year, china is really charting a course to all electric, gasoline future. they are targeting 20 million sales by next year, still a small slice of the pie, but it is growing rather rapidly. if you want to stay relevant in the future mobility, you have to find a way to be relevant to the world's largest electric vehicle market, which is china. >> and speaking of that, you are close to that tesla factory. they have got their prices cut somewhat, but they are still going to be on the more than society coming through in china. do you think they are going to do well? 3 isll, teslas model already selling in china as roughly $73,000 to $82,000. 35, but shooting for
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they are reportedly there now. once they localize the price, it will drop. it will still be higher than the u.s. price. i think they are positioning themselves to be more aggressive. in this market they have already taken pricing steps, they are localizing, they are trying to expand their presence here. ofy have done a good job those tier one and tier two customers, but there's a long way to go. question,egs the there is also a lot of competition with ev manufacturers now catching up, perhaps even overtaking tesla in their own space. what does that lead you to believe about teslas future? >> well, china is a hypercompetitive market, and has
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been that since it started to accelerate two decades ago. getting in early as volkswagen did, as gm did, giving them long-term success, i think tesla is trying to be premium. it is going to be a competitive battle, and that is one of the main reasons you have to be more aggressive on pricing, which is why they have to localize the product. terrace forsorb the importing vehicles and the cost of getting them here in still be competitive. >> all right. thanks to donors of, founder and ceo from reno, nevada. coming up, india gearing up for elections next month. when 900 million voters will decide when the prime minister deserves a second term. we are live next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ we are looking live in mumbai, everything getting underway for indian stocks. a lot of attention will be paid to this upcoming election, running for six weeks. the prime minister is seeking a second term. 900 million eligible voters will elect more than 500 lookers to the lower house apartment. we are live in monday to the governor of new delhi, where are b were chief joins us with a look at what more did we glean over the weekend? >> so we finally have the dates now, it has been a long time coming. what we know now is that it will be about 900 million people eligible to vote, and the prime minister is seeking reelection. it's a drawnout process which
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will begin through april and may. we will have the announcement of the winner on may 23. that is what we know so far. challenges to the narendra modi real action, and the threat coming through the opposition? the biggest challenge is he wasing the world -- ordered to deliver a boost in economic growth and create 10 million jobs every year. he ran roughshod on some of those, but what he is trying to that she is trying to defend his record, that it is not enough to bring to the
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country with about a billion people. the biggest threat from him is that the opposition has been -- the confuse shortcomings of this government, but it remains to be seen what happens when elections are held, because narendra modi remains the most popular indian politician, and the chances are that you might come back to power. -- how muchomething is the indo pak conflicts playing out, and how much is it is being used for electioneering? we have been looking through some terrorist hideout,
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with airstrikes and one of the pilots. it has been a mix, but it is being utilized by the party to show that they are talking tough , taking tough measures on terrorism, and it doesn't matter if it is pakistan. nationalismen some to try to exploit it politically. the narrative seems to be that it will be increased as the world leaders in the election picture, and obviously they would like to use it with a strong leader. >> all right. our new delhi bureau chief joining us from new delhi, thank you. india's markets have just opened. looks like they have opened firmer. let's get straight to mumbai,
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where we can go through what to expect from today's session. you're seeing markets move sideways last couple sessions, looking more positive today. >> absolutely. we are seeing both the benchmark trend higher with a positive start to the week, the nifty and with some gains in the broader market index. that is where the index is outperforming the benchmark. there is more strength for the , so that is also positive when it comes to importers. on the other hand, it is something that could bear down on exporters, the information technology sector. but if you leave that aside, we are seeing strength all across. >> tell me about the state bank of india. we are talking to your colleague
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a bit earlier on, about how they can be looking interest rates to what the r.b.i. is, so what is the share price reaction? what is happening? >> well, investors are taking this as a positive, considering the kinds of moves we are seeing on this particular stock. the state bank of india is trending higher. the nifty banking index is higher by as much as 1.2%, considering it has extensional weightage. >> banks. -- thanks. let's move things on and have a look at the latest business flash headlines. vietnam is heading overseas, starting international flights in the next two weeks with routes to singapore, japan, and south korea, looking to march into the u.s.
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boeing is planning to double its domestic operations by the end of the year. -- is said to be nearing a deal to buy an israeli chipmaker to gain technology used to accelerate the flow of information around data centers. sources say the agreement to be announced later monday, with the value of under $6 billion.we are told nvidia is the leading better in the race ahead of rivals including intel, although no final decision has been made. >> a merger of deutsche bank and commerzbank is a step closer. german lenders are running out of time to show how they can grow a standalone companies. they are intensifying talks about turnaround efforts, sputtering, and the ceo is said to have ended his opposition. the board is also approved negotiations of commerzbank. more coming up on the way,
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including a look at what's going on market wise. this is the vision on the hang seng. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ you are watching "bloomberg markets: asia." i'm juliette saly. >> i'm rishaad salamat. have groundedtors all boeing 737 max-9 aircrafts after the second crash involving then model in five months. all people on board the airline were killed when the plane came down outside addis ababa. stephen engle is having a look at the developments. we talked just a short while ago. what sort of the pictures being built? >> what is being built is a number of different airlines around the world are weighing in, some countries are grounding
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the fleets temporarily of 737 max-8, which is the model that crashed in ethiopia as well as indonesia back in october. we are not linking them as far as the cause.we do not know the cause . we do know the reason for the indonesia flight. we will get to some of the parallels in the minute, but let me run through some headlines. as far as the civil aviation administration of china, they say china will resume flying after ensuring safety. you can read from that, that it is a temporary grounding until they can ensure -- we do not know what process they will be going through, but they will be talking with boeing. we are getting comments from malaysia airlines. 2020 ofect delivery in the 737 max. they do not have any currently in their fleet.
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they have rented bowling to seek technical details. we are also hearing other aviation authorities commenting. commenting onlso this crash, saying that they are offering to help in the ethiopian air crash probe. lots of ramifications here for boeing. let me first just say, of course, hearts go out to the family members, 157 people were on board this plane that crashed over the weekend. it is a tragedy. and for boeing -- >> it's their cash cow. --the business implications it is very important. this is a line of aircrafts poised to generate $30 billion in annual revenue. it is the most important airplane in the boeing fleet, the most profitable commercial aircraft ever built. they are ramping up to 57 per factory,the seattle
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it accounts for 20% of the 737 sold. now for china to be the first one to come out and ground them -- is there going to be a domino effect? cayman airlines is already saying they will ground the two they have. china southern has 50 orders, 16 delivered, a number of different airlines. air china, china eastern, shanghai airlines, shenzhen airlines, many airplanes. has its new completion and delivery center for the 737 max. columnist has written an interesting piece, saying what is the future going to be? this comes just months after
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that fatal crash of another 737. what do you think investigators learned from that? >> they are definitely looking at the parallels. --are not drawing parallels they both crashed within minutes of taking off. what i can tell you about that crashed in indonesia, the lion air cockpit was confused because there was a software -- not softwarea new cockpit that supposedly will put the plane into a dive if the sensors detect a stall. there wasn't a stall, there was a faulty reading that caused the airplane to death multiple times. the cockpit crew fought it and at the end could not recover the aircraft. they are i'm sure looking at the possibility of the parallels, but it is too early to say other
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than the fact that it is a brand-new aircraft. it came into service november 15. it had no reported problems on the flight before. this is an aircraft that has been flying since 1967. it's the most can get eventually -- the most conventionally successful ever. max ise senator seven what all the attention is on. just there more than new engines, there are a number of different technological advances that have been added. about theseo talk things happen when new aircrafts come out, because lives are lost, but if you remember the 77, it had the lithium-ion battery, it was a major problem. andnt to the boeing factory
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was part of that first launch to china. it's early days for boeing. >> thank you very much. stephen engle. later this week, we are moving to the topic of this terrible tragedy. investors will be getting a read own what's going on with china's economy. we have the latest figures on industrial production, retail sales, mixed asset investment, and property investment. all those numbers are out. friday,es for homes on which is when they wrap up the national people's congress with his usual keynote speech. >> and outside of china, there is a full slate of economic indicators to look out for. starting tuesday, india reporting inflation and industrial production data. on wednesday we will get the latest out of south korea. japan reports producer price inflation. finally on friday, the bank of japan announces a two day
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meeting. most analysts surveyed it don't anticipate any changes to the policy. that's it from bloomberg markets. "bloomberg a break:l middle east" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ you.
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