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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 14, 2019 4:00am-7:00am EDT

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ubs wealth management telling investors not to chase this rally. let's look at what futures are doing. looking relatively flat. it may take a while to see where the markets are targeting this morning. now, they have the european market set to open. london will be in focus and we have yet another vote on brexit. this is whether or not they will extend the timeline of when the u.k. would leave the eu. ftse 100 opening up flat but slightly to the downside. liv-ex also opening flat. -- the ibex also opening flat. for the market of a low chinese stocks were slower and a mixed picture in asia. let's take a look at what is going on in sectors. one thing i'm interested in his industrial.
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xi jinping and emmanuel macron are talking about a potential deal at the end of the month. they had earnings and weaker growth at the start of the year. i also want to look at materials what we have chinese data, we did see aluminum and steel producers hit records, good for iron and miners when you think about individual movers this morning? amory, -- annf, marie, brent is to the upside. companies that are adding points to the stoxx 600, you can see total and shell. are alsoand sanity helping out. looks like oil and pharma stocks we see britishr -- helping out.
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we see british tobacco also helping to drag the stoxx 600 down. thesee, to some extent, material miners helping to her to hurt the stoxx 600 as oil -- adding.at anna: let's talk about the market open, slightly to the upside. the pound pulled back after the highest in june, coming after british lawmakers rejected the idea of crashing out of the eu. terry ourselves out, as my colleagues but it. let's get more on the market reaction. mark, let me ask you about the pound and the u.k. assets. what is the markets now pricing in, or are they just policy for thought? thought?g for we could get parts of the house of commons coming together to craft brexit, and we do not know
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the timescale attached to that. >> there is a loss of confusion in the market. portfolio a lot the managers, and it was clear there is no consensus on what direction there will be on brexit. there is a general view that there will still be a relief rally because they are going to avoided no deal, the worst-case scenario. whether it is a long extension, either way, there is some relief rally. my personal view is that once we get the relief rally government we then go back to long-term negative fundamentals. but there is a lot of confusion. one of the cake things to watch is if we get an indicator vote on whether the u.k. wants to stay in the customs union. bee are saying it might suggested as an amendment, and that would be a powerful move if passed. theresa may is ansi having those kind of votes. so we wonder if she has been undermined a nafta of have to --
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underminded enough to have to allow that vote. matt: what are your thoughts on how the stock market will react? how important are the details to ftse traders, or do they just care about the fact that no deal should not happen? >> that is key at the moment, that we have supposedly blocked no deal. theoretically, it is still possible because we are headed towards the legal date. we would have to revoke article 50, which would be extreme. it seems very unlikely we will get no deal, the most important thing. there is still a lot of confusion about where to go. there is still debate as to whether there is any point in extending months, how will we suddenly get a much better deal by then? it seems as if there is an extension, it will need to be long, meaning the u.k. needs to
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agree to participate in parliament elections. so there is a lot of confusion at the moment, but we seem to have made the worst-case scenario a real tail risk, the one short-term positive. you aboutlet me ask the broader market picture and chinese data. you are usually based in singapore, usually spending time poring over that data. see china 7%o weaker, it is a volatile index, but still quite a move. unemployment moving in the right direction, which could be interesting. >> we still have not seen the bottom of the china growth slowdown. many think it will come through in q2, bloomberg intelligence is in that camp. saw a big drive in stimulus come through from october last year. that is what we saw that the major shift from rather than a subtle deleveraging, that is when xi jinping came out and
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said they would provide unwavering support. aat is when we began to see coordinated effort to supply stimulus to support the economy. that is slowly starting to seep through, but there is still a lack. certainly, data in china is imperfect. , soave seen equities surge it makes sense there is a pullback. trade, theorrected policy is forward-looking, they are correct to be optimistic. remain optimistic overall, but unfortunately, there is too much optimism, to quickly. continue toets will be difficult until we get a trade deal signed and that will be the catalyst for a massive move higher chinese equities that will lead global equities higher. mark, thank you very much for joining us after your late night with traders. mark, our mliv strategist in the
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city of london for the week. we are live at the j.p. morgan conference in paris. francine lacqua has an exclusive interview with the banks copresident daniel pinto. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back, 10 minutes into the trading day.
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let's get a bigger perspective on global markets, back to jpmorgan in paris. francine lacqua is joined by daniel pinto, copresident of jpmorgan. francine: thank you so much. i am delighted to be joined by daniel pinto. daniel, thank you for joining us. last year, almost exactly to the date, we were talking at this very conference where you have some of the best investors in the world, about market corrections. you told me they would be a 20-40% correction. what do you think today? daniel: at the time, in every six or 10were only months before, the correction would start. and there is a correction of 20-40%. policies that every central bank will adopt, the cycle will become longer.
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therefore, the two or three years, is a year after. i think that they are relatively constructive about the markets to where we are today. december wascine: ugly. the last quarter of 2018 was ugly. what is the probability of seeing that this year? daniel: it is possible, we had to corrections last year, six corrections in the cycle. i was looking at the models that we used to predict recession in the next 12 months the model is based on economic data and sentiment data was given a probability of may 20%. he was giving 90%.
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economy,look at the when you look at even our retail data, what consumers are doing, consumer confidence, delinquents and all that, clearly, the u.s. was not. it had 90% of probability of a recession. so it is not a surprise. the violence of the move was driven by liquidity. really, the economy could not justify that kind of correction. francine: what could be the next trigger? is it sentiment, mood, politics? the way the market is functioning? daniel: the market will be watching what happens with the u.s. and the global economy, with trade and brexit. this is the longest cycle we've had in a long time. so the market will be watching these things, and because of the market liquidity, or rather lack of liquidity, these reactions
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may happen again. so who knows? we had six, we may have 10 more. thinkne: ever -- the emerging markets are overcrowded? daniel: not all. the fact that the fed will probably hold rates lower for a long amount of time, a stable dollar, signs of stability on growth in china, stable commodity prices and recovery in brazil, even argentina. overall, there is a good backdrop. today, we have seen flows into emerging markets. it is still a small fraction of 2016 or 17. francine: there is not the chance of suddenly really strong inflation and having to hike? daniel: the probability is very
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low. i do not think it is a high probability. francine: do you see anything and the markets that they are either mispricing or misunderstanding? market is relatively rational and fairly priced. i don't think they are overpriced after the correction. i don't think that growth is overpriced. i don't think spreads are in the wrong place the market is in a good place. when you look at a market in a good place and an economy that is doing fine globally, you can argue that the backup for markets is good in the next year or two. francine: what about brexit? daniel: we have been working so hard to be prepared, to continue serving our clients, if there is a hard brexit. our view is that it is not going to happen, but we are prepared. francine: that is what, legal
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entities moving stocks? daniel: it is. legal entities in europe, we operate particularly in four places, germany, france, luxembourg. people move along the way, so some may start commuting for a. of time -- for a period of time . we don't want to disturb the lives of people if we do not have to, we'll do it gradually, but we will prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. francine: has any of the pound volatility impacted your recipes? daniel: it is one of the components. i think the preparation is more a matter of bottom line and cost and investment in getting ready, rather than the effect on the bottom line. clearly, the outcome will have
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an impact on the u.k. economy and the outcome will have an impact on the global economy, so therefore, we are correlated to whatever happens in the global economy. it will be at impact if there is an outcome, which i hope it doesn't happen. francine: would it be systemic? this is the kind of a mistake, right? something that if it does not go to plan, what the markets freeze up? daniel: i don't think so. i think banks and financial institutions are already well-prepared. i don't think it is a systemic issue. it is one of the components within a bunch of issues, not just one. francine: what higher plans for banks in china? daniel: we are doing well in the past years, we appointed a new leader to run it for us. we are investing in the business, we have apply for licenses for our securities company with majority and a path
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to full ownership over time. but china isudent not an economy you can ignore, so therefore, we will continue to steadily invest, and as the market develops, companies like jpmorgan and have a lot of value. ficc,ne: when you look at have you see that developing? -- how do you see that developing? daniel: it has been one of the more challenging developments. the wallet last year was $96 billion. they were very clear that it is a business that is very important to our client and the key to success was scale. wallet, the only way to maintain scale is to increase market share, and that is exactly what happened.
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scale issiness and our perfectly possible. basis, and it is a very good marginal return we are super committed to that business and have not been shrinking investment at all. it is important to the client. matt: if scale is important, do you want to scale that up? we are perfectly comfortable at our level of market scale. it is not our choice, it is that of our clients to do more or less. but we are investing to provide the best possible service. if that is a consequence of that, our scale goes up, that would be great. what are your clients tell you about how they want to invest and how they want to use your service? the clients are more and
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more interested in the client experience, the quality of liquidity that you provide, access information and data, the quality of your analytics. most importantly, how you behave in times like december. so that you are not a fair weather friend, you are in the market in the good times and bad times. that is what clients care about, embezzlement do, and we have done quite well -- that is what we do, and we have done it quite well. --ncine: these guys are looking for opportunities to enter the market. i think it is good. if they were to be another correction, if there were to be another like december, it is that offer of value. people are less concerned about day-to-day volatility and are more concerned about value, they will go for that. aftere will see for now
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the recovery is probably a call consolidation -- probably a consolidation. but because of the economic backdrop, markets will continue to be positive. francine: is this globally, or is there a region? if you leave the u.s. to one side, does asia do better than europe, or the other way around? daniel: it is difficult to know. the correlation of markets at this time, the cycle, it will be quite high. i seeis no mispricing anywhere, so i think it will be positive for everyone, hopefully. francine: talk to me about jpm: -- jpm coin. daniel: it is going well, it is a prototype. we have put together multiple parts of jpmorgan, we want to create a big platform.
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we launched and interbank network, essentially a network of banks to share information and do more overtime. it coin is related to that, is a very effective way to move instantaneously, 365 days a year in a very effective way. it really will help clients to optimize the management or liquidity. it is one dollar one coin, so there is no volatility. it is a good way to track value on the possibility of optimizing the management of liquidity. matt: daniel pinto, thank you for joining. francine: that is of course the chief officer of jpmorgan. i will handed back to you in westminster, and. -- anna. anna: thank you, francine. great to hear daniel pinto's thoughts on the market.
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here on the market open, another blow to boeing. u.s. regular this change course, banning the 737 max. we look at what this means for the playmaker. omberg. rumored -- blo ♪
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matt: welcome back, this is the european open, 24 minutes into the trading day. starting to see some green
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arrows the cap is up .4%. the dax unchanged, as is the ftse 100. the u.s. has dealt another blow to boeing's beleaguered 737. grounded theve model after new evidence emerged linking sunday's crash in ethiopia to a disaster in indonesia. joining us now is bloomberg opinion columnist chris. what news have we learned? hi, very important developments. huge news the plate is grounded in the u.s., a lot slower than other jurisdictions to do so. they said there were -- there wasn't data suggesting cracks -- similarities between the crashes. this is not data from the black recorders, but
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nonetheless, significant information to ground the planes, causing huge headaches for boeing. matt: what can boeing due to work against of this? >> right now, nothing. it has to await the results of the investigation, but its customers will be asking themselves if i want to take delivery of a plane i cannot use. boeing has been ramping up production and will produce more than 50 a month going forward. hundreds of these planes are expected to be delivered in the coming months. right now, a big question is, fine, you can't flood -- fly them. anna: chris, thank you very much. the latest on boeing. i am here in westminster, coming to no, and once again, no no-deal. brexit, withis of
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13 ministers defying the government's orders. we breakttle complex, it down, and get analysis on what on earth could follow the events of last night. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: we are 30 minutes into the trading day. u.k. lawmakers vote today on brexit -- a brexit extension after ruling out no deal. sterling dips after hitting the lowest level since 2013. the boeing 737 next 8 and 9. spotify files and antitrust complaint. commissionern tells bloomberg she is
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monitoring the situation. you have a specific apple product, apple music, who is a direct competitor to spotify and its services. this is such a tool market situation that we take very seriously. matt: welcome to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. i am matt miller here in berlin alongside anna edwards in westminster. anna: we are in westminster because we saw the incredible events of yesterday, the twists and turns of whether or not to block no deal. we saw some rebellion from the government benches. let's bring in a baby who has interesting things to say, the director of the institute for government. it seems as if there are two tracks happening. theresa may still seems to be
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clinging to her deal. at the same time, you have the chance s perhaps we need a change. talking both of those things be happening at once? minister is prime pretty much certain to try to get her deal through a third time. her attorney general gave her a big blow this week. he is exploring whether there can be a different interpretation, working behind the scenes with the hardest of the dup camp. movement, itparate may or may not include the chancellor, to see whether there can be an even faster brexit. anna: does her votes don't stand a chance -- still stand a chance? cox can sayle
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something that will win them over? he can say something that country has a right to delete any treaty unilaterally if circumstances have changed. what is more likely to change their minds is this maneuvering raises thecause it prospect that they could get something even softer, which they would hate even more. they are never going to love it, but they have this decision that they really didn't want to have to make. anna: let's talk about this maneuvering to try to create something. what is the mechanism that gets that before the house? we talk about a series of indicative votes. it never seems clear how the views of the house expressed. bronwen: it isn't clear. the indicative vote is one thing some mps have wanted for a long time. the governmentt
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doesn't want to go down that road. it is really a question on whether these other movements are happening, whether these can course of momentum behind them. they can talk about bringing my nt.ndme the first will have got to find whether or not there is a body of support. anna: and they do that behind the scenes first? but it is veryo, difficult to establish whether there is a majority. there hasn't been anything clear apart from liking no deal because everyone still has a sense that his or her favorite option could win the day. until you get some of those
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options forced off the table by other people, everyone is reluctant to settle for the second preference. what is going on is a funny game of trying to force some options off the table so that some people are to be confronted with having to embrace their second preference market something they really hate. anna: could no deal still happen by accident? yes.nwen: it is still in the legislation that we exit marked 29th unless we have a deal. unless that has changed, we exit. anna: and we could wait until tuesday or wednesday next week before theresa may decides to ask for an extension. possible thatis she is very likely to ask informally over the weekend. anna: we have a lot of international viewers watching. some of them no doubt baffled,
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some fascinated, some completely confused. do you think the systems we used to make our laws are being tested to the limit? doing a bigger change worth the system working exactly how it should be? bronwen: it is working according to its rules. of think it is testing the system, not print breaking point. it is showing all the weaknesses of it. if you are going to take a positive view as to what this is showing, it is showing us that the two-party system, the parliamentary system, which depends on the government having a big majority to get things through, that is creaking. you could say britain is a complex people with a lot of people who believe different things. when you to think of possibly a feature of coalition government. many different parties representing all kinds of things.
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the last time that form of proportional representation was there was the people, a resounding lack of interest in the population. that the table find that more attractive. anna: thanks for joining us and shutting sunlight -- shedding some light. let's get the bloomberg first word news update. flight data and voice recorders from the ethiopian air crash have been such a french authorities for analysis. yesterday, the u.s. finally jets.ed boeing 737 max 8 faa --gulator, is
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the jobless rate in china rose at the end of february, up from 4.9% in december. growing 5.3% from a year ago. investment in property rose, reaching its highest level since 2014. the senate has the five president trump and voted to remove u.s. support for the saudi led conflict in yemen. some republicans joined democrats who rebuked the president over his response to the murder of the saudi writer jamal khashoggi last year. president trump has already threatened to veto. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists an analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. matt: thanks very much. debra mao in hong kong. has pound volatility kicks up this week, u.k. bond markets are also seeing signs of brexit induced distress. the risk of higher import yetets remains high, investors are ignoring hedges that protect them from guilt volatility. dani: whatever form this deal takes, the market is pricing in one clear outcome and that is long-term price increases. we can see that really by looking at the five-year inflation swap. i have the u.k. compared to europe which usually moves in line together. this year, the u.k. has broken out as european dana weekends, priceg this long-term outlook to fall.
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you would think if you have this picture in the uncertainty we see over brexit, you would want hedges because uncertainty breeds volatility. in the gilt market, we are not seeing that. instead, we are seeing options fall. one month, 10 year options on sterling rates. what we see here is continued volatility. i have the original referendum vote in the u.s. election. instead, uncertainty is causing the boe being a unable to move. you really don't want to become an investor trying to buy this volatility right now because premium is not there and you would get crushed. expect this measure of volatility to stay depressed until we get any sort of clear outcome. matt: thanks very much. dani burger there with a look at
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swaptions. up next, we will bring you some of the stock movers. lufthansa cutting back growth plans. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to the european open. to the are 44 minutes into the trading day and beginning to seal up at turnaround in european stocks. the indexes on the continent are starting to turn higher. let's take a look at our individual stock stories. startie: i want to lufthansa putting the brakes on this expansion for capacity and focusing on profitability. german power generator
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also under pressure even though it is boosting dividends. upside, surging more than 8%. this is italy's biggest aerospace company. that, citigroup is saying they are on track for recovery. anna: thank you so much. let's get back to our big story this morning because you are watching the brexit latest developments. brexit is inching toward a possible delay. to prime minister suffered a rebellion within her own party and was defeated on keeping a note yield brexit on the table. they will need to be a much longer extension to article 50. such an extension would undoubtedly require the united kingdom to hold european parliament elections.
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i do not think that would be the right outcome. anna: joining us now on the green, sam, a conservative member of parliament for a surrey -- east surrey. very good to have you with us. thank you for joining us. whips yesterday. sam: parliament has made its view express -- explicitly clear. in the morning come my policy was the government's policy. in the space of 30 minutes, the government's policy was not the government's policy. it was total confusion. i think for my business and constituents, no deal is
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definitely a disorderly exit and is not the right decision. anna: one of my colleagues described it as an alice in wonderland movement. what do you think will be the next step here? it seems as if theresa may still wants to try with her deal. do you think she stands a chance? sam: i think it is unlikely to pass because people feel very strongly that a deal is not the right deal. that is not just in parliament. deal is also deeply unpopular in the country. they feel it is one of the least popular options out there. the attorney general might have advise somewhat that there will be a number of brexiteers celebrate he supported deal, but she cannot get the deal through .n conservative and dup votes she needs a substantial rebellion from the labour side.
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mps what have to re scue a conservative prime minister. matt: what looked like yesterday was theresa may was angry that her week no deal package was taken off the table and replaced by a stronger no deal of avoidance vote. she then instructed her own deal.to vote for a no ? -- how much longer can someone like that lead the party? sam: i think the truth is, parliament is divided, the conservative party is divided. that is where we are. i don't think that was a new leader those constraints change. we do have a situation where we have got to work on what to do next. i think the key thing is for the prime minister to become more
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flexible. economic the moment, she expects everyone to be flexible while she remains inflexible. she is still stuck in the same group as far as trying to run a deal for. what -- run a deal through. there are other options the executive has blocked us from looking at. i think until parliament has gone for that process, we are going to be stuck in this endless cycle of the government fallsg weak motion that short of promises made and be surprised that people vote against it. matt: how much softer doesn't get than the withdrawal agreement itself? as long as you have the backstop in their, the likelihood that the pay has kept in the eu basically forever, at least the customs union forever is high. that is the problem. it wasn't actually a brexit to begin with.
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don't you think that people actually want to see the u.k. leaving the eu? sam: for those who really want to leave the eu, the problem for them with accept is that with the backstop their, they do not realize any of the benefits of leaving that they promised the electric. the truth is -- electorate. the truth is that the backstop is not going away. borders,ontrol of our but do not want the other side to have a border. that is not going away. that have beenns brought have been very much up to the government, but it doesn't feel as if we ever get to that point where we get a full assessment. what youe behind us, would actually vote for. independence votes, how will this work -- indicative votes,
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how will this work? in present been calling for this for about four months now -- mp's have been calling for this for about four months now. anna: is it likely we would ever get to that place? suffered theit has heaviest defeat in january. that is ideal parliament clearly is not in favor of. given that none of the big issues are resolved by this deal, what our trading relationship with the eu is going to be if it is rammed isough, all you are doing storing of problems for the next phase because of political declaration allows for a spectrum of outcomes. how are we going to negotiate down to a mandate if people are terrified of no deal? we do need to establish where
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the majority is in the house of commons isis de novo basis in on a no dealver -- basis in order to deliver. anna: thank you so much. up next, it is battle of the charts. bloomberg terminal users can interact with all of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to the european open. we are almost an hour into the trading day right now increasing mix markets across the continent and in the u.k. right now, it is time for battle of the charts. given the breadth love to talk about the weather and poor anna is outside in the rain in front of parliament, i decided to look at the brexit barometer, which really divides things into the weather. right now, we are technically in rainy because we are below zero. at one point in february, it was above zero, windy territory.
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it is basically an index that response to how the u.k. economy is moving off the brexit process. it is made up of things like inflation, employment, uncertainty. matt: let's go to you, dani. dani: i'm not sure anything else is happening besides brexit, so let's stick with that theme. i'm looking at the pound volatility curve. it is more expensive to buy one-month options that it is one year. we got this recently as parliament rejects theresa may's deal. it means volatility near-term is higher than longer-term. matt: there really isn't anything but brexit right now. i'm going to give it to you for the skewed vol chart.
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thanks both of you. do can see all of the chart here on the bloomberg by running g tv . this is bloomberg. ♪ want more from your entertainment experience?
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just say teach me more. into your xfinity voice remote to discover all sorts of tips and tricks in x1. can i find my wifi password? just ask. [ ding ] show me my wifi password. hey now! [ ding ] you can even troubleshoot, learn new voice commands and much more. clean my daughter's room. [ ding ] oh, it won't do that. welp, someone should.
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just say "teach me more" into your voice remote and see how you can have an even better x1 experience. simple. easy. awesome. francine: no deal comes off the table.
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that path out of europe remains invisible. the british prime minister loses her voice on the floor and in her party. grounded in the usa. signaling 737 gets a red at home as evidence links the two fatal crashes. the blackbox actually goes to paris for closer investigation. china's economic slowdown. that is the one thing we are looking at. we have some great interviews throughout the day right here in paris at the global markets conference. good morning, i am francine lacqua in paris. we will be speaking a little bit later on with jamie dimon. in the meantime, we look at markets and the brexit and the voting yesterday in parliament. tom: the news flow absolutely extraordinary. for those of you just waking up
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in the early morning in the united states, the news out of the united kingdom is extraordinary. chaos and meltdown are words used. we are thrilled to tell you we will bring you one of the founders of the european experiment. we will do that here in a bit. right now in new york city with our first word news, here is viviana. today, u.k. lawmakers will vote on a postponement to the march 29 exit deadline. to terms of the divorce from the european union are still being rewritten. parliament rejecting the idea of leaving the eu without a deal in place. theresa may is still fighting for her brexit deal, but it has lost twice. she suffered a major rebellion from members of her own conservative party. the u.s. now joining much of the rest of the world in temporarily grounding the boeing 737 max after the crash in ethiopia.
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regulators say new data suggests a link to an indonesian crash last year involving the same model jets. over,the investigation is the indonesian jet will decide on its order for the jet. o'rourkerourke -- beto joins an already overcrowded candidacy. showing him in the top tier of democratic candidate. where data china shows a slowdown deepening and the first two months of the year. industrial output has the weakest start since 2009. retail sales expanding at the slowest rate since 2012. pickingset investment up and property investment jumping. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700
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journalists an analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. let's get right to it. to data is very interesting this morning. we will show you the vix in a moment. euro weaker. vix at 13.21, showing that resiliency that we are seeing in the equity market. struggling with a big lift off of all that news. no joker's away. -- no deal drifts away. by want to do a chart for a global audience as we await the texas congressman beto o'rourke's announcement as to what he is going to do with the nomination for the democratic party. we are also waiting to hear when
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joe biden has as well. there are great differences between the different states in america and their economic output like what we just assume in europe. we know italy is different and germany. but it is remarkable the difference between say texas and michigan. let's get onto what has been happening in parliament. it rejected leaving the eu without a deal last night, setting the pound to its highest level since june. lawmakers will now vote on a postponement to the march 29 deadline. joining us now from westminster is bloomberg's anna edwards. great to speak with you. is there any insight into what the eu would agree to tickets an -- to give an extension.
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anna: if we do see a vote this evening, it seems the is a has two types of extensions in mind. one is a short term in order to get any deal a great here through, the other type is a much longer one. the eu has been very clear along that if it is going to agree to any kind of extension, it wants to be sure it knows why that extension is being asked for. that is certainly something that mp's behind me are very mindful of. could shed on what exactly there is support for in the house. francine: do we have any idea what there is support for? a second referendum? something else they are looking at? anna: there are a couple of tracks running consecutively right now. who stilleresa may
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seems to think there is still room to try once again to push for deal through. we could get meaningful vote number three next week. at the same time, there are various members of parliament trying to work across the aisle a little bit to try and come up with other ideas and options. we will see some of those options tested this evening. some of those amendments try to establish is their support in the house for a second referendum. we will wait until lunchtime to find out which of these amendments he chooses to be voted on. hopefully, we see interesting votes this evening that will narrow down the options. tom: let's go to therese raphael. i really can't say enough about this opinion piece. yesterday's vote killed off two remissions fictions.
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no deal is better than no deal and the so-called managed no deal. alice in the wonderland moment where the prime minister instructed her party to vote her emotion down. now lawmakers need to say what they want to happen. the chancellor broke ranks yesterday with his prime minister. does the prime minister have a government this thursday? : she does at the moment. bronwen earlier and she says the meaningful vote next week, if it takes place could still stand a chance of passing. to last by an an enormous amount anjanuary, -- she lost by enormous amount in january. there is this other activity taking place around trying to find some kind of compromise
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across the house, a new kind of brexit may be removing the red line. that is a much longer term project. that is what the chancellor seems to be alluding to, that we do need to decide what the house of commons would vote for. things remain very unclear. more votes later this evening. much.ne: thank you so anna edwards in london in front of westminster. joining us is the trilateral commission chair and former ecb president. thank you for joining us right here. a rather noisy paris at this 2019 global markets conference. when you look at the risk of brexit, with a be a systemic risk if there is no deal brexit? what is dramatic really is
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the level of uncertainty that we have. we know that no deal has been computed very well by the bank of england. it would represent an an enormous hit for the pay economy and by way of consequence, also for the uae economy. for both, it is really very grave. it does not take into account this stalemate in westminster. all the other countries. francine: what does it mean for central-bank policy? if there was a crashing out, what does it mean for banks being ready? claude: to has been a lot of contact between the bank of england and other banks around the world, not only the ecb.
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confidence that they would do as well as possible to protect the economy of all countries concerned. muche say, i hope very that at the end of the day there will be a deal because it be such an absurd demonstration to have the no deal. that being said, i must confess that i'm amazed to see that it is impossible to get the final position. they are rejecting everything until now. maybe there will be new events. wait and see a little bit, which is now very likely. newelections, decision-making. francine: what is the european position on this? i keep hearing europe just wants them to get on with this. they have problems of their own at home.
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how much do they actually worry about brexit? claude: all europeans are worrying a lot. i really take it that they are still on the opinion that it would be better if the u.k. wednesday. stay.uld a lot of drama is created in london, but if london would say finally we stay, they would be accepted cheerfully by all europeans. we have to remember that. that is important because one could expect, you decided to leave, you leave. there is still a desire to help in any respect, but to help the u.k., the u.k. has to help itself. i hope very much that it is what they will do at the end of the day. francine: thank you for now.
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the former ecb president. tom stays with us. with, we will be speaking the jpmorgan chief executive, jamie dimon. this is bloomberg. ♪
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viviana: this is "bloomberg surveillance." uber is in advanced talks to sell a $1 billion take and its self driving car unit. ned aberg has thlear group of investors would be -- sony says there is no proof to report that it would be the grand maker of the grand theft
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auto videogame. shares rising almost 7% on speculation. foreign intelligence service in isn't asays huawei trustworthy partner to build the country's 5g network. bloomberg is learning some german officials are concerned huawei could help china still corporate secrets. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. latest round of stimulus is being accompanied by renewed calls on government to step up their game. acknowledgment by president mario draghi that his options are increasingly worsening. his term ends this year. we speak to the former ecb president. when you look at policy, is there anything that makes you worry, either they don't have aretools to face a downturn
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they have missed the window of normalizing interest rates? are-claude: i think we optimizing the monetary policy as well as possible. as you can see, they decided to prolong the period of very low interest rates. we have a slowing down of the economy, which is a global slowing down as well as a european one. course,d a session, of the maneuver of the monetary policy would be bigger. and europer in japan and also the u.s. where you that youe the 5% normally utilize to combat a recession. we are at a level which is part of that -- half of that. we are in a situation which is difficult. i trust the central bank would
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do all they can, all they would imagine they can do. in the case of europe, there is of a refinancing situation, which has been decided. also commence on the fact that normally we should not have centralization because in the business cycle, we are late on the u.s.. the problem i see is that when the u.s. has a recession, by contagion we automatically also have a recession. will have to face up with the contagion coming on the u.s. it is wonderful to speak to you. with what we see with the slowdown in europe and brexit, i was like for you to speak to the people of the united kingdom now
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and take the fabric from john and the-- john monet european experiment. why should the united kingdom stay within mr. monet's european experiment? jean-claude: i think the u.k. has the largest interest in participating in this extraordinary european economy and historic endeavor. this was decided by the u.k. previously. we saw it was called upon by a fantastic speech. it is a long story. u.k., at ay that the moment where all european countries, all members of the european union are asking the u.k. to stay, they have decided
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to leave without examining carefully what it meant. we see now that it is a mess because it was not -- the diagnosis was not made seriously. now, we are discovering the problems that should have been examined. anytime, and i say that as a european citizen, of the french citizen. anytime the intent would decide to stay, they would be accepted very warmly by all europeans. close at a moment where you have india, china, indonesia, brazil, mexico, single market economies with single currencies that the u.k. would please is a pity -- leave is a pity for the establishment of the world.
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francine: thank you so much. coming up a little bit later on, we will be speaking to the former finance minister of italy. we will be talking about policy in the country. don't miss that interview in about 10 minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." francine lacqua in paris. i'm tom keene in new york.
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live i -- we have been thrilled to have the ample services of the bloomberg transportation team. i want to bring this up right now. covers the new york times with the first granularity of lion versus ethiopia. you are aware of all of this and what these black boxes will tell us. i assume at some point, boeing is going to develop a software fix. is anyone in the reporting have a window of all of this? how long does it take to do a software fix? ris: that depends very much on the problem identified in this investigation. with the u.s. grounded the plane yesterday and the black boxes being examined in france now, we are really hoping for answers as soon as possible on this. first indications yesterday that
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there are similarities between the two crashes. the investigators aren't willing to say yet that the cause is identical, but there was sufficient evidence apparently to finally convince the u.s. authorities that the right thing to do was put this plane on the ground. tom: work to do with the knowledge from the dallas morning news and others that american united states pilots were more than upset? these are the nations that have shut down the 737 max in red. in yellow, we have the different airlines. of pilotsu make furious over this? ris: i can understand that there would be a lot of confusion out there given the mixed messages we have had over the previous months as to whether this aircraft was safe. boeing always said it was.
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at the same time, we have pilots saying we wish we knew more about the new automation systems on board this aircraft. still no confirmation that this was the problem that brought down the plane in ethiopia. really right now, a lot of confusion. pilots on the one hand wanting to fly this plane. huge concerns now about whether it should be in the air at all. tom: thank you so much. chris and our team working on this story and boeing. coming up, one of our most popular guests. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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right now, an update. viviana: in the u.k., parliament is clear, it does not want a no deal brexit but lawmakers have not clarified what sort of divorce they want. the house of commons is set to vote on a delayed to the march 29 deadline. theresa may suffering a major rebellion from her conservative party. she is warning brexit could be delayed for months. the blowback from the crash of the boeing 737 match -- max putting orders at risk. they will decide on the $25 billion order once the investigation is complete, and lion air may cancel their order and shift to airbus. the u.s. has joined dozens of other countries and grounding the 737 max.
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defying senate is president trump on yemen, voting to which all u.s. support for the saudi led contact -- conflict. it has to do with the murder of jamal khashoggi. the administration threatening to veto the measure. more legal measures for -- problems for paul manafort. minutes after his federal prison sentence was raised, he was charged with mortgage fraud in new york state and other charges . if he was charged on say charges, president trump -- state charges, president trump would not be able to pardon him. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. in the is appropriate early months of 2019 to speak to jean-claude trichet a, -- jean-claude trichet, about the
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present and future of his euro. breakfast andt a brussels, you gave a speech talking about the advantages of the euro, the deepening of trade. what are the advantages right now in this great disparity between germany and italy? 12 do we move forward with and 15 and 18 years of zero with a huge divide in the benefits of the euro for nations like germany and italy? mr. trichet: i do not want to they euro area to the united states of america, which is a big single currency single market. there are enormous differences between.s.
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massachusetts and louisiana. when i look at the difference i have in between united states states, and the euro nations and countries, you have a norm is difference. what counts is what you do as a whole. when i look at the rate of gold since the euro was introduced, on january 1999, i see growth of capital in the euro area has been more or less the same as in the united states. see we are in a universe where we are doing not so bad because not so it is in the same as the u.s. we need to make a lot of progress, particularly the euro area. we have to improve our governance.
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in the euro area as a whole, and in each country, to do better and to catch up with the gdp of the u.s. which is higher than ours. lacqua will be speaking to james dimon of jpmorgan in a bit. let me ask you a question on my mind, how do we extricate europe from its commercial banking prices? they are living with negative rates and maybe too many banks. formulae forrichet the e.u. to move to profitability? mr. trichet: very good question. it seems to me that we have a multidimensional issue. certainly, in some countries you have particular difficulty because of the remaining nonperforming loans and so forth.
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there is a problem which is being solved, but we have to work on that. on top of that, it is clear we do not have a real single market of banking services like in the u.s. you have a segmentation nation by nation which is based largely on credentials established at the level of the nation, the country themselves. we need a banking market of services. the banking union is designed to do that and we have to work on that more actively. francine: the banking union, when it comes into play, will it focus on roles that are outdated -- rules that are outdated? the pace is greater than regulations. mr. trichet: in terms of the single surveillance authority,
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the ecb and so forth, we have work to do in terms of deposit guarantee. a lot of further work in realizing the resolution. what is really necessary is to cost borderopinion, restructuring like in the u.s., to have a real single market. it is a pity that our banks are in a universe where they are less profitable than u.s. banks. we do not have that in other sectors. francine: when we go back to the extension of the stimulus by the ecb, is there concern they will not have more ammunition for a more severe downturn in they get stuck here forever? mr. trichet: the question is for all advanced economies, whether or not accommodative policies in the u.s., taking into account the full employment, the fact
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that the economy was going and going during the last years. we have all the same problem. knowe case of europe, we about maneuvering on the monetary side if we have a recession, and that may not be next year or this year but we will see it. the maneuver is on the macro economic side because we are gdp, and- around 3% of on the fiscal side, we are at the level of overhaul, of the fiscal deficit which is 5% or something of magnitude. in the u.s., you have a deficit of around 3% of gdp and a big fiscal deficit. we will see where it is stabilizing. we have room form a neighboring.
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the fact is, it -- we have room for maneuvering. it would be difficult. francine: thank you for joining us, the former ecb president, jean-claude trichet a. -- trichet. we will speak with maurice obstet filled. tfeld.s -- maurice obst ♪
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♪ tom: the former leader of poland speaking. francine lacqua in paris, tom keene in new york. mr. tusk is speaking, someone that we all listen to. -- duringt on twitter my consultations ahead of the meetings, i will appeal to the e.u. 27 to be open to a long finds it if the u.k. necessary to rebuild its brexit -- buildand rebuild consensus around it. i do not even know how to explain london. i must be having the same problems with brussels. what is the response to wednesday and this theater on
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thursday? maria: a few things. tweet, the key word is "long." and you knowd tusk the decision will be political. this is angela merkel and emmanuel macron, three months or one year? people are tired of this story and say they need to keep the .ressure on by may and move on there are other things brussels needs to worry about. there is still hope there could be another referendum and the u.k. could state in the e.u., but that tension will make it so interesting. tom: what is the advantage to cker, barnier,
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tusk, and the rest? maria: they will be leaving at the end of the year and they want to keep and i on their own ye on theireep an e own legacy. you can deal with a transition ,hat is smooth or go into chaos and that will call into question everything you have done the past six years. have strong incentive to get the deal through the finish line and they are more friendly to prime minister may then let's say, macron. francine: maria tadeo in brussels. let's get back to paris to the global conference of jpmorgan. murray's obstacle failed joins us -- maurice obstfeld joins us. we misunderstand about
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the u.k. economy? will it be strong enough to withhold every scenario? maurice: the u.k. economy is clearly slowing, clearly uncertainties are hitting investments and consumer confidence. i worry that with a no deal outcome there will be a lot of disruption and more of a collapse than we have seen to date. francine: what does this mean for the rest of europe? could it be a game changer or does europe strengthen on the back of brexit? maurice: an outcome would resolve uncertainty, but europe is slowing pretty dramatically, particularly the german economy, which is the big driver of european development. i do not think a no deal brexit helps it at all. the consequences of this current fragile environment could be worse. wonderful to speak to you
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today on our international economics. there seems to be so much debate on trade and so much is countable goods versus the more opaque services. good knowledge of our export and import flows, as france or germany? do we really understand service trade? maurice: service trade is a growing proportion of trade for .he global economy for countries like the u.k., it is particularly important and that is one of the reasons of the threat of a no deal brexit. it is important for the u.k. i think we have a good handle on it. the area where it will be a lot of movement -- and there is a lot of movement -- in digital trade.
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there is a challenge for keeping track of what is going on for reporting. francine: what is the first indicator that you would look back at to indicate a global recession? is it something in china, or something else economists should be looking at? maurice: for the moment, global recession is not on the near horizon. it is clear to's -- hard to say what the trigger would be. i would be looking for following consumer confidence, which has so far held up pretty well. we are seeing worrisome indicators. we have seen capital expenditure falling, trade with worrisome numbers out of europe and asia. we expected the slowdown in the the, but we are used to consumer confidence. when the number starts to fall, we will be in trouble.
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francine: the former imf chief economist stays with us. we will have more from the jpmorgan global markets conference. tom: right now in the house of commons, and exhausting three days, not many people sitting on the green leather but speaking is liam fox of the challenge moving forward for his government as well. francine: coming up, we have an exclusive conversation with jpmorgan executive jamie dimon at 8:30 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ viviana: this is bloomberg "surveillance." the u.s. government escalating its investigation into facebook's data sharing practices. a justice department probe broadened to include a grand jury. prosecutors subpoenaed records from at least two smartphone makers who have partnerships with facebook.
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another loss for johnson & johnson over its baby powder. pay $29ays they must million to a dying woman who blames asbestos tainted talc for her cancer. a judge made errors that should have resulted in a mistrial. i california utility blamed for the california wildfire. it burned almost 300,000 acres worth of l.a. in 2017. --than 1000 buildings were more than 1000 buildings were destroyed. edison is questioning the findings. francine: thank you. let's talk more on china. the latest data out of beijing signaling the economic slowdown has deepened. start and thest
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unemployment rate jumping in february, will these -- are aboutsigns of -- we asked global growth. >> i worry that growth has been subpar everywhere, in developing an emerging markets. revisionsen dramatic downward by the ecb and in china, we still have growth slowing down quite a bit from last year. it will be over 6%, but just barely. francine: that was the jpmorgan chair of global research. we are back with maurice obstfeld. when you look at china, are they putting the right kind of stimulus? the government and authorities are trying to stabilize growth. will they succeed? maurice: there are three issues
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in china. they have been trying to reduce the growth of credit. they have backed off from that and will have fiscal stimulus going forward. there are also the trade tensions which are very important. finally, there is the shift in regimenomy under the xi for more resources for the state owned sector. francine: what do we misunderstand about china? maurice: china has an incredibly opaque economy. we may be overestimating the chances of a trade deal with the u.s. the issues of enforcement that mr. lighthizer has put on the table get to the heart of this. how do you monitor what is going on in that economy and whether there is state support for exports? contentious going forward and shipping more soybeans will not help.
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francine: will they find a trade deal that is substantial and will hold? maurice: i am pessimistic about anything holding. it's opaque, how do you enforce opaqueness, how do you enforce it? the overall u.s. dynamics are pushing to a bigger account deficit and that may remain a source of friction. francine: what happens if the renminbi goes to seven? what happens on trade and internally in the economy? maurice: i don't think there are magic numbers. there is a psychological redline perhaps for the u.s. it will result in some additional trade frictions, but in and of itself, it is not that big of a deal. francine: if you look at the u.s. economy and breakdown
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emerging markets, what should we worry about most? maurice: i think europe is a concern. the political environment is contributing to the uncertainty, and the level of global policy uncertainty is at an all-time high. in china, the government has lowered the growth target and accepted reality. there are huge geopolitical risks around the world. one is the collapse of multilateralism and the sense , they u.s.recession leadership will not be there, and that is not helping the market. so much forou joining us, the former head of research for the international monetary fund. down, this isfund out of switzerland.
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on 900 million, they will return capital. why? simple. loss. then another year of losses, and 2.5%. that is when you throw in this ere to returni capital. coming up, steven eisman of newberger berman. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ tom: this morning, it is a stronger pound. sterling is no deal. --parliament, ken they take
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can they take the brexit abate back? and the that men do , wecellor of the exchequer go shakespearean with anna on the green. max andgrounds the 737 pilots rebel over the software. it is beto. he will announce. --s is bloomberg said bloomberg "surveillance." in new york,e francine lacqua in paris. you will speak with james dimon in a few hours. what will be your theme? european banks and u.s. politics, there is quite a
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blot this quite a lot we will talk about. we are trying to get what happened in the markets this last quarter and if we will see that kind of disruption with the big bounces, hurting revenue in the rest of 20 92. -- 2019. tom: here is viviana hurtado. viviana: european council president donald tusk will push for a long brexit extension if the u.k. finds it necessary, as the british parliament votes whether to delay brexit after rejecting a no deal split. debates range from three months to 21 months. the u.s. temporarily grounding the 737 max after the crash in ethiopia. data suggests a link to an indonesian crash last year with
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the same model that -- jet. the vietnamese airline well decide on its 200 plane order for the 737 max. beto o'rourke well run for the dish will run for the presidential nomination and will for thewill run presidential nomination and will make a formal announcement. he is in the top tier of democratic candidates. in china, the slowdown deepened in the first months of the year. industrial output had the weakest start since 2009 and retail expanded the least since -- property investment jumping. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. tom: thank you so much.
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equities, bonds, currencies, with somes, sterling real strength. the dow is positioned better than good off of its summer chaos. the vix, 13.25. it is a bull market. euro-sterling, i showed that to francine in paris so she will find something on the way home. joining us now is steve eisman of newberger berman. wall street hangs on his every word. he looks long on the things that go up and short on the things that go down. steve eisman at the university of pennsylvania where he got in because he played water polo. [laughter] have all lived is this
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-- and our jim hurley was extraordinary on this out of london -- your reaction as a guy with more money than god of people moving their kids forward in the schools steve eisman went to, your thoughts? steve: i was not prepared on that. my personal view, it is terrible. my kids got into college on their own merits. i do not think they should go to schools they do not deserve to be in because it does not serve the kid. if you should go to a decent school but not harvard, then go to a decent school but not harvard because you will get swamped. tom: the ivy league kids have their most heads -- have their heads the most screwed on. news in out of dallas el paso, bloomberg confirming the speculation, mr. o'rourke
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announces his white house bid, according to the associated press. i am watching the market dynamics and far more importantly off the bloomberg terminal is news on china, the united states, and trade. china and the u.s. said to delay their meeting widely expected at mar-a-lago. steve eisman was expected to be there. does a guy like you on wall street pay attention to the political derby? steve: of course, you have to. this is a very important presidential election. this may be one of the most important in our lives, because you have a potential for a great demarcation where democrats come , they are going to attack the economic consensus
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for the last 20 years. that has big implications. whether they will win or not, i have no idea. francine: steve eisman, good morning from paris. what will people vote on in the election? is it only the economy? what do people want in the u.s.? steve: you are asking the wrong person. francine: you predicted other stuff. go for it. steve: president trump is presiding over a very strong economy, record low unemployment, and yet his ratings, positive ratings are only 40%. despite the strong economy, which normally moves elections, he is vulnerable. i cannot predict anything about politics. tom: we will speak with debbie dingell, scheduled to be with us later. that will be my question. you said in dubai you were
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looking at u.k. banks to short. can you reaffirm shorts on u.k. banks or does the brexit debate poll that away? it down have pulled somewhat, but i am still there. i have been to the u.k. three times and have talked to everybody from the taxicab lords,to the house of and there is not a single person who has any idea what will happen. anything can happen. bounced, theas real estate shop. ofng up the chart, the idea zillow being a substantial to 2018.2015 what did you see quarters ago that allowed you to institute the short? steve: one of the most important trends as the market has rewarded companies that generate
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free cash flow with very little capex. thatdoes that the most and is probably why they have gone up the most. zillow announced they were migrating away from their internet platform business and flowtake their free cash and invested into generating mortgages, and buying homes in flipping them. in january, they tripled down on that business model. in the beginning of the year, people had models of $300 forion of ebitda for zillow 2019. the estimates now a stranger $25 million. now $325timate is million. companys a platform
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trying to become a financial services company and i think it is value destructive. francine: overall, away from this particular case, how much will banks have to adapt? will we see a facebook or google go after the banks and try to become one, or do they need to adapt and adjust and by fintech to be more noble quest -- nimble? steve: if you talk to the very large banks, they live in fear of facebook, google, etc. i think jamie dimon's budget for tech this year is about $10 billion with $3 billion allocated to new tech payments. the large banks i think we'll be fine. are everybodyisk below the top five because they cannot afford to spend this kind of money. tom: steve eisman with us with a lot of news flow.
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mr. o'rourke in texas will run, according to the associated press. china news of a delay of the meeting. let's do the trading right now on china. you begin always with dollar-renminbi, a weaker renminbi, stronger u.s. dollar. european stocks moving as well and futures churning. oil with a little bit of a fractional move as well. today, ancoming up exclusive conversation with the chief executive of jpmorgan, jamie dimon. that interview is at 8:30 a.m. new york, 12:30 p.m. in london. we will talk about the future of wall street and london banks. ♪
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♪ francine: this is bloomberg i am francine" lacqua in paris at the j.p. morgan global conference. tom keene in new york. the uk's parliament rejected leaving the e.u. without a deal, sending the pound to its highest level since june. lawmakers will vote on a postponement to the march 29 are openbut the e.u. to a delay if a clear reason is given. joining us is anna edwards. how do we find out what the e.u. wants to know? question, and i
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cannot answer exactly when the answer will come. theresa may yesterday said two lengths are possible to have been asked for, one is if there is approval of her deal -- and cheap plans to bring -- she plans to bring that back next week -- and that could result in the request for a short extension. there is an alternative way that does not pass and a longer extension is requested. has said he will push the e.u. 27 to be open to the idea of a long delay if it is because the u.k. wants to come back with different red lines. that may be something they are interesting to hear across the aisle. francine: if there is a long extension, who has the upper hand in the negotiations, the u.k. or e.u.? anna: avon what the comment about the long extension, --
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even with the comment about the long extension, does that mean that is more likely? meaning andot of meaning behind everything we hear on brexit. more than 10, less than 20 days away from brexit day. we will learn more about the amendments that will be voted on today, and that should take us a step closer. you do not want no deal, but what do you want? perhaps we will get further small clues as we go throughout the day. francine: thank you so much, anna edwards at westminster. let's get back to steve eisman of newberger berman. you were short on u.k. banks. , he said you may be shorting other u.k. banks depending on the political
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situation. what is your assessment currently? steve: this situation is so fluid, it is best to wait and do nothing. i still have some strong positions in the u.k. they are not large. the results could be bad, but we will see. it is not clear the e.u. will give a delay to the u.k. it has to be unanimous and there is a chance the u.k. will ask for a delay and the e.u. will say no. tom: let's go to the chart and show the relative differential of an american bank well run. 2017, ay the summer of normalized basis, jpmorgan, barclays, and deutsche bank bundled together. are you going to make some news and tell me barclays is one of
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your shorts and not cricket? steve: not cricket. tom: you have some u.k. banks you are not happy with. it is a -- is it a property issue, revenue issue, or they just cannot compete with fortress dimon? steve: european banks generally have impaired business models because they are one and a half to two more times levered that u.s. banks. in the long, if you want to make a bet, you can buy jpmorgan and short most of the european banks and you will be fine. my thought on the u.k. banks is a brexit play. tom: can you explain why sterling went up with the chaos and meltdown yesterday? by the surprised advancement of the currency given what we have seen? steve: i am a bit surprised in
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that none of the outcomes are great for the u.k. if you get a long delay, who will invest in the u.k. if there is a 20 month delay over brexit? until theyow well have certainty about the end result. to coalesceeem around any solution whatsoever in the u.k. u.k.is negative for the long-term, one way or another. francine: if we had general elections in the u.k., what does that mean for investors? you of talked about the labour party and what jeremy corbyn stands for. is a veryemy corbyn far left politician. he is as far left as we have seen in the west in many decades , and i do not say that disparagingly.
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this is a fact. if people think jeremy corbyn could win in a general election, that would be perceived negatively by u.k. investors. staysne: steve eisman with us. , we will from paris have plenty more on some of the european economies and we will speak to the former finance minister of italy, p are carlo potter one -- p are collar carlor one -- pier padoan. ♪
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♪ francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine the quad in paris. -- francine lacqua in pairs. we are -- paris. we understand theresa may will meet with her cabinet and a couple of hours ahead of the vote in parliament to postpone brexit. so is willing to negotiate, i wonder if this is a way of getting her cabinet on board for her next plan. tom: francine lacqua with jamie dimon in a bit. steve eisman with us from newberger berman. he feels there may be share zillow,preciation in
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and marty schenker is with us as well. one more democratic candidate this morning. beto o'rourke was a legit rower. he did not go to college faking that he was in crew. he was at columbia. marty: his parents apparently did not need to do much to get him into college. he is the real deal. tom: he is a texas guy, but east coast prep school. well that resonate -- will that resonate? do not know that he has necessarily a geographic issue. what he has is this wow factor. he transcends borders. tom: the fundraising is a key
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part of it. ,id he do it as president obama little bitty with dollars, or is he finding big money? marty: very small donations, but he raised $70 million. tom: how to see separate himself from the field? there are 47 people. are you running for president? francine: god, -- steve: god, no. tom: how does he separate himself? already in the preannouncement polling in the top four or five, without even declaring his candidacy. there is definitely some energy that others will envy. tom: at the minimum, it is entertaining. eiseman --oned, mr.
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eisman talking about zillow. we have reached out to zillow for comment. i am thrilled to bring you the gentlewoman from the 12th district of michigan, debbie dingell. this will be really timely and interesting, and they will speak to her about the gentleman from delaware. anna edwards at the green at westminster and francine lacqua in pairs. -- in paris.ion look for her conversation with jamie dimon. this is bloomberg. ♪ this isn't just any moving day.
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we will be speaking to jamie dimon about global banking and where europe sits. here is viviana hurtado. viviana: china and the u.s. long not hold a summit on trade this month, bloomberg learning a meeting is more likely to happen .n april if at all u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer said major issues have not and resolved. the u.s. senate is define president trump on yemen, some republicans joining democrats to withdraw troops from the saudi led conflict having to do with the president's response to the murder of jamal khashoggi. the united kingdom parliament does not want a no deal brexit, but lawmakers have not clarified what sort of divorce they do want. the house of commons is set to
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vote on a delayed to the march 29 deadline, opening the door to a radical rewrite of the brexit settlement. theresa may is warning brexit could be delayed months. the blowback from the crash of the boeing 737 max putting $600 billion of orders at risk. on its orderdecide once the investigation is complete. lion air may cancel its order and shift to airbus. other airlines are considering their options. the u.s. has joined others in grounding the 737 max. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. and myis is a joy, political discussion of the week.
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she is the congresswoman from the 12 district of michigan. there thrilled that congresswoman could join us. i need to speak about blowing in a department of transportation that i think republicans would suggest is invisible. you have been a washington power watcher for years. why is the department of transportation in visible? rep. dingell: it is reflective of the trump administration, where you have seen all of these cabinet agencies play very differently than before. i think they are not as invisible as i would like to see them be at times, because they are out there looking at regulations, not doing regulation and really harming
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some of the industries. it took too long to decide what happen with boeing -- happened with boeing. if you look at the auto industry, looking at eliminating the standards that even the car andanies do not want, theyible to daily people, are not invisible to the people they work with. tom: your thoughts on mr. o'rourke. can he differentiate himself from the field? rep. dingell: i have not even said good morning to you. early. is too rep. dingell: i am in my office at 5:30. how many legislators do you know who do that? tom: i have fingers left over.
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rep. dingell: i think he will make it more interesting and i want to see how these candidates will do. i come from the midwest and i stick to donald trump could win and nobody believed me. i think he will excite some young people and will have different positions than some people in the race now. i have made a pledge to myself, let alone everyone else, i want to see how they interact and play. i think we are waiting for one more person to get in the race and then i think, let the race begin. francine: congresswoman, good morning from paris. when you look at the trade negotiations between the u.s. and china, will we have a meaningful trade deal? rep. dingell: we have to take a serious look at this. i think these trade deals really matter in our country needs to
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have a level playing field. i think the china issue is different from the nafta issue. have increased our trade deficit with china. we need to have a consistent, stable trade policy. the worst thing that happens to these companies is the ups and downs and you do not know at 10:00 a.m. if it will still be the same at 3:00 p.m. the president ends up not talking to us on capitol hill and telling us what the strategy is. i hope we will bring -- businesses need consistency and stability. we need to figure out where it is going, and get a stronger trade policy than we have had. i could end up supporting the president on some of these trade deals, but not what we are doing right now. francine: what does the president need to focus on to
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get the kind of trade deal you would support and like? rep. dingell: for me, after is the biggest trade issue. my area -- nafta is the biggest trade issue. the -- lost jobs by nasa nafta 1.0. well we are looking at this closed fourgm plants and put a blazer plant in mexico. that is not a strong nafta 2.0 bill. some of my colleagues have a problem with the labor peace and pharmaceutical piece, but my colleagues are inclined to support it if we can see some changes. tom: i want to get back to the politics of the moment. here is mr. riley writing it up in the wall street journal. it speaks of a gentleman from
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delaware as well. former vice president is getting the clinton treatment from liberals who seem more interested in ideological. he tests than beating the president. objectedity of blacks to a policy that used their children like guinea pigs in a to achieve more racial parity. it is easy to see them going large swaths of ohio, michigan, wisconsin that slung from obama to trump in 2016." when will the democratic party listen to debbie dingell? rep. dingell: i am one of the strongest supporters of medicare from all -- for all, but i come at it from a different perspective.
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michiganld trump won two years ago it was because he talked about trade and democrats did not. betove several candidates, is one, and if the vice president gets in, we will see issues important to working people. working people just want somebody who will care about them, who will have policies to make sure they have a job, that they can find a place to live, that they can afford a place to live, that they can go to the doctor when they need to and afford their medicine, educate their kids, and have a safe and secure retirement. sot is just common sense what democrats need to do is common sense. quite frankly, president trump did that are talking about it in the last election and whatever
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candidate does a better job talking about it and having policies that deliver for working men and women, they will win 2020. , thanke: congresswoman you so much, debbie dingell of the 12 district of michigan. today, anlater exclusive conversation with jpmorgan's chief executive officer, jamie dimon, 8:30 a.m. in new york, 12:30 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone, tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in paris.
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look for her important interview with james dimon later in the american morning. single best chart was steve eisman. steve was bringing this up, and it speaks to some of the inequality where so many people are short prosperity in america. this was my chart of the year four or five years ago, median household income with 40 years family, we knew prosperity would always be there until it wasn't. let me bring that chart did today. let me bring it forward, with a little leg up, finally back on track. are we back on track? steve: we have so far to go, it is not even funny. between 1988 and 2019, the u.s. economy grew over 2%.
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the median household income grew 6%. that is an average growth of 30 basis points. it is the difference between globalization and globalism. globalization was supposed to create prosperity for everyone. ,t created prosperity for a few and that explains economic impact on politics from populism and progressives in the united states to brexit in the u.k. to the yellow vests in france to the populists in italy. tom: what can global wall street do? eisman, you walk in the restaurant and everyone hashes, hes, youpart of -- hus are part of the gilded age. steve: this election is seminal
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because if the republicans win, the trends continue and if the democrats win, i think they will try to reverse a lot from the last 20 years. i do not think the market understands the full implication of what this could mean. francine: do you worry about the budget deficit of the u.s.? steve: i am sort of an agnostic about the budget deficit. the people who have argued the deficit is a problem have been making that argument 30 years, and the price of that risk is interest rates which have only gone down. when you make an argument for 30 ,ears and you have been wrong you need a compelling reason to show why you are right today. i have not heard a compelling argument as to why the deficit is a problem. francine: do you worry about china? i am trying to get my finger on the pulse of what you worry
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about in the u.s. economy and external factors. do you worry china will slow down or stop buying treasuries? steve: i think the u.s. market is fine, growth slightly slower 2.5% to8, anywhere from 2.5% plus a little bit. i do not think china is that big a risk unless there is no trade deal. the long-term risk to the market is politics and a change in the way government views the economy in this presidential election. this election is incredibly important. fundwe saw another hedge today go down in flames in xeric, switzerland -- xeric, switzerland -- zurich, switzerland. is the hedge fund game over?
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steve: i do not think it is over. world, it is hard to generate -- it is hard to make alpha when you are charging two and 20. there is an impact on fees and as we get to a more normalized rate world, it will be easier, but that is a long road. tom: i have a headline out, this is mr. trump. you have to help me with this. this has been widely anticipated . he is prepared to veto this important border anti-emergency border. this has been hugely contentious with gop senators and the remember, the mathematics of a veto is a little different than a straight up and down vote. .e continue with steve eisman
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let's get back to hedge funds. the challenge here of making alpha, which is that thatrential, is volatility? you look at the dampening of vol we see now. is there a permanence do it? steve: as long as rates state low -- stay low. they have a suppression effect on volatility and alpha, and we are migrating to a more normalized world, the u.s. quicker than europe. getting off europe zero rates anytime soon. i feel like they are stuck and it is hard for them to move off this zero interest rate strategy they created. francine: does that mean it will be even more painful when they get out of it? steve: the problem is, every time they try and get out of it, the market goes down and they
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back off. i do not see how europe gets out of it. it is like it is in a box. and lest they are willing to take the pain of a steep market decline, -- unless they are willing to take the pain of a steep market decline, i do not see how they will get out. the world does not function well. steve eisman from newberger berman. next, we speak to the former finance minister of italy, pier carlo padoan. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine lacqua in paris, tom keene in new york. let's focus more on europe and italy, the largest economy to sign up for the belt and road trade initiative. the government is scrambling to .ind a coherent policy on china
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the prime minister urged caution over china's influence over italy's economy and politics. padoan,us is pier carlo a former finance minister. how are the populists doing? are they finding more balanced than a couple of months ago? mr. padoan: it does not seem to be the case. there is a lot of confusion and suspended decisions that are hurting the country on infrastructure and pensions, social measures to support, lack of understanding what the financial situation is. i am concerned. francine: how much is it hurting the italian economy? mr. padoan: by raising interest rates. ands increasing uncertainty suspension of investment decisions which is slowing further growth and not helping the country getting out of the
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recession it is in. francine: there is a discussion on whether the government has to revise the government because of the lower growth projections. does he have to? mr. padoan: this is where the economy is heading, but if the nav -- next measures will be tightening, this could damage the country rather than helping the country getting out. what is lacking is a medium-term strategy. francine: are european countries and italy in particular prepared for a no deal brexit? mr. padoan: that is a good deal -- question. i am not sure we have thought it through, but there is some time left. the question is -- time left for what? is there new proposals coming out? francine: should we prepare for a no deal brexit? they want to postpone it and the commission may want a long
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extension. if you are a european country, what can you do? if i am a member of the european union, i cannot do much because this deal has been dealt with by the commission. i am fully behind their position and is something can happen, it is up to the u.k. to do so. francine: are we a little bit in termseat on europe of growth and political unity? are more than downbeat, because the question is -- is europe good for you or not? this should be clear in the mines of the european citizens -- minds of the european citizens. how would you sell europe? when you look at the tariffs and
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trade concerns between the u.s. and china, europe is almost a byproduct because trades could be imposed on automakers. are you stronger with one voice? mr. padoan: europe needs to mobilize in terms of strategy, politics, global strategy. without europe, countries have very little space to enjoy the upcoming future with the new global powers, all the new global powers coming up. it is essential that we have a european strategy. still haveoes europe a banking problem and is the only solution consolidation? bankingan: europe has a challenge and must complete its transformation in the union to allow banks more integration into the financial services. this is imperative. when we consider what has been
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happening to the american banking system and what has not happened in the european banking system in the recent past after the crisis. francine: pier carlo padoan one, thank you for joining us. coming up, we have plenty more from paris. an exclusive conversation with the ceo of jpmorgan, jamie dimon . we will ask about how european banks can, if they should compete with wall street. we will ask about china, bitcoin, and u.s. politics. , 12:30m. in new york p.m. in london. ♪
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. want more from your entejust say teach me more. into your xfinity voice remote to discover all sorts of tips and tricks in x1. can i find my wifi password? just ask. [ ding ] show me my wifi password. hey now! [ ding ] you can even troubleshoot, learn new voice commands and much more. clean my daughter's room. [ ding ] oh, it won't do that. welp, someone should. just say "teach me more" into your voice remote and see how you can have an even better x1 experience. simple. easy. awesome. >> boeing grounded the faa --
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knowing grounded. the faa worries about a safety feature of the max a it -- of the max heat. u.k. forecast, cloudy. expect some delays. the government will ask for a one-off extension. this is prime minister -- this as prime minister theresa may brings her plan for another vote. hold off on that meeting. president trump and chinese president xi puts off their meeting until april. welcome to bloomberg daybreak. i am david westin, with alix steel. in addition to that, political news this money. texas, there is a picture of him right there -- a congressman saying he will run for president. basically raced on the fact that he is very charismatic. people like him a lot and he speaks fluent spanish. alix: why not? thed: and disagrees with president on i

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