tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg March 15, 2019 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the "european close." let's get a check of the markets. in europe, a topsy-turvy day with more brexit news and economic data with the ftse 100 ending the session up 7/10 of 1%. cac 40 is up 8/10 of 1%. dax up 6/10 of 1%. in the u.s., the treasuries saw a bid today after economic data, the 10 year around the 2.60 mark. and the s&p 500 is up .5%. and broadcom up 10% after great earnings quarter. some problems on the horizon in terms of demand for --. guy: now more details on europe.
the stoxx 600 up by .5% at the moment. trading on big volume, which is significant and worth paying attention to. and the cable rate continues to push on, although there are many out there who believe it is going to be a bumpy ride for sterling going forward. we will talk about that in a moment. of those mentioned in a city note, ryanair is a big operator of the 737 and as a result of which it is suffering today, down by .5%. vonnie: let's go to the brexit update. it has been a big week in brexit land, theresa may has won some time on a final push for her rejected brexit deal, twice rejected in fact. our editor in new york is with us and has a comedic take on it,
because what are you going to do, cry or laugh? john: there is nothing for it but to laugh, so i have had quite a popular column, people seem to have liked the fact that i linked monty python skits to brexit in my latest column. and for those who do not know monty python, the black night is a character that keeps on fighting, even after both of his arms and legs have been chopped off. i see some similarities with theresa may. vonnie: he keeps on wanting to take on king arthur. there is a serious point to be made, theresa may has gone to parliament twice with a deal, she keeps saying it is different now, parliament keep saying, no. but they have not put forward a positive version of what it might like. john: they have voted down the option of allowing itself to put forward their own positive
session, things very narrow in yesterday's vote. there is still a lack of anything to vote for, apart from theresa may's deal or no deal. havingorth pointing out, reflected back to somebody fighting now with no legs and no arms, there could be movement among the hardest core brexiteers in her own party. the press is beginning to make the point that by standing out they arerexit they -- raising the risk of nothing happening at all, failing to achieve brexit. also, there are negotiations with the democratic unionist party in northern ireland, who hold the balance in parliament, they have been voting against this and have shown a propensity to be bought in the past. the guy in charge of the budget
is in those discussions and suggests there could be attempts at a not pleasant deal there, one that would gain more votes for theresa may. i do not see how the mathematics can possibly work out for her actually winning the vote in the time available, but she is still making the attempt. guy: in that film there is also a french night -- knight. he is blowing his nose in somebody's general direction added there is something about your father and mother smelling of something. john: i did link to that in my piece as well. yes. now uh, all of those quotes to the front of mind. talk about the reaction from the other side of the channel, what kind of cost do you think there will be for an acceptance of a long brexit deferral? what will be the bill associated
with that? john: britain must continue paying for that much longer, a problem in its own right. theeed unanimity from remainder of the eu to allow any extension at all beyond march 29. and they are reasonable to ask very precisely, what will you do in that time period. anything beyond talking about thrashing out the northern irish situation, an alternative for the backstop, you can imagine it is not going to fly, which complicates the situation that much further. may there is also fear that be italy or hungary could block the extension, so that looks -- but that looks doubtful. we have a chief investment officer with us. are you looking on the bright side of life with the british assets right now? >> we do not.
we do not have a position on the currency. we think that there is more downside risk than upside over the next few months, because of everything being pushed forward to the next cliff's edge. there is risk of a hard brexit, even though the mps have a voted against it. it could still happen by accident if italy or just the eu does not get approval of this extension, a hard brexit could happen by accident. and people are worried about the u.k., but i think they have gotten tired of it. we think that the large caps are more likely to benefit if we get a positive outcome. guy: what is the risk reward among the mid-caps? the symmetry would point to greater downside there. >> i think that is consensus. if we get a positive result, large caps will do more, it is local domestic investors looking at them, it is the global investors and when they allocate
to the u.k. it will be the ftse 100's who will be there. i think everybody would expect the ftse 25o to outperform, but i do not know if it will. we have risks in other places. the ftse 250 is not cheap. vonnie: what is the best case for tuesday evening, supposing the vote will take place? >> another embarrassing defeat for theresa may, she will probably inch a little bit closer. if she gets it through on the fourth one, it is hard to see who will change their minds because there is nothing provoking a change of mind, other than we are just closer to the proverbial cliff's edge. vonnie: anything not absurd about the situation? theresa may has a mandate to bring a deal to parliament and get it passed and go to europe and say this is how we want to exit, yet it is not happening in matter which way she turns or
parliamentarians -- it is not happening, so any positive vision for how this could work? john: at this point i do not see it. speaking to a british person from an irish person, if it was not for the irish issue it is quite possible that without that we would have a deal that quite a lot of brexiteers did not like but would have passed. vonnie: it is a problem because it crystallizes everything about what is a problem, customs or no customs, and the only reason that the northern ireland question makes it so much of a blockage is because there is potential for violence down the road, maybe, but that is what makes it urgent. john: exactly, and the way tony blair put it, i do not think he has much influence anymore, but he put it that parliament is basically taking incompatible positions. treatiesng the eu, the
that form the eu involves breaching the good friday agreement. thoughtdy apparently that went through it until after the british public had been invited to vote to breach of the eu treaty. the only way i can see this, that it is conceivable to meet sitting at a distance, but i do not think that many british people are feeling the same way, is it becomes much more obvious that the eu was extremely useful in finding a way out of this dreadful situation in northern ireland, bearing in mind that we have had news of a prosecution of a soldier that killed demonstrators on bloody sunday more than 40 years ago, that was rather a positive thing that the eu delivered -- i suppose that we have some greater vision of what the eu provided. in terms of anything that will leave britain better off, i vot ed remain so i am biased, but i
do not see anything like that. guy: one of the attributes of whyu.k. that has held up on they have done well in financial services, if the u.k. was to go down the route of trying to use the vienna convention on treaties, how undermined would that be? this again sounds slightly ridiculous. john: that was another when i tried to work out and i could not think of a monty python sketch that encapsulated that one. i think the other problem we have is the other great advantage along with the rule of giving theow, legal system to other countries, is the actual lack of a constitution that great britain can make things up as a goes along in quite an interesting fashion compared to the much more legalistic way, in which you have to do business here in the states or in many countries
on the continent. it is at this point that we are seeing the lack of a constitution. it is not clear exactly where power resides, it is not clear wherey how the -- they exhibit of stops or parliament begins. and it is not clear exactly what the status of this referendum should be. we have one example of direct democracy completely countermanded an example of representative democracy. i do not think that means britain is going to leave the eu and then suddenly decided it will have a written constitution, but the weakness of the system is very painfully apparent now. guy: i think there is a quote from brian's mother about making it up as you are going along, which probably could have worked in this scenario. [laughter] i want to bring news to everybody. the russian oligarch suing the u.s. treasury to block sanctions
against him, this has been a story that has affected the aluminium market over the last few years, anyway, we will come back to that in a moment when we get more details. i want to come back to park your -- to patrick. i want to get the kind of story from the other side of the english channel, you have long favored european banks, particularly french banks. linking it to brexit, has there been an advantage to the french banks as a result of brexit and why do you believe now the french banks represent a good place to park your money? patrick: i think there has been a benefit to the eurozone as you have had jobs moved to the eurozone, by i do not think it has favored french banks. the reason i like them is they are low capitalized, the ratios are at 12%, a dividend yield of 7%, that is a 50% payout ratio on their earnings. and so if they reach 75% of tangible book value, that is a
50% return. they are still yielding 5.5%, trading below 10 times earnings, so there is pessimism negatively priced into them and they are trading at depressed multiples. we got them last year and they have fallen about 10% from there, adding in the dividend, but they have just performed not as well as people hoped, but not dissimilar to what you would've hoped for. the revenues are down a little bit, profit margins are down a little bit, but the capital ratio has improved, so i do not know what the capitalist -- what the catalyst will be, but when something gets cheap it can go higher. vonnie: how much upside to use the there -- do you see there? patrick: i think there is 50% upside in banks. i do not know what the catalyst will be, a merger between banks, we do not own the german
banks, but anything that can improve catalyst could set the banks flying. if a cross-border takeover was ever allowed, in the u.s. bank or canadian bank, in the acquisition of the european bank would be incredibly -- for the bottom line to its multiples and book value, so these are my big case. something like that could set off something in these banks as well. guy: patrick armstrong joining us from plurimi wealth. thank you very much indeed. now first word news. world leaders expressing condolences and condemnation today following the deadly attacks on mosques in new zealand. estsident trump said, "warm sympathies and best wishes to the people of new zealand." queen elizabeth ii said that she
was "deeply saddened by the events." the prime minister has said it is a rising tide of islamic phobia. fortinet people were killed in two mosques in the city of christchurch, more than 20 seriously wounded in with the prime minister calls a terrorist attack. one man has been charged with murder. officials in france have begun analyzing flight recorders from the crash in ethiopia. they were damaged in the crash and it is unclear whether data can be retrieved. in the meantime, authorities in ethiopia are collecting dna samples from family members to assist in identifying remains. all 157 people on board the plane it were killed. a former trump aide is not ready to be sentenced because it is still helping with several investigations, according to a new court filing in robert mueller's probe. gates is a central figure in the
uellerinvestigation -- m investigation as well as others in new york into foreign lobbying. rick gates pleaded guilty to charges of conspiracy and making false statements last year. john bolton denies that he and the secretary of state created an atmosphere of hostility at last month's nuclear summit in vietnam. north korean officials say that president trump was willing to speak with kim, but was influenced by demand and "gangst er like stance." john bolton says that is inaccurate. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you. coming up, more on boeing, the shares of spiking on a report of a software fix coming within 10 days.
guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the "european close." let's check global markets. weekil: we are ending the with a rally for the major averages. take a look at the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq, all on pace for weekly gains. this is a mixed picture as investors are going toward growth and haven bonds at the same time, try to figure out what is going on. one reason we have these at session highs, the dow was lower earlier.
boeing, we have quite a reversal. now up 2.4%. not long ago a french news agency came out with a headline saying the company would roll out software for the 737 max 8 within 10 days. boeing itself has commented, saying on the timing of the software update, saying it will come in the coming weeks. a little bit of a difference there between 10 days and coming weeks. one analyst says this will not much help anyway because it has to do with so many sensors, it seems unlikely that one upgrade could help. more on that as the day goes on. as for the tech movers, we have investors buying up high quality shares, microsoft and apple the top boost for the s&p 500. facebook is down for two, down on the week 2%, and after yesterday the news of a senior executive, chris cox, some thinking he would take over for mark zuckerberg at some point,
he departed. and guidance for the second quarter is not so great. and for the s&p 500, we have a chart coming to us. this is the s&p 500 in a trading all up, chris campbell, a strategist using this based on moving averages over the near-term. right now, heading to the high takings&p 500 at 2827, out 2800. the high level is 2821, interesting to see what will happen on the close because this has not been pierced to the upside, except for maybe one or two sessions. and it has been a bullish week in the u.s. and in europe, also in asia. let' take a look at the weekly movess in the u.s., along with a global indexes. the s&p 500 and nasdaq on pace for the best week of the year. dax up nearly 2%. take a look the shanghai composite, up 1.8%, and of course last week all of these indexes were down.
so it has been a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears. . guy: interesting to see more leadership coming through with the u.s. markets. so coming up, we are counting down to the end of the week and the end of trading in europe. the stoxx 600 is up by 7/10 of 1%. volume is sizable today. is definitely higher. technology, telecoms insurance, all trading to the upside. basic resources in negative territory. this is what the individual stocks look like with gains across most of the markets. and as a result of which, this is back into what is going on. c slightly00, ca outperforming, up just over 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the "european close." it is time for the latest bloomberg business flash come a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. boeing has just reaffirmed the timing of a software update for the now grounded 737 max jet. boeing says the software update will be deployed in the coming weeks. shares have reversed declines after it was reported that the fix is coming in roughly 10 days. jets were grounded after a second fatal crash of the new jet last weekend in ethiopia. and bmw reporting a profit margin from automaking last year
that beat a lower target. the company battled u.s. china tensions and pressure on prices in europe. bmw's automotive return on sales fell from 9.2% to 7.2%. and that is your latest bloomberg business flash. checking the u.s. markets, a turnaround for boeing really giving the dow jones industrial average some boost. it is up seven cents of 1%. -- a 7/10 of 1%. closend going toward the in europe committees and volume, markets are trading higher with technology stocks the performers. "the close" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ want more from your entertainment experience?
just say teach me more. into your xfinity voice remote to discover all sorts of tips and tricks in x1. can i find my wifi password? just ask. [ ding ] show me my wifi password. hey now! [ ding ] you can even troubleshoot, learn new voice commands and much more. clean my daughter's room. [ ding ] oh, it won't do that.
welp, someone should. just say "teach me more" into your voice remote and see how you can have an even better x1 experience. simple. easy. awesome. guy: 30 seconds until the end of regular trading this afternoon in europe. we are wrapping up the week, a positive session with a lot of bright green for the european
markets. cac quarante having a strong session, the spanish markets doing well as well. portugal finishing down a little bit. the european markets on the front foot, most sectors are trading higher. ftse 100 is up by 7/10 of 1%. we have seen the miners providing some weakness. dax trading up by 8/10 of 1%. the outperform or is the cac quarante. really solid volume today. the reason for that, we are getting expiry is coming through. you can see that on the screen, stoxx 600 there. and hopefully we will see that in a moment as well. and there you go coming can see the step up. a similar thing in the u.s. you only really see this kind of a difference when we are dealing with expiries. some individual names. this is the picture for wirecard and ryanair. wirecard is trading down.
we have another angle on the scandal that is gripping wirecard at the moment. down,m is trading lowering prices. the market did not like that. ryan air is coming back up to the neutral level. ed noted that they were cit as an airline that could be affected by the grounding of the 737 max. it applies almost exclusively -- flies almost exclusively the 737, so they think it will be affected by that. it is impacting things here little bit as well. but also we are reversing moves from earlier with the 10 year this backup to 2.60%, after economic data last night, the yield the theme below that. we were at 2.48 and change at one point. and a boeing recovery affecting
the dow, making things a little bit brighter on this friday. the s&p 500 up to 2828. and crude oil is down ever so slightly. we have talked about azerbaijan. we will see how the prices move on monday. right now, 58.40 for a barrel of crude. and now we will take a look at the global macro movers, see what we have today. it is a green screen in terms of equities. france, latin america and china experiencing gains. this on china's stimulus news overnight. emergingu can see, market currencies performing well today on the back of dollar weakness. guy: boeing is one of the stories affecting the market. and the company has reaffirmed the timing of a software update for the now grounded 737 max 8
jets, the update will be deployed in the coming weeks. on theares going higher timeline that it could be shorter. let's talk about how boeing fixes this problem. there is a said we will see the software upgrade being put in to the stalled software system, but will it be enough to satisfy the regulators, or do they want additional sensors to be applied to the aircraft as well? >> we are talking about the software fix, a quick fix, it takes about one hour to download and reports say it will require the system to rely on data from two sensors. it was previously dependent only on one sensor, and when we saw it misfire, as was the case in these crashes, presumably, it could cause the system to force in the plane's nose down.
it will limit the amount of pressure that the system could put on the nose, which could mitigate the likelihood of a crash. the question is whether or not the faa will require additional steps, and to know that we need to have the outcome of the investigation from the ethiopian airlines crash. we do not have that yet. we are expecting an update over the weekend. regardless, we want to see boeing go through some hoops. they have their reputation on the line, so likely to see some mandates for testing and other certification procedures. vonnie: so within 10 days, according to a source, with boeing reaffirming it will be in the next several weeks. thehe time in urgent -- is timing urgent? brooke: i think the big question is why it was not more urgent before, because we had the lion air crash in october and there
are reports that the faa and boeing did go back and forth on the software fix. with a lack of a fix potentially contributing to the ethiopian airlines crash. i think that urgency is the name of the game, but you want to make sure that you get this right. grounded and i think they want to be 1000% sure before they put them back in the air. guy: can i come back to the issue of the hoops boeing may have to jump through to get this aircraft back in the air. there was not a certification process as you progressed from the 802 the max -- 800 to the max, if they put more sensors in the system will they have to recertify the whole frame? brooke: you raise an interesting point, they sort of rejiggered an existing design to but these new engines on the plane, that
through off the center of gravity for these planes. they did not go through a complete recertification for that and i think that that decision by boeing and the faa to allow them to proceed with that is now under a harsh spotlight and i think you will see people asking questions about whether or not that right -- that was the right move. and does boeing need to redesign the airplane, come up with a new design and spend the money on that and get an airplane designed for these engines. vonnie: boing is still up -- well, boeing is still up. now first word news. mark: president trump is meeting with his military chiefs at the pentagon today. one likely topic of discussion will be the final battle to retake islamic state' last pocket of territory in syrias. patrick shanahan also faced questions from senators on thursday about the president's
desire to use $7 billion in military construction project funds to pay for a border wall. the and ministration is facing opposition from the afghan government, which says it is being left in the dark on u.s. talks with the taliban. and the u.s. is ramping up the pressure on russia over a november attack on ukrainian ships and soldiers in the -- strait. the government is sanctioning a dozen defense firms and individuals involved. steven mnuchin says that russia's continued aggression against ukraine cannot go unchecked. after the sanctions were announced, a russian businessman said he is suing the treasury department, seeking a court order to have the sanctions lifted. the british prime minister is hoping to pull off an against the odds rescue of her european union divorce deal after the parliament voted to postpone brexit to avert a chaotic departure in two weeks. the prime minister plans to
spend the next few days trying to persuade opponents in her conservative party to support the withdrawal agreement, which parliament has defeated twice. 20 people, mostly children, have been confirmed dead in a school collapse in nigeria. more than 40 people were pulled alive from the rubble after the wednesday instant -- incident. the building had been marked for demolition and the school was operating illegally, say witnesses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. let's take a look at where the stocks have a finished. this is the final numbers. we did see a little bit during the auction for the ftse 100 and cac quarante, not a big move,
but a little dip. a solid volume day for european markets. the technology sector is the best performing one in europe. if you are done for the week and getting in the car, driving somewhere and you want to carry on with coverage on the markets, tune in on digital radio in the london area to "the cable" show. find us on all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪
emergency the president is ready to use his veto for the first time. we will go to kevin cirilli at the white house. when do we anticipate the word will come out that the veto is being enforced, will it be a public event? kevin: yes, the president says he is ready to use a veto, the first time he would have to do so after a rebuke from republicans in the senate who joined every democrat in the senate to say that the declaration of a national emergency along the u.s.-mexico border is unconstitutional. the group of republicans who joined with the democrats, more than 10 of them are running the spectrum of conservatism on the ideological bar. we have a centrist lake susan collins, we have rand paul, and new members like mitt romney, he was asked about it yesterday in the halls of congress and it said that this was a key area of disagreement he has with president trump. the math is on the side of the
president, it is unlikely that once the president does decide to veto this that there are votes in the senate that would allow the senate to override the veto, but otherwise -- but either way this is a chance for the president to present himself as an outsider to his base, but also a political warning sign that republicans, led by mitch mcconnell, are not going to just blindly follow the president on policy issues. vonnie: ok, kevin cirilli, thank you. tesla, theturn to shares are lower today on cash concerns. this after elon musk unveiled the new is a vehicle for the company, a crossover known as the model y. david welsh is here. the whole event seems underwhelming for a car launch, therefore you have to question whether it was a car launch. have hadwe it -- have we had a car launch or a meeting
exercise? -- media exercise? >> i think from the onset we are talking about a car launch, but go to the website they wanted $2500 deposit for a model y. when they did the model 3, they only wanted $1000, and for a model y you are looking at least at a year away, some think it will be 2020 by the time it comes off the line. that is a lot of money and it has renewed concerns that tesla needs cash. take a look at the numbers. $3.7 billion at the end of the year, they just paid off $9 billion in debt, and they have to pay more in november. a lot of cash. and the model y, albeit it is very similar to the model 3, you still need new tooling, and he has a lot of other ambitions,
including a semi truck, building out the charging infrastructure and service infrastructure to send people out to repair model 3's. all of that costs cash. i think that investors think there will be another capital race of some kind. vonnie: when apple was trying to grab market share it cap being over-the-top, each a generation of the iphone had a something onlynd wild, it is recently that apple has not worried about really surprising people, because it already has the market share, doesn't tesla need to keep surprising people for awhile? out, we have not to give it a chance, but it is only 10% larger than a model 3. it is not a vastly bigger vehicle. when we are talking about crossovers, the heart of the vehicle market right now, it is what consumers want, 70% of americans are now purchasing an
suv or pickup truck, but they all look the same. they kind of do the same thing. they drive nicely and they have more seating and a storage. but they are not super exciting. so for tesla this is not about sizzle, this is getting into the heart of the market where the action is. not exciting from a consumer standpoint, but from an investor standpoint that is where they could get sales volume, but we have to wait at least a year to see how this model does and what it does for the cash flow of the company. and just in terms of making it a consistent and profitable enterprise. guy: david, similar to a 3, will there be cannibalization? david: i think there will be. i think that many people are buying the model 3 because it is a tesla that they can afford. the brand is really hot. and if you really want in a letter to vehicle, most others -- an electric vehicle, most
others are small hatchbacks. this one is pretty cool. that is why people are getting into the model 3. now we have a crossover suv, which is what people are really buying, so maybe they will get that instead of the model 3, they will go for the model y. but there is still a lot of growth here for tesla because they will be selling in china and europe, and as the u.s. market shifts from sedans to crossovers, tesla will become another player competing in that space and they can get into the heart of the market. there will be cannibalization, but they also have the ability to take market share from others and grow as they get the car out and production up. vonnie: tesla has a legal, financial and demand problems, can all of those concerns be overridden? david: no, the legal problems, we do not know yet.
we have to wait and see. problems, part of this is just the car market itself in the u.s. it is slowing down in the u.s., it has taken a step back in china. so while there is a lot of admiration for the tesla brand and a lot of consumer interest in electric vehicles, they are facing that a bit. will they continue going forward? the dynamic for electric vehicles is different. he will not defy gravity just because the car is electric, but however people want one and as we see more electric vehicles hit the road and a sort of tells other consumers it is ok to own one, it is not such a hassle, you will see more demand for something like a tesla. and as you see more charging stations out there, you will see more demand as well. that is the good news for elon musk and getting demand for the
model 3 and y. the bad news is everybody else is coming out with them. gm has more coming out by 2023. all the german brands are coming out with ev's. and he will see other competitors, toyota as well, following suit. as they become more commonplace, it will help everybody, but that means more competition and elon musk might have to spend more money on marketing eventually. guy: you go to norway and it is incredible how many you see there. david welch joining us on the tesla story. vonnie: time for our stock of the hour. broadcom shares heading for their best day in four years, surging more than 10% to a record after the company reiterated its full-year guidance. we can breathe a sigh of relief on semiconductors. kailey: it seems that way. broadcom is reiterating their guidance, revenue at $2.5 billion, leaving it unchanged
where the street was expecting them to cut guidance because of headwinds facing the sector, and they also beat in the first quarter, despite what morgan stanley called the hardest environment in nearly a decade. nonetheless, profit topped expectations. growth margins expanding in a big way now at 55.4%. and semiconductor revenues did come in a little bit weaker, but still this is much stronger than the street was expecting. the street has been quick to react. take a look to see the wave of price target of grades today, 13 different shops hiking their price target on the back of this reaffirmation of their guidance, this is a sign that they will improve in the second half of the year with demand and a broadcom's ceo reinforcing that. he said that he thinks there will be a significant meaningful growth going forward. guy: miller knox is the only
stock down today, every thing else is higher, so i guess the price action follow-through is strong. kailey: it is and broadcom is a heavyweight in that index, so really leading the stocks higher. they are up more than 3% today. and after the rally we have seen for most of the year, now up about 20% year to date, as we have seen this growing -- the signs that may be demand is improving and broadcom is reinforcing that idea today. vonnie: kailey leinz with the best performer of the s&p 500 today, broadcom. coming up, guy is performing in our global battle of the charts today, facing off against jessica summers. this is bloomberg. ♪
global battle of the charts. you can see them on the bloomberg by running gtv . here is jessica summers. jessica: i want to take a look today at the oil market, because it seems like we are setting up for a further rally in crude. the white line is the wto crude, the other line is the moving -- 50 day moving average, poised to move above the 100 day moving average. this is a bullish signal. you can see the uptrend in crude since the december low, rallying about 35%. that is very impressive. if the 50 day holds above the 100, it will invite buyers into the market. vonnie: very nicely done, jessica summers. that was a great chart, especially given that opec is meeting in azerbaijan this weekend. do you have something to be that -- beat that? guy: we are talking about the pound at the moment, so let's
talk about the volatility of sterling. i expect on monday morning traders will be wondering which direction to take. there is tension at the moment. they are balancing out the long positions, setting up tension in the market, the volatility is a feature of this. it is difficult to really pull the directional story. volatility, realized volatility, has been elevated as well, so backed up in real life. what is interesting is a lot of people have thought that hey, isn't the pound trading exactly or more so like an emerging market currency? let me give you evidence for that. this is the pound's realized volatility next to the turkish lira's volatility. that has been coming down, we saw a bumpy ride for the turkish lira last year, but nevertheless
what we have started to see is the pound overtaking that. for the last few days we have seen pound realized volatility higher than the turkish lira's realize volatility, speaking to the extreme position that the pound is finding itself in. vonnie: you can see that chart on gtv as well. and it really pains me, particularly on a friday, to have to tell you, guy, you did not quite beat jessica's chart. jessica summers is the winner this friday. youking the u.s. markets, can see that we have a nice rally today. next.s continues this is bloomberg. ♪