tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 18, 2019 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
by the bond or equity market. the other thing that does not get as much attention as what happens with the dollar and currency in general with respect to all global central bank activities, unfortunately the big drag on the s&p 500 from an earnings perspective to the are most exposed dollar. i start to get concerned as we go on with this rally, if the marked -- if the multinationals continue to lead, it is implied that the dollar will eventually turn over. and whatatch the dots happens with the dollar. >> let's have a look at the s&p 500, up 0.4%. >> pretty striking. , it one of those days
doesn't look like much but it is a solid gain. >> let's dive deeper. up, piece of that melt microsoft. microsoft up seven days in a row. some are saying there is a rotation into software. this is a chart of the s&p 500 in white. microsoftigher than but both basically in the same direction. true in the fourth quarter selloff but now microsoft leading this year on the big rally, hitting that all-time high, suggesting we could. 500, whether facebook or microsoft turns out to be the better tell on the direction. >> energy is up 1.4%.
29 members in the index, every single one of them in the green. if you take a look at a year to date chart, you can see the energy sector up about 15.9%. as of friday, energy was the fourth best performing sector. now it is number three but it is neck and neck with industrial. >> when we talk about whether this rally is going to continue, keep in mind we are seeing more activity by retail investors. , they saw some pretty significant inflows in the recent week. if you throw in the vanguard funds, that takes you to about $11 billion, the most we have seen on a weekly basis. withof this had to deal
on friday.e did a lot of strategists we talked to say they are noticing some encouraging signs. scarlet: great summary. from with us is eric russell investments. you were telling us that you don't see the fed surprising markets are investors at all this week. if that is the case, what will be the catalyst for investors to either get in on equities or perhaps get out and not buy the dip proposition that is driving things higher. if not the fed, would it be trade talks, brexit perhaps? >> i think it would be trade talks. you probably need a resolution to the trade talks with china in particular. -- you are probably also
going to need continued clarity from the fed. the economic growth rate in china and the rest of the world is picking up. reality here is trade resolution, growth outside the united states picking up are actually going to be europe and emerging markets. expectsy really something major out of the fed this week. that being said, there have been that the fedeports would maybe do a rethink on its policy, maybe target average inflation. if the fed were to actually change its posture on inflation, is that bullish, or does that create problems for companies in terms of wages, margins, things like that? >> i think it is a combination of the two.
the more dovish they are, the less pressure on interest rates moving higher. on the other end of the spectrum, it is a little bit mixed. is through on wages margins. we are seeing higher wages pressure margins. thing.ively short-term growth creating a trough in earnings through the first half and a recovery through the second half. if the fed doesn't allow the , then ito run to hot becomes a problem. i would say that is not the issue for the index right now. pricing power is still relatively strong. you should see that turnaround in the second half but who knows? it is something of a guesstimate at this point. >> what about global stocks?
what about the emerging markets, which seems to be one of the most crowded trades out there at the moment? tradeis a fairly crowded relative to where it was nine months ago. but i think it has a lot more room to run. i think people need to recalculate that china is going to achieve a soft landing. the dollar, because of the fed being on the sideline, is probably not strengthened further. we see -- in general, monetary policy is at least as accommodated as in the u.s. >> let's turn our attention back , aeight u.s.-based stock canadian company, but one of the first ones to do an ipo in the u.s. when it comes to
cannabis-related. it was 2% above analyst estimates. this is a company worth about -- with about eight $7 billion market cap -- with about a $7 billion market cap. noting, always worth lot of cannabis companies have had an extraordinary start to 2019. not tilray. it is basically exactly where it was at the end of last year. it had its crazy move. much more subdued action now. caroline: 2018 was a successful year for tilray with many corporate milestones. they will need to show the growth. analysts are saying probably about three or 4%. let's get back to our conversation about global stocks. your perspective on the risk reward and where people are
looking to put money to work. what is it about the most unloved trade in europe? >> the most unloved trade is europe. the second most unloved trade is in the u.s. it has been persisted for several years and yet u.s. stocks continue to defy expectation. and a lot of that is related to the currency. it suggests there is capital inflow in the u.s. dollar rise itself is indicative of money coming into the united states. until the currency turns over, i think it will be really tough for u.s. stocks to over perform. we saw something really similar throughout the 1990's. global growth was really robust. now, global growth is pretty
weak. u.s. stocks are outperforming as the currency is strong. i think you want to take account of the fact that the currency has an impact. of the worlde rest is a lot cheaper than the u.s.. but for timing that trade, you have to consider what's going on with that currency. >> thank you so much. , theto recap, tilray cannabis company, reporting fourth-quarter revenue that was 2.6% above analyst estimates. the stock now moving higher. bouncing around here in after hours trade. as for the bottom line, fourth-quarter loss per share was $.33. that doesn't for the closing bell. next, "what'd you miss." this is bloomberg. ♪
from bloombergs world headquarters in new york, and caroline hyde. higher, 2832sing on the s&p 500, highest since october. opec and allies delay a decision on cuts as the strain shows again between russia and saudi. one investor says cannabis could industry inn dollar two years time. in looking to create the netflix
for videogames as apple rolls out a bundle looking to compete with the streaming giant. we begin on opec. boil hitting a high for the year will reaffirm a commitment to cuts. the agreed to affirm decision on whether to extend that until june. the saudi energy minister weighed in. consumer,e see the the impact on inventory, we are not going to change course. caroline: let's welcome in cornerstone global economist jan stewart. is this positive or negative for the market? think it is positive in that it is one last week of headlines this way or that way. caroline: i'm sure the oil
reporters -- a sense that opec will find a way to keep production tamped down, or is there not enough impetus? jan: i think they were clear about that. they want these inventories down. they want them more normal. also what i thought was quite interesting, we had no where near high enough to guarantee investment in the sector. have a view of what it would take to maintain stable investment? at $60, the u.s. shale does just fine. at $65, the global industry is doing deepwater. caroline: this is wti? jan: brent.
side, they kind of work all right. -- question becomes caroline: what about the tweet factor. how much do you think that matters if trump could weigh in at any moment? jan: we suspect it will matter a great deal about a year from now if you find yourself in a dragged out election fight with a formidable democratic opponent , then the tweet thing will probably get more active. , it allre, right now seems fine, why bother? seems a comfortable spot early for now. opec is probably at a stage now it can move the market exactly where it used to. we talk about the impact of russia and shale, how much
confidence do you have that opec will be able to move prices? jan: i think that opec plus is really quite powerful. in terms of share of treated oil, saudi plus russia is a formidable duo. if they align their goals. over history, you have learned tend to align quite easily. joe: let's talk about the demand side. the story of the global economy is really that the u.s. is doing fine but there are really no other bright spots in the world particularly. i'm curious if you accept that take and what the oil markets see? jan: we at cornerstone macro think that the global economy is in a beautiful spot. the biggest difference maker in
that regard is china. atna has been stimulating about 67 decreed measures since last may. we think those measures are starting to elicit a bit of a response. we think things like credit have been eased. we think bank reserve requirements have been lowered. stimulating housing, investing in good old-fashioned infrastructure, railroad investments for instance. on a number of different playing fields, beijing seems to be goosing that economy. caroline: even if it is credit driven? many people worry about the bubble situation. jan: then there is new monetary policy. credit is a worry. do -- as anu economist, let's say you are sitting in chicago and you look from that ivory tower at china
and you say, maybe you are not allocating things as optimally as a market would. beijing knows that and they are trying to manage that. so far, they've done a good job. we think that is one of the biggest different makers this year. what do you think about venezuela? jan: it is a big problem. during the power outages, the sum total of exports reduced to about zero. we don't really know how the situation results. we think everybody, washington and the rest of the americas as well, and hope for a quicker transition, something that was more responsible, shall we say, in caracas. fromthank you, jan stuart cornerstone macro. butg event on march 25, that is not stopping them from debuting products a little
lookine: it's time for a at what stories are trending. people reading about chatham asset management, a hedge fund that owns the national enquirer. worked together with former trump fixer michael cohen . now onto this one. bloomberg.com has a story on gwyneth paltrow's lifestyle brand goop. the company, which launched as a newsletter for recipes and products a decade ago, has
dominated among women seeking alternatives for traditional medicine. branches.vey in some employees took's part in a photo shoot where they wore different outfits. at can find all the stories bloomberg.com and on tictoc on twitter. big event on its march 25, apple debuted some of its new products including a revamp of the ipad many, and a new ipad air. tell us about the new ipad and where the company is going with the strategy around this product? apple put the ipad line in high-end and low-end models. last year, the low-end around $330, and the high-end model
around $1600. this is a mid tier model. to do that, they are bringing back two of their older models, the ipad air, essentially the ipad pro at a lower price point. faster processor but not as good camera specifications. also upgrading the ipad many for the first time since 2015. that is something a lot of people were asking for and looking forward to. which type of consumer are they going for? are they trying to get existing customers to upgrade or are they trying to reach out to many people who don't actually own an ipad at the moment? >> i think this is both. the new ipad many will surely appeal to people who had older versions of the ipad many who can't run the latest apps, aren't compatible with the newest services. this ipad air is a way to switch
people over from some of the lower cost pc laptops. this is not an education-geared device like the cheaper laptop, the model which a lot of schools tend to buy in bulk. caroline: how much of this is important to take on nexis when it comes to streaming videos and getting some articles online? should we read into the ipad in some way facilitating that move? >> what apple is doing is basically clearing the deck. this is not the only announcement we will be seeing this week. they want to get everything out the door and basically make the conversation about their new services on march 25. caroline: we thank you. a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. the new york times is reducing the number of stories it is given to apple's news app. going tos as apple is
be unveiling a subscription outlet for next week. new york times ceo mark thompson says the paper is also limiting the amounts of stories it puts on facebook. facebook's recent pivot toward privacy and encrypted messages. from buy toraded hold. bank of america merrill lynch cut the price target from $205 to $187. google is preparing to unveil a new service that could be like netflix but for video games. it will allow people to play fortnight and other titles in a web browser or on other hardware. if it is successful, it could start the biggest shift in the gaming market since super mario jumped across from arcade to your living room. guys, the google is touting its announcement plan tomorrow with this video trailer.
heart racing stuff. the key question is, am i going to have to get more than by google chromecast? it's a big tunnel, big unveiling into gaming. how expensive is the hardware? why is google set up for this? >> are publishers going to let google wind this area? >> that's the big issue. you have to get all these publishers to go along with that, most of whom i think have been pretty vocal that this is not the direction they want to go, at least just not yet. centipede,mes like pac-man, games i can relate to. >> it does seem like one of these things that you hear about , and some people talk about netflix itself getting into this space.
the technical challenges are obviously gigantic to have the high quality in the cloud like that. >> in then the consumer base, they seem to react pretty hard to certain types of changes if they don't like them. >> but the prizes massive if they get it. caroline: it seems like a no-brainer. we've done it for music. amazon, google, they are the ones with the servers. they are the ones who should be able to get that lack of latency. >> i'm also keeping a close eye on tilray. the shares moved a little bit higher after hours though they did miss pretty heavily. the third-quarter loss per share was $.33. the estimate was for $.13. they did beat a little bit on revenue. this is a stock that people aren't really trading based on the fundamentals. they are trading based on the hope of what the company could be. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: bloomberg's first word news. dutch police say they have arrested a suspect in today's deadly shooting on a tram in the city of utrecht. three people were killed, nine others wounded. officials are calling it a terror attack. the dutch finance ministers said the attacker, identified as a turkish born man, was known to authorities and had a criminal record. international authorities continue to warm the victims of last -- continue to mourn the victims of last week's massacre in new zealand. in london today, mayor sadiq
khan led a vigil. there are people around the world were feeling frightened. the things they practice the faith they practice made them a target. means calling out and exposing those in positions of articulate messages of hate and division. khan continued, "we feel the ripples of hate, the ripples of fear, and sorrow." five years after moscow declared crimea russian territory.
some called for the release of ukrainian sailors attained by the russian navy and coast guard in waters off ukraine in november. >> the european union has been united and firm in saying there is no justification for the use of military force in russia against ukrainian vessels. mark: russian president vladimir putin marked the anniversary today. new power plants, part of moscow's efforts to upgrade infrastructure. they blocked shipments of crimea-bound cargo after moscow annexed to the region in 2014. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. noted economist alan
krueger passed away over the weekend. his family issued a statement saying he took his own life. he served as chair of the council of economic advisers for president obama before adjourning -- before joining princeton. for more on his legacy, we are joined by economic editor for bloomberg businessweek. i've been really struck all day by the outpouring of positive feelings people had towards alan krueger, people from all different fields. academia, media, politics. talk to us about the legacy and policy,e had on government, and so on. >> there was something magnetic about him, charismatic. he appeared regularly on bloomberg tv, gave quotes to bloomberg reporters for news stories. he was giving.
he was the kind of person -- i have seen it, grad students, he would come up to them and want to talk to them. and he cared about policy. a lot economists are very taken with their own theories, but he made it real world. one of his key legacies is the work on minimum wage. the conventional thinking on the minimum-wage's was that if you raised it, it would cost jobs. he found in a critical experiment that when the minimum wage was raised in new jersey, it did not cut jobs versus across the state line in pennsylvania. that work has since been developed much further by other economists. >> one of the recent studies he tried to apply to policy was addressing the opioid epidemic and how the deaths and illnesses for that were affecting the labor market, particularly for white men of a certain age. ofhe found close to half
white men of a certain working age who were not in the labor force were taking prescription opioids or painkillers of one kind or another. that led to the idea that it is part of this crisis that a lot of other economists have picked up on. determined to be a crisis just recently, just take a few years ago prior to the trump administration. so that is sort of one example of where his policy ideas sort of went into -- >> one of the things that was great about adam -- about alan krueger was that he was hungry for data. he also had instrumental variables approach to sifting, to finding patterns that other economists have missed. caroline: what a brilliant economist we've lost. policyo he saw economic not as an abstract theory but as
a way to make people's lives better. also, he was fun, enjoyed pop culture, talking about concert tickets, how prices surged, and suddenly musicians can make a better living. use rock 'n' roll and concerts in his freshman economics course in princeton. he had a book out -- coming out rockonomics."led " he was a huge fan of springsteen. it will be a while before his full legacy is completely understood. how much will it be what you were talking about, seeking out different kinds of data, sifting them in different ways rather than a specific area about an approach that other generations of economists will take? >> i think it is an
and the cannabis space overall, cb one capital management founding partner todd harrison. the products.d in before we get to the market overall, how are these companies, when you look at a tilray, how is the market treating them? byi think tilray is in a box itself somewhat. from a short standpoint, there's no borrow. has dictated the price movements and little more. we don't own tilray. we own some of its peers in canada, organagram or aurora. tilray is a little bit rich for us on metrics. you talk about big numbers, a fantastically big
number when it comes to the overall industry value. a trillion, where did you get the number for that? >> if you look at cannabis right now, it is a $300 billion cash crop. if you look at cannabis and hemp, it is ingredients sitting atop a number of verticals or buckets. the consumer side, pharmaceuticals. on the industrial side, hempcrete, plastic composites, animal feed. what we are most excited about is on the biopharmaceutical side. we think cannabis will solve a lot of the unmet medical conditions out there. we don't think that is priced into the market right now. romaine: we are starting to see more activity on the m&a side. at some point, we will have to have some grand consolidation, right?
>> these are the unintended consequences of having artificial impediments of a natural business cycle. for the last 90 years, this has been pastor diced by the united states government -- has been bastardized by the united states government, this is your brain on drugs and so forth. we called them the asymmetric opportunities of price, time, liquidity, all of which will kick in over the course of the next 12 to 18 months. joe: it is one thing to say this will be a massive industry, but there are still so many unknowns. the regulatory landscape is a massive unknown. we don't even know what players will emerge in the u.s., the degree to which legacy pharma companies play into it.
how does an investor looking at industries even begin to think about who will be the winner? at.com -- you look look at dotcom as your proxy. tobacco,that spirits, consumer goods, big pharma, but this will take time. over the next of -- over the course of the next 10 years, we see this emerging in a bull market into an asset class. investors don't see this as an asset class. romaine: when you look at let's say a normal company, a larger company, you start looking at the fundamentals. people aren't buying the stock because of the fundamentals for the here and now. >> it depends on the sector. we talked about a lot of different verticals. obviously, we'll get something on the biotech side much different than the mso side.
you are buying these things based on the management. you are betting on the jockey more than the horse. , thee buying the footprint ability to execute. when you look at these verses 2018 numbers, your head can fall off. we think this year, u.s. mso's --you are banking on the market to get this right. the entire system was first discovered in 1992, so there's a lot of catch-up from a learning standpoint. consumers are going to do it as you start to familiarize yourself with what this is. caroline: you mentioned? it's a lot. we know this is getting traction in germany. -- say, chinaally
is going really long on cannabis the same way with crypto? ofeven a company like one our holdings, they are extrapolating now a trillion dollars in five years, looking at $500 billion worth of revenue. we think australia will be the service station to the southern hemisphere. to your point, africa is now just coming online. or two weeksweek ago, just gave the green light for the medical. we talk about the arbitrage, vs. vs. policy, price institutional flow. most people, when we hear about cannabis, they are thinking about "cheech and chong." we are thinking about the wellness applications. caroline: we are glad that you brought a little bit of euphoria
about it to us today. todd harrison of cb1 capital management. deutsche bank's ceo has finally given the green light for merger talks. germany's finance minister they have annoucned their opposition that 30,000 jobs could be cut. fidelity nation services has agreed to buy. the buyer is offering a mix of cash in stocks. the company will have revenue of about $12 billion. hoping to raise about $2 billion in its ipo, lyft. they plan to sell more than 31 million shares at a price between $62 and $68 per share.
the company reported a loss of almost $1 billion in 2018. the staircase in new york city is revising its policy after a public outcry. the policy gave hudson yards the right to use any image with the sculpture in it for promotional purposes, even including your face. we should mention that michael bloomberg played a role in the settlement as mayor of new york and has made a personal donation to development. romaine: boeing shares are down again amid increasing scrutiny over the 737 max. employees warned as early as seven years ago that the company had too much sway over safety approvals of the new aircraft. the u.s. has learned that federal authorities were already
doing criminal investigations. for more on the impact on this and boeing, let's bring in george ferguson, ac are -- a senior aerospace analyst for bloomberg intelligence. we had a pretty big story out on the bloomberg about how a lot of the certification process was outsourced to employees. this is something that has been occurring for some time now. it calls into question over whether this is sort of a wise way to do it. >> sure. i think it is probably not surprising that there's very close cooperation between boeing and the faa. they have a lot of experience bringing airplanes to market, probably does a lot more research and development. i think what we are finding out now is it probably went too far here as they were looking to develop the max. joe: let's talk about the
overall process, putting aside this particular plane. is this the long-term approach that the faa has taken? >> we haven't talked about a rethink on this for decades. this is something relatively new. remember, more than decades ago, there used to be a multitude of aircraft producers. mcdonnell, douglas aircraft, boeing. you are to the point now where there is one major u.s. aircraft manufacturer. the faa probably a little more cooperative given that they are working with one. hadline: given that boeing too much sway over its own safety approval, how much could this do for boeing in terms of a share price effect, management effect?
basically, if they have not been policing themselves -- >> i really think it makes boeing look pretty bad here. i think it probably increases the hurdle of getting the 737 max back into the marketplace. hash -- wills will have more influence over when this airplane can reenter service. boeing has to go out to those world regulators, show them the fix, prove to them that it is the right fix. frankly, i don't think boeing has a lot of ability to come up short on this. make it really obvious that everything is fixed and then they have to show the regulators. senior aerospace and airline analyst for bloomberg intelligence, thank you.
caroline: chinese leader xi jinping will make a state visit in europe next week. this comes as they look to bolster trade relations and ending trade war with the u.s.. wanting seemingly a deal with italy when it comes to the belt and road initiative, and monaco of all places. shery ahn: a time when the european union is seeing more issues, this is a good time for china to swoop in and strengthen those relationships with the eu. we are expecting chinese president xi jinping to go to
italy and france. they are questioning whether they should sign that mou that will get them in the products -- in the projects with the belt and road initiative. you mentioned monaco. telecom last year agreed to have huawei as one of their equipment providers for 5g. that could be a motive again -- a motivation for president xi to go there. joe: as xi jinping goes to europe, it has been a little bit quiet on the u.s. front. what is happening? shery: i don't know. we have been talking about this progress on china-u.s. trade talks and yet we haven't seen details. we have seen china willing to buy agricultural goods, yet we haven't seen progress. this morning, we heard from a u.s. agriculture secretary.
they were talking about what the dynamic means. i will have a chance to ask him exactly that. i get to talk to him at 6:30 eastern tonight on daybreak australia. we will be talking about what he very attractive numbers. kind of know, right? over howeverllars many years, but we haven't ratified anything. shery: at the beginning of the trade talks, we heard about 2 million tons of u.s. soybeans. we have heard reports of more. at the same time, it is all about the actual number, the volume of exports from the u.s. to china, and that has increased that much since the trade negotiations started. i'll be pushing him on all that. caroline: it is funny.
we know the u.s. can't be endorsing, certainly pushing against that deal. shery: then you have the subtleties. the u.s. is not too happy but it has its own issues with the european union. that is another thing i want to ask secretary perdue about. u.s. are holding negotiations but they have ruled out anything on agricultural products. her and: do not miss secretary perdue on daybreak asia at 6:30 eastern if you were in the u.s.. joe: i will be watching tencent report its fourth-quarter earnings. fedex reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell as well. caroline: that is all for "what'd you miss." joe: bloomberg technology is next in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ emily: on emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next half-hour is the biggest tech startup ipo three years in the largest ipo in the u.s. this year. we will talk about lyft's prospects. apple unexpectedly reveals a new ipad and ipad many. how does it fit into the overall