tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg March 22, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT
now. bloomberg's david westin has been in detroit streak into the general motors ceo, mary barra, the company investing $300 million. david got more details. have a listen. >> with it will be a very animated vehicle. the customers who drive the vehicle are some of our most satisfied. i can't tell you much about it, all i can say is that with all the customer insights, they have all been captured in this vehicle. i am very excited about it. david: this was done with a korean company named lg which it is and the rhetoric and drivetrain. will that be the same with this vehicle? >> that is all information that will be forthcoming. today we are really focused on our assembly plant and the team members, they have done a
phenomenal job of building a high-quality product. so we are here today to focus on this investment in for this facility, creating 400 new jobs in the state of michigan. david: who do you think are likely to fill those jobs? we have heard from the united states about the lordstown plant that will be closing. will people leaving lordstown be eligible to move to this plant? mary: we will follow the u.a.w. and women have on how people move. want everything remember of the lordstown, every member of the lordstown team to stay part of the gm family and we have already been able to successfully move about 500 of those employees to some of our other locations. we will continue to work with each and every one of those employees in hopes that they take one of the jobs we have a across the country, some even in
ohio. i think there is more immediate term opportunities for all of those employees. david: as i understand, you have worked with the u.a.w. as well as michigan to develop this plan. you have labor negotiations coming up with the u.a.w. how does this fit with the upcoming negotiations with the u.a.w.? mary: i think one of the -- we're always aligned on creating jobs with the u.a.w. so being able to announce that we will create 400 jobs especially with a vehicle that will be a strong part of our future, i think it is a very positive thing for our workforce and something that will be noted as we go into those conversations. david: we talked before about the larger platform electric vehicle. i understand that this will be the smaller one, but you have a larger one coming. you really want to emphasize cadillac. do you have an update on when we can expect to see an announcement on the larger
vehicle? mary: we continue to work on it. that is our next generation of all electric vehicle and cadillac will be the lead ran for that. we don't have any information to share right now, but we do expect to do so in the near future. david: the big news this week globallly been about the and u.s. economies. we saw the fed chair say that there are some headwinds partly because a worldwide lack of growth. german pmi numbers outcome a disappointing this morning. in your point of view, are you seeing a softening in u.s. economy? mary: we think it will be about the same as last year. we continue to see pricing pressure, and that is why we are taking steps to make sure we are keeping general motors as a strong company. that will only put us to do things like we are doing today,
announcing new products, new technology that creates new jobs. our focus is. today in the u.s., we do enjoy a stronger economy and we want to capitalize on that. as you know, this is an industry under dramatic transformation. but we are taking the steps and being responsible to make sure we continue to grow in these aeas and continued in have strong u.s. manufacturing base that creates good paying jobs for the united states. vonnie: that was the gm ceo mary barra, speaking about 20 miles north of detroit. the company has just announced a 320 million in dollar investment in an electric car plant there. this coincides with criticism from president trump for gm closing and ohio factory. 1.7%.now down we just got some economic data a
little while ago, existing home sales beat analyst estimates at 5.5 $1somely, million. this is after january saw them down 1.4%. quite the bounce back. effectt having a major on markets. let's look at markets. the s&p 500 down 1%. this is a continuation potentially of the fomc effect which we can see in treasuries. the 10 year yield at 2.4% right now. 2/10 curve is now beneath 10 basis points, and now are spread. the three-month tenure curve has inverted this morning, quite the shift in the treasury curve in the u.s.. pmi's in europe were week. this is also have an -- having an effect on banks. down 3.25ndex,
percent today. 1% after beating estimates. about what isk happening on this side of the atlantic. we saw week german data, french data as well for german -- we german data, as well as french data. german pmi numbers really surprising. you can see that this is rippling out around the eurozone. having an effect on the euro, the currencies suffering when it comes to what it is looking like against the dollar, trading at 1.13. down by about .6%. it is also rippling through the banks on both sides of the atlantic. about .9%.s done by the banks have really suffered,
particularly italian banks, which are really under pressure today, vonnie. vonnie: joining us from san thecisco is president of permanent portfolio family of funds. you a shift in the markets the next couple of days, or is this just a one-time selloff? guest: good morning. i think there is a big shift in sentiment and investor calibration, based on the fed's comments. i think you are seeing the impact on that in the fixed income markets, globally. i think global growth has been anemic to negative for a while in many places, global interest rate have not been in sync with our own fed for quite a while, but two days ago there was recognition of this and the fed appears to have reversed course and is now going in the same direction as many of the central banks, with potentially not raising interest rates for quite a while, and potentially cutting
further in the future. so it was definitely a change in direction and you are seeing the volatility in markets adjusting to that. vonnie: what about the possibility ofust got existing s january.n michael: i think you would have to put this in longer-term perspective. we are a longer-term investor, so we think that way all the time. there are still some strong u.s. data points. unemployment is low, consumers are spending. we still have corporate profits being reasonable. we have good expectations in q1 for the most part. growth estimates are anywhere from 2.5% to 3% for 2019. we knew that q1 was going to be weaker, but that has been a norm for the last couple of years.
2.5% to 3% sounds like the rough number. pricing is at a rate that is greater than the inflation target that the fed has at the moment. so you have some strong data points, and i think that they are being smart by looking around at being data dependent, not rushing to raise rates. but still, i wouldn't be surprised if down the road he had another rate increase or two based on domestic u.s. activity. i think it is too early to start talking about rate cuts in the u.s.. but when you see an inverted curve, any make global growth in europe and potentially, china, when you see the trade issues, there are causes to be concerned, and investors would be prudent to consider this in terms of their overall asset .llocation strategy >> michael, guy in london.
can we talk a little bit about what we are getting in terms of the signal from the bond market. is it as you suggested not signaling dark clouds ahead for the u.s. economy? connected to what is happening with the balance sheet rolloff? the fed has indicated that it will not be aggressive with the balance sheet rolloff. simply that the banks are just saying that there are more buyers than sellers in the bond markets in the u.s., and that is why yields are being dropped lower? michael: you mentioned earlier the bond -- the 10 year bond went negative. i think we can growth in europe has been the norm for a while and i think european interest rates have reflected that. i think what you are seeing in the bond market right now is caution. investors trying to calibrate what the fed. move means. are there behind the rest of the world, or are they a leading indicator? a weekn their comments ago, i think that is what the bond markets are trying to do.
with longer-term yields declining and the juncker inverted, you have investors -- the yield curve inverted, investors are buying on the longer and. you also have questions with u.s. growth versus global growth, what impact that negative growth will have on u.s. growth. the market is grappling with these questions and i think that is where you are seeing? u.s. fixed income investors be investing outside the u.s. right now? on a hedged aces, you are seeing a 3% pickup in the u.s. 10 -- the german ten-year. hedging is an important factor in all this. should u.s. investors be putting their money overseas? --hael: we have not honestly, our view has been the risk-reward on most of the sovereign european debt and really, global debt, has not been worth it.
especially with the diversions in rates on u.s. that, whether it is treasuries or investment grade corporates has been so much better than the risk-reward in terms of global bonds. we have been u.s. for a while, shorter duration u.s., high quality balance sheets, variety of industries, or treasuries, taking advantage of that discrepancy. yields. have been better. the u.s. economy has been better , and you are just not getting compensated globally on an interest rate basis right now. been mostly u.s., shorter duration, high-quality. vonnie: michael, big tech investors. it seems you are looking to get .n on the list of the uber ipo michael: we will evaluate and i feel like we would any equity investment. the interesting thing is the number of ipo candidates this
year in many different industries. including lyft and bloomberg, which are big right now. i think in light of -- these are disruptor companies that have been public for a while and they are losing a ton of money an evy quarter. so in terms of what investors can expect as a prophet, a think in this environment where you have questions on global growth or a dynamic -- can expect as a prophet. -- as a profit. the ipo calendar is pretty big this year, it have a lot of professional investors and companies may be looking to cash out and get an exit strategy before you get a recession in the u.s. or globally. so you have to the question on any of these companies, who is wants toand who
be buying right now and this environment, especially when you don't have visibility in the profits. uber and lyft are disruptive companies, they are changing that industry, and there are definitely growth areas tangential to a, deliver services and the like. they are interesting, but there are also losing a ton of money. and the violations of a talking about at the moment, based on the current business models would give investors a reason to be cautious and pause. on the other hand, if they can turn back to profitability quickly, they are interesting basis?es on a long-term guy: considering the risks you just highlighted, how much cash do i want to have in my portfolio right now, given that the united states is generating quite a decent yield right now? generating a is yield roughly in line with inflation. give or takeet,
around that 2% number, wage inflation higher than that in recent data, and you are getting 2.5% on the treasury, rough numbers. so you are neutral. our view would be that you could do better with a diversified portfolio. especially in light of declining rates globally. companies and non-us that have good long-term business
equity investments can still make money, but you have to be industry selective and issuer selective right now. with potentially declining rates and potentially a weaker dollar going forward, commodity commodities look good. with the supply and demand, the global economy would be a push. guy: michael, thank you for your time. thank you very much. let's get a nap data on what you need to know. here is a bloomberg first word news with kailey leinz. kailey: citigroup is cracking down after investigations into their trading. bloomberg has learned the bank examined whether certain traders properly disclosed their own financial interests when facilitating stock trades. a policy reversal by the trump administration certain to provoke china. bloomberg has learned about the president has encouraged taiwan
to buy more than 60 fighter jets. to u.s. hasn't sold the jets taiwan since 1992. the au has given british prime minister theresa may another two weeks to avoid a no-deal brexit. leaders told theresa may that if british lawmakers do not endorse her deal next week, she has until april 12 to select two options, to request a longer extension or to leave without an agreement. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: this is bloomberg markets. i am guy johnson. let's check the markets. about, it really is the bond markets today. weaker inflation numbers are sending global yields tumbling. germany showed us what the market is doing, negative territory for the first time since 2016. disappointing manufacturing data. similar to japan, boj inflation numbers showing that they are low. 2.46 on the u.s. 10 year yield looks attractive, but it is the lowest in a year. equities are also reached today, risk-off because of the week growth. france lure than 1%. s&p 500 headed for its worst week since 2018. let me take you to the terminal and show you the chart of the
♪ guy: welcome back. let's talk about the equity space. the u.s. and european equities have basically erased their losses since the back end of last year. etf investors are hiring money into one area but not the other. let's find out. which side of the atlantic money is going. to have someone from bloomberg intelligence joining us now. let's start with the u.s.. talk to me about flows into u.s. equities. >> when you look at the year,
there were baby steps into u.s. equities. people were buying lowball names. now there is full on flow back u.s.. this week has been the best week we have seen for u.s. equities, 29 billion in one week. the products taking money are etf's, institutional etf's, retail etf's. there is a lot of confidence in the rallies that we saw in the beginning of the year. vonnie: but there is a different story. seeing?t are you tom: it is the inverse and europe. even though stocks have been going up, there is no confidence in investors piling back and europe. if you look at the chart, there's actually an inversion between the stock index and flows. europe -- it has been 13 months ,or outflows for european etfs 17 billion out. no one?
guy: wants to touch european etfs now? guy:? guy: what about the european banking sector. what a rough couple of years. any sign from the etf universe let people are deciding european banks are cheap enough to dip their toes in? >> that is a big indicator. if you want to feel confident about europe, you look at banking etf's. the european financials etf, if you look at it from a technical trending., it is down treadin it looks like it is break them back down. at a see any confidence in that etf? guy: tom, thank you very much indeed. joining us on what is happening in the banking space. vonnie? vonnie: we will be talking trade in a moment. mixed messages from president trump, saying that a deal
with jenna is close, u.s. officials downplaying that. visitis weekend we have a to beijing by u.s. trade representative and steve mnuchin. the area that is really catching eyes are treasuries today, 2.4514% 10 year yields, the curve is about 11 basis points wide at this point, 10.78. the three-month tenure has inverted. in terms of equities, we are down .8% on the dow, .8% lower andhe s&p 500, the stocks the regionals. the bank stocks and more regionals. d more regionals. you.
federal reserve should hold off from further interest rate hikes. he also said his doesn't think his criticism on the central bank has an impact on policymakers. >> i hope i didn't influence them. it doesn't matter, i don't care if i did influence of them. one thing, i was right. they tightened. they did $50 billion a month. i said, what are we doing here? kailey: bloomberg has learned president trump is considering to put more conservative economists on the federal reserve board. he is a close friend of the white house economic adviser, larry kudlow. in the netherlands, prosecutors say that the man being held on mondays shooting in utrecht has confessed. he killed three people on a tram and wounded three others. prosecutor said he has told them he acted alone. there are concerns that there is
a deal getting closer with china. up to china'sn belt and road initiative, the first g7 country to do so. beijing to trade present-day investment for more leverage. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. you.e: kaylee, thank president trump says a deal with china is close, his words, ahead of a fresh round of talks in beijing. >> a lot of people are waiting for the deal with china. i think you have a very big impact, bigger than people know. as to whether or not it makes it, i think it will. i think we are getting very close. vonnie: are joined by chief china economist with ts lumbered. thanks for joining. we are hearing a bit of a split in the trump camp and that
certain members of the trade negotiation team would go heavier on china and others are happy to go a little easier on china. what is your best case for the outcome here? be a: our best case would nominal deal between the u.s. and china. china will, if accept not to compromise the direct investment model, the be that tariffs remain in place and china and the u.s. will find out what wording they could use for a stable currency. in other words, we expect a nominal deal. without authority in place, right? china has ordered he promised to keep the currency stable and president trump has said the tariffs are coming off. bo: they have agreed to a deal, thatn the ground, i hear
china wants to use adjectives to describe a final action, but the u.s. wants quantity and timing behind it. so that could be why they are discussing how they put this on paper. vonnie: interesting. guy: good morning. pmiaw a slump in german manufacturing numbers, and the reason for that is export markets are weakening, presumably of the part of that is what's going on in china. while that number turnaround? do you think chinese demand will pick up? i expect late second quarter, chinese demand should pick up. at the current, with china i think the pickup will not happening in q1, but it
will happen in q2. have president xi jinping in italy and then going on to france. what is the economic advantage italy for now? do you think it is economic or political? bo: i think it is mostly political advantage. the belt and road initiative, i budget.a foreign policy honestly, italy is part of the g7 countries and this is quite significant in terms of the developed countries turning the one belt, one road initiative. vonnie: back to what you were saying a moment ago that we just need to find wording, but we are close to a deal. it sounds optimistic. problem,ctives are the what amounts are the problem, and candy meet -- can they meet? bo: i think china doesn't want to put specific timing or quantity behind the deal, it
will tie china's hand on how they honor their commitments. the u.s. negotiation team, especially light heiser, wants china to have a strict timeline to honor its promises -- ambassador lighthizer, once china to have a strict timeline to honor its promises. vonnie: who will give? something has to give. world out world outside -- to the outside world, it is more about intellectual property. on china already promised intellectual property. but china has its bottom line. it'smpromising on the soe, state investment model. compromisedould be if there are concessions from china side in my expectations.
guy: there was speculation that we could see pboc cutting rates. you see that happening? for the moment, i don't factor that into my best case. but in the second half of this year, my policy trigger signal will be asked the producer price index in china falls below -2 percent. i would expect pboc to react to that with interest rate cuts. about real estate investment in china? bo: real estate nominal byestment has been affected what happened last year. -- and is part of the gross capital formation of the gdp. but this does not happen gdp growth rate.
it is a misleading indicator for real estate investment numbers. vonnie: how strong are the banks? can the state prop them up enough? are there problems are brewing in the shadow banking sector that could produce some kind of black swan event? bo: not in the short-term, in the next two years. i think overall the chinese banking system has tightened yearsf i in the last two -- tight end a bit in the last two years and the chinese banking sector has seen contraction in the last two years. if you look at non-bank financing, and the first two months of this year, there was a net contraction. i am not worried about it in the short-term. vonnie: you mentioned southeast asia when we were talking of air. how much is southeast asia being impacted by these trade wars? bo: i think over the medium-term
to long-term, china will try to andd an asia trading bloc, industrial class relocation will be positive for southeast asia. there is a medium-term for southeast asia countries all around. vonnie: it is great to have you here from singapore. bo zhuang, ts lombard. the we are hearing that commerzbank ceo is offering a quick decision in merger talks. remember, we had deutsche bank annual report out earlier on, and the ceo is talking to his current guidance in terms of the revenue story coming out of deutsche bank. he wonder whether it is a bit of pre-positioning in advance of
♪ guy: live from london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: and from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. guy: europe's economic outlook is being thrown into fresh doubts after reports showed weakness across france and germany, we were talking about the pmi data we got earlier on. germany yields now going -- german ten-year bonds going negative. we have our next guest here now.
how bad is the story in europe right now? theckly, how useful is german pmi as a guide to what is going on. >> not very, actually. this one actually isn't quite indicative as of the previous ones have been. it isn't good that they haven't bounced, but i am actually not that pessimistic just on these particular numbers. though clearly, it shows that france check treatment effectuating sector has turned back down again, and the balance is still in germany. the strength of wages and consumption, in germany, makes me feel less worried. if you pile the pressure on the ecb -- they went early and told targetedould give us
long-term financing operations. however, the terms on them have not yet disclosed and have said they want start until september. that has to change. the ecb has to be a lot more dovish like the federal reserve has been. the fed has woken up to the problem and the ecb still seems asleep. --ould love to say that clearly this is something europe has taken into proper context. is a hard brexit something they should be worried about? and we should see in the next few days whether or not that weeks of people -- that wakes up the people in brussels. we hear that angela merkel is applying pressure. macron hasn't. maybe they are playing good cop, bad cop.
weather mays deal goes through, it will give us a big list. likewise, the u.s.-china trade stuff. the point here is that the fed is a way to the problem and have decided to roll out rate hikes this year and on the one possibly next year. and then they will also stop tightening. why isn't europe during the fiscal response? that is exactly what is needed here. the ecb has stopped qe and the have left themselves on a cul-de-sac. guy: what would be the catalyst for that? we have seen week data today. i am curious what would get berlin moving in terms of ending money with. let be the elections coming up? maybe they would need some medical firepower? marcus: everyone is doing nothing because they are worried about the elections. willy doing nothing, they make the elections worse in the context of the populists.
if brexit collapses, i think it is bad news for the context of the european elections and what the populist vote may be. maybe we will see a reaction from europe, i doubt it. but we have seen, like where greece, we have seen last-minute things before. vonnie: how closely anchored our global yields to u.s. yields, marcus? marcus: i think there are moving in lockstep together. you have a global central bank , thehness coming through bank of japan is trying to do the same thing again. but like lice, the federal reserve has really sent is -- likewise, the federal reserve has really sent a message as dovish as they can. this is madness in the ecb, they need to send a strong message. it is really the fiscal response. we have to look at world youth.
germany's. -- world yields. today we had italy rising, maybe because the china deal with italy could cause some follow-up, but the reality is yields are falling so sharply everywhere that even italy got sucked in. germanhave negatives in ten-year yields, that is not positive on the european economy. someone has to react. guy: to what extent is ecb policy responsible for what is going on via the banks? -- it is making it difficult for european banks to make money at this time. inld the ecb decide that order to get it to work efficiently, they could change policy? marcus: the back of france said this -- them back of france, he said, negative rates don't work,
we look at the fact that negative rates are a tax on the banks. mario draghi was clear trouble that out. they haven't got the ability to react to that, and it is a shame. negative rates are a huge dampener, it is madness. at the moment basically is in a box they can't get out of. vonnie: marcus, what about the xy and the sister and brother currencies. what happens to the dollar? marcus: the dollar is the least dirty shirt, the power of the dollar is sure. they have taken steam out of it because they are not going to raise rates at least for one to the next two years. nonetheless, the dollar is still the best economy. professor throughout the world. the yen is the panic currency come but the reality is the dollar economy is still strong.
the dollar is still the reserve currency for the world. changes, ithing will be hard for the dollar to weaken particularly against the rest of the world. the european economy is struggling. the rest of the world doesn't really have any strong points. china is waiting for this trade deal. things could change. if you get a good brexit, the reaction from it, likewise, the u.s.-china trade deal, things could change quickly. the point is volatility is very low. it is probably time to look at that because i think things will change quickly. feel one was a completely reversal of q4 -- they are mirror images, rather. q2 will be very interesting. vonnie: marcus ashworth, thank you. time now for the latest business flash. blackrock has agreed to buy a tonch software provider
expand private equity and real estate analytics for clients. the world's largest money manager will pay $1.3 billion, adding to one of the cracks key businesses -- one of blackrock's he businesses. the u.s. stock exchange could be one of the biggest listings of all time. uber has selected the exchange for the ipo. the listing could value over at up to $120 billion. that is your latest business flash. this is bloomberg. ♪
leaving, stepping down from the position. his counsel will assume the hashtag 2 spot at the manhattan prosecutors office. mi is leaving that position, noted because he is the attorney who led the prosecution of michael cohen. he is stepping down and audrey strauss will assume the number two spot. let's turn now to futures in focus. u.s. three-month 10 year yields curve has inverted. let us talk about that with our guest. he is joining us from the cme. can you remember the last time you saw your curve inversion in the u.s., and does it portend something different this time? it really portend something different.
history shows that in versions are typically followed by a slowdown. whether it is a recession, i will let you decide that. ae german bund went to negative again come up first time in three years. so we have a problem in everything. when you look at these short-term rates coming down, you get positives out of it such as we saw today in existing home sales, they tripled exit nations because we're looking at mortgage rate tumble at this point. the big question you are hearing in the euro futures behind me, the big question going on is, what happens in europe? do they ever get in for another rather than stay behind it? that will be a huge issue that they have to figure out. if they can get themselves to the point where they start throwing real stimulus, that is what the market is looking for. we went into a pause. of fed told you, going ahead the curve is usual, they are not
raising rates, the economy is so-s ando there, are concerned about the left and right shoulder, at what is going on in china and europe. those countries have to do something while we pause then the world economy can pick up. as an island nation, we will not make of ourselves. vonnie: iraq, thank you for that. joining us from the cme. thank you. insidet's take a look the little blue box. tiffany is our stop of the hour, after opening in the red, rising more than 3%. emma chandra is here with more. why the turnaround? emma: yes, it is pretty interesting. off thes are shrugging sales miss. sales are usually a key metric in retail and they had come in flat, after being expected to
post a 1% gain. you can see how that had come down a long way from the previous quarter. estimates were already lower given that the company back in january warned that holiday sales were weaker than expect did. inventories grew as well, which would have impacted margins. margins were bit better, but not as good as had been forecast. it seems investors are focusing on the forecast from the company, which still says they expect to see modest growth in 2019. vonnie: y a fall in tourists spending? emma: this is another concern, that the number of tourists mainly from china and spending in the u.s. fell. we know that has ramped up sales for companies like tiffany in the u.s. and also on the other side of the atlantic in paris and london. alle luxury companies are low in europe. we heard from the ceo of another
luxury watchmaker who said that in u.s. stores, they are also seeing softer spending from tourists. stores are also feeling some impact from the of the vest protests, which also have more protests expected this weekend. tiffany is shrugging that off, saying that things will be a lot better in terms of tourists spending in the coming year. youie: emma chandra, thank for that. coming up, "balance of power. today's guest is the president of the afl-cio. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
headquarters here in new york, i'm jason kelly in for david westin. welcome to "balance of power your car where the -- welcome to "balance ." power t kevin cirilli is joining us from washington with the latest on trade, and maria taddeo joining us from brussels as the e.u. gives theresa may an extension on brexit. let's start with brian. those?we care about brian: this field curb has predicted the last recession. it says something about the economy because your three-month bills suddenly yields more than the 10 year treasuries, so people are buying the tenure protection effectively betting that the fed will have to cut rates soon to fight the recession. jason: i what you to stick around. brian, i want to go to