tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia BLOOMBERG March 24, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
haidi: welcome to "daybreak australia." i am haidi stroud-watts. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. kathleen:sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. we are counting down to asia's first major market open. here are the top stories we are covering. robert mueller finds no collusion but doesn't clear the president of obstruction of justice. trump said it is a complete exoneration. mr. trump: there was no collusion with russian. there was no obstruction and none whatsoever.
and it was a complete and total exoneration. the pboc governor said more can be done. he said financial services can open up further. election results delayed in thailand with pro and anti-military parties running neck and neck. kathleen: looking at the stock market. what a difference a couple of days makes. on wednesday the federal reserve creating euphoria when they took all the 2019 rate hikes off the table. by friday, a massive bond rally. 2.42 on the benchmark 10 year note. global growth fears have ignited again. germany's pmi, key manufacturing 48% tofell sharply from 44.4%. now we have concerns about global desk growth in the u.s.
why would stocks get upset? stocks rallying, bonds -- it is bad for banks. 1.9 for the points, s&p 500, the nasdaq down 2.5%. am. other sectors of the economy, technology needs growth. 196 point loss, futures are actually up for the s&p. let's look at a very important chart. with the bond rally, the 10 year note coming down relative to the three-month bill, you can see the yield curve has just come down to inverted territory. the three-month bill, close to 2.44. the others 2.44 of the close. signalurbs almost always a recession.
that is another reason why the downbeat on was so friday. we will see how that transfers into asia. what are you seeing? sophie: u.s. futures are edging higher, but in asia we anticipate a lower open area nikkei futures hinting at losses. this as we kick off a week with mnuchin and lighthizer traveling to china for trade talks. we have politics in view with a 10 day time election results. hai election results. looking at the lowest level on record, aussie 10-year yield below 1.8%, losing six basis points, continuing to collapse after we saw the rba governor shift to a neutral stance. investors chasing yields to get ahead of the u.s. inversion. kathleen: president claiming victory after the special counsel found no evidence in collusion with russia.
william barr said there is not enough evidence to charge the president with obstruction of justice. mr. trump: there was no collusion, there was no obstruction and none whatsoever. and it was a complete and total exoneration. kathleen: bloomberg's chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli joins us now. kevin, this was quite a day. the president said on the charge of collusion he was exonerated. is the firestorm in washington at high tilt now? reporter: no collusion. that is the bottom line from the investigation as well as what the white house is pushing out. the president is in route back from -- en route back from mar-a-lago and will arrive at the white house later this evening. according to attorney general barr's letter that he sent to congress and released to the
public, the four-page letter, he writes the probe did not find the trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with russia in its influence -- efforts to influence the presidential election. on the issue of collusion, no collusion. on the issue whether or not there was a fraction of justice, inconclusive -- there was obstruction of justice, inconclusive. the report found evidence on both sides of the question and leaves unresolved what he views law, --cult evidence of of law. the evidence found is not sufficient to found the president committed and obstruction of justice defense. democrats are urging for the full release of the report and jerry never, democrat -- jerry nadler of the house judiciary committee will be calling the
attorney general to publicly testify in the near future. haidi: we are hearing from chuck schumer and nancy pelosi also saying this is not a neutral observation of the mueller report and they want many more questions to be answered and urge that it be given to congress. on a separate issue of obstruction of justice, are we setting up for a fight to get the full report? kevin: congress will be very much in play, especially with democrats controlling the house. the chatter is far from over. there are still many questions unanswered but big questions were answered. the issue of there being no collusion and no more -- for several of many members of his administration and the first
family, there is no collusion, it is something that has largely cast a shadow over the first two administration. now they feel emboldened. i tell you in talking with administration staffers and former staffers as the report came out and made -- was made public, they feel recharged, rejuvenated and are going to use this to their advantage politically in the days and weeks ahead. cirilli, chief washington correspondent there with the latest on the robert mueller report and the attorney general's interpretation or memo on that being released a little while ago. let's bring in this partner from the law firm francine higher. great to have you. you can see the relief from the administration, from president trump. he was taking this as a win,
saying it is a full exoneration. on attraction of justice, it is questionable given it seems like evidence stands on both sides. do you see it as a win? >> it is a positive development. the big question answered today teamhe special counsel's found no evidence of criminal conduct with respect to a conspiracy to coordinate with russia or obstruction. the obstruction issue raises the biggest question from today's letter from the attorney general. why did the special counsel defer to the attorney general making the final call on the obstruction issue? he is appointed to be the prosecutor to make these decisions, so they would be taken away from a trump appointee like the attorney general or deputy attorney general -- mr. mueller will have to explain and mr. barr will have to explain why the letter
suggests robert mueller deferred to barr on this. haidi: is it unusual given for all the reasons you said, is it unusual it doesn't reach conclusion on obstruction, or is it the case we need to see the full report because these concerns over intent, behavior and what it takes to reach beyond regional -- reasonable doubt, he wasn't able to reach? greg: we have to see the complete report and also hear from mr. mueller and mr. barr has to what transpired between them. as a former prosecutors, it is prosecutor,a former i can tell you it is possible to make the case if the special counsel doesn't make the underlying case. but it was seen that there was not enough evidence to prosecute the president. why did that appear to be barr's
decision and not robert mueller's? as a senior doj officials are explaining actions to congress, it is that issue, along with language from the letter that refers to -- it says "does not exonerate him," those two issues are going to be the most significant with respect to congressional questioning and doubt about this investigation. that will lead to what i might call a reverse claims situation. with rivers -- respect to clinton, house republicans were incredulous at the fact james comey decided there wasn't enough evidence to recommend prosecution. here it will be house democrats who have reasons to really question this investigation and are going to demand to see every piece of evidence and in fact demand to have mr. mueller come
up for hearing. kathleen: tell us what the legal inning of exonerate is. is -- meaning of exonerate is. is that a legal term where you can't be prosecuted? is it a moral term? not a legal term. we will need to know more about the molar -- robert mueller report. at today's letter, it is -- but today's letter is saying the department between robert mueller and barr decided there wasn't enough evidence to prosecute the president for criminal conduct, but what they found by way of investigation revealed information about his conduct that doesn't exonerate him. kathleen: so he misbehaved and democrats would like the evidence that he'd misbehaved, but the investigation shows it is true that if you don't have
evidence to indict, the method or the custom has been, you don't put out all the information that could make someone look bad because if that were the case, you could investigate anybody and find bad behavior. in this case evidence could be used politically. greg: you are right. this case is different. in the normal case where a prosecutor is investigating someone but decides there is not enough evidence to indict, typically the public doesn't know that person was being investigated. sometimes word leaks out they are under investigation, but there is no formal confirmation. it is not such a public thing that everybody is aware of. here we have that. everyone knows the president has been under investigation. like the clinton investigation, it may constitute one of the exceptions to the usual doj holocene where it is permissible
to explain, for prosecutors to explain -- usual doj policy where it is permissible to explain, for prosecutors to explain why. haidi: we know investigations are still afoot in new york. how do the interpretation of these findings set up implications for those in new york? i would submit those others are not impacted at all by the findings of the robert mueller investigation except that it spun off some of those, certainly the other federal investigations. they will live or die on their own. that is why the president and the white house and supporters might be well advised to not spike the football in the end zone just yet. there is a lot more we don't know about these other investigations, especially those being brought by state
authorities, not in any way impacted by this result. haidi: really appreciate your time with us. former fbi assistant director greg bauer. ons is a breaking issue daybreak. you can go to the terminal and is on the mobile in the anywhere app. you can customize settings you get news on industries and assets you care about. let's get you caught up with the rest of the first word news. may,e start with theresa who has held talks with a leaving death with the leading conservatives as she fights to save her brexit deal. she met with boris johnson and others to see if there is sufficient support for an agreement that has already been defeated twice in parliament. this came amid reports the senior cabinet figures are plotting to remove may and install a hard-line brexit
backer. italy has joined china's belt and road trade project, irritating the u.s. and western allies and stoking tensions in the populist government in rome. they are the first g7 nation to join the initiative, signing deals worth $23 billion. washington and brussels had urged caution, and the decision has frayed relations between italy's five-star movement and its right-wing coalition partner. thailand has unexpectedly delayed its election results until monday afternoon. this after the first boat since 2014 and the military coup that occurred. the tally was expected sunday afternoon but will now be released monday. creating -- they are seen in the lead, putting one person in addition to remove
that return as prime minister. -- in position to return as prime minister. australia facing torrential rain. this as cyclone veronica rolled to the coast. after trevor hit the northern territory, veronica is approaching the commercially important code borrow region, bringing gusts of 120 miles per hour. it was expected sunday afternoon but has slowed down while out at sea. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. thai voters ahead, kept waiting after the -- we will be live in bangkok later this hour. kathleen: amp capital investors deanna joins us to talk about
kathleen: i am kathleen hays in new york. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we have seen an inverted yield curve that triggered a reverse in sentiment at the start of a prolonged slump across equities, now back against -- for the first time since 2008. is it bad for the bulls? joining us is an and the capital analyst. capital analyst. we are seeing the 10 year falling to the lowest ever. it is like a repeat of 2018. deana: i suppose it is concerning if you look at it in the short-term but we think it is a delayed reaction to what we have seen in global data. investors have been uncertain as
to the strength of the global economy. equity market returns have been strong, but the same downward move hasn't happened. bond yields will track lower over the near term. you are seeing that the business from global central banks. i don't think it is anything to be concerned about. the global economy will strengthen in the second half of the year and this is short-term uncertainty. haidi: you don't see that as a traditional leading indicator of doom and gloom. diana: there are a few things in terms of leading indicators and this is one of them. if we look at the broad state of global economic data, it is not strong, but it is holding up ok. the pmi's in europe have been weaker which is disappointing,
but central-bank support is still there. the ecb is not raising interest rates, they are providing financing for the banks. in australia we might get another cut. all of these things will support the global economy for the second half of the year. in china, stimulus from monetary and fiscal, is still running high. kathleen: it seems china, smart, lucky, they had plenty of ammunition to add lots of stimulus. europe doesn't have that. why stimulate growth by not raising rates? what can europe do if anything, and they have that dark brexit cloud. there is the possibility of some kind of disruptive brexit when it gets done. europethe key thing for is that forward-looking momentum in terms of where interest rates are going to go.
last year we saw the ecb would be raising interest rates around now. they have said they won't do so for another year and they have provided more cheap financing for the banks and bank lending in europe will start to pick up. -- for the banks. bank lending in europe will pick up. in terms of the big spike up in the changed yields, in german auto emissions standards which affect exports, we don't see those discontinuing . the political environment has stabilized. brexit is more of an issue that is localized to the u.k. economy, and it will affect the u.k. more than that you unless you have a bad brexit outcome ,nd get a hard -- the e.u. unless you have a bad brexit outcome and get a hard brexit. kathleen: let's move on to japan because it is sort of the perpetual dove.
it will be years before they can think about getting less dovish. how does the year play out for them, particularly since the government is still intent on putting in a consumption tax hike that has been designed not to hurt anybody doing that? diana: the outlook for the glut -- the japanese economy is still traveling -- troubling. the unemployment rate is high. there is no structural issues. it is difficult for wages to be lifted. we would have assumed by now abenomics would have allowed for the structural pressures to ease, but it hasn't done that. the japanese economy is reliant on the rest of asia and europe.
i suppose that recovery we are looking for in the second half of this year, china and the rest of asia will support the economy, but it is a challenging environment. we have a positive view on japanese equities. we are concerned about the expansion tax hike you are referring to. the next few months will be challenging for japan. haidi: great to have you as always. diana mousina. we have another big guests coming up, charles evans at 6:45 sydney time. in hong kong, 3:45 p.m. this is bloomberg. ♪
billion this year. profit rose in 2018 but missed estimates. this week is the last week to buy tesla before prices go up. the price of all inventory cars worldwide will rise 3% from april 2. the company announced plans to -- a cost-cutting exercise but backtracked and said they would back -- bump up prices to keep stores open. is picking up rights in the middle east. it is buying a middle east company in a deal that could be announced later monday. kareem is one of the most viable stack -- tech startups in the middle east. the backers include japanese e-commerce leader rakuten and the saudi prince. up next, results of thailand's first election since the 2014
haidi: 9:30 a.m. in sydney. a bit of a down day in asia and the futures in the red, asx futures falling the most in two weeks. we are talking about a yield curve inversion, general doom and gloom about the global economic outlook. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. you are watching daybreak australia. now let's get to first word news with su keenan. su: we start with special counsel robert mueller who has delivered his report and has found no evidence of collusion with russia in the 2016 election. but the report doesn't exonerate
president trump of instruction -- of obstruction of justice, not completely even though the attorney general doesn't see enough evidence to pursue a charge. the president tweeted in triumph after the report was released, saying he has been completely cleared. mr. trump: there was no collusion, no obstruction, none whatsoever. and it was a complete and total exoneration. su: there are reports china is refusing to agree to u.s. demand on an easing of curbs digital trade. they say beijing has get to -- calls for an end of discrimination on foreign entities. and he does think the providers of cloud computing services among other things are at issue.
an offer by china was deemed long -- e and the pboc governor so there is plenty of china to further open its financial markets to the rest of the world. they save foreign financial services firms should be treated the same as -- they say foreign financial firms should be treated the same as local. the pboc will focus on providing more hedging tools this year to help investors manage risk. australia's liberal national coalition has earned some welcome news, winning a third term in new south wales, lifting spirits ahead of the federal election in may. the coalition suffered a 2.5% swing to rivals but expect to have 49 seats in the 93 seat lower house. opinion polls suggest the national prime minister will
lose to labor in may. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. kathleen: let's get to sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. how is it looking? i give you the wrong name. -- gave you the wrong name. sophie: global growth fears are , 1% or 2% forses the kospi and that nikkei showing off .9%, snapping a two day advance. aussie stocks could face one of the toughest days of the year with futures up 50 basis points. anxiety playing out in the bond market, continued collapse, wishing the 10 year to the lowest on record. and stocks on the radar, commodity players could move as
several companies like bhp and .io have posted iron ore several miners have expanded -- weions where there was are looking at the rio tinto ceo saying the group could consider when the damage is made clear. any short-term ramp-up even as global rises have climbed, immediate effects in high grade ores. haidi: let's get you more on what we are watching as trading gets underway in asia. , seeing cautioned not just in bond markets friday but also getting sentiment with equities as well. that is the interesting latest twist in this big grind in the bond yields.
equity markets have been happy to take a view monetary policy is a slowdownere in economic growth, testing five-month highs on global indexes. that started to show signs of cracking on friday. this chart is going to be talked a lot about today and for the remainder of this week but it is only one indicator of yield curve inversion. this is three-month and 10 year yield. it is only one indicator although often in history, pretty good indicator of subsequent recessions to follow. what is happening in markets now , seeing australian bond markets getting fresh lows on the 10 year yields, jgb looking like they may open again in new lows. it is a number of manufacturing --orts friday that audit added to the gloom about the global economy. the question is whether equities
on one or two session pullback or whether this is some kind of fundamental realignment of use -- views on growth and tolerability earnings could have to withstand the slowdown. looks like it will be a stuff -- a tough start for asian equity markets, but we will see whether this becomes a theme, getting real pressure. kathleen: the three to 10 yield curve is the fed's favorite one. that is the powerful one. we went from fed pause to global, more dovish turn. when the fed took the rate hike off the table, bond guys started to say they are not going to raise. when are they going to cut? looking at australia, dropping down to 1.8, what does it tell us about the perception of the reserve bank of australia? adam: there is a couple of things for australia.
first, the bond market is reflective of international concerns more wide than its borders. its relationship to china is fundamental and often it is spoken of. the argument does merit thing that is tied to the roxy of chinese growth. the yellow line here in the difference -- and the difference in australia and the rest of the world, it also shows you there is continued pressure on the domestic economy we have had the big ongoing slide in the housing market, the big cities of melbourne and sydney, not really showing signs of letting up. the investor has largely pulled away from the housing market. i think really it speaks to a couple of ideas on the local scale that the market is already points cuts or basis from the rba over the next 12 months and whether or not that australia is a better
place for investors relative to the u.s., if the u.s. does need to cut rates by 25 basis points or so, it is that kind of, where does australia leave you if you are a global money manager looking for yields that is increasingly looking like it is hard to find. kathleen: looks like two years ago, not too bad but -- adam haigh. check out our library for the charts we have been talking about. gtv on the bloomberg terminal. onto thailand, we have to wait to know who won sunday's election. the first popular vote since the military coup in 2014. different parties running neck and neck. our chief southeast asia correspondent haslinda amin is in bangkok. how are things going? it has been interesting to watch the far. it was a difficult
election to predict in the first place. that is the reason why political commentators were unwilling to make predictions that each party would get what. going into this election, the one party was given a competitive advantage. lots of surprises -- this delay is one. it was delayed from 10:00 p.m. last night to 10:00 a.m. this morning and now 2:00 later. the electionsto commission, higher than previous elections. when it comes to voter turnout, another surprise, 66% versus the 80% predicted. a high level of turnout would have affected the opposition parties. that didn't happen and it could have been reflected in the votes we saw. with --
with 90% this is how it is looking in terms of the party at 7.5to -- looking million votes. for the other party, linked to -- 7 million votes. renee mutchnik on -- pretty much nekc.-- neck and a few years ago they were 5 million votes, and that is a strong performance. what is interesting is that is what commentators are saying, that the older conservative ,oters went for status quo where the younger voters went for future forward, which is probably the message that resonated with the younger voters because of the wanting of more freedom in a country that has been ruled by the government party for the last few years.
haidi: we are seeing familiar faces like a former prime minister, the democratic party that performed badly. he has resigned. what happened? it fell short of expectations. this is the oldest party in thailand, always had its stronghold among the pro business elites here in bangkok. but as this election -- it fell short. it had wanted 100 seats in parliament. that didn't happen. he promised to step down should that fail, and that is what he did last night. there is a sense among the people that the democrat party is behind the curve when it comes to policies for the economy, policies that would bring thailand forward. that is part of the reason why its popularity has swindled. like i mentioned earlier, this has not been between the red and the yellow shirts anymore.
it is the pro and anti-military. those wanting for status quo, those who are sick and tired -- since 2032 people have voted for stability -- 1932, people have voted for stability. and with the future forward younger generation, future -- promising a new agenda. haslinda amin, we will be checking in with you throughout the day. the results are delayed until later today. we will be live at the milken institute in japan with an interview with the see qsc -- this is bloomberg. ♪
australia." jobesa may has some security for now. she was backed after newspapers said she was facing a party revolt. our reporter joins us in new york for the latest. are the markets pricing in the possibility of a no deal brexit? looks like theresa may through the telegraph is telling ministers, i am going to take it off the table. it is like a ping-pong match. reporter: prior to that telegraph headline, you saw some preparation talks, goldman sachs strategist raised the chances of the possibility of a no deal brexit from 15% to 5%. the consensus is that some sort of deal will be reached, but it would be disastrous if the u.k. , thato leave the e.u.
they will come to some sort of agreement. at this point people are showing to plan. haidi: with all of this greater uncertainty, day by day, what has the pound and doing? it is crazy because it is the best-performing g10 currency. talking to my sources, a lot of them have stepped away from the pound completely because it moves on every single headline. if you look at implied one-week itstility, it reached highest level since 2016. there will be turbulence ahead. thank you so much for joining us. she is our foreign exchange and rates reporter. now guidance on how to invest amid uncertainty of brexit, china slowdown and trade war. the former head of the london
stock exchange, now it ceo of the u.k. hedge fund cq x. he is charged with helping them expand in china. he was also a speaker at the milken institute and is joining us from the event. thank you for taking time out of your day for this. >> good morning, thank you. kathleen: as a man who was so many years the head of a stock exchange, now you are going to a hedge fund and charged with building a business in japan and china. in some ways it sounds like a tough time. japan is slowing down, trade war for china, and you might also say that gives it opportunity. how are you looking -- taking this on? on china, what are the biggest factors in? >> there is a significant presence in asia. concernhere is some about global slowdown, what is
happening to the curve, flattening, concerns about slowdown in china, but if one looks into greater detail there slowdown inme manufacturing areas, but we see continued expansion in services. the opportunity in japan for the major japanese investors, given the configuration of the curve in japan, is to expand their investments overseas to take it vantage of growth opportunities. this is an area we are well-positioned to be of assistance. kathleen: given you were in london are so many years and the concerns about a slowdown in europe have ratcheted up again -- you know about the german purchasing index getting weaker, europe,ond rally, is
apart from brexit and the risk it poses, he is europe in trouble? -- is europe in trouble? we have had some concerns for some time as it relates to growth in europe but those concerns also offer opportunities. we think the retail sector is looking active from a distress goodective, presents a opportunity. if one looks at global gdp, one looks at growth in a you am -- , this is not where growth is. china and the united states represent 50% of gdp on a global basis. for growth was in china alone. this is where investors are looking for opportunities. we are cautious about europe but
see attractive opportunities, in the distress sector and also in a range of specific sectors where we think corporate earnings growth is satisfactory haveor investors who minded to reconfigure, recalibrate portfolios in the es g area, europe still has opportunities. haidi: we are seeing china dealing with historically unprecedented growth and slowdown, some of those factors, are they political -- some of undeniably structural as well. what do you see given the --? tain environment xavier: it is a good question. the chinese economy is
interesting. they are effectively at a crossroads. china has been focused on investment, savings. today there is an important recalibration in china. recalibration towards the ansumer economy, towards expansion of markets. you might have noticed what was onceived as a crackdown shadow banking has been loosened and the regulatory and fiscal environment is becoming more supportive. process china is in the of a consumer driven innovation, small and midsized economy. china is reconfiguring itself to look like the united states, which will be of great importance to investors around the world as well as as a source of exports. a company where domestic capital
markets, innovation and the inversion into new products, wealth creation and well-paying jobs it effectively -- jobs effectively will offer opportunities. china has a fast-growing market, $50 billion last year, of green debt, was issued by china to fund the conversion of its power industry towards green industry, the conversion of its infrastructure, transportation towards a greener form. those investors, and there are many, who are recalibrating their own portfolios toward a greater focus on sustainable sources of power generation -- china is a great opportunity. that requires local presence, keen understanding of the market, investment savvy. this is an area of interest for global interests and investors.
very active at the moment. want to get your hot topic -- [speaking simultaneously] haidi: i want to get your view -- the hot market topics of the day, the yield inversion in the u.s. and also the capitulation with benchmark yields from new zealand to australia falling to a record low. just going to bring up this chart showing where we are seeing recessions tracking that phenomenon, 2001, 2009. do you still see this being a forward indicator of doom and gloom to come? xavier: we are not that gloomy we are more sanguine -- that gloomy. we are more sanguine. there is some slowdown on the back of technical factors, the impacts of the government shutdown in the united states is making itself felt. but we think the flattening --
there is no doubt that if you look at statistics going back to the 1960's, every significant flattening of the curve has been -- has been the prelude to significant economic slowdown, and in some cases recession. we are optimistic. we consider these conditions are rather technical. we think they are linked in part two treasury issuance on the short end of the curve. the feds balance sheet is essentially a longer duration, so we think there are technical consideration at the moment that are impacting the shape of the curve are these are temporary conditions. we believe the credit cycle has more years to go. if you look at default rates in the united states, they remain ,n the low side, the low end 2.5%, compared to 2008, 2009
where default rates hit almost 15%. one needs to be careful and selective. some sectors like media, retail, utilities, somewhat more impacted than others. we remain more constructive and think the cielo market -- yes? haidi: [laughter] we will have to leave it there. really happy to have you with us. japang us from the milken symposium in tokyo. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: -- haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney, where australian markets have just opened. kathleen: good evening from bloomberg's global headquarters. sophie: welcome to "daybreak: asia." haidi: how top stories. robert mueller finds no collusion, but doesn't clear the president of obstruction of justice. trump says it is a complete exoneration. president trump: there was no collusion with russia.