tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg March 26, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn and this is the "european close" on bloomberg markets. guy: stoxx 600, we do have energy stocks performing well. oil prices are elevated. the pound fading and earlier rally. comments from the head of the hard brexit caucus within parliament, it does seem that despite the fact that he is indicating he could back theresa may's withdrawal deal the dup are not and as a result the earlier rally is fading. we are risk on around the world. tradingghai composite below 3000 and down 1.5% overnight. one standout stock story is wirecard, the german fin tech coming out with comments the
external investigation into its accounting finding no significant wrongdoing as a result of which you can see the stock carping -- the stock popping quite sharply. jason: the s&p 500 is up as are the other indices. we have the 10 year yield at 2.34%. two your option coming up at 1:00. viacom is getting a bounce now that the at&t dispute has been resolved. also the on the earnings picture it is positive for viacom. performers,orst carnival is having a halo effect on the cruise companies. guy: let's turn back to the brexit story and get insight on what is happening. we are joined from our offices in london by tina fordham, citi's chief global political analyst. we will get indicative votes tomorrow at the brexit process. mp's are taking control.
what you think the outcome will be? tina: i'm not optimistic that a series of votes will bring any clarity to this brexit process. the prime minister canceled a so-called third meaningful vote after the dup made clear it will not support. the indicative votes are in effort to bring democracy into this process. i have said repeatedly there is no majority for any outcome so i do not see the indicative vote shedding any light or revealing a change in views from mp's. doesn't that depend on how the process is structured? if it is a whittling down of various options until we end up with one. wouldn't that provide clarity? isn't the process important? tina: absolutely. you are also alluding to the fact that the speaker has been quite influential on collecting which bodes -- on selecting
which votes are brought to the floor. macrong about it in terms, i think it is unlikely this process will bring about some sense of a mandate for mps to act. it points to what is so troublesome about the brexit process. that is the fact that it is existential. it is permanent. it is the future of the country and that makes it different from other pieces of legislation. vonnie: if that is the case, what will mps vote on? a new referendum? now a new referendum is far down the list of what mp's are prepared to consider. i was at a gathering last night of investors in london where we had a heartfelt discussion about which options would be best for the markets and which would be best for the country. because this is something that affects everyone and is not just a remote piece of legislation, i think what we agreed and you see
this reflected in the market view is what would be easiest for markets to deal with would be a customs union, a soft brexit. that maintains the status quo. but for political, social stability, i'm not sure a soft brexit, which would mean the u.k. still pays would be something that feels -- that heals a pretty acute ripped. the country seeds itself divided. that will not change soon. vonnie: it is an existential prices in britain and in parliament? they are looking to oust the leader. can another leader solve this existential crisis? tina: i don't think another leader, at least the ones on the short-lived -- on the short list are likely to be statesmanlike
and lead the country through the brexit. theresa may has been on borrowed time for a long time after the poor performance in the 2017 general election she called, she was there to do the parties -- the party's bidding and it appears tomorrow she will promise a date for her resignation and the promise of a caretaker leader, and that is an interesting possibility. could it be the prime minister and's up staying on as the leader of the conservative party , which is what neville chamberlain did in 1940 when winston churchill took over. we do not have a churchill figure to lead the country through brexit. guy: we understand she will be in front of the 1922 committee tomorrow. how long do you expect any kind of extension of article 50 now to be? tina: that depends on what
brussels once as well. the prime minister is keen to ensure it is a short extension. from the other side, from brussels, i think if she does not get her vote passed soon they will insist on a long extension and the brexiteers understand the longer it is before brexit happens, the less likely it is to take place at all. newnow, april 12 is the march 29 when it comes to brexit. patience is running thin in brussels. the prime minister still hopes to call a third meaningful vote. i'm not sure she will get it over the line. guy: that would provide -- that would require the dup devry backing. you see that happening -- to provide backing. tina: let's say the markets rally because the meaningful vote get over the line.
i think any relief as temporary because the country is so divided and because the effects of brexit are so unknown. in other words, we could see a vote pass and it might not stick. vonnie: what will we see tomorrow? a bunch of theater? a bunch of votes and debates? will anything emerge? tina: we will see mp's coalesce around a few options. you asked about a people's vote. ultimately, the more this goes on, the closer we get to a people's vote in part because the democratic mandate from the 2016 referendum is almost three years out. you can see in the polls that there is a more pronounced shift to remain. at this point, mp's do not want to go there, but i think it rises up and likelihood as other possibilities failed to gather momentum. vonnie: what are businesses and
business client saying to you? they must be at the end of their tether, it must be so difficult to make a decision in a vacuum. tina: businesses have to move forward with their brexit planning which has been in place for some time. ,hey cannot reverse or delay nor could they or should they assume brexit will be reversed. revoking article 50 happens to be the one thing the u.k. unilaterallyuld do without brussels meeting to approve. that is far down the list and i do not think we would see it become a meaningful option unless we were really against the wall. companies have to implement their brexit planning and i have heard many in the u.k. government say where is the voice of business? it has been muted which speaks to the polarization of the brexit issue.
companies do not want to alienate their clients and customers. are we heading for a general election this year and united kingdom? tina: the probability keeps going up. it will make it a general election every year. my pollster friends are getting a lot of business. the reason i'm skeptical a general election will do much to provide a mandate and democratic legitimacy is because the country is divided more and more remain. leave and as we saw by the huge turnout in london by the protest to stay in the eu, there is a wave of people who do not feel their interests are reflected by either of the parties. you could say that about some other electoral democracies as well, about the u.s. a new election is probably at risk overturning a hung
parliament. vonnie: tina portman is citi's chief global political strategist. she is staying with us. about .33%. up let's check in on bloomberg first word news. mark: president trump tweeted he intended to remove new sanctions against north korea. he actually wanted to lift penalties imposed on two chinese shippers that violated trade restrictions with pyongyang. that is until officials in his administration persuaded him to back off. seemed to devise and misleading explanation of his tweet. sanctions against the chinese remain in place and no additional measures against north korea were necessary. commons will have to decide what happens next. one conservative mp tells bloomberg he thinks the prime minister is on her way out even
sooner than some might expect. >> people are asking me how long is she going to be in number 10? she willdo i not think be switching on the christmas lights a number 10 this year, i very much doubt whether she will be giving away easter eggs as well. mark: parliament will vote on alternatives to amaze brexit deal tomorrow. strategies discussed included no deal brexit, a customs union, a second referendum, or even canceling brexit altogether. we will soon learn more about the ethiopian airlines crash that killed 157 people two weeks ago. an official says a preliminary report will be made public this week, though a final report will take months. there is speculation the planes anti-stalling software could have contributed to the crash as well as the crash of another boeing 737 max crash in october.
that model of plane has been grounded around the world. the u.s. supreme court throwing out a 300 and $15 million judgment against sudan from the uss cole bombing in yemen. the justices ruled sudan had not been properly notified as -- of the lawsuit. sailors injured in the bombing argued the african nation had provided support for al qaeda which claimed responsibility for the attack. 17 sailors died and dozens were injured when the ship was struck by a bomb laden boat. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you very much indeed. let me bring you an update on a bloomberg exclusive. aoyds of london has outlined plan to address allegations of sexual harassment. it has set up an independent whistleblower hotline.
slowing. we also see the stoxx 600 about .7%. some say this do to the fact that bonds are pulling back. they're been fields of the yield dropping. risk off as investors worried about the global growth fears driving up stocks. we are seeing -- dragging up stocks. we see a relief. whether it will last, hard to say. this is a six-month chart of the s&p 500 within a trading envelope. very reliable. capture the same deal to the upside this year. one brief burst to the upside on the rally we saw a couple weeks ago. now the middle of the range, the see the sellers push the s&p to the bottom of that range, now 20 to 2750 or so. big movers on the day in the u.s., take a look at viacom. they reaffirmed full-year
guidance for their affiliate revenue after striking a deal with at&t to prevent a blackout. the new york post reporting there could be merger talks between cbs and viacom. taking a look at the german bund slightly remains negative. that is the first time we've seen that since 2016 around the time of the brexit vote. now on this global growth slowing fears today we have a little bit of a pullback for the german bunds. interesting to see whether that will last. a strong downtrend suggesting there could be continued risk off. vonnie: thank you. we'll be keeping i on that option at 1:00. we are back with tina fordham, city groups -- citigroup's chief financial analyst. the mueller report is in. the dynamic has adjusted. what are you most concentrated
on out of the u.s. and ministration these days? administrationer was much anticipated but markets will move right past it. we have not seen the detail of the report. maybe we never will. from a u.s. political risk the markets perspective, the fact there are no new indictments, while there have been quite a few already, and the president was not identified as having it ised with russia means basically a win for president trump in the short-term and it is not an obstacle for markets. we do not think impeachment was a high risk for this year. has repeatedly said she was not interested in pursuing that. impeachment risk is down. i never got the sense from global investors that they were
hugely concerned. what i do think is the results and the initial remarks that have come from president trump since suggest 2020 is going to be an absolutely bruising u.s. presidential election. vonnie: right. just like that we are back to 2020 and potential policy. the latest today is the trump administration is moving to got the affordable care act. that is a risk for market participants. what sectors are you keeping an eye on in terms of policy risk? the pharmaceutical sector has been in the crosshairs for the trump administration for some time, especially with his focus on drug pricing. that continues to be the case. both one and defense, the one hand with more potential growth from the u.s. hundred, but also the extent -- the u.s. budget, but also to the extent
the president likes to use his twitter feed as a bully pulpit puts them at risk. what markets are most focused on is the fed and the growth outlook. guy: it is interesting you bring that up. let's talk about the yield curve inversion which we had last week , which seems to been a harbinger of a recession down the pipe. if the timing fits with history, we could end up with a recession in 2020. can president trump win if there is a recession in 2020? the yield curve inversion always sparks a huge amount of commentary. i am a humble political analyst. the reason why it matters is it brings to the fore the risk of a recession and our traditional economic forecasting models ahead of elections takes growth and approval ratings and from there we get the likelihood of
reelection. that link was broken a long time ago. i do not think a slight growth slowdown in the u.s. is going to make trump voters vote for a democratic candidate like elizabeth warren. that is one of the byproducts of polarization. crossing the aisle gets harder. in theblown recession late autumn of 2020 would hurt trump's chances. his formula is probably quite a strong one in terms of pulling in voters. we have no clear candidate on the democratic side. i think they will lean left and that might undermine their chances. i think trump comes in in a strong position. if it is not a serious recession, he is still -- his reelection is still my base case , very far out, i hasten to add. presidentst saw the
making a very big step on the golan heights. what impact will that have on the israeli election? it is not the first time i u.s. president has given a gift to israel ahead of elections. president trump has made no secret of his support for benjamin netanyahu and the state of israel going back to moving the u.s. embassy to jerusalem. the syria -- the golan heights move is not a huge surprise. i think there is one important byproduct. that is the united states cannot say a word about russia annexing crimea. guy: yes. quite easy to draw a line from one to the other. tina, thank you for spending time with us. tina fordham of citigroup. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is your being close on bloomberg markets. time for the latest bloomberg business flash. wall street's average bonus fell 70% last year. -- 17% last year. according to estimates from the york state come troller. -- comptroller. industryt in the increased in new york city. we works losses are glowing in step with its sales. the company said it has 400,000 customers worldwide. international growth helped the company double its sales to $1.82 billion but losses also more than doubled. losses at we work exceeding $1.9
billion. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. a quick look at u.s. markets. we are off our highs of the session but the dow is still about .5%. .66% and thep nasdaq up .7%. to stopopean stocks session highs as we head toward the end of trading in europe. some of the euros -- some of the oil stocks providing power. but it is the dax and the cac 40 outpacing the ftse. wirecard a strong story in the dax. the spanish market a significant underperformer. we will take a look at the european close next. this is bloomberg. ♪
end of regular trading in europe before we can it to the auction. mixed picture across the continent. the ibex in madrid flattening. let's show you what the markets look like. ftse, dax, and in the madrid market. ftse trading higher, the dax is doing reasonably well, the cac 40 having a reasonably better session. wildcard one of the standouts in the dax. food and beverage company doing well, health care having a solid session. feels more of a defensive market today. wirecard certainly a story to focus on. company thaterman had faced allegations of inappropriate accounting. it is now saying an external investigation has found no significant aberration when it comes to the accounting, though there is still an ongoing singapore investigation into the company. wirecard bouncing back strongly on the dax.
ocado, the u.k. technology company trading more strongly after another deal with another supermarket in australia. the market continues to like this. a strong performer the upside. i mentioned what is happening with the spanish market. underperformance. spanish banks looking to be responsible for that. thanks trading down in spain. a look at what the volume looks like. a little light on the volume. days butthe last 30 still a little light. we are race half hour gains in the s&p 500, still up .66%. for the doubt on the nasdaq we raise gains but are well up there. , wetwo year yield at 2.28% have that option in a half hour at 1:00.
that yield is 20 basis points lower from the day before the fomc, as is the 10 year yield. we will see what happens to demand of that option. gold is off its highs of the but still at 1314.40 announced. banks inbold buying by emerging markets. i thought it would point to a homebuilder. down about 2%. things,ther side of homebuilders are doing well because rates are staying low. guy: thank you very much. let's get more on the markets. the u.s. yield curve inversion put pressure on when the next recession might be. today's consumer confidence data suggests it might be not that far away. why investors still betting their better times ahead. we are joined by john orvis on
the side of the pond this week. why are equity markets looking as perky as they are? is there ist guess an ongoing bet that earnings are going to be better than the analysts are saying. p you take the look at ratios, they have risen sharply, more or less all of the gain in this big rebound can be accounted for by that re-rating by the higher perspective p. bet thats there is a the analysts have gotten the numbers long. we are not going to see the same kind of decline in earnings they are predicting. that is hard to sustain because as i try to point out in the column yesterday, if you look at the history of how bond yields
-- we have seen those overlap with margins and earnings, the sharp tightening we've recently seen, the fall in yields tends to be a company shortly thereafter by a fall in margins and earnings. vonnie: what about correlation? for a time it was about when bonds when up, stocks went up. that is not what we were used to. where are we now? john: that is an interesting question. i suspect we still do not go. that is one of the reasons why is worth looking at the numbers and the reaction we are seeing at present. riodnly you have a long pe in the 1980's and 1990's where you had the fed bubble and greenspan seems to be valuing stocks on the assumption earnings yield would move in the same direction as bond yields. then you had 20 years were the
exact opposite applied. i think at this point people care for more about growth than they do about cheap money. people have said this before that what matters is companies can show they can grow and the economy can show it grows rather than the sugar can keep growing in the form of low interest rates. i want to come back to a conversation we're referencing about 2020, the probably only a recession and the impact that could have on the 2020 election in the united states. a lot of talk at the moment of the yield curve inversion as a predictor of a recession if trump wants to get reelected, presumably he does not want to recession. investors must be paying attention to that. presumably he will want to keep the u.s. economy on the rails. john: there is one very strange point of view that he needs to
keep his people angry so it might be better. i do not subscribe to that. i've heard it. you would think by any normal local logic, if he can show the economy has got better on his watch -- the famous ronald reagan question, are you better agothan you were four years , that would make a big difference to his chances of getting elected. he has maintained a bedrock of support through everything. his poll numbers have never dropped below 40%. if he does have a good economy to show for himself and another 18 months, he will be difficult to beat. that does feed through to the fed and the fact that he is been criticizing the fed. what he has never done was actually do something concrete, which is nominate somebody the could expect to shift the fed. we have now done that with stephen moore.
he is only one governor but he is plainly very much attached to is anump agenda and that important signal for the markets. you can half and half about the feds, but what he continues to does note people suggest he wants changes. he is now suggesting he does want to shift the way the fed behaves. i would think, as many others would think that is because he wants to get reelected. vonnie: the last time you are on we were talking about your brexit monty python circus column. we just spoke to tina fordham of citigroup about this existential crisis. it seems monty python has gone full "the meaning of life." how does this get resolved? question, inew that
am happy with my job, but maybe there was something else i could be doing. , ibig punch -- my big hunch watched the main channels news programs on the amazing both we had in the commons. neither of them ever once mentioned the words violence or irish. if it was not for the issue of northern ireland we would have a brexit deal that would have passed parliament. ands all about the backstop the impart -- and the impossible way of reconciling the trading agreement with the treaty of rome. reason the fundamental we have this intractable of a problem. i am not sure myself that any of the interesting arguments about revoking article 50 are the different norway plus canada or the other way around, i'm not sure any of those suggestions
are worth discussing until britain makes a conscious effort to go to ireland and see if there is any way to resolve. it seems to me we can now see with the landing light of hindsight that david cameron had no business calling the referendum in the first place until you had very intensive negotiations with dublin and northern ireland to come up with some revision of the good friday agreement. was politically brave to reopen the good friday agreement. it is an agreement that stops people being killed. that is where it seems to me that at the moment this is something that is being ignored by the british body politic. it is less ignored by people who talk about the city of new york, where i normally live. in this country it is almost as though people have forgotten that the reason brexit is this
much of a mess is because of britain's historically troubled relationship with the island next-door. guy: that does not seem to be high on the agenda at the moment. john: i'm not sure it is on the agenda at all. guy: i do not remember ever being high on the agenda. john: exactly. guy: bloomberg's senior editor for markets, john authers. vonnie: let's check in on bloomberg first word news. mark: leading house democrats are trying to save the affordable care act. speaker nancy pelosi says the bill being unveiled today would provide money to help insurers pay the bills of the costliest patients. it would also block the trump administration from loosening obamacare rules for waivers that allow states to scale back on coverage. the white house once courts to deem all of the affordable care act unconstitutional. secretary of state mike pompeo is expanding a ban on u.s. aid to groups that promote or
provide abortions. the band will now extend to organizations that comply with the rule while getting moneys to others that do not. secretary pompeo says the trump administration will not allow american taxpayer money to pay for back door funding schemes. mozambique,one hit health officials are warning of a second disaster if disease breaks out. more than 760 people are confirmed dead and authorities say the number is likely to increase to medically. emergency responders are racing to contain deadly diseases such as cholera. hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. many are staying in camps with little or no clean water or sanitation. attorneys for jussie smollett say charges he lied to police about an attack have been dropped. jussie smollett was indicted on 16 felony counts related to making a false report that he was attacked by men who shouted
racial and homophobic slurs. upsecutors say smollett made the story because he was unhappy with his pay on the fox show and to promote his career. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie? vonnie: an update on a bloomberg exclusive. lloyd's of london has outlined a plan to address allegations of sexual harassment. it has set up an independent whistleblower hotline and is laying out potential lifetime bans for inappropriate behavior. this follows a bloomberg businessweek article which found a culture of sexual misconduct and had testimony to bloomberg from 18 women. is our us from paris reporter. lloyds coming out with some results from an investigation. explain to us where this emanated from.
bloombergmes from a businessweek story written by my colleague about the culture of sexual harassment at lloyds. it is a conservative, almost hidebound place. it is annexed jerk -- it is an insurance exchange. the way the exchange functions is still like the nyse was decades ago. things are done in print, things are done face-to-face, things are done at the pub and back of the exchange. the attitudes that members of the exchange held 40 or 50 years ago have not seem to have gone along with the rest of society. the story gavin wrote last week showed that. why is it taken so long for lloyd's to take action? itn: like many institutions, has a hard time changing itself unless pushed from the outside. the article businessweek
published last week gathered a lot of attention in the u k in particular. responses from members of parliament and that pushed lloyd's in a way it had not been pushed before. it had a ceo for five years the try to make diversity and changing the culture a hallmark of her tenure and she had a lot of resistance and push back on that. outside pressure has caused lloyd's to come out with this new plan. vonnie: lloyd's had a female ceo for many years and still the culture has not changed enough. she did try to change things yet we are only now getting to a point where they're going to be policies and procedures and actual policy. alan: it shows you the difficulty of actually changing a culture, particularly from the inside.
she was running lloyd's for five years, she made this a key priority. she had so much pushback she had to in her calendar set out timing to make sure she was not spending more than 25% of her time on diversity because there was so much pushback against her effort. it is only when you get the --side push, the idea they're not been any threads of regulation or parliamentary oversight or anything like that yet. even the idea there could be some outside political pressure or commercial pressure on lloyds as a result of this article is what is finally caused them to change. guy: bloombergs alan katz joining us from paris. thank you very much, indeed. tomorrow will be speaking to the ceo of lloyds. let's check with european markets. we are seeing a drop when it comes to the london markets and elsewhere across europe. london shopping during the auction process, finishing in
been under pressure for sometimes. advisors are saying this is a management issue and now they're looking for change so they're trying to oust the ceo. they want to replace him with a top-flight executive and oust the entire 12 person board. bed bath & beyond does have one of the oldest boards and retail. they are averaging 69.2 years. they are listed a slate of 16 .irector candidates overall, the street reacting positively to this news. companyjames saying the is a potential takeover to go private in the foreseeable future. shares rising a lot on the back of that. guy: the sense seems to be there behind when it comes to their internet sales. how bad are things? kailey: the investments there
making to get ahead on internet sales are weighing down the company margins. operating margins have declined 60%. also contributing to that, investors -- investments made in store to drive people in store. declinede sales have in the past seven years. it is not a pretty picture for bed bath & beyond. people are taking notice. the shorts are coming out in full force. short interest -- you are getting a short squeeze as the shares move more than 20% higher. cap, --executives from from gap, gas, and pure one. guess, and pure one. ailey: if they can get them.
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vonnie: live from london, your guy johnson, i'm vonnie quinn in new york and this is "the european close" on bloomberg markets. today we begin our special march madness tournament. sarah ponczek and michael mckee are squaring off in our first matchup. today we are experiencing a rebound in the stock market but global growth concerns do largely exist. they've not disappeared. aat is why i'm bringing you chart that takes a look into transport stocks. one of my sources call this the single most underreported cautionary signal in the market.
at the bottom you see a relative performance ratio currently hovering near the lowest level since 2012. etf investors at the top are also taking note. exit the08 million fund. the last time we saw an outflow of that size was in 2012. that relative performance ratio of transports versus industrials continued lower, to the lowest level since 2009. now it is time for the team to my west, michael mckee. michael: i have to start out by noting that because it is the battle the charts march madness addition i hedge my bets with the colors of duke and north carolina. what i want to talk about is that my chart is misnamed. i'm calling it little ammunition in the toolbox but what it is is be careful what you wish for. a lot of people in the markets
are pricing in a fed rate cut. that could be a problem if they are cutting rates for the reason the market thinks -- a recession is on the way. look at where we are right now. about 2.5% on the fed target. where are we in previous recessionary periods? much higher. the fed does not have much room to cut. we could have a problem if we going to recession. let me also shoes this yellow line. this is the inflation breakeven five years out, which is a good proxy for real rates. we are just about .6 basis points. high, it is fed is stimulative. they are still adding to the economy. look at where was at the beginning of the last recession. we were a bit about 4%. the fed is stimulating and at the same time too low in the market wants them to cut. be careful what you wish for. vonnie: that was phenomenal.
both of our charts were phenomenal but michael i might have to assess a penalty because you do not get to hedge your bets. and you to pick one said you did not know whether will be due for north carolina. in this instance, going through the next round is sarah ponczek. congratulations, sarah. do follow our brackets on the bloomberg. it is so much fun. a lot of us build out brackets. good, but far, so only in one of the conferences. melting away fast. checking u.s. markets, we have stocks higher. do not forget to watch for that option at 1:00 eastern.
adam smith, a democrat from washington state, called the move both unbelievably irresponsible and says the defense department is treating the military funds as a piggy bank where "you can simply go in and grab money for something it."you need china has suspended its so-called airworthiness certificate for the boeing 737 max 8 jet. review anment will proposed software modification before determining whether the plane is safe to fly after two weeks of crashes. the potential hits comes to bowing a day after china ordered $35 billion worth of airbus a320s, most from the series. venezuela has suspended school and work activities because of continuing power outages. this afternoon, the information minister declared the lights are coming back on. it is their second major power outage this month. the minister blames the blackouts on the attack on the power grid by opponents to the