tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg March 27, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
>> i'm shery ahn. kevin: i'm kevin cirilli. welcome to "balance of power." >> the u.k. parliament took control of the process last week, and today will vote on rival plans to prime minister's deal. bait is ongoing. votes or later. joining us is bloomberg's guy johnson. we are hearing that brings it hardliners could be backing the prime minister's deal, but she only has until this friday to pass it, so is it a little too late? guy: it could potentially be for theresa may. we are expecting her to announce what she will do about whether or not her withdrawal agreement is even going to make it back to the floor of the house of commons over the next couple of days. possibly tomorrow, more likely friday. she is still struggling to make the math work. we really need to hear from the dup, the northern irish party
that backs or government. that is one of the things happening here today. the other thing that is happening is this series of indicative votes that are potentially in competition to theresa may's withdrawal agreement. over the next half-hour or so i think we are going to understand what is on the amendment paper. mps are going to be given a series of options which they can vote on. what they are trying to do there is find out whether or not there is a majority in the house of commons for a different plan for brexit than the one been put forward by theresa may. we are probably going to whittle that down, and monday come back for a final vote. a 5:00 p.m. tonight we've got 1922 committee meeting of backbenchers here in westminster, and potentially there is a rumor that theresa may could announce the time at which she is going to step down as prime minister. a whole bunch of things happening here today. basically it is theresa may's
deal versus all of these other options. the question is if theresa may decides to step down as prime minister or set the date for it, is that going to get her deal across the line. kevin: if she doesn't step down, that would indicate calculus is that the deal would go through. in terms of replacements, is there a plan in place for how that would work? more than that, what would that trigger ultimately should she decide to step down? guy: it might trigger a general election, it might not. we don't know yet. there are a series of front runners that could potential he replace her. boris johnson would certainly be angling for the per minister -- for the position. nots unclear whether or simply saying she will step down will provide enough impotence. there are -- enough impetus. not enough mpsy
that have said they will vote for her deal. she needs the erg and dup to make it work. it is going to be very tricky to get the masterwork by friday. friday.ath to work by it is not a clear picture of what is going to happen. shery: we are hearing eu officials are now stepping up contingency measures on a potential no deal brexit. where does the eu stand on all of this as everything goes on, these indicative votes and potentially another third vote on prime minister may's deal? is: what the eu has said theresa may needs to get her deal across the line by friday, and if it doesn't, then we are likely looking at a very long extension. added into that mix, once we start to get an understanding of what they're potentially could be a majority in parliament for, the eu might allow even more
time to make that work. hence, we could be looking at this kind of long extension. it is unclear whether that would be a second referendum or the u.k. moving towards some sort of customs deal with the eu. there's also this option of a type of norway plus deal come which would be very close association with the single market or even number ship of the single market, plus also some sort of customs union deal. all of these options could potential he be on the table. i think the eu is now saying if you can't get the deal over the line by friday, we are looking at a very long extension. kevin: because you are in the eye of the storm, with 70 different moving parts, in the immediate -- with so many different moving parts, in the immediate next hours, what is mp you are watching? who is going to decide what happens in the next few hours? guy: i'm going to enter that
with two answers. i am going to try to see which of the potential outcomes, aside from theresa may's deal, that mps are backing. it will be interesting to see where that majority falls. the other one is the result of this 1922 committee meeting at 6:00 this evening here in westminster. if theresa may announces she is going to step down, that could change the calculus. it may not come about the fact that the prime minister announces she is stepping down would be a significant evolution in this process. shery: guy johnson westminster green, thank you so much for that -- guy johnson from westminster green, thank you so much for that. emma chandra is catching us up with the latest market action in london. emma: we are looking at red across the screen. all of the major indexes in the u.s. in the red, falling lower
today. we are looking at a loss of the dow10 of 1% for jones, 4/10 of 1% for the s&p 500, and the biggest losses for the nasdaq. every sector bar one is in the red, just consumer discretionary in the green, basically trading flat. let's take a look at some of the movers. if we take a look at the next board, we should be able to show you some of the whole bidders -- the homebuilders, doing better today. they are on a five day winning streak. there are earnings out today that showed orders in the first quarter for lennar were better than expected. also seeing falling mortgage rates in the u.s., giving a bit of a boost to homebuilders. that key spring selling season is just around the corner. other movers today are the airlines.
we should be able to see that southwest, american, and delta all rising. southwest up some 1.5%. this is despite southwest cutting its guidance this morning. credit suisse analysts saying that was largely baked in, so investors aren't responding to that for the second quarter. also hearing today that boeing is trying to embark on a bit of a public relations spree as they try to recapture confidence in the 737 max jet, the one that southwestrounded, and is the biggest operator of those jets. i wanted to talk to you about oil. it was up earlier, wti crude. it has since fallen, but off of the lows on the news that u.s. inventories had risen. we are looking at wti across the quarter rising more than 30% and headed to its best quarter in 10 years. shery: emma chandra, thank you
so much for that. coming up next, the white house's big push on trade. president trump makes passing his new nafta deal a legislator priority. how republicans plan to get democrats on board. we will hear with one -- we will hear from one of the lawmakers who met with the president about it next. bloomberg. ♪
-- the green new deal has created within the democrat party seeking reelection. senator elizabeth warren is calling for the breakup of what she says are unfair farming monopolies. she says the interest of multinational corporations and lobbyists have won out over the needs of smaller family farms. she also proposes breaking up vertically integrated agricultural businesses like tyson. houston's refining it a stream may be on the verge of a crude supply shortage because of safety concerns restricting traffic on the houston ship channel for a fourth day. a chemical fire that spewed toxins into the air prompted the coast guard to step in. massive nationwide blackout struck venezuela early today. the outage comes just as service
was being gradually restored from two days of intermittent service. an estimated 91% of the country has lost connection to the internet. venezuelan president nicolas maduro says u.s. and local opposition are responsible. industry experts and critics believe it is due to poor maintenance. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. kevin: thank you. yesterday at the white house, president trump met with lawmakers about getting into or nafta 2.0.ca, one of those is a number of the house armed services committee, congressman michael waltz. is usmca going to be ratified? rep. waltz: it is going to be ratified, and it has to be ratified. this is essentially the new nafta.
nafta was 25 years old, and a lot of things have changed since the early 1990's. it addresses digital issues, intellectual property rights issues. this deal is great for florida in the sense that we have 14 ports across the state, a lot of agricultural issues, and throughout the winter, most of our food products that are imported, particularly for the eastern half of the united states, coming through florida. more broadly, i think we are going to see some bipartisan consensus. we certainly should. a lot of those rust belt states that went for the president in 2016 that lost so much manufacturing in the last 20 ands are now benefiting looking for this deal. in the business sector, they need certainty of this deal, and we needed to move forward. shery: i was speaking to the former u.s. ambassador to
candidate this weekend, and he wasn't optimistic about the fate of the usmca. take a listen. >> now we have what we call bad calendar management in politics. we've ended up in this spot facing a democratic congress and 2020 race, a new government in mexico, and parliamentary elections coming up in canada. i think we are in a difficult political place. shery: you spoke to the president himself. his priorityp on list is the usmca at this point? will it pass this year? rep. waltz: we talked a lot about how we are going to move this through. representative steve scalise was really leading our delegation. he is in active discussions with speaker pelosi and her office. this is a bipartisan win for the country. a number of states and industries are affected. they are looking to get it to the floor at the earliest in may, the latest in july.
to get this thing through, it is either this new deal or no deal, and he president was very clear about that. i think there's a number of industries that need the certainty of knowing what this framework is going to look like, so if we want to keep the economy moving forward on what should be a bipartisan issue, i think it will move. shery: i've got to say, you don't sound very convinced that it will actually be ratified this year, especially as we see canada and mexico still calling or stealing aluminum import tariffs to be lifted -- for steel and aluminum import tariffs to be lifted. can this deal happen with those in place? rep. waltz: i think it can. there truly are national security and locations on these tariffs. i was just at an armed hearing dealing with china and what we are facing in terms of threats around the globe. we can't find ourselves with no u.s. steel industry, no u.s. aluminum industry, having to
build ships and fifth generation goodsrs and import raw from china and are potential adversaries. i understand the concern, but at the end of the day we have to have a u.s. domestic capability, and if we can get this deal through, and i think you could, you could see some relief on the tariff issue as well. kevin: there's a lot of political maneuvering president trump could deploy to push congress to move a little faster than perhaps democrats would like. withdrawing from nafta in particular, do you think that would pressure democrats in the house, where they have the majority, to jump start the conversations? waltz: the president was clear, new deal or no deal. if they had issues, there is some, from what i understand, maneuverability in the implement in language. we cannot change the underlying
agreement. obviously canada and mexico would have to be on board with that. at the end of the day, i understand the new mexican government is ready to take us up, including labor reforms, which is very significant. the canadians need this deal as much as we do, and i really do think you are going to see it move. there are a lot of moderate theirats who want manufacturing rust belt constituents to move forward. kevin: congressman michael waltz from florida, also, are of the house armed services committee, where conger's has rejected the request -- had rejected the request to spend on border wall funding. i'm sure you disagree with that decision, but was that the right call to use depend on budget for the wall? rep. waltz: i don't like this.
i don't like at the president had to do this, but this has been an ongoing issue that multiple congress is and administrations have failed to get done in terms of securing our border. i do believe that border security is national security. move people and drugs and weapons and all kinds of bad things. we can't get meaningful legal immigration reform until we secure the border. otherwise you are going to have the same problems. the president was very clear he's going to do this. i don't like that he had to go to the defense budget. at the end of the day it is within the pentagon's authority to shift these moneys. there is nothing extradition to -- there is nothing extradition about that -- there is nothing extradition about that. shery: i can defend secondary patrick shanahan had this to say -- acting defense secretary
patrick shanahan had this to say. given a legal order from the commander-in-chief, we are executing on that order. i have been deliberately working to be transparent in this process, fully knowing that there is downsides which will hamper us. shery: you served in the military. you are not concerned this will weaken the institution? rep. waltz: no, i'm not. the risk he was talking about is a pentagon authority that is a little in the weeds to slide around certain amounts of money. they are looking, frankly, at rawing thatts' withd authority in future congresses. but in terms of national security, no. the risks of having an open border far outweigh the risks of some type of down in the weeds authority. at the end of the day, we have to secure our border.
i actually started in the office in the pentagon in a previous life in the counter narcotics office. the defense department provides support to anti-smuggling operations all the time. what they are looking to do is provide barriers on known drug smuggling routes that are moving -- again, a drug smuggler that can move drugs and people can also move weapons and terrorists and all types of other things. they don't care. it is a marriage of convenience from their perspective. we have known cases of has below , at dutch o -- known cases of iranian terrorist organization, working with smugglers on the border. i hate that we had to do it this way, but congress hasn't gotten it done. kevin: thank you to congressman michael waltz, a republican from florida, and number of the house
armed services committee. appreciate your time. shery: we have some bricking news. turkey's stock had -- breaking news. turkey's stock exchange has closed down in the biggest drop since 2013. nude volatility in the lira prompting -- new volatility in the lira prompting investors to sell. this is bloomberg. erg.
♪ kevin: this is "balance of power " on bloomberg television. shery: the president isn't done with obamacare yet. the trump administration is siding with ada opponents who argue the law is unconstitutional and should be scrapped entirely. speaker pelosi quickly denounced the decision, but many democrats are looking at this as a
political gift heading into 2020. for more, let's bring in our york ande in new philadelphia. we know that health care was the single most important voter issue when democrats took back the house last year, followed by the economy and jobs. was this essentially perhaps a birthday gift for house speaker pelosi on her 79th birthday yesterday from president trump? >> it certainly is something democrats care on awful lot about, and americans as a whole, health care remains a really critical issue. the cost of prescription drugs, full coverage, and these are things that people want and they do not want the trump administration scrapping the affordable care act and moving towards a replacement with no policy prescription in order. one of the things i think we are going to see here is we are going to see this on the 2020
campaign trail as a key issue. when you go out on the campaign trail, this is something boaters are asking about. what are you going to do to protect the nation's health care? if we want to think of it as a as opposed toin, making the affordable care act better and perfecting what we have, we are again talking about scrapping it, which republicans have tried to do ad nauseam for the last nine years now. kevin: jeannie makes a great point, joe, and how this is going to set up the parameters of the 2020 debate. i was struck by this when i was on capitol hill yesterday. president trump says republicans are now going to focus on health care, but no formal unveil of rollout of a concrete policy plan. on the right, there's no details in terms of a health care plan, and on the left, no one knows what is in the green new deal. when are we going to get specifics on either accord? >> they've got some time to work on it. they've got to come up with
something that makes sense and that offers them a path toward something better than the affordable care act. americans did not likely individual mandate, and donald trump was successful in getting rid of that. now standing with the court against the affordable care act, republicans are going to be tasked with coming up with something that is better, something that works for americans, something that will be popular for americans, and that doesn't burden the taxpayers. shery: we will hear more from our pundit panel coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
u.s. and chinese officials resume trade talks. robert lighthizer and steven mnuchin go to beijing thursday and friday. the vice premier plans to travel to the states the following week. negotiators have voiced concerns china is backtracking. e.u. recalling all ships involved in a joint mission to rescue migrants in the mediterranean sea. operation sophia has been reducing migrant smuggling. a lack of naval support makes it harder. the anti-migrant government won't allow rescued migrants into ports. u.s. regulators plan to tighten rules that govern how medicines are manufactured. fda wants to ensure the safety frompply with recalls abroad on the rise. makers of generic drugs and key ingredients in china, india and
elsewhere had in some cases, -- hiddenunfavorable or destroyed unfavorable data. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: breaking news. saudi aramco acquiring 70% stake. this confirmed from earlier reporting on twitter. there was an agreement to buy a majority stake from the kingdom sovereign wealth fund. this has been confirmed. we are back without political panel. panel. our political joe, let me get started. we're hearing the gop strategy, 2020. how much do they need to know? would it be enough to keep the approval ratings above 40% and make the other candidates look
extreme and toxic? joe: that is right. for the most part, you have a president riding high with the base. as long as the economy stays strong, you keep unemployment hovering 4%, the challenge for democrats is, what will they do that is better than that? you have so many democrats running, likelihood is they will beat each other up. net plus for the president. the president is content to sit back and be president, let democrats fight and call each other names and try to investigate him, all of which will benefit him. kevin: in terms of what we have seen in the past when he for hours, all the infighting within the democrat party, will make it more difficult for democrats to get to messaging. this green new deal i was struck yesterday in the senate, particularly when four anchin,ts, joe m
joining with republicans, what do you make of the messaging? aoc to bemature on pushing for this without details of what precisely it means? >> democrats have to be careful. they don't have a long time before the election. they have to be careful about messaging. big challenge nancy pelosi and chuck schumer have had. particularly, nancy pelosi. when you have a diverse caucus, you have differing ideas. the big split between the liberal wing and the more moderate rowing -- moderate wing. it is too early to be voting on the green new deal. this is not a piece of legislation ripe for a vote.
how are you going to pay for this? democrats have a danger as they go 2020. they have to play not just to aoc york, the 14th district, represents but they have to play to the midwest, the middle of the country. they are not going to win unless they win wisconsin, minnesota, pennsylvania, those kinds of states. we sought interesting piece not long ago talking pennsylvania voters. they are not nearly as liberal as some of these policies going forward. democrats have a lot to talk about. it is good for voters to have that conversation now as we move toward primaries. shery: how far should the democrats take obstruction of justice in the robert mueller going 2020?
jeanne: they should seek the full report, so we can all view it. that should not be the end all of democratic focus in congress. she nancy pelosi credit, has said over and over again, our focus should not be on impeachment, it should be on the positive agenda going forward. american voters are not going to vote on that. what are you doing for me? 2018. you in in what have you done? this is about the ballot box. an incumbent president is formidable. they will have a big fight on their hands as they face donald trump, particularly if the economy remains strong. philly.ou are in i grew up right outside of their. i cannot help myself. pennsylvania politics -- key independent voters.
michigan, where the president is headed tomorrow night for a rally, talk to me about independent voters. 70,000 voters who previously voted for obama crossed over for trump. does the green new deal play well with them? joe: you hit the nail on the head. state,vania is a diverse a state that lets you know what the country is thinking. clearly, a lot of democrats, blue-collar democrats crossed 2016 and they will vote for him again, 2020. the green new deal, anything that sounds way left of center, all that will do is bring them closer to trump and to republicans. democrats have to make sure they don't mistake what they think is trump fatigue for a willingness of democrats and the country to move far left or toward
socialist policies. no appetite for that in pennsylvania, nationwide. democrats are wise to be circumspect. nancy pelosi has struck the right tone. they have to be careful. pennsylvania is a state that will tell you exactly where the nation will go. as long as you are talking green new deal, guaranteeing every american a job, costing the economy trillions of dollars, you will find those voters will go with donald trump. shery: thank you for joining us. joe watkins, former aide to george h w bush. kevin: i thought it was interesting to hear the perspective in terms of the rust belt states and how trade policy is playing with voters.
congressman rodney davis, republican from illinois, a member of the house agriculture committee, chairman of the republican main street caucus, at the white house yesterday, meeting with president trump about the trade proposals, particularly on the issue of u.s. mca. we had one of your colleagues talking about this. how much pressure can the president place on congress to force the issue of getting nafta 2.0 ratified? >> i don't think he needs to put enough pressure on congress. we should do it because it is a good new deal. this is an opportunity the president and his team took advantage of to put in some of the democratic priorities. those complaints that were never addressed previously. this has better worker protections that many of my democratic colleagues have been calling for for decades.
it will allow districts like mine, middle america, to have the agriculture and manufacturing trade we already take advantage of between countries, between our country and canada and mexico. kevin: do you think if the president withdrawals from nafta to trigger this type of, to trigger the debate in congress, would that be a smart maneuver? >> i certainly don't think that should be the option. we in congress, and the democrats who control the house, should call for the usmca to come up for a vote. quit playing political games with such an important deal for states like illinois. we are one of canada's leading trading partners. i have some of the agribusiness giant that also use the products my farmers produce in central and southwestern illinois. we have to have this new deal in place. this addresses many concerns regarding agriculture, manufacturing, worker protection, standards, many
things that in a bipartisan way we have been calling for. the trump administration got this done. they got it on paper. it is time for democrats to step up to the plate and do what they said they would do to help us get an agreement in place. shery: we could be getting a u.s. china trade deal any day now. we are hearing that china has agreed to increase imports. how meaningful are these concessions? china is suffering from production, due to the african swine fever. administration is close. illinois,rs in especially soybean producers, have been hit hard. china is not a fair trading partner. we have to have an administration who is willing to stand up to china and get a good deal. it will be better for american workers and for american
manufacturers and our farmers. i hope a trade deal is in place. if a deal with china is announced, it makes it easier for democrats to call up the usmca and vote for it. shery: secretary perdue was telling me if we actually get a deal, they could be a boon for farmers. >> we could easily see, if we are able to come to resolution, doubling or tripling that number over 4, 5 years. shery: how much will this really help farmers? even before the tariffs from china, we are seeing weak pricing, tight credit, corporate monopolies affecting farmers. don't you need a longer-term strategy? >> i agree with my good friend. this would be a huge win for america's farmers, especially illinois farmers. prices have been low.
we have to get them up but we have also had historic yields. supply has been high. we need a marketplace. if we have more markets to sell our american agricultural products, our farmers will profit in illinois and throughout the country. good trade deals, fair trade deals help both sides. in the past, some deals have not benefited america as much as it has trading partners. this administration is working to change that. mechanisms.cement the president has said, on the issue of china, he might keep tariffs in place to see whether or not the chinese follow through with any type of deal they ultimately make with the u.s. do you think that is the right move to enforce the trade deal? >> the way they work, the
president, his administration will negotiate these deals. i hope we have good mechanisms outside of tariffs. that is one thing i worked on during the trade promotion authority debate. i bucked my own party when we were in charge to put better enforcement mechanisms in place. i worked with senator kirkman and my colleague in the house to work, to ensure our government, you can fight back against unfair trade. it is not a coincidence china tried to decimate our american steel industry. it is not a coincidence president trump began to address that on the campaign trail. bringing china to the table, if it relates, if it becomes a better deal for america and the people i represent, good. let's sit down, make sure we have a good agreement and not kid ourselves that china trades fair.
thank you for joining us. the president last week reiterated he will continue those tariffs on chinese imports until he is sure beijing is complying with a deal. what way out is there for china to accept such a deal? nick: it remains to be seen. they are being asked to make a number of adjustments in their policy. in exchange, they may not get relief on tariffs. that sounds like it will be difficult to get an agreement on that basis. kevin: we were hearing from so many different voices on this. from the french american , for your response.
>> from europe's point of view, the u.s., there is short-term wariness, mistrust maybe, with some of the erratic nature of the trump administration, but long-term, solid ally relationship. with china, it is pretty much the other way around. stephen nugent and robert lighthizer -- steve mnuchin and robert lighthizer headed over for trade talks. what do you make of it? nick: europeans are conflicted. they are talking tougher strategy but you see xi jinping convincing italy to endorse belt and road. xi jinping signing a gigantic deal for the sale, chinese purchase of airbus aircraft, china is auropeans
very important market for them. airbus jetmillion orders from the french, also, the chinese halting canola oil purchases from canada. speculation is that it is linked aweissues surrounding hu cfo, how important has it been for chinese officials to flex their muscles? nick: the airbus deal is a step in that direction, reminding europeans of the importance of the chinese market. they are trying to head off this tougher policy towards china that the eu has been discussing internally. upperhandterms of the in the u.s.-china trade talks, the china says they are playing the long game, outplaying president trump. american say, look at the eco
data. we have the leg up. when you crunch the numbers, what are you finding? close to balance. some people in the trump administration think we have the upperhand. there are a number of factors that don't support that. china is not dependent on exports the way it was a few years ago. exports relative gdp have declined. china share of global exports is going down. there economy is driven primarily now by domestic consumption rather than exports. there has been a tendency on the part of a trump administration we have china over the barrel and they will have to come to terms. shery: the chinese have been expanding diplomacy. how successful have they been with italy, having them sign up to the belt and road initiative? nick: it is an important step forward.
the u.s. vigorously campaigned against that decision. they decided to go ahead anyway. it is another fiction in the u.s.-european relations, starting with aluminum tariffs, now extending to the belt and road project, even angela merkel saying positive things about it over the weekend. shery: during xi jinping's trip in europe, not once was the cybersecurity issues mentioned. standso we know, europe when it comes to not only cybersecurity but focused on huawei? do they have a common position against china? nick: i don't think so. the europeans are keeping options open. some of them think they can manage the risk. willnk it is likely huawei be the dominant supplier of equipment for 5g in most of
europe before it is over. they have a huge technological lead, cost advantage, many telecom operators in those countries are already using huawei equipment. i think they have a leg up. the u.s. campaign to deflect huawei from gaining that market doesn't seem like it is really working yet. shery: thank you for your insight. next.of the hour, is this is bloomberg. ♪
emma chandra is here. companies have significant businesses built around u.s. government health care programs, some 14 million members, having a significant business built around medicaid and the aca. members, 5.5 million also has business built around medicaid and the aca, also a big medicare business. today overling concerns of antitrust issues as both companies overlap. president trump renewing the battle with democrats over the aca. care.t showing health boom in deals. if this goes through, it will add to that. first quarter, 2019, best
quarter globally in 12 years. impacteds, how is it -- cvs, how is it impacted by this deal? >> it is down 3.6%. it was more than 4% earlier. wellcare's management business through caremark. it is now expected to go in-house. $20 billionost cvs in pharmacy spending. shery: you have a special guest tonight. kevin: donald trump, jr.. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: there are 30 minutes left in the trading day in europe. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy johnson is with me in london. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. guy: a big brexit moment is happening right now. let's talk about what is going on. we are watching the scenes unfold in the house of commons. this is parliament trying to take control of the brexit process, at least temporarily. it is preparing to vote on a set of rival plans to theresa may's deal, the aim to find an agreement that could get a majority, something the prime minister has not been able to do. we will get the indicative votes. how will they work? vonnie: mp's will put forward their alternative proposals. it will be up to the speaker of the house of commons to decide which are voted upon.