tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg March 27, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
vonnie: there are 30 minutes left in the trading day in europe. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy johnson is with me in london. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. guy: a big brexit moment is happening right now. let's talk about what is going on. we are watching the scenes unfold in the house of commons. this is parliament trying to take control of the brexit process, at least temporarily. it is preparing to vote on a set of rival plans to theresa may's deal, the aim to find an agreement that could get a majority, something the prime minister has not been able to do. we will get the indicative votes. how will they work? vonnie: mp's will put forward their alternative proposals. it will be up to the speaker of the house of commons to decide which are voted upon. they could include things like a second referendum, very
different to know how it will all play out. right now starting about .2% weaker versus the u.s. dollar. guy: the plan is the ideas will be voted on later on. mps will be able to vote on as many as they want. voting begins around 7:00. expecting the results after 9:00 this evening. then we will end up monday morning with a short list which mps are unlikely to vote on again. the most popular will come back for another round of votes on monday. there is one strand of what is happening in westminster. the other strand is we have theresa may trying to figure out whether she will be able to bring her withdrawal agreement back to the floor of the house of commons and get another vote and get it across the line. we've a meeting later on of the 1922 committee. there is potential she will announce a date which she will step down. we have also been hearing from
the speaker of the house and he has signaled it will be hard for theresa may to bring that boat back to the house of commons. let's get a sense of what is going on. our bloomberg opinion editor. what is going on with theresa may's deal? the speaker has scuttled her plan to bring it back to the house of commons and we are expecting an announcement from the dup on the deal and we have this 1922 committee meeting. put it together for me. >> a huge number of moving parts. theresa may has not given up on her deal. that is something we always have to keep in mind. per call has said of the deal is not changed substantially, he will not allow to be brought to a meaningful vote. what does substantially mean? he is reminding the government
he has made a ruling. it would be inconceivable for the government to bring it back without first checking with the speaker's office. call hard to imagine or will preventer from bringing it back if she manages to find some way to recast it. the eu changing the date for the extension or an offer to the d up. that is staying in the background and that is not what they are voting on. the big question is with -- whether any of those votes will produce something like what may got for her deal so parliament can say option b or option d is competing with theresa may's deal or has more votes and that would concentrate minds. vonnie: right now we're hearing from theresa may spokesperson that brexit discussions with the dup are ongoing. ireland is one of the sticking points here. has been all along. this process is almost beside
the point because if we ever get past this, all of the original problems remain, correct? therese: exactly. some of the options being considered today are nonnegotiable. example, one that says let's hold the relationship with the eu at a standstill and negotiate a free trade agreement. the eu has made it clear that will not happen. any agreement that needs to be reached will have to include something for the irish border that will look very much like the backstop that is being rejected. all paths to resolution go through ireland. the dup is under huge pressure to cave in. as of this morning, the word was they would prefer a long extension to agreeing to theresa may's deal. i do not think we should underestimate the pressure being applied on the dup from all sides. from some conservatives also who
are saying this entire brexit vote is in jeopardy if we do not find a way to get it over the line now. a long extension could lead to further delays and who knows what. guy: what is the labour party backing? therese: the labour party is backing several different votes tonight. they are backing one that includes a customs union, a permanent customs union, there are backing a plan that includes a norway style option with a customs arrangement, they are backing a confirmation vote which says that theresa may's deal should not be approved unless the public approves it. they are spreading their bets. there has been movement in the labour party because the norway option they are considering would include the free movement of people so it would bring written back in the single market and that is the first time we've heard jeremy corbyn's party except that. -- accept that.
they're not putting their eggs in one basket but they are not backing theresa may's deal. if the dup do not come onside she will need votes. guy: -- vonnie: she is addressing tories at 9:00 -- at 1:00 eastern, 9:00 london time. what will be new today? therese: it is hard to imagine what more she could say to try committeee the 1922 to come over to her side. there is a lot of speculation she would be offering a firm date for her to step down. there is talk that conservative party donors are holding back and waiting for a sign the conservative party will have new leadership. she may try to offer some kind of latter for those still holding out to climb down on in the form of the date for her resignation. that remains to be seen.
otherwise she will just be trying to convince them her deal is still better than the alternative. guy: we will leave it there. clark andome, ken firm remainer. we will continue to monitor all of the brexit developments ahead of the various developments we see throughout this evening. let's check or european markets are. the banks, the leading sector. markets under pressure. not down by much but the ecb's cheered on potentially negative rates having a positive effect on the banking sector. philadelphia selling off one stock. we have amd, we have microchip technology, analog devices all down 2% to 4%. a selloff in the united states.
mark: president trump is expected to sign a memo calling for an overhaul of frame main freddie mac as soon as today. the administration has been pushing to free fannie and freddie from federal control. the white house will likely start the process by asking treasury and housing officials for a legislative and regulatory change to the housing and finance giants. congressional hearings begin today in to the federal aviation industries oversight of boeing before and after deadly crashes of it 747 max. the transportation department inspector general is scheduled to testify and is expected to reveal plans to significantly revamp the faa oversight of airplane construction. as health officials have feared, colorado has begot -- cholera has begun to spread in mozambique. hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from their homes and are sheltering in squalid conditions.
cholera is spread by contaminated food and water and can kill within hours if not treated. weeksone which struck two ago has left 800 people dead. vladimir putin once russian athletes to play by anti-doping rules ahead of next year's olympics. he says his country must prevent opponents from using sports for political ends. the use of substances could act against russia's interest. russia's team was barred from last year's winter olympics for repeated doping violations. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. back to you in london. guy: thank you very much. aramco is acquiring a stake in aramco.
will kennedy joins us with more. this is a transaction we were waiting for for some time. it has been long in the gestation. ipo andabout aramco then talking about this transaction. explain the journey we have been through and how this outcome is different and why the difference of the ipo? will: it is a clever way of channeling a big amount of cash from one part of the saudi state to another. if you think back to a few years ago when the crown prince announced he wanted to sell to finance hiso economic transformation program, he cannot do that. the valuation was too big for investors. in another way for that money. this deal is it. what it does is uses aramco's balance sheet to pay for the state in the chemical company sabic and then instead of $100
billion in the ipo they will toe $70 billion from sabic make investments inside and outside saudi arabia as part of been solman transformation agenda. vonnie: now there is no need for an ipo and everybody is happy. what is the difference? will: i'm not sure saudi arabia is ready to say there is no need for an ipo. the consensus is this is a --uation -- the crown prince it is not going to happen anytime soon. it is an in the family transaction. a clever structure to send cash to channel that money. the question is how aramco is going to finish that deal. they will need to find a way to pay for it. a couple of ideas that have been moved to -- mooted, staggered payments. we think saudi aramco is paying
for its first ever bond issue, that would be fascinating. that would force the company to release detailed financial statements, something it has not done since the company was nationalized in 1970. guy: does this have a portfolio effect? ,f you are have a massive ipo you would see others said -- does this have the same effect? is there a portfolio effect in the bond market question -- in the bond market? what ripple effect will this cause? will: the bond issue will be important. it will be a test of saudi and anr appetite indicator of the problems they have had with khashoggi, etc.. at $10 billion it is not enough to make a ripple the same way a $100 billion ipo would affected the global equity market.
the be easier for capital markets to digest. vonnie: our thanks to will kennedy. there is a selloff in the united states. let's check global markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: we have a strong sense of risk off on this wednesday. take a look at the s&p 500 down .9%. now clearly down more than 1%. the chip index has been down more than 2%. investors selling stocks. the dax in germany has been solidly higher. u.s. stocks weighing on european stocks and oil another risk asset joining in on the party, down more than 1%. that on a week inventory report. anyway you look at this, investors fearful of economic growth and fearful why bond yields are falling. take a look at the one-month chart of the 10 year yield. this is the biggest move down for bond yield good the tenure down since june of 2016.
that was the initial brexit selloff. bond rallying in a big way. the question is does this affect monetary policy or does it reflect global growth slowing, the fact we have stocks lower would suggest growth fears. if we take a look at a chart in the bloomberg, this is inconclusive but interesting. what we are looking at is the 10 year yield and aren't is the dax dax andnd orange is the white the s&p 500. we have this policy shift worldwide, you see the 10 year yield going lower, the s&p 500 going lower, the dax not joining inasmuch. it'll be interesting to watch the index for more reason as to why yields are falling so much. finally we have a few movers here in the u.s. and europe. in the u.s., amg falling 3.7%.
technology week -- technology weak. salesforce.com down. the company could be worried about their renewals and sap falling in sympathy. finion as -- down as the chipmaker cut their outlook. guy: let's move from one market story to another. sweden's leader speak -- speaking at a quest conference -- sweden's leader speaking at a press conference saying money laundering is unacceptable. a bank's headquarters raided earlier by authorities in sweden. paul manafort received dubious payments through the stockholm-based lender. joining us now is a bloomberg opinion columnist. it has been a busy day for the bank once again.
we see the latest allegations coming out of sweetest media. the one that -- out of swedish media. the one that stuck out is the bank cannot been on the up and up with u.s. authorities and that is something you do not want to do. >> lots of moving parts and the raids were nothing to do with money laundering but were related to potential allegations of insider trading. that would be because management had made some shareholders on the money laundering allegations. that is more for management concern there. -- u.s. regulators, that would be a different circumstance than the money laundering itself. vonnie: what we know about the report of paul manafort connection? elisa: we know this payment would have gone through and it would be part of a large sum.
allegations were of a number closer to $10 billion of suspicious payments over a number of years and now that number seems to have swelled to as much as $20 billion a year. this would be part of a wider scale issue. guy: we will leave it there. thank you very much. press conference between the swedish prime minister and the danish prime minister. we will bring headlines do you. this is bloomberg. ♪
businesses around u.s. health care programs. tene is focused on medicaid and the affordable care act markets. this takes place as debate over the aca heats up. we've been speaking with the co-ceo of the tpg at a bloomberg summit today. says he was shocked following the charge following the college admissions scandal. >> when the news first broke it was shocking. this is something we had no knowledge of or had no idea this was all happening. anytime something like this happens it takes your breath away for a minute. winkle read also says he has undertaken an internal investigation to see the activities bled into parts of the business. reports ofncial time
gold to create a bigger oil conglomerate that wouldconglome- renault chairman leads the alliance. he believes the alliance would allow them to compete against players like volkswagen and toyota. let's dig into the state of the global market. at jpmorgan asset management fixed income portfolio manager. we've have seen a lot of movement in fixed income. today we had a german tenure auction negative for the first time since 2016. and we had the ecb talking about changing its structure around negative rates could is the move we have seen since the fed last week -- walk me through the scale of what we are seeing and what it means for portfolios at the moment? >> a couple of things at play at the moment. the first is global central banks continue to double down on their dovish bias. this started in december when
markets were selling off and then you have the meeting with the fed starting to turn dovish. that was followed through by the ecb backtracking on interest rates. the boj revising their growth and inflation forecast and then he saw other central banks around the globe, today we had the new zealand central bank coming out more dovish than expected. this is making investors worry about one central banks are seeing in the global growth backdrop that makes them worry and is driving this hunt for safer haven duration. even negative yielding boones are seeing a huge -- even negative yielding bunds are seeing a huge aspect. do you see continued dovish miss as a virtue or vicious -- dovishness as a virtue or vicious cycle? diana: until we get growth
rebounding, it is not necessarily a bad place for --kets to have central banks we will not be quick to turn on the tightening engines. we are willing to get the data much firmer before we resume tightening. that aspect is not bad for markets. i think the more dangerous, and there is a thin line, is if you start to see the search for yields leading investors to look for more riskier assets while the growth backdrop is not supported, that is when you start to worry if you see financial bubbles building up. guy: we will leave it there and carry on the conversation in a moment. diana amoa joining us from jpmorgan asset management. up next is the european close. this is bloomberg. ♪
many of europe's main markets are flat coming into the close. below the surface, there are plenty of ripples. let's show you numbers. 7185 on the ftse 100, down .1%. the focus on the sterling story is what is happening with brexit. we are seeing movement in banking stocks. commerzbank has had a solid day. the banks in europe have had a good day. there are reasons and exceptions we are talking about. the cac 40 down .1%. let's talk about the stock stories. i think they are instructive as to what is going on. the banks are definitely in focus. they are front and center. their largely the best-performing sector. there are exceptions. two ends side i have of the spectrum. commerzbank coming out like
deutsche bank and talking about better numbers going forward. swedbank at the other end of the spectrum being caught in the money laundering story. we just saw the press conference taking place between the danish and swedish prime minister. a different series of things happening. we were just talking about them. the net result is swedbank trading down 12%. european banks have had a positive day and that could be put at the door of mario draghi. he opened the door to the idea that maybe we will get to your -- get tiered negative rates injure up -- negative rates in europe like in japan and that may make profitability easier to come by. we were mentioning what was
happening in the chip sector in north america. we are also seeing weakness in chip stocks in europe. infinion updating investors on where they see the company going and the market not liking that. there is a general risk off sentiment coming into the semiconductor sector around the world. a look at what is happening with the volume picture. view, welume point of are smack on the average. as we enter the closing phases of the market today, a little ticked up in volume over the average. that is a look at the european close. vonnie: we're back to 2800 on the s&p 500. a major selloff midmorning. we are off the lows for the major indices. the s&p down .7%. semiconductors part of that story.
also optimistic stories -- one is the homebuilders. mortgage applications up more than 8%, which was a big surprise and is another knockdown effect from the lower interest rates. you can see the homebuilding index in the s&p 500 is up 3.8%. orders up 24% which was phenomenal. some knock on effect there. the 10 year yield is back up a little bit. we were as lowest 2.34. we're back at 2.38. let's see what else is going on. we have health insurers and managed-care providers moving on the centene well cared deal. the turkish lira is trading at 5.37. weaker .8%. a lot of things going wrong for the financial sector in turkey. no liquidity at the moment. polite.t is being
let's get more on the turkish story. in thehave been tumbling worst move since 2016. the real story is not stocks, the real story is in the liquidity story on the offshore side of the fed when it comes to the turkish lira. effectively, the central bank has squeezed that market try. us.a amoa joining walk me through your sense of what the turkish authorities have done. it looks like they are trying to find something short-term that is going to help the president out, but from a long-term point of view they are killing the market stone dead. diana: essentially the authorities have gone back to the classic how to manage nem crisis, which is tightening liquidity to make it impossible
to short the currency. they have done this by creating a two tiered market. you have offshore banks and local banks. there is a limit to what offshore banks can land. when offshore banks need access liquidity they only have the limited pool of capital. they do not have the huge domestic liquidity. as a result you have taken funding rates to ridiculous levels. overnight rates -- yields well above 1000% in the overnight. , since youidity cannot get a through the overnight swaps, investors are forced to sell dollar turkey and get lira that way. one, an interesting because if you look at the currency levels you would think the levels do not indicate stress, they were below where we were trading pre-fomc. to understand the dynamics you need to look at where the points are and how this is impacting
broader assets. we saw local government bonds selling off to well above 200 basis points in the single day which credit -- with credit spreads wider in turkey. there is an impact of financial assets despite the fact the focus of the authorities is much on this portrait. jason: what you do -- vonnie: what you do if you are em investor in global debt? it is not just turkey, it is a knock on effect to other countries. what you have in your basket? diana: i think turkey is a specific story. if you do cem weakening -- if you do see em weakening because of what turkey is doing, you need to look for the better stories where you can buy valuations. we have been constructive on em. we have not been in recent weeks because valuations were stressed. perhaps this turkey move will give us those interesting entry
level to engage more effectively in the markets. there are opportunities --rywhere, whether you laura whether you are looking in asia, where asian investors are , or whetherhe yield you are looking at europe where the ecb is essentially forcing european investors to look beyond the market to places like poland and hungary for markets where you can have yield. within em there are interesting stories and opportunities. there is been an ongoing debate about whether or not the negative rate structure is causing a problem with profitability and transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. the ecb seems to be opening the door to changes. give your sense of what is going on. the ecb has backtracked when it comes to tightening. it is now looking for ways to fix the banking sector. how big a ship is this and how
does this ripple to some of the markets you have described? we sawthe ecb reaction in the last few months have been a large reaction to the growth slowdown last year. when we look at our own indicators, we see a sign that perhaps there is a pickup connectivity. right now there's a disconnect between soft and hard data in europe. last time we had this was 2015, which subsequently saw a pickup in activity. pointht get to a similar where the hard data and soft data are telling us different things. because of the one we had last year we are likely to see a soft about in growth and activity. was remarking on weak growth we have seen in the past. aboutare genuine concerns what prolonged negative rates is going to do for the banking sector. authorities are looking at the case of japan to see how that has impacted the financial sector and thinking we do not want to entrench this
expectation of low rates. the need to allow banks to be able to lend and increase profitability. in an ideal world, they would be hiking rates, taking us from negative front in the rates and normalizing the back end on the other side. for now, the step back from either until we see the pickup connectivity, but i would not write them off, not this year, not while there is a much uncertainty with the global growth backdrop. i do suspect they will be looking closely. interesting to see whether they go down the road of japan of keeping commercial bank reserves out of the negative structure or even some sort of structure which would give them more time. thank you very much for stopping by to see us. asset fixedjpmorgan income portfolio asset manager. vonnie: let's to get on first word news. mark: puerto rico governor is pushing back after president
trump accused the territory of funds to pay off debt. the governor is calling the remarks below the dignity of a hasing president and indicated president trump has dodged invitations to meet with him. president trump says puerto rico received a after hurricane maria struck the island. the governor says the amount is inaccurate. european council president donald tusk says the u.k. must make a final decision on brexit by april 12. he claims all options remain on the table until then. he orders the eu not to ignore worries of british citizens who favor staying in the block. tusk spoke of the european parliament in strasbourg. >> you cannot betray the 6 million people who signed a
petition to revoke article 50. whoone million people marched for a people's vote or the increasing majority of people who want to remain in the european union. tusk added he believed the eu should remain open to a long extension if britain wishes to rethink its strategy. in eu is recalling all ships a joint mission to rescue migrants in the mediterranean sea. operation has been working to reduce migrant smuggling. the lack of naval support makes it harder to help people at sea. expedition by the the government will not allow migrants into its ports. houston's mining industry they be on the verge of a supply shortage. safety concerns are restricting traffic on the channel for a fourth day.
chemical fire that spew toxins and water profit the coast guard to step in. oilwaterway connects local refiners and chemical companies to the gulf of mexico. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much. let's check where european stocks finished. this is how the indices look. a tick higher for the london market which is finished flat. the dax unchanged. the cac 40 unchanged. both largely unchanged during the final phase of trading. if you would like to carry on listening to some of the action taking place in the financial markets, you can join the cable team at the top of the hour in the london area. dab digital radio in the london area is where you will find us and on all of your bloomberg devices.
guy: welcome back. news, lloyd'sowed of london has outlined plans to address allegations of actual harassment. this comes after a bloomberg businessweek article revealed a culture of sexual misconduct. today we talked to the ceo. this is not the lloyds i want to be part of, and not the lloyds many of my colleagues feel they want to be part of. whichr these instances occurred 10 days ago or 10 years ago, i don't care. it is not acceptable in this day and age that any woman should
not feel safe. you run through the actions we have announced. one of them is important. that is to understand through an independent cultural survey what they are doing well and what more we can do. what i'm clear on is whatever we say, we are not doing enough. we have to ensure everybody, whether it is a woman or a man should feel safe doing anything associated with the lloyds market. i'm determined that will be the case. how can you manage to convince people they will feel safe out of the lloyd's of london building. it is one thing to police behavior while people are at work but a lot of the incidence did not happen within the building itself. >> you are right because lloyds operates globally. we have been clear we will impose our own sanctions whenever a constituent company -- if anyone is found to acted
inappropriately, we will be incredibly decisive. as i said yesterday, that it could include lifetime bans. we are being as clear as we can that we will not accept any form of bad behavior. >> what sort of response have you gotten when talking about industry executives? >> what encourage me is not of the participants in our marketplace, and remember their almost 100 insurance companies operating at lloyds, every single one of the entities has lined up behind what i said yesterday without hesitation. everyone felt very disappointed to read the news and determined to stand behind the actions i've been discussing. -- mr.. neil also said no longerhe would tolerate alcohol consumption on the premise of the company and would eject anyone who was drunk. vonnie: the bloomberg equality summit is in full swing. i sat down with a commissioner gender to discuss
diversity on boards, investing in businesses led by women, and a new app. she is a partner at seneca women's. women -- some movement with the increased -- particularly focused on companies with women in leadership decisions or companies that invest in services or products that benefit women and girls. we are moving in the right direction, but it is a slow deal. vonnie: how we get more people to invest in those strategies. there are many of them now and it has been proven it makes economic sense to have more women, more diverse city in executive roles how do we put the money there? sharon: the good news is we have data that tells us you do not have to sacrifice shareholder returns to make those investments.
we know investments care about things like nonfinancial data. they care about it making investor decisions, they care about it in voting and shareholders. 43% of the shareholder proposals in last year's proxy season focused on est. -- on esg. vonnie: sometimes the argument is given show me where the women are and i will put them on the board. that is a little disingenuous. there are plenty of women out there very capable of sitting on boards. a lot of diversity. sharon: that is correct. i am happy to say that one of the initiatives we are undertaking with the new york stock exchange is to work with ceos in broadening their networks over the next generation of women to serve on boards and helping them with their corporate governance. we see companies taking actions and listening to their shareholders and to their employees and their consumers who want to see greater representation.
i think we are moving in the right direction. vonnie: tell us about seneca connect. you're a partner in this company and the ideas to connect more women in technology and companies were capital is not as readily available for women as men. sharon: we rushed seneca connect, it is an app you can download at the app store. bewas selected by apple to one of 11 women entrepreneurs to participate in the apple camp. i am happy to say we are trending well at the apple store . vonnie: we're hearing more and more women billionaires in the , glossier as well. there companies, founded by women, have become unicorns. wise venture capital not flowing in that direction? sharon: i'm disappointed by
those small numbers. i think we are shining a light on it. i think it is important when we consider the amount of wealth women have in the economy, i think it makes more sense. we have to make the case as to why -- not being good to women. bowen, partner of seneca women and on the board of the new york stock exchange and intercontinentalexchange. staying with the bloomberg equality summit, we will be speaking with the co-ceo tpg. he says the firm was shocked over the charge following the college admissions scandal. >> what we have committed to our investors is we have undertaken an investigation internally to make sure none of the things bill was engaged in was bleeding into the business. we are that to our investors and we're working on that.
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guy: time for our global battle of the charts. today we continue our special march madness tournament. jamess contestants are and taylor riggs. james, we will start with you. james: my start looks at the vix. if you look the etf world, the best way to look at the vix as we have seen $750 of inflows coming year to date. 250 million of that in the last week. that is coinciding with a 60% downtrend. it is a losing bet.
people like to be contrarian take that at. if you look at the commitment and trading data in the vix futures market, you see the data bottoms when next spikes. vix futures are topping. right now we're the lowest position ever for banks short positioning -- for vix short positioning. vonnie: i feel like i need a basketball. every time somebody says march madness my fingers get tingly. guy: taylor riggs. what have you got? taylor: it is the rotation out of bonds back to stock. the earnings yield minus the treasury yields. stocks are starting to look attractive. as you can see on the right side , we have what kind of stocks look attractive. dividend yielding stocks are in white. those are starting to see an uptick as you can see. the 10 year yield has fallen off a cliff down to 2.40 and on the bottom half of the screen is the dividend stock ratio. as investors start to pile back
in, you are starting to see an uptick. i think the theme of the day is out of bonds and back into stocks. guy: i agree. taylor riggs will be the winner. i think this freak out over the inverted curve is something the market is beginning to reconsider and the fed model provides an opportunity. vonnie: it was a tough one and for anyone who does not win be awarehe tournament, my picking skills are not very good. i am going with taylor as well. taylor: thanks. guy: we will continue tomorrow. we'll keep you up-to-date on the latest brexit developments. the 1922 committee is about to start meeting. ♪
scarlet: this is bloomberg etf iq, where we focus on the access, risk, and rewards of etf iq funds. -- of etf funds. a big shift at the big board, doug joins us to discuss a move on etf's and the foreign exchange. why -- when investing in cannabis companies is a better to be passive or active? , ipo.ady set with l