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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  March 28, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. guy: let's talk about the european space. we have the pressure on the pound, that is elevated the ftse 100. the pound is down .8%. the sense seems to be the positioning is light because you are getting all kinds of political developments and you're not getting a massive reaction in the pound. most of the market has now stepped back. you also have to step back from the turkish lira. that is for different reasons. the authorities in turkey have made it difficult for the international community to trade the turkish lira. today we have seen another leg lower, the dollar to turkish lira rate rising by 3.62%. one of the other big stories we've been covering, swedbank firing its ceo earlier on. the stock has been suspended
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throughout most of the day. it is just reopened. reopening down 8%. vonnie: heading toward the end of the month. the s&p 500 is barely holding above 2800. down fractionally today. the 10 year yield is back up to 2.39%. going in the opposite direction to gilt. tommy hilfiger doing well for tdh and a halo effect on some of the other apparel makers. nielsen holdings is the worst performer, a downgrade in credit suisse on reports from -- that neither apollo is interested in acquiring nielsen. guy: let's get back to brexit and try to get some understanding as to what is going on. pretty difficult at the moment. there is the possibility theresa may is going to try to bring her withdrawal agreement back to parliament tomorrow. in what form?
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join us to try to provide some clarity is bloomberg's emaar ross thomas. there is little smirk because i'm asking the impossible. what is going to happen tomorrow? >> we might get a vote on theresa may's brexit deal tomorrow. theresa may's brexit deal has been defeated twice. moment hasat the said the speaker i want to bring a motion tomorrow to talk about the brexit deal. you'll remember the speaker has said that if theresa may wants to bring back her vote for a third time, it has to be changed from the previous effort. it looks like there is a negotiation going on between the government and the speaker as to whether they can bring this deal back for a vote. there is some talk about there is the
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divorce deal and the agreement on the future relationship. the agreement on the future relationship is nonbinding. there is talk of splitting those off and just putting the divorce deal, which is the legally binding bit to parliament. the advantage is if they were a majority for it and if that would allow the u.k. to lock in that date of may 22 as an exit date, you will remember that from the summit, if the deal is past, then we can say the exit date is may 22. however, it is not entirely clear why they think putting the withdrawal agreement on its own to parliament will help. labor has said they are not playing and certainly some of the most toxic bits in the brexit deal are the withdrawal, the divorce. the context is trying to find a way forward and trying to find a consensus. is there a soft dish brexit -- a soft brexit in parliament?
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that debate was inconclusive. we will have more on monday of that. they are trying to sort out the divorce and get that passed, lock in may 22, and then we will sort out the future relationship later. i would not put any money on her getting that deal through tomorrow. we just moved the story now with some of the arithmetic and it looks grim. lastu remember, the dup night said we are not backing it. vonnie: the prime minister spokesperson is greeting reporters and saying there still needs to be worked on and talks have been taking place between the government and the dup. it seems like maybe that is not completely dead in the water. the motion must be approved by 5:00 p.m.. we will know by then if there'll be a vote tomorrow. we spoke earlier with an mp who said parliament does not have any way through this. there is going to be a general
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election. the general election does not seem to be an avenue to solving things either, even as far as johnson is changed his mind on the thing. emma: there is a strong argument for a general election. it was a general election that got theresa may into this pickle and perhaps a general election might be the way out. there is no guarantee the u.k. public would send back mps who thought differently. earlier -- the mp you spoke to earlier is one of the consignor balls. borise-brexit hardline -- has said he could support her deal, but there is no guarantee those figures will bring all of them with them. the reason the dup arche is not just a they provide those 10 those, but the brexit -- the reason the dup is key is not
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just because they provide those votes. the crucial thing anything the u.k. government offers the dup potentially could make the brexit hardliners cross. in order to keep northern ireland perfectly aligned with great britain in the event of the backstop being used, that ties the united kingdom closer to the eu and that is something the pre-brexit hardliners hate. we are back to this rubik's cube of the backstop. vonnie: we will continue to keep our eye open and watch the market. our thanks to bloomberg's emma ross-thomas. breaking news out of scotus. the supreme court has refused to halt the rifle bump stock ban. the ban went into effect on tuesday and two groups of challengers had file papers at the high court seeking emergency intervention to stop the ban. chief justice roberts has
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refused to halt the rifle bump stock ban. bump stocks hugely controversial gun accessory and they became infamous after the las vegas concert massacre in 2017. for now, the rifle bump stock ban is still in effect. to thet's get back brexit story and bring another voice into the discussion. jim graf joins us, state street's head of macro strategy. when you watch what happens in the markets, you see big developments and i think relatively small market moves. the pound is down a little bit today but giving the gravity of what is going on around westminster, that move looks minute. has the market got to the point where it is saying you know what, we cannot figure this out and we will sit on the sidelines. that comes from anecdotes talking to clients, talking to people in the market. it comes from price action and from what you hear.
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stocks are hard to hold in sterling. seen, you've heard anecdotes of strong demand from longer-term. that is been persistent the past few months. the question now is has impact on a bit complacent. it looked like we were heading toward softer outcome. right now there are four or five different outcomes. the only one that is unequivocally positive is revoking article 50, which will not happen. what you're left with is on the one hand this and on the other hand that for extending article 50 to have a general election were to get to some sort of customs union compromise which one fault a leadership challenge to the conservative party. that brings in brexit hardliners and jeremy corbyn as part of an election process. i think people are throwing their hands up in the risk reward for those guys were looking at the value play is not very good given a new deal
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accident is still much -- is still on the table. guy: let's work our way around all of that. the fed still talks about brexit risk and a lot of central banks still talk about this risk being out there. parliaments have consistently said there will be no deal accidents. there is an emergency handbrake, which is basically to revoke article 50. if bush really came to shove, that what happened -- if bush really -- if push really came to shove, that would happen. given parliament has said this will never happen, and it has said it twice, is the market right to still consider anything other than a left side tail risk? timothy: i think they have to because the reaction to a no deal scenario, i think, is far greater than the upside surprise you get if everything goes
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smoothly. the best place to see this is an option markets when you look at risk reversals in sterling. when you adjust for the level of volatility, you do not even have to, they are both expensive. it is getting to where it was following the referendum. even though it does not seem like there is a lot of risk being taken, there does seem to be demand for downside hedges. that is buzzing the skew to extreme levels. if this is going to play out hunky-dory, that should not be there. the option markets are focused on that. vonnie: we would get idiosyncratic emerging-market stories in a moment, but did emerging markets react well to the fed dovish tilt and what seems to be a dovish tilt by central banks around the world? timothy: fixed income markets look better than the idiosyncratic equity stories we have seen over the last couple days, particularly with turkey. turkish equities are often
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percent. the fed stone has been bypassed when it comes to the local factors. you see this in places like south africa where you have the ratings review over the weekend and i did mention the turkish elections. that is a factor. fixed income markets seem to be more resilient. returns toncy, bond go public well. worries in turkey, but on a broader basis i would say em rate market should whether this well. it is not just the fed. that most central banks are thinking about cutting rates or no longer pricing for hiking rates. chair: that the advice just spoke in part -- the fed vice chair just spoke in paris and talked about global risks. he was outside the united states. do you get the impression the federal reserve is looking more at global rest and possible impacts on emerging markets and vice versa? the circle affect?
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timothy: i think that is fair to say. they're considering financial conditions, whether domestic financial conditions by looking at equities are volatility in the u.s. market and global rest more than we appreciate. that has been a bit of a surprise relative to their language last october, when jay powell comments were we were a long way from neutral. six months later, we are talking about the fed responding to these global risk sending more dovish. it is fair to say they are paying attention to these risks. guy: tim will stick around. timothy graf staying with us on the european close. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news. here is mark crumpton. mark: the trump administration is compared to keep negotiating with china for weeks or months to reach a trade deal. speaking to reporters in washington, white house economic
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adviser told bloomberg's kevin cirilli the president wants a deal that will ensure the chinese economy improves market access and intellectual property policies for american companies. >> this is not a time driven. this is a policy enforcement driven deal. things have to be done just right. as the president has said, it has to be a great deal. mark: u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer and treasury secretary steven mnuchin arrived in beijing today for talks with chinese negotiators. republicans on the house intelligence committee are demanding chairman adam schiff resign. the california democrat says he still believes president trump's associates colluded with russia despite robert mueller's report that found no proof of that. in a letter, republicans say they have no faith in adam schiff's ability to do his job. adam schiff refused to step down. in venezuela, authorities will ration electricity to try to fix
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the nation shaky power grid. the country has been plagued by frequent blackouts, including one that begin monday in hit most of the country. president nicolas maduro blames a butyl terrorist attack -- a brutal terrorist attack by the government. critics believe it is due to poor maintenance. a fire broke out in a high-rise office building in the bangladesh capital. seven people died and dozens more were injured. firefighters were forced to shatter the buildings glass walls to free toxic gas. frequent in bangladesh because building safety regulations are often ignored. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thanks. let's get a quick check on u.s. markets. we started out the day in the green but we have been dropping ever since. industriesall major
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-- all major indices down .2%. for rise in driving on the dow and s&p. homebuilders giving back yesterday's gains. between 2.5% and 3.5% after pending home sales disappointed today. nielsen holdings down more than 10%. credit suisse down grading the company after a story in the new york post that neither blackstone or apollo are interested in acquiring nielsen. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. " on is "the european close
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bloomberg markets. abigail: we are seeing a reversal for stocks. the s&p and 500 and nasdaq the s&p 500 and now stock -- the s&p 500 and nasdaq now down. the stoxx 600 has reversed lower from gains. andu.s. dragging on europe oil and other risk asset, down 1% or a second day in a row. afterr down more than 2% president trump urged opec to increase the supply of oil. leading the decline in the u.s., the chip sector. let's take a look at the stock. at the highs, up more than 1%. now down .7% over last days. now down more than 2%. this is a leading sector so bearish. as to what is dragging on the stoxx 600, let's take a look at the big movers. mlso wrong down 14 for -- osera down 14%.
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worst day since january 2018. swedbank down 7% since the ceo is fired amid the money laundering scandal. finally, let's look at an s&p 500 chart, the one-year chart we have looked at before. it is a trading range using moving average. very reliable to the upside and downside. the most recent touch to the upside suggesting we could see this area congestion drop to the bottom. it is below 2785, most likely 2750 on the s&p 500. guy: thank you very much. breaking news. just getting in under the wire. the theresa may government in london has said it will plan a vote on friday on the withdrawal agreement only. twoesa may's exit plan has bits. the bulk of it is the withdrawal agreement.
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and then you have the political narrative that follows that, the political declaration. two bits. the speaker has made it hard for theresa may to bring her deal back. this changes it significantly enough she will be able to do it. it may not change the arithmetic around getting across the line with dup and significant parts of the drg, the -- the hard brexit talk is against it. we may end up with a situation where the tory party, the government is hoping it can strip some of the labor party votes away from jeremy corbyn and get it to support the withdrawal agreement, which is all the eu has asked for in order to secure the short extension. very convoluted, incredibly confusing. it boils down to the fact will get another vote tomorrow, probably by around 2:00 on part of theresa may's deal. the other piece of news is going
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has lost -- is going has lost -- boeing has lost its wto case. this mirrors the case airbus lost and probably pushes both companies toward some sort of negotiated settlement. -- back tock down flat right now. another vote tomorrow on the withdrawal agreement. a political declaration could still change after the vote. we still have timothy graf with us. we will get another vote tomorrow. let's shift landscape. turkey is having its problems. a lot of liquidity problems. how do you see this playing out? timothy: it is as clear as brexit, unfortunately. it is difficult to know with local elections coming up and how everyone performs or how his party performs and whether he is
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still well supported. it is not a market i think is worth touching right now. it is difficult to short and the currency, given how expensive that has become. if you decide to take the other view and have a long view, as you see today you can ever 3% move going against you quickly. 3% plus in fact. it is one of the situation such as brexit or the u.s. china tops where it is as clear as mud and somewhere like turkey it is better to stay away. guy: why is volatility so low again -- across all asset classes? timothy: it does not make much sense to me. fast tightening from the fed implies higher volatility. i suspect, if i had to come up with the reason, it is that central banks have used forward guidance so much over the last few years they are able to compress rate expectations in aggregate so well, and they have been effective. since october, about 27 central
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, 27s, not including turkey major central banks had 1400 basis points of hikes priced in. that has flipped. we have about 200 basis points of cuts. that is how quickly things have changed and that is served to compress volatility in the notion that we are no longer going to move toward normalization. we will no longer be in this world where volatility might be allowed to rise. ,s we talked about with the fed they're responding to financial conditions and trying to compress volatility. graph --graph -- tim timothy graf joining us from state street. coming up, we count you down to the european market close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: looking at u.s. markets as we get to the halfway point. lower by .2% for the major indices. for eisen, homebuilders, all of it lower. nielsen off a cliff.
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stronger thanks to sterling which is .8% lower and yields are up but still the tenure is at 2.39%. -- the 10 year is at 2.39%. guy: the pound is in focus. we have had the announcement related to the possible vote tomorrow and it looks like we are potentially going to see a withdrawal agreement being voted on tomorrow. the pound has come under pressure as a result of that. the ftse 100 outperforming its european peers. the european markets are about to end. we will give you the final numbers in just a moment. ♪ so with xfinity mobile
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do you guys sell other dogs? now that's simple, easy, awesome. customize each line by paying for data by the gig or get unlimited. and now get $250 back when you buy a new samsung galaxy. click, call, or visit a store today. guy: 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading in europe. a quiet markets and a headline
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level. france finishing flat. the german market is as well. london is little bit of an outperform are but that largely to do with what it been happening with sterling which has taken something of a debt. not a massive dip compared with the political story we are seeing develop in westminster. the ftse 100 outperforming. dax flat today. we'll talk about what is going on with deutsche bank. the banking story has been the narrative worth focusing on in europe. the cac 40 down .1%. let's show you individual names. we've been keeping a careful eye on the banking sector. deutsche bank trading lower. there was a financial times story earlier on suggesting this is an institution looking to raise equity around 10 billion euros to fund the commerzbank story. bloomberg reporting suggests there has been no board discussion. deutsche bank under pressure,
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trading down 3.5%. swedbank has spent most of the day suspended. the institution firing its ceo. what that will change, we will find out. changing of management does have an effect when it comes to the regulatory story and how regulators perceive what is going on. trading down by nearly 8%. is crackingering run. the stocks up today. volume quite light. we are coming into coarser end. coarser end a massive event for markets. today a little light on the volume. maybe some of the windowdressing has taken place. vonnie: here in the u.s. we are holding on with just our fingernails to the 28 hundred mark on the s&p 5 -- to the 2800 mark on the s&p 500.
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well,ectors doing including apparel and accessories. tommy hilfiger doing well. lululemon and other out performers. the commodity index down .7%. trade jitters as conversations continue between china and the u.s.. the 10 year yield up to 3.9%. tomorrow might be a big day for yields. let's get to global macro movers. are higherse yields with bonds dropping in some of those markets like turkey. 193 basis points. indonesian central bank mentioned turkey and said it would intervene for its currency if it needed to. the index, some of its component parts are all lower. guy: let's turn back to the banking story in europe. ceoen's bank has fired its
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as the money scandal engulfing swedbank spirals out of control. joining us is bloomberg managing editor for finance. do inoes dropping the ceo terms of this narrative? >> it clears the slate considerably in terms of future negotiations, even with regulators or with shareholders. the company has lost the confidence of some of its major shareholders. it is an opportunity for recent moment for any company going through a crisis to show they are taking some sort of a scandal seriously and they are engaged fully in getting to the bottom of the issue. in a sense it gives the company an opportunity to have a fresh start. vonnie: you have to smile when you see they put the coo as active ceo.
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if anybody should have known what was going on, it is the coo, no? >> one has to remember that the current ceo came in 2016 and led the baltics region for a good part of the previous part of her career. one also has to take that into consideration. area where were the a majority of the money laundering float through. it is an area where they want to show that they are trying to make a clean break. the extent they are trying to do that, it is also in a saturn situation where a ceo -- a sudden situation where ceo goes like this, they have to have the next qualified person who is rate to step up and take charge of the company.
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guy: is it spinning out of control? investors have lost confidence in the institution and there has been damming criticism out of the swedish government. >> this is one thing we will be watching closely. this has all the hallmarks of the situation that can still get worse and worse for the bank. how they handle the next phase of the investigation and what other skeletons are in the closet would bp in terms -- would be key in terms of containing any further damage or getting it to spin out of control. about other banks, we are hearing jpmorgan is planning a wave of job cuts and apparently automation and new technology are partially to blame. tell us more about this. is really automation finally
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coming for the jobs? ofthis is the fourth quarter 2018 was a brutal quarter. you have heard warnings from the likes of ubs that the first quarter of this year is already shaping up, if i recall correctly, the words they used was one of the worst first quarter trading environments in recent memory. you take all of that together and here we are, after bonus season, this seems like an inevitability when it comes to rationalizing the sizes of their workforce. this is an industry under extreme pressure. the trading environment has not helped. guy: i'm trying to find out what the price-to-book is for db case at the moment. .24. what it make sense given that to raise equity by commerzbank. there was a story they were
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going to raise 10 billion euros. >> you are also aware subsequently deutsche bank did put out a statement saying the management board is not currently engaged in any kind of conversations about capital rate. if all of the analyst they have spoken to, they do see there might be a need for some sort of the capital raise. however, that is not a done deal. everyone has to remember their assets sale that deutsche bank could do. there are asset sales that commerzbank could do. them, the asset management unit of deutsche bank is one such unit that has the interest among investors. there are many paths and it is early and deutsche bank has said it is early. -- theth it is early truth is it is early in determining the exact price. there are so many complexities.
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to put a price on that at this point is difficult. my guess is the banks are engaged in this exercise as we speak and that will be the stickiest part of the negotiations. vonnie: every time there's a story like this, management has come out and said actually not. we are not involved in this. you have to wonder where the providence of the story is. stocks down 3.5% today. at some point is it better for one of the banks to do something than to continually come out? sree: they did come out. it was the weekend of march 15 they came out and said the merger talks are underway. weeks intoeven two those conversations. when you look at the size of the banks, the complexity of the deals to be done, they of loan books. ,his is one of the things
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bloomberg had a story yesterday about the complexity of commerzbank loan book that deutsche bank is reportedly looking at and assessing at this point. you have italian bonds that are on commerzbank's books, and there are other issues. when it comes to evaluating two large banks, two weeks is not the kind of time one would think of as a sufficient amount of time. guy: a little bit of d&d still to do. thank you very much indeed. vonnie: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here is mark crumpton. mark: the u.s. supreme court will not stop the trump administration roman forcing its ban on bump stock devices, which allow semiotic -- semi automatic devices to fire like machine guns. gun rightscourts --
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groups had asked the court to stop the government from enforcing it. the president announced the government would move to ban the devices after the 2017 las vegas shooting were they were used. 58 people were killed and hundreds were injured at the shooting in an outdoor concert. a justice department official says robert mueller's russia report is more than 300 pages long. william barr released a four page summary of the report on sunday and is expected to release a public version of the document in the coming weeks. russia is calling on the u.s. to public the full report, saying it is the best way to clear up allegations of russian meddling in the 2016 u.s. presidential election. in somalia, at least 11 people are dead after a car bomb explosion in the capital. authorities say the blast occurred outside a hotel. no one immediately claimed responsibility. the area is a regular target for the al qaeda linked military group which has waged an insurgency against the
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government since 2006. the blast is the fifth to hit mogadishu in the past days. benjamin netanyahu says he is prepared to take further military action in the gaza strip, but only as a last resort. the prime minister made those comments today as egyptian mediators trying to broker and expanded cease-fire between israel and dollars is -- and gaza's hamas rulers. the fighting has intensified in recent weeks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. back to you in london. guy: thank you very much. it is remarkable, given what is going on around the world, how stable equity markets appear for the end of the quarter today. the dax and the cac 40 barely budging from the flat line. the auction process revealing very little in terms of the ftse
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100, barely budging. finishing higher today. the found finishing lower. has not finished yet. keeps going. you can tune into the table. -- into the cable. bloomberg radio show taking to the airwaves at the top of the hour. we will carry on the coverage of what is happening with brexit. you can find is on dab digital radio in the london area and all your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. guy: earlier this week mario draghi got the markets excited
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about a possible change to the central bank approach to negative rates. many in the market lamed this policy for poor bank profitability. we have just been talking about deutsche bank. the outgoing ecb chief economist is not so fast. he indicated their needs to be a solid monetary case for changing the current -- indicated there needs to be a solid monetary case for changing the current structure. >> basically, our policy has not changed. guidancehe forward which says the rates are going to stay at the present level until the end of the year. the recent increase of bund prices, where the rates fell to zero or negative rates reflects concerns in the market. they reflect concerns about the economy in general. it is an indication of
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uncertainties in the market. >> are you particularly concerned about germany? >> i am not particularly concerned about germany. balance sheets in general of households and of the state are in good shape. i think this is a country that can absorb a number of shocks. on the other side, the german economy is depending on manufacturing. we know manufacturing has been hit by the international uncertainty related to protectionism and also the slowdown in china and also the u.k.. one has to say the u.k. has been invisible through investments. germany is a big exporter of investment goods. bymany has been hit today the brexit related uncertainties. i think the country is resilient. on the other hand, there are exposed to many factors. i think they can go through, but
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it is a more delicate phase in the business cycle for them. >> talk to me about risks. there is china, there is trade. you mentioned brexit. what is your biggest concern? >> the concerns in general are of political nature. charactere persistent of these uncertainties and you listed number of uncertainties are waiting on economic sentiment and business sentiment in general. it is only for the positions of these uncertainties at some point have real effects. for a time businesses continue their investment plan and it is business as usual. at some point it hits confidence. it is about time we reduce this uncertainty, political uncertainty. >> look and the ecb due to do that? peter: we have a mandate which is price stability. we use the instruments we think
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are the best to recharge active. it is only limited. you get fundamental uncertainties related to the trade regime and the brexit related problems. the central bank cannot do much about this. >> you have anything specific in mind? brexitit is time this ends, and i hope in a satisfactory an orderly way. that would restore confidence quickly if you do it in an orderly way. sends verys -- negative signals for everybody. to say how is it possible to have so much uncertainty lasting so long about an issue? that is one example. there are other examples in the trades fear. -- in the trade sphere.
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it would be good for confidence of the trade negotiations between u.s. china end in a satisfactory way. we have uncertainties about the trade regime in the u.s.. these uncertainties test confidence. that is the worry. guy: the outgoing ecb chief economist talking about a range of issues. it will be interesting to see which way the ecb goes next. vonnie: time for our stock of the hour. shares of lululemon soaring to electorate after the company reported first-quarter earnings that beat estimates. lululemon's forecast eased concerns about decelerating sales. joining us for more is taylor riggs. taylor: holding up near a record. analysts are calling it a blowout quarter. if you come into my terminal, it is all about those key sales. in this quarter growth -- like you said, it was a full-year
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forecast going forward. they expect increased by single digits to low double-digit percent. said thatysts forecast ballots what's conservative and they're expecting a lot of upside given the momentum we have seen in the start of the year. as you know, another big thing is e-commerce. we have a chart showing the e-commerce sales. those were up 46% last year and now have 26% penetration rate. good news. saidson analyst investments in their online channel are paying off and an advisory group has talked a lot about the direct to -- the direct to consumer marketing channels that have started to pay off that is but a strong area of growth. analysts are calling in a flawless set of numbers and execution. where are the opportunities? taylor: it is in the men's market. goldman sachs, jpmorgan, they
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have eased their dress codes over the years. the ceo at lululemon saying becoming a dual gender brand and growing out into that market will be a key area of focus, trying to capitalize on the work leisure athletic here. if you think you'll be wearing that instead of a suit. vonnie: i am thinking a pair of yoga pants. what are you thinking? guy is not in agreement. meanwhile i'm frantically looking through the merchandise. coming up, we continue our march madness battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: it is time for our
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global battle of the charts and today we continue our special march madness tournament. if you're not doing well in your bracket, maybe you are to switch reckitt -- switch bracket and start picking out some of our battlers. we begin with jessica summers. jessica: we have seeing volatility in games, especially the duke game, but in the oil market not so much volatility. volatility has slipped lower since the start of the year. at the same time, wti has rallied more than 30%, remaining in this upturn channel. we had 60 but we can't manage to stay above it? what will it take. it will take volatility to remain lower and opec to continue cutting production. vonnie: that was great. i love it. jessica, who are your picks for the tournament? jessica: houston. i grew up in houston. vonnie: let's turn to tom. great.
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what interests me in the etf world is rates. the income trade. rates have been coming down. this month is the biggest monthly info for rates we've ever seen. why think this is interesting, and i call this the counterpunch. if we were wind, it was the worst outflow we saw. as rates have come back down, the thirst for yield is still strong. for someone wrapping -- tracking rate flows, is a good predictor of top rates. you see the massive outflows here, here, and here. with this massive inflow, kobe interesting to see if that is the bottom in rates. vonnie: that was phenomenal, but my winter today for getting extra credit for putting basketball jargon into her presentation is jessica summers. i feel there's transatlantic tension but i have learned over the years that i should probably go with vonnie. over the last six months good i
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will side with vonnie to make life easier. the control room have got exactly the same view. bonnie, jessica summers is our winner. vonnie: thank you. jessica, you are the winner, and tom, our thoughts are with you but you will get another chance next time around. check in u.s. markets, a decline as we head toward midday. do not forget tomorrow is month end. we have indices up a 10th of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: the next financial crisis -- climate change. the climate change effects in the power to disrupt the economy. i speak about what one company is doing to compare. houston, we have a problem. refiners on the u.s. gulf coast should be running out of oil. the aftermath of the worst regional chemical disaster in 14 years, and oils crude reality. a technicalhas problem, the parent-child dilemma. ♪ alix:

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