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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 29, 2019 4:00am-7:00am EDT

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of course, the narrative we have been paying attention to is 10 year yields, seeing some stabilization. under 2.4, the lowest level since december 2017. a lot of hedging going on. with our just going to get the markets starting to open, and keep in mind, it is the end of the quarter. whether or not we see quarter rebalancing impacting markets tends not to happen on the last day of the quarter. that is because traders will hedge doing windowdressing, and that is why we're seeing them unchanged. the ibex is higher by .5%. retailers will be a big story today, h&m announcing earnings that they will see retailers in the section. cac also higher, the same risk on tone we saw in asia. we are seeing anything close to that in europe, but this is the
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best quarter for european equities since 2015. let's go ahead and look at the sectors. not surprisingly, a lot of green when it comes to sectors. health care is the only one down lower. we did get some news from astrazeneca that could be moving health care. commodities doing very well today, a lot of that having to do with the risk on tone. iron or charting higher, helping energy out a lot. weakness in telecom, the worst-performing sectors year to date. perhaps we are just continuing that trade, with traders not wanting to take on that exposure. cyclicals, defenses, all doing well. let's look at some individual companies. we are looking at 418 shares moving higher versus 31 lower. glencore, bhp, those miners doing very well, rio tinto as
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well. a little bit of tech in there as well. prudential, a very wide breadth of companies. to the downside, unsurprisingly, we will see astrazeneca as one of the worst performers, spending $6.9 billion in a new japanese cancer therapy deal. dragging some other health care stocks down with them. ryanair is going lower, we heard downgrading. anna: thanks very much. ofting you to the start european equities, european markets opening higher. in hopes they can meet they can meet the cliff edge brexit.
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here's what politicians and business leaders have say about the situation. >> parliament candidate as many options as they like, but they have got to start taking some choices. >> there are quite a lot of people who are quite hard brexiteers who share our view that we have to get this out of the way. >> we have seen no evidence that elected leaders are ready to do that. >> what is clear is that parliament is in gridlock. view is against a messy and disorderly exit. >> i think technology and democracy are bigger issues for the economy. we have to create an environment which allows people to step up and invest. , much oferesting views it coming from the bcc conference yesterday in westminster. it is interesting that some ,iews overlap, in some areas
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but they don't all worry to the same degree. interest coming from the uk's national trade secretary liam fox say the government have to set up a new approach if they lose about, it seems they're still trying to thomase drp for support saying that losing the vote would mean a longer extension. ,ay has said she will stay on so perhaps the message is that if you block this, you might not get may leaving as soon as you thought, such a strange state of affairs. let's get some market analysis. chief investment strategist at lombard joins us now. as he watched the twists and turns, as my colleague earlier on pointed on, the pound has not done all that much. are you concerned about complacency for an accidental,
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no deal brexit? >> good morning. , because i concerned think the probability of a no deal has fallen. there is a chance of an accidental no deal coming through because parliament cannot agree on any option. , iever, having said that think the deadlines can be changed in the market has embraced affect that, ultimately, this is a legal issue the deadlines which keep .oming there is a strong chance the deadlines will move again and it is creating this safety valve for the markets when it comes to the tail risk of an accident the brexit -- accidental brexit. anna: in terms of the underlying confidencensumer about the index bumps along at a
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low level. it shows a decreased willingness to make major purchases. for how long do you think brexit remains front and center for consumers? do think it could gradually drop off the radar? perhaps even for businesses who have to decide to think about other things at some point. salman: i think there is brexit fatigue all over. [laughter] we sense that in the markets, and of course, given the dominance of the topic in the news. that this is grows a pure legal issue and the paralysis means that some resolution will come through, i think both business and market uncertainty can fall. something, going back to this assessment this is becoming a logistical and legal issue, rather than something
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disastrous. that goes to the fact that they no deal scenarios are starting out, butt only priced expected out by the markets. anna: that is interesting, this is more logistical and legal, rather than how it started? what implication does that have for u.k. assets? do investors get to look through brexit at some point and not be myopically focused? salman: on our end, we are starting to look through brexit because, obviously, these twists and turns mean the deadlines keep shifting. we have to embrace this new paradigm that, at the end of the day, are shifting deadlines and can go through a slow process. we have to focus on what matters
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for the economy and the cyclical situation of the u.k. economy. that means the impact of global events becomes more and more important for the u.k. and valuations, which are attractive , if you think brexit is going towards a slow death going forward. anna: thank you very much. ahmed stays with us. interesting stories out there from aviation to the drugs stories. h&m is surging after beating first-quarter estimates, breathing a sigh of relief. we will have more on this shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european open. we are 11 minutes into the trading day. live in westminster as we track politics. a nice balance, the tone set in asia. andets are bouncing continuing that in the last trading day of the first quarter. let's not talk too much about fourth quarter of last year. dup'sline on brexit, the wilson confirming lawmakers will oppose maze deal.
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-- may's deal. calls for tobacco to back the deal seem to have fallen on deaf for her to back the deal seem to have fallen on deaf ears. >> look at how much these different shares are moving. h&m moving to the upside, more than 13%, earnings today exciting the market. q1 beating estimates. they had fewer discounts which allowed them to grow this quarter. dislike this shift to online, which has been a perennial problem. a big move to the downside, they have had to cut because of groundings at boeing. they said this could crimp earnings as much as 200 million euros. altice another big mover to the upside, trading at its highest price for the year. analysts saying that these earnings look good.
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they had a big growth coming from their french revenue. however, fourth quarter a little bit weak, but the outlook here is what is getting the market excited, and. -- anna. anna: thanks. one of the things equity markets have traded higher on has been around optimism on trade. this week's china trade talks have concluded and steven mnuchin of the united states says they have been constructive. but in washington, larry kudlow is warning a final trade agreement could still be months away. the chief investment strategist at lombard is still with us. just like brexit, another story that has lingered longer than we thought it would. interesting from larry kudlow that this might still take months to resolve. do you have any thoughts on how the markets are managing to look through this in the same way we talked about looking through
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brexit? our expectations in the strait talks is that, given the issues are so deep and wide ranging, it was always going to take time for an agreement. it is important to understand the political and economic backdrop, both in the u.s. and china. for the u.s., the ideal time to do the deal is in september. that is where the bank for your buck is highest for -- from a presidential election point of view. having a deal done in march is a bit too soon. from china's perspective, it makes sense to discuss these topics in detail, because they are going through a deleveraging importantnd it is they put everything on the table as they attempt to reduce the rates, something that will take time. we are, of course,
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tracking the impact these tensions and tariffs have, and europe is not unscathed by any means. you mentioned in your notes that shoots fore green the eurozone economy. explain. salman: on the hard data, we are seeing some green shoots. --ecially in the auto sector as the auto sector is beginning to resolve. the bounceback is not strong by any standards. we are also looking at the derivatives of the changes. the rate of decline has reduced and the second or third point i would mention is that there has been a significant easing of financial conditions in europe. yields are nowd negative and will start to support the economy a little bit. we are not expecting blockbuster
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bounces back, but there are some light, green shoots coming through. chiefthank you very much, investment strategist at lombard us.an ahmed stays with despite global scrutiny, they bounceback. we spoke exclusively to one of the company's rotating chairman. >> i noticed the oversights nightwas reported last and there are some things i would like to point out. the first one, there is not a single backdoor installed by any country. u.k. cyber security situation has not worsened. i would like to say that we have the best cybersecurity record over the last 30 years, including in recent years, when there were malicious cyberattacks. we understand many global firms pay attention to cybersecurity
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and have raised their standards. they're looking for reliable results as well as reliable profits. we are voluntarily making our cybersecurity more trustworthy as well. we have established a project and decided to invest 2 billion u.s. dollars to make the process trustworthy. >> there is a widely held view that australia and canada are facing retaliation from china for aligning with the u.s. when it comes to the case of huawei. do you think those retaliatory actions are beneficial or undermining your case? >> i am not the chinese government, nor am i part of any other government, so i cannot comment on their positions. i provide the best products and services and we hope we can provide value. our strategy is to help clients achieve more success and to help countries that choose us. that is our priority. >> the u.s.-china trade talks
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are restarting in beijing this week. do you think the case of quality -- of huawei is coming up and president trump intervenes, would you welcome that? >> i have read this in various media, but have no further information regarding this. >> it seems like a key at the central part of this controversy comes down to trust. there is a question as to whether founders of the company, if they are members of the congress party and have signed -- oathn the of -- both that they would turn around to leaders in the party and say i'm prepared to break my host -- my oath, even if leaders are saying this is in the national security interest to be able to get
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access to your systems, data, or at least the possibility to spy on other nations. is that a realistic proposal? >> from the perspective of the government and huawei it is rare to have a company like us that can globally compete. the government hopes we can create income and jobs, in particular for industry professionals. if you take inappropriate actions, like the u.s. or australia, those actions compromise the chinese government plans. we have over 90,000 employees, shareholders, any bad actions would damage employee shareholders and go against interest. we would never do that, to go against basic business principles. >> a strong set of earnings for the year, up around 25%. what are your projections for this year and what are the biggest potential headwinds? is that the u.s. campaign or the
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chinese economic slowdown? , wehen it comes to 20 i.t. are optimistic we will hit double-digit growth despite uncertainties in the external environment. where cautiously optimistic and the future of the telecom industry lies of the opportunities that 5g can provide. guo ping, one of always three rotating chairman speaking to bloomberg's tom mackenzie about where duties to the party and business conflict. if you were long tech stocks and high-yield bonds in 2019, you'll be feeling pretty happy. as the first quarter comes to an end, we look at what lies ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european open on bloomberg television and live on the radio. 24 minutes into the trading day, a decent announced on european equities and the quarter in style. stocks rally as the first quarter comes to a close, but nearly everything rallied in tandem, following a bruising december. the fed is a dovish pivoting has extended the credit cycle and the month has been rocked by the flight to sovereign bonds, so where should investors be looking for gains?
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the chief investment strategist at lombard psalm on -- salman ahmed is still with us. doubling downe from the fed going to support or underpin gains in the second quarter? salman: it was the most critical development of the quarter from december from web chairman powell said the balance sheet is on autopilot -- fed chairman powell said the balance sheet is on autopilot. it is the most significant thing they have done outside of recession years. my view is that this pivot is structural and a representation of the change in the reaction function. it means that for a given level of unemployment rate and inflation, the fed policy will be dovish. where at a crossroad in this will extend the business cycle. some say this increases the how
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the of a recession and i totally disagree. in my view, this is a way to extend the business cycle by reducing the risk of accidental tightening, which should support risky assets as they go along. anna: it should support risky assets. which assets with it that? -- within that? which assets will outperform, this is our markets live question of the day. salman: i am positive on emerging-market assets. there has been some risk that is come back in some markets like turkey and brazil, which we think will stabilize. there is a valuation support which markets still enjoy. and i think china will remain supported it has the potential to keep outperforming going forward. secondly, as we're looking at european equities very carefully , because they have valuation
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as these green shoots start to stabilize the dovishness we've seen across the board should be supported as well. that is pro-equities, and in bond markets, we have become neutral. i think that rates should stabilize at these lower levels, which have been introduced after the dovishness we have seen. much for yourery time this morning. ahmed, chief investment strategist at lombard. theresa may is hoping it will be third time lucky, but a lack of support from the dup could mean another failure. will brexit have to be delayed again? of course, she brings her vote in part to the house today, getting a chance to vote on the withdrawal agreement only, setting a crucial parts but not say much about the future
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relationship. we talk more about what this means, about the vote, and about what happens if it doesn't get through, because it certainly looks tricky without dup support. this is bloomberg. ♪
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your 30 minutes into trading day, welcome back to the european market open. theresance saloon -- may puts her brexit deal to exert vote in a bid to avoid along the way. ground.p lost it indexes still lack last year's highs. and astrazeneca's deal of the decade.
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anpays $7 million to form oncology joint venture. the stock falls as much as 5%. to bloomberg markets, the european open live on bloomberg tv. i'm anna edwards, live in westminster. the political beating heart of the u.k.. in 2017, theay u.k. government triggered article 50, starting the clock on a two-year process to leave the eu. may: today, the government tax on the democratic will of the british people. and it acts on the clear and convincing position of this house. a few minutes ago in brussels, the united kingdom's permanent handedntative to the eu a letter to the president of the european council on my behalf, confirming the government's decision to invoke article 50 on
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the treaty of the european union. anna: that was theresa may two years ago. of course, things did not pan out the way theresa may had expected. the prime minister still battling to get her withdrawal agreement through parliament, putting it to a third vote today despite not having support from many of her own lawmakers. it is just part of her deal. take a look at british assets over the last two years. sterling up by more than 4.5%. that after a big fall between the vote in 2016 and the triggering of article 50. the 10 year yields down to just below 1%. the global trend toward lower yields seems dominant there. and the link between the ftse and the pound of interest.
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we talk about the way forward, stephanie. perhaps learning a few lessons over the last few years. the base case to the extent it's possible to have one, does that mean extension? extension will be inevitable. the dup saying they won't vote for it. labor won't vote for it. conservative mps won't vote for it. the absence of significant change, i think realistically, we're going to see on monday, going to indicative votes. the big risk that we need to is that all of this political infighting triggers a general election which i don't think investors are ready for. anna: if it hones in on something like a softer union,
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does that mean that the conservative party would trigger a general election because it wasn't in their manifesto? others in the party say there is no need for that. >> it is high risk, particularly. large share, but not a majority votes earlier this week but the risk next week is that the customs he not being anyone's favorite. you end up with someone more like a common market. not just the kind of hard-line is why you gohat to a 25% chance. talk about the latest polling. if the general election is part , lots ofth forward
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people thought that theresa may was going to easily fight off the opposition from jeremy corbyn. she remained as prime minister but lost the majority. >> the polls tend to favor the conservatives but it is not a million miles away. is it is a reality crucial lesson for policymakers. they are not like the polls at the end of the campaign. thing for investors, what is the context for this general election? is it that conservatives cannot agree and have a massive fracture. that environment is difficult for the party to do well. we have some normalcy around a tory leadership challenge. time.ings take
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do we find it possible to see anything other than a leading brexiteer at the helm of the conservative party given the makeup of the party membership? conservative leadership race, you need a leader nominated from within parliament and you need to go to membership. however, i think what happens is the parliamentary process tends to favor more moderates. they have to be at least pre-brexit. you go to the membership and they tend to be more hard-line on brexit. is a lot of talk about the hard-line brexiteers or the high-profile brexiteers. in they have struggled parliament with those that they have not managed to get on board. stephanie, think you for
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joining us. let's get a european perspective on brexit now. 's germans from berlin minister for justice and consumer protection. joining us.r i apologize for some of the background noise you might hear from the noisy westminster. let me ask you about brexit. if the government asks for another extension before april delay canind of europe consider? it depends on what the proposal would look like because negotiations for more than two years now. we have seen delays being moved forward. and we still don't have a clue
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how this is going to and up. i think it depends very much on the proposal itself. if the government knows where it wants to go. as soon as we know were the government wants to go, we can adjust the delay to the process. anna: this was supposed to be as you probably remember. it did not turn out to be that way. any people looking back on the last couple of years with that in mind. if you were to describe your emotions about brexit right now, do you feel relief it has not happened? is their frustration in germany with the length of the process? >> my perspective is a bit special because i have a british father and a british citizenship. so for me, the process is very emotional.
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hurts that the united kingdom is going to leave the european union. if this is the will of the people, we accept that, of course. it is more a sentiment of astonishment, i would say. we don't really understand what is happening because there have been votes on every possible solution now. and every time, the answer is no. what is the way you want to go? question you would answer with yes concerning the parliament and government? anna: it does seem difficult to find one solution that the executive in parliament would come behind. around the european elections,
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you are the lead candidate in the european elections. germane risk to the stability coalition if the spd does badly in the forthcoming european elections? are the questions around the coalition? >> i am very much pro-european. the polls for the european election are considerably better than for the national ones and we intend to do well. you intend to do well, but could there be risk to the coalition? a -- no point in discussing this point because we are two months ahead. the polls are getting better and better. and this coalition is very , so i don't see any kind
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of danger coming up. anna: ok. is pushing for a financial transaction tax. it europe has an pushing for this and britain is trying to leave the european union. city of london with it. is it the wrong time to talk about a transaction tax? >> about the financial transaction tax, there have been talks for more than five years, at least. now it is at least coming to an end because we need an important number of member states to join it so that it makes sense. that have 10 member states are willing to start this process. it is about time that we move forward there.
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anna: and you talked about a common corporate tax base. that would be contentious in a place such as ireland. can europe find common ground on corporate tax? this is not something that only takes place in europe. it is an ocd matter. so we're very much optimistic as in the u.s. that we have already base for economy taxes in place. the high probability that a lot of european states can agree on, make an end to the race to the very bottom which is a problem for a lot of member states, germany included. i want to ask you about
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weapons sales to saudi arabia. government has extended its embargo on weapons sales to saudi arabia. are you disappointed about some of the exemptions and the length of the extension? >> social democrats are quite clear. we have managed to fix that in the coalition treaty. we are not willing to export weapons to regions where there is more. believe it is something that adds to a peace process. this is the decision we have taken as a party and the position we are taking within the coalition. there are not many supporters on also internationally which i regret. this is a matter of responsibility to people that
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live in these regions that we don't support the war that is going on there. using the cdu has given in to pressure to other european countries because or is this exemption for joint export projects? >> it is a problem that we have joint export projects but we do not have common standards on this. the ideas that other countries are different than ours, we should move on to have common standards, of course. that would make it easier to find decisions in all of these cases. it is a fact that the conservatives have a different position on this. but we strongly believe it is not in the interest, either of the people in the region north of the global interest to
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deliver weapons to this region where there is a war going on. anna: think you for joining us, german minister for justice and consumer protection. china numbers coming through, fully a net income of 180 billion yuan. the estimation was 179 billion. growth coming at 4.45%. up next, we will get to one of our big movers of the morning. asterisk a, the drugmaker, has struck a $7 billion deal, the biggest in more than a decade -- astrazeneca, the drugmaker, has struck a $7 billion deal, the biggest in more than a decade. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european market open. a positive session for european a code in markets. on thequities bouncing last trading day of the quarter, finishing off what has been a fairly strong quarter. astrazeneca just struck its biggest deal in more than a decade. the pharma giant has agreed to pay $6.9 billion to buy into a promising cancer treatment with partapanese drugmaker as
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of a push to become a global oncology powerhouse. eric joins us from the bloomberg health care team. ?hat is driving this huge deal the opportunities in oncology, i suppose. >> there is a big opportunity in oncology. smithkline, the european rival in the u.k. there's a lot of hot new so the need to do new ways of developing them. there is a race to get these under your roof. thank you very much, eric. from the verdict of the markets is a little negative at the moment. the stock starting the trading day in negative territory.
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next, tobias ellwood, we will get his thoughts on brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european open live on bloomberg tv. and bloomberg radio this morning. a decent session underway for
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european equities. let's get some reflections on brexit from a conservative mp. tobias joins us. that has votedy before for the deal, for theresa may's deal. do you really think she can win today? >> nobody is going to get the perfect brexit. ideas the other day gathered momentum. if you are not going to get what you want, take a step forward and have that compromise. anna: appealing to the right of the party, is it a bit late? unionft sees a customs type option on the agenda if the indicative of process moves forward. >> lots of people have separate agendas.
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britain, social leadership -- show some leadership. how many in the labour party will vote for this? they can't let a blind brexit and you can understand with a tory leadership challenge underway, and a know if they will be voting for a boris johnson brexit or any other kind of brexit. >> you touched on so many variables. whoever is leader of the conservative party post theresa may still have to go through parliament itself. parliament needs to recognize the sweet spot that we can all rally around and get through. today is only about the withdrawal agreement. we have the divorce settlement. it has been split is that at 11:00 tonight, the eu stipulated, what is going on
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with the withdrawal agreement. it is departure day. regardless of whether we see this past today, if brexit ends up looking a little bit softer in its future relationship, do we need to have a general election? very reticent. it is difficult to see the house backing those red lines. >> it is something the party wants to actually follow. traditional that after a new prime minister comes in under our system where they don't face the electorate immediately, that there would be a general election following sometime soon. i think the key that we would want to see here is stability. we would want to see the prime minister conclude part two of the negotiations. how we have a continued relationship, sorting out the backstop and the partnership
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with europe. have you given thought to who should lead the conservative party after theresa may? >> people are sharpening their pencils and i hope that people are just focus on getting this across the line. suddenly there are tricks being offered and invitations to dinner. i am less focused on the individuals and making sure that we have a progressive one nation party that is fiscally responsible. jobain doesn't incredible in thought leadership and hard power. some new things going on today that require britain and the u.s. to focus on. doing things are that we really need to stand up to. tobias ellwood, conservative member of parliament and regular on bloomberg tv. think of a coming to talk to us
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this morning. it is it for the european open. stay with us on bloomberg television for surveillance. plenty more to come in the house of commons behind me. 2:30 p.m. this afternoon as when the mps will have their say. don't get to vote on the full package from brussels, just on the withdrawal agreement. does it stand any chance of passing. that is one of the big questions for this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: may's last chance saloon, the u.k. prime minister puts her brexit withdrawal agreement to a third boat -- vote. we're live in westminster. lyft could be valued at $25 billion. dazed and confused, overnight interest rates to digits to four digits ahead. surveillance.erg i'm francine lacqua outside of westminster. tom keene is in new york. tamil be traveling to the u.k. next week as we get ready to see the options. that vote will give us an indication of what theresa may can do next.
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we also look at your political situation in the u.s. tom: i think it is a data look back. of simon kennedy and emmer ross thomas, here we are on march 29. and it was messy 2.5 years ago. it is unimaginable how the entire government gets to april. francine: you are right, tom. it has been weeks. march 29 has been tattooed on the brains of many people in the u.k.. its history to bloomberg first word news in new york city. >> the u.s. is ready to negotiate with china for weeks or months to come according to white house economic adviser larry kudlow. and once a deal to ensure beijing improves market access and intellectual property policies.
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treasury secretary steven mnuchin says the talks were "constructive." the german government extended a weapons thatgo for saudi arabia will now run until september 30. no weapons deliveries or new contracts will be allowed. an exception will be made for joint european defense projects. germany was to hold talks to make sure no weapons are used in the saudi led war in yemen. the suit claiming the plane is not safely designed. it follows earlier claims against the company after the october crash in indonesia. boeing's troubles are growing and the plane maker is under intense scrutiny and a criminal probe. the big u.s. tech listing cut off to a stellar start.
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shares are priced at $72 at the top of the revised range. it could end of valuing the company at about $25 billion. this sending an encouraging signal lining up to go public -- to silicon valley companies lining up to go public this year. powered by 2700 journalists in more than 120 countries. -- tom:: as we consider as we consider brexit, the magnitude of two years of united kingdom charm, we really need to look at german unemployment down to an unimaginable statistic of 4.9%. since reunification is extraordinary, but what really is extraordinary, like in america, it is a fully employed germany. it is a fully employed america. so what is going on?
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we talked about opening day, the financial characteristics of recession. that is really not that all that bad. this out of the way and get to francine on the green. not much going on this morning. stable. rates francine? francine: i just want to give everybody a bit of context. it is clear the manufacturers have been struggling. it seems to me that the service is powering ahead. the labor market is developing favorably despite economic
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tailwinds. we see european stocks a little bit up and we see the pound at 1.3027. march 29 is the day that the ..k. was meant to leave the eu ,his brings a huge delay problem is rejecting her divorce deal twice already. they will be asked to back it again today. it remains to be seen if she has one enough support. a little bit of an expert and an insider when it comes to u.k. politics. always great to speak to you. wouldinking is that this be seen from the eu side as basically a meaningful vote.
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this she have the numbers to push this through? >> she has three big groups that she needs to turn around. unionists, and there is no sign of them being persuaded. a trickle ofn holdouts saying that i will vote for the deal because i am worried about no brexit. and finally, she needs some labor mps to make the numbers add up. is not impossible, never say never, but the odds have got to be against this today. what we have seen with the amendments and votes, what do you think the parliament would get behind? >> the biggest majority we have is for delay. -- of leastth every resistance. there will be a difficult hurdle to get to that point, that we
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have to take part in european union parliamentary elections which need to happen in may. it will be very painful. the less time parliament was offered a vote on delay, we had a majority of more than 200. some of that might melt away. i think it is still the overwhelming majority in parliament. it just extends the process. you have a delay of nine months? you have a delay or referendum? >> nobody knows. at some point in the next on months, i think we would get a new conservative leader. i think that would be a very influential direction for government policy but would not change the arithmetic in the house of commons, which is why a lot of people are suggesting general election is the only way to solve this. , which the fixed term means you basically need conservative and dup mp's to
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vote for an election and that is really turkeys voting for christmas. turkeys voting for christmas, that was lost in translation. rupert, thank you for all your work with bloomberg over the last two and a half years of this -- ofbrexit brexit this, brexit that. nigel farage is calling for a revolution. explain where and when the revolution will be in the united kingdom. >> there is pretty threatening talk from some people on the more extreme wing of the pre-brexit campaign, that they are worried about brexit slipping away. worried about a long delay leading to a much softer version of brexit or even no brexit if we end up with a referendum. i think the reality is the people that have brought about the fact that brexit is at risk
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is the right of the conservative party campaigning for brexit for decades that are refusing to vote for this deal. turn aroundle will and say that you have brexit on offer today. harrison, thank you. this year.l focus i will be in london as we move forward to a new quarter in april lummis constitutional battle. kennedyout to simon with his initial leadership of the brexit team. a shutout to robert kaplan. the dallas fed president in the 10:00 hour on the degrees of freedom limited for central banks. this is bloomberg. ♪
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viviana: this is bloomberg surveillance. pay $7neca agreed to billion to buy into a promising japanese cancer treatment. daichi play -- pay sankio. the world's number one weedkiller has been losing in court but bloomberg intelligence says farmers around the world are going to keep using roundup. there are 11,000 lawsuits claiming a chemical in the herbicide causes cancer. the maker of oreo cookies is in talks to buy brands sold by campbell soup. delez is in the process of beeng --the parties have discussing a price of about $2.5 billion.
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and disney is tightening the theme park rules. the company is banning strollers larger than 31 inches wide. wagons of any kind will no longer be allowed. any loose or dry ice will be prohibited. operatorst themepark plans to open new star wars areas in orlando and anaheim. we do international relations and the politics, what it means for wall street. week and this quarter, it has been an extraordinary three months of market activity. rupert looks over the larger bond sphere. if you were to asset allocated to bonds, it makes no sense to viewers or listeners to acquire a negative yield. yesterday, i saw swiss twenty-year negative yields. for thisifferent negative yield in 2019 versus
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the negative yield of 2016? >> it comes back to the discussion you're having with francine earlier about this persistently terrible global trade data coming out of china. the market has overreacted to the manufacturing cycle. with dovish central pretty benign inflationary environment that will underpin consumer demand. and i think you will see the cycle catching back up to resilient domestic economies. tom: well said. but what do you do tactically with asset allocation if you are predicting lower fixed income prices in higher yields?
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do you radically adjust? i think you probably want to move a little bit out of government bonds. we still like owning treasuries in particular. it will still act like a diversifier. you get the correlation with equities in the scenario that you really need. we still want to lean into risk assets. we have had a massive rally year to date. the upside here is inevitably going to be smaller. i think that we will also look for a bit of a rotation. lookingyclical stocks undervalued. and in europe, the pessimism is really overdone. you could see a little bit of about relative to the rest of the world. >> what do the moves in bonds tell us about the impending recession?
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people say this time is different, but how can we be so sure? >> the bond moves don't tell us magical about -- protecting the future. but it tells us what investors are worried about. everyone is focused on the yield curve. it is making people think that maybe they should pay attention to these repeated downsides coming out of the global trade cycle. and weaker earnings revisions we have seen over the recent period. we need a little more conviction over the fact that labor market is very strong, domestic demand in the u.s. will be ok. it demand in the eurozone will be ok. global growth situation will remain relatively stable. everyone has been surprised by the extent of this weakness. i think we are looking for that to bottom. and i think that that at underpin quite a bit of rotation and markets.
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aboutne: should we worry deals in the next impending recession? >> i think that we should worry about that a lot but i don't think it will be the driver over the next two months. basis, the ecbm says that we have all these instruments available. we just can't tell you what they are. the political barriers to plan b are massive. i think the problem is more about a longer-term concern. you know, the underperformance of financial stocks and banking in particular a 2018. does it carry over to this year? there is a tactical opportunity in banking stocks. frame that within the possibility that we get a bit of a rotation back into cyclicals because they are so beaten down. the yield situation has been driving down european banks.
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is a tactical opportunity in terms of allocating a little bit more to financials in particular in europe. it is a case of investing in a lot of these european banks. if your trunk to set a long-term strategic asset allocation, it is a pretty hard case to make. francine: rupert harris from blackrock will stay with us. coming up on bloomberg surveillance, a changing of the guard. wells fargo's chief executive abruptly steps down. we will talk roadblocks to deutsche bank and commerzbank merger. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. tom and francine in london and new york, of course. now onto deutsche bank and shares dipping yesterday after the lender said the report had not discussed crazy capital. this would be in relation to the potential merger of commerzbank. misha has taken a look at the story this morning and says that asia.he bank could spare sometimes being good enough isn't enough.
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that is a situation they may find themselves in if a merger with commerzbank is ahead. it is a good and well thought out article. it is something we don't spend that much time on. let's talk broadly about banks in europe. they needed to transmit that monetary mechanism. are we over bank in europe? it need to be spurred by something in germany, that consolidation? , yess we are over banked we need to oversee the functioning of the eurozone. think there is potential for really significant change if you could deliver on those cost savings. there is quite a lot of skepticism out there about whether that can be delivered. this is a problem,
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right? the business models? what should the banks be? >> i don't know. they need to make some difficult choices. the ecb is worried about this harming profitability in harming the transition mechanism. i don't think there's much they can do about that. they can't really raise rates because of the impact on currency. problema long-standing that will be with us. i don't think the business model challenge can be solved anytime soon. tom: the asian business model is absolutely spectacular. and in there is a single sentence which cuts to the heart of it. that is replaced by junior staff. see in what we will european banking and mergers and combinations baby in the german banks as well? the exit replaced by junior staff?
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>> in the end, they have to cut costs somehow and that is one way to do it. they can also reduce the scale of ambition. gradually and painfully, some of the banks that had a global scale ambitions, they have are treated to consolidate on their core competency which are difficult decisions for management when they want to bigin the ambition to be global players operating on a full spectrum across these markets. tom: you bring up a delicate topic. do you assume it is the blackrock bank analysis team that will see u.k. mergers, united kingdom mergers? >> the argument about the u.k. is that a lot of the big banks in the u.k., particularly royal bank of scotland is something that i was very involved in when i was in government. the government was a major shareholder. there are management teams of big global banks that have
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ambitions to be top-tier players and they find it difficult to cut losses. let's focus on our core competency. a kind of decisions that we will have to see. francine: how do banks cope with negative rates? >> a medley, you cannot transform the core business model in that environment. also at the same time, it is like the that the european macro outlook will come back anytime soon. this comes back on a strategic basis. francine: rupert harrison, think is so much. rupert harrison of blackrock stay with us. the third time's the charm. therese -- theresa may makes it desperate push. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ acts on, the government the democratic will of the ontish people and it acts the clear and convincing
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position of this house. a few minutes ago in brussels, the united kingdoms permanent representatives to the e.u. handed a letter to the president of the european council confirming the government's decision to invoke article 50. tom: we say good morning to all of you worldwide, tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in westminster. joinl joy francine next -- francine next week. i would editorialize that that was a more rested prime minister. how is her health holding up? how is the exhaustion? sure like a lot of people in brussels, the first one that has said it openly was er. jnck i think he set about a month ago
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he was brexit fatigued. i imagine when you speak privately to members of parliament, they feel the same way, but this is the future of the u.k. which is why people are not saying it openly. tom: i remember being on the set with jon ferro the day after brexit, the shock of the nation, and one of the real moments was what with the flows be like into the united kingdom. the flow-through folks got it wrong. the current account deficit has been remarkably stable, and there is the new data, flows in and out of travel, data, and services in the united kingdom. we go to a resilient first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: u.s. policymakers say that economy is on track for solid growth. the new york fed president is
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downplaying fears of a recession. the st. louis fed president expects growth to rebound and calls for aded that rate cut are premature. 25%,i surging last year rising up the global ranking of smartphone makers despite at the center of global security concerns. the chairman says huawei's cybersecurity record is strong. >> while way has the best cybersecurity record over the past 30 years including in recent years when there were malicious cyberattacks, none of which having to do with huawei. viviana: iron ore is heading for the biggest gain since january. it has been under pressure and forced a producer to set--shut down. investors are trying to figure out the long run consequences of that decision.
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mayralia warning that curtail iron ore supply for at least 10 years. president trump feels vindicated andobert mueller's report it was an attempt to illegally regain power. william barr did not provide full vindication, saying the court touched report does not conclude -- report does not conclude the president committed a crime but it does not exonerate him. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. francine: thank you so much. theresa may will put her brexit deal to another vote today but this will only be a vote on the withdrawal agreement, not the part that focuses on the future relationship with the e.u. they are planning to increase or decrease the level of detail for the separation.
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.oining us as maria tadeo it seems there is almost a belief when you speak to insiders that a long extension is probably the way forward if the deal does not get through, which at the moment seems unlikely. do we know whether the e.u. would be prepared to give the u.k. a long extension? maria: that is really the question here, and the mood in brussels is very bleak. there is no indication the deal will go through and the debate for e.u. leaders is to decide the least damaging option for the e.u., to crash out april 12 skeptic u.k. in the e.u. they are dealing with a very weak prime minister. the u.k. has not figure out -- figured out what kind of relationship they want.
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european leaders on not get trapped into a series of short extensions. specifically, they do not want brexit to hijack the next election cycle in may. francine: what the e.u. leaders -- would the e.u. leaders rather negotiate with someone rather than theresa may because they feel she keeps moving the goal posts? , they a very long time did think prime minister may was the best option. she have--has dealt with them for three years. she has been criticized for keeping her cards close to the chest, but this is something they are use to. whenever you face the chance of a brexiteer in power, that is difficult, especially jeremy corbyn. his policy, they are not convinced he is a fan of the
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european union and would like to be back or carry out a significant policies. the red lines are very much red. -- that is a no go when it comes to the e.u. francine: maria tadeo in brussels. we are getting live pictures out of parliament. john barco, the speaker of the house has just started the proceedings. rupert harrison is still with us. more famous than theresa may. rupert: he is becoming a cult figure. almost a he is political figure. rupert: he is the illustration of the fact that the heart of the british constitution is the house of commons. usually in british politics when you have a majority, you are the
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government. has verylly, the u.k. significant because of the majority. they do not have a majority on the key issue of the day so all the action is going from 10 downing street into the house of commons. john barco has a lot of power over what gets debated. francine: well that -- well the e.u.--will the e.u. have to grant the u.k. an extension. rupert: i think we will see a where we last year will see some tough rhetoric, it is time to force the u.k. to make a decision. i do not think the european union will want to force a no deal exit ahead of an election. tom: a broader view as we stagger to march 29, is a perception in britain that fancy
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andle from eaton and oxford the university college london are all removed from the debate across all of the united kingdom. how does london attached to the rest of the united kingdom in this constitutional debate? rupert: ed is a very good question because i think the country is divided. it is not just london versus the rest of the world. it is cities against towns. you can see a different point of view in scotland relative to england. the last political parties are incredibly divided. what this comes down to is not the debate forward but the numbers in the house of commons. it is about the people in that building and how they choose to vote. tom: well said.
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let me go to a chart, this is sterling. we do this for rupert harrison because he has helped us so much on that june day 2016. this is sterling and here is the fear of a weaker britain. regression and the of a weaker sterling is a trend to a 1.23. what has been the wealth erosion of the united kingdom, given all this politics? british consumers have felt the weaker currency. we had some figures out showing that the recovery in real -- from here,own there is probably more upside for starling than downside. is no deal risk
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significantly more than the market is pricing and a long extension lifts pressure a little bit. the underlying condition in the u.k. is sluggish growth but not catastrophic. francine: i am not quite sure what to make of it, he is saying the legal right to a brexit extension expires at 11:00 p.m. exitsgotiated effort -- require a withdrawal agreement and voting against this one hand the e.u. vote on extension. what role does he have? he put theresa may in a hotspot. rupert: he is in an unusual position where he is a political figure and you have to see everything he says through the prism of, it is a desperate attempt by theresa may and the government to force this choice
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on mp's. that message is partly for labor mp's to say, do you want to put the future of the u.k. into the hands of other european countries on whether to grant an extension? a difficult balancing act threatens both sides of the debate, the probe brexit people, you are getting--pro brexit people, you are getting a long delay, and the worry by the labour party that we could crash out. francine: rupert harrison of blackrock stays with us. the number two u.s. ride-hailing company, lyft, will begin trading on nasdaq. what will affect let--prices? this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from westminster and new york. 25% lastrnings surging year despite global certainty and trade tensions. they are quickly rising up the ranks of the global market. ofspoke exclusively to one the three rotating chairman about cyber security concerns. >> i noticed the oversight board's report was issued last night. there is not a single back door installed by any country in huawei's products. the u.k.'s cybersecurity position has not worsened. i would love to say that huawei has the best cybersecurity years whenluding 30
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there were malicious security -- cyberattacks. >> there is a question of whether founders of the company are members of the communist party of china, that they could turn around. can they really turn around to leaders within the communist party and say, i will break my oath to the communist party even if the government leaders are saying this is in the national security interest and the interest of the company and the party to get access to your system's data, or the possibility to spy on other nations. is that a realistic proposal? >> from the perspective of china and huawei, it is rare and difficult to have a company like us that can compete globally. we hope huawei can create more tax income and jobs. if you take inappropriate
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actions like the u.s. or australia, those compromise plans to boost gdp and create jobs. whenad actions from us damage employee shareholders and go against management's interest. huawei would never do that. ipo'sight now on lyft, on and valuations and the frenzies and memories of 2000, eileen burbidge. it is perfect to have eileen with us at queen victoria street. year 2000, what is different in this foolishness now? eileen: there is a couple of differences. you have got a lot of money and the private market boosting these companies and they are building and creating moats and establishing market dominance in
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a way we did not see in the stockholm boom. we are seeing genuine revenue. we are not seeing profits but we are seeing revenue. that is significant. that, that go with it is different, but at the same time it is not security analysis 101. are the bankers playing by a different rulebook? eileen: i think you are talking about the peak or a bull run of nine plus years now. it is frothy times and people are optimistic. they are seeing the market share these companies command and in lyft, a company that values about 20% of its rival. there is the belief there is some value to be gotten. i cannot say. francine: talk about how this will be perceived as a litmus test for the rest of technology.
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last year we had so many ipo's, snap and alibaba, and both were up on the first trading day. snap is down by two thirds and alibaba has tripled almost. eileen: i think we are going to see another pop today. because lyft will go up it was so heavily over -- oversubscribed. it was oversold by the second day of the roadshow so i imagine there will be demand to get in early. a year from now, who knows what will happen with the macro economic client, but this is a big indicator for ipo's. pinterest, zoom already filed its prospectus. it is a profitable business. francine: where would you put your money? the payment services system are
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companies like lyft and the shares economy? eileen: i am always probably talking about the fintech sector because that is what we do so well. i like payments, financial services, technology for financial services. i would go for zoom because of its fundamentals and financials. i would stay away from uber and lyft because they are so far from generating a profit, and once they have pressure they will have to increase fares or take a cut out of drivers' wages. that will cause all sorts of problems in the next year or so. francine: eileen burbidge, thank you so much. we are back with rupert harrison of blackrock. a conversation with the joins usca ceo who after the drugmaker forged its
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biggest deal and more than a decade. we will have plenty more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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viviana: this is bloomberg
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"surveillance." h&m reporting first-quarter profit that beat expectations. they managed to cut back on clearance sales. 17%, the smartest -- smallest quarterly profit in eight years, but it still beat and a most dutch analyst estimates. executive of wells fargo is stepping down as he struggled to handle scandals. externallys looking for a permanent replacement. elizabeth warren is chairing the shouldre and says "he have been fired a long time ago." deutsche bank's merger plan could be under threat due to mounting opposition.
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shareholders are bulking at the plan. labor unions want to block it and within the bank, there is growing skepticism, but they are still talking. bloomberg understands the chances of a deal are dwindling. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: let's get back to brexit. it is very painful. this is what he is saying about the deal. "it is very painful to vote for this deal but i hope we can work together to remedy the defects, avoid the backstop, and strive to deliver the brexit people voted for." you understand the conservative party like few people do. is this positioning to become the next leader after theresa may? run us through the nuances. rupert: you have to see all the
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leadership contenders, and boris is one. fired they has starting gun on the election. boris is making the decision that he needs to be in favor of the deal because the big challenge for boris is going through the first stage of elections. this leadership election involves whittling the candidates down to two and the final go to membership to decide. boris lost a lot of support amongst colleagues in the house of commons. angryre are member dutch with members of the erg -- angry with members of the erg. boris calculates he needs to vote for the deal to get the support of mp's. dominic rob who was the brexit secretary who resigned as the
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only one holding out against the deal. francine: could we assume that the two that will go down will be a pro brexit and more moderate conservative? rupert: you can never assume anything. .his will be a wide field i think it will be a former imainer and a brexiteer and think the leadership will choose the brexiteer. tom: thank you for all your work on brexit with us over the last two and half years. we will continue from westminster, this historic day in the united kingdom. christopher verrone with us. ♪ so with xfinity mobile
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customize each line by paying for data by the gig or get unlimited. and now get $250 back when you buy a new samsung galaxy. click, call, or visit a store today. ♪ tom: this morning, we can march the 29th. it was to be independence day
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for the united kingdom, instead, constitutional chaos. they yearn to replace theresa may. look for fireworks from parliament as the prime minister fights for her political life. -- why should you own stocks in lyft? awaitpinterest, they trying to be the next. they do not want to be pets.com or e choice.com. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance," live from our green,eadquarters on the a lovely day in london, francine lacqua with us. are the protesters protesting today? francine: not much. it is pretty quiet.
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i am seeing more pro brexit protesters than in the past. because, we are march 29. this was the data to two everybody's brain where we were going to leave the e.u. it is a fairly quiet westminster as we await the vote on the withdrawal of the agreement. we should have that in about three hours. the the american reading british newspapers, it is extraordinary. continuing negotiations between the u.s. and china for weeks or even months, according to larry kudlow. the u.s. wants a deal to ensure beijing improves market assets and intellectual property policies, as the top u.s. trade team concluded talks with chinese negotiators. steve mnuchin said the talks
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were constructive. pay nearly agrees to $7 billion to buy a japanese cancer treatment. it will pay them to jointly develop a cancer therapy. this is their biggest deal in more than a decade. do not miss our exclusive with the ceo. being sued on behalf of passengers who died in ethiopia, claiming the plane is not safely designed. it follows earlier claims against the company. boeing's troubles are growing. they are under intense scrutiny and a criminal probe. billion ing $2.3 it's a national puffer -- initial public offering. up valuing the
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company at around $25 billion, sending and encouraging signal to silicon companies looking to glow -- looking to go public this year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. it is a nuanced jumble at the end of the quarter. remember with the other quarters , the last week of december was extraordinary. the euro really gets my attention, migrating to a 1.11 handle would be a big deal. yieldcreen in the low space, two year yield in germany more interesting than the 10 year. a 0.63 would be a huge deal. gold cells over the month of ofch -- sells over the month
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march. francine: i am looking at stocks. they are up globally but not much. european stocks getting 0.3%. gains.holding onto pound traders facing another key brexit vote as it weakens a touch. we should have the results at a30 p.m. theresa may is in desperate push to get her deal over the line. members of parliament have rejected her deal twice already but will be asked to back it again today. it remains to be seen if she has won enough support. catherine barnard
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and rob hutton. if you were a betting man, what are the odds of this going forward? rob: no. zero. francine: not even 5%? rob: i concluded that if everything went theresa may's way today, she might get it over the line. the democratic unionists said they will not vote for it. night who reckoned among 30 members of the erg will not vote for it. the other thing she needs is labour mp's to come over and and amendment might have given them some cover to come over, but that will not happen so none. francine: are we looking at a long delay? catherine: there is a good
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chance we leave in april with no deal at all, because that is the default position. we were meant to leave with no deal unless we get an extension. theresa may may have to ask for a third extension and it will probably be for at least nine months or a year, and we have to have european parliament elections. the labour and conservatives, it means they will have to have elections and for the e.u., they are word that populist parties fact --l in fact, -- in view. in their francine: the dup is saying there is no chance they will change their mind on a deal today. the only thing we know with certainty, parliament does not want a no deal. if they had to choose between no
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deal and a long extension, with a not automatically choose the extension? catherine: it is not theirs to decide. unanimous agreement of the e.u. 27, the only thing parliament can do unilaterally is to revoke article 50. e.u.upreme court of the said before christmas, absolutely, we can revoke article 50. we can stay a member state on the existing terms. earlier this week, there was not a majority in parliament for revoking article 50, so we are back into the realm of three choices, leaving with no deal or asking for an extension or adopting theresa may's deal. tom: we are thrilled to have you with us. this could be a one hour
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discussion with these two. let me go to rob hutton who is not a legal scholar professor but is a scholar of the journalistic doddle. -- battle. who is winning the newspaper war? which side has won the rhetorical war of the journalists in the united kingdom? reallyat is a interesting and difficult question. week, andppening this it would take a heart of stone not to laugh, various newspapers who have been arguing strongly that what theresa may was arguing was not brexit and should not be accepted. they are all climbing down from that this morning. website setal, the up to lobby for a hard brexit
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said, maybe you should vote for this deal after all. they have realized it does mean brexit, which they have been saying for a long time. they are having quite a bad week. i do not know that anyone -- nobody wins in newspapers these days. it has been great for trade. from a professional point of doing the better work but it would be hard to pick a winner. are catherine barnard, you one of the united kingdom's true legal scholars on this. would you translate norway plus, canada plus, the jersey option over to what you said two minutes ago that no deal is possible? is that where we are heading where all legal scholarship those out the window? catherine: absolutely.
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what you are seeing is all of those options, canada plus, norway, and so forth, are all dependent on the u.k. signing up to the withdrawal agreement. there is a sequencing going on, the withdrawal agreement, then transition. if there is no withdrawal agreement, everything else does not follow. i was talking to a senior from the e.u. yesterday that says the chances are up 80% we will be in a no deal situation. what happens if we crash out april 12 with no deal and things go very badly, which there is , and chance that could then we turn around to the e.u. and said, that deal we have rejected three times? can we have some more of that? a big legal problem.
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that withdrawal agreement is dependent on article 50 which is turned off the moment we leave the e.u. there are issues of resurrecting the withdrawal agreement because the e.u. will not negotiate with us going forward without us settling up over the money and sorting out e.u. citizens' rights and the north ireland border, all of which are in the withdrawal agreement. francine: thank you, catherine barnard and rob hutton. the astrazeneca chief executive forgess as the drugmaker its biggest deal in more than a million on ang $47 cancer treatment. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ good morning come up bloomberg "surveillance." westminster,ua and i will join her next week. friday, prime minister may and parliament as we speak, will be interesting. we have to get through the weekend and into the second quarter and a new era in the brexit debate. we turn to the markets with christopher verrone, who does charts. i want to make it more of a bigger picture chat. let's throw the charts out the window. explain the technical emotion of october, a horrific december, the greatest recovery no one has participated in since time began , and this massive question for
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april, now what? what do the charts tell you? downtopher: we had 20% october, november, december, 20% march,uary, february, leaving us basically unchanged. one hundred 30 trading days since the high of september 2018. these correlate most closely with the 1990, 1991 recession, coming off those lows, and we paused before resuming higher. the not -- do not be shocked if the market takes a breather. tom: are you looking at a vector market ora legit bull is it a bull market within a bear market trend? christopher: it has been a major low in the fourth quarter 2018. most global markets were in a
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bear market all of last year and you see major bottoms developed in europe and china, and most recently in the u.s. the trick is not getting wrapped up around the negative macro news and sticking with the trend. francine: thank you so much, christopher verrone stays with us. let's talk about pharmaceuticals and astrazeneca agreeing to pay nearly $7 million to buy into a promising japanese cancer treatment. it is their biggest deal in more than a decade. we are delighted to be joined by the astrazeneca ceo on the phone from frankfurt, germany. what gives you such confidence in this drug? >> thank you for having may, first of all. the confidence we have is this is an agent we have been studying for quite some time.
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withve had interactions them for quite some time. is a world r&d expert in breast cancer and has been involved in the development of many products. there is always an element of risk. thatve great confidence this is transformative medicine for breast cancer patients. francine: how big do you think the drug could become? ascal: we think it can become standard care and the treatment high breastall her2 cancer. it also has an indication in her2 low where there is no option and it can be used outside of breast cancer, so the potential is very large. we see it as a mega blockbuster.
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we have not given indication of the peak sales, but the family in theucts by roche breast cancer sector, about $80 billion a year. francine: can you give us a range? you have not given it. what is your top forecast for how much you could generate? pascal: it is a multibillion-dollar product. we have not given guidance what the peak numbers could be. her2 highment of today, they could sell $11 billion a year. it can also have an implication in her2 low treatment. we think it is very substantial as a potential. francine: given the immediate cash for the deal is about $1
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billion, why did you raise so much more? because weraised wanted to cover the upfront payments and the milestones that will be paved over the next couple of years. we further extended this equity raise a little bit to reduce our debt and strengthen our balance sheet and credit rating. most of this goes to the deal itself and a little bit goes to securing and strengthening our credit rating. like keepingis it normal operations afloat when you talk about a credit rating? pascal: not at all, it is fueling our growth. we are entering a time when we will grow rapidly and the last few quarters demonstrated that we are back to growth. we are fueling this growth with this agent that is transformative and will have enormous potential.
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is here toeplacement support our growth potential. most of the equity will go to the cash outlays that are required to enter this transaction, a cash outlay over the next couple of years. francine: i think we have heard from other people in leadership at astrazeneca that you may be interested in chinese biotech. give us a sense of how much appetite there is for m&a. pascal: we are focused on our own pipeline and r&d. we have a strong plan which is being launched and generating this growth. we also focused on moving the next wave of new products from the mid-stage plan to the long-term. forre also looking
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opportunities to strengthen our pipeline, and this is a good opportunity. it will strengthen our leadership in oncology. we will continue doing this, but the number one focus is our own r&d and pipeline. francine: thank you so much. he is the astrazeneca chief executive officer. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. ofiana: the chief executive wells fargo is stepping down after struggling to control scandals. the company is looking externally for a replacement. elizabeth warren is chairing the departure and saying "he should have been fired a long time ago." deutsche bank's merger plan could be under threat from mounting opposition. commerzbankk and
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agreed to look at a deal but consumers are balking at the plan and within the banks there is growing skepticism. bloomberg understands the chances of a deal are dwindling. tom: thank you so much. it is a joy to have christopher verrone with us on a chart. first, we look at the mysteries of share dilution and we can only do that with alison williams of bloomberg intelligence. to show you the nitty-gritty of this, walked into the rady with me- radio studio and jon ferro yesterday with a piece of paper scribbled out with potential deutsche bank share dissolution -- dilution. many think a bit overpriced within japan. what are your 24-hour thoughts if and when deutsche bank has to do another cash call? the keyi think that
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thing with deutsche bank is that we make a decision, or they make a decision. this has been a deal a lot of people have thought about, has been talked about for a couple of years. finally, that the management is setting down and trying to figure out math, according to the store yesterday which is obviously just a story, they could be raising 3 billion to 10 billion to finance the deal, the fact that we are hearing more and more of the economics of the deal. it is tough to make the economics work. if they come to a conclusion this is not the strategy and move forward with something else or simply move on, that is important. tom: how well the institutional shareholders respond, both within germany and london, and worldwide, to the cash call? alison: my guess is the shareholders have probably had
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discussions with management or management is involved with shareholders in terms of their thoughts. as the deal the right thing to do where they will have to raise a lot of capital to fund the deal? do they raise capital on their own to show outsiders that think they are stable, and install confidence in the bank? that could help the investment bank. a deal does not fix the core revenue challenge for either bank, but if deutsche bank can get a floor of confidence underneath the bank at could help its trading business. brilliantn williams, on share dilution and what we could see from deutsche bank and commerzbank. we do not know what this chart is. what does that vector tell you? there is a 12 year chart of a mystery company. what does it say?
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christopher: the trend is unequivocally down in the last rally for the last 12 years has been sold. that has to be the operating thesis, be skeptical about rallies until you are proven wrong. bank, the ideahe of a broken stock or value trap, defined those. christopher: a value trap is precisely what we are looking at , a name that persistently underwhelm's, where every rally has been sold. what is interesting about european banks broadly, some of the italian banks are acting a little bit better and some of the spanish banks are acting a little better. maybe look to some european banks x deutsche bank. allison and tell fundamentalists that u.s. banks
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are shaping up? christopher: they are oversold enough for a rally. the same position we were in late december of last year, the trends are weak but i think they are good enough to get some kind of rally moving forward. tom: when we vetted "surveillance," this is what we wanted, alison williams and christopher verrone. robert kaplan does not hear about the fundamentals. he just wants to make sure the banks are solvent. the dallas fed, a more than timely conversation that the quinnipiac conference with kathleen hays in the 10:00 hour. stay with us. ♪
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♪ today, the government acts on the democratic will of the tooish people and it acts
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on the clear and convincing position of this house. , few minutes ago in brussels the united kingdom's permanent representatives to the e.u. handed a letter to the president of the european council confirming the government's decision to invoke article 50. francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." that was theresa may and this was a couple years ago. we are at the day we were supposed to leave the e.u. and this is the third time mps will vote on the deal. more on brexit throughout the day. let's get straight to viviana hurtado. u.s. policymakers say this year, the economy is on track for solid growth despite concerns of markets. st. louis fed president james bullard expects growth to rebound and adds calls for a rate cut are premature.
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while way surging 25% last year, -- while way surging 25% -- wei surging 25%a last year. >> we have the best security record over the last 30 years, including recent years when there were malicious cyberattacks. feelsa: president trump vindicated by robert mueller's report and says the investigation was an attempt to illegally regain power by those who lost the presidential election. william barr did not provide fall vindication, quoting mueller as saying it does not conclude president committed a crime but does not exonerate him. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado.
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tom: thank you so much. we would love to give you perspective from people to give you -- from people with different views. christian verona. -- christopher verrone. this is the guy you want to talk to about the networking network lyft. and expert inngh is truly efficiencies and the dreaded technical word, the synergies. there is a hope, and architecture of hope about vectors out to 2021, 2025. what is the certitude that those vectored's -- vectors, what is the believability they could pull it off? mandeep: right now investors
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think they are a platform company that is geared toward transforming the transportation industry. tom: so was last-minute.com. --deep: the good thing it is is it is a duopoly. there are just two companies in the united states and four are or five globally. now it is about adding more mobility services and cleaning up your cost structure. that is paramount. they need to fix the payment processing, background check costs that are eating up gross margins. tom: when do you get to any sense of profitability? something as boring as cable tv, always add we will get there, and they did it. these guys are totally different. what is the timeline? mandeep: they have laid it out
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margin structure of 20%. it will take them at least five years to get there, or longer. right now, they are in investment mode, investing in autonomous. tom: help me. he has so taken the kool-aid on all this. we have been on a million conference calls where the hope of three to four years out is dashed in one signal by the cfo. when is that conference call? mandeep: at the end of their first quarter. tom: let's give them a victory lap, but sometime in 2020 they will say, we have got to extend the vectors out. mandeep: yeah. tom: what do you mean? we know there is three or four conference calls out where guys s.ke you will go, oop
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mandeep: we compare them to the online travel guys except online travel has higher esp's and a much mature model, but the model is similar. tom: this is single best chart and we will do it right now and again in a couple minutes. how about the nasdaq adjusted for inflation and set logarithmically? this is the collapse of 2000. right here is when all the mandeep singhs in this world were like, we are finding our synergy. is that how you look at these deals? christopher: it is not, and there is a big difference. every issue brought to market has acted very well. there is an ipo index on bloomberg that acts eccentrically -- essential --
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well. it will be a bellwether for nasdaq and broader market. tom: francine? francine: chris, how long does it take for more ipos to come on the market? we are looking at two test cases, alibaba and snap. they both rose 40% in the first couple of days and now i could not be more different. alibaba tripled in market value and snap is down by one third. does it take three months or six months? christopher: that is the big question, how many quarters does the street give lyft to show up with numbers? i am not sure i am the right person to answer that, but when you move away from alibaba and softwarecan name 20 stocks that have exceptional ipo's as well. space, what ise
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doing really well? as one: i look at lyft and they have listed themselves as a service company. they want to be traded at high premium multiples. because their gross margin structure is not sorted out and they are nowhere close to profitability, software services companies generate a lot of cash flow, i do not think they will generate premiumon and they will be somewhere in the middle. the let's bring up bloomberg ipo index that esther verrone just brought up. the sharesg to own of lyft? if it is 98.25% insiders with a stub of equity
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ownership, who will own those? mandeep: you already have fidelity and long-term investors. i think it will be slow ramp in terms of longs -- long-term investors building up their stakes, but they have a lot of long-term investors. tom: what is the closest equivalent of lyft that they have in the tech world? mandeep: i think the online travel guys, booking and expedia are the closest. tom: mandeep singh, thank you so much. we will continue here, lots going on, including the work at westminster. we will speak with the cofounders of lyft, looking forward to that in the 9:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ this as bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine lacqua at westminster. in the house of commons behind me, there is debate and the parliamentarians will vote. that is around 2:30 p.m. u.k. time so we will have an idea whether theresa may has any chance at all to get this through, a long delay, or a no deal brexit. leaders from various e.u.
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germany andnce and ireland, will meet next week. president macron will be visited by the tee shot of ireland. angela merkel will discuss brexit in dublin. it is interesting. theresa may is trying to put lostgh a deal but she has quite badly. the e.u. are trying to organize themselves. tom: i love hearing the fight song in the background, that really helps out, with some of that new london color and celebration of their new stadium. we will look at a business flash with viviana hurtado. viviana: michael jordan is looking overseas to grow the sports apparel empire he created with nike. the story is in the latest issue
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of "bloomberg businessweek ." >> the numbers do not seem to add up. michael jordan scored more than 32,000 points, made 14 all-star teams, and won six nba titles. nameis making jordan a hot in europe, the home of soccer. -- the jordaning collection sold out at launch and that helped fuel a sales resurgence for france. in 2018.sales fell despite the drop, revenues rose in europe, china, and the middle east. nike and jordan are picking up steam when adidas is falling behind on its home turf. sales inn company's europe fell 6%.
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viviana: you can read the whole story in "bloomberg businessweek." us: christopher verrone with as we look at the markets, wrapping up the quarter and trying to look forward to a second quarter. courage is also needed in ,ashington, and we are thrilled he has left the beltway, kevin cirilli. lapnted to take a victory on your interview with mr. trump jr. we know what he will say, but to be fair, there are always distinctions. what was a key distinction in your conversation? kevin: there is no question he will contemplate running for political office himself. that, dating years back, has been something he has suggested.
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the broader take away is we are just one week from the news of there being no additional indictments in the trump political orbit. let's be frank, his name and others were reported as having a host -- tom: is he all clear now? kevin: in terms of the mueller report, absolutely, but this is the big one. if there had been additional indictments, this would've been a different week for the media and policy. ran in the time that you into mr. kudlow yesterday, lawrence kudlow one trade, he is a free-trader. lawrencetradey is kudlow and how non-free-trade is everybody else? kevin: he cleared up some of the comments by president trump yesterday and said that while the president said some tariffs
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might be left in place, some of those tariffs -- keyword "some of those tariffs" -- might come off. tom: we had the special olympics and the back-and-forth, and the president had to clean that up as well. will we get the same surprises in the kudlow dialogue? kevin: essentially. larry kudlow saying he hears the concerns and there could be an offramp for tariffs. tom: here is kudlow now. >> we have to see what the track record is and we are not going to give up our leverage. just to clarify, that does not mean all the tariffs. some of the tariffs will be kept. tom: larry kudlow, i know he read jacob barter -- jacob viner in 1948. how are your technical charts
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affected by the global export/import debate of kudlow and cirilli's world? christopher: try to find me one example historically where chinese stocks rallied 20% and stopped. these are 100% or 200% moves. the 20% rally is a modest move for china. tom: you have got to be careful. he will take his winnings from michigan and dump them into chinese stocks. christopher: i have my carolina blue tie on. tom: francine, please. francine: i have been trying to jump in because i wanted to ask about michigan. it was amazing to see that rally by president trump, his first rally since the mueller report came out. is this the kind of trump we saw the last time he became
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president and will anything change? kevin: i am surprised it took four days to get him back on the campaign trail. michigan in particular is battleground zero in terms of the trade debate we are having in this country. the bottom line is that the president is prepared to go much further, according to people close to the white house. francine: thank you so much, kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent. coming up next, plenty more from brexit. third time is a charm. theresa may makes a brexit push to get the brexit deal approved. we will discuss the problems of getting that through. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ best as bloomberg
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"surveillance," tom and francine from new york and london as we await the crucial vote on the withdrawal of the agreement. theresa may is making a desperate push to get her deal over the line and avoid a huge delay in the divorce. members of parliament have rejected her divorce deal twice already. the vote will be around 2:30 p.m. u.k. time. we are joined by a conservative mp. a lot of background noise, it seems to vacillate between pro brexit and pro remain. real chancesea the of this withdrawal deal going through. >> i think it will be a lot closer than in the past. i previously voted against it and i will vote for it today.
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francine: what has made you change your mind? the same withdrawal agreement, is it because she said she would step down? >> the whole process has been a shambles. the government strategy has been poor and we have gotten a bad deal. the prime minister is right in taking responsibility. francine: is this the only deal she could have gotten with the redline? >> you could go back and start the whole process and chances are that the deal would pass. the consequences of staying would be a long extension and that could be damaging. we are seeing alternative paths that could take us into a new referendum or leaving on less favorable terms that have been negotiated. we have to work with what we have got. francine: who will be the next prime minister after theresa may? >> i think she should go as soon
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as possible and allow a time fore period of debate on who the new leader there's -- who the new leaders should be. tom: you are a marketing guy. is borderlineice iconic with advertising. what is the new branding message conservatives need after march 29? >> i think we have got to bring this country back together again. there is a real danger this country and its politics could be ripped apart by one side of people who will never reconcile themselves with the guard to the referendum and others regard it as something where they will not compromise. become an incredibly divisive issue. we need the prime minister to bring this country back together again. tom: that did not happen under
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mr. cameron and it is certainly been to malt under prime t underr may -- tumul prime minister may. what are the chances a new prime minister could coalesce yourself? >> a new prime minister has to have a new approach. presentmay has tried to congress -- parliament with a fait accompli. in qualities we will need the next party, someone who can work with a broad cross-section of people and get back onto the domestic agenda. we have an economy that is improving, but there is no certainty for the future. domestic issues like housing and health care need to be addressed. tom: most interesting on this historic march 29, damien
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collins, a conservative member of parliament. inost exciting week forward april. i am absolutely interested in your thoughts looking back two and a half years. what is your quick take on march 29? francine: i think there is a mispricing and the markets about 100% because the default is a no deal brexit. parliament does not want that and has to look at the end game. if theresa may does not get her withdrawal agreement today, they will likely ask brussels for a longer extension and we will see if the french want that. ♪
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"all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. ♪ >> lone out, banks in pain. tim sloan quits the bank.
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morgan stanley's president retires as all banks suffer their worst months since december. -- the company's prices we're going to talk tech pipeline with allan patrick cross. nd trade talks constructive. steve mnuchin looks into trade talks. an agreement is not time dependent. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this friday. david west on is off today. happy friday. happy end of the month. we made it. >> happy brexit. we're still going on with brexit in parliament. >> they're debating. they've been debating for the last few hours. the votes is going to come in three and a half hour's time. there's two things they're going to vote on is leave the e.u. 's

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