tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 3, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
let's look at the stories. global growth slowing, industry-specific de-stocking and also trade issues. >> the nasdaq up. even lyft. joe: that's how you know people are feeling good. the s&p and nasdaq making fresh highs, another melt up. thus far, the market is buying green shoes. >> i want to take a look at the dow. the benefitceiving
of that tailwind. it is reflecting what you are talking about, the bullish versus the bearish. take a look at this range over the last year. .olding well investors got a little excited, but right now we are at the top of the range. it will be interesting to see whether we have macro data or , a turned to move up or back down into the range. >> when you look at the rally over the past few months, most strategists are standing by their year-end targets for s&p 500. out of 24 analysts, the average estimate is 2900.
2950 is the line in the sand. that is not different from where we were back in january or back in late february. that tells you something. see itght analysts getting to that 3000 level, and only two exceeding that level. the lowest price target is 2390. took a pause with prices flatlining in new york and london. brent looking at contracts traded in london, their best one quarter since 2009. the prices are at the highest level since november. there is a question of what will push things higher. grind, not ay
dramatic rise from which makes people feel it is more sustainable. >> just below $70 a barrel at the moment. our our guests. with your call on the second half of 2019 tougher for equities, which sectors would be most vulnerable? >> we have seen damage done to the financials. a good bit has been on the yield curve flattening, which has been our call. expected a yield curve inversion into the presidential election in 2016, but especially since central banks have been so our economy date of -- so accommodative. yields are still negative. it is more difficult to get a
steeper yield curve in the u.s. .anks will have some downside regionals and money center banks have gotten hit. i am not very constructed there. i think transports are at risk. >> i want to bring up a chart i saw earlier. about end it is all earnings. there has been a jump up in earnings estimates. it does look like the long may be of estimates coming to a bottom. what is the overall view? >> i don't think this chart has enough potential. >> just to be clear, this is autumns up, it is the correlation rather than top down. you think they should be able
to get it in the ballpark. that would be an encouraging development. if you look at the em version coming you could have called it already this year, so people will be waiting to be proven right a wrong. formates are always high earnings season. >> how do you think we are set analysts, have they come down enough? been hitnks, they have hard, so expectations are low. to thes revisions downside for the rest of the market were as aggressive as 2012. is not movingck me very much. if anything, with all due
respect and apologies, bottom-up analysts never get the inflection right. this is just the way it is. we had bitcoin rowling. -- rallying. you see it as a pure proxy for risk sentiment. is that something you can read for overall sentiment? >> it is a data point. we have a 25% move bitcoin over three days. there is no real reason for it other than a change in sentiment. that change comes back to central banks in this perception ut taken away in december is back on the table. i think the fed will be slower
to cut than futures are implying. is our dashboard for all the digital currencies. it is pretty much green across the board. up 53%, significant move. about?so are we talking what about other currencies, dollar, for example? arehe confusion is weak talking about bitcoin at all. testament to how sleepy asset classes have gone. we were worried about systematic selling on in version and spiraling from there. it is a testament to risk appetite is back. 7% on atcoin was up
heady day, we would love to talk about it. the whole twitter luster talk about moves. >> it is pretty striking regardless of even on a day where the yield curve was inverting. >> that does it for the closing bell. next, the team will be looking at the trade deal they are crafting. the u.s. is to set a 2025 target to meet trade pledges for china. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> live from new york, i am caroline hyde. here is how the u.s. market closed, a steady grind higher. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" caroline: expectations a trade agreement could be reached, but how to enforce any deal? there were inconclusive talks across the atlantic. theresa may and jeremy corbyn ton talks as mp's push broker a no deal. facebook fumbles, again. millions of records hiding in plain sight and posted publicly on amazon's service. we begin with trade talks between the u.s. and china in
washington this week. is to set the u.s. 2025 is the target for china to fulfill its trade places -- pledges. our guest joins us now. peter, thank you for joining us. we were talking about the enforcement and timing part is really crucial. even if they agree on principles, how do you enforce compliance is difficult. what is the mechanism by which these trade deals are typically enforced? >> this news that bloomberg is reporting is big. it just broke. the idea is by 2025 china would have to buy certain amounts of different commodities and so on. it is the first time that number has been put on the table. if china did not achieve the treaty, the in this
u.s. would be able to respond unilaterally. this is not allowed under ordinary wto rules. it is a separate bilateral arrangement. china does not like that. the reporting bloomberg has is not clear whether this is something the chinese have agreed to or it is the u.s. is putting it on the table. it would seem like an infringement on chinese sovereignty, we decide if you are not complying. we put tariffs on you and you don't have any right to retaliate. >> do we have any sense of how to eager china is to do a deal? think china is eager to strike a deal. it is because the chinese economy is slowing. china's export markets are slim because of a slowdown in global trade. the since you get from the way the negotiations are going is throwing out
proposals rapidly in response to u.s. demands. it may not be everything the u.s. wants. , andng at it from new york i am am not in washington close to negotiations, china is trying to substitute speed for size when it comes to concessions. we will give you something quickly. trump, whoappeal to would like to strike a deal and wants to get something done. somethingbeen hearing today. there was a speech in new york. what did you get from china's consul general? >> he gave a talk today. he was not divulging anything about the trade talks. china's straight line which you always hear, these are two great powers. there will naturally be some stress the between them, but we
should enlarge the sphere of cooperation between the two countries. >> what will you be watching for next? >> we have a great team of bloomberg news people who are much closer to this than i am. , would chinado agree to the terms of this proposal from where there will be a 2020 deadline? aboutis it going to be buying u.s. commodities? that has never been satisfactory to people like robert lighthizer. they like to throw a lot of soybeans, jet, and wheat into the mix and hope that makes america go away. to own 100% of certain companies. it is great to get your perspective.
you can hear from our magazines reporters and editors every saturday on sunday on television and radio. theresa may and jeremy corbyn agreed to step up brexit work after positive talks, even as mark carney warns that the risks deal brexit are alarmingly high. this is something that the eu and jean-claude juncker are talking about. is very real. today we have a number of announcements made by the european commission. they said if there is a no deal brexit that there will be severe disruptions. would see big delays, custom checks. this puts the irish government in a difficult position. that theythis idea
can manage a no deal is fantasy. they said this relationship is so big that it is not going to go away. the u.k. parliament has not come to grips with this. they do like the idea of prime minister may holding talks with jeremy corbyn. way this deal gets to the finish line is with a cross party deal. brussels likes that. solution, welear will get that in the political declaration and days. though the parliament has taken a million votes and nothing ever passes, people in brussels think there is a possibility that something at the last second will pass and the no deal brexit can still be avoided? >> exactly.
there are two camps. come the french, they are tough on the brits. what i hear is they say time is up. is not able to answer fundamental questions about the relationship with the eu. they say this is about a different generation. the eu needs to focus on other things. the other campus led by the germans. they fear disruptions could be significant. they tell you we have to try to get this deal. ultimately the question they will have to ask is do we want on the, to unleash chaos 27 members? probably not. so they will probably accept an extension, but there will be conditions with that. that is another hurdle for the prime minister. >> thank you for that.
he joins us from washington. thank you for joining us. what doesommentary, it mean for the ico's out there? securities or will this make life difficult for issuers? >> when i read a document like this, i read the footnotes. it must be my legal training. the first footnote says, this is not a rule. this is not a regulation. this is not a case. it does not supersede any existing rule. it is our view. language says the commission has neither approved or disapproved the content. it is a memorandum that reminds me of something a law firm might give its client if a client asked for general guidance on
whether an ico was a security offering. i don't think it changes the law in any meaningful way. it does have some impacts. >> can you talk about that impact. path of how the coins can be used. that seems to be why this was approved. what the implications? >> the framework for the no action letter? >> the framework. begins it does is it with saying something a lawyer might say to a client. you need to worry about u.s. federal securities laws if you're doing an ico. if you're thinking about u.s. special security laws and digital token, you need to consider whether it is an investment contract. under u.s. law for more than ,alf a century, there is a test
a three-part test, and if there is an investment of money in a common enterprise with the expectation of profit solely -- ithe efforts of others am paraphrasing -- then you have an investment contract and you have to file with the sec or file an exemption. what this framework does is it walks through essentially -- it doesn't walk through the case law, but walks through that analysis in a very mechanical sense, trying to apply it to digital tokens. one of these stated benefits of blockchain technology is the notion of decentralization. this looks at things that might sec to view something as potentially decentralized enough to not be a security under the test. >> that was something we saw applied already.
whether itsted in has killed off ico's. when people are coming to you to to do an ico,- are they trying to be regulated, securities, or trying to avoid it? >> more so now than two years ago. two years ago, they would have an idea that it would be nice to help a four a farm in british columbia, so they would sell points. the probably be the farm did not exist yet. there was no technology. what they were planning on doing was raising money to sell a token, then hopefully 10x or 100x of tokens on an exchange. you have conversations where if we wanted to
follow security laws, why would we do and ico? what is interesting is the same day this framework was issued, the sec issued a response to a no action letter requests, dealing with something called turnkey jet. in that particular instance, the -- to a nothat action request in the case of an ico. together, theese sec in this case has indicated what it will take potentially for something to be on the one hand the digital token using an ico model, at the same time not investment contract. >> basically not being able to trade them at all. some significant limitations. thank you. thea quick check of business flash headlines. is promising there
to cut costs. the bank plans to ramp up investments in his digital business. bloomberg spoke with santander. >> we will spend several billion on technology and digital. it is about $5 billion total per year. of that, $2 billion is in digital. to run the bank and transform the bank versus investments for the future is quite a healthy ratio. jobsndreds of thousands of on wall street have disappeared since the financial crash. some of the big banks are still cutting him a but some are adding. 802,000 positions were limited by 16 of the largest banks. since then, 76,000 new jobs have been created. several banks have reversed also all their cuts. that is your business flash update. lyftming up, shares for
>> the house judiciary committee approved subpoenas for special counsel robert mueller's full russia report as democrats pressure the justice department to release the document without redaction. last week, the attorney general wrote he would send congress a redacted version by mid april, if not sooner. >> this committee requires the full report and the underlying materials because it is our job, not the attorney general's, to determine whether president
trump has abused his office. we require the report because one day one way or the other the country will move on from president trump. we must make it harder for future presidents to behave in this way. we need a full accounting of the president's actions to do that work. had given therats attorney general until yesterday to provide the full mueller report to congress. the justice department ignored that deadline. joe biden is a technology his past behavior with women has made some uncomfortable. todayeased a statement following complaints over the past week that he touched some women without their consent. in a video posted today on twitter, joe biden says social norms have shifted and the boundaries of protecting personal space have been reset. he added, i will be more mindful about respecting personal space in the future. the trade deal the u.s. and china are crafting would give
china until 2025 to fulfill its quotas. under the proposed agreement, china would buy more u.s. commodities, including soybeans allowergy products, and 100% foreign ownership for u.s. companies operating in china. the limited timeframe is raising questions about how much a deal would reshape the longer-term economic relationship. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. another facebook fiasco. ofearchers found millions users data accessible on amazon's cloud computer services. this comes after the social media giant came under fire for the cambridge analytical scandal. for more, let's go to emily chang from san francisco.
seemed to be hidden on amazon servers in plain sight. that it has been to lose. this is another situation where facebook user data was in a place where it should not have in. they found troves of data publicly available on an amazon server. these researchers also found a mexican media company that had 540 million different users, their data, exposed, email addresses, names and contact information. in a third situation, and apps developer had exposed 22,000 usernames, passwords as well, and all of this basically hiding in plain sight. >> what does this say about -- what do we know now? more of these
databases out there that people have been discovered on public servers like this? >> we have no idea how many different places user data could be exposed. it was facebook's policy to allow the access to user data. facebook has certain rules the third parties would have to agree to to protect that data, but there is no guarantee those parties would follow the rule. cambridge analytical went on to share that data with the trump campaign. in this situation involving amazon, facebook worked with amazon to take that data down. facebook said that facebook's policies prohibit storing facebook information in a public database. we worked with amazon to take down the databases and are committed to working with developers to protect people's data. it is because of cambridge analytica that facebook
launched an investigation. facebook information. given that facebook had this policy for many years, it is impossible to know how many different third parties had access to this eight at, and where that data -- this data, and where that data could be now. >> thank you. turning to a surge in demand for a newly public company, lyft, has made it the most expensive that in the equity markets to short it. lyft has been public for four days. it is the most expensive stock too short. receptionten a chilly , at least after the ipo. what is the message for these other unicorns waiting in the wings? >> i think they are a little scared. was supposed to be the first in this big stampede of
unicorns startups that were going to come out. we are still expecting to see t r, pinterest, and peleton, but the early reception to lyft is not what people were hoping for. >> they were talking about not , but ae pent-up demand lot of insiders have not sold their shares enough to short the stock. unicorn see these companies where you have shareholders who have been in the company for so long, will that exacerbate the situation? why not just get out right now? >> a lot of them can't get out right now. expire, thatups will be another can of worms that will open up. dayerday was only the first that they could borrow for some
of the shorts. this is just the beginning. >> there are some lessons to be learned. some criticism of lyft is that very little has floated. there is a limited amount to some extent. out pre-ipo.ld are there any recipes that will be taken away from this that will not be replicated? >> certainly the point of founder control, the two founders have majority control using super voting stock, which has been afforded to facebook and google, but the story of snap has not worked out so well as a public company where the ceo has such tremendous power. uber does not use this structure
anymore. you are normally based in san francisco, but tell us about the overall. me and a lote like of people in san francisco, there is a fear of what will happen to the city when thousands of new millionaires are minted at the end of this year. there does seem to be a little bit, you can see it in their rush to the ipo market, a sense that now is the time to party or maybe it is last call at the bar and everybody wants to get out. of very little activity in the ipo market, snapped was the last big ipo before lyft two years ago. now all the excitement is happening. i want to turn to some
breaking news. selling offn brands a huge portfolio of wines and spirits, saying it will raise $1.7 billion selling about 30 brands. it does not list the brands here, but the share reaction is deathly negative. the company expecting to get $1.7 billion selling 30 of its brands. >> coming up, why cut it going patagonia -- this is bloomberg. ♪
>> terminal users are reading about ubs evaluating options for its management unit, including a partial sale. it is looking to acquire deutsche bank's asset manager. the firstreporting black openly gay woman has been elected mayor of chicago. bloomberg.com has a story on patagonia cracking down on the corporate logo vests. it once to add more businesses that meet environmental transparency. existing corporate clients will remain the program. >> i don't understand this.
have my bloomberg san francisco one. you can see. >> there we go. that is what it has all about. >> we already have our orders in. >> i don't have one of these. >> are you not a bro? , is thatdtown uniform what it is called? i wonder if there will be a swift backlash. now no one will wear them at all and people will turn anti-patagonia, even the companies that have ordered. do they want to do business with the company? >> there are about 100 other companies that make vests. >> they will live. do is makemight
everyone decide they want to align themselves with more environmentally friendly policies. >> time for smart charts come the latest analysis from the top technicians. joining me to talk about stocks, david keller. great to have you. you were nervous and cautious after that selling action. now you are quite bullish, certainly constructive. let's look at your s&p 500 chart. sayne of my mentors used to the most bullish thing the market can do is go up. that is what we have seen here. you just look at the trend with the s&p 500, a consistent pattern of higher highs, higher lows. we have broken through that key resistance level. what is most interesting is the leadership. , buts been technology semiconductors are really
outperforming. horizon,s i see on the this is the percent of stocks in the index that are overbought at any one point. it means the momentum has been high. , thatpeak in the s&p reading is lower and lower, suggesting less and less stocks are pushing it up there, speaking to narrow leadership. rsi on the s&p 500 itself just nearing the overbought level. thingssetwo -- those two say there might not be further room to run on the trend. >> one analyst doesn't like when we see lower highs in and since february, slightly lower highs on that rsi, but large cap outperforming small cap. >> one other issue is the general breadth of the market. others,ook at some
mid-cap, small cap, and microcap are showing this pattern. we see lower highs and lower lows, more of a corrective posture. that combination tells me if the market was going to run, you would want groups like this to really emerge and be leaders. we have not seen that yet. it has been underperforming. until we see small caps emerge, tells me to be more cautious. >> finally come of this has been the leading sector. you think there could be a viable pullback coming. >> most institutional money managers that use quantitative research have a momentum factor, the one-year returns minus the one-month returns. essentially a market that has had a strong one year, which and you areve, looking at a pullback to buy on
weakness. the moving average convergence divergence indicator shows the market has gone higher. slopingthe xlu, downwards, so the trend lessening a bit. that configuration speaks to a corrective pattern in the next three to four weeks. this could be an interesting and compelling pullback in april, which is usually seasonally strong for stocks. we get to make a october, which is weaker and utilities could emerge as a good place to be. >> i stand corrected. you are a little cautious. you think utilities as a defensive sector could go lower. on technology, that is what is bringing us higher. the financials have been under pressure. the that the another rate sensitive sector? >> absolutely. to your point, the most important thing is to watch the price. as technology puts in higher highs and higher lows, it is hard to imagine getting too
broadcasting across the eu in the event of a no deal brexit. a stunning forecast on amazon, jeffries expects the stock to double over the next two years. it says amaued and its growth opportunities are underappreciated. that is your business flash update. >> starbucks growing in china, but china growing by leaps and bounds as it races to become the global economic powerhouse. david westin set down with kevin johnson. take a listen. can do that for decades to come. i haven't calculated, but it will go beyond my lifetime. >> the demand is there? >> the demand continues to grow. the chinese consumers are primarily a tea drinking culture who have been introduced to premium a replica coffee. arabica coffee.
there are three million people in china in the middle class. that is expected to double over the next few years. they are consuming more coffee. that will continue to grow. wer the next three years will build starbucks into 100 new cities in china that we are not currently in. every one of those cities is larger than the population of be angeles, so we will building new stores in china for decades to come. don't miss the full interview later tonight on bloomberg big decisions. let's continue t cveheonnrsatio on the chinese consumer. , 300 millions
middle-class in china, set to double in a decade. 100 cities bigger than los angeles. healthy andstill spending up there, the consumer. add to that the fact we will see $300 billion worth of tax cuts announced at the npc. these are people can actually spend money. that filtering through the economy with positive data out of the chinese economy. as you have more optimistic views about the economy, you will get competition. >> everybody knows the same thing. it is exciting that the chinese consumer grow so much, but everyone has recognized that,
including many domestic chinese companies. about onetalking chinese coffee brand. in 2017 and have more than 600 stores already in china. i think coca-cola also bought a new entrant to the market, so everybody is piling on. entryhink the barrier for for making coffee would be pretty low. musicews about tencent and the idea they have too much market power? they are seeing reports might be under antitrust investigations by chinese regulators. allnow they have performed their competitors, including spotify, china literature, so now we are hearing they could be investigated for antitrust concerns. stock.s do like the six buys, six holes. j.p. morgan a couple of months
ago put the stock in overweight territory was saying they are the most profitable online music platform and that they are under monetized. >> we are about to see a major offering coming from a related entity to tencent music. >> tencent group holdings is a $6 billion bond offering, the largest in asia. this is not too surprising given also havehat they some $3 billion of bonds maturing. also, the fact that they don't need this funding. it is more of a procedural thing. they have $20 billion of cash on hand. this would set the record in asia this year. the previous one was another grandee company, ever gran
group. it is an investment grade quality bond sale. , this yeare especially, so they are looking at it closely. theake hay while sunshine's, and it is shining right now. thank you. you don't want to miss this, chargesk and the sec on over his tweets. >> i will be watching jobless claims that 8:30 a.m. >> constellation brands reports earnings before the bell. >> that is all for "what'd you miss?" >> bloomberg technology is next. >> have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ want more from your entertainment experience?
just say teach me more. into your xfinity voice remote to discover all sorts of tips and tricks in x1. can i find my wifi password? just ask. [ ding ] show me my wifi password. hey now! [ ding ] you can even troubleshoot, learn new voice commands and much more. clean my daughter's room. [ ding ] oh, it won't do that. welp, someone should. just say "teach me more" into your voice remote and see how you can have an even better x1 experience. simple. easy. awesome.
♪ emily: i am emily change in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, data on millions of facebook users publicly exposed on amazon's cloud servers. we will speak with the cybersecurity from the discovered it. as we wait for tesla's first-quarter numbers, we look at how the carmaker can turn things up in 2019 despite the controversie