tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg April 5, 2019 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
left in the european trading day. vonnie: this is "the european close" on bloomberg markets. guy: i am stunned. volume is light on both sides of the atlantic. you would have thought that after such a goldilocks payroll number that we would see things picking up. volume is down on the s&p and stoxx 600. both markets are going nowhere in a hurry. stock 600 is up .2%. a little bit of weakness in the pound is helping out the ftse 100 as theresa may requested a shorter extent extension. one of the reasons why european stocks have had a good week is the auto sector up by 7% and is back in the bull market. this is incredible and worth noting in the light of what we heard from the president of the united states. carsagain, focusing in on being the weapon of choice in diplomatics
overtures that he is making to other countries. cars are rallying right now. vonnie: here in the u.s. also watching a tremendous amount of movement, but nothing worrying after a positive job report. up .3%.he s&p 500 is marathon and some of those companies are leading the gains and individual movers like align technology, the teeth company doing well today. the dow is up at 10%. the trade talks are not doing much either with the president saying we are not close to a deal on china. the 10 year yield little bit of movement higher with the yield back down to 2.49 and is back up to 2.50. the dollar index moving on store -- sterling is up point 1% and chain -- and trading at 97.48.
if a quick look at gmm in a moment and we will get more of the jobs report. guy: 190 six, a decent number. -- 196, a decent number. 196,000 workers. of thele, the president united states once again calling for the fed to add more stimulus. >> the fed should drop rates. i think they really slowed us down. there is no inflation. i would say, in terms of quantitative tightening, it should be quantitative easing. guy: the president talking early on on his way to california. joining us with more, carl. and, george buckley. i want to start with you. 196 sounds like above potential number. why would the fed be cutting rates? carl: that is a good question.
if the fed is cutting rates and economy was going above trend, and inflation is moving sideways. and wage inflation, march was a little bit off of the peak, the broader trend is accelerating. the fed it could risk throwing gasoline onto a campfire and creating some sort of economic flareup or a flareup in financial stability concerns later this year. if we look at where the s&p is, it is not far off of the peak from last year. this is not the right environment for the fed to be cutting rates. we need to keep their ear to the markets and the yield curve. and, be prepared that maybe that would be warranted down the road and it does not look like the case based on what we are seeing. lost,: manufacturing retail lost, and we had wage gains that were up but not up to
expectations. there are things for the fed to be concerned about still? carl: this report is good enough. the main question after the stumble was has something gone wrong and are things starting to fall apart? there was no evidence since that february report that labor conditions were deteriorating and march tells us that it was just a fluke and we are back on track, and things are fine. but thingsoaring, are good enough. it was a soft patch from december to february, but things are starting to firm. the weakness in manufacturing as a reminder that we had a big overhang develop in the back half of last year that will be work off. corrections tend to depress factory sector output and hiring. this will pass. it is a transitory development and i think we are on course for growth to be not in line with
what the fed is looking for, but something north of that. my team forecasts 2.4% growth and the unemployment rate moving into mid 3% territory. we may be the only ones looking wage pressures will drive consumer inflation and make the fed realized that their next move will not be a cut. guy: carl painting a positive picture. these numbers do not feel like a recessionary number. the u.s. economy still looks like it is pounding on. this does not feel like we have a recession soon. george: it does not, and i guess people are looking at wage numbers which are lower. 3.2% has come from 3.4. the unemployment rate is erexceptional below and low then where the librium test equilibrium is.
all of that points to the fact that things are looking good for the u.s. at the moment. guy: the president of the united states is having a pop at the fed. is the fed engineering a soft landing. george: the president would love interest rates to be lower. i am sure that the economic environment would suit that. we think the risks are on the upside. we do not have any forecast for a hike in interest rates over the next couple of years in our view, but the risks are still tilted towards the upside. there are a lot of support from the public finances in terms of fiscal support. and, the economy is doing reasonably well. jobs are being created, and that is good for consumers and household spending. that is where a bulk of the economy is. senate they need confirmation, but president trump has nominated two of his own to the fed board. herman cain being the latest. he has served on the kansas city
fed, so he is aware of what goes on in the federal reserve's meetings. get happens if both of them confirmed, which again is a question mark? carl: it adds to the cacophony. we will hear more dissent, we have had not heard dissent under jay powell. i think that first dissent will come from either stephen moore or hermann came if they survived the confirmation prices. some moderate republicans have expressed concerns. an advocate for returning to the gold standard so there are some questions about the economic policies of both moore and kane. vonnie: i'm and ask you something similar. do we get a change of effectiveness -- economic policy if we get a different shaped federal reserve? possibility, i a think the most important thing is to focus on the flow.
there are risks from around the world that might influence a lot of the data which the fed looks at on a month-to-month basis. if you get or sought -- or start to see softer payrolls, they will be more important. that said, the president could put someone in place who is a lot more dovish and would support his view and reflect his view more closely. i think the data will be the important thing. guy: we will talk about europe in more detail. but given the fact that the u.s. economy is looking good right now, how does that change the narrative? i do not dig into the details, but i wonder about a compare and contrast. there is a gravitational effects and which is exhibiting a stronger gravitational effect? area provides a
lot of trade to the u.s., but how -- who knows how that will change when some of the trade policies change. whatever happens in the u.s. has a huge impact on europe. the question then is if that has a big enough impact on the upside that the fed has to raise interest rates and that will have an impact on currency, on global monetary policy, which will also feed into the ecb's decision making progress. -- process. just one month ago, they surprise the market considerably by loosening policy. guy: one final question to you. numbers plugged in any about what would happen if the president shut down the mexican border? carl: this would have huge consequences. we do not know what shut down the border means, just immigration, or other cross-border flow of goods and services?
if we shut down the goods sector are, it is not just a 35 increase in avocado prices, that will be the least of our concern. this would have devastating consequences for autos and manufacturing more broadly in a short order of time. .3% getting lopped off of the gd numbers. guy: thank you very much indeed. george will stick with us. vonnie: let us get a check on the first word news. here is courtney donohoe. julie: -- taylor: -- president trump will bill -- visit the border wall which will -- courtney: the president said that he would close the border if mexico did not stem the flow of immigrants as we were talking about. he has backed off that position by yesterday. the u.s. and china say that there has been progress in talks to end the trade war.
the president of china is pushing for rapid conclusion and president trump is talking about a "monumental agreement." the vice premier met with the president yesterday and he said that the two sides have reached consistence -- consensus. canada putting pressure on the u.s. to end tariffs on steel and aluminum and fronting to hold up a replacement trading for nafta. the u.s., canada, and mexico signed a trade deal, but lawmakers need to ratify it in time is running out in canada for the next election. ecuador plans to expel julian assange from its embassy in london within days. according to wikileaks, there is an agreement. assange has been holed up and just eight -- in the embassy since 2012. has been out of the u.s. since wikileaks published confidential
documents. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at "tictoc" on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. getting suntrust are antitrust approval. that headline out from the ftc. both stocks are improving. sti is still down .2%. by .2%. we are seeing stocks rise, and not a whole lot. the dow up .10%. the s&p 500 .4%. up .5%.aq is the winner the best performer is in the nasdaq 500, align technology, henry schein companies. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i am gone johnson -- i'm guy johnson. vonnie? vonnie: global markets rallying in the u.s.. let us get to abigail doolittle. not a huge amount of movement. upgail: take a look at that, 1/10 -- .1%. held back by the small-cap russell 2000. it is doing well at .8%. the dax up a little bit up .3%. all of these indexes higher on the week. the dow and the dax up seven days in a row. we have emerging markets climbing as well. this as we have that goldilocks andrt plus president trump,
let us look at the 10 year yield. an interesting action. prior to the jobs report we did have bonds pulling back a bit. investors thinking that that will help the federal reserve stay on this course, and president trump saying that he thinks the fed should cut rates and stop shrinking the balance sheet. we see yields falling on the action. let us take a look at the dow. this stock dragging on the dow jones industrial average. it is its first day as a publicly trading company and it spun out from dupont. jp morgan putting and underweight on that. energy helped out by oil and helping with petri -- bp trading in london. we have been watching the new zealand dollar. 2.7ne-day chart down percent and falling below the 200 day moving average. this is when the reserve bank
indicated the possibility of a rate cut joining the chorus of tanks that are more dovish. that caused the currency to go down. guy: seems to be a theme running around the world. certainly, one that is affecting the u.k.. george buckley is the chief economist at nomura. let us go over the brexit story. what we have had is donald tusk in brussels say, the u.k. can have a one-year extension, and oncesa may only once a -- an extension until june. is the risk that we get a series of rolling cliff edges? if i am a company, that encourages me not to invest and keep the big inventory that i have sitting in my warehouse there, which locks up working capital. george: a rolling deadline is what the european commission and union want to avoid.
this is what they are suggesting, have a year and make sure you have the right decision. making the worst of the time you have available, even if it is an extension, it ends when it is completed, i am not surprised that it could -- that if it took all the time towards the end of the process. simply, you have more time and they will make that work. the problem is investment. long an12 months is not extension for investment decisions. the risk is that you get the next nine months of firms sitting on their hands and not knowing what to do, and not investing. 40% the market is pricing a chance of a bank of england rate hike. -- does that number change? george: i think it brings the bank back into play,
potentially. at the moment the problem we are seeing is that all of the uncertainty generated by the brexit process will eventually feed into the data, and we see higher manufacturing output and manufacturing building. i am not sure that will continue over another nine to 12 months. i think the risk is that investment uncertainty shows up in the data which prevents the back of -- the bank of england from raising rates. i think we might get a deals at some point sooner which would bring the bank back into play. vonnie: after so long with very little starting volatility, we are getting it. starting down half a percent earlier in the week, and the prospect of an agreement. we were at 130 point 06. 130.06. been -- have you changed your sterling forecast? george: we say that sterling has been stable.
isalmost feels like sterling waiting for something to happen either way, with her that be a no deal which we think is much less likely now, or a deal, in which case one thing you can say is that sterling will not end in the next year or year and a half at the level where it is now. it will move to reflect whatever happens in the process. vonnie: what about the euro? it is treated -- trading at 112.11, and more countries are having to downgrade. the latest bank to do that is ireland. france, germany are potentially in a recession. george: if you look at the euro area rates curve, it is exceptionally flat. the markets are not forecasting a pricing in any move. stillt, they are
forecasting or expecting the possibility, a small possibility of a rate cut and that is fairly unlikely that the ecb may do something else to support the economy. at the moment, nothing is priced in and that is having a sizable effect on sentiment. ay: what happens if we get of the negative rates? how much will that affect the story of the european economy? that be a reason to sell the euro? george: i do not think they will go down that route. i imagine we will hear more about that, maybe not direct from the president and his opening remarks, but something a. the queue -- q& it can be complicated and it is not obvious that it has worked. i think what they are doing might be a lot more supportive of banks and -- then tiering.
of: looking at the ecb view brexit, how easy is it to figure out exactly what is going on in the german economy? how much of it is brexit, and how much of it is china story and what is going on with the china data. this goes to back what is happening in the states. how is just how easy is it to separated? all i hear -- two separate it? all i hear is that exports are down. george: if you look at the rate of growth, the annual rate of growth from china to germany has fallen by 20%. which look at that by 3%, merchant exports from china to germany as -- our worth and you get a number up around .5%. that is just china. impact onina has an surrounding countries in asia,
and asia has an impact on the u.s.. all of a sudden you are looking at a global picture for a country exposed in terms of global trade. exposed inthe most the entirety of europe. you get a slowing in china and it has a knock on effect. when you look at the pmi surveys you see a huge divergence between what happened on the manufacturing side which is reflective of international trade, and you have a stronger picture from the domestic side, not unreasonably because we have wage growth rising and unemployment falling below the equilibrium levels. things are looking better for the domestic side of the economy. vonnie: george buckley, we have to leave it there. thank you for joining. european close 10 minutes away from new york and london. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: in new york, i am vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i am guy johnson. this is the european close. markets,hose european not that amazing considering how solid that payroll number was. ftse is up more than more -- more than most with .7%. the pound is down. the dax and cac's are not going anywhere. the real story has been the european auto sector there and it has been the far and away the far andand it has been away the best performing sector. the european close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
the only bright spot looks to be what is happening in london. that is the only major market trading significantly higher. that is because the pound is a little bit lower. let's take that one out of the picture. 74.59 you cang back out some of those gains because of what is happening with the pound. , the cac 40 in the dax are not doing a great deal today. in terms of some of the stocks we have been watching, not a lot of movement. markets, not a lot going on. let's take a look at some of the individual names. let's get an idea of what is going on. the banks are in focus. dws cutting jobs. the stock is down 1.15%. that is an asset manager, that is one of europe's biggest banks. can you cut your way to topline growth.
that is the question the market is trying to figure out. the answer when it comes to socgen is no. bmw up. tesla has been the big story in the united states. the european auto sector has been on a charge. it is back in a bull market. the european auto sector is in a bull market. that is incredible news. you can see this on the function on your bloomberg that the european auto sector is the best performing sector. this is set up for the last five days. look at that. european autos up 7% over the last five days. that is pretty impressive, particularly as the president in the united states keeps talking about the auto sector as a weapon of choice when dealing with the international issues he faces. our european autos next? judging by the reaction, not so much. look at the china effect.
the banks of also had a good week. of 5%. the u.s. banks have been on a real tear of late. that is look the european close. vonnie, over to you. vonnie: of nine points on the s&p 500. if we were to gain another nine points are 10 points, we would be at 28.90 -- at 2890. the dow jones industrial average is up .1%, 25 points. oil companies moving. align technology is having a great day and bed bath & beyond. nothing to write home about. 2.50enure yield at following the jobs report and the dollar index is stronger. weaker sterling. gmm and have a look at some of the commodities. soybeans down 1%. china continues to buy soybeans.
majoratural gas having a day today, up 15%. we mentioned some of those currencies, the mexican peso stronger today on the potential for -- who knows why the mexican peso is stronger. the president is headed to the border so you can imagine it might be weaker if there are threats to trade. not the case. we shall discover why. guy: apparently norway is having issues producing that gas. let's talk about the banks. they are the second-best performing sector this week in europe. it is certainly a subject of attention at the moment, what will happen next with the european banking space. we've been speaking to people about it, including a professor who choose bloomberg from the shores of lake cuomo.
he says it makes more sense for commerzbank to be bought by unicredit then deutsche bank. >> we want to have transnational banks in europe. we think the merger would be a terrible idea. unicredit has done a lot to improve and is much more efficient. merging commerzbank in deutsche two sick man and hoping they become one healthy one. , bloombergg us now senior editor for finance. we will see this combination, healthy or otherwise, big discussion. deutsche bank and commerzbank getting together. what will we learn on monday morning? leaks oversee what the course of the next two days. one of the interesting things is that what seems to be the ceo's of each respective bank, certainly on the commerzbank side, they are pushing back
against not only skepticism among policymakers, among alsossors, but there is skepticism within the ranks of the banks themselves. the ceo of commerzbank for the second time in a week issued a why explaining the reasons a merger made sense. his audience was internal, not external. it comes on a day we are seeing french banks back the idea of cross-border mergers. is there a potential for a bank from a different country to come in? that is one of the reason our sources speculate the finance ministry in germany pushed for this combination -- has pushed for this combination for so long to try to ensure
commerzbank is not bought by anon german bank. they talk a lot about national champions. there are a lot of reasons why it makes sense but structural reasons why it does not make sense. the regulatory structure, the capital rules in the eu make it difficult and expensive for cross-border combinations to happen between banks. guy: despite the politicians desire to have this banking put into place, which we see stand evidence for -- james: politicians except the german politicians -- you need euro wide deposit insurance. german tax players do not want to ensure greek tax players. went all of this gets done and the italy bank problem goes away, what does europe's banking system look like?
we do not know whether these problems go away. there is potentially an umbrella solution to this problem that keeps popping up. james: it is an interesting thing. in europe the view toward banks -- there is a school of thought among european policy makers that banks should be little more than utilities, like power companies. european banks are less profitable than american banks. states, there is a much more freewheeling capitalism. banks are not as tightly regulated as they are in europe. i think that is a big part of what you are seeing. once you get these problems, you always get new problems popping up when the old problems are solved, but in europe there is a real pressure from on high to restrain banks growth and profitability.
whatever you do, you will have issues. guy: let's talk about stocks -- big job cuts in paris and around the world. the question i think the market is trying to figure out is can europe's banking sector cut its way to profitability? is there an indication the market does not believe the revenue line or the profitability line can look better? james: the knee-jerk reaction job shareholders is you do cuts and stocks go up. this suggests there are problems beyond the p&l. .anagement shakeups the ceo has been there for a long time and still has got to this point where they are back at square one in terms of coming up with a growth strategy. there may be greater issues than
what you see on the p&l. thank you very much indeed. james hertling. $1 trillionay's sovereign wealth fund is getting the go-ahead because the emerging markets government and corporate bonds. the move is part of an overhaul of the funds $310 billion in fixed income holding. oslo.porter joins us from it has soured on emerging markets. why is that? >> it is not a critique of the emerging-market countries as such but it is a decision that reflects the global reach of the fund. the funds managers argue it makes little sense for them to own bonds all over the world, which are becoming more and more closely correlated in an era of loose monetary policy. it also owns massive amounts of stocks, so it takes that
currency risk all over the world and it does not want to duplicate that in its own portfolio. guy: there was some suggestion the fund would only focus on the dollar, the euro, and the pound. that has not happened. why did not go that far? >> this was the proposal for the fund. that is what it wanted to do. the government has been looking at this issue for more than a year. put reins on the funds in order to be able to benchmark its portfolio more broadly so it can monitor how the funds manager are doing. it is keeping a lot of the big developed market currencies, including the australian dollar, the canadian dollar, the swedish krona, it was kind of a step too far for the finance ministry, which are conservative in how they oversee the fund. vonnie: it also released a bunch of other information, the
government that is, on what is going on with the fund. what else can you tell us about what norway is doing? -- >> a key decision is it will now allow the fund to invest in infrastructure, as much as 2% of the fund will go into that. that is into things like wind energy, solar energy, hydropower and things like that. it also decided to cut -- to tighten its coal criteria, which has been cheered by environmental activists. it has a loophole that allowed investment in big coal producers. now will probably have to divest another $4.2 billion in coal company stock. that is an companies like glencore.
guy: what happens in norway and its strategy versus what happens in saudi arabia. is it a usable comparison? >> saudi arabia has a huge investment in saudi aramco and are building that and want to incorporate that. what norway is trying to do is take all of their oil wealth and put it in a fund and basically shield it off from the country outside. we saw that in a decision earlier this year when it decided to also divest some of the upstream oil companies. reluctant, butis
a majority of the norwegian people are seeing more and more sense in giving the fund greater and greater environmental mandates, cutting coal investments, fossil fuels, investing in renewable energy. the wheels turn slowly in norway so i do not think we will see a lot more steps from the fund in the coming years. in termsa banner day of shifting focus on the fund with all of the different news we saw coming out. i would say the wheels turn fast in norway judging by the number of teslas i've seen their. thank you very much. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: the latest jobs report may relieve concerns about a
cooling economy. hiring rebound more than forecast in march. employers added 196,000 workers. jobless rates unchanged. february's payroll numbers were revised upward. potential presidential candidate joe biden is making his first public experience since several women made complaints about his behavior. the former vice president is speaking to the electrical workers union in washington. in a video released yesterday, joe biden says he understands the boundaries of protecting personal space has been reset. say the controversy is not slow down campaign planning. a lawyer from one of new york's best-known firms will become the second defendant to plead guilty in the collagen medicines stamp. caplan is ite -- a paid to boost his daughters college board scores. in turkey tensions high among opposition supporters ahead of a
recount. ersident aragon -- president dogan's -- one of his most serial -- one of his most serious electoral setbacks in years. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. thank you very much. the wiki is done when it comes to the european equity story. moves see move slower -- lower. given the volume today and given the fact that markets have not delivered as big of gains, these are massive moons -- massive moves but it has taken down the ftse 100 a notch. if you want to follow what happens in these market, do not forget to tune in to tune into the cable show at the top of the hour. jonathan ferro is in new york. i will be joining him in london.
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. david: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. lower 1.2%ntel are after a downgrade from wells fargo which cited weakness in semiconductor demand. joining us with more is taylor riggs. taylor: very big dichotomy. this is why the story was so interesting. we have been reporting record highs on the stocks index for the last two days but you are starting to see weakness in some
of the individual names. intel, wells fargo said on the macro side they are seeing demand for chips, and the prices for the chips as you go into the terminal at gtv , the prices are falling. we have not seen them bottoming out yet. that is one of the problems even if the stox index keeps rising. we got positive commentary from some of the other chipmakers. we have not seen that yet. intel,micro side with you are getting some concern about a fierce battle with amd and they are losing market share to advanced micro devices. as you can see from the chart, you just had a massive run-up today. some of these stocks have gotten ahead of these selves little bit with the sox index up 30%.
micron is where we were starting to see weakness in chipmakers. micron was downgraded by morgan stanley and set the market had gotten too optimistic. samsung yesterday had the biggest profit miss by -- in more than four years on weakness. we are starting to see some weakness here. guy: earnings season starts next week. what are we expecting? vonnie: this is interesting -- taylor: this is interesting. we have another chart showing the sox index. it is the first time earnings revision are starting to look lower and the sox index is getting ahead of itself. earnings are near bottom for this year. drop, a samsung profit little bit. we wonder if we start to hear from earnings, particularly with these companies and intel, how
that keeps up with a run-up in the share price. vonnie: taylor riggs with our stock of the hour. thank you very much. intel. coming up, our global battle of the charts. we are past march madness at --s point but do check out that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the biggest week in television is almost here.
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guy: time for our global battle of the charts. we span the continent today in the united states. you can find these charts at gtv on your bloomberg. got?dlow, what if you ed: the philadelphia semiconductor index at a record high, the blue line. what this chart does is raise the question what happened next for big tech.
the v-shaped recovery. we have that route from october last year. have not seen that count of route since 2010. 32% gain from december lows until now. on wednesday, we just reach that october high, but not on a closing basis. you can see the blue line, the philadelphia semiconductor index , semiconductors leading that. looking back to the fourth quarter, september, we saw those lower highs from the stocks. that is a warning. even if tech was rising, right before the drop we got the lower highs. concerns about global slowdown. concerns about trade wars. what i'm saying is look at the sox. it is the leading indicator for tech. continues to be that leading indicator, what does that mean for tech more broadly? 100 do days it took to reverse -- 100 into -- 102 days it took to reverse that route.
i'm keeping my eye on the sox. guy: got to keep your eye on the sox. thank you very much indeed. vonnie quinn? vonnie: i thought we should talk about the jini coefficient. one thing we did not get to talk about was the ray dalio letter. ray dalio writing a very important letter echoing what jamie dimon was saying. jiniis a chart of the coefficient. zero would be perfect equality and 100 is perfect inequality. the u.s. is rising. we are at 40.2 in the u.s.. ray dalio backing up some of what jamie dimon said. a couple of the points ray dalio makes is that men are earning the -- men earning the least in the u.s. are likely to die 10 years younger than those earning the most. , the top 40% is earning so much more than the bottom 60% in the united states. most people saying
do not even have $400 in savings in case everything comes up -- anything comes up out of the blue. that is a good visual representation of what is going on in the united states. you can see that on the bloomberg at gtv . guy: vonnie quinn wins hands-down today. this is a subject we have not talked about. taking politics one way and the president going the other way. leaders fill in the gap. i'm sure will be talking more about that. balance of coming up with david westin. newlys guests include announced presidential candidate tim ryan, a democrat from ohio. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
westin. of power" oralance the world politics meets the world of business. kevin cirilli is in washington with roundup of the stories. the jobs numbers, which were encouraging, came out and president trump said he thought we should still cut rates. >> look at what he said. -- lookure drop rates at what he said. >> the fed should drop rates. they slowed us down. in terms of quantitative tightening, it should now be quantitative easing. david: i guess he is not satisfied. he was complaining when the job numbers were weeks, now 196,000 is not enough good guy: the unemployment rate unchanged, the president still criticizing the central bank. for his part, yes nominated herman cain to the fed board and stephen moore. he will have two voices should th