tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg April 12, 2019 7:00am-9:00am EDT
-- chevron buys anadarko. plus, jp morgan surging after topping estimates across the board. wells fargo on deck. and the wonderful world of streaming. disney unveils a streaming subscription service for seven dollars as it tries to dominate in a crowded field. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." let's talk about jp morgan . -- welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." let's talk about jp morgan. their outlook also pretty solid. quality and the loan growth was going to be an issue for all banks, so any clarity on that pretty solid. david: this sort of sets the standards, so it will be curious to see more. does this set a higher bar for everyone?
alix: is it the high watermark for banks? they are not going to benefit from the right cycle. david: kind of half-empty. alix: i don't know. nonetheless, jp morgan going to be helping optimism in the equity market, jumping higher exportsronger chinese and money supplies surging in china. we've got the fastest pace since 2016. all of that boosting risk appetite. global growth reflation story. risk on when it comes to europe, selling off in the bond market. crude up 1.5%. you had a megadeal this morning. anadarkogreeing to buy , a giant bet on shale and lng, signaling the future of big oil over the coming decade. chevron's chairman and ceo joins us now.
congratulations on this big deal. walk us through what's this -- through what this means for your permian development asset. about much more than that. anadarko has a great set of assets. chevron has a strong portfolio. but that together and it really is a powerhouse. this will create real value for our shareholders. alix: a big part of that is going to be the permian. guest: and we've got a very come from entry position within permian. the delaware basin is really the core of the permian. this will allow us to bring some of the things we become very good at, factory drilling and surface infrastructure and downstream integration, to a much larger portfolio. two really brings together
very nice assets and makes our permian position even better. david: you've also got deep and gas assets. last time you will recess -- last time you were with us, you are saying permian, permian, permian. does this make for other longer-term gains? guest: permian can sometimes take the air out of the room. we are a global company across many different asset classes. anadarko is a world-class company with terrific assets. we have a highly couple meant to position in the gulf of mexico in deep water, and they've got a really nice elegy position in mozambique which will complement investments we've made in australia to help us grow our lng portfolio. so you're not going to sell lng in mozambique? guest: we like their project.
got a world-class team of people working on this, and we are very excited about it. alix: what are you not going to do that you did in australia? what did you learn from that? it is a very different development approach. our engineers have looked at the bidding stage. they are ready for contracts. the preparation work has all been done very well. we will try to follow through on the great momentum that anadarko has established and apply some of the things we learned because our gorgon project we could have done better. we've learned some things from that that we would like to bring to bear. but we do not want to get any way a nice project. david: talk about the corporate finance. why 75% stock? why not all cash? i think that 25% is only about three months of your cash flow.
we think our stock is a good currency, and we think anadarko customers want to continue to be exposed to the oil and gas business. you look at a number of things when you put a deal like this together. a blended offer is what made sense for both companies. alix: your stock is down about 3.5%, presumably because you have to issue some shares. what are you hearing? mike: we haven't had a chance to meet with our shareholders. i'll be doing that later today. it sounds like we are within normal trading patterns. we will talk to shareholders today and spend more time going through the logic of this deal. alix: i'm also curious how this affects your capex. anadarko into it, what does that number become, and what is that due to your capex?
mike: production is an outcome of our activity. capital spending will continue to be very disciplined. chevron laid out a very flat and disciplined view over the next five years. forward guidance hadn't gone there -- hadn't gone that far, but they are very disciplined. both companies have solid sets of projects. they have a disciplined approach to capital. we think we can take $1 billion of spending out of the combined budgets and create synergy, along with cost energies to drive value for shareholders. alix: do you have a target for 2023 when you add anadarko? publicly done't any numbers like that, and we will have to do to work to see what it will look like. we would expect those kind of numbers to reflect that.
david: how sensitive is this to the price of oil? mike: we just announced last month a whole series of forward predictions using a zero dollar price as the basis. we look at this deal through the .ame lens and announced that it is robust. both companies have low breakeven prices, lower than $60. strong portfolios together, to capital out of that and some cost out of that, and i think you will maintain the ability to ride out the low cycle very well. david: another part of this -- alix: another part of this is what you are going to sell. do you have any ideas? to $2015 billion billion.
we need to really study the two portfolios as we bring them together. we tend to not talk about what assets we are going to sell until we have them in the market. we will talk about that more overtime. alix: does this give you an opportunity to get in venezuela? mike: we are not getting into venezuela. it is a really difficult place to work today, and really sad for the venezuelan people. we've been committed to our partners and communities that operate there, and we want to be in venezuela for the long run. most major acquisitions david: most majoravid: acquisitions, if they go sideways, is about culture. to what extent are you confident you can fit together well? mike: we are partners on a number of projects already. we've developed projects in the deepwater gulf of mexico together. i think our cultures are very
complement three. there is a high standard for ethics, a real premium on safety and collaboration. some people on the emergent beak project, they've got a world-class team -- on the mozambique project, they've got a world-class team working on that. we have a good confluence of cultures in this program, along with the assets, which is why we think this is such a terrific deal. alix: the rumor is that someone was going to buy endeavor, so in some ways this is more of a surprise. how competitive was this process? mike: we don't really talk about the details of the process. we look at companies around the world, and every year we screen thousands of companies and narrow that down to ones that we like because we think there is a nice fit. have to wait until you see the right set of circumstances within your company and another to create shareholder value.
alix: so why now? was this the end of the cycle? what was the thought process? mike: we are in a position where we've got really strong financial performance. we are growing cash flow. our balance sheet has the lowest net debt in our industry. anadarko was in a position with this great lng project, and they are looking to create value and assets. so you put the great people of the two companies together and we can do more than either of us could have done individually. david: what about regulatory approvals? i know that typically upstream, there hasn't been as much concern. at some point do you tip over that? mike: i think that is a quick said -- a question for the regulators. we are confident this will get approval. we will go through the process and work with regulators to
ensure they understand the transactions. alix: give me your looking glass for the next 10 years. the question being, how does big oil go? where do you see chevron with this acquisition in the next 10 years? mike: most forecasts would suggest, even forecasts that show significant rehabs gas reductions, the world using more gas than they do today. gas for power generation, and we are investing in other energies as well. in the last few months we've invested in a battery company and an energy storage company, electric vehicle charging, direct air co2 capture. these are not as commercially viable and scaled yet, but we are making investments in these
to learn and try to help them grow, so we invest across a broad range of energies, but the reality is the energy the world uses today and needs to keep the lights on and trains running is something we are good at and do responsibly, and we intend to be one of the best in the world at it tenure from now and well after. alix: done with m&a? done,you never say you're and never is a long time. this is an important deal for us. we are going to be focused on delivering this for now. alix: really appreciate it. thank you for stopping by our studios. chevronh, chairman and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: jp morgan surges in premarket after beating estimates across the board. we welcome now allison williams, bloomberg intelligence senior u.s. banks analyst, and only phone, charles p bardi -- charles peabody. they beat the estimates, but year-over-year they are down in things like fixed income, commodities, and trading. allison: i give ago -- a year ago, fourth quarter was really but they are beating a low bar. beatingthat expectations, but still decline,
i think the key is what we're hearing about in terms of the outlook, the early q2 outlook. are there any signs of hope? we did see key signs of volatility exiting the quarter. it is important for all the banks. but i would say that if you look at the declines across jp morgan , probably about in line with the expectations for citi, who reports monday. david: charles, you have a wonderful spreadsheet where you lay out what you are expecting from all of the banks. are you surprised at the upside here? charles: i am on the revenue side because it was driven by corporate and investment banking. but if you look at results by line of business, the corporate investment bank showed no revenue growth year-over-year and no net income growth year-over-year, and the same with asset management.
david: what about loan growth? charles: that has to be a concern. if you look at their protection of $58 billion of net interest income for the full year and use the bloomberg function eeb, you will see analyst estimates around $58.5 billion for the year. so their projection is a little light relative to analyst expectations. i think it is because they are purposely slowing loan growth. at this point last year they were growing loans at 8%. by the fourth quarter is slowed to 6%. by the first quarter it had slowed to 5%. i think it is because they are worried about the credit cycle. if you look at both pnc and jp provisionsn loss came in higher-than-expected, driven by a jump in see and i --
in cni corporate loans rising. alix: but isn't that a good thing? if you are going to set aside more money because loans are rising, that is a good thing, no? charles: corporate nonaccrual lines were rising, so in other words there was a rising corporate debt. alix: i would agree with charles agree with would charles that that is probably a good thing. 1% to 2%oking at growth year-over-year, so obviously that is a big slow down, but if we are thinking about being closer to a recession and where we are late in the cycle, that's probably what you would like to see. obviously we are going to want to hear more from the company in terms of what is happening with overwriting and pricing. is a slowdown from their
previous target. in the consumer bank we are seeing good spending, probably a good read through for some of the card companies. i think that is really where investors are worried about this cycle that we are probably going to see some of the higher losses once things start to deteriorate. charles: that's my point, that this is peak year-over-year quarter for growth. it is going to slow over the year for grasses -- it is going to slow as the year could be flat by fourth quarter. buybacks are a big part of it. these companies are buying back 6% to 9% of their shares, so it is really what's driving it.
that's why some of these stocks, not so much jp morgan because they are showing organic revenue growth, but some of these others that aren't are underperforming the market because it is all financial engineering, and people aren't paying a premium for that. david: all right. thank you both very much for being with us. coming up, uber files for an ipo, making the case that investors should focus on the platform, not the company's losses. we will ask tom white of da davidson if that holds true. this is bloomberg. ♪
do you think uber will be able to convince investors to look past losses? tom: i think disclosing or breaking out profitability will be helpful to investors to help them understand the more core businesses versus uber's longer-term debt and things like autonomous and some of the other emerging technologies they are working on. i think the bigger issue for the stock will be not trying to parse out that profitability. what the trend has been for that possibility -- for that profitability the last couple of quarters has been trending down, and they said in the ipo filing that that contribution margin is likely to decrease in the near term. david: talk about the revenue,
particularly in the core business of rideshare. the rate of growth is slowing. at the same time, it appears lyft may be growing. is lyft taking market share, or is that just a matter of market gain? tom: i think it is a pretty clear trend over the last couple of years. left bank has taken chair from uber in north america -- lyft share from uber in north america. think the slowdown in revenue growth that you looked at really uber may bemingly moving from defense to offense exiting 2018, making concessions on take rate. their billings growth was actually quite strong, but they are retaining less, which
led to slower revenue growth. david: it seemed to be they said they were going to make it up on services. uber eats is a smaller portion of their business, but growing fast. can they make up portions of their market share loss? a fragmented market globally, but in the near term it looks like uber eats could be the largest drag on overall profit ability at uber. some of the wording suggested a scenario where they are going to lean in particularly hard on investment in the near-term. alix: can you have a buy rating on the left bank and uber at the same time -- on lift bank and lyft-- on lift ba -- on and uber at the same time? tom: i think it is possible to have that position in both companies. they offer different kinds of exposure. -- lyft -- lift
gives you a lot of different other products within the ,ortfolio, geographic exposures and longer-term bets on further ways to disrupt mobility. alix: tom white of da davidson, thank you very much. coming up on this program, mixed signals for the global economy. we hear from the spanish economy minister from the imf meeting on a day when you're getting some green shoots out of china. stronger credit growth and strong exports. this is bloomberg. ♪
their credit supply is growing at the fastest pace since 2016. exports improved. that helped lift appetite in the market. jp morgan also fueling an equity rally. s&p futures over 2900, that key level many traders watching. higher on better numbers out of china. it is going to be a commodity rally, dollar selloff, and selloff in the bond market. big boost in euro-dollar. the aussie dollar is outperforming all the other currencies on that stronger export number out of china. the imports were a little slower, which could surmise that potentially the domestic demand they wanted isn't really there yet, but the exports very encouraging, and the money supply encouraging for commodities and for australia. david: exactly.
they are exporting so much that the world wanted, which means there may be some growth there. alix: that is all fueling this risk appetite that we have seen. the unloved rally his feelings of love today. david: let's get an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. viviana hurtado is here with the first word news. viviana: the federal reserve won't give to political pressure. this coming from chairman jerome powell speaking to democrat lawmakers at a retreat in virginia. powell reportedly did not mention president trump's attacks on the fed. the european union cleared the way for trade talks with the u.s.. the trade chief giving the ok to negotiate industrial tariff cuts. the european union is trying to avert president trump's threat of automotive terrorists. rich women are increasingly -- automotive tariffs. rich women are increasingly calling the shots. trillion ofl $18 assets in the u.s..
the cohead of wealth management at morgan stanley says firms need to increase their diversity. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. david: i think we get some credit. women end up with the money. alix: thank you very much. bezos'shink of jeff soon-to-be ex-wife. alix: i talked to some high level executives in tech companies, and they said the amount of money women have there is not an investment community for women who want to shoot ideas across each other and get advice, and we kind of need that when there is so much money filtering through. david: the interesting question is whether that will shift in how the money gets invested.
will women have a different approach to what they invest in? alix: really excited about that. that is going to be a structural trend in the next couple of decades. the annual spring meeting for the imf is underway. withine lacqua joins us the spanish finance minister. we are joined by one of the big thinkers of the spanish economy. minister, thank you for giving us a little bit of your time. we are here at the imf world bank spring meeting. we talk about europe as being maybe one of the weakest regions , especially if the u.s. decides to impose tariffs. what do spain and europe do to counter that? guest: good morning. it is a pleasure to see you here in d.c. last night in the g20 roundtable, one of the key issues we identified as a risk for the future was an escalation
of trade tensions. i think we have enough challenges ahead to create additional ones, so we should try to preserve the multilateral trading system which has given us prosperity throughout the world, and do our utmost to try to avoid this kind of trade escalation. francine: we are talking about $11 billion possibly. do you have any visibility on the impact that could have on spain? guest: i would really try to avoid engaging in speculation about these kind of actions. i really hope that the u.s. authorities will realize this is not the right way forward. as i was saying yesterday, everybody around the table agrees that free-trade is the right way forward, and we should all work together to try to achieve it, not endanger it. francine: when you look at the european slow down the concern over inflation, the fact that the ecb has lost control of it, what impact does that have on spain? guest: spain is one of the few
advanced economies which is not been devised downward by the imf. we are showing quite robust growth. our forecast for the year is 2.2%, which is extremely prudent . for the moment, the slowdown in start to pick up in the second part of the year, but has not had a negative impact on our economy due to a very strong investor demand. francine: if you have the chance to run the spanish economy for another four years and if there is no major shock for risks, what does the economy look like in four years? guest: that is an excellent question because in a couple of weeks, we are going to have elections in spain. the last 10 months, our government has tried to ensure we are on a stable path in terms of fiscal response ability, reducing debt and deficit to gdp levels, but at the same time thinking about inclusive growth,
think about reducing inequalities which have increased significantly in spain in the last 10 years since the beginning of the crisis. i think this kind of recipe with structural reforms is likely to be our leitmotif. we have a program for the coming four years so that spain continues to be the vanguard when it comes to digital transformations, facing climate change, and also looking at the people, trying to ensure growth is inclusive and doesn't leave anybody behind. francine: what will be the impact of election spending on the budget this year guest: last time we spoke -- this year? , ist: last time we spoke believe we talked about budget reduction. nevertheless, what we do this year will try to reduce as possible. our target will be around 2% of gdp deficit this year.
even without a budget, we will do our best. for the moment, revenues are performing quite well. so i believe we will be able to achieve significant reductions in the coming years. francine: who would make a better coalition partner for socialist economic policy? talk about coalitions is after thefor days elections. we hope to reinforce our standing in congress, to allow us to have a government we have had that has been quite successful in ensuring trust in markets. i would think that is the best for my country, to pursue a path ,f sponsor black and i policy but also inclusive, sustainable growth for the future. i hope the vast majority of the spanish population will support that. francine: talk to me about
banking systems. negative rates have impact on some of the models of banks. the ecb saying they will try to mitigate the effect by tearing -- by tiering. will that really mitigate it? been: some ministers have changing monetary policy. i think sooner or later we would need to normalize monetary policy. i think also the real economy in the financial system would benefit from normalization. unfortunately, this has been delayed, so we will have to produce in this environment of low interest rates, which is challenging in some areas, and
good in other areas. the spanish vanke think system has undergone a deep restructuring in the last 10 banking the spanish system has undergone a deep restructuring in the last 10 years. don't think it would be particularly challenged or affected going forward. francine: deep expect more consolidation in europe? guest: as a minister, i think it is not my role to encourage decisions by private owners of financial institutions. my prime concern is fiscal spit ability -- fiscal stability, financial stability. i think that would be our prime objective. whether that requires more consolidation or not, we will see. francine: but you must be worried about some to big to fail banks. guest: of course. comment on the possible reasons for these kinds
of mergers or projects. in the last 10 years we have seen the two big to fail banks are indeed very challenging. i don't want to use the word dangerous, but something of the sort. concerning for the economy, for financial stability. i am not a big fan of this kind of candidate. the other thing surprising in europe is the lack of consolidation across countries. all merges are taking place within the national boundaries. this is something we need to address by deepening the economic and monetary union, by deepening the integration of financial markets. thank thank --francine: you so much for joining us. with that, back to you in new york. we will have plenty more from washington, d.c. on the imf world bank spring meetings. david: thank you very much. coming up, binge watching for seven dollars a month. disney's big bet on streaming is up next. this is bloomberg.
$42 billion to buy anadarko. one to watch in the open. david: we turn now from energy to media. disney is launching a streaming service in november that will give mobile users access to a wealth of disney content. include most star wars movies, as well as all of projects.and marvel >> i think making them available on a new technology platform that is simply more modern and growing in popularity, at a price that makes sense, with a user interface that's beautiful, i think that's why we feel confident this is a product people are going to sign up in droves to have. reporter: you said you will likely bundle disney+ and hulu. when, and what will drive that decision? >> i think you can figure will
bundle espn plus and disney+ fairly soon. i don't have an exact date. minoritytill have partners, and everything we do with hulu has to be done with them in mind, so bundling would be something we might take to the hulu board, but it would require the approval. we think there will be consumers that will want all three. even truly we want to make it possible for a consumer to buy all three. reporter: will you be attempting to buy all of hulu? guest: we'll see. we've been in conversation with partners about that possibility, but it is too early to speculate. reporter: you did give up some partnerships with netflix as a result of pursuing this streaming service. you mentioned some of your distribution deals. you talked about roku and 70. you didn't mention apple -- and sony. you didn't mention apple or amazon. why not? guest: it will be available
through traditional app distributors, apple being one of them. if people want to subscribe to the app, they will be able to do so through apple in the itunes store and other platforms could be traditional cable distributors. reporter: what do the announcements today mean for disney content overseas, specifically in china and the broader asian market, where we have a lot of people watching right now? bob: i think you can figure that all of the content that we make for the service will be available internationally in different forms. in some markets, we will launch the service as a subscription model. that won't be the case right away, and it won't timidly be the case in all markets. there are laws in china that still govern over the top services, direct to consumer services that we obviously have to comply with. we are not certain exactly how the overall disney+ service will
enter the chinese market, but i think ultimately the product that is being made for it, if the business service doesn't end up there, we'll end up in another form. david: that was disney chairman and ceo bob iger speaking in los angeles. we can see why disney feels the need to do this if you see what is going on with viewership. disney is the wrench, espn -- is the orange, espn is the blue. you see what netflix is doing, and hulu, which disney owns 60% of, going up. alix: you know what netflix is? a tech company. i think of it as a tech company. david: it is a huge challenge. it is like automobiles. they are entirely different companies built for entirely different reasons. some people say the essence of this new world is going to be big data, which is not been what disney has done historically. alix: this literally happened to
big oil companies when they went into the permian 10 years ago. they had to get out, then went back in after independents did all the work. david: it is also the classic battle in media between content and distribution. disney's got the content. there's no question about that. especially now they've bought fox. on the other hand, netflix and amazon know how to deliver this stuff richly to consumers and have the wherewithal to deliver it and whom to deliver to, and how and when. that?can disney buy a platformhey have to basically take over the world, which is what disney is trying to do. i have tosay -- alix: say, i think i'm going to go to disney. you've got avengers, star wars, and disney princesses. i see no downside. --id: "no white" and
david: the race to 5g. the fcc is going to be auctioning the most spectrum yet to facilitate the move to broader airways. kevin cirilli joins us now from washington was ajit pai, fcc chairman. kevin: thank you for being here with bloomberg on such a busy the third 5gcc as spectrum auction will be the largest in u.s. history. tell us more about it. our planore part of involves making more spectrum
available for commercial marketplace. we will be holding the biggest auction of spectrum in american history. really put az will stamp on america's leadership on 5g across the world. kevin: put that into context. what does that actually mean, especially when you look at global competitors like korea and china? ajit: we are very much ahead of the curve. with the current auctions, we will be allocating more spectrum for commercial 5g then all of the mobile broadband providers in america have today combined. it is a huge influx of supply, and we are very confident carriers will use the spectrum in order to deploy 5g services and applications. we want that investment and innovation to happen here because spectrum availability is a big part of the equation. kevin: which companies are we talking about here? sprint, t-mobile, verizon? would expect traditional
players in the wireless sector, but we've been seeing interest from cable companies, silicon valley companies, and other who see the use case of 5g as being dramatic different from 4g. all kinds of industries will be technologies.ese as the internet of things starts to develop, a lot of companies are seeing an interesting 5g spectrum. kevin: i still think there's a lot of confusion in the consumer place as to what exactly 5g is. ajit: most consumers are familiar with 4g. one of the reasons we are bullish on 5g's because it promises 100 times more faster speeds and much greater capacity. we are talking about applications like virtual reality and other types of things, some of which we can't even conceive today. the consumer benefits will be massive. that's why you want america to lead. kevin: i find this really
interesting because you are talking about public-private partnerships and investment from the outside community, but there have been some signals from newt gingrich and even the president himself that the u.s. will become itself a telecom provider, and that 5g needs to be wholesale rather than built by the private industry in a competitive market. what do you make of those signals? ajit: i strongly believe the market is best positioned to drive innovation and wireless technology. fromis the message i get wireless technology and 4g. we saw the entire mobile app economy and all of this investment and innovation happen in the united states. i think that is the right model with 5g as well. kevin: you will be with the president later this afternoon. does he believe that? i am we will find out, but confident he understands american leadership in 5g is critical. kevin: another big part of this plan is access in rural
communities because of how often they get left behind in these discussions. that is another component of the news today. ajit: closing the digital divide is one of the sec's top priorities -- the fcc's top priorities. we will be getting these two rural parts of the country. we want to make sure these networks are strong, in part because 5g technologies will also rely on fiber and other high-capacity networks to carry that. kevin: $20 billion. where is it going to come from? ajit: this is part of the universal service fund, maintained by the sec for the purpose of building -- the fcc for the purpose of building these parts of the country that are on the wrong side of the digital divide to make sure they will become participants in the digital economy. it is critical for all of these
different things nowadays, from telemedicine to online education. we want to make sure that rural america is a part of that. kevin: is huawei going to be a part of that? to --the sec has proposed the fcc has proposed to bar the use of any for something that may pose a security threat. we want to make sure these networks are maintained. kevin: so the jury is still out. things we arehe evaluating is the proper framework for making sure our networks are secure. kevin: i know you are making a decision on whether to ban huawei from companies that take u.s. subsidies. consumers should
be secure in the knowledge that we make this an import priority. kevin: i would be remiss if i didn't ask you about the sprint/t-mobile merger. what can you tell me? ajit: unfortunately i can't comment on a pending merger, but i know there's a great amount of interest in it, so we are studying the record very carefully. our decision is going to be driven by two things, the facts and the law. kevin: timeline? ajit: unfortunately i can't forecast. kevin: bring it back to this broader conversation about putting the u.s. first in a global environment. there is so much going on with u.s./china trade talks. how does this factor into the competitiveness for the longer haul, not just from a consumer standpoint, but the broader macroeconomic standpoint? to transformoing entire industries. think about health care alone. it would allow every patient when they leave the hospital to
remotely transmit vital signs back to your health care provider so that you don't have to wait until an emergency strikes. you can anticipate some of those vital signs going south and intervene quicker. having smart transportation networks that can more intelligently analyze traffic will reduce the amount of time we spend in traffic. all of these industries are going to be dramatically transformed. that is one reason we want america to lead in 5g. we want all of those massive innovations to happen here because that way we can make sure our economy gets a turbocharged boost compared to other countries. kevin: people just want to have their cell phone working little faster. thanks for coming to bloomberg. we very much appreciate your time on such a busy day for the fcc. there you have it. a big day for 5g. i to you in new york. -- back to you in new york. alix: thanks so much. they brought up when it comes to security, it is going to be the pressing issue for this. david: part of the problem is what they are talking about
would you be so much more vast than the last time we had a big move, the move to hd tv. this is the internet of things. this is talking to your house come out of that security, and that would make this so sensitive. alix: didn't we have the reports that alexa, people are listening to you? david: this is the next generation of that. security becomes critical important. alix: to our point with disney, every company is becoming a tech company, no matter where you are. even if you are consumer goods, you're going to be a tech company if you buy into the internet of things, which means more security. david: every company is a tech company, whether it knows it or not. alix: 100%. david: the difference is the one who know itdavid: and who are getting dragged into it kicking and screaming. alix: a conversation to be continued. the 8:00 hour starts right now. ♪
alix: big oil mna. anadarko.ys and who were pitches itself as the amazon -- and uber pitches itself as the amazon of transportation. wells fargo now on deck. ford: earnings-per-share the first quarter was $1.20 for jp morgan. net interest margin misses the estimates in the first quarter, which is greatly important for wells fargo in particular because they are not so much a trading bank as a bank bank. the immediate reaction is the stock is up in premarket to .5%. premarket 2.5%. alix: i'm interested in the net income margin.
some are saying this is going to be the high water mark because we are not getting more rate cuts -- excuse me, rate hikes. if we don't have anymore hikes, that is problematic as well. david: that is a problem for any bank right now, but particularly wells fargo. that is where their bread is buttered, as they say. alix: joining us now, alison williams of byomberg intelligence and phone, charles peabody of port alice partners -- of portales partners. alison: what is the outlook for mortgage banking after this quarter in terms of going into next quarter? it looks like credit coming in much better than expected. is there some kind of one-off there?
we also so credit coming in line at jp morgan. some pickup in the non-performers on the commercial side, but we would expect to see that. also for wells fargo, their expenses looked about in line. alix: just to recap, your total average alone up $3.8 billion from the fourth quarter to $950 billion is that kind of jump really unusual? -- $950 billion. is that kind of jump really unusual? alison: we will want to look and see where we are seeing the growth for wells fargo. there wasn't a lot of growth to be had in the environment last year, so that ended up not costing them as much as you would've seen. david: there net charge-offs were better than expected, about $695 million.
but the provision for credit losses, they took $845 million as opposed to the estimate of $744 million. they are expecting something coming down the road. alison: correct. the consensus was they would have some releases. if there is something specific going on, or are they seeing broad weakening? alix: and also is it specific. jp morgan talk specifically about things it needed to have provisions for. it wasn't an overall credit quality conversation, but company or loan specific. alison: it could be something related to sometimes commercial things are lumpy, not seeing anything specific yet, but i will take a few minutes to get through the release. david: we are joined on the telephone by david george of bear. you had a couple minutes now to
go over these numbers. >> not too different from alison. in general from what we are looking for, but the key to the story is is what we get from a new ceo, whether major strategic changes you see from a expense or capital return perspective, et cetera. on a core basis, at least on first glance, this looks ok, and credit was good. the name looks a little light, although i'm guessing there's some one-time issues related to that, but on balance, a stable quarter out of wells is a good thing. expectations coming into the quarter were relatively low given the stock performance. alix: when we are still dealing with finding a new ceo for wells fargo, what kind of ceo do you think those fargo needs right now?
-- think wells fargo needs by now? >> someone with a retail and commercial banking background at wells. it is less of an investment bank , for someone with a competent corporate and retail background. foresightat has the hopefully to return wells fargo to its senior -- to its investment class. some: wells fargo has had restrictions placed on it about how much it can grow its balance sheet. to what extent are these numbers limited by that restriction? alison: i think we would have seen the impacts of that last year to some extent, as i mentioned. the fact we haven't seen the loan growth opportunity has hurt them less. we did have some growth sequentially, so that is a positive. the other thing is the mortgage business.
wells fargo earned more mortgage banking than all of the other large banks. applications in this quarter increasing sequentially. it is spring selling season, so maybe there's an opportunity for wells to have some lift coming into the second quarter. david: the initial reaction from premarket is positive, up about 2.5%. williams and david george, thank you for joining us. going us now is phil smedes. .e owns wells fargo do you have initial reactions as an owner to these numbers? guest: what you are really dealing with here is a stock running out of sellers. bottom not because some buying interest comes in and dries them up. you have to get to the last seller.
i think expectations -- i mean, what was left to smear with these guys with? the guy running it got thrown .ut the expectations are zero, and you see in the report this is a very profitable business that went public in about 1855. do you think this is going to stop them? there is so much potential here, and you've already hit on it. you mentioned the mortgage business. they are the best residential real estate bank among the large banks, and there's going to ultimately be 95 million millennials coming for a house. our friends in the television business tell us that people 25 to 35 like to watch hdtv. so what does that meet -- like to watch hg tv. what does that mean? they are in a very good position to hire somebody talented, get
morale back in their employee base, and enjoy a much stronger economy the next 10 years. david: you make a really interesting point because in general, we say if the fed would raise rates, it would probably help banks. if the fed stays out of this game and keeps interest rates low, does that help wells fargo disproportionally because people buy more houses? bill: i love your question, but we think in five to 10 year time frames rather than in the short factoro the number one in the banks becoming popular stocks would be if the velocity of money picks up. the last 10 years, the velocity of money has declined as the fed flooded the system coming off the financial crisis. there is a massive amount of liquidity, and most of that has flown into amazon and revenue growth stories because of the anemic economies. the reason for that is the
largest adult population groups, which right now is about 22 to 36, has been slow to engage the liability side of these financial institutions. would 95 million people were placed 5 million gen xers, the amount of liability activity will go up, and the profitability of these banks will soar. that could be a rising interest rate environment where stocks aren't as popular as they were, making these banks the next 10 years way outperform the average stock. alix: we are seeing wells fargo outperform this morning, so do you have that long-term view trend?ere is low are you out there buying? bill: yes. we've held the stock for many years. what are the officers and directors going to do? do they think it is a good idea to buy here? that is what gets us motivated.
when jp morgan had the oil trade, jamie dimon bought $13 million of the stock at $13.50, down from $50, in the summer of 2012. insiders at bank of america were loading up in 2012. when we see the people running to business: their own broker or putting orders in online and putting their stock in the open market, that is what we want to see. that tells us they believe in the company, and they know the value of the business better than anyone else. when they hire a ceo, rather than lavishing them with a package of employment perks, et cetera, we want to see the person that they hire call up their broker and buy a bunch of stock. alix: good stuff. smead ofad -- bill smead capital will be sticking with us.
the money supply in china grew in its fastest pace in march since 2016, helping the risk appetite. strong, alongd with the again. selloff pretty much -- along with the yen. chevron down. could see its worst day and about 14 months, but you're still looking for crude seeing its best week since 2016. you talk about that powerful rally. banks definitely going to help that sector as well. jp morgan, wells fargo all rising. jp morgan really crushing across the board, and good readthrough through in some areas on wells fargo. coming up, it is not all about the losses. tellinging for an ipo, investors to focus on the platform, not on the money-losing ride-hailing business. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪
viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." today a big takeover in the energy industry. chevron agreed to buy anadarko petroleum for cash and stock, seen as a bet on the permian shale oil region and liquefied gas. seven dollars a month for its new streaming service is how disney is set to take on streaming giant netflix. disney+ is not expect it to break for about five years. it will feature an arsenal of kids friendly programming from the disney archives. , starney pixar, marvel wars, national geographic. these are the brands that are just beloved, and have a long history of serving the consumer
for many, many generations. they are still popular and still relevant. aniana: kkr is tapping appetite for private investment. it shows no signs of slowing down. this year the firm is rolling out four new firms. two of them credit, one real estate, and the other focuses on infrastructure. than $12y raises more billion. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: here's the deal. don't worry about losses. it is the platform that matters. that is the case uber is making in its ipo. joining us is gina martin adams, and still with us is bill smead of smead capital. what is your expectation for a company like uber with $3 billion in losses? gina: it is difficult to say exactly what to expect from any
given ipo. lyft was pretty well subscribed in the start, and we have been bouncing around, trying to find a level on the price. i think ipo's in general this year have been very well subscribed, so i wouldn't surprise to see that again for uber. i think there's a lot of concern on the investor basis where profitability goes for these companies going forward. that is naturally going to create some volatility in the short run. you expect subscriptions to be relatively strong, but volatility to ensue as investors try to work out the likelihood for this company to produce often ability within three to five years -- produce profitability thin three to five years. it is different from a company like levi, which has long profitability people can rely on. bill? what do you think, does this fit into the category of people crowding stocks and taking funds away from some of the more traditional equities? cycle,n this particular
i started in the investment business in 1980, and i've seen two or three of these technology euphoria cycles, and these companies and their founders were so much more greedy than any set of founders of tech companies that i've ever seen. waitings happened is by three years, two years longer than the way things used to be to go public, they've eliminated a double or triple for those first public shareholders in the process. secondly, westech already having been the most popular thing -- with tech already having been the most popular thing, you are seeing a supply and demand issue. investors are massively overcommitted to technology. what starts to happen is if i want to buy uber, i've got to
sell this existing revenue growth story i'm enamored with. that is exactly how markets top out. i mentioned that you run out of sellers and wells fargo, and you run out of buyers in tech darlings. that is exactly what. they are going to choke the tech stocks with these ipo's in the next six to 12 months. david: gina, thus far do we see any indication the appetite is getting filled? it seems like there are other ipo's in the wings, and there seems to be a lot of interest. gina: it is early days yet. we had a few ipo's so far. we will have to see how supply and demand dynamics play out. one thing is how much demand has come from the companies themselves. tech companies have filed their cash back into buybacks, which has helped normalize the supply and demand. i think you do keep a really close eye on how supply and demand play out for tech, as well as the market at large
because these ipo booms can either continue to accelerate the excitement about the group, or they can prove to be imbalanced if the supply is not met with an acceleration in demand and turns over. i would argue we haven't had an ipo boom yet. we are at the early stages of one. this could persist a lot longer than many people think if investor appetite proves to be very strong. we really haven't had strong investor appetite. it been more about companies buying back shares. david: bill, when you look at something like uber, i think it is pretty clear to most people it is an idea whose time has come. change the way we use automobiles. as an equity investor, do you play in that or not or wait for it to get sorted out? do you want to be part of the transformation the way amazon transformed the way we buy things? bill: it is a great question,
and i would like to first refer to what she just mentioned. i think what i kind of heard from her is we are either early in the crazy stage or already in the crazy stage. is i use to understand uber a lot personally. so understand the product. but there's an awful lot of things that i use in companies whose stocks aren't doing diddly squat, that are very profitable and nobody wants the stock. so this idea that just because people like what you do doesn't matter, its earnings and free cash flow and those kind of things. in our opinion, the strength of the capital markets is what is driving these companies. last year, the largest percentage of ipo's of companies that lost money broke the 1999 record. so to say that we haven't begun to fill an appetite, to me, is
basin, the core of the permian, this will allow us to bring some of the things we've become very good at, factory drilling and surface infrastructure, downstream integration, to a much larger portfolio, and we still have this tremendous royalty advantage. this brings together two very nice assets and makes our position in permian even better. david: last time you were with us, you were saying permian is where most of your gains were going to be. does this shift your company to other places to look for gains, and other longer-term games? guest: i think the permian can sometimes take the air out of the room. we are a global company across many different asset classes. we got a downstream chemicals business. the permian's what everyone likes to talk about, but there's much more. anadarko is a world-class company with terrific assets. we have a highly complementary position in the gulf of mexico in the deepwater. they've got a really nice lng position they are developing in
mozambique, which will come limit investment we've made over the last decades in australia and help us grow our lng portfolio. the industrial logic will fit those companies across industries very well. we like the resource in the way they've developed. they have a world-class team of people working on this, and we are very excited about it. we like that project. alix: joining us now to discuss more is roy martin. roy, you just heard mike wirth talking about what was good about the deal, but you still have the stock down in premarket. what is the not good part about the deal, and your opinion? guest: anytime we see a major acquisition, it is inevitable we see a short-term drop in share price. strategically we are very positive about the deal. it certainly plays to chevron's ,trengths of deepwater and lng
and diversifies their options and gives them a lot more. they really become the oil behemoth of a super major. it is quite the deal. the other thing is it really diversifies their gross options. it gives them more long-term upside, more in the gulf of mexico, and the lng angle is quite important as well. alix: quickly, for shell, do they have to buy? l has been one of the majors that has made les moonves of late, but they are laser focused -- has made less moves of late, but they are laser focused on 2019. alix: coming up, mixed signals in the global economy. in the global economy.
equity market. you will sell bonds, you will buy commodities, you will buy currencies except the dollar and the yen. the aussie dollar is the outperform or, reacting to the china story. crude having its best week since 2016. the latest read on inflation coming in right now. if you take a look on a year on year basis, pretty much flat. we were expecting a decline. that will probably be an energy story. the price export index up .6%. there.s something a little import pressure. david: price increases, which would not seen show up in cpi. alix: which is what we saw yesterday, a little stronger ppi. pessimism on the core but low inflation. david: the question is what is going on around the world and
people meeting in washington at the imf are talking about exactly that. global growth and it seems to be on everybody's mind there. >> what is delicate at the moment is moving from what we had assumed would be synchronized growth a year ago to what looks like a synchronized slowdown at the moment. >> what they are facing is a slowdown of growth, a slowdown of investment, and an upswing of uncertainty. >> global growth lost momentum throughout 2018. a coincided with three other warning signs. waning structural reforms in major economies, financial stress in some large emerging markets, and elevated policy uncertainty globally. >> we have downside risk. uncertainty has been a big force of downside risk over the last several months.
they cannot be the full engine of growth in the global economy. david: we welcome from washington michael mckee. the imf came out with its economic outlook and took down global growth projections. evercore isi said that his old news. the world is turning around because china's turnaround. which is it? michael: it is little bit of both. that is the feeling in washington. pessimism about the prospects for the global economy. it revolves around trade wars. if the u.s. and china can reach a deal, then they expect growth to pick up. you can see how the imf has marched out its forecast for the rest of the world. slower than it was in january. the only country that will go faster-- that will grow
is china and that is a result of the stimulus. david: what about the numbers overnight from china. do they confirm some of the stimulus efforts in china are having effect? michael: you can look in aggregate credit in china. it does show aggregate credit has grown tremendously over the last couple of months, dipped in the month of february because of the holidays but has come back strong and now we are seeing -- i have the long -- i have the wrong chart. let people of the right chart. david: we like aluminum. michael: i know alix steel is getting excited. here is the right chart. you can see the numbers show aggregate credit is rising again and that is good for the chinese economy. it does show it is starting to improve. also we saw let chinese exports have picked up. exports not -- imports not so
much. with exports rising, the trade surplus is bigger. alix: michael mckee, thank you much. joining us is michael gave been -- michael gapin and a bloomberg reporter. green shoots. are we seeing it? is it real. michael: it is real. there is evidence of stabilization. the imf numbers were revised down to where consensus is. the view is that if the fed was moving on the sideline and trade tensions dissipated we should see battle growth -- better growth from china. we think the data flow is better in the u.s.. we would love for stabilization in the outlook in the second half of the year. about the united states with the fed staying on the sideline. we talked with stephen moore who said we have a lot of growth without inflation. this is what he said.
that.d i promise you. >> i heard it. david: he was the cofounder of the club for growth and he said we have to get over -- now we will listen to it. >> i will come with the idea and challenge one fundamental idea i think is endemic at the fed, which is completely wrong. this is that growth process inflation. growth does not cause inflation. when you have more output of goods and services, prices call. i think the fed has been afraid of growth. i think they are wrong. david: maybe they do believe we can have growth and not inflation. >> we have seen a pickup due to the tax part -- the tax cuts and not as much of a growth in inflation. there is rethinking about some of these old relationships, the
way some of these things play out and a lot more pessimism on inflation regardless of the growth outlook. the fed has brought down there outlook for growth quite a bit. thee is a question whether question about inflation is because they do not see -- alix: what is this telling you? hadhew: in the 1990's we strong gdp growth. they moved up000s and down together in tandem. in this cycle is more mixed bag. there are times when they've moved together in tandem and times when they have diverged. when people nervous say it will be great and we will have growth. if that is long will be wrong because we do not get growth or do not get inflation?
in the near term and is wrong because you do not get growth. i'm looking at the data and saying it is just the fate out of the stimulus and things be fine, but maybe it is not. i think the recovery will persist. if we get through the soft patch, over time, and the 2020 the2021, it is likely that longer recovery goes on, the tighter the labor market gets. you'll either get constrained margins or reduced profitability or just the same slowdown factor as you get if prices spilled into consumer inflation and brought the fed back into play. long expansions do generate the seeds of their own demise. just as likely to be a prophet story as an inflation story. alix: where does that wind up leaving the consensus? in terms of what the sentiment is in terms of growth we prolong the cycle?
has that been reflected? michael: mostly. when we look at bond market it still feels like low growth, low inflation. the fed is also communicating that. they revised down their growth. there is discussion on the willingness to tolerate more inflation, but a lot of discussion where we are not quite sure if we will get it. markets have generally price that in and are in a proved it to me mode. closely.u follow this as the fed confident in its models? matthew: increasingly less so. that is why you see them undertaking this review of their inflation targeting framework and the best way to go about that. interestingly i just had a conference at the minneapolis fed that was part of this broader series of conferences. it was interesting because they were focused on the employment side of the mandate.
a lot of questions about what is full employment. are we defining that the best way? you might see a bit of a rethinking on both sides of the mandate, not just about inflation, which has been getting all of the attention, but it gets to these questions we are talking about about the relationship between the real economy and the price side of the economy. alix: does that mean the theory that stephen more raids out -- lays out that you need to look at brought commodities, the idea you take a broad index of commodities, is there something to that? michael: the fed's mandate is written in terms of consumer price inflation. it is what it is. we can say the price action should be different, but their mandate is there mandate in congress gave that to them. flows in commodity prices say something about global demand. both of these things can be true simultaneously.
david: you're very good at it. michael gapen and bloombergs matthew boesler. thank you very much. alix: bloombergs taylor riggs has some of the highlights from the call. taylor: just getting on the analyst call, we just dropped out of the media call. a banner quarter. there continuing to tout record revenue and profit and a 90% rotc. ratesuing to say higher push margins forward and loans are going in apace they write -- they like. in terms of questions, a lot was about global growth that was cited as a key risk at the hearings on wednesday. they said no, we are optimistic about the u.s. economy and encouraged by the more positive data we have seen recently. in terms of areas to improve, highlighting technology in terms of improving efficiency in some
investments on their technology platforms, and then of everything -- anything is changed about the regulatory environment, they are saying we will stick with earnings on this call. nothing has changed in terms of regulation. net interest margins, we did see a tail wind. we expect that to flattering now later -- we expect that to plan out later this year. david: thanks so much. coming up, disney plus give shares of boost. the stock expected to reach a record high today. more on disney streaming push next and follow the lead. live from new york, this is bloomberg. homer simpson here, proud addition to the disney family. i salute our new corporate overlords. now put on the mouse ears.
viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up later on bloomberg markets, david lipton. it is time for follow the lead, a dive into the stories making headlines in moving markets with the inside from industry veterans. today we look at disney and the new streaming service announced , it will, disney+ include most of the star wars films, marvel movies, and disney classics. shares are getting a boost. ofcome jon klein, president vlinks.
these to be president of cnn u.s.. welcome. thanks for being here. how does disney stack up against netflix and amazon? jon: they have an intimidating roster of content. bob iger is the unquestioned master of media the way it used to be run. that is, it used to be all about the content and the stars and the marketing power for multiple platforms. now media is all about insight and the clear winner when it comes to insight in media is netflix. intelligenceficial to not only push out a lot of namebrand titles and stars, what th understand down to the n degree how that content is being used by viewers.
alix: -- david: and they have big data. netflix has been spending money like a drunken sailor getting content from places like disney, which will end. will there be some threat to the supply of content for netflix? jon: i would say netflix is not spending like a drunken sailor. a drunken sailor does not know what they are throwing their money at. netflix spends $15 billion a year wisely with insight as to what content works. you get a different netflix than i get, and alix gets a different one than we get. what netflix understands is case clusters. they've identified 2000 different case clusters among their 150 million global subscribers, down to the level of when do you pause on a show? when you resume watching that show? the use artificial intelligence
to compare you to 150 others and program accordingly. when they spend one dollar, they have a good reason for doing it. that is not true of traditional media companies. david: fair enough. is it a good business. when netflix spends those $50 billion, they're not putting that on their income statement. for disney, will this be as good of a business? they will lose money. they make as much of this is a duopoly theme parks and espn? jon: disney has no choice but to try to find the answer. disney's business model is different than netflix. netflix gets a free pass for being a sexy tech startup. when netflixcome has to behave like an adult were be evaluated like an adult, but that is not here. netflix has two or three years
to roll along the way it has, but you are seeing everyone else getting into this space. apple just announced a couple of --ks ago a similar dabbling a similar dazzling, star-studded event, and one thing apple has is a commitment to artificial intelligence. what bob iger is so good at marshaling the forces, saying we are taking that he'll come and they have conquered the debt saying they are taking that hill -- saying they are taking that conqueredhey have the content hill. now they have to say we will be the leader for artificial intelligence in media. alix: can he do that? jon: he can do anything. keep in mind, technology is easier than creativity. 0's.ology is 1's and
it is concrete good creativity. .ry writing -- try running a car chase that has never been seen beat -- try writing a car chase that has never been seen before. it is the blend of insight with the content that makes the home run. we like to say i guess we like to say ai is not technology. david: we share admiration for the job bob iger has done. two years?t jon: he can get the ball rolling. he could launch an initiative around artificial intelligence tomorrow and everyone would follow him. kevin mayor is smart -- kevin nair is so smart and capable. he could enacted. -- he could enact it.
you can spell ott without and a or and i but you cannot win ott without ai. i think they are smart enough to know that but now they have to get over the joy of this week and the announcement and now the roll up your sleeves mission is not let's get more content, and not let's make sure we are + oning about disney everyone of our platforms, it is do we know what we are talking about when we talk about it. it is not a monolithic audience but millions of individual audiences. that is what is new in media. that is what disney has to embrace in order to dominate in this space or compete effectively. otherwise, that acquisition of fox is $70 billion wasted. david: thanks a much for being here. jon klein, president of vlinks. alix: coming up, chevron bets big on shale.
alix: here is why am watching. billion a $33 acquisition of anadarko. chevron expects to exceed their previous permian target. 9000 barrels of oil a day. joining us is our as energy group director. why do you think investors are not liking this deal? >> is a lot of stock. i think it is going to take time as everybody digests this big of a transaction, which is the first we have seen in a few years at this point. alix: do like the deal? is it smart for chevron to do it? dane: i think it makes a lot of sense. ,hen you look at the portfolios
the gulf of mexico make sense, and then you have mozambique in the big lng products chevron is very interested in. there is rationale for the deal. the deal does make sense financially as well. david: would you have liked the deal more if it was a higher degree of cash? think -- i think maybe anadarko would like that. i do not think the market would like that. what kind of pressure does this put on other oil majors. goal is by 2024 do have more oil production. bp is trying to digest how it will develop the permian. does this put extra pressure on those guys? dane: i think it does. everybody was surprised that chevron was the first mover,
given their already large permian position. pressuretely put the for some of these other super majors to step in. alix: who would be next on the list? who has to pull the trigger first? what other assets are on the shopping block? dane: the one talked about most frequently is exxon. that is probably the easiest one today. alix: you think that will wind up -- what you think it will take to get done in this environment? dane: this changes things. we will see. alix: how quickly do you think chevron will be able to develop its assets in the permian to be able to get some kind of return on their investment capital? dane: the permian asset will probably have to be ramped. when we look at anadarko, they were growing production over 70%
last year. probably more rigs to make this deal work. you are also sitting, the way anadarko's position since in the core -- position sits in the core of the delaware basin, there is probably a quality increase the chevron portfolio, which helps the deal makes sense. alix: thanks so much. dane of rs energy. good to see dane. that is it for bloomberg daybreak. rieder.p, rick this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ stock markets rallying as jpmorgan kicks off earnings season, beating estimates. data out of china providing relief. credit growth surging, leaving the window open for the biggest ipo of the year. uber finally filing. 30 minutes away from the opening bell, good morning. friday price action, session highs on futures of 18 points positive .6%. in g10, the dollar is weaker. euro-dollar 1.13. treasury yields up five basis points. we begin with our top story. long, butn a painful market participants are sticking with the banks. >> we are big buyers of the banks. >> something we are starting to warm up to his long and overweight financials. >> the b