tv Bloomberg Business Week Bloomberg April 13, 2019 8:00am-9:00am EDT
-- editor joel weber joins us now. carol: why focus on germany? up a lot ofs taken air when we talk about europe. we know brexit has been kicked down the road. october is the new time i. let's talk about germany which is europe's biggest economy. what we see is there are three elements. story has economics gotten tepid. the political story -- mark ballas the most powerful political figure europe has and there is a succession story we need to be aware of. deutsche bank being this once upon a time it was the bank of germany and then it became an international bank. it is grappling with what size it is supposed to be. jason: that is a fast-moving story with wide-ranging implications. these banks are the twin
pillars of the financial system, the commercial banking system in germany. they are vital institutions but also weak institutions. both banks have struggled to generate profitability, to so the kind of strength and resilience other european banks aftertarted to produce years of recovering after the crash and it is funny but it is the german banks which many would think would be the strongest that have actually become the laggards in the european banking scene. >> what happened? you are right on both counts. the assumption would be views are strong german banks. this is deutsche bank especially that should be up part of the financial system. it has fallen by the wayside especially relative to its u.s. competitors. where did they go wrong?
edwards: looking at deutsche bank, it made a big bet in 2012 and that is what our story focuses on. it is this decision driven by the chairman elect meitner. while all other european banks would adjust to the post crash reality, the capital they had to set aside. all these banks are downsizing and getting ready for this different reality. deutsche bank decided we are going to pounce. we are going to grab all the business that our rivals said becomeshed and we will europe's answer to goldman sachs. we will be an investment bank. that was the decision, the chance they took in 2012 and these years later they are left in a situation where they have restructuring and
reorganizing of this is something they should have done six years ago. did they get it wrong because the market did not come to them like they thought it would? is that an economic problem in europe? is it mismanagement? where did it take a left turn? edward: it is all of the above. what you have is a situation of disorganized,s fragmented in terms of organization. it is a bank but did not know what was going on in far-flung units. that led to legal scandals. that his confidence. the shares get pounded. that is one problem. you have ar side, weak european economy. remember interest rates went to zero. that is bad news for a bank that depends on interest income to bolster its revenue. it did not get help on the macro side. you just have competition.
the u.s. banks, wall street came back strong over the last two --rs and these banks jpmorgan, bank of america -- they have been taking european customers that used to depend on deutsche bank and other europeans. now they say -- why don't i go with bank of america? those are the three main forces that have hit deutsche bank. >> let's talk about this proposed merger that was rumored. now it is out in the open. you have the german government potentially playing some role although they are a bit coy up to chancellor angela merkel. where do we see this playing out, because as you alluded to, this is not strength on strength with these institutions? the premise behind a
potential merger of these institutions, these weak banks for a strong bank which critics say that does not work. that does not compute. you have got a situation where the alternative -- letting them continue on their own might be worse. that is the issue. both of these banks need some kind of transformative change to get back on their feet, to get on stronger ground and this is a swing for the fences type of decision and that is why it is difficult to say whether it happens. it seems like the momentum is for some kind of merger. there could be cold feet at the end of the day. the issue was political. if these banks come together, chances are they are going to fire between 20000 and 30,000 branch managers, bank tellers, ordinary workers and branches in germany and at the same time
especially with joy so you could have a situation where highly paid investment makers in london and new york keep jobs. those are bad optics. that is not a good look and it is a political problem. we do not know how that is going to break. carol: it is great to hear what is going on in terms of deutsche bank. we have a great chart on the bloomberg terminal that takes a look at what would happen if you added commerzbank revenues to deutsche bank. the white level you see deutsche bank's revenue and you see how they have come off their peak as of late. still would not get deutsche bank up to peak levels. there ares is why skeptics around this deal including inside these banks. thek out that chart and use terminal to check out the latest headlines because this is a fast-moving story. embracew's push to
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carol: welcome back. jason: join carolyn to me every day for bloomberg is this week on the radio. daily show.p on our listen to our podcast. subscribe. carol: you can find us online and on our mobile app. in a section on germany, bloomberg businessweek introduces us to angela merkel's successor. jason: her name is akk. carol: she has been working to set her image as a angela merkel disciple. >> she is coming in after angela
merkel who has been in office -- he is in her fourth term now and she has become the de facto leader of europe over the last couple years. that -- canoncerned this woman from this small states actually lead germany and the way merkel has? tell us about where she does come from because it is not an area of germany well-known outside the country. david: she comes from the state of the land which is the smallest state in germany. it is an area that was not part of the federal republic until the mid-50's when they had a referendum in with the voters chose to come back from france. it shuttled between germany and france of the past couple years. it is a tiny place. it is like delaware without washington nearby. it is delaware where montana is. us understand her as
a politician on the political spectrum, especially because the spectrum feel like it is changing in german politics -- not unique to germany given the world we are living in. where has she been in? -- fit in? what has happened over the past five years is angela merkel has moved the cdu. it is the right party. it is center-right but it tends to be conservative. especiallyed in left on social issues. that has alienated the farthest right voters and it has created this opening for the alternative for germany, which is a populist hard right party in the mold of the national front in france. what aka is doing is
bring the cdc back to the right to recapture voters that defected. jason: how is she getting into the leadership role so far? merkel still in the job though no one knows whether she will make it to the prescribed end of her leadership term. the betting is she probably will but she could also be bounced tomorrow. there is no way of knowing. in any event, she is going to be out by 2021. she pledged she is going to leave -- she is not going to run against the that puts akaka -- a kk in the position of becoming the next chancellor because the cdu is likely to prevail in elections and she has already elbowed her way to the front of the lineup. carol: carmaking is essential to
the country's economic strength. jason: that is troubling to the decline in car ownership. carol: bmw is preparing for an electric future. >> bmw is undergoing huge --nges like other comic or's carmakers and part of that is the biggest generational shift for carmakers occurring now. if things go to plan, we will replace the combatant engine at the heart of the car industry with battery electric vehicles. in bmw's case, they have no less than four engine plans around the world, one in china, one of the u.k., one in germany. what happens with workers is -- during this transition seems unclear. many of them will shift into new positions and the shift will occur gradually. electric cars have not taken up
in terms of people buying them. the way this is going to play out is unclear but in terms of this shift, the engine is going away and being replaced with the electric engine -- is what is driving carmaking strategies now. jason: take us inside bmw as a shifty, even beyond this from the internal combustion engine. where does it as a company in the scope of global carmakers? elisabeth: very close to the pinnacle of the industry i would say. 2016,ny years up until bmw was the world's biggest luxury carmaker. they are number two behind first benz.pends -- mercedes they want to get back on top. the company has been around for
more than 100 years. asis known the world over producing the ultimate driving is disclosing since the 1970's. as a company, the grand for -- aspired toporty cars and with that shift, a lot of , specific attitudes are changing. jason: how does it change the workforce? how does it change the production line? how does it change the company's global footprint when it comes to manufacturing? elisabeth: in terms of making electric cars compared to combustion engine cars, the set of the simpler. you need fewer parts and if we look at the engine, the engine is made of 1200 parts alone
whereas the electric motor -- if you take the motor on it some, it will take two dozen parts. that means you need fewer people to develop the engine. you need fewer people to procure the parts for the engine and the assembly of the vehicle will be simpler and you need fuel people. carol: next, how college graduates are selling stakes themselves to wall street investors. jason: employers start to manage a baby bloomberg brain drain. carol: this is bloomberg. global news 24 hours a day, on-air at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts, in over 120 countries. ♪
106.1 in boston. inon: 960 in the bay area london on da digital and the bloomberg business at. carol: wall street created a new way to pay for college. jason: students can a greater handover part of their future earnings in return for something of an investment. carol: reporter claire boston has our story. >> i look at student debt, mortgage debt. the whole universe of consumer debt. when you look at student debt, it is a crisis in america. i have always been fascinated with what is going to happen. >> it has been a crisis and it does not get better. >> college costs keeps going up. because so much debt is tied to the government, investors are not concerned. it is weird we see this affect the economy in big ways but people think they are going to get paid back so there is not a big crisis at this point. it is bad news for students.
enterprising companies are trying to figure out a way to make this process better for students. how can they take out less debt? one proposal catching on is income sharing agreements. instead of taking out a $10,000 loan, maybe you would have $10,000 fronted and pay that back what you are out in the real world with a percentage of income. you pay 5% of income for a period of eight years. jason: there are so many things interesting about this story. purdue is one of the name schools that have started to adopt this. their president mitch daniels is passionate about making education affordable. jason: former governor of indiana? claire: yes. they have a program open to
juniors and seniors and if you are registered, you can apply. they want you to have taken out all the government loans you can take. there are trying to be competitive with a private student loans. if you are an english major, chances are you will pay a higher percentage of income than an engineer. that is based on -- jason: that is one of my favorite parts. as a former english major, well they do not think i am going to make a lot. research on have what their grads make the first are out of school and that is how they tried to price it. -- whatk and say percentage of your income will you pay if you have a $300 a month payment? carol: what happens if you lose your job? claire: when i talk to students, this is something they say that stands out about ifa's. if you are looking for a new one, you were on pause. you are not making payments. with a student loan, you are
going to pay no matter whether you are employed. jason: wall street because they like to securitized everything has found a way to get into this in a meaningful way of growing. claire: there are hedge funds that are figuring out -- can i buy these? the answer at some schools is yes. purdue has a program where they basically bring a bunch of these based onoutside money $70 million worth of outside investor money into these. it is a growing area. i have been talking to some investors. they are more bsg almost. you use student loans as a crisis, maybe this is a program that can change that. jason: the solution section this week looks at how to manage a short fell -- shortfall in your 401(k). carol: how employers are
managing an exit is of retiring baby boomers. isone thing we want to do look at wisdom out there which is save early, save early. you have got kids. they cost money. maybe you were laid off. you did not know what direction you were headed. are you doomed by the time you are 60 if you have not saved enough? who once upon a time was a business week staffer and was an expert in these things takes a look at this idea that you can make up for some times once the kids are gone. empty nesters are positioned -- well positioned because that is a huge expense gone. not to say that suddenly you are not freed up to splurge because that is another thing to nesters look forward to, but tuitions
and clothing allowances and feedingthe -- food hungry kids is a substantial chunk and when you pull that up, you can increase saving substantially and make up for lost time. that is the point. just up it big time. by empty-nesters, we are targeting people who are in their early 60's but the age range can spend several years and work out if you have a financial advisor and the key is -- do not throw up your hands and say that is it. i am not 45. i am not 35. what am i going to do? i am going to do destitute and four. carol: the average 401(k) today in 2016, $135,000. that works out to $600 a month you are living on.
dimitra: where can you live for $600 a month? right? the closer any of us get to observing older parents, $600 a month does not cover -- let's say you have a helper for older $600 is not a lot. you are looking at pulling out more, maybe extending how this one connects to the first story, perhaps extending the number of years you are working. carol: we are telling everybody you are working forever. that is not necessarily a positive message but it is. such, weongevity is are living longer. we are living healthier and people who are older are maintaining their health in different ways that people 30 years ago or 40 years ago.
more and more are used to this idea that work can be good for you. that the brain engagement with other human beings, so i do not think it is all a negative. but the story we also confront this month, this is about the company's confronting the baby boom brain drain. it is significant. you have millions of people that are leaving the workforce over the next several years. of taboo is the subject retirement is approaching people you know in the workplace whether you are a manager, a team member of that person and saying -- when are you thinking of hitting the golf course full-time? you can have the conversations but you have to approach them strategically and you have to think about the ways in which is a company you are going to devise a strategy that is a safe space to talk about this so you
searching for ancestral riches that may not exist. joel weber back with us. i was blown away by this. how did it come about? us,: joan and sarah came to hey there is this amazing story -- long-lost gold and families in the dominican republic looking for it. they want you to see what you can find. this story is the culmination of that. carol: it goes on for a while. joel: it is the longest story we published, about 9000 words. it is breathtaking. while it goes on for a but they have been working on this. joel: it is chapter after chapter. what it is about is the lawyer who put himself in the middle
between families who think there is gold and the banks who say -- we do not know what they are talking about. carol: i cannot wait for the movie. >> i picked up the phone and i .ot the guy life --live i do not have the heart to say goodbye. he was telling me he needed to have a cup of coffee because he needed to tell me about his story. i had a cup of coffee with him and he unravels this incredible tale of how for five generations this family, the guzman's had known they have an incredible inheritance in switzerland and spain because their great -- great whatever had a boat and minedo take mines gold -- gold and it would take a despain and give it to the king and put the rest of the bank. generationsugh the
they have always known this or believed it or whatever. helped him hook up with a lawyer. the lawyer investigated for a year and said there is no gold there. he gave up for a couple years and suddenly comes back and say, joe it is back on. jason: he found a guy or a guy found him? withhis cousin obsessed the inheritance moved to the dr and was looking up genealogical documents to prove the claim and bumps into this lawyer who is inheritance of another family, a bigger family and somehow says i have connected to the guzman fortune to bank. jason: you go to these places in part because this is where this lawyer has been going and you discover that maybe even though
strips are not exactly what they seem to be. joel: just to be -- joe: just to be clear, when i started this, i knew it was the longest of long shots that is inheritance existed. i never knew about dormant accounts. as i got into it, i started to think this cannot be real. as i thought it cannot be real, i thought -- why is he doing this? . did not understand he was going to get 30% of whatever he found but in the u.s. you do not get money until you crack the case. and tryingnking this to travel. i go to switzerland with them and spain and both times i realize they are supposed to have meetings with bankers. they do not have any. they tour the whole time.
i come back, i interview somebody who says, i have to pay him to be a client. it came to $200 which is a lot of money in the dr. i have to pay him to give him power of attorney and a him when i turn in my documents for processing. -- the lightbulb goes on. now i understand he does not five clients. he wants 30,000 clients. next, we have the winners of donald trump's tax laws. jason: plus, how the trade war is impacting voter bases. carol: this is bloomberg. ♪
jason: welcome back. carol: join us for bloomberg businessweek every day on the radio from 2:00 to 5:00 p.m. wall street time. catch up on our daily show. check out our podcast and find that on itunes. is online at businessweek.com and through our mobile app. carol: a reporter did the math to find out how trump's tax law played out. >> we took at look -- a look at who the real winner of the 2017 tax law was. it turns out it was wealthy -- chief particular executives. the owners of the world, people who benefited the most from the corporate tax cut. it turns out the tax law helped everybody. the vast majority of people got a tax cut despite what people taxt see with their
refunds. the biggest winner overall were definitely the millionaires of the world. jason: why? from the broadest perspective, why? joe: the biggest reason is the cut in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. the tax savings from something like that was from the people who want those businesses and most of those businesses were owned by the very wealthy. it is difficult to have a cut in the corporate tax rate without that flowing through the wealthiest people in the country. i do not know if you remember hiswhen trump named him as nominee for treasury secretary, steven mnuchin said he wanted whatever tax reform they came up with to not result in an absolute tax cut for the wealthy but the tax person i spoke to said the minute they heard that, they knew they would not be able to follow through.
that is because of this corporate tax rate cut. you cannot do a huge cut to the corporate tax rate without benefits accruing to rich people. trade policies have been challenging for american farmers. -- lostoss markets markets. here is shaun donovan. >> one thing we always forget in the trade war system they are happening in context. there is a broader economy going on and if you are a farmer or manufacturer you have a reality you are dealing with. in the farm industry in washington state, this is the biggest producer of apples in the united states. they are going through amazing transformations which all hangs on this wonder apple. they are ripping out old orchards, red delicious, gala apples. the kind you do not buy in the supermarket anymore because you
like american consumers do not like those apples anymore. they are putting in new orchards to the point where a few years from now they will be one in six apples that come out of washington state will because my crisps. the idea is addressing change in consumer tastes. this has gotten hung up in the trade war's because exports from washington state, which is the big business -- exports to india, china, mexico have all been hit by terrorists. that has meant less revenues and for family-owned businesses, that means less capital to invest in new orchards in the cosmic crystal. jason: what are the farmers saying to you? are they having to spend less on these capital investments? what are the ramifications? >> i sat down with a guy called sean gilbert. he is a former pitcher who took
over the family business. family 100 plus-year-old business. last year they were planning to renovate or replant 180 acres of orchards. they went for 120 acres. that is one third less than they were planning. that is one third less productive orchards three years from now that will generate higher-margin, apples and therefore more revenues. jason: this is not just about flipping a switch. these are decisions that have to be made that have implications years in the making. >> this is one of the biggest impacts we have seen. quantify.rd one to had you quantify a factor that has not been built? or people who have not been hired to go into that factory? and earnings calls you hear big company ceos talking about it all the time. it is about that new orchards. i was in louisiana talking to a soybean farmer called richard
.ontanelle -- fontenot he is not going to spend $3000 a year on a new combine because he lost $3000 faster in the form of a thousand acres of soybeans he had to beat in the field. jason: how does this come together in the aggregate politically? i we seeing an inflection point in this trade war, the straight discussion? >> one fascinating thing is the have reacted to the trade's politically. a lot voted for trump in 2016. a lot are sticking with him now. that is a function of what he has done on tax reform, deregulation, the use of water -- he has loosened up regulations which is important to farms. he has residual support for trump but there is a time limit
on that. that gets into the economic impact of trade wars. it feels like we have been talking about the trade war's forever but economically we are only starting to see and understand a lot of economic consequences. that is true on the farm. theyalk to the farmers and say, lester was lower the worst i have had in a long time. i am with him now but if i have another you like this, i am not sure i am going to stick around. next, the top supermarket chain in the u.s. is expanding but do not expected to be a household name. jason: what happens when an economist walked into a brothel? carol: is this a joke? jason: no. carol: is it about your taste buds -- it is not about your taste buds but about your earbuds. jason: this is bloomberg businessweek. ♪
carol: welcome back. i am carol massar. jason: i am jason kelly. listen to us on the radio, also a.m. 11 .3 in new york. on dab digitaln, and the bloomberg business. our podcast is the author allison stranger -- allison's trigger. ason: it is something of risky title -- what happens when an economist walks into a brothel? >> i had this idea that financial economics was an unexplored area of economics. you would not think so because you hear about it but i felt like it applied to all areas of economics and not just financial markets. i was flirting with this idea and it was businessweek who called me and said, we want to do a call on different ways to explore risks and unconventional places.
finance is the study of risk. jason: this is a few years in the making. how long does it take to assess risk in this lens? allison: you mean of writing a book? a terrible risk decision. it is hard to justify. it has to be a creative endeavor. it was 2014 and it was me starting to think about -- how risk could be reported rather than be in a financial model? i always models -- have this rough idea that financial models are parables told with math. when i started exploring, could i take that same parable and reported and find stories that match up to it? jason: how do you find your footing than as a journalist versus an academic? you climb out of the ivory tower? allison: it is not your opinion
anymore. as academics we do not talk to people. we are discouraged from it and for sometimes good reasons. it is partially you do not want anecdotes to bonnet -- by his urinalysis. it is not effective to tell a story and connect. it was learning how to write for an audience that connect and how to find people off the beaten path and learn how to get them to open up. jason: why did you become an economist? --ison: a lot of economists i grew up with a lot of questions. --rew up in a community people were upper middle class or poor. i never understood why. jason: where was this? allison: northeastern connecticut has a declining industry. differences -- i was a fourth generation to grow up there so i felt connected.
i have professional parents. i cannot figure out why this was happening generation after generation. when i started studying economics and started getting answers. when i was 15, i wanted to know more. there was never enough. that is why i knew early i would get a phd because every time i learned an answer i have a new question. jason: for our full interview, check out our bluebird businessweek extra podcast. get that wherever you download podcast. carol: how a small family run grocery chain is -- found a cultlike following. jason: chances are you have never heard of wakeman's -- wegman's if you live outside the northeast. if you are not outside this geographic concentration, maybe you have not.
slowlythey are trying to expand. the red are their existing locations. you consecrated -- concentrated. they are slowly spreading out. the grocer is trying to conquer new york. we have more details. >> imagine you combine the ,reath and size of a walmart the quality of a whole foods and the quirky appeal of trader joe's. you pull the -- put that in a blender, you get wegman's. i was looking for what companies -- you never want to say immune to this retail apocalypse but -- for the most resistant to it? that more than anyone else and it is because of the
experience they deliver in the stores. the grocery store chains. this is not. they only have 98 stores. they are private, family run for auto generations. they have fewer stores than walmart has in new york alone. when wegman's comes to town, people are like -- what is a wegman's? why are people getting so excited? why are people camping out the night before they open a store waiting for an iphone? you have to be in a store, interact with the employees, look at the food displays and the prices which -- as well some of which are no higher than your average supermarket. that is what is so special about it. it is not some high polluting cuisine where only the 1%, you can get your cocoa puffs but if
you want you can have a restaurant quality meal as well. the news is it is coming to brooklyn. a bold expansion, able display. matt: it is a former shipbuilding. it is a military base. the uss missouri was built there. it was decommissioned as we no longer needed as many ships after world war ii. it lay vacant for years and eventually the city to get over from the federal government but where the wegmans is going is this one area in the corner of of navy yard in the corner admirals road where the officers had their quarters. that was an eyesore. people were afraid to walk past it. it was overgrown. eventually in 2015, the city entity that manages the navy
yard awarded the development .ontract to doug steiner you might know him from steiner studios. it is a massive film production studio in the navy yard now. he worked with wegmans once or twice before. he knew they would be a great tenant. the challenge is wegmans has never been in a major metro area. they have stores on the outskirts of boston, rochester but rochester is not brooklyn. carol: we have got a new kind of cocktail debt. jason: they call them listening bars. carol: let's get all the facts. called -- opener is it is about listening bars which -- really theo to primary purpose of being there is listen to music. if you want to try one out, you can. they just built public records, which is a new place. lofty space, bright and very --
airy. you check quietly and listen to vinyl. jason: one thing you talk about is this motion of the volume of voices versus the volume of the music. it has got to be a balance. maybe in a way that is refreshing to those of us of a certain age. we are tired of going and yelling at our dining companions. our restaurant critic among the month to go and measure how well they are. they played music louder to get over the din. then you have to shout over the music. we did this story. this is the first time i learned about listening bars but people on my team are cooler than i am. they had known about it. you go to a bar. it has a great system. are you not allowed to talk? no. you can talk. people keep conversation quiet. of sonic paneling
and these great sound systems, it is a pleasure to listen to what is around you. jason: why'd you think as a consumer and connoisseur of so many new trends, why now? chris: it is one of those things we learned from the japanese. there is a bar in oakland which is basically the owners were in tokyo and they saw those bars there which were popular. is in this district. they said i cannot believe this does not exist in america. it should be a place to go and get a break, which is what bars are and this is a different way of catching a break and people love sounds and sound systems and they are not sensitive to a bar investment. it is another way to appreciate
music. bloomberg businessweek is available now. jason: also on mine and on our mobile app. carol: i had so much fun reading through the story on wegmans. i knew it from visiting my mother-in-law so i knew with it but most people do not know of this chain and a grocery market space that has had such a different -- difficult time. jason: the employees love it. it is an amazing tale. carol: i know it is your favorite story. jason: it is the cover story. jonah sarah is one of my all-time favorite journalists. i got this story and i thought, well this seems daunting. told.so well it is a story about hope, technology and ultimately it is a story about human nature. carol: it is not over. find more stories on business week.com. jason: check out our podcast.
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