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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  April 23, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> welcome to day break australia. side.aul allen in >> i'm at world headquarters in new york. >> i'm in hong kong. e're counting down to asia's major market opens. aul: the top stories we're covering in the next hour, u.s. stocks close at a record, but it may not last, a warning that the rally may soon end. new 2019 high with saudi arabia said to be wary of raisingout put to offset the impact of u.s. sanctions on iran. and twitter is also a winner,
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its highest in nine onths, the revenue added $4 billion in market cap. we'll hear from twit beat earning estimates. twitter helped mush the markets higher in this session on earnings from de coca cola and hasbro. those s&p out 80% of 500 companies that have reported expectations. beat the s&p 500 topping that 2930 evel closing at the highest level on record alongside the nasdaq. 1% at the .6 of highest level since october. still there are some warning being flashed by technical indicators. the s&p 500 has entered verbought territory on the 14-day r.s.i. let's see how we're shaping up in asia, though. for a we're waiting
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deluge of earnings. pointing to utures gain more ground after cracking points, the new zealand economy may be bottoming. sidney, aussie futures with after it cks gains rose 6,300 points edging closer to that decade high. board as we wait on australian inflation data, bonds rallied, rising on a rate ut from the r.b.a. which would reinforce if consumer price data is slower than expected in the reading. paul. paul: thanks very much for that, sophie. let's check on the first word summers.e is jessica jessica: thanks, paul, the state that lamic carried out the bombs is sri anda that killed 331 people
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wounded hundreds more. t's focused on a domestic jihadist group but it needed elp from abroad to carry out attacks. he breakity juggernaut is back in motion as u.c. lawmakers seek a new arty talks to seek agreement on a deal. they are looking for support to of brexit legs to a parliament vote next week. may could face a leadership challenge with one points ting another 17 ahead of the pack. u.s. auto regulators are 12 million e than vehicles for a potentially that could stop air bags deploying in a crash. iny were two major accidents which the air bags didn't play cars.yota
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something called electrical overstress can make them fail. warren buffett owns a print media empire, even he thinks the ews are numbered for newspapers. speaking to yahoo! fans, the decline of advertising has a ned the papers from monopoly to merely competitive. he added that the world has dramatically and most papers are, quote, toast. cutting jobs to cope with declining ad revenue. day on ews 24 hours a air and at tictoc on twitter 2,700 by more than journalists and analysts in more than 1100 companies. summers.ica this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. back to the u.s. markets where hit record highs on the back of better than forecast earnings. let's bring in sarah, the last time that we saw the s&p 500
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these levels was back in september. what is different now? as septemberlevels but a different backdrop. you look at treasury yields 3% now they're below 2.6%. that really factors into the valuation picture. at the same time we have been endlessly about the fed pivot, but that really is a large difference from then until the fact that the fed is benign, they're really on the sidelines. those are two of the large differences between now and then and also investors talking about of euphoria. bank of america putting out data showing that equity funds so far this year have seen $90 billion worth of outflows and entering year right before we got into a bit of a rough patch some uld call it, we saw euphoria. paul: sarah, earnings so far have been pretty strong. where is the focus as we head into the back half of the week, though? very earnings have been strong, twitter this morning up
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15% on the back of strong sales growth, strong user growth. cola, the likes of coca lockheed martin rising after earnings. exas instruments, a lot of focus heading into the after market trading. when you think about large, ductor socks at they're up more than 36% this year. so when it comes to a emiconductor giant like this, investors want to make sure that this makes sense and nterestingly enough, when you look at texas instruments, we did see a spike immediately in the aftermarket trading up about 5%, but we have seen it come back after the c.f.o. warned bout slumping semiconduct demand. this is reflective of where the focus is really going to be the rest of the week because we have microsoft, we have amazon, we have facebook all reporting earnings. that have ll names seen such large growth, specially in this month, so there is kind of a high bar set or them as we get these numbers.
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going on with energy stocks? sarah: crude oil up more than 45%. energy up a healthy 20%. return, e mad at a 20% but still many on wall street re asks themselves why are we seeing the large divergence. it's the widest in a decade. gap.ally is a large we are seeing the likes of j.p. morgan coming out and saying stocks stood rise, they should play a game of catch-up. t looks like energy stocks after a 2% gain we saw yesterday are banging up against the 200 average.ay flat.energy stocks are sarah ponczek t, thank you for that. it will play how in the r.b.a.'s strong jobs and growth conundrum.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: we are counting down to lookingey open, futures moment.bad at the looking for numbers later on, not expecting great things, but is first quarter traditionally a little soft. in sidney.len in new i'm shery ahn york. loomberg's jessica summers is here with today's trading. jess, the question here and now s whether or not this rally will last, right? jessica: exactly, we have seen rally yesterday and closing at the highest level in six months inching close to that $75 a barrel mark, that is after the trump administration has come out and said there will be
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to the iran sanctions waivers. he said that saudi arabia will supply gap. that's an interesting point. we had reports today that saudi rabia actually is a bit more tentative, a little bit more cautious in doing so. bloomberg sources telling us to really wait until production and exports decline before significantly boosting output. thanks for that. for more on the direction of crude prices, let's bring in the energy and utilities at nasdaq. have you with us. saudi arabia may not really hold deal of ir part of the boosting supply, so what can we of opec plus s actually helping support the market? >> i think that saudi arabia is preemptively add barrels to the market until they signs that the market is rising further and title with supplies. he best we can expect from
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saudi arabia, they would add to the barrels a day market. that is an amount that would leave them in compliance with opec production cut. they are in a balancing act as they always are when we are discussing this. if they add more barrel to the 500,000 han that 400 to barrel range, they risk unwinding the entire opec deal. have russia and other members say, if you're going to pump more, we're going to pump game on for the market price strategy. prices start to crater again. want. not what they shery: we have heard from ran's oil minister, the u.s. ttempt to bring iranian oil won't work. production is a blue bar showing that production has fallen off but when you take a there has fact that
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still been buyers, china, india so forth, they have been gaining ground again. how much of a cut do you expect from iranian exports? >> the market was pricing in a further loss of 500,000 barrels gaining ground again. how much of a a day, that was our base case. administration saying we're going to cancel all of the waivers and not going to them at lower levels. that number could jump to 800,000 barrels a day. you have an ample black market with india and china. opposed to much these sanctions. they're going to continue to import and saudi, if they wanted certainly has more than enough capacity to single-handedly compensate for of the barrels lost from iran. paul: a question for chemistry out there. what crude does export and can u.s. shale or by is it more complicated? >> it's a great question.
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has a very light grade of oil. they also have a more sour grade and so really the heavier and sour grades of oil, that's eally what is in short supply in the market right now. we have lost that output from from canada and from saudi as well. that's not really easily in thed by the shale oil u.s. which is light sweet, the light sweet is really better for gasoline, the heavier grades of oil is better for producing diesel. hat's where we see the most demand in terms of looking at the product complex around the world. paul: in terms of supply, how closely are you watching those of civil unrest in libya and venezuela, how much factors have to drive the oil price? >> those are huge wild cards, talking about iran and what is saudi going to do, about whetherking there will be secondary from venezuela, the real wild card is
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on in libya with the civil war there. e have seen massive swings in libyan production going from a low of 300,000 barrels a day to $1.1 million barrels a day in a short period of time. if the u.s. administration is on g to tighten the screws both venezuela and iran, then hat really is contingent upon having more stability in libya. we see that with change in tactic in terms of who the u.s. supporting in libya right now. that's really a massive wild card that can really stoke much higher going forward. hery: what about the risk of iran threatening to shut the horuse?of >> it would be a massive act of prices it did happen, could spike exponentially. sanctions from iran for the upside comes from
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tensions.cal iran is very irate. ore hard-liners in leadership right now. it's not so much they threaten o close the straits, but what do they do in other parts of the region that ratchets up tensions adds a geopolitical bid to oil. depend how much does it on the u.s. china trade deal when it comes to china's behavior? it.hat's a big part of that will term how compliant china is with these sanctions. don't think they will be that compliant. if there is a trade deal, that be d alter the equation and supportive for prices because it could be supportive of demand. a lackluster with demand outlook. if we get a trade deal, that ould boost confidence and help the demand outlook. paul: if we look ahead to the do you see where crude prices by then? calculate ult to given all of the wild cards. prices continue to strengthen
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into the summer, a strong period it's the easonally highest demand period, especially in the backdrop of termone rushing to be near compliant with the iran sanctions. i think prices go higher from ere before they ultimately peter out and could end the year around 55 to 60 for w.t.i. certainly risk to the upside, especially if any of these geopolitical tensions up which is certainly a possibility. tamar essner ght, hank you very much, director for energy and utilities. you can get a round-up of the stories to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak." mobile and theon bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize your settings getting news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪
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shery: this is bloomberg global link with paul allen and emily francisco.an let's take a look at the top day.l tech stories of the emily. company of parent napchat, it raked in $300 million and saw it's first increase in daily users in a year. from december's record low. in the meantime, texas up update gave forecast bolstering optimism a t they are emerging from slide in demand. a nings are as much as $1.32 share and revenue at $3.7 billion. google's drone delivery business has been cleared for takeoff. droneviation is the first operator to receive u.s. government approval as an
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irline given it the legal authority to begin flying products to customers. don't permit most flights over crowds and urban will deliver g small consumer items to rural areas within months. the most shares surged since 2017, it reported first strong growth nd as they beat estimates on both earnings and revenue and posted in monetizable daily app users to 134 million. that's twitter's new self-reporting met tricks. the company continues to crack down on the spread of misinformation and fake accounts. i sat down with twitter's c.f.o. nd asked about the company's growth strategy, take a listen. >> we actually feel it's perfect transparency, it's the number we goal against internally. people tive users are who go to twitter.com or one of the apps that you use on your log in and see ads every day. we can't think of a number that ould be more simple or
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transparent than that to share with people and importantly, a s the exact number we have goal against internally. we have a number externally which was monthly active usage. get people to come to twitter once a month, we have failed. come every dayto and see value in twitter and keep coming back to find out about things are happening in world and people are talking about. emily: monthly active users, that's the number you're going stop reporting. it's continuing to decline, international growth seems to be slowing down, your revenue for q2 was a little light. this? we be worried about > on m.a.u., it's more inclusive metric. people get text messages and tweets in them that we are not that ing around right now aren't about the best experience you can get with twitter. that number has moved around. in heavy knew growth, we drove
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began oad recovery that outside the united states. they get harder in the second half of the year in the united states. that's not meant as an excuse. it's just the math and how it works. and the enge for us work that we'll endeavor to undertake all year is continuing products, the ad continuing to drive better relevance and better ad formats that we can deliver great results regardless of what the year.h rates were last emily: you have been working on improving the health of the latform, 38% of content is flagged by technology and for human review, is that correct? 38% of the abusive tweets that we ultimately review are by machine d learning as opposed to by humans. that's correct. how much realistically can you get that number up? how much work can the technology and how fast? >> we think it can do more. it will be hard to get to perfect. goal is for us to have really clear policies, to have a
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roduct that can enforce the policies and have really good people behind the product who can support the product and policies. the hopefully that 38% goes up. we're proud of the progress that we're making. paul: for more on twitter's results, let's bring in our tech reporter. what drove the positive results this quarter and what is working advertisers? >> twitter not only beat revenue estimates and they grew users by a wide margin, far more than what analysts had been expecting. some of shows is that their improvements in trying to make the product easier to use investing in new ad formats like video has paid off. are going to follow and they are able to attract user number, the monthly active user number is stagnant. advertisingging the dollars back to the surface. shery: right after that interview, jack dorsey sat down
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n a closed door meeting with trump. trump, a huge user of the critical atform but with how twitter treats republicans, has lost many thousands of followers as a of some of the cleanup, so has jack dorsey. platform of the remains a priority. hat do you make of jack's priorities for the coming here on the heels of the meeting with the president? >> the first point in terms of tweet from donald trump this morning as well as the meeting with donald trump and jack from , what i have heard the company is that it was a meeting to talk about the health that it's the , been their long term priorities trying to tter is combat the ongoing opioid crisis. in terms of his priorities for year, he has reiterated over and over again, jack dorsey has, improving the of the service, getting toxicity on service is
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goal.number one they're hiring a lot more people to do that as well. critics, they see this as too little too late, it is clear they're making progress. you spoke to ned segal about this earlier, prior to the more abusive nths, 0% of content that twitter was taking ction on was flagged by their own intentional systems. they were putting the burden on ictims to self-report this content. that is a huge step forward that twitter is finally making after criticism on this front. aul: selena, what are we to make of the change in the way that witter reports metric, monthly active user is no longer a thing, it's daily users. we heard ned segal give a justification for that. reasonable? >> well, there is a few ways to look at it. rom twitter's perspective they said that daily active users are the metric they weigh themselves
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against internally. this is what advertisers really care about. hey want to be valuable to users several times a day. they don't care as much about the user that only is logging in a month or so. however, it is convenient at timing is that they're choosing to change the metrics. they're finally agreeing to give and the public a view into what the actual daily active user numbers were. on e was a lot of pressure the company to give this number transparency earlier. inquired as to why twitter wasn't disclosing this metric. he fact that they're timely doing it now, they have the momentum to not be embarrassed this is metric is. hery: we'll be seeing how it progresses. thanks so much, back to you. technology mberg global link, and another big ech guest coming up, our
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exclusive interview with the global c.e.o., but up next, from the coca cola's executive. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is 8:30 a.m. in sydney with the market open just 90 minutes away. futures pointing i, a quarter of 1%. after a very strong evening but u.s. markets. i'm paul allen. shery: i'm shery ahn in new york. you are watching daybreak australia. the 10th first word news with jessica summers. jessica: the u.s. and china are both optimistic about trade talks saying substantial progress has been made, although more needs to be done. treasury secretary steve mnuchin and robert lighthizer are expected to fly to beijing next week. top chinese negotiator will travel to washington the week after. top white house economic aid
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larry kudlow says talks are going well. >> we made a heck of a lot of a further,nd on larger, broader scale in the history of any u.s.-china trade. i don't want to make a prediction on the forecast, but we have gotten closer and we are still working on the issues. jessica: new zealand and france to cohost a meeting of world leaders and tech bosses next month on how to stop social media being used to promote terrorism. the pair of talks aimed to release a pledge to eliminate extremist content on the internet. leaders will meet two months after a gunman killed 50 people at two months in christchurch. north korean state news says kim jong-un as left on a private train for his meeting with resident putin on thursday. the two leaders will hold talks and will concentrate on kim's
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nuclear program. the meeting follows the collapse of ki'ms second summit with president trump when they cannot find agreement over sanctions on disarmament. singapore finance minister has been promoted to deputy prime minister. a move that puts them on pole position to succeed the current p.m. he will take on the position may 1 and will retain the finance role, while also sharing the economy council. he suffered a stroke in 2016 but returned to work three months later. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. let's get back to sophie in hong kong for what to watch in australia markets this morning. sophie: aside from oil producers, broader commodity spaces in focus.
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bmw is to buy the raw material directly from mines in australia and morocco with a new supply to be used in next in ev's in 2020. alumina has received another downgrade, being cut to sell, as the stock slips further away from the end of february. aluminum prices drift ever lower. we are keeping our eye on gold producers as the precious metal slipped to a four-month low. waivers under that are than expected earnings. northern star in particular as they maintained the four-year forecast while boosting outlook for the third quarter. paul: thanks very much. let's get more on what we should be watching as trading gets underway in asia with david stringer in melbourne. you are looking at softbank. considering an investment in wire card and what is the
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broader outlook for the tech stock? we saw the earnings from twitter today. david: good morning. some interesting dynamics to sift through in the tech space. considering an investment that would give them about 5% of the german internet payment firm wirecard. short-term reasoning and long-term motivation. we have seen the market value fall about a quarter from the end of january. that is amid allegations of accounting wrongdoing. allegations the company deny. in the longer term, it is still developing. we have yet to see real global leader in emerge in the internet payment realm. certainly, this is an investment that will help wirecard. it is already a supplier to uber. it will help it grow in asia, key growth market. more broadly, as you set, we saw
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some of the bigger tech stocks propel those gain in the u.s. overnight. lifting to record highs on tuesday. we saw twitter, amazon both post results. more to come this week. the likes of microsoft also reporting earnings. shery: also, we had news of the key supplier of electric vehicle supply chain warning over slowing demand in china and south korea. what has been the fallout from that? david: well, that is right. we saw some of the larger lithium producers. lithium is the metal needed an electric vehicle batteries. we saw quite dramatic drops in those producers in tuesday's trading in the u.s.. the likes of the biggest lithium producer, closed about 4% down. rivals also declined.
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tuesday, the combined loss was about $900 million. all of this follows a statement from umicore in belgium, a company that has pivoted in the electric vehicle supply chain. it makes components and materials for batteries. it warned it will miss analyst'' profit forecast on slower demand of ev's from china and south korea. it went into asia trading today. i think investors will be looking to see if we see similar d some ofn china an those australian miners. certainly plenty to look at in that space as trading opens in asia. shery: thank you so much for that, david stringer, bloomberg senior reporter. texas instruments took a hit in after-hours trade after the cfo suggest the chip sector slump may continue.
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the bellwether chip company says demand is down across the board, but a bright spot could be 5g. let's bring in bloomberg intelligence in. we saw chipmakers really rally this year on expectations that growth would return in the second half, as shown from this chart on the bloomberg. how much weight does the cfo's comments carry? >> t.i. is a broad-based bellwether in the semiconductor space. its exposure to autos, electronics, personal's -- to be quite honest, it is ubiquitous in its presence. to have a company like that come out and say, look, we are not through -- there is no light at the end of the tunnel just yet and that 2q should be more of what we saw in 1q, it could suggest the dichotomy between fundamentals and valuations is still -- they are still the verging. you can see the remarkable rally in semiconductors which starts
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where earnings in 2019 have been going down and consensus has been weakening, but the stocks are rallying on the hopes of a second-half recovery. this period is a very good test of whether we see strength to the degree that people expect in semiconductor stocks. if that strength does not come through and does not come through heavily, then you are going to see valuations and fundamentals have to come together. they have to balance out. anand, what is the analysts saying about texas instruments? anand: 1q, if you look at 1q sales, they were better predominantly based on communications infrastructure. a significant portion of that being 5g ordering. everything else was downgraded autos was down, personal electronics was down. q2 is a continuation of that theme. you are seeing t.i. buildup in
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inventories. loadings to help balance out with demand. and, they're using this as an opportunity to strengthen themselves in the long run. you will probably see them reduce buybacks a little bit. they have always had that seller -- healthy balance between buybacks and dividends. they are doing all the right things for the long-term. they are incredibly disciplined. they are using this as a good opportunity to do things right for the long-term. in the near term, 2q is weak. across the board. shery: just quickly, we have elon musk's swipe at semiconductors last night. what did you think? anand: the driverless car process is a journey, not a definition. people look at it from this one is the holy grail. that is not the case. you have to look at all system performance. he has a good point, but at the same time you have to compare
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apples to apples. let's not get carried away i one car company or one individual. it is a journey, not a destination. shery: good what. paul: anand from bloomberg intelligence, thank you. coca-cola shares rose after the company posted a profit beat. bloomberg spoke with ceo james quincey about the impact of brexit and coke's business strategy. james: the first step in broaderhing and using a coffee platform will be the ready to drink coffees we will be rolling out in the second quarter. then, we are working with the management team there to really update the plans and the visions we saw for accelerating not just the ready to drink coffee, but the vending machines and stores in europe and in asia. we will be pulling all of that together in the course of this year and you will see more as we move forward.
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>> staying with the u.k. for a moment, one of the things we have seen over the last couple of months is bottlers building inventory in advance of brexit. now that we have a six-month kind of hiatus -- probably the wrong word -- we have a pause in the potential exit coming through, how will the bottom lers handle that inventory? james: the inventory built is related to brexit, but it is specifically related to the potential disruptive, or a no deal brexit exit. it could have been the end of march and now it has been postponed at least until october. i think the approach we are going to take with our bottlers is going to probably center around keeping the inventory on hand through october or at least through until there is some clarity on how and when brexit will occur.
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this is inventory not just because brexit is going to happen, but the idea of a disruptive brexit, but it really problems at the ports in the travelrough which the through the u.k. and other european countries, that is what we are protecting against. if that risk were to disappear, obviously we could wind down that extra inventory. that has not happened yet. for now, we have to assume that will keep it through october. >> a high dividend payout ratio by 73%. what you of as to might do instead or if there would be better opportunities, say looking at acquisitions or internal investment? james: yeah, we got a high dividend coverage ratio, but our shareholders like our dividend. we certainly are focused on having that continue to grow into the future. we believe our capital structure has enough flex ability and space within it to both fund the
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dividend and future growth of the dividend, as well as make the acquisitions we need to make and reinvest organically in the business. of course, if something big were to happen on the m&a front, we can look at that, but the ongoing plan is invested in the core business, fund the dividend and m&a. we believe those three things can be done within the current capital structure on an ongoing basis. >> where might you be looking in terms of m&a and would you be considering expanding your interests in energy drinks? you have an 18.8% stake in monster beverage or example. james: in terms of bolt on m&a, the strategy is more regional because we are number one or number two in the broad categories across the world, but that is not a global average. it tends to because and traded positions in some parts of the
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world and gaps in the others. the bolt on strategy is about filling in in certain categories where we have less-developed positions around the world. that is really the focus of our m&a strategy going forward. shery: that was coca-cola ceo james quincey. we will get a number of asian companies reporting results this week, including canon later on wednesday. nintendo and nomura will follow on thursday. on friday, sony and agricultural bank of china will be the big ones to watch. coming up next, australian vpi figures out later this morning. expected to show a slight uptick in prices. we look ahead at the data with jana chen. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: i am shery ahn in new york. paul: i'm paul allen in sydney. you are watching daybreak australia.
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analysts expect australia's first quarter inflation data to further test the rba's resolve as domestic demand softens.however , it is unlikely after a strong jobs figure for last week. joining us is the deutsche bank senior economist. that does pretty much sum up one of the key issues for the reserve bank of australia. on the one hand, really strong employment figures, but really anemic wages growth and we have inflation. guest: that is right. inflation expected to stay very low. this morning, we are expecting .1% increase in headline rate. core rate to increase by just .3%. both annual rates have headline inflation which is expected to remain below the rba 223% target 3% target band.
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environment, i think, where i guess the scales are tipped towards a rate cut, but while the rba is a bit befuddled by the fact the labor market is strong, it is probably going to sit on its hands while that results. paul: i understand your outlook on inflation is weaker than the official estimate, about 2/10 of 1% for the first quarter. the first quarter is traditionally a bit soft, but where is the catalyst going to come from that gets inflation moving into the rba's target band? janu: that is a great question. we've got in the quarter prices bringing down the headline rate. overall, core prices, they are expected to remain subdued. an economy below par. wage growth not very strong. we still have competitive
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pressures, quite strong competitive pressures within the consumer sector. all of this is bringing down prices. not to mention the housing market. that also brings down housing costs. so, look, there is not a lot to suggest that inflation is going to be cut really. yeah. shery: you are talking about a slowing domestic economy. so, why is the labor market still so strong? we understand it is a lagging indicator, but wouldn't you expect it to soften quite soon? janu: it is a bit of a conundrum. i think it may be still take a bit of time for it to flow through. we do need to perhaps consider though that this strength in the labor market does persist, maybe it is capturing activity in the economy that is not captured in
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the traditional activity indicators. in saying that, there are a lot of areas of the economy which we know are hurting and it is not just based on the gdp numbers. we know that retailing in business surveys that is under a lot of pressure. the housing market, that will start hurting as well and flowing through more significantly through to the broader economy and jobs. i think maybe it will take a bit of time for that to occur, but you are right. it is a bit of a conundrum still. that do look to oversee there are instances where there are strong labor markets despite quite soft economic growth. revisit if that persists. comedata will, i guess,
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out. our view is eventually we will see that slowing in the labor market. shery: we have seen the australian dollar strengthening gradually over the past month. this gtv chart on the bloomberg showing how chinese you want has been steady. i have show you this because goldman sachs recently have this call that given this higher growth in china, but the fact flat,uan has remained that could translate to a stronger aussie dollar. where do you put the all the going forward? -- aussie going forward? janu: i think the risk to the sterling dollar are to the downside. but even though it has strengthened a little over the last month or so, it is still holding in this very tight range. it does not look like there is a lot of resistance around the mark but it is hard to see it
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rising significantly when you do have a big downside risk to the domestic economy. i think while the housing market is posing a downside risk to economic activity and to the tosumer, that is still going keep alive the idea that the rba is going to cut rates. the differential is bringing down, it is the downside risk for the australian dollar. offsetting that, we have commodity prices holding up quite well. china looking quite positive. i would say that at least in the near term, it is going to hold in this range. paul: just very quickly, we do have an election coming up in australia next month. are you keeping an eye on any political risk? i'm thinking if the opposition
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labor party wins, the might be some changes to rules, wages, or maybe changes to tax breaks on investment property and that could change the picture on housing. are you watching any of that? janu: if there is a change of government, then it is likely to be -- we would need to reassess the policy changes and impact. in the meantime, no matter who wins, it is creating uncertainty. that is definitely not helpful. guess withtime, i weighoncern, it can heavily on employment, investment. , it is in the near term creating that uncertainty. i think even in the past six months or so, maybe it has been already having that impact on sentiment, particularly in the housing market.
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perhaps some clarity after the election, that is going to be couple regardless of -- helpful regardless of who wins. paul: we will have the answer to that on may 18. thank you very much, janu chan. janu: thank you. paul: you can see our past interviews as well on the interactive tv function. there, you can also dive into any of the securities or bloomberg functions we talk about. plus, you can be part of the conversation by sending is instant messages. that is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out at tv this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. ebay proves it is noteworthy of online business, posting profit and sales forecast that beat estimates as the turnaround plan seems to be paying up.
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shares up 30% this year since elliott management and start board value started to shake up strategy. shery: harley davidson dodged tariffs to post better-than-expected profits, but saw first-quarter net income fall by a quarter. harley's strategy of moving production overseas drew more attention from president trump. this time, he focused his anger on the tariffs themselves, tweeting that they are so unfair to the u.s. paul: i want to seeing the biggest fault in industrial output in at least seven years after a decline in the manufacturing of electronic components and weakening tech sales and the ongoing china-u.s. trade war. factory performance fell almost 10% in march, well below even the most bearish estimate of a 2% decline. shery: plenty more still ahead in the next hour. we will have an exclusive interview with the ceo of vmware global, pat gelsinger. that is it for daybreak
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australia. we will get all the action on daybreak asia next. this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is hard.
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paul: good morning. i am paul allen in sydney. we are one hour away from the australian market open. shery: good evening. i have shery ahn. sophie: and i am sophie kamaruddin and hong kong. welcome to "daybreak asia." paul: our top story this wednesday, asia-pacific stocks look set for gains after wall street closed at new highs, but there are warnings the rally may soon come to an end. texas instruments falls after warning

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