tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg April 24, 2019 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: as we approach the end of trading in europe, basically we are down, but not by much, and aggregates. the dax outperforming, doing really well today relative to its peer group because wirecard is potentially in play, or at least softbank is taking a decent stake in the company, it would billion dollar investment into the business. convertible,ng the and the s&p has some cracking numbers as well. that is why the dax is outperforming. london is underperforming. stocks of bp, which did really well yesterday, not doing so
well today. that is interesting because the data out of germany today is not great. we are getting a fairly strong bid numbing into german bunds, as well. lower, prices higher in germany. continuing problems for the ecb. the aussie under pressure as well. the dollar continues to be reasonably strong at the moment, which is confounding quite a few people right now. one area that is certainly true is that in australia, we saw a hock onan inflation s the downside earlier on. so the aussie trading down quite significantly, down around 1%. it is all really about earnings. a bit of a story in europe about the data and what is going on in germany, but it is really being driven by the earnings story. what is happening with sap, with novartis, these kind of big
heavy weight stocks that are generally outperforming, but have been countered by the basic resources and oil story on the downside. vonnie: in the u.s., doesn't look like we are having too much movement on the major indices. the s&p 500 up just 1/10 of 1%. plenty of individual earnings stories to go on. anadarko petroleum is not an earnings story, but a deals story. we will speak with the ceo a little later on. you mentioned the u.s. dollar. i can show you the u.s. dollar 1%, butp about 1/10 of trading very close to 98 right now. we think willeld stay in the treasury market. well, we will be getting updates throughout the day on the call. it is up 1.4%. thattors a little relieved
perhaps there isn't more fallout --m boeing in th 737 max in the 737 max problem. then you have other stories overnight, including caterpillar, which actually put out some good news overnight. did better than forecast and had a bit of a tax benefit, expecting demand from china to be stronger. at the same time, the stock which started off the day higher is now down 2.5%, so those earnings giving investors just a little reason to sell. the other story i want to talk about is the chip story. we have seen a wonderful performance from the chip stocks, the index up nine days in a row or so. that seems to be continuing today. namesl get more faang this week like facebook and microsoft. guy: let's talk more about the
earnings story and what we are getting out of both the united states and europe. let's bring in marcus ashworth of bloomberg opinion. good afternoon. the earnings season is going reasonably well. u.s. stocks hitting record yesterday, european stocks, and big picture terms, not that far away either. is this earnings season known to be one that confirms the upward trajectory in stocks, or one that provides us with evidence we are late cycle, and as a result for a medium-term investor, i get nervous? marcus: i would take the former rather than the latter. i think everyone built in q1 to be a terrible quarter. forecasts now have gone from almost flat to nearly 3% in the last month or two. we expected the end of the trump tax cut boom. we had a cold snap. we had the u.s. government
shutdown. after all, we had a terrible q4. q1 has gotten better and better as it has gone along. q2 has started well, as well. we are right at the end of april. what happens after april? it is may. what you do? you sell and go away. u.s. stocks are doing pretty well. why? because there is nothing else better. the dollar is strong. why? because stocks are great. why are stocks great? because the economy is great. vonnie: why don't we have more rotation? leading.s are we are not getting much help from. health care marcus -- from health care. marcus: why would you rotate out of what is working? emerging markets are cheap, but not cheap enough to merit moving away from what you stuck to.
until it is obvious that it isn't working and we have a fed that has been very generous, and is clearly sending a message, it will continue to be very generous. brexit isn't happening, not for a while, anyway. we were so scared q1. we thought everything was going to go wrong, and it hasn't happened. until the moment that changes, i can't think of anything better. guy: german state all -- german data doesn't look too good, does it? marcus: and it doesn't bounce. until that happens, why go away from the states? vonnie: except that the dax is rallying today, marcus. marcus: don't get me wrong, europe is cheap, and as the states are up, europe is up, but lagging. there's no reason to suggest it
is going to catch or close that gap for the near-term. simply put, if there is any sort of decent use coming out of europe, europe will continue doing really well, but it any bounceo not have from china. guy: is the fed really done? you look at the stock market, you look at the earnings season thus far. russell is underperforming right now. the dollar is looking pretty strong. if anything, the u.s. really stands out as a begin at the moment. the one thing that could upset that is the fed going we needed to fix the problem, but maybe we now need to start reintroducing some fed rate hikes. is the market still being too complacent about pricing that out? clarita,i think the vice chair of the fed, has said it.
the fed is truly on hold at the moment. we will probably see quantitative tightening reigned in. that is dovish. i don't think we will see hike.r they want markets to continue to run hot. vonnie: there will be another trip to china from some of the u.s. representatives. do we get any kind of a breakthrough? our markets tired of the hold china trade narrative? marcus: it's going on forever. there's a lot going on here. china is the biggest importer of iranian oil. that is something that needs to be got out of the way so that china can make its other purchases and reduce the amount it takes from iran. these are just chucking a few things on top to get close to a
deal. i expect it to happen at some point. unfortunately, the benefit from that will be less because it has been so well flagged. i don't see it happening imminently, but who knows? guy: marcus ashworth joining us from bloomberg opinion. let's get more on the markets. andrew sheets joins us from morgan stanley. i bought your cross asset playbook -- i brought your cross asset playbook for 2019 in front of me. late cycle, weaker dollar. happening right now. when is it going to? guest: the dollar has certainly been stronger this week. it has been stronger over the last month. but i do think it is important to step back and take a look at the big picture. since december of last year, the the broad toddler -- u.s. dollar against developing market currencies has been weakening. i think that weakening makes
sense. i think it is corresponding to a relative peak in u.s. growth relative to the rest of the world. i think it is responding to a relative peak in u.s. monetary policy expectations versus the rest of the world. this is a trend that is going to have some changes in it, but i do think we have seen that high, and i think what catalyzes it going forward is a continued sign that the better parts of the story gravelly are generally outside of the u.s., coming out of asia, and that the u.s. does have tougher fiscal policy comparisons as the year goes on. vonnie: where does that leave us for a run rate on gdp growth for the year? we have u.s. gdp growth at around 2% full before year -- 2% for the full year. i think that will look relatively low to what we are seeing out of china and asia.
this relative fiscal policy story is a pretty important one. the u.s. has a big sugar rush added to it. meanwhile, china is pushing a lot of fiscal policy into the economy. europe is going to be running the easiest fiscal policy this year it has in a long time. so that relative fiscal boost story is a really big deal. i think it was an underappreciated aspect about why u.s. growth has looked so strong over the last 18 months. as that goes away, i think it will cause the u.s. data to continue to look like it is data to accelerate, while elsewhere stabilizes. vonnie: what might you have in 2020 that would impact your model? adrew: i think it is probably little too early right now. away, still a long way
eight months away from the iowa caucuses. the market will not focus on this, i think. i think it is going to be a major focus for markets. i think it will dominate a lot of the discussion around 2020. it will be a major event the market will have to assign some uncertainty to throughout a lot of 2020. this goes a little bit to the u.s. versus the rest of the world story. this is going to be in present overhat is the u.s. market that won't be present and some other markets that have had their own political uncertainty. not saying that we are primarily focused on now, but something that will over time be in uncertainty that will increasingly hang over the u.s. market. , more european data came out this morning on the downside. it ain't looking particularly clever right now.
when does that data bounce? andrew: the work that are economists have done suggests there is around a three month lag between the drop in china pmi's in the drop in european pmi's. last month, we think we've had ,hat trough in the leg number so i think that in may or june you will see the european numbers approve more meaningfully. that is how we are currently thinking about it. we are thinking through the worst of the auto production story as well. vonnie: andrew sheets of morgan stanley, thank you for that. speaking of the president, we are going to get to him right now in washington, d.c. [laughter] -- in washington, d.c. pres. trump: unemployment numbers are the best they have ever been, by far. we have almost one under 60 million people working today in the united states, more than
we've ever had working -- 160 million people working today in the united states, more than we've ever had working. things are going well with trade. things are going well with china. the first lady is working very hard on the opioid crisis. we are down about 17% from last year, which is pretty amazing. we are down 17%, but the opioid problem is a big problem. it is a big addiction, and we are handling it. the doctors are working with us. the labs are working, the cli nics, the pharmaceutical companies are working with us, and we've made from it is progress. john, go ahead. [indiscernible] pres. trump: the subpoena is ridiculous. i have been the most transparent president and administration in the history of our country by far. we just went through the mueller witchhunt, where you had 18
angry democrats that hate president trump -- they hate him with a passion. they were contributors in many cases to hillary clinton. hate him with a passion. how they pick this panel, i don't know. they came up with no collusion and also no obstruction, but our attorney general, based on the information, there was no obstruction. so you have no collusion, no obstruction. now we are finished with it, and i thought after two years, we be finished with it. no, now the house goes and starts subpoenaing. they want to know every deal i've ever done. for 35, i assume, million dollars, checked my financials, which are great, by the way. all you have to do is go look at the records. they are all over the place. they checked my financials and my taxes, i assume. it was the most thorough investigation probably in the history of our country.
i think i read where they interviewed 500 people. i say it's enough. get back to infrastructure. get back to cutting taxes. get back to lowering drug prices. really, that's what we should be doing. [indiscernible] pres. trump: we are fighting all of the subpoenas. these aren't impartial people. the democrats are trying to win 2020. they are not going to win with the people i see, and they are not going to win against me. the only way they can maybe luck out -- and i don't like that is going to happen. it might make it even the opposite. that is what people are saying. the only way they can luck out is by constantly going after be on nonsense, but they should be really focused on legislation, not the things that have been -- that has been litigated, just so you understand.
this has been litigated for the past two years, since i got into office. if you want to litigate, go after the dnc, crooked hillary, the dirty cops, all of these things. that is what should be litigated because that was a rigged system , and i'm breaking down the swamp. if you look at what is happening, they are getting caught. they are getting fired. who knows what's going to happen from now on? i hope it is very strong. if you look at draining the swamp, i am draining the swamp. thank you very much. >> do you still believe robert mueller acted honorably, mr. president? vonnie: there you have it. president donald trump and the first lady are on their way to atlanta, georgia, speaking to the press for a few moments in washington, d.c. about the subpoenas, the mueller report, the house wanting to know "every deal i've ever done."
he says, "they've checked my financials. they checked my taxes. get back to infrastructure. get back to cutting taxes. china."oing well on let's see if there was any kind of market reaction now with abigail doolittle. abigail: not a lot of market reaction to president trump's comments. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq slightly higher. that was true ahead of those comments. reversing very small decline from earlier today after we had those record-setting days .esterday higher on the day, on pace for a new set of record closing highs, and he nasdaq has put in an all-time high. the s&p 500 close to doing that, but not quite yet. the chip index helping out the nasdaq, driven by texas instruments, which put out a strong earnings report, among other companies. mainly a bit of a risk on tone.
that is true, too, in europe. the dax up for the ninth day in a row, the biggest winning streak going back to 2015. up 3.8% over that time period. what makes that interesting is that there has been a slew of weak data, but investors looking past it, perhaps giving the feeling that the central banks have investors' backs. we have leaders and laggards to the upside. we have this haven board. we have stocks higher. we also have haven bonds higher. down six basis points, back with a negative yield. the fact we have investors going towards bonds while they are going towards stocks suggests not all is well. investors trying to figure out what is next. the euro-yen down for a second
day in a row. haven yen doing better against the growth-ier euro. crude depicting a bit of a risk off picture. take a look at ebay and billing, both trading higher after -- and boeing, both trading higher after earnings. boeing suspended their outlook for some pricing around the 737 8.,=. -- 737 max it will be interesting to see what big tech reports bring after the close. guy: let's pick up and talk more about what is happening with boeing. coming up, we continue the conversation. the call is on right now. shares beginning to roll over a little bit. the ceo not offering many specifics on the max issues the company is facing right now. we are going to be monitoring the call. there is a topline on your be in berg -- on your bloomberg to do
♪ guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: let's turn our attention to what is happening with boeing. stocks beginning to fade a little bit. the company is very much focused on what is happening with the max. it is abandoning its 2019 forecast as it deals with the aftermath of the two deadly crashes that affected the airframe. let's find out what is happening on the call and why the stock is beginning to fade a little bit. taylor riggs has been monitoring what has been happening.
taylor: you had shares rising after the ceo came on the call and was expressing his condolences, and reaffirming they are still seeing strength and some of the other markets despite the tragedies and the groundings of those 737 max jets. we did get a question from bank of america analysts asking how did this happen. the ceo saying there was a series of chained events that happened. they are reviewing that software , but with no new technical update with the software. they are still looking into how looking for the regulators to come in and review that. as we are sifting through the questions, i want to talk about what we got from the ceo at the top of the call, coming out and expressing his condolences to the victim of the -- the victims of the crashes, but reassuring that the company is focused on safety and excellence, that it
is our job to make these planes safe before we return them. they have taken those 737 max operators through the redesign of the software on 135 tests flights, but again, scrapping that forward guidance given that they do not have any updated financials and will not have any until they get more information about what went wrong and hear from regulators about when they can start to rollout production of those 737 max jets. we will await more questions from the call and give you updates as they come. vonnie: our thanks to taylor riggs. it is time now for your latest bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. occidental petroleum is starting a bidding war for anadarko on a 38 billion dollar counter offer
to break up the supposed takeover -- the proposed takeover by chevron. it rep since a 20% premium to the chevron offer. at&t is losing more customers than expected. the company lost more than 200,000 wireless subscribers, and more than 600,000 tv subscribers in the first quarter. at&t is down 3.8%. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. guy: let's talk about the european markets. a few minutes until the end of regular trading. underperformance on the ftse 100. miners and oil stocks trading lower. the dax outperforming. wirecard really driving that. we will look at that when we return. this is bloomberg. ♪ . this is bloomberg. ♪ w?w?uhió'ñó
we have been watching them both sides of the atlantic probably earnings have been going down. interesting to see the reactions we are getting. some actions in europe positive. as a p1 we will talk about it -- s.a.p. one we will talk about just moment. yesterday we saw the stocks trading strongly. that faded a bit. the miners are coming up. part of australia and part of china, part of it is the fact that some of the stocks doing well. the ftse 100 fitting a little bit, down .7%. the same cannot be said for the dax. two stocks driving this picture. s.a.p. and wirecard. up by 8%. not an earnings story. this is a company that has been troubled because of the investigations into its accounting but softbank has decided it will take a $1 billion stake in the payment
company. that comes by convertible bonds. the stock rallying strongly with a strong backer behind it. providing stability to wirecard's story. the real story has been driven by sap. europe does not have much tech. after the u.s. close we will get a lot of u.s. tech. europe does not have much, so when it shines it is important. sap up 12%, raising its target. it is a company in the middle of a revamp. everything seems to be going reasonably well judging by the upgraded numbers today. sap trading strongly. the banking sector is starting to come into focus. .e have credit suisse today the trading business is doing all right. is that an indicator the rest of the sector? we will talk about that in a moment. credit suisse trading flat. nobody reacting.
ubs tomorrow, deutsche bank toward the end of the week, the bank stock will be firmly in focus. let's see how this works out from a sector point of view. i mentioned how important technology is today. look at that. far and away the most important sector. it does not have the weight it has in the united states. technology trading up 3.8%. construction doing reasonably well. industrials doing reasonably well. the bottom end of the market, i mentioned by -- why london is underperforming because of the metals and oil companies. basic resources down 1.46. the dax has a drag is result of the auto sector, but in terms of the weight in some of those big resource companies that are dragging us down. those sectors knocking the stuffing out of the ftse 100. it is not a massive move, but this is where it is coming from. that is look at the european
market driven by earnings, a little bit of m&a in the mix but the earnings story continues to dominate. david: here in the -- vonnie: here in the u.s., earnings from facebook and microsoft earning on -- later on. we had dip lying yesterday -- buying yesterday after such a negative month. today some action and currency markets. the u.s. dollar index continuing to strengthen, close to 98. the canadian dollar is weakening after the central bank became a more dovish and it kept interest rates on hold. at $65.73, down another two cents, $.56 lower after inventories and the continuing iran story. the 10 year yield down to 2.52%. that level is holding. let's move to see some of the other currencies on our global macro movers.
the australian dollar is also weakening as some of the oil currencies like the russian ruble. inflation in australia came in tamer than forecast and people in australia are thinking maybe there will be a rate cut from the central bank. that has stocks in australia higher. that was the overnight session. russia suffering on the oil story. guy: let's get back to the earnings and the banking sector in europe. credit suisse out with numbers earlier on, reporting results, actually looking pretty good. the banks global markets unit, the investment bank posting a profit after two quarters of losses. francine lacqua spoke with the company's ceo about that strong performance. positive, highis consumer confidence, let's slow down because incentive to produce is paying but it is still positive growth -- is
fading but it is still positive growth. we will take advantage of that. asia is doing better, china is doing better. numbers are still below q1 2018. 2018 in asia was strong. we are seeing below that, but healthy. europe is always a pressure zone. francine: because of what? interest rates? >> germany, the car industry is .truggling we have the good fortune of , where swiss bank everything is very good and we are doing extremely well. we are the first to announce the european banks, so i cannot talk about the others. we are pleased with the performance, we are pleased for
our people, particularly in global markets. we were under intense criticism and intense pressure, and i'm sure we will have difficult quarters, but what we wanted to show is it is a viable business and it is now delivering by working more closely with wealth management, which is what we have always wanted. 3%11% 2018 over 2017 and up 2019 over 2018. a smile on his face today. many smiles during the interview. the markets division is performing. can that be replicated by credit suisse in the next quarter and other european banks? let's find out. , buts reason to be happy does one quarter make a turnaround? markets hard to predict. >> absolutely.
if you drill down below the headlines you are finding that the first quarter was driven by the equities, by the ips units that is a joint venture between those businesses and wealth management and trading. that is serving wealthy clients to bring together structured equity derivatives. the kind you cannot necessarily count on quarter to quarter. vonnie: how long do we have? it is not like there are many choices when it comes to european bank ceos, but are investors happy with his performance? elisa: he has completed the restructuring of the bank and pivoted away from an investment banking driven business to a wealth manager. having said that, they are still not where they want to be in terms of return on tangible equities, the profitability metric is behind and to get to where they want to be in 2019, they need revenue to pick up and
that that cannot -- that did not happen in the first quarter. there is not much of a sense they will be together this year. the management did strike a very optimistic tone on march and business well into april. maltese turned tomorrow. there is talk that ubs and dws, the etch it management division -- the asset management division at deutsche in advanced talks. will we learn anything about that? elisa: investors will be hoping they learn more. there is talk they are in discussions about some kind of combination. it appears deutsche bank would like to have control of the combined entity. dws under ownership of deutsche bank. the devil will be in the details of that transaction if there is a transaction. huge pressure ringing together two european asset managers make
sense. you do need scale and to lower cost. it will depend on what that detail will look like. guy: request -- vonnie: quick question on wirecard. the shortselling ban has gone away and there have been to elements. ring is up-to-date. elisa: a busy 20 -- bring us up-to-date. elisa: a busy 24 hours. over last hour or so, a special report on accounting practices that will need more clarity as the show is retreating. we will be learning a lot more tomorrow. indeed.nk you very much plenty of m&a to talk about in the united states, particularly in the oil sector. vonnie: the first major bidding war has broken out in the occidental petroleum
makes an offer for anadarko. joining us is simon casey with our energy team. we were anticipating it thinking it will not happen because it is crazy, and then it did happen. weeks,going back does go chevron made the announcement they had agreed to buy anadarko and that morning we confirmed reports that occidental also expressed an interest at a higher per share offer that is being rebuffed. there was some expectation there might be another bid. if you look at the last week, the anadarko share price has been trading above the chevron price. it is a little bit of a surprise this morning to see it come through this quickly. occidental have come out and gone public but they've not engaged. they put the letter in the public domain and now the ball is in anadarko's corner and chevron's corner, whether they come through with a higher offer. is all about who has
the balance sheet strength to make this work. presumably chevron has the bigger balance sheet. will that be decisive? simon: most likely. we will see. if you look at the reaction that has come through this morning from the initial analysts and comments that followed the news, there is questioning about how much further chevron would want to take this. they have the firepower and the capacity to do this. they can probably top occidental's offer and still make a decent return. what is being notable is a lot weanalysts are saying question the benefits of any bidding war breaking out. we have a deal that has been agreed, maybe let's stick with this one. vonnie: wise anadarko doing this? it obviously needs something and is getting a boost in terms of share prices on the idea that it
is looking. if it is not going to win and it is too expensive, why do this? simon: it is a great deal for anadarko. as occidental said, if you look at their share price, in the last few weeks it has gone up. it had been underperforming. for occidental, putting the companies together takes two companies. they are large but they are in the second-tier. it creates a clear third place in the u.s. oil and gas space. it increases the size. guy: does the deal make more sense if they were to dispose of the mozambique assets? simon: that is subject to intense debate right now. i think there is an expectation that occidental would eventually look to sell that project. there was a conference call
earlier today and occidental ceo made it clear they are comfortable developing the project, continuing with that project. she was trying to temper expectations. occidental is not an lng company. it is not known as being a gas producer on that kind of scale. that could be one of the assets that goes on the block. vonnie: this will be continued. occidental making an anadarko bid. thanks to bloomberg's simon casey. let's check in on bloomberg's first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: president trump is making a new threat to send armed soldiers to the u.s.-mexico border. that tweeted that you -- mexican soldiers pulled guns on american national guard soldiers are he warned it better not happen again. u.s. soldiers in a remote region of texas were recently confronted by mexican soldiers.
the mexican troops reportedly removed a weapon from one of the american soldiers. the u.k. is set to toughen the rules under which one way operates -- which one way ei operateswhich huaw in the country that will stop short of an outright ban. the trump administration has been working -- the equipment is horrible to chinese espionage. saudi arabia is signaling a conscious -- a cautious response to the u.s. decision to tighten sanctions on iran. issuing will stop sanction waivers on countries that buy oil from iran. washington expects the saudi's and other opec countries to boost production. here's the saudi oil minister. >> i do not see the need to do anything immediately. we will not leave our customers scrambling. we can balance all of those. not an easy job, but we will make sure the oil markets
globally are in balance, and the customers and those who want to -- they know which number to dial and we are ready for that. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. guy? guy: thank you very much. let's take a look at where european markets are settling. we have the ftse 100 under pressure. all stocks dragging it down. not much movement during the auction process. the dax a little higher, up .6%. wirecard did fade in the last hour. the company denies the latest story on its accounting but early on that move by softbank squeezing some of the short that had been reapplied to this business. if you want to tune in and continue the coverage of these markets, there is plenty of ways to go for the u.s. markets and a
in the first quarter you a beat and the top and bottom line. earnings-per-share $2.94 above estimates. that was driven by mining which grew 18% in the quarter, vastly outpacing the revenue growth in their other businesses. that is not to say there were not concerns. on one hand, inventories grew by $1.3 billion, a bigger increase than a year earlier and they also cited cost pressures. asia grew by 9% that you compare that to revenue growth of 43% in this quarter in 2018, that is a concern. they did say they expect demand in china to increase that sales will be flat. the cfo spoke to bloomberg, saying that might lose market share in china because of aggressive pricing by some of their competitors. that is lending to fears they have hit the high water mark and this is as good as it gets. guy: shares not moving a lot. and a surprising out of that
call? kailey: it does not seem the market is surprised but we are getting color. the cfo said the second half should prove and in the second half they expect improvements from mining and energy, say they expect oil and gas to be strong. also saying inventory should be strong and he is touching on tariffs. he says caterpillar will see the impact of tariffs until the second quarter and noting the a traderiffs -- resolution would be good for caterpillar and those are continuing to trickle out. the conference call is still ongoing. you can follow that on the top live function on the bloomberg terminal. vonnie: kailey leinz will be back later. coming up is our global battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
global battle of the charts. you can always see these charts on the bloomberg on gtv . kicking things off his eric balchunas of bloomberg intelligence. eric: tlt took in a bomb of money, $2.1 million. this could be incorporated -- interpreted as a bearish sign. i think it is red is bullish and i will show you why. if you look at treasuries etf's representing different donation -- different durations, you can see there is a positive performance. the white line is long dated treasuries, tlt, and then there is i.e. i and here is the short dated. last year this flatline was winning the race. the shorter the duration, the better you did. this year, the longer the duration the better you are doing. this is a bullish signal consistent with all the money going into equity etf which is based on the same thing. no fed fear.
if anything, the rates might be lower. vonnie: i like it. that is unusual. we have not talked about duration in a wild. at least a few hours. let'ss talk about -- guy: talk about whether the ecb is pulling on a piece of string. the ecb is trying to provide a lot of liquidity to the european economy in the hopes that will get the wheel turning when it comes to the economy. thedomestic economy in eurozone is doing better than the export driven part of the economy. nevertheless you have to worry about whether that will continue to be the case. this is a chart of an ecb survey that is done of consumer demand for credit or appetite for credit. since 2015, it has been moving in the wrong direction and recently it has taken another significant led lower. what can the ecb do to infuse the european consumer with the
idea that taking on a little bit more credit, spending more money , getting the economy going is something that is a good idea. whatever they are doing is not working. you can put as much liquidity into the system, but if there is no demand for it, you have a significant problem. the transmission mechanism is not working. how does the ecb figure this out? that is the big question. mario draghi will be going shortly. this encapsulates the problem the ecb faces. it has to find a way of getting the wheels spinning when it comes to domestic economy in the eurozone. do notmoment, europeans feel they are confident enough about the economic situation to spend money. push this needs a fiscal to get this going and provide clarity to see there are jobs out there. ,f i was inheriting the ecb this would be one of the big
charts i'm worried about. european consumers do not want credit despite the fact that a lot of it is available. vonnie: both of you guys would always be the leader board in battle of the chart contestants. it is a tough one. eric balchunas today. guy: i think that is more than deserved. rumored watch etf iq with eric balchunas. that is coming up 1:00 new york time, 6:00 london time, 1:00 a.m. hong kong time. coming up on balance of power, mark weinberger, ui chairman and steel inlix conversation with the huxley president and ceo, next. ♪
on the briefs today, shaun donovan on u.s. china trade tuesdayt to resume next and the growing confrontation over white house officials participating in investigations. mnuchin andsteven robert lighthizer will be going to beijing next tuesday. is this all over but the shouting? shawn: we have been in this end game for a while. we know they are getting close to something. we do not know when the end of the end game will come, but this is a great time when they are getting closer. we are also hearing a move to try to wrap this up, to get a draft deal done by the end of may. the hope is robert lighthizer and steven mnuchin in beijing next week will now down a few things. that will cause a return visit the week after i the chinese vice premier