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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  April 25, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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in new york -- it's 10:00 a.m. in new york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: the s&p 500 is down fractionally, but we have seen some blow away earnings, not least from microsoft, which has and is a trillion massive boon to the s&p 500. 3m is the big drag on the dow, as well as one of the drags on the s&p 500, down a whopping 10%. guy: i want to take the other side of the coin. you are spot on when you talk about some of the really solid numbers that have come out in some corporate's today, but also
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that 3m story i think is really indicative as well. there is alternative narrative out today which is that the global economic slowdown is something you need to pay attention to. you can see that in the 3m numbers, but also elsewhere. this is the korean yuan. the dollar moving stronger against it earlier on. the data really is appointing in terms of trade numbers. the data more broadly really weak. that is something you really want to pay attention to, a useful bellwether for what is happening in asia. then you have this broad dollar strength. euro-dollar trading with the 1.11 handle. i think the banks are really where we take our narrative from here. still continue to be releasably week. we are seeing, that america is really the only place you want to be of nesting -- one to be investing, i think is alive and well today.
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the banks are a big drag. there are solid numbers elsewhere that are worth paying attention to, but nevertheless, that kind of america first economic, the global slowdown narrative, is worth paying attention to. continues to bid. vonnie: we will talk later on about joe biden getting into the presidential race. it may not have an immediate effect on markets, but it does play into the broader narrative for markets more generally. on that note, let's bring in mike bell, global market strategist at jp morgan asset management. it feels like we had a ton of earnings, and we are still really only at the beginning of earnings season in the u.s.. what you make of it so far, particularly with the outlook that 3m gave this morning, a disappointing set of guidance? mike: i think it is really too early to say.
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given how much earnings estimates have come down since september, it is obviously providing a relatively easy bar for companies to beat. but the key thing is not really the extent to which they can beat, but whether you get by the end of this earnings season positive or negative earnings growth year on year. as i see it, the risks going forward over the coming few quarters is that as wage pressures start to build across sectors, it could put downward pressure on corporate margins, and then the risk is that companies might respond to that by cutting costs, and costs can mean capex, but also jobs. to me that is the big risk in the u.s. at the moment. vonnie: at jp morgan global asset management, what are you advising in terms of rotation? think with the rally in equities so far since christmas, it makes sense to have a degree
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of caution now. we had a very strong rally in equities, and we would be having a more balanced portfolio, so not being overweight equities, and looking for some hedges that could balance on a portfolio. for example, treasuries look quite attractive. for clients here in london, i would recommend hedging those treasuries to take out the currency risk. but also the kind of strategies that would benefit if volatility picks up from here, so being able to go along volatility, for example. guy: the currency risk you talk about across the atlantic, the dollar seems to go from strength to strength. is there anything that would stop in at this point? would you be prepared to bet against it? if i take a view over the next couple of years, i think there's potential downside risk for the euro against the dollar, but for the yen i would expect to see strength.
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trade-weighted, exactly how that plays out is hard to say. in europe i would be focused on the deterioration in the italian consumer confidence numbers. if you look at the service pmi's as well, it looks like we haven't had the last data for italy, but it looks like the italian data is probably weakened, given your many and france were stronger, and yet the headline was a bit weaker -- given germany and france were stronger, and yet the headline was a bit weaker. put could potentially downward pressure on the euro. guy: let's back that out into more of a global story. is of the reasons italy suffering on the manufacturing front is there appears to be a slowdown. the chinese may have stabilized the situation, but taking a look at the korean data today, very weak. central banks are clearly very cautious. is anotherhe rix
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example of that. 3m is painting a similar picture. this global slowdown narrative seems to have faded out a bit. is that the correct interpretation? mike: i'm not sure that it is. there is a very strong rally in equity markets, and yet global exporting data remains pretty weak. pmi's and the manufacturing sector around the world are pretty weak. i think the markets got pretty excited about the potential for china stimulus causing a turnaround. the thing is you need quite a material turnaround. even how weak some of those many fracturing surveys are, the risk is that it starts to affect the service sector as it spills across into consumer confidence, potentially. that is where i would be focused on the risk. i think perhaps the markets got a little bit too excited about the potential of that bounce, mainly because the stimulus coming from china is going to be
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nowhere near as big as it was in 2015, 2016. vonnie: what about asia more broadly? we have a story today talking about japan and how it has been ofyears, the same kinds tools being used, and not much is working. are there new lessons to be learned from japan at all? mike: on the plus side in japan, at least the banks are lending. the problem japan had for most of the 1990's and early 2000's is a contraction in credit growth. the banks are now finally lending. let's not get too excited about that, but it is not a contraction, at least. the negative for japan at the moment is that they are facing the same slowdown in global exports that is affecting the rest of asia and has spilled across into europe. exposed still very much to the weakness in exports, and we need to see that pickup not just in japan, but in korea,
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taiwan, and the euro zone so that it removes what i would say is one of the major risks at the across of that spilling into the service sector and consumption. obviously when you look at the rally you have seen in oil prices since christmas, that just argues that perhaps there's a bit of a downside risk to consumption given what we seen in oil prices. you've got week manufacturing and oil prices potentially putting some pressure on consumption, and then you add in japan and this potential risk of a tax hike coming through in october. it paints the picture where perhaps a degree of caution at this stage, given the rally we seen, makes sense. vonnie: can i ask what is the biggest geopolitical concern coming through from your clients these days? is it brexit? is it something else? brexit combination of and concerns around the trade
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war. there's still a lot of discussion around whether we are going to see a deal between the u.s. and china go through. but also, amongst clients i speak to, a lot of discussion around whether or not you're going to see measures put on the auto sector in europe and japan. i think that is what people are most worried about, the potential of pivoting away from china, there might be extra measures announced on the euro zone. given how weak the manufacturing sector is globally at the moment, but particularly in europe, it really would be bad for europe, and indeed for japan , where they are to be trade measures imposed at this stage. guy: is there any reason at this stage to own european banks? they are very cheap, but that could be a value trap. mike: i don't think the ecb are putting rates up anytime soon, so the banks are a play for normalization in the right cycle
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and improvement in the interest margins, i think you will be waiting quite a long time. i certainly wouldn't be overweight european financials at this time. i think you could make the argument for owning u.s. financials as a value play and a reasonable quality play within the u.s. market, but i wouldn't be overweight in europe. vonnie: thank you. market mike bell, global strategist at jp morgan asset management. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here's kailey leinz. kailey: former vice president joe biden is running for the democratic nomination for president in a field that now includes 20 candidates. biden is 76. his pitch will focus on working-class voters who backed donald trump in 2016. all street is closing in on big win. bankers blasted last year's attempt to tow down -- to tone
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down trading limits. await as are set to test that determines which trades are being banned. carlos ghosn is hoping to get out of jail for a second time. his lawyers posted bond to secure his release from a tokyo prison. the former nissan chairman is citing charges -- is fighting charges he funneled millions of dollars. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. coming up, and uncertain future for deutsche bank and commerzbank after talks of consolidation have ended. we will hear from our interview with the cfo of deutsche bank. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." let's check those global markets. here's abigail doolittle. abigail: it is an interesting day from a risk off perspective. we could make the case that it forhe worst risk off day global markets in a month. the dow on pace for its worst day in a month on a number of earnings that we will be taking a look at any minute. also concerning, the emerging market index down about 1%, its worst day any month. investors retreating from the record highs we've seen, confirming this sense of risk off. let's take a look at the dollar against again. the yen is having its strongest more than a month, up
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about 6/10 of 1%. this is the inverse picture. the fact you have investors moving out of riskier stocks and into the haven yen really suggests the risk rally we've seen this year is pausing just a little bit. as for what is dragging in the u.s., we have some big laggards on the day. 3m is one of the reasons the dow is down so much. 3m down 10%. they put up disappointing results and cut forecasts, citing the beginning to a disappointing year. whether thereest is a patch of economic weakness. first quarter earning estimates on bad winter weather in the u.s. rounding it out, freeport mac
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-- freeport-mcmoran down, citing copper. china dragging on the emr index, having its worst day in more than a month. this is year to date. we are looking at white, the shanghai composite. in blue, the emerging market index. in yellow, the s&p 500 and the dax. the shanghai composite is on pace for its worst week of the year. today the worst day in about a month. the question is whether or not that weakness for the shanghai composite as a leading index is really going to start to drag on the dax and the s&p 500, something to keep in mind for sure. guy: absolutely massive day for chinese earrings tomorrow, so you wonder other there is front running -- chinese earnings tomorrow, so you wonder whether there is a bit of front running going on there. deutsche bank and commerzbank have ended their talks on the
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tie up that was there for a while. it throws the futures of both lenders into question. earlier, bloomberg spoke to deutsche's cfo. guest: we envisage that over time, industry consolidation will take place in europe, and deutsche wants to be a part of that. the timing of that remains to be seen. we've talked about doing our homework to continue executing on our plans, executing on the restructuring of the company, and the improvement of our shareholder returns. guy: giving us a sense of what happens next. what happens next? that's got to be the big question right now. both stocks under pressure. let's go back to frankfurt now. steven arons joining us from there. there was a lot of talk about the need for plan b. what does plan b look like?
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that is the question everyone is trying to answer. we don't really know yet. we know they are working on a plan b. the problem is it can't be a very big plan b because that would entail more restructuring costs, and deutsche can't afford to spend more money at this point. a small restructuring, what would that be? more cuts? it needs to convince shareholders that this will actually work. just remember, the share price still hovers at an all-time low, so it is a really tricky situation. perhaps we will get more sense of what is going on tomorrow when they actually report first quarter results. still: ing and unicredit said to be interested in buying commerz. is that still in play potentially? steven: that is still in play. deutscherumored while
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bank was still in talks, but now that this is off the table, this is going to be the next big story for commerzbank. those interested in buy and commerzbank, it is always a question of price, and the german government is still the biggest shareholder in commerzbank, and they have therefore a lot to say about this. the courtship will begin, and that will be the big question for covers been going forward. guy: who is to blame for these talks failing? should they have ever taken place in the first place? can i point the finger at the finance minister? steven: i think many people are pointing the finger. peopletually funny, many blamed him for initiating these talks in the first place, and in theple, mostly opposition, obviously, say this is falling apart, you're a loser. but the banks made the decision on their own. they came to the conclusion that
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it doesn't make economic sense. it would destroy shareholder value. plan is to say that the not good enough at this point, what they ares going to do. allocating the blame to him is not particularly fair, actually. guy: ok. we will leave it there. our thanks to blumberg's steven arons joining us from frankfurt on the deutsche story. vonnie: facebook is still up more than 6%, but paring gains on the report that canada will take facebook to court over privacy issues. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: in london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: it's time for factor funds. one factor running to keep up momentum. i think we are talking about momentum, is that correct? why does it happen? reporter: this is why i think it is very jarring for people. they see the market is up 70% this year, and momentum is lagging. happen, especially in these markets, we have a sharp decline at a sharp recovery. momentum goes down with the market, but then sort of readjusts at the bottom. i need to dump all of these stocks that are doing really poorly and go into defensive names. up, the market goes back and momentum is actually lagging
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most of the other factors. 2016.ually saw this in the market recovered, and momentum took two months after to fully recover. guy: get specific. get inside one of the funds and walk us through what we are seeing. athanasios: let's talk about one of the biggest momentum funds ou t there. if the markets get really volatile, it can trigger an off schedule rebalance. what it did is actually dumped pretty much all of its tech and went into health care. you look at the relative performance of health care in tech, it ends up being a portrayed. that is when health care started underperforming and tech started doing really well. it got very defensive and turned this into more of a low vol fund. vonnie: you've mentioned this ad hoc rebalance to aid a volatile
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market. has this helped or hurt performance incentive? let's say it stayed true to its course. it would have been better not doing anything. it is actually a 5% difference. the is a huge difference, difference between beating a market and underperforming this year. this ad hoc ended up hurting it so far this year. vonnie: thank you very much. our factor funds segment as always on a thursday. it is time for our bloomberg business flash. shares of 3m falling. the comedy has cut forecast for the year, citing -- the company has cut forecasts for the year, citing lagging demand and global slowdown. it will cut 2000 jobs, almost 2% of the workforce. walmart is considering an ipo for its grocery unit in the united kingdom as one of the
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possible options after talks to combine the business with sainsbury collapsed. u.k. regulators blocked that deal. earningsfirst quarter took a hit on bad weather in the u.s. weather dragre them down by $18 million. the partial government shutdown also hurt results. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. still ahead, the former vice president and two-time democratic presidential nominee first himself back into the race this year. we will look at where he lines up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn vonnie: -- vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets."
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here's kailey leinz. kailey: in sri lanka, the father of two of the suicide bombers has been arrested on suspicion of helping his son. the attacks killed more than 350 people, mainly christians and foreign tourists. the u.s. and japan will be looking for a speedy deal when they resume trade talks today in washington. the u.s. is pushing to reduce its trade deficit with japan. tokyo once a promise it won't be had by u.s. tariffs on auto imports. filing for u.s. unemployment benefits rose last week for the most since 2015. that broke a five-week streak of declines. the overall number is still in the range of what is considered a tight labor market. a bellwether economy for global trade and technology has reported its biggest contraction in a decade. south korea's gdp shrank by 3/10 of 1% in the previous three
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months, big worry for other major exporters such as germany and taiwan. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. in washington today, former vice president joe biden officially entering the presidential race. let's bring in kevin cirilli, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. this will be his third time in the race. he is 76 years old. he does have good name recognition. no cash raised, though. there are some challenges for joe biden. kevin: particularly on the issue of policy. he's going to have to compete against the democrat socialist candidates, including bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. there is no question that his reinsurance into the race resets the democrat primary field. let's take a listen to what he
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had to say earlier today. mr. biden: i believe history will look back on four years of this president and all he embraces as an aberrant moment donald, but if we give trump eight years in the white house, he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation, who we are, and i cannot stand by while it happens. kevin: of course, the former vice president enjoys significant name recognition and access to a donor class from the obama era. if you take a look at the statement that the former president barack obama put out, he praised the former vice president's service is vantage point. they said in a statement, "president obama has long said selecting joe biden as his running mate in 2008 was one of the best decisions he ever made. he relied on the vice president's knowledge, insight, and judgment throughout both campaigns and the entire presidency."
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when you look beyond that, on the policy standpoint, he's going to have to be competing against some of those more progressive candidates. guy: is that an endorsement? it doesn't feel like an endorsement. if it is not an endorsement from obama, why is it? kevin: it is a bit too early for the former president to announce an endorsement. we haven't even had the first debate yet. if you look back in terms of the new political era we find ourselves in, there have been some criticisms against the former vice president pertaining to the need a hill hearings, as well as his time -- the anita , as well as his time as vice president. this will all be resurfaced during the democratic primaries. a bit of it did come up in his previous campaigns. we should also note he does have a relationship with the likes of
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senator elizabeth warren. there have been some reports in recent months to suggest they have grown a bit more fractured, but i can tell you behind the scenes their camps have been talking with each other somewhat, and again, this was very much a long time in the making. say partymocrats shouldn't take an older white man, and some also say that perhaps he is not in tune with some of the more modern views of the party. how does he come back those criticisms? kevin: well, this is scranton joe. he has significantly said repeatedly that he would be able to win arcing class voters in parts of the country where -- win working-class voters in parts of the country where donald trump was able to beat hillary clinton. look no further than western nowsylvania, ohio, where he faces a democratic challenger jockeying for the same political
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positioning in that lane with congressman tim ryan. michigan,sconsin, suburban detroit in particular. this is the case for joe biden in the sense that he would be able to win back some of those theing-class voters, 70,000 voters that switched from former president obama to vote for president trump. the relationship between president trump and the former vice president has been intense, to say the least. both of these men have gone after each other aggressively, and joe biden has done it in a way that has been off-the-cuff. some democratic strategists i've spoken with this week have been a bit confused as to why there would be such a scripted rollout because this is someone who's known for his off-the-cuff commentary, but we likely will be hearing from him on the stump very soon in the coming days,
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and look for that type of personality and off-the-cuff try to mark aally contrast with some of the other candidates in the race. guy: historically, he's not been great at raising money. who's going to finance him? kevin: now he has access to all of the obama era donors, and the folks working on his campaign have deep ties and access to the obama era world. essentially, he inherits that. whereeyond that, i think the competition lies is not necessarily in the donor class, but in the smaller donor class. you have folks like senator sanders, for example, who have been completely activating the progressive base in a much more democrat socialist lane by using .org and themoveon likes to access small dollar donors, which ultimately yields
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big bucks. chief: bloomberg's washington correspondent kevin cirilli, we will leave it there. are things to you. guy: up next, a strong start to the earnings season. is it? we will delve deeper into the slew of numbers we seen today and that we are getting this week. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." earnings season obviously in full swing. let's bring in bloomberg's dave wilson for a big of a roundup -- for a bit of a roundup. we've seen a massive decline
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today in a stock that has run up quite substantially. i'm curious, will this move beyond that? reporter: that is the question as we move forward beyond the chipmakers. it is an industry vulnerable to decline because it has done so well since stocks bottomed out in december. you saw the philadelphia semiconductor index up 49% in the space of four months, leading the s&p 500 higher as well. -- to have this stock be a disappointment, they were up 64% before the earnings came out. vonnie: let's move to microsoft. trillion,topped $1 back below that now, but it's market cap is really expanding today. a phenomenal quarter, and it is azurer -- it is
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again. dave: we will see how microsoft stacks up against its rivals in that area next week. we have amazon after the close. amazon web services a big chunk of their business. we have apple, with google cloud. this area has been such a growth engine for microsoft over the past several quarters now, so you look and see the fiscal third quarter results beating estimates, and it is something that gets your attention. guy: stock of the day for me, absolutely 3m. it is getting battered on big volume. why did the analysts get this one so wrong? this with a company like that spans all kind of industries, you figure they can manage to do well regardless of what is going on. it is a prime example of a company that's gotten hurt by the stronger dollar.
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we've seen that is a theme across companies with first-quarter results. 3m is certainly in that category. earnings overall missed estimates and they cut forecasts for the year, so it really comes down to how much of an effect things like the stronger dollar has on a company that spans as many industries and products as 3m does. guy: it fell short of consensus by the largest margin on record. that is quite an impressive feat to deliver. many people see 3m as a global bellwether, a proxy for what is happening around the world. is there a geographic story we can put into this as well? you mentioned the dollar. dave: a company like this is spread across all kinds of geographic regions and industries. it is going to show up in terms of the results. i would throw in the mix ups, while we are at it. that certainly fits because of the nature of their business, package delivery.
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their numbers were disappointing , partly because of lousy weather in the u.s.. nonetheless, it is another sign and currencygrowth valuations and all the rest are having an effect on companies here. vonnie: facebook is performing amazingly well today, now ticking down just a little bit on the news that canada may take it to court. but even if the maximum $5 billion fine is imposed, that is just a drop in the ocean for facebook, so they are just swimming along. dave: it sure looks that way. they set aside this $3 billion in reserve. earnings are well above estimates, revenues growing, beating projections, and it just goes to show you that all of these issues about data privacy, which have come up in the u.s. and canada and the european union and you name it, even with all of that on the table, the company's business is growing. at the end of the day, that is
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what matters to the shareholders. you could argue that all of the regulatory issues in essence are a cost of doing business for facebook. certainly that is true for a lot of other companies, so you can understand why investors would look at it that way. vonnie: i want to look at tesla. it looks like we are looking at other capital raise, and analysts are capitulating. is that another pivotal moment for tesla? dave: it seems they go from one pivotal moment to the next to the next. it gets your attention because this is a company whose future, you could argue, has been so back-and-forth these days. earlier this week, elon musk talking about how he wants to have this fleet of robo taxis up and running by next year. you could argue that was almost a distraction from how the company is doing right now, and given the results we saw, you can understand why he would want to go that route. guy: i want to talk about two
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companies that both start with a, and i think spending is important for both of them. let's start with out tria -- with altria. these are companies having to spend a lot in the p&l to get things to sort of work for them going forward. how much are they going to have to spend as it tries to pivot to other products? dave: they are going to have to spend quite a bit. beyond that, they are going to have to, among other things, get u.s. approval to start selling their smokeless products, ioq's. they are able to internationally, but not yet here. given the magnitude of declines they are seeing in traditional cigarette shipments, they need to be able to find a way to revive themselves. having stake in the smokeless company juul helps, but only goes so far.
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guy: if i ask alexa what the key metric would be for amazon tonight, would it be spending? dave: that is always the issue because to some extent, you can argue the company's results are what they want them to be given their expense in -- derek spansion in cloud computing, their moving -- their expansion in cloud businesses, their moving into different areas. in terms of how profitable is amazon really looking to become at this point, they've gotten over the hurdle of actually making money. now it is just a question of how consistently they will do so, at the same time looking to invest in their business. vonnie: we will have to leave it there, but what i round up. a rapid fire of all the earnings today. dave, thank you. guy: time for a quick look of what we should be watching, the bloomberg business flash.
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let's kick things off and talk about the royal bank of scotland. it is starting the search for a new co after theirs will be leaving the lender a year from now. he has been chief executive for 23rd -- chief executive since 2013. there is speculation the next could be a woman, allison rose. shares in nokia cutting hit hard low, as the month wireless equip maker reports uninspected quarterly loss. nokia took an early hit in the battle for the next generation of mobile networks, 5g. huawei allsson, and trying to gain contracts on 5g. addedest airlines sees costs during the busy summer travel season. the grounding of the boeing 737
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max fleet is a bit of an issue. southwest is the biggest operator of the airframe, and it is hard to cancel 130 flights a day without seeing an impact. still, southwest sees a key revenue gauge rising as much as 7.5% this quarter. that is your bloomberg business flash. what have we got coming up for you next? we will take a look at what is happening with the greenback. the dollar strength seems to go from strength to strength. futures and focus our next. we will take you to chicago. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "bloomberg markets." it is time for our stock of the hour. sainsbury dropping as u.k. regulators blocked its planned
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deal to buy asda. emma chandra is here. emma: they blocked the deal to buy asda. they are saying become a nation of the second and third largest u.k. grocers would lead to higher prices and less choice for u.k. shoppers. this is despite sainsbury's andr to roll out rice cuts -- rollout price cuts and sell 150 other stores. their stock has plummeted since they announce the deal to buy as da has fallen through, losing out to their rival tesco. the let's talk about cma. has the cma reached the right conclusion? i know there's been a lot of criticism that centers around the idea that they've ignored the market affect of the hard
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, the german hard discounters like aldi. emma: that is the criticism they have come up on, how much the u.k. grocery landscape has changed with the like of aldi. a number of people have said they do not take into account how much market share they are taking. certainly bloomberg opinion is saying this is a big win for the german company, also that sainsbury is really in the squeezed middle between the slightly higher end grocers and the hard discounters. sainsbury is really now in need of a new strategy to drive growth at the grocer. a lot of people saying that deal to buy asda was the strategy. sales are projected to fall further into 2019, so people really wondering what their plan
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be will be -- their plan b will be. slightly different for asda, owned by walmart. they are saying they still got a number of options on the table for what they will do, including whether to spin it off in an ipo or look to a private equity buyer. vonnie: all right,, tundra with our stock of the hour -- all right, emma chandra with our stock of the hour, sainsbury. thank you very much. guy: from the cme, i want to talk about the dollar. what is the feeling in chicago about whether or not the dollar keeps going higher from here? there seems to be nothing to stop it right now, no obvious alternative. does the market see more dollar strength? guest: this dollar power is a mystery. obviously with no rate hikes in the future, how can it continue to climb? we are at the highest level since may 2017. we see a strong trend, but if
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you look at today's action, you see new highs in the dollar, and we may see a lower close. that maybe a sign of a slow, but the good news is the macro market disconnect. even though the dollar is strong at multi-year highs, stocks and oil are maintaining overall strength on this big come back climb. i view this as a positive that the dollar is not having an impact on other asset classes. guy: it is weird that we get all of these things going up at the same time. how long does that carry on for? alan: looking at the technical action, you are seeing the euro currency make new lows, but it is now positive. the volatility is sharply lower in the euro currency that it was a couple of months ago, so that portends usually a good sign that a bottom is closer. i would rather be a buyer of a euro than a seller of the dollar. even if you look at the pound, it is hanging around the 1.30 l
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evel, significantly off of the level in january. we are seeing a slow grind lower in other currencies and a drift higher in the dollar. it is not any booming market, so to speak. we are notuestion, raising rates in 2019, and maybe in 2020 we will be lowering rates. a couple of years ago, everybody had a race to the bottom. i think that is the situation where we are right now. guy: we are going to leave it there. thank you very much indeed. of agouraman financial joining us from the cme was a string story -- with a strange story. vonnie: coming up in our next hour, talks of consolidation have ended for deutsche bank and commerzbank. we will go through what it could mean for the troubled lenders. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: we are having a down day for the dow industrial average, being dragged lower primarily by 3m, down substantially after having given a very soft forecast. the s&p 500 not down as much thanks to some stocks performing very well, including facebook, which is helping keep the s&p a little buoyed. the nasdaq is the outperform are today, up 1/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is hard.
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from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: a really interesting day. on one end of the spectrum, you've got decent tech earnings coming out. you could take that and say i think that will generate a risk on vibe. the tech earnings season in particular is being overshadowed by something more broad. the industrial sector is down, and then there's this kind of broader macro narrative that seems to be out there today. the korean economy is one of those economies you really want to pay attention to. it is a global bellwether. you think about the companies it produces and the areas. that is in. obviously, samsung -- the areas that it is in. obviously, samsung is one of the names that was out. the data is really week, particularly the trade data. the dollar very strong against the korean won.

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