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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  May 7, 2019 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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rishaad: we are looking at the reserve bank of new zealand out with its interest rate decision. we are 25 basis points. australia state pat. here we have it. a cut as predicted, 25 basis points. cools, has the economy inflation is still a concern, but chances of a rate cut cut have pushed back after the rba stayed on hold. take a look at the market reaction. the first of the developed nations to cut rates. we are seeing some pressure. the key we could face more selling pressure, even if the rbnz holds. we are down 1% for the kiwi at the moment. take a look at the bonds. look.d: let's have a
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they said a rate cut was necessary to support jobs and their target for cpi, which they project to rise slowly. this is what you wanted here. the new zealand dollar on the slide. you can see when that rate decision came through, a fall of 1% plus at one stage. yvonne: people say there was a lot of people pricing in this cut already. we will not see too much reaction when it comes to the bond market. when it comes to your new zealand to year yield unchanged. the 10 year yield down one basis point. it is the kiwi we are watching, the aussie kiwi also bid up. 1.1% tookhis fall of the new zealand dollar to the lowest level since november 2018. they are forecasting at the moment a chance of one further
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rate cut in the offing for new zealand. there we have it. yvonne: we have the rba hold, the rbnz cut. malaysia cut yesterday. we have thailand and the philippines, so plenty more to digest, but it has been those trade concern shaking markets. we saw the wall street session hurt by what we heard from this tariff threats from president trump. we are seeing red across the screen. chinese stocks resuming declines up to the late day surge yesterday on confirmation that the vice premier would be heading to washington, d.c. down oneting losses, point 5%. we are looking at key data later on as well. rishaad: numbers out of china on trade. this is what we have had of late, imports and exports. exports moving to the upside. in negativedily terrain. contracting slightly.
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let's talk a little bit about china. it has confirmed their top negotiator will travel to washington for the latest trade talks. officials say retaliatory measures are being prepared against american goods should new tariffs be imposed. isnne: while trade dominating talk out of the j.p. morgan global china summit in beijing, let's cross over to our chief north asia correspondent. tell us with the mood has been like so far. >> obviously everybody is talking about the trade war and the turn of events this week. ceot now the chairman and of j.p. morgan is speaking on stage. we will have him immediately after he comes off stage. you have to keep it on bloomberg television for that extensive and exclusive interview with jamie dimon. right now, we are honored to have lord peter mendelson, the
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former eu trade commissioner and the cofounder and chairman of global council and advisory body. good to see you. you have been in some thorny trade negotiations yourself. how does this rank as far as contentious and the ramifications? these are the world's two largest economies, and they seem to be at a significant impasse right now. e. it is not just tens it is almost existential between the u.s. and china. i think they will arrive at some sort of deal. there are hundreds of pages of written agreements in place. there will be last-minute tensions over enforcement measures, how and when china will legislate certain protections. for example, for technology transfer. in my experience these things are ticklish right up until the last moment, then they get solved.
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i would be surprised if china and the u.s. through way what is obviously a deal that has been a long time in the making and almost there. >> the thinking is the hardliners are getting the loudest voice in the white house am the but also in china. are taking hawks over and saying from the u.s. perspective, whether robert lighthizer others, they say no deal is better than some sort of deal. >> i don't think they will prevail. i think the president will have the final call and will want access. president trump, whatever you say about his methods and approach, it has certainly called the attention of chinese leaders. he has focused on some very real issues, industrial policy, trade, access to chinese markets , competition, subsidies that are pervasive in the chinese
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economy. attention, i their think he will have something to negotiations, and that will be welcomed by all of us. europe shares many of these concerns. i as trade commissioner 10 years ao described china as juggernaut out of control in the international trading system. here is the point. what we need to do is not just reach the short-term transactional deal between the u.s. and china, we need an enduring settlement. need new trade rules to govern the international trading system as a whole. i don't think you will get those rule changes and updating of the rulebook simply from the wto. i think the big players have to work alongside the wto and ize what they
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agreed, so there is an enormous challenge. i wish president trump had more of a strategy that pave the way for that agreement, rather than short-term tactics. i am fairly confident the deal will be produced. >> none of the winds are pointing towards that multilateral approach. oha.d d i were there >> a great deal of president trump approaches writing -- g -- to close the market to its trading partners is hardly conforming with the standards and norms of wto practice. he is not a great man for these institutions. he doesn't care about multilateral negotiation.
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he wants a good deal for america. if that good deal as spinoff benefits for the rest of us, that is fine, but what we really need is a settlement that can be hammered out between china and its main trading partners that will endure into the future. >> on brexit, what deal will appease parliament? will there be no deal? this is to be put back to the people? >> there is no majority in the u.k. parliament for any outcome, whether a hard brexit, a clean break between ourselves and our biggest trading partner, the eu, which is what they want, or a soft brexit that will sustain our trade, or no brexit at all. these are three options. day, basicallyhe taking the public back into the decision, which is eventually what we will have to do. >> you called it a humiliating
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mess. is there a precedent for this to go back to the people for a second referendum? >> there is barely a precedent for referenda. we have had a couple. both have concerned europe. look, i know people say you can have another referendum and another after that. i don't think that will be the case. the public has to give a mandate to the public, a hard route, a soft route, and will it compare to the benefits and advantages we already have has members of the eu? that is what the public are entitled to give a view to, which they weren't in the original decision. >> what will happen from your perspective? halloween deadline. >> end of october deadline -- you know, i cannot say what will happen. paralysis,
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essentially a democratic crisis in britain at the moment over brexit. nobody can tell with the outcome is. the politicians between parties, within parties, the front benches, the back benches, they are all falling out and disagree, but the public will have to decide the matter. >> thank you so much for your time. we will take a quick break. we have a former pboc advisor coming up, and jamie dimon here on bloomberg television. ♪ rishaad: thanks. let's move things along and look at first word news. >> we start with the imf managing director christine lagarde, who says the possibility of a u.s.-china trade war is a threat to the world economy.
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she said resolving any disagreements will likely still take time. >> nobody wins a trade war. everybody has to lose from a trade war. that the tradepe discussions that have taken place between china and the u.s. will resume, which is what i understand, will be successful at the end of the day. both parties are tackling important issues. all the observers would like it to be done yesterday, but those matters take time. >> a report in the new york times says president trump's businesses lost more than $1 billion between 1985 and 1994. the newspaper sites printouts of irs transcripts of its federal tax forms and says trump lost so much money that he was able to 48id paying any income taxes of those 10 years. -- for eight of those 10 years. the treasury department said it would not release president
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trump returns. meanwhile, clouds are gathering over the eurozone, the eu commission cut its overall growth forecast and slashed the outlook for its major individual economy. brussels says germany will expand this year by just you are .5%, less than half the previous forecast. downside risks to the region it says remain prominent. the commission also notes exceptional weakness in you manufacturing. the fed vice chairman is the latest official to push back against calls for a rate cut, saying the economy and policy are in a good place. echoed jayrida also powell's comments about inflation being "transitory" and agreed the fed is under no pressure to move in either direction. he also says policymakers will continue to monitor events
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closely and will act as necessary. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: thanks. coming up from the j.p. morgan summit in beijing, we will talk to the chairman and ceo of the bank, jamie dimon, later this hour. you don't want to miss it. yvonne: we are joined by an member of the monetary policy committee of the pboc. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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♪ rishaad: we are back. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." the upcoming trade talks put in doubt by a couple of tweets. confirmed the vice premier will travel to washington to continue negotiations as key chinese trade data is expected any minute. yvonne: next coming minutes,
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hours. we are not sure. we are still at the j.p. morgan global china summit in beijing. take it away. >> absolutely. fast and furious. our next guest is a former pboc advisor, now professor and --ect at the university director at the university. good to see you again. we had a great conversation last year about trump. you admired donald trump. there are a lot of people in this room who are really scared what donald trump is leading the global economy towards, a perhaps significant rift with china. how do you see this outcome? >> i see an agreement will be reached this friday or soon after. why? president trump in china at the end of the day are rational. president trump appears to be crazy, but i call him rationally
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crazy. he wants a better deal for the u.s. and wants to appear to be americanfront of political stakeholders. at the end of the day, he once a deal. the chinese side want to deal because 90% of what the u.s. wants are not inconsistent with what china's reforms are doing. the issues are dignity. the agreement should leave enough dignity for the chinese side, but don't forget, both sides, china and the u.s., have their domestic political stakeholders. >> president xi jinping also has to appear tough as well. >> exactly. >> will they fight back? they must. they said they will immediately retaliate. you could get a snowball effect here. even though they both might want to come at there could be unintended consequences. >> i do not think china will
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respond in kind. over the weekend, when president trump tweeted the news, china has not responded in kind. china has been rationally calm and quiet. china is still following the plan. they are sending the vice premier to negotiate. lighthizer says there has been significant backpedaling on promises over the last 11 months they have been negotiating. that indicates the hawks are taking over the dialogue in the white house and the regardless of whether donald trump want to deal or not. they are saying the chinese are backpedaling and they are saying no deal is better than a watered-down deal. >> i don't think so. the negotiators are lawyers of a firm, but at the end of the day, it is the principles, the ceo and chairman, who will make the decision. i believe the negotiators on the
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u.s. side are too much legalistic. into accounttaking the chinese political situation. the essence of the issue is that both sides want many things in --mon, but only however, languages cannot be put into the agreement. the languages would appear that china behaves like the former government dealing with the u.k. that is the last thing that china wants. >> you think this is a matter of semantics. >> i do think so. i do think so. i do think so. you have to understand china is an emerging power. china is not 170 years ago under the emperor. , so the is not the u.k. key is the rhetoric. the key is the legal language. >> perhaps xi jinping as saying
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we do not want a repeat of the humiliation of that and we need equal footing an agreement between two fairly equal economic powers question -- powers? want to bees not perceived to be bullied by the u.s.. perception is important. >> china has been stimulating the economy during the first quarter. there are indications from the politburo they will dial that back. they don't want that loan problems. were seeing a tripling of the pace of potential corporate defaults in china. there are domestic issues that can't keep on stimulating come up at what you think they will do if a trade deal does fall apart and they need growth? >> two things. number one is to stimulate consumption, especially automotive. the automobile by far is the largest item of consumption of all, other than housing. housing is investment, ok.
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automobile sales came down last year. remember, chinese consumers pay 20% to 25% tax. in the u.s. it is low. there is room to cut. automobile taxes would be an instant response. the secondary is to provide leverage, more liquidity, to certain areas of investment. medium-term lending facilities? certain enterprises and certain areas of infrastructure investment. you do it before the house is fully renovated before furniture. china has a lot of buildings without furniture. the early stages important. >> the fed has taken a dovish till. other central banks looking to cut. should the pboc move down on its benchmark rate? >> unlikely.
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there are lots of instruments for the pboc to play on without lowering the interest rates. >> always great to talk to you. we could talk longer. jamie dimon in a matter of minutes. i hear some of loss behind me. perhaps he is wrapping up his comments to the j.p. morgan global china summit. we will be right back. you're watching bloomberg. ♪
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♪ yvonne: let's get the latest business flash headlines. petrobras owing more money has it starts poking future leasing costs for aircraft and other assets of liabilities. billion, 3.2e $27 2.4 ifarnings, up from the accounting rules have not changed. --h a boss says don't
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petrobras says don't panic as they also earned a rising to the move. rishaad: uber has enough investment demand to price at the top end of the range, although it is still likely to target a midrange price to ensure strong trading. lyft is projecting second-quarter revenue that beat estimates. than $1 billion of losses in the first quarter. ferreri delivered arise , a 14%t quarter profit jump in adjusted earnings. deliveries are strong with shipments rising almost 80%. shares rose the most in three months and are up a third since the start of the year. let's look at her markets. focusing on new zealand assets after the rbnz delivered that rate cut. theney we did tumble, but
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he raced half of its losses. 65.72, theing around bond market seeing bid buying. the new zealand 10-year down six basis points, the short end seeing more of a move, 180 for your new zealand 10-year. the new zealand stocks are paring initial losses. rishaad: let's take a look at what else is down in this part of the world. the slump on wall street making itself felt in this neck of the a 1.6% loss. uncertainty with these trade talks. init of optimism did creep when we heard the vice premier would be attending those talks and joining in as the top chinese negotiator. i we really getting any closer to perhaps a way from this trade
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deal. that's what we have. the nikkei down has we head into the lunch break in tokyo. ♪ reak in tokyo. ♪
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yvonne: it is 10:29 a.m. in hong kong and 10:29 p.m. in new york. su: we start with china which confirms the top trade negotiator liu he will join the latest round of talks in washington this week. thatews is seen as a sign beijing is fighting to keep negotiations on track after president trump said he is raising tariffs on friday. at the same time, china is preparing retaliatory measures against u.s. imports if those tariffs are imposed. asia'sysia which joins easing cycle when they first
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raised cuts since the middle of 2016. lowered the overnight policy rate to 3%, as predicted by the majority of economists surveyed. policymakers are bracing for slower growth. the central bank sees expansion this year below the government's forecast of 4.9%. law enforcement from the u.s., malaysia and singapore meet this week to coordinate goldman sachs over its work for the scandal plagued state in person firm. the bank is under scrutiny in of bond -- its role sales that generated more than $500 million in fees. goldman ceo david solomon says the firm has not yet begun talks with the u.s. department of justice over its role in the scandal. in thailand, the election commission has found a party linked to the exiled former
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prime minister took the most seats in the march general election. constituencies in the lower house of parliament's, with a pro military party taking 97 seats. that means both missed an overall majority. the two are now competing to form a workable coalition. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. yvonne: thanks. let's take a look at the markets. here we go again with the comes -- when it comes to the tariff threats. asia catching up. resuming itself at the moment. we are watching these movers, in particular, making some big moves today too. rishaad: a new chairman of the group, rolling back assets of the predecessor. refocusing the bank of its cash
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cow, the liquor that is drunk by everybody. yvonne: the shanghai stock exchange now questioning this new sales firm they will launch. it was downgraded even get hurt the revenue. rishaad: moving to the downside, lower as it opens up new branches in iraq. improvements in security there. nearmap, it is the best-performing stock in the market in australia, up 149% this year. not so today, 3.9% lower today. up-president china holdings nearly 15%. our analyst upgrading the recommendation on the company here. it was reduced -- it's now at this position. japan airlines, the biggest
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fall this year. motor, bigr, big -- miss for that company. and capcom, the software and games application maker, down 2.5%. another company suffering from weaker than expected earnings. abc mart, 3.3% lower as well. missing sales with regard to that one. that is currently the position. yvonne: all right, we are taking a look at when it comes to the vet. vice chairman richard clarida is downplaying the u.s.-china trade tensions. he told bloomberg the economic impact is not been great and pushing back against speculation that the fed will cut rates. richard: we had a strong first quarter. looking out throughout the rest of the year, the fed views economic growth this year as coming in somewhere around 2%, perhaps a little above that depending on the data. in terms of inflation, inflation has been running on the soft
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side recently. we think there are some temporary factors. our baseline view is that inflation will move up towards our 2% objective. we are certainly looking at the data closely. >> where did you see fed funds at the end of this year, next year? richard: i will not get into my individual dot. at the march meeting, you saw most numbers of the committee saw a baseline view of unchanged for this year. that is just one consideration. we don't vote on the dots. there are 17 different opinions. that gives somewhat of an indication of a baseline view, but we had to look at the outlook at the both sides of the baseline. >> i have to ask about headwinds. jay powell said at his press conference last week that they will diminish, but all of a sudden trade talks with china may be in jeopardy. have you model the impact on the u.s. economy if the president were to impose these additional tariffs? richard: we have determined that
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so far, the trade measures put in place really had a modest effect on the economy last year. obviously, we are hopeful there is an agreement. that is obviously up to the president and the negotiations are ongoing but if that is not the outcome, we will take that into account in future policy. right now, trade has not had a big impact on the economy so far, even terms of growth or inflation. michael: the markets seem confident that 2.5% is a terminal rate. are they correct? richard: that is one view of markets. again, the data can break either way. the upside or the downside. we think the u.s. economy and monetary policy is in a good place right now. our focus is on sustaining maximum employment and stability. we don't see a strong case to move rates in either direction. but as data comes in, we will always be looking for
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indications. michael: in march, jay powell said low inflation was one of the major challenges of our time. last week, he said inflation problems are just transitory. people are a little confused. richard: i don't think so. i think what jay powell was referring to in march is the global economy, eurozone or japan, if you look at big chunks of the advanced economy and global economy, inflation is well below the levels they would desire in those countries. in the context of the u.s., our inflation rate is near 2%. there are some transitory factors we think will play out. i think in march, we were really talking about the global economy and more recently, we are talking about the transitory factors in the u.s. michael: if you look back, pce is your target rate. over the last 20 years, it has averaged 1.8% since you adopted it as a target, it averaged 1.4%. why should anyone at wall street take a 2% target seriously?
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rishaad: that is an excellent point. our job is to achieve that 2% objective. richard: we say on a symmetric basis. obviously going forward, our goal is to get inflation up to 2% and keep it there, and hopefully in a symmetric range around 2%. that is the goal, i agree. yvonne: that was richard clarida, the fed vice chairman speaking to bloomberg. it's what we have been waiting for. an exclusive interview with jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon from the global china summit in beijing. ♪
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rishaad: we are back and getting straight to the coverage of the jpmorgan global summit in beijing. yvonne: let's get to the chief asia correspondent stephen engle for us. steve?
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pleased we are always to have this exclusive time with jamie dimon, jpmorgan chairman and ceo. he joins us exquisitely. you can listen -- exclusively. you can listen on bloomberg radio simulcast. thank you for having us at the global china summit. you just spoke onstage. i have been here all morning and there are a lot of concerns about the turn of events in trade negotiation's. how do you see this playing out? jamie: from everything i hear, they have made enormous progress. hundreds of pages of agreements around ip, technology, subsidies, tariffs, and some form of enforcement. now we have this other bump in the road. sometimes they don't pan out to be that bad. i hope they don't put tariffs in place. whatever the odds were before, i think it is still 80% they will get it done. the odds of something bad happening are now doubled.
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markets arethe reacting to it because they are not just afraid of the direct effect. reverse of global trade, it can hurt a lot of economies around the world. stephen: the imf is projecting global growth for the world to be at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis and that is with the china deal. do you think it could be as dire as that? jamie: i think the world economy is doing ok. china is that 6.5%, that is $1 trillion of growth. america will look like almost 3%, that is $500 million. it has slowed down but it is still active. the fly in the ointment would be this -- if it goes south, i think that could change global growth. stephen: do you feel like talks are getting a louder voice in the white house, especially here as the risen pushback to the comments coming from donald trump?
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in that sense, do you hang tough or do you haggle for a less than ideal deal? jamie: i think both sides should do what is in the post -- in their best interest. i think there are serious issues. any to be seriously resolved. i think they made a lot of progress. it is good for both the chinese and the americans. neither side has to do something. i think it is a terrible area, because we are doing better in the economy. just get the proper trade deal done. it may take more time but we should do the proper trade deal. i would rather not do a deal tha n do a bad deal. remember, japan and europe also have a vested interest in this. we are not coordinating with them, but they would like to see a proper trade deal done between china and america, and they can support it. stephen: do you think they can overcome the big differences, which is getting a verifiable timetable for implementation as
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well as reversing of the technology transfers to some of the other big issues on intellectual property? jamie: i don't think there is anything that cannot be resolved. china has opened up a lot of its industries. we have like 25. they have been doing that anyway. they need reform in their own markets for bond markets, equity markets, for transparency, rule of law. i don't expect the chinese to do anything in our interest. i think these things are self-interest. a lot of enterprises do not do well. while you don't want unfair competition, this blows it out of proportion. a country like china is allowed. i wish america had better industrial policy. let them work it out. very smart people on both sides trying to work this out. stephen: do you think there is any risk if this does go sour or pear=-shaped, that the approval process you have in china could
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be delayed? stephen: we were told that won't happen. jamie: it is what it is. i will not say i am worried at all. we do $2 billion of revenue in greater china. we do research on 450 companies. china will double in size the next 15 to 20 years and we want to double there. we can provide a lot of value to china. we bank china companies here, in hong kong, brazil, new york, london. we will keep building that over time. hopefully, we don't become a casualty. stephen: let's put that on the side. what is your immediate term blueprint for china? you have been given government approval for the majority stake in the securities firm. the chinese government as indicated they will allow foreign companies to take up to 100% within three years. your near-term goals are that and then what? jamie: it is more complicated
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than that. right now, we can raise equity, debt, underline, m&a, research in hong kong. we cannot do it necessarily here. it is a full set of licenses. it allows you to do what we already do in hong kong, new york, in shanghai. the chinese markets are about $20 trillion debt equity. that will probably be $80 trillion -- billion. covering all those licenses, legal, credit, hr systems, bankers. getting regulators to approve detailed compliance systems. it is a lot of work. he's now charged with that. stephen: securities license will come by the end of this year? jamie: yeah. stephen: what else too, because there are some new rules that came down last week saying they will open up the domestic bank, they will eliminate the capital requirements that could open the
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door for foreign companies such as years to own or buy the chinese bank. from my past conversations with you, i don't think you are interested. jamie: we can make loans and move money and do different things. it is the security side we are missing. we want to do the same thing in china that we do everywhere else around the world. it is extensive with the licenses. we also have to open in the country to serve some clients. we just have to build. we have to do more, like training, recruiting, hiring a.i., cloud, building data centers. it is a lot of work, but we will get it done. stephen: in a.i., you mentioned you were worried about some of the chinese developments in fint ech an artificial intelligence. what are you worried about? jamie: not really worried. we sent a team of people here. they have done an exceptional job. a.i.'s real, cloud israel. -- is
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real. i think i was slow getting there. when you look at them, it is motivating. we use a.i. for risk, marketing. it's more, faster, quicker and it will touch every single part of our business. how we offer things. the underlining we can do to offers. to me, we have to do it more faster. motivate our people. yes, we expect television. i think the faang, facebook, apple, amazon and google, probably one way or another. payments and maybe making. eventually, we have pay, financial, wechat. we have to be prepared for all of that. we have to be quicker. stephen: what are your concerns about the markets right now? 2.1% in the last couple of days. perhaps the rally and recovery is over, particularly chinese stocks as well.
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are you concerned that maybe donald trump would like to see the stock market performance is a referendum in his success as a president? is he willing to put that aside to get a better deal? jamie: i think it would be a huge mistake for american policy to be based on the stock market. the markets are always going to react to different things. america is growing at 2.5, 3%. china is growing at 6.5%. we look at that. how can we serve those clients over time? the markets will fluctuate. people always get scared and react and overreact to certain events. that is not how we run the company. i don't spend much time worrying about that. stephen: there is some panic in the market. jamie: 800 points in the last two days, something like that. stephen: down last night. jamie: yeah. it is what it is. if you raise the odds of a real global trade war a little bit,
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that was a rational reaction. i hope they get a trade deal done. stephen: did jay powell make the right decision, dampening expectations that he's going too dovish? jamie: i think he reacted in the fourth quarter appropriately to take a look. a lot of major geopolitical issues. the government shut down. there is nothing wrong with wait and see. growth has been good. i think they should stop forecasting. they don't really know the future. of course, they are data dependent. halfing you sick if you are a fed governor, i don't care what the data says, this is what we are doing. that is globally dependent in some cases. they have a huge amount of firepower. they are very smart people. people are constantly -- how they communicate. they got it wrong, got it right. inflation is under 2%. rates are low. they have to navigate what that
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means. we have had unprecedented qe. what was the real long-term effect of that? no one really knows. there always new rules and regulations that completely changed trade policy. a lot of stuff to think about. i think they will end up in the right place. stephen: how much inflation spillover would there be if the trumpet administration goes ahead with additional tariffs? jamie: .4% if it goes all the way to 25% in america. stephen: another round of $325 billion. jamie: i think the .4% would be all of that. stephen: that is manageable under the fed? jamie: of course. stephen: last year when we spoke, you talked about, you were quite bearish on the treasuries being 4%, even as high as 5% yield on the 10 year. do you see that? jamie: i think the 10 year at 2.4% is a short neroli low --
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extraordinarily low. i think when governments bought $10 trillion of sovereign debt, that had to have an effect on their 10 year. the ecb hasn't. bank of england hasn't. they might have to one day. i think 4%, when you are having truly good growth, is not a bad number. the 5% or more is risk management. i have a notion that we know exactly what is going to happen. a company like jpmorgan, i talked to my board, we can handle 5%, 7%, 8% because we don't know. we can handle any of that. i tell people do not always assume -- people tend to forecast a little bit of a change. people almost never capture. stephen: what do you see is a likely year end -- jamie: i have no idea. stephen: 4% on the horizon? jamie: would you rather see 3%
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growth or 2% growth with 2.5% treasury? you have to look at why. the why is always more important than the what. stephen: how about the chinese economy? we have seen the pace of defaults trickling. last year, the first 34 months of the year -- three or four months of the year, there has been a lot of stimulus. there could be more stimulus exacerbating the problem. jamie: not a lot. you have to look at china. china can do something the rest of us cannot do. they can manage industrial policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy in a coordinated way, which is why we think they will accomplish 6.5% growth. they will not do it forever. they won't have that kind of control. they do -- they probably have some significant mpl problems index, but they can handle that. they have the wherewithal,
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capability and the leverage. if i was the chinese regulators, i would not want to grow much more because at one point, it may be so big you cannot handle it. they can probably handle whatever is thrown at them today, including if we don't get a trade deal. they will simply look at the leverage and keep the economy growing. maybe less than before, but they were probably get some growth. stephen: authorities do not have a handle on brexit. how do you see it resolving or not resolving or playing out? jamie: there is hard and soft. we don't think a hard is going to happen. we are prepared for a hard because we have to be. it is probably until late october. a hard brexit would be tough on britain. their gdp and employment, real estate. a soft brexit will be hard too. i don't think it will be massive like soft brexit but over time, they will lose a lot of business if they would have had.
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i think this whole issue of financial services, they will not be the same center of financial services that they are today 10 years from now even under a soft brexit. stephen: so a big mistake? jamie: i think it was. but it is up to the british people. keep your mouth shut, yankee. i have the right to an opinion, but they have to decide. i don't think when they made that decision, the full extent of the issue was disclosed to them. when politicians say to someone, what is your choice? here are the choices and what it means to us. i think it will have significant consequences. stephen: i want to talk about diversity and secession plans at tv morgan. how close are we at seeing a female at the head? stephen: my goal is not to have a female. rishaad: they asked me in congress, i cannot tell you or anyone else what success is. jamie: we have some very capable
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men and very capable women. bus, that isby a one probable set of outcomes. four, five years down, maybe another set of outcomes. we are blessed with talented people, men and women. i don't know when it will be. half are women. i'm proud of that, but we are proud that 3% of the top 250 people, and hopefully we created an environment where everyone can thrive. black, gay, women. we feel really good about where we are. stephen: are we closer to having a plan announced for your successor? jamie: no. again, it is not up to me. i don't think there will ever be a plan announced. succession, the most important thing that will happen for this company for the rest of my life will be secession -- succession. it is board level. the for talks about it every single meeting with or without me in the room. stephen: best of luck to you in
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your various endeavors. you have a lot of iron in the fire in china. every time i talk to you, you said you want the jpmorgan moniker on top of a skyscraper. jamie: we will have it. we have new space in shanghai. coming here 15 years, we covered 240 companies and now it is 450. stephen: jamie dimon, jpmorgan ceo, thank you for having us. jamie: appreciate it. stephen: you have been listening to jamie dimon on bloomberg television as well as bloomberg radio. we will be right back. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ emily: i am emily chang in san francisco, and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, an upbeat earnings report for lyft, its first as a public company. the ride-hailer beat forecasts, but spending also ramped up dramatically. melinda gates opens up. we talk about her new book, where she is putting her money, and what she thinks the biggest priorities for tech should be. and google holds its annual

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