tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg May 14, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT
>> as 10:00 a.m. in new york. 13 minutes into the trading session. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. >> from london, i'm guy johnson. funny: let's take a look at the markets. 30 minutes into the trade, we're looking at a s&p 500 holding its own in spite of several downed stocks. this up half a percent after yesterday's down day. disney is one of the stock higher by 1% after striking a deal with comcast to take operational control of hulu cared and then have the option to sell as hulu. down four and a half years down the line. come -- conquest -- basically a solution for that piece of the business. uber was higher in the premarket. it looked like it might be bouncing after a couple of really bad sessions. right now, it is wavering between gains and losses. we have apple up a third of 1%. all hope is not lost for the
days trade. later this hour, we are going to be speaking to nato secretary jens stoltenberg. >> let's talk about where we are in europe. 90 minutes out from the close, this is where we find ourselves. european stocks are up. not completed closing the gap on yesterday. we are up by. around half of 1%. what's caught have a 1%. miners are doing the heavy lifting. stocks china exposed bouncing back nicely. we are seeing some weakness in the euro. part of that is coming out of italy. mr. cella vini indicating that -- the italy a be prepared to bust european budget rules. is what istor happening in the crude markets. a lot of volatility in the crude markets. first we were up. as the afternoon progressed, we started to move to the downside.
fresh turbulence in the middle east. two aramco-- tour -- plans being attacked. we are up by around 1%. just north of 70 bucks a barrel. >> sticking with markets, let's bring in komal sri-kumar. what did you make of the selloff the last couple of days? >> it has been pretty brutal. it has been clearly a long time coming because the trade war is not over. we have more and more steps coming up in the trade war. when president trump with his sunday tweet increased the pressure on china, it was clear the chinese had to respond. i think we are going to have more of this take place. we better get used too the fact that the downward pressure on equities, the rally in treasury is going to continue. >> for how long?
does it turn into something that has its own momentum? is there a point which this all stops and the fear and panic go away? is this the beginning of a turnover in the market? economiconly took pragmatics is him into account, you would clearly say that in terms of what needs to be done, there are two sides -- the sides need to reach a quick agreement. what that is done -- once that is done, you will have more of a market calm. where we are headed is the fact that the trump base clearly once more pressure put on china. even chuck schumer, the democratic senator, as indicated he would like more pressure put on china. there is enough political momentum to keep that going. it is not easy to back off. endomically, it is easy to
the stock market correction. politically, it is not. that is where you see the big divide take place. >> if i am an investor and have a long portfolio, what do i do? do i stick with the equity market? if i have a wider mandate, am i allowed to use options? what do i do at this point? the risk seems to be growing. >> you are absolutely right. the answer to that is, if you consider yourself a nimble trader, and you can play the -- and say you can get out because the rest of the market does, by all means ride the wave up and down and get your profit out of it. investor, once those who are risk-averse, it is the time to go into the defensive. i have been saying on your program for at least the last
couple of years that bond yields are header -- are headed lower for treasury and a higher. you will see more of that happen. if you want to hide and get return in the process with capital gains, that is the place you want to be. >> you see a big move at the front end of the u.s. curve. your view is that goes further. those yields continue to push even at the front end. the market is already pricing in. front end, you mean the two year, the two year is going to go down. rear, go more towards the 5, 10, 30, they are always -- they are all going to come down. the price up, yield down. they respond to inflation expectations. they respond to economic growth expectations. you are not going to get either of them rapidly soon. when you add them both together,
it gives me a lower yield. that is what i've been saying for a while. i have been negative on economic growth. do not expect inflation to pick up. therefore, i expect bond yields will be lower. in may does volume say so far about $350 billion of equities were traded. in the fourth quarter, each month, we saw a lot more activity. we are getting more volatility. what does that tell you? >> i think you are going to have more and more volatility as you go into the 2020 presidential election. that was the theme of my recent piece for bloomberg opinion. you are going to see two things happen. because of the rush toward safety, there is going to be more volatility in the market. at the same time, you're going to see a stronger dollar as more money goes into u.s. treasury. more money goes into safer
areas. i think that is something we are going to have to live with. increased volatility, not just for a week or two. i am going to see at least a year or a half -- a year-and-a-half ahead of us. >> let's talk about ipo's. volkswagen announced the ipo of its truck unit. it will be the biggest ipo in europe this year. uber stands out as not having gone well. lyft and other one that stands out as not having done well. what kind of market are we going to see for the rest of this year if you're looking to raise money , if you're looking to ipo? what would your advice be to volkswagen? >> my advice would be that the ipos are adding to the excess supply situation in equities. if you already have downward pressure on equities, new ipos coming into the market at the same time added to the pressure. time to be a great in the macro situation.
it suggests this is not great to be an ipo. without looking at the merits of the individual company. from the market viewpoint, it is very untimely to be in the market with an ipo. >> he is staying with us. we have to get to the fed and other stimulus countries like china. that will be in a moment. let's check in on the uber first word news. >> president trump calling on the federal reserve to copy central banks. the president wrote that china will be pumping money into a six to him -- into its system. he added that if the federal reserve today match, it would be game over. u.s. big terry of state mike pompeo has arrived in russia for talks with but a mere prudent. discuss expected to arms-control. the talks are taking place in sochi. saudi arabia says drones attacked stations owned by aramco.
they are linked to a giant pipeline transporting oil. rebels from yemen said they use drones. hasrnor steve bullock become the latest democratic to enter the president to raise. now 22 democrats running for president. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. leinz, this is bloomberg. . >> we've have been hearing new york fed president john williams saying tariffs are acting like a negative supply shot -- supply shock. our interview with him next. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. let's see how they are faring after yesterday. here is abigail doolittle. >> we are seeing a bit of a rebound on this tuesday after the brutal selloff yesterday. last week, the worst week of the year. sellers in firmly control. buyers are trying to step back in. let's take a look at the s&p 500. solid gains come up six tent of 1%. not holding onto those in the early trading. over the last six sessions into today, the s&p 500 down 4%. not reclaiming much of that. the dax up about half a percent. emerging markets down six of the last seven days. . we make it to do some sense of risk as we look at the eight day chart of german bund. yielding eight
basis. points to the negative. . really pretty extraordinary investors. -- the government is borrowing money. down eight days in row. to some investors seeking safety as bonds trade off a little bit in the u.s. what has been mixed on the day, we take a look at the bank trade. we have mixed trading. facebook being hit by the whatsapp spyware report. small gains and losses. apple down six tent, exceeds me, up six times of 1%. sessions, thesix worst six days for apple since 2016. we see that apple has been racially capped between it -- has -- the buyers kodaly -- the buyers totally caught off guard. more selling ahead as we have
momentum declining. those are charts that are worth peg attention to. -- worth paying attention to. new yorkeserve bank president john williams says tariffs are acting like a negative supply shock. as a result, potentially boosting inflation. he spoke to kathleen hays. >> my point of view is always look at the medium-term. where is the economy going in terms of our employment at inflation? in ao keep monetary policy nice balance. i am not going to opine whether the markets or -- markets are right or wrong. we will see how the data come through. we are in the fed. we are in the mantra of data dependency. what that means is to continually reassess. what are the data telling us for the outlook of the economy? focus on the medium-term fuse.
>> the next move could be in either direction. you will do what is appropriate. when does the damage from a continues, even if there size -- if there starts to be a deal made, the tariffs may be in place, when but it become severe enough? when with acute tell you it is time to -- when with the qs tell you it is time to look at a rate cut? >> it is like a negative supply shock. as various effects on the economy -- it has various effects on the economy. it effects -- it affects demand. it has a negative effect on the value chain and how are economic system works. in thinking about the question, we have to keep assessing, what are we learning from the data in terms of those effects? i do not think there is any
threshold or any point. it is assessing where we are in inflation in terms of articles. we need to get inflation back to 2% and keep it there. making sure we can sustain this -- expansion fund. guy: new york fed president john williams speaking exquisitely to kathleen hays -- exclusively to kathleen hays. , threek to our guest kumar. thinkready told us, you inflation is not going down -- is not going up, it is going down. more people still believe inflation is going to rise. talk me through the timeline of how this is going to work. why do you think they could be wrong? at some point, inflation has to pick up. >> it may pick up sometime. i do not think the shock that president williams spoke about is at work.
you have had the fed talk for the last 10 years of inflation reaching the 2% target. at the end of 2017 before she left office, janet yellen said it was because of mobilephone rate prices. you can think of normal reasons why inflation has not picked up. president --rd the the present chairman, room powell, telus -- jerome powell, telus it was transitory. is it permanently transitory? i do not think it is going to pick up this time. the reason is, you asked me why it is not happening, the u.s. population is aging. we do not consume as much as before. numbers,itative easing 1, 2, and three, which deprived
low and middle income groups of interest income, they did not have enough income to spend. the stock market was boosted. the stock market investors are not as big spenders. that was the second reason for that. third, your reaching the situation where you need immigrant who are young, who are willing to spend. that is what we used to have in the unites states. in the last couple of years, immigration is being threatened. we are not going to have inflation coming from the young people. the question you ask is, when will it turn around? you tell me when the u.s. population stops getting older. that will happen if we have more young people to balance the population. you will have it when the quantitative easing is no logo after 10nd the feds years of fighting irresponsible policy, go back to doing something positive. then inflation will go up.
it is not go up by making speeches on a regular basis. that does not do it. economic theory does not work that way. vonnie: the president tweeted that china will be putting money into their system to make up for the business they will be losing. in any event, china wanted you. also saying today that the president once the fed and china to stimulate the u.s. economy. he also once the fed to stimulate. could that be an answer? does the president have a game plan? will it work? presidentnow, the has been urging the federal reserve to cut interest rates. moore, the, stephen fed governor nominee as well as they kudlow, have also did
need a 50% cut in interest rates. perhaps they are reasoning that if they cannot do it by telling the fed to do it, they can do it with the trade war. fed tower would push the cut interest rates. the reality is, the stimulus that comes from interest rate cuts is going to be more than offset by the negative of the trade war. that is the reality. guy: we are going to leave it there. president. thank you for coming to see us. >> great to be in london. guy: this is bloomberg. ♪
it is urging users to update their software. there is a report that vulnerability has allowed attackers to hack into phones using commercial is really spyware -- commercial is really spyware. i thought whatsapp had end to end encryption. i thought i would be safe. is that just marketing? >> well, it is not exactly just marketing. encryption is useful in that it reduces the possibility that access will actually get to your messages and that it makes an attack more expensive. that youres not mean communications are safe. hacker gets control of your or your microphone, your camera, the ability to take
screenshots, the ability to log your keystrokes, your communications will still be read. what you sent before it gets encrypted and what you receive after a gets encrypted -- after it gets encrypted. that is what has happened. the malware that was installed, spyware, ismade actually able to grab control of the functions of your phone. in that way, it exposes your communications. vonnie: culpability and accountability. you say the spyware community has known about pegasus and the problems for years. who is responsible here? the nso who made pegasus say it is not them. they do not sell it to will build parties. facebook does not seem to be
taking any accountability. whose fault is this? party alwayssible in these cases is the hacker, the hacking team that actually deployed the malware. in any product, there may be vulnerabilities. it is normal for tech companies to have them in their products and to take action as soon as they are discovered. i think facebook and whatsapp are acting to fix the football. -- to fix the flaw. in maker of the spyware is the same way responsible as the maker of a weapon. if this company does not make the spyware, someone else will. the ultimate responsibility is with a hacker and the intelligence services who use the spyware. vonnie: a little like saying the response ability is the criminal's. thank you for joining.
greateste now for our bloomberg flesh. shares of uber are higher. the ride-hailing service had fallen 18% in the first two days since last week's public offering. critics are saying whether the syndicate led by morgan stanley fights to aggressively. disney has struck a deal with comcast nbc universal tua seem operational control of who. disney -- of hulu. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. still ahead, we are going to be speaking with nato secretary jens stoltenberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
update. he with the details, kailey leinz. kailey: a meeting next month could be crucial between -- crucial in solving the trade war between the u.s. and china. trump says he will meet with xi jinping at the g20 summit. the u.s. is preparing new tariffs on threat a billion dollars of chinese goods. u.s. attorney general william barr plans to investigate the investigation. he reportedly has appointed the u.s. attorney in connecticut to investigate the origins of special counsel robert mueller scope into the investigation. the goal was to see if intelligence operations were legal. in alaska, four people were killed and two others are missing after two sightseeing planes collided in the air. it occurred in the southeastern town. bayer has lost three trials in a row.
payunty has ordered them to $2 trillion. they will appeal. they call the verdict excessive and unjustifiable. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz, this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. bayer is on our agenda today. the company ordered to pay $2 billion in damages to a california couple that says they got cancel -- they got cancer from around up weedkiller. -- from the roundup weedkiller. bayer may end up only paying $110 million. that is to be seen. the company is going to end up taking a massive -- after this acquisition.
it was lauded as a great acquisition. guy: stocks down 40% since the monsanto acquisition. investors certainly being punished for the. this is what is going to happen. they being -- they are going to be forced to come to a settlement. they cannot continue to take losses like this. nevertheless, it is likely to yer to the negotiating table. something they have resisted thus far. vonnie: emma chandra is here with more information. will this get written down? will it be a better story in the future? >> i am sure they are hoping it will be a better story for them in the future. the $2 billion, some analysts are calling scary. the jury had been directed to offer $1 billion in damages. they came back with $2 billion. a lot of analysts saying the number will come down on appeal. it is a lot higher than had been expected.
what it will do is force them to come to the table and figure out a way to settle some 13,000 cases that have been brought against the roundup weedkiller as a way to avoid more of these trials and ways in which juries can award these damages. bloomberg intelligence saying that if they do settle, the full settlement value is $10 billion. prior to that, it had been six plain dollars. guy: i guess investors can start to get there arms around understanding what the risk here and what it ultimately looks like. this all started with the acquisition of monsanto. the due diligence that was done has to be called into question. the understanding of the risks that were taken on has to be called into question. are there going to be legal ramifications for not doing sufficient due diligence? these numbers are scary. >> they are being called scary.
a number of analysts calling them scary. you would think that the due diligence around the acquisition will be called the question. certainly shareholders did not have some very nice things to say. , thee shareholder meeting ceo was lambasted for the risk associated. terribletalking about sentiment around the company. you were saying before the stock has fallen 40% since the acquisition. is vowing to challenge the ruling. they are calling it excessive and unjustifiable. they had always said roundup does not cause cancer. they had a little bit of justification. the u.s. epa saying last month that the ingredient in question is not carcinogenic. that is not how juries are
viewing the evidence. one thing that is interesting on the bloomberg report, the lawyer asked one of the juries after the verdict what they wanted to hear from bayer during the trial. that juror said, we wanted to see you drink it quite frankly. vonnie: well that was saying something. our stock of the hour is bayer. oil prices jumping today. saudi arabia has shut its main pipeline after a drone attack. yemen rebels are claiming responsibility. joining us from dubai is anthony. thank you for joining. how much does this put pressure on the price of oil? we already seeing -- we are already seeing factors. what happens? >> good afternoon. that is right.
this is the second attack in three days on saudi oil assets we have seen. they did close down the main cross-country pipeline that brings oil from the eastern oil fields to the western refineries and expert facilities. with something of that magnitude, you would expect oil to jump. the reaction was a little bit muted toward the beginning of this week when there were those waters wheree uae two saudi tankers were attacked. riskarket is weighing the to supply and the geopolitical risk against things like the situation with tariffs between the u.s. and china. like the issues around global growth. that is going to hurt some oil demand. if we have some tangible oil taken off the market, that is going to be a big risk to oil. especially as we already have limited volumes coming out of
iran and venezuela. guy: can i link what has happened today with these two accounts -- two attacks with what happened earlier on over the weekend around the straits of hormuz? these pipelines have excess capacity. for provide an option lifting cargoes through the gulf therefore, not having to access the straits of hormuz. if i was coordinating these things, this would maybe one thing i would think about. can i join the dots? >> i think that in looking at risk, you, the oil have to look at those two together. whether we can say the same actors were involved, we are not at that point. so far, the uae and saudi authorities have not directly pointed the finger at iran for the sunday incident involving a
tankers. the saudi energy minister was indicating iran and the hutu rebels as potential sponsors of terrorist. you have to look at those two together. there is a lot of spare capacity on the pipeline in saudi arabia. there is not a huge amount of export coming out of the pipeline. that is another option. that pipeline has a full capacity of 5 billion barrels. a day that is versus 7 million barrels of total saudi exports. that pipeline cannot make up for all of the exports in the street of hormuz if that were to be closed. it would at least keep a sizable portion of it back on the market. that is the way we had looked at things. attack on the first the pipeline closing some of the capacity. guy: you put those things together, it is not a great cocktail. thank you very much indeed.
joining us as part of the great coverage we are getting from bloomberg news. vonnie: checking markets, we have an update. making up some of yesterday's losses. the s&p 500 is up a tens of 1%. several stocks are lower, including retailers targeting gap. ralph lauren trades impacting as well. the dow up three quarters of 1%. the nasdaq up nine tents. this is bloomberg. ♪
europe are tents to say the least. nato secretary general. >> thanks, bonnie. a lot has changed since i last spoke to jens stoltenberg in november on the geopolitical front. thank you for joining me. i want to start with what might happen this weekend. the u.s. may open up another trade war the european union. two pillars of the same security line might be at war with each other over trade tariffs. does this further fragment nato? >> the trade issues are very important issues. i do not expect them to negatively impact nato. what we have seen is despite differences between allies on trade and climate change, nato has been able to unite to keep each other safe based on the principle, one for all, and offer one.
-- one-for-one -- all for one . >> you think president trump is using tariffs as a way to get countries on other issues like defense spending? >> i do not think so. i think the trade issues are linked to -- allies have to spend more on defense. this is not only his opinion. this is the opinion of the entire nato alliance. now startedies have to increase. we will add 100 billion to our defense budget by the end of next year. >> washington and brussels do not agree over the iran nuclear deal. broadly, a lot of policies in the middle east. how effective can this alliance be when two sides are not even on the same page when it comes to key global security dossiers?
>> what we have seen is that despite differences on some issues like the iran nuclear to dowe have been able more together now then we have for many years. the united states are increasing their military presence in europe. european allies are stepping up with troops in the eastern part of the alliance. we are spending more. we are reforming our economics treasure. there are some serious disagreements. i am not underestimating the challenges with them. when it comes to the core business, the security and defense are the biggest reinforcement. >> how concerned are you about tensions in the middle east and the escalation of an armed conflict? iran'sre concerned about activity in the region. destabilizing the region and supporting terrorist organizations.
also, the missile program. we are closely monitoring the situation. allies are consulting on that. >> speaking of missile programs, i want to ask you about turkey. bloomberg learned that turkey is considering the u.s. request to delay buying the rush holt -- the russian missing -- the russian missiles. at him what are the applications if turkey goes ahead and purchases the missile? decision toational like military system turkey has decided to buy from russia. at the same time, the united states has stated that the s 400 system operating in the same 35 --y to have as .his is an issue i discussed it last week with president trump.
efforts ofts all trying to find a way to solve the issue. >> i want to ask you about china quickly. i know that nato has been working on cyber espionage. the u.s. considers chinese equipment like huawei as a security threat to the west. does nato agree with that assessment? >> it is an ongoing discussion. allies, how to define the different requirements for investments in 5g technology. this is important because 5g is important for how our modern societies will work in the future. it is important for nato that we ensure our systems are secure. that we have resilience in our basic infrastructure. this is something that has been thoroughly analyzed. >> you are heading to downing street.
are you going to bring up chinese aspe and eyes with theresa may -- chinese espionage with theresa may? >> they 90 kingdom is a very important -- the united kingdom is a very important ally. to meet prime minister theresa may -- is always a pleasure. >> thank you for your time. that was the nato secretary-general, jens stoltenberg. guy: thank you very much. let's talk about the derivative of that conversation. what is happening with the crude -- the price of crude right now. we have seen a bumpy ride. over two days, we are trading a little but higher. yesterday afternoon, we saw a little bit of a selloff as the trade narrative started to exert itself. today, the golf story -- the gulf story. 621ave nymex trading at
guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. joining us is dan deming. the nature of kkm financial. how do you trade oil with all of the various cost currents at work? >> there is a lot of crosscurrents. it is very contingent on the news items breaking. when you look at the options activity on the june contract, a very active options activity. you are seeing quite a bit of repositioning as the markets digest some of the dynamics. when you see some of the disruptions, the attacks on the gulf of oman, we saw quite a
spike in crude. trying to reestablish itself. that is the real key. we are seeing the equity markets -- that is what is pushing the act -- the commodity space and crude higher. vonnie: is it all contingent on try to -- on china trading? do the attacks even have an impact if there is no china trade deal? think that is to be determined. when you look at china, the trade negotiations continue to be a volatile situation. i can tell you we have china and india opting not to take there may purchases from iran. there is i dynamic the market has to -- there is a dynamic the market has to contend to. the other thing to focus on is the production in the united states. we continue to see deficiencies being realized.
a little bit of supply coming out of the u.s. then what was anticipated. maybe that will be an offsetting factor. vonnie: typically volatility is good for traders. there has been a lot of that in the oil market. is a good for traders down at the cme? >> it create some activity. it depends on if you are a premium seller or buyer. ultimately, the volatility opportunitiess throughout the day. you are seeing that play out today. you are seeing a big pickup as hedging is coming in. opportunities to reassess and reevaluate the crude space moving forward. vonnie: let's turn to the dollar. there are slightly different dynamics at play. where do you anticipate the dollar going? >> i think it is yet to be determined. it has found his range around 97. it has been holding it for quite
some time. ultimately, what the fed continuing to be accommodative in the dynamics with the u.s. and china trade relationship, that dynamic is going to keep the dollar in check as we see some potential currency wars taking place. it looks like china may be initiating that already. when you look at the fed being accommodating and the fed floods looking for a cut, that is going to keep the dollar and a check. -- the dollar in check. vonnie: with rates back down, when you come in, is it s&p futures you are looking to for production on the day? what are you looking to? >> the s&p futures are the ones that certainly set the tone. you can gauge from there. also the 10 year. all eyes are on the yield. look at the cme spread watch tool. you are still seeing a pricing
for a high probability of a cut by the end of the year. that is another thing the market is trying to digest. the two-year at 218, that is up almost 25 basis points. where the fed funds are set, that dynamic is playing into why you are seeing the dollar moderate. vonnie: thank you for your time. that is dan deming of kkm financial. guy: time for a bloomberg business flash. it is a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. let's kick off with nissan. profits are the less than expected. they are trying to recover from aging vehicle models and an out product cycle. twice in the last fiscal year, nissan cut its forecast. those after the arrest of the former channon -- the former chairman. the profit fell 27%. that is likely to reinforce
criticism from top investors that the company needs dramatic action. new.eo outlined a strategic plan. it includes giving up a joint venture. germany, allie oz investment saw investment grow to the first quarter. client added $20 billion, reversing outflows to the end of the year. the firm manages 1.5 trillion outside client. they own pimco and allie on's global investors. >> what we are seeing now as we going to the second quarter is positive development. about 10st six weeks, billion additional influx. for the time being, we remain positive on the development. the core asset is the strength of the performance we are
bringing to the customers. guy: that is your bloomberg business flash. vonnie: a check of the markets. we are getting a little bit of a rebound following the down day we had yesterday. 700 points wiped off the dow yesterday. we are up almost 200 of those point. three quarters of 1%. several stocks are higher. retailers are pulling on the s&p 500. it is also up within a 10th of a percent gain. we are back to 241 on the 10 year. a little stamper on the vix. we had a particularly volatile day yesterday. this is bloomberg. ♪
guy: 30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. guy: european markets are trading or session highs. i mean equity markets. the stoxx 600 is up .7%. yesterday was a tough day. more tough in the united states than it was in europe. europe's defensive policies coming to the fore. euro-dollar trading just north of 1.12. it was knocked earlier on by the italians coming out and saying he may be prepared to break the european budget rules. that sent shudders through the foreign exchange market. , a number of characteristics affecting the market. you have the trade narratives. that seems to be subsume