tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg May 14, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
where the world of politics meets the world of business. today, michael mckee on the u.s. china trade dispute. from washington, kevin cirilli on the ever-growing crowd of democrats running for president, and will kennedy from london on a cash -- on attacks on oil assets in saudi arabia. michael, it has been a tumultuous few days in the market. is it because president trump says a workout? michael: it is hard to know why they're coming back. it is hard to know how to read this thing. the bond market looks like it is priced for a trade war. donald trump has not given us an indication that will end soon. tweeting the u.s. will be able to outlast the chinese because we have a big economy. he says the u.s. is in contact with the chinese but did not say there any negotiations. it does appear like we are settling in for some time with tariffs in place.
releasing a list of $325 billion worth of products that have not been termed yet. -- been tariffed yet. we want to talk you about whether the fed might come to the president's assistance. kevin: montana governor throwing his hat into the crowded democratic primary field. he is going to be jockeying for that centrist lane. it also comes at a time when the key front-runner and top-tier candidates remain joe biden and bernie sanders, who have got into a back-and-forth over the green new deal. we should note that freshman congresswoman alexandria herio-cortez is making
beliefs known in the presidential field, backing the type of new energy deal senator sanders is putting forward. david: you found one democrat not running for president, well done. we tend to focus how they can get attention in the media. one about the money -- what about the money? is there enough money around 22 candidates to get traction into iowa? david: is in it -- kevin: it is an interesting question. so many top-tier candidates are trying to distance themselves from large financial institutions and the populist rhetoric. take senator bernie sanders and senator elizabeth warren. they have a tight political tightrope to walk as they head into these early stages. it is why they are organizing in states like iowa and south carolina. look for small dollar donations, look for the numbers and how they are trying to rally the troops in that sense. you are right.
there a donor fight that has been going on for well over a year. david: thank you so much from a sunny white house. you can send that sun to new york if you want. let's get over to london and will kennedy. we heard reports about possible attacks on saudi and other oil tankers and now we're hearing things about pipelines in saudi arabia. what is going on? tensions are rising in the region and the attacks we saw are contributing. what exactly happened with the saudi's? two explosive drones through into their -- flew into their airspace and attacked pumping stations on the main pipeline that carries crude oil from the west and east of the country, allowing them to export from both coasts. those pumping stations were damaged. they had to shut down the pipeline. -- not not cause any causing any disruption at the moment.
oil prices rose by a dollar after the attack. that this isnce is happening in a context of escalating tensions between saudi arabia and iran on either side of the persian gulf and between washington and iran. saudi arabia was quick to blame iran, who backed the levels that can -- that claimed responsibility for the attack. saudi arabia was quick to blame iran. david: in the meantime there were reports of possible attacks on tankers. we just saw video that seem to show a damaged tanker. people are tracking it back to iran. do we know the source of these attacks? will: with the drone attacks the rebels in- yemen did claim responsibility. the tanker attacks earlier in the week were a lot more mysterious. no one has claimed
responsibility. some officials in washington agree it may be iran but there is no evidence at all. that one remains shrouded in mystery. at a time when the u.s. is increasing its presence in the region, selling an aircraft carrier into the persian gulf, it all adds to these escalating tensions and sense of military tension. in the meantime, we're in the middle of a news conference from mike pompeo and the foreign minister of russia in sochi and they've been talking about iran with mike pompeo saying the u.s. position on iran has been consistent. is there any hope russia could help us with iran? will: russia does have leverage in iran. they have been allies over the years. the problem russia has is in oil and politics. russia and saudi arabia are key
allies in this opec deal to manage oil supplies and keep oil prices high. that is not making them particular popular in iran because iran's feeling is the rest of opec is helping president trump's agenda by agreeing to replace oil that iran cannot export because of sanctions. it is possible moscow does have leverage in iran. it is a complicated web of relationships based around oil and politics. david: thank you for reporting from london. let's go back to michael mckee. we will put back up trumps week from earlier that says president xi has the pboc on his side, why can't i get the fed on my side? if the fed matched with a were doing in china, it would begin over. is he right -- it would be game over? is he right? michael: no. he is right that the u.s. has a bigger economy and the damage
will be less of a gdp -- of a gdp factor in the u.s. that in china. the fed is not going to do that because the u.s. economy seems to be in a sweet spot. david: in the -- if the tariffs , could president trump get the fed to come around to his way? if you look at where the markets are pricing, the markets are saying it is almost a sure thing we will have a cut this year. michael: the markets have been saying this for some time based on the fact that the fed has dot plot inflation up. the fed says inflation -- has not gotten inflation up. inflation -- we can sit back and wait. inflation is not bad. we not missing by much. it is unlikely that unless something serious happens we could see a rate cut. the markets can always drive that. remember november and december?
david: now let's find out what is going on the markets. here is emma chandra. emma: quite the reversal today. all of the majors in the green. the dow, the s&p, the nasdaq all rising more than 1%. we are at the highs of the session. if we take a look at the imac , andion on the terminal exact reversal of what we saw yesterday. every single sector on the s&p 500 in the green. only utilities in the red. yesterday it was the exact reverse. gains being led by tech, energy, and financials. oil of 1.4%, seeing the biggest gain in three weeks. that is down to what you were discussing, saudi arabia reporting drone attacks on pumping station. i want to look at the big energy movers. we are seeing every aspect of the energy sector on the move and doing well. 1.2%, look at exxon, up
best day in three weeks. eog resources rising after outperforming in the first quarter and valero energy gaining an upgrade from jpmorgan. i also mentioned tech doing much better. microsoft and apple leading the way. apple was the biggest laggard on the s&p 500 yesterday. it is now the second-best performer on the s&p 500. also let's look at chips because they were struggling yesterday. this was the philadelphia semiconductor index up 2.2%. also advanced micro devices rising close to 3%. let's take a look at bitcoin. not something we've talked about for a while, rising for the 12th straight day. this is year to date, up 113%
since the beginning of the year, trading above 8000. doing pretty well. that 12 day winning streak the longest since 2017. david: what a difference a day makes. thank you so much for all of that green. sticking with the trade war, is tit with chinar about economics or security? that is coming up and this is bloomberg. ♪
dead after midair collision between two planes in alaska. the planes were carrying cruiseship passengers near a southeast alaska town. the national transportation safety board will arrive to investigate the incident later this afternoon. montana governor steve bullock has become the latest in mccracken to the 2020 presidential race. he has twice been elected to lead a state that donald trump by more than 20 points. there are now 22 democrats running for the white house. the president's latest tariffs majoring america's battery. the tariffs will -- china makes up roughly 40% of u.s. battery importers. previously, only components of batteries had been subject to tariffs. theresa may is coming under more pressure to pull out of brexit talks with the opposition labor party. critics in her conservative party are pressing the prime
minister to set a date for her own departure. bloomberg has learned that the latest cross party talks aimed at ending the deadlo ended witht substantive progress. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david? rift betweenowing the united states and china is framed around trade. are there larger issues at stake? we spoke with kyle bass earlier today and he depicted the feud in more existential terms. kyle: once you get over the fact that there is no rule of law there, they do not respect human rights and they do not play by our rules, if you can get over those three things, maybe you should invest more money in china. the u.s. institutional community is preaching its fiduciary duty to its own investors by investing in a country that has
that many problems. khanna,e welcome parag the founder and future manager -- and the author of the future is asian. he comes to us from washington. looking back. good to have you with us. parag: great to be with you. david: address the issue kyle bass laid out. we tend to think this is a trade dispute involving goods and services. some people are saying this is a national security issue. his points page a stark picture of the difference in the social and political nature of the regime and society and political systems and so forth between the u.s. and china. the point he is making when he talks about the asset management community, the institutional investors, his recommendation they not pursue deeper investments speaks to the other end larger dimension of china's economic rise.
the opinion he holds stands in stark contract. that is why his warning is so strongly worded about how the u.s. institutional investment community is looking sanguine opportunity to invest in china and other markets. that is chileans of dollars. the total value -- that is trillions of dollars. the total value of chinese debt is relatively low but could stand to quintuple over the course of the next several years. in order magnitude greater significance than the states in this trade war. it is an interesting point he is making. david: where you point toward is this is a more fundamental dispute. the markets may not appreciate how fundamental it is for both countries.
that leads me to the question of who has the upper hand? let's compare the economies. i can put up a chart that shows the rate of gdp growth in china. china is growing substantially more than the united states. president trump seems to think he is holding the high cards in this game. theg: that would not be metric to use in terms of determining who has greater leverage in the geo economic contest. this is a national security issue, a geo economic issue every bit as much as it is what has been perceived as a short-term trade issue. terms, and economy of more than $20 trillion will decelerate. that has been the case since before the trade war began. if you're looking for tactical consequences of the trade more have been supply chains shifting out of china at an accelerated rate. -- those, those a lot
are not the metrics they would use. they are looking at achieving greater self-sufficiency. that is the holy grail of geopolitics, not simply to be the largest economy but to have a greater self-sufficiency. that is what this trade war is inadvertently accelerating their efforts towards. made inmember that china 2025 and its antecedents in terms of other five-year plans aimed at self-sufficiency now accelerate. their efforts to domestically chips willlicon accelerate because they feel they will not be able to -- they fear they will not be able to get them from intel and other u.s. suppliers as in the past because of our export controls. that will benefit some of our geopolitical allies, but our geo economic competitors like japan
and south korea. this is a multiplayer game, it is a tug-of-war. we cannot measure geopolitical victories in a narrow time horizon the way one can if you are looking to see who is scoring points in a trade war. view: that is a terrific of the chinese and how they see the longer-term strategic goals. play the same game from the united states point of view. how can we play the strategically and get away from a bilateral question of beijing versus washington. this goes to the center of your book about the need to look beyond china when we look at asia. we can put up a chart that shows the rate of growth. if you pick the seven countries likely to grow the most, a number are from asia. parag: this is a great point and that data point comes from standard chartered that i have been citing. the rest of asia is outperforming china in growth. starting from a lower base, but
given the younger demographics and the liberalization going on in those economies, one can predict there will be a steady growth in those economies like india through indonesia and the philippines for the next decade or more. eagerare obviously very to capture the supply chains coming out of china. the asian story is a lot bigger than china. that is why from the corporate american standpoint, part of the irony of the trade war is it is harming some of our most profitable sectors in technology that are now going to struggle in the chinese market. they are going to have to redirect their efforts even more toward capturing market share in those other economies. as they get there, they will recognize one of their biggest competitors is one way when it cut -- is huawei when it comes to issues like 5g. one of the things the u.s. does the does start to do is think
about national champions and greater public-private cooperation the way our european allies and the way asian countries are already accustomed to doing. david: is it possible president trump is playing a more strategic game then we in the media give him credit for? you hear about disruption of supply chains. are you starting to see supply chains change away from china and toward southeast asia, countries that might in the longer-term rebound to the u.s. benefit? parag: that is something that has been underway since before the trade war. japan was the first major power with the huge investment footprint and portfolio across asia to massively redirect out of china toward southeast asia, beginning almost 10 years ago. the rest of us are just following japan's lead in that regard. when it comes to the accelerated impact that will have on growth in those non-china emerging markets, that is very positive story. for american companies to
benefit, the trump administration would have supported the trans-pacific partnership rather than backing away from it. right now the u.s. not joining the tpp benefits canada, japan, australia, south korea, and other countries that are now active in the region. some of the other data shows us how their exports are growing while owls are receding in -- while hours are receding in the region. khanna,hat is parag author of the future is asian. coming up, polo shirts could be caught in the trade fight and that is one of the reasons ralph lauren is slumping. the stock of the hour is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
crosshairs of the trade war are raising concerns and emma chandra is here to explain. emma: the stock was up and then it fell. the earnings looked good when they came out. earnings per share better than expected. when it comes to revenue and profit beat expectations. gross margins rose. what is driving that sales momentum is sales in asia and europe, both of those positive. not the case in north america. north america does make up 50% of total sales for ralph lauren. we are seeing the move in the stock down, more than halfing the gain ralph lauren has seen to date. it is the trade war that is concerning some investors. when you look at the terror list for expanding tariffs, that is starting to include a number of items that ralph lauren would sell. david: those things are more
ineffective. emma: not included, now they are. david: that does not seem to be going away anytime soon. what is their plan. emma: the ceo says they're working with chinese suppliers to drive down costs and diversifying their supply chain. they will have to pass on the cost. david: there is that. thanks so much, emma chandra. president trump says his trade battle will mean a stronger economy. our tariffs taking our country in the right direction? we'll ask americans for prosperity president tim phillips. you can watchrg, all of our interviews and check out our graphics. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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china's central bank. on twitter, he wrote that china will be pumping money into its system and reducing interest rates. he added if the federal reserve ever did a match, it would be game over we win. in new york state, the democratic-controlled assembly may pass a new law that would allow the house ways and means committee to request the records of any new york state taxpayer including president trump. governor cuomo says he will sign the bill if it passes both -- both houses. it will give congressional democrats a more complete view of the president's finances. senators ted cruz and others plan to introduce a bill targeting a proposed natural -- natural gas pipeline between russia and germany. it would deny visas to executives from companies linked to the vessels. president trump is criticizing the project. lng from north
america. mike pompeo has been meeting with russian foreign minister. he told the foreign minister that interference with u.s. elections is unacceptable. mike pompeo since the u.s. does not seek a war with iran. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. u.s. tariffs are acting like a negative supply shop. -- shock. >> my point of view is to look at the medium term. where is the economy going? to keep monetary policy and a
nice balance in terms of our goals. i will not opine whether the markets are right or wrong because we will have to wait and see. the fed is in the mantra of data dependency. that means to continuously reassess what the data is telling us about the economy and focus on the medium-term view of how to best achieve our goals. >> it is said the next move could be in a different direction. aen it does the damage from trade war if it continues, people are not looking for anything quickly. if it starts to be some deal made, the tariffs may stay in place. when would it become severe enough? but it is time to start looking at a possible rate cut? tariffsthink of the like it is a negative supply
shock. it has various affects on the economy. it will probably boost inflation. it affects demand and growth. it also has negative effects on and how ourains economic system works. thinking about that, we have to keep assessing, evaluating what we are learning from the data in terms of those effects. also the broader set of developments. i don't think there is any threshold or specific point. it is just assessing where we are in terms of inflation because we want to get it back to 2% and keep it there on a sustained basis. >> that was the fed president in new york. we now welcome tim phillips. you heard what john williams had to say there. there was not a lot of good.
these going to lead to prosperity for americans? >> they are not. tariffs, protectionism whether instituted by democrats or republicans, they always lead to prices going up. a new tax in reality on american consumers. it hurts american farmers and businesses. that thecial to note moment a tariff comes off, you don't automatically get the market share backed that a farmer or business or industry has lost overseas. au have a disruption of supply chain and by these tariffs. you may never get the markets back again even if the tariffs are removed. a dangerous game being played. it is hurting our nation. >> is this economics or national security?
>> that is a fair point to bring up that national security interests do sometimes cause nations to do things that harm themselves economically. in our view, this is going far beyond that. tariffs have been used by this administration against good out allies. the u.k., canada, others on the steel and aluminum. administration, they are doing a lot of good things. the tax cuts were crucial to get the economy going. they are eliminating regulation and red tape. they are doing a lot of good things. they are undermining it with these tariffs and protectionist policies. not just with china but across the world. >> when you say things like that to the administration, what response do you get? we hear from the president that china is paying for the tariffs. economists uniformly say china
does not pay the tariffs, it is u.s. companies and ultimately consumers that pay it. what response do you get from the white house when you make that point? >> i believe the administration and generate -- genuinely believes they are doing the right thing. , weespect their analysis just disagree with of the policy they are implementing. i don't have to talk to economists to tell you these tariffs are hurting. . have been out in farm country i have been an energy country. i have been across this country. farmers, small and large businesses, they tell me the pain they are undergoing because of the market disruptions. because of the cost increases that these tariffs are bringing about. a lot of americans are being hurt. it is undermining an economic recovery that is gaining steam. there is good news.
this administration has done some good things to help people. they are undermining it with these tariffs. there is no good that is coming out of this and it is crucial to note that when you say a tariff gives you leverage, it is oferage on the backs american consumers, farmers and businesses. >> yet there is broad agreement on both sides of the aisle that something needs to be done with china. there needs to be reform and the way we do business with china. any other way to get to the result the president wants? i think most people would agree with the ultimate result he is talking about. >> the wto, it is not perfect. on a lot of the ip questions that have come before it, there has been movement and china and other nations have respected to of those rulings. that is a better case.
i don's good to conflate trade barriers and policy with intellectual property. the two are separate issues. the wto has been more effective than people realize. i think more engagement is better than less engagement when you are trying to work through issues. one last point i will make, it is undeniable that in the last two decades, the trade we have had with china has been positive. it has been a prosperity builder for the people of our nation. yes, there are problems but when you look at the overall balance sheet, our economy has become more prosperous whether it is for consumer products we buy every day or whether it is new markets for our farmers and businesses. yes, there are problems. this relationship has been an absolute benefit for the prosperity of our nation. >> you spent some time on capitol hill.
will the republican senators stick with the president on this? aretor grassley and others saying there is too much pain out there with farmers and others and we have to bring an end to this. >> we are constantly talking to members of both parties. republicans especially since they are in the majority. they are making a move toward congress's authority when it comes to trade. congress has a constitutional role. some senators are put forward legislation that will regain congress's traditional role and require them to vote up or down on tariffs in the future. we hope that mitch mcconnell will give those a hearing and a vote in the united states senate. it have these senators go on the record. i think a lot of republicans are uneasy. they are talking to the administration. we need to vote up or down on
say legislation that will congress has to vote up or down when an administration proposes a tariff. >> thank you for your time. that was tim phillips. coming up, tensions with iran are escalating in the wake of escalating sanctions. thealk with one of principal architects of the iran nuclear accord. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
program if europe continued to comply with sanctions. mike pompeo addressed at possibility of escalation between the u.s. and iran to reporters in sochi. looking for iran to be like a normal country. to the applied pressure leadership of iran to achieve that. we fundamentally do not seek a war with iran. we are looking for the regime to simply stop conducting assassination campaigns throughout europe. to cease their support of has the law. our guests served as secretary of energy under barack obama. he joins us today from washington, d.c.. you heard what mike pompeo just said. you know this sit -- situation
so well. can we separate out the nuclear enrichment issue from things like hezbollah? >> there is no question in anyone's mind that many of our ron's activities are automatic. i maintain that the philosophy that we had in negotiating is a correct one. namely, the nuclear weapon threats to get it off the table. permanently, in fact. strongeste world's transparency verification regime then work with our allies in the and those with whom we negotiated the deal, the europeans russia and china to resolve the other problems. >> we have heard that they are
going to step back from the .greements they made if they don't get relief with respect to europe. do we know what steps they would be taking in terms of uranium enrichment and how threatening is that? >> they have made a couple of respectingabout not the limits on heavywater and the ofits on accumulation nuclear material. i want to emphasize this is not nuclear weapons material but in rich uranium. what i would say is the jcpoa has always had its major focus on the issue of limiting curtailing the production of nuclear material. clearly, that would be a most if theye development were to exceed those limits. , aefully, in these 60 days resolution to this can be found
so that iran can stay within the parameters of the agreement. >> if they did take the steps they have indicated, what it take a significant step toward developing a nuclear weapon or tothis more of a gesture demonstrate how displeased they are? >> if we maintain the verification regime, the inspectors have really stepped up the game in terms of looking at what is happening there. not just in the facilities that they have declared but also in gaining access to other facilities where there might be some suspicion of noncompliant behavior. so far, the inspectors have found iran to be clean on that. that is very important. thate end, we must realize a iran were to restart nuclear weapons program which we know they have in a structured
way until 2003, if they were to restart that, the odds of being atght with these new tools the disposal of the international inspectors and of course national intelligence capabilities would really raise the bar dramatically and would the completeing brunt of the international community returned to them. in contrast, one of the collateral damages of the way we are approaching this withdrawing from the agreement is that it is very unlikely no matter what happens that we will see the kind of cohesive approach between the united states, europe russia and china that we enjoyed in the negotiations. there was no doubt that all the rolling together to get iran's program under strong surveillance and under strong restrictions for 15
years. >> from your understanding, do you think there is any between the diminishment of the jcpoa and activities we are seeing over there and reports about attacks on tankers that seem to be vague right now but there are indications it might retract tracked back to iran. we have drawn strikes on pipelines and pumping stations. is it possible they are slipping the leash a little bit? >> i am not going to speculate as to the origin of these incidents. certainly not until our intelligence community is very confident in their rulings. i think the real issue here is that the risk of an escalation of things just getting out of control is too high.
way to hopefully continue the pressure to resolve some of the regional issues like the yemen conflict. where we haveace no way of managing crises that could get out of control. certainly, everyone has been talking about not wanting a military confrontation that is certainly a very good idea to avoid a military confrontation. we have had too much of that in the region in the last 15 years. againste must guard miscalculation blender. stumbling into what becomes a military confrontation. >> this is a hard one. you are a nuclear physicist. been involved in
controlling nuclear weapons. give me an order, the russian situation and the backing a way of controlling russian armaments. also iran. which is more dangerous? >> i will say the only one where i would consider there to be an existential threat against the russia.tates is from simply because of the size of their stockpile. case where wer are concerned about blundering situation.alation we feel very strongly that we must renew the kinds of strategic discussions with russia that we had at the height of the cold war. that gave us crisis management tools. it gave us strategic stability. this is not a favor to anyone. this is a mutual existential
interest. frankly, i view the statement made by mike pompeo after the meeting with foreign minister to be an encouraging one if that leads to a resumption of those kinds of strategic discussions. for example, in the cold war, we had a very effective and consistent military to military discussions to manage crises. those are dramatically reduced today. that is not good for either country. >> thank you for your time. that was the former energy secretary. this is bloomberg. ♪
was home to michael jackson and others, has lost some of its luster since donald trump became president. our real estate reporter is here to discuss this. have people who live in trump tower who have sold their condos. people whobeen nine sold their condos in trump tower. eight of them came in at a lost. some had losses exceeding 20%. on the commercial side, you have 42,000 vacant square feet. despite rents being advertised at well below the local average. due tomuch of this is being associated with president trump? tiffany's had a lot of trouble. in andh is just getting
out of the building? >> that is part of it. when we spoke with people who used to live in trump tower, they said one reason why they sold is because of security. it is a real hassle to get into the building particularly if you are an owner. you have to go through concrete barriers and security. or you livelderly out of town, there is a question of whether it is worth the hassle. >> there was speculation when donald trump ran for president that it was going to enhance the trump name. what about other buildings with the trump name? are they hurting, as well? the hotel and washington, d.c. is doing wonderfully. it has become a magnet for republican politicians and lobbyists. the issue with the trump rand generally is that he is very divisive.
you have people who love them and hate him. in new york city where he got less than 10% of the vote, there are a lot of buildings with his name on them and they have since voted to remove his name. needs 40% of the country to buy in trump tower. thank you so much. the balance of power newsletter. latest on global politics in your inbox every single day. coming up, we will continue to follow markets. stocks have rebounded today. over 1% across the board. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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rosenstein says he wants admire comey but now he is disappointed in him and calls him a partisan pundit. rosenstein said his role in firing plumbing wasn't aimed at interfering with the investigation into russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. saudi arabia says drones attacked to pumping stations owned by aramco. the stations are linked to a giant pipeline transporting oil in the eastern sector of the country to the western coast. earlier, rebels from yemen said they used drones to attack the saudis. movey is considering a that easing tensions with the united states. bloomberg has learned that the erdogan government may delay the purchase of a missile-defense system into 2020. the u.s. is unhappy because the system was designed to shoot down american and allied aircraft. the delay could give the two countries time to work out that dispute.