tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 24, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
paul: welcome to daybreak australia. sophie: we are counting down to asia's major market open. paul: here other top stories we are covering for the next hour. u.s. stocks edge away from record levels as businesses way the cost effective stimulus against concerns about the global economy. more dark clouds are building while crisis era alarm bells are
now ringing. messages, brent closed down but wti rose almost 1% in new york. later, which u.s. technology is trying to lead and which doesn't? we look at which tech can be key to the u.s.-china trade war. shery: let's get a quick check of how markets closed on monday in the u.s.. the s&p 500 down .2%. intact leading those gains but health care and energy weighing on the index. the dow unchanged, the nasdaq down .3%. investors very much focused on all the uncertainty coming out of what we can expect from the xi as president trump and
meet next week. there are expectations of a more dovish central bank. until we see set does she some of those big events unfold, there could be some range bound movement in the next few days. u.s. futures at the moment unchanged. let's see how we are setting up for trade in asia. asian: going into the tuesday session we have gold trading around 1420, the u.s. dollar at a three-month low with on sanctions being placed the supreme leader. china remains in a bull market. this morning kiwi stocks are under pressure ahead of trade data for may. we will get trade figures from hong kong and the boj april meeting minutes. paul: let's get the first word news from new york.
>> another u.s. factory gauge monitored by the fed weakened adding to signs amid the escalating trade war. falling to a three year low as more companies saw business conditions worsen. the fourth straight monthly decline and the six-month outlook indicates further deterioration in the economy. an appeal against president trump's tariffs have failed to earn a hearing at the supreme court. says his useroup of section 32 22 justified tariffs on national security grounds is so broad that it violates the constitution. steel tariff a 25% along with the 10% duty on aluminum imports in march last year. u.k. opposition leader jeremy corbyn has again indicated he is warming to the idea of a second referendum on brexit.
he spoke as the conservative party moves to elect a new leader and prime minister. he said when sam made that choice, the tory should have the confidence to put brexit back to thecond vote ahead of schedule divorce date on october 31. new york city council is considering a law that would bailout cabdrivers who say they competition.om yellow cap owner operator say their businesses have been broken by policies that encourage and inflation market for taxing medallions that was shattered by the unregulated growth of the ride-hailing industry. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: president trump is wrapping up pressure on iran, targeting supremely are
ayatollah khomeini with new sanctions. he said the ayatollah is responsible for iran's hostile conduct. a today's action follows series of aggressive behaviors by the iranian regime in recent weeks, including shooting down u.s. drones. one,ss everyone saw that and many other things aside from the individual drone. you saw the tankers and we know of other things that were done also which were not appropriate. discuss with our congress editor. we know that 80% of the iranian economy is already sanction, so have big of an impact will this be? >> it is primarily symbolic, as you say. there are not many bullets u.s. can fire in these sanctions game with rent. they're trying to keep up the --
with iran. gesture,e a symbolic in addition to the ayatollah they are members of the military command who are put under sanctions, it will limit them dealing -- moving money around outside of iran, but in terms of the iranian economy, it's not going to be a big impact. aroundn terms of getting to the negotiating table, is it going to help or is he going to be counterproductive? one specialist said it could harden iran's position. .he sanctions will be annoying aroundnlikely to bring to the negotiating table when
previous sanctions have crippled countries economy have not done so. iran's representative at the u.n. said today that his country has no interest in one on one negotiations with the u.s. and would prefer that there is some negotiationsnal and all the other countries in the region as well as europe. take a hitaw oil earlier in the session after the president question in a tweet by the u.s. was protecting shipping in the strait of hormuz. what was that about? a recurring theme for the president. ,e has question other alliances european countries and japan and why they're not pay more for their defense. the state department came out later and said they want to create what they call a sentinel program that would have other ships from other nations
equipped with cameras to monitor tankers and to document actions by the iranians in the strait of hormuz. toit's not quite a return the tanker wars of the 1980's, nor is it a complete withdrawal of the u.s. or pullback by the u.s. in that region. they want to get more eyes on iran and what they are doing as well as what is going on with the tanker traffic. joe, thanks for joining us. still to come, more on the u.s. sanctions and what iran's endgame might be. will speak to the council on foreign relations senior fellow. and why the bond market might have it wrong. this is bloomberg. ♪
open, another cool winter morning here on tuesday. futures pointing slightly weaker after a pretty quiet day in terms of volume and price volatility in the u.s. shery: you are watching "daybreak: australia." u.s. stocks traded at a record slowingncerns over global economy. su keenan is here with me for more on the story. not surprising investors were deciding where to go and fluctuating between gains and losses throughout the session. powell on tuesday, the g20 later in the week, opec meetings, some might be waiting to see which way to go. let's go into the market snapshot. the dollar continuing its bearish trend. you noted the bonds -- the treasury yield dropped to almost
$58 a barrel. not much movement in futures. let's go into some of the big movers. e*trade and ameritrade down in a big way. you can blame that on bernie sanders. he's got a great idea, he believes, to tax every bond and stock trade and use that money to give free college and forgive college debt for most americans. his followers loved it, wall street hated it. more to come on that front. down, but those company stocks were down ahead of the merger. , as bad weather in the farm belt could help sales big time. the day moving average would
normally be a bearish tail for the s&p 500, but some chart it's not yetsaying at a warning sign, but it is worth noting small caps are the broadest measure of the market in terms of movement. paul: plenty of interesting moves in commodities. to oil trade is reacting those new sanctions on iran privet let's start with gold which is up at the moment. >> we are also seeing a huge gold rush of investors into the most popular etf's. the biggest inflow on record, one point $6 billion in investor funds moving in. highestd posts its close in nearly six years. price action the for gold, it has really come up. the five-day chart for gold has come up in a big way and oil
between the way it traded in the u.s. and brent crude which moved lower, getting conflicting signals on what's going on in the middle east. some are not sure how much supply will be taken off market. and after hours, at least one big mover. su: we can look at how the stock is moving after hours. a webcast on tuesday on the actual skin treatment and there is a lot of excitement there. paul: su, thanks very much for that. let's bring in our first guest of the morning, senior portfolio manager with wells fargo asset management. thanks for joining us. we got stocks near records, notwithstanding today's rather flat performance. is it time to take a few profits now?
>> i think there's a little more room to go in the markets. we could have some slowdowns in a little bit of a pullback, but i do think it will end up in positive territory. we have made a tremendous amount of gains for the first part of the year so a pullback would not surprise me, but i do think the economy is in pretty good shape, despite what the bond market wants to signal. and we will end up with gains for the year. paul: we've had some comments from robert kaplan with the fed. a general push back to the rocks president trump has been making about the fed recently, but in terms of the market being balanced or unbalanced, where do you see things at the moment? >> there are areas of the market where i still see opportunities and in their areas that appear overpriced. i think it is opportunistic or active managers who were just out there selecting companies that are priced at the right
levels. that's what we're trying to do, trying to find those areas of the market that appear attractive. shery: what sort of economic activity will we see here in the u.s., especially with mna's? >> it's picked up over 50% this year from last year and i think we will see that continue. that has been fueled by low interest rates and tax reform but also by repatriation. were starting to see private equity do that. large acquisitions are hurrying -- occurring for big cap companies acquiring other large-cap companies. we saw another merger today that i think will continue throughout the year as well. >> what about small caps? the underperformance today caught our eye. this chart showing they have been underperforming the s&p 500 for quite some time. does it give you a signal of
where the broader markets could go? >> that's a really good point. new get the longer-term chart, we see the gap between small and large cap is pretty wide. it is as wide as it has been since 2016. typically when it gets this wide, is over 10% discount relative to the s&p 500 right now. that generally says that the ratio will start to come together. i believe that small caps will start to outperform. it has been natural for investors to go toward a little bit larger cap as they seek stability, but as they gain a little more confidence in where growth and economic activity are, then you will start to see more investors go to that smaller cap spot. of thene of the stories
moment as su keenan was mentioning earlier is gold. we've seen some pretty big moves up there. is that something you're looking at in terms of etf's? >> we do have some gold exposure. it's not a huge part of our portfolio. we look for companies that are attractive from a fundamental standpoint. we do have some exposure there. i do think that gold prices obviously are at near record highs right now, and there is good reason for it, given where the dollar has been and where the global risks are in the marketplace. there is still some opportunity for gold here but it is not an area that we are adding a lot of new money two. paul: in terms of risk, there are some interesting dynamics around the oil market at the moment. if we look at this chart on the bloomberg, you can see hedge funds are getting interested in a rebound in the oil price. it's a very clouded picture
right now. where do you see the oil price heading from here? >> oil appears to be fairly attractive based on where the price of oil is and the longer-term demand. but it is very dependent on the macro global growth. that has been called into question, given the trade negotiations going on with china. what you have is the balance going on between what's going on beh iran and if there will more sanctions. that has driven up the energy prices in the short term, but issuesre still long-term in that we don't have a deal on the table yet. we are slightly positive on energy and given where demand has been. overall demand globally has stayed relatively strong. price where it is at now, there are still attractive
equities at these levels. shery: the opec meeting and the g20 coming up, will it be range bound until those two big events take place? >> suddenly that will continue to create volatility. that meeting hopefully will take place. our base case is that the talks will continue, that they will end on fairly friendly terms. there is likely not to be a deal but that the talks will continue. we will see what will happen from there. i think a surprise to the market would be if the trade talks in badly. that would be a negative and a surprise to the market. shery: thank you so much for joining us today. portfolio manager with wells fargo management. get a roundup of all the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak.
>> this is bloomberg technology global link. emily chang is in san francisco. let's look at the top global tech stories of the day. local partners are teaming up to invest almost a billion dollars in developing a new high-tech city in toronto. the plan will include a new canadian headquarters for google and feature a network on lake ontario with heated bike lanes and a green power grid. news of a big tech tie up and over $4 billion. it will result in a group with
almost $20 billion of annual revenue and more than 250,000 employees. the offer is a 22% premium and will enable it to expand its software engineer network. k pops mega brand band is now the start of its own smartphone game. netmarble has an vale the game that lets players build and manage the ban from auditions all the way through to stardom. it's the first major mobile going to focus exclusively on a kapok group that contains previously unpublished content and chats with its members. those are the top global tech stories we are watching. shery: president trump's escalating trade war is shining madeht on which u.s. technology china still needs. you were trying to get the
answer but who needs the other more, or who has more to lose here. tell us a little bit about your analysis. storylooked through this of how interconnected things were. there are things that china absolutely cannot live without, things like microprocessors from flipside, somehe things that are household names in the u.s., arguably hundreds of millions of people in china are getting along perfectly well without. emily: why has china become so dependent on u.s. chips rather than other technology? ian: the simple answer is, chips our heart. .- chips are hard making tens of millions of those
is really difficult. china has developed some capabilities but nothing compared to what the u.s. is capable of. shery: so chips are needed, but what about the technology that you characterize as take it or leave it? you havehat category things like the iphone, it still sells in large volume, but it is losing market share. chinese consumers are deciding they can do quite well on an android system made by local manufacturers. on the flipside of that, you have google, the provider of it is on most chinese phones. all the don't need things you see as being essential for android here in the u.s.. emily: what other u.s. technology does china not need at all? facebook and twitter have been
locked out of the country for more than a decade. ian: you are absolutely right. millions hundreds of who have never bought anything on amazon. for all its dominance around the world and all its growth, it's really just not a presence in china unless you count dependence on chinese manufacturing. all the services that we see in the u.s. that run on amazon web services, it's just not happening here -- it's just not happening in china. ian king in san francisco, thanks for joining us. technologybloomberg at 7:00 a.m. in sydney, 5:00 a.m. in hong kong and five.pm in new york. still to come, from trade tensions to iran, we look at the
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paul: 8:30 a.m. in sydney. currencies weaker by about .5%. i'm paul allen in sydney. you are watching "daybreak: australia." let's get the first word news. >> the trump administration has put sanctions on the supreme leader of iran, further raising the pressure on the islamic republic. the president said the penalties are designed to deny ayatollah khomeini access to financial resources. washington is prompting action against a foreign minister.
the u.s. indicated similar financial sanctions against him would come later this week. secretary of state mike pompeo is in the middle east to rally a coalition of support against iran. the u.s. wants support for better safeguards for commercial shipping passing through the strait of hormuz. washington accuses tehran of attacking oil tankers, a charge rn denies. the huawei ceo, the legal team says that case has become politicized and that she would not have been charged in .anada
for her alleged crime of fraud and lying about dealings with iran. she is under house arrest in vancouver. the extradition case is scheduled to begin in january. i'll come faces another fine a year after having to pay more than a billion dollars to rival suppliers to apple. sources tell us brussels may oppose the finest soon as next month and what would be the final antitrust penalty from the competition commissioner. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: for what to watch on markets is morning, let's turn to sophie in kuala lumpur. sophie: for stocks to watch in sydney this morning, a report that is mulling its sale of assets in new zealand as part of his tragedy -- strategy to
invest in these cyber network in australia. it is set to spend 1.5 billion ringgit to do so. altura lot on your 12% stake which the company says will boost its material business. paul: thanks very much, sophie. let's get more and what we should be watching his trading gets underway in asia. garfield, stocks really losing momentum but bonds just keep rolling on. what does that say about the potential for the g20 meeting to turn things around? >> we've got a lot of trump clouds on the horizon, the iran sanctions, the supreme court overnight refusing to hear an appeal against the steel tariffs, just confirming that trump has the power to do what
he wants. fromhen the huawei urgings congress, it's a reminder that the g20 might not bring the sort of magic potion that stocks seem to have been hoping for. we have a chart we can show you on the bloomberg that's also in the library, that looks at the in late 2018, when the stock market peaked and bond yields also sort of peaked, down came stocks and bond yields. bond yields just kept going. that divergence raises a concern that at some stage they have to come back together. of thelook at some underlying indicators of demand, you might think the most likely scenario is for stocks to come back down, not bond yields that come back up.
shery: what about the stocks in china? they are back in a bull market. we still have the g20 to get through. >> the chinese market has been a surprise success story this year after having an awful 2018. it rallied pretty much from the starting gun in 2019, even as how its lingered about resolvable the trade disputes were, was going on with the impact from the deleveraging campaign, and as trump ramped up tariffs and we went back toward a trade war, stocks came off. resilience even then because of expectations that china could stimulate its way out of trouble. even as they've been bouncing back this month, concerns are bubbling beneath the surface in china's money markets. if you look at the chart we have there was a real
crunch in lending in particular to businesses. meanwhile, the pboc flooded the markets with liquidity and that sent interbank rates down to the lowest they've been since 2009. the problem there is precisely that the pboc actions are helping the banks but they are not getting out to the wider economy. if they cannot resolve that transmission problem, and they've been having this sort of transmission problem for much of this year, that casts doubt on the ability of stimulus to really work. that casts doubt on just how on china stocks can stay on an upward path. garfield reynolds, thanks for joining us. shery: trade will top the agenda
in india on tuesday. new delhi raise duties to a raft of goods in response to washington. newguest is here with us in york. great to have you here. we are talking about these tariffs on 28 american goods. because the u.s. went ahead and took away the trade privileges of the developing economy. where did the whole indo pacific strategy go? >> trade disputes are top of mind. india comes back with retaliatory action. let's look at it in a slightly larger context. an trump wantss india to be a partner in the securityfic region for
, and as a counterbalance to china. hand, u.s. wants to reduce its trade deficit. india wants to de-escalate the trade tensions, which is why this visit is critical. at a more comprehensive relationship with the united states. and remember president trump is meeting with the prime minister at the g20 meeting later this week. shery: we have china growing its influence in the region, so how crucial is the relationship for the prime minister? >> extremely important. all indicators we have seen so far show the indian economy is slowing in the prime minister has just kicked off the second inning. he needs capital investment to
reboot the economy. situation, india cannot afford to antagonize the united states on trade issues. he will be leaning on president trump to make sure this goes away and relations are normalized. explore the domestic front a little bit more. anda's r.b.i. will lose outspoken central banker. what will that mean for the rbis autonomy? he was the one who controversially in october spoke about central bank independence and interference by the government that led to a war of words with officials in the finance ministry and the media. much water has flowed under the bridge since then, but just look
at the facts. an end ining to january 2020 anyway. it comes us a surprise, but not a shock. the governor left recently, and resolutions were made to the monetary policy committee. voice wille hawkish voices.number of dovish it's exactly what india needs. perhaps this is what the doctor ordered. thanks very much for joining us premade coming up next, more on heightened
paul: i'm paul allen in sydney. shery: i'm shery ahn in new york. you're watching "daybreak: australia." to discuss the implications is the director of the program on energy security at the council on foreign relations. great to have you with us. we have the downing of the u.s. drone and the apparent attacks on those oil tankers recently. how smart has the u.s. response been so far? job,e u.s. has done a good they targeted the actual infrastructure the revolutionary guard was using to pick those targets. they were very specific targets
that had significant meaning in the oil world. i think that was a good selection and i think the sanctions against the ruling elite in iran are more symbolic. they probably don't hide their money in european banks the way some other countries leaders do. in the end, i think the administration has showed some restraint and the iranian goal which was to use the attacks to drum up support from china or japan or companies that are dependent on oil flows from the middle east, their actions have helped the trump administration ahead of the g20 meeting come in with some talking points about sharing the diplomacy and maybe even the military guarding the sea lanes. been: we know there have deep divisions between the u.s. and its allies. will the latest developments
push them closer together or further apart on iran? amy: i think you have some diplomatic statements that you would expect, but i think behind the scenes the iranian actions alliessolutely brought and even non-allies together with united states on this issue . you got countries all through asia that cannot afford to see a giant escalation in the price of oil. i know the u.s. is hoping to elicit some cooperation from russia. unclear if that will be successful or not. i think the instability that was created, the uncertainty about these targets and the sea lanes and so forth is something that concerns more china than the united states because china's oil supply would be the most disruptive. the u.s. has its own rising oil and gas production.
ofl: we've seen a couple tweets from president trump today suggesting that maybe other countries would like to shoulder some of the cost of potential military escorts for ships going through the straight of hormuz. what does the future shipping look like in that area of troubled waters? amy: i think that the president again is spot on. great idea where we are talking about oil that's going to asia and europe and those countries can participate in escorting tankers. the great news about that is that it de-escalate's from the emotional center of this being a , and if chinalict and other international parties participate, believe that it boxes the iranians into taking a more cooperative stance. it's not like a red wants to have a military conflict -- like iran once to have a military
conflict with asian or european powers. think naturalizing the situation is the right move. bel: is there any reason to concerned about international air travel in that area? in 1988, the u.s. down and iranian airbus. things can go horribly wrong when you start packing military hardware into a tight area like that. amy: several airlines have started diverting their flights around to bypass the area of conflict around the straight of hormuz. dubai is a regional transit center. you've got flights that transit in doha. you have a lot of international carriers and also regional carriers that have voiced increased concerns. we always think about the middle
east is an area that is anortant for oil but it is important geographic space in flights international in many directions. important to india and travelers in southeast asia to be able to use these middle east air routes. shery: he's apply more sanctions on iran and sending more iteris staff to the middle east. what sort of signals are we getting from the administration? the united states is in a complicated situation. of course as a global power, we take a lot of responsibility and burden of protecting the sea lanes, and international travel is important, we all learned that after september 11, that there needs to be a global coalition, a global establishment, even to be able to do the simple things of ship
free internationally and ship people to and fro for business and tourism. a lot is at stake, actually. i really do think that the president is correct, not so much that the u.s. doesn't care, but -- because of course we want to have a growing global economy and a strong economy. the president has made that clear in some of his previous statements about opec and oil prices. not doingbout opec something to harm global economic growth. in addition to that, there is this role, but when you consider the importance of the flows through the strait of hormuz to the asian powers and also to europe, i think it is appropriate to ask other militaries to come and take part in patrolling the sea lanes. i think in doing that, we would
to be thrown off the board, the ceo was reappointed at the annual meeting along with nine other nominees proposed by the company. he had been under fire following an information leak and recent losses. last week number announced changes and a stop by that word $1.4 billion. paul: a consortium is said to be in talks to acquire a majority stake in the russian goal minor backed by blackrock. retell them a may team up with partners to make a joint offer. financial details are unclear but sources say a transaction could be valued at $1 billion u.s. they operate mainly in siberia and has doubled upward since 2016. shery: one way to find out where the money is going is to watch etf's. a pair is making moves this week, starting with china.
leading up to the g20. marketsus is our reporter. that's very interesting bullish banks have been rising. it means the cost of protection against a 10% loss has been going down. it is now at the lowest level since late november-early december. that's exactly where the previous g20 meeting in buenos aires took place. i'll remind you that's when the presidents of china and the united states agreed to a temporary truce. it is interesting to see what will happen from now on. inl: traders bet on games the etf in december. how did they fare with the swings in the etf when trade talks broke down later on in the year? >> it's interesting that at some
point earlier this month, it was at the lowest point relative to the s&p ever. here was even more tension , it rose 20% at some point. then it was that -- there was a 13% decline and is now up 5.5% from the main low. thenalysts are worried that advance may come a little too far, too fast. shery: why is it particularly important for u.s. options traders? it's the most liquid etf and the one that investors can go in and out very quickly to get bullish and bearish bets on the direction of the etf. the two etf's are the ones
investors go to here in the united states. paul: thanks for joining us. bullish bets for emerging markets are also rising on dovish central banks. let's get to sophie in kuala lumpur. what is the lay of the land? sophie: investors have been piling in the etf's and emerging funds are not being left out in the cold, shares rising for the first time in seven weeks on the dovish pivot weeks seen among central banks. inflows of nearly $12 billion helping drive the appetite. switching up the board, we can see it was bond funds that led the way with higher-yielding assets looking more attractive on hints of fed easing. equity etf saw outflows last week, but that was mostly caused fund, find, the vanguard
the biggest stock fund of all. this is happening as the countdown to the g20 in the backdrop around the fed hinting at easing. we will wait to see what jay powell has to say this week as well. shery: sophie, thank you so much for that. tomorrow, the australian prime minister will be here in a bloomberg office delivering a speech ahead of the g20 in osaka later this week. we will bring you highlights on bloomberg television. terminal subscribers can watch it on live . paul: that's almost it for "daybreak: australia." trading in new zealand is underway, not a great deal of action there at the moment, just off by a few points. futures in sydney pointing .2%.r by about that is it from "daybreak: australia."
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