tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg August 8, 2019 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
watering $5 billion. the implications of unrest, weeks of protest and hong kong. the effect on the city's top names. shery: we are seeing pictures being pressured down half a percent on that news that the white house is halting any licenses for businesses to work .ith hallway --huawei this after a stellar performance . green.ector was in the the s&p 500 was able to erase this week's loss. nasdaq two and a quarter percent. the energy sector leading those rises, gaining ground with news that saudi arabia was in touch orbital -- in and
order to slow the decline. lily catching the eye of investors. let's see how we are shaping up in asia. pointing to a mixed open. futures down almost .5%, but in sydney, seeing a little bit of positivity. that sentiment is stronger-than-expected and it was short-lived. bloomberg reporting that the u.s. is planning to publish that final list in chinese imports. they plan to hit with tariffs this week or early next. reporting the white house is holding off the decision on licenses for companies to restart business with hallway --huawei. inare seeing suppliers fall
extended trading after that report. they fell as much as 2.2% earlier. switching boards for the economic calendar, we have the producer price. lastcting that it fell 1% month, signaling a potentially emergent and watching that consumer price inflation. also watching for japan's second-quarter gdp growth. expansionlowed quarter on quarter. paul: thank you very much. check on the first word news with the customers. there are increasing warnings of a downturn in the leading economies. a new survey suggests the possibility of session has risen
to 35%. that is up from 20% at the end of last year, the highest among developed nations and matched only by japan. trump is taking fresh aim at the u.s. currency, living a step closer to scrapping white house support for a stronger dollar. he is not thrilled by the currency strength and attacked the fed for making life hard for corporate america to compete. intervene toht weaken the dollar. has dubbeddepartment -- meeting protesters in hong kong. leaking pictures and the names of the diplomats children go ayond protest and is not how responsible nation should behave.
as the philippines cut its benchmark by a quarter of a percentage point. they reduced overnight borrowing rates. that was predicted by almost all economists surveyed by bloomberg. the governor says there is room for further easing. u.k. prime minister is calling on the european union leaders to show some common sense and rewrite the brexit divorce deal. he says there is still plenty of time for the withdrawal agreement to be changed. he said he would take them out with or without a deal at the end of october. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i'm jessica summers and this is bloomberg. paul: let's get back to the top story. the white house has said to be holding off. this latest coming as the administration works on a list of imports. let's get over to washington now and our reporter, greg sullivan. describe this? this? -- the chinese tech giant requiring licenses to work with u.s. companies after it was like listed in may of a security concerns. already, this is coming at a
time of heightened trade tensions between the countries. beijing announced that they were halting agricultural purchases. last week we had president trump's threat to impose this latest round of tariffs. this move is likely to increase tensions and we know that the situation iswei important. shery: i we had talked to see ?hose tariffs ? >> the office has been working in overdrive to try to finish the list. it will be a revised list of the one that they released in may,
including items such as laptops, cell phones, children's toys and clothing. this latest round, the consumer is likely to feel the pinch more than previous rounds. businesses that previously will not be as lucky this time. this will cover all chinese imports into the u.s. shery: they must not be too happy. thatey have been outspoken tariffs are a tax on american this is. furthermore, this has increased uncertainty.
there is the question of what will be on the list when they are finally released this week or early next week. there is a question of timing. it could be the difference between paying the tariffs or not. a lot of uncertainty facing businesses. before the white house 500unced that news, the s&p posted its biggest advance. at least one strategist says it looks like the worst of the volatility is behind us. su keenan the latest. the white house is holding off on those licenses. we are seeing this pressure on u.s. futures. looks like the volatility
is coming back. what you will see is the dollar declined the treasury gain to support prices. a big area of strength. movers, thethe big chipmaker, part of the reason .hat you saw tank gaining they come out with a new chip as a game changer. kraft heinz down to an investor low. googler rising in a big way as lyft celebrated a good conference call. let's look at the big issue, which is the s&p. notice the moving day average
has held the support. it has been difficult to get above the moving average. a lot of debate on where we go further in light of this latest tit-for-tat from the white house. we also saw a big change in oil futures. steps to take some stabilize the markets. what is the latest there? time thats the first we have seen oil rise in the past week. take a look at the big picture. saudi arabia is knowing that it and bring its export down starting at the beginning of next month, one trader said they will do what needs to be done. the largest exporter of oil. prices saw was oil
to clean up the balance sheet. is the ceo -- joining us now is the ceo. the capital is raise. shares risk had a new issue. reasons hundred $50 billion. i you pleased with how that proceeded? pleased -- are you pleased with how that proceeded? truly pleased. we have come out with announcements, a new strategy and we had strong support from shareholders. plan to sell the life insurance. that fell through when it was blocked. there was a plan to try again. is there a plan c? >> as a ceo, we always have
backup plans, but we feel have the that we execution and we are providing more cash to shareholders, so we feel confident about the deal. shery: we have breaking news. president trump has named an acting intelligence director. president trump now josie -- naming joseph to be acting intelligence director. we have seen the department facing some changes with the deputy director also leaving her position. we are just hearing from president trump that joseph mcguire is going to step up as acting intelligence director. he retired from the u.s. navy, but he will be stepping up as
the acting director for intelligence. in the meantime, let me turn back to you. we continue to see some challenges for your company at the moment. seeing you becoming more integrated. wouldn't this come with more risk at a time where other big banks are warning about some challenges when you become a more integrated institution? that advice is coming affordable. it is a societal need. we see all the large competitors exiting, underlying the challenge and disruption of the industry, but we see it as a huge opportunity. business to be client lead and we aim to take
leadership in both management and build a new model for this country. shery: do you worry about conflict of interest and poor practices that have plagued the industry? >> as i said, the industry is going through a lot of transformation. day fory was a historic our company because we tried to draw a line in the sand and put the legacy behind us, pivoting towards a future model. if i look as a newcomer to australia and the financial service landscape, i think that him as a come -- moving toa company client remediation. we are looking optimistically at
the future. paul: one of the hangovers is the share price that took a real beating. i concerned that it is making amp a target? are you doing anything to defend against that? >> it is not satisfactory. i am here to build a sustainable business for the long-term. strategy, good execution and support for shareholders is the best solution. paul: you have a plan to fix the business and move the company forward. expect anvestors dividend again? a challengings year, so we are not paying a dividend for half. restructuring, but we have two
assets that are growing well. capital and our bank. as we get the proceeds from the deal next year, we will resume a more narrow -- more normal shareholder policy. shery: what about investor outflows? when do you expect to extend those? >> my experience has been reputation antitrust can be lost very quickly and it takes time to recover. the best way to do that is to ourour services and regain clients one interaction at a time. this will take two to three years to really turnaround. shery: what about the cost cutting measures that you are implementing? what are we expecting? part of building a new amp is
changing the culture of our company to be more client led. we clearly need to be a more agile organization. business, werm the need to reduce the cost basis and be more capital efficient. .s we recycle capital paul: it is unfortunate timing and many ways. you are facing this low yield environment. what is your plan for dealing with that? >> it is something that i have experienced. for some countries like .ustralia i would say a low yield environment plays very strongly
to our real assets business. infrastructure and real estate and with clients looking for a yield, they will want to put more money into the asset classes. i think it creates an issue for people retiring and hoping to cash their coupon. that speaks to the need of having much better advice, to be able to move the portfolios and transition. businesses.ore shery: great tabby with us. thank you for your time. you can get a roundup of the stories that you need to know to get your day going in our addition of daybreak. subscribers go to dayb on your terminal. settingsustomize your so you only get the news on the industries and asset that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
paul: this is "daybreak: asia." uber slumped after reporting a $5 billion loss in the second quarter. sales, bookings and users all missed estimates. the stock is down to its lowest levels since may. what went wrong? we were not expecting it to be this bad. lyft did not do that badly. onwhat happened is it based one metric. , thatk at bookings growth was in line with the last quarter. miss.as really a sales the reason why is they are still
very aggressive with subsidies and continue to invest in food delivery and international locations. my sense is uber is still in an investment mode. is thatheard from lyft they are focusing on margin improvement. uber it is about building the platform. i -- lyft is under pressure to improve. like uber topany tencent. they start off with gaining, adding payments and shopping. , youtime, some of them just break even. the value of the platform and user base is in the bundle that you are offering. i think they are trying to do
the same. paul: if we look at lyft, it does not have these auxiliary services. what is the better path forward? said yesterday is that they will focus on engaging with the writer is that they ey have.riders that thy they are focused on the u.s. and canada market. they are not going to expand geographically. on bettereliver engagement and the revenue -- provider will improve, but it is not as if uber is losing market share. they will also benefit like the
to the wait did we just win-ners. everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you pre-order a new samsung note. click, call or visit a store today.
>> this is "daybreak: asia." administration positing a decision for u.s. companies to resume work with huawei after china said it is halting purchases of u.s. farm produce. the president said some restrictions would be listened to, but his promise was contingent on china beating up orders from american farmers, which he complained that beijing has failed to do. goldman sachs is telling investors not to hold the breath free-trade deal. they say they are no longer expecting an agreement before the u.s. presidential election
they are lowering index targets, but it is still overweight on chinese stocks saying that growth prospects are the. simulate is ready to -- stimulate its economy. that threats are likely to be long-lasting. using the national day message to reassure the audience that singapore has experienced slowdowns before and the government will launch stimulus as necessary. the indian prime minister is promising a new era in kaczmarek, saying he is bidding the state of entrenched corruption. he addressed the nation after pakistan cut diplomatic and trade ties, saying it would take the issue to the un security council.
and italy may face a snap election after one of the leaders of the coalition government admitted it no longer has the majority in government. -- and parliament. he says he is ready to terminate the relationship and will call a vote of confidence next week. have they does not power to make such a call. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. paul: thank you very much. we have some testimony of the reserve bank of australia to the parliament economics committee just getting underway. of the committee is speaking now. for three testifying
hours. we are expecting him to take on a range of questions about the future path of the rba policy and using in-store. what measures might look like if things get to that point. you can follow all of this on your bloomberg terminal. live onalso watch it your bloomberg terminal. those are live pictures you are seeing from the economics committee. we're about half an hour away from the open markets in tokyo and sydney. let's get over to selina wang on what to watch. >> i have been watching the japanese yen strengthening with that rush against the u.s. dollar. trade tensions are resurfacing,
dampening the positive sentiment that we saw from strong wall street sessions. the white house is holding off that decision for u.s. companies to restart business with huawei. i am watching for second-quarter gdp. they are expecting expansion to slow to about 5%. forecasting signs of strength in the private and public sector spending. we are expecting fiscal stimulus and last-minute purchases from the japanese government ahead of a hike to support the third-quarter growth. externalinge on how demand plays out. paul: thank you very much. the white house is delaying a decision for u.s. companies to .esume business with huawei our china correspondent is watching all of this.
a little tit for tat. likely to respond to this decision? tom: obviously, they will not be happy. it is a major company here, one of the most valuable companies in china. it employs over 100,000 people. -- it is a tit-for-tat measure. this is the result of china not following through on pledges to buy more farm goods. the commerce secretary has had around 50 requests for the special licenses because companies do need to apply for licenses ever since the company was blacklisted back in may. he will not process them at this point. they are still pending because we are hearing that the chinese have stopped buying the farm goods. the implications are pretty
clear. i spoke with chairman a few weeks ago and he said it would divisioneir smartphone and the enterprise unit as well. wally --huawei, it is posing a challenge for u.s. companies that are reliance ,n purchases from huawei concerning semiconductors. d.c. tol be lobbying get approvals because they want to be able to sell their to --nductors and tips to huawei. -- paul: i just want to interrupt you for a moment. we had the reserve bank governor making his opening remarks to the economics committee.
sourceontinues to be the of forecast uncertainty. even so, looking ahead, there are signs that the economy may have reached the turning point. we are expecting the gdp growth outcome to strengthen after avon of disappointing numbers. this outlook is being supported, including lower interest rate, depreciation of the australian dollar, a brighter outlook and the resources sector. stabilization in the housing market. it is reasonable to expect that together, these factors will see growth. major uncertainty continues to be the trade and technology between the u.s. and china. these disputes pose a significant risk to the global
economy. not only are they disrupting trade flows, but they are also generating considerable uncertainty for many businesses around the world. this uncertainty is reading to investment plans being postponed or reconsidered. it is generating volatility in financial market and has increased prospects in many economies. this means that we have a lot riding on these this needs being resolved soon. turning now to the australian labor market, the unemployment rate is a little bit higher than what we hit six months ago. this is despite growth being stronger-than-expected. the increased demand for labor has been met with more labor supply by women and older australians. highting this, a percentage of the population is participating in the labor market than ever before.
i want to be clear that this is good news. one of the side effects is that generateving harder to wages growth. , this scenario is to reach 5% in 2021. probable that we will still have some capacity in the labor market, especially taking into account unemployment. the upward pressure over the next couple of years is likely to be modest and less than what we were expecting. the caps on wages growth across the country are another factor contributing to subdued wage outcomes. at the aggregate level, a
further pickup in wage growth is affordable and desirable. turning to inflation, the outcomes are brought in line with our expectations after low numbers in earlier quarters. 1.6%.une, inflation was periods extended to the when inflation was below the range. committed toains having inflation returned to this range by taking longer than what we earlier expected. first, the slow growth in wages and the capacity in the economy. there are initiatives to address cost-of-living pressures on household and the adjustment in the housing market has contributed to unusually low
increases. in the other direction, the drought and depreciation of the exchange rate has been pushing prices up lately. looking ahead, inflation is expected to pick up. over 2020, inflation is forecast to be under 2% and over 2021, it is expected to be above 2%. at this point, it is appropriate to turn to monetary policy. when we met with this committee in february, i indicated that i thought the probability of a cash trade increase and decrease were broadly balanced. following that hearing, the situation continued to evolve and the board reduced the rate twice to a new low of 1%. ask isle question to
what changed? the answer is the keen relation of evidence that the economy could be on a better path than the one that we look to be on. wages, prices, gdp and .nemployment some distance from running up against capacity constraints. it suggests that the day inflation was completely back within the range was not getting closer. based with this evidence, the board decided that it was appropriate to lower the cash trade. judging that a lower cash rate progressp ensure towards inflation target. in the current environment, it works through two channels. the second is for disposable
income. i acknowledge that lower interest rate do help the finances of many australian. the board has paid close attention to this issue. paysggregate level low well over two dollars in interest to the banks and other lenders. this means that lower interest handsut more money in the and at some point, it gets spent and will help the overall economy. this is how it works. earlier this week, they decided to leave the meat unchanged. after living twice in quick succession, it was appropriate to wait. as i mentioned earlier, they have been a number of development that could be
expected to support the economy over the next couple of years. determining the effect is difficult. it is possible that the combined effect will be greater than the sum of the individual part. course, it is also possible that the concerning developments and ongoing growth in household incomes could see the economy underperforming. as has been the case for some time, the labor market will provide a guide for what kind of path we are on. expect asonable to period of low interest rates in australia. this reflects what is happening here and overseas. while we might wish it was interest, if global rates are low, they are going to be low in australia as well. when the global appetite is
elevated, relative to the appetite to invest, as it is right now, interest rate in all countries are affected. if it gives us the ability to set our own interest rate, it does not insulate us from shifts given by decisions around the world. that is the reality that we face. in the central scenario that i have sketched out today, inflation will be below the target for some time to come and the unemployment rate will remain above the level. the possibility of lower interest rates will remain on the table. to eased is prepared monetary policy further if there is additional accumulation of evidence that this is needed to achieve our goals of inflation consistent with the target.
as i have discussed on other occasions, further stimulus demand growth is required to get us close to capacity. thetary policy is not country's only option. ,t can help and it is helping but there are certain downside from relying on monetary policy alone. one option is the fiscal support. done well, it can boost productivity for the future. it can improve the quality of people's lives. at the moment, there are some capacity constraints and parts of the infrastructure sector, but each should not prevent us from looking for further opportunities to meet domestic demand.
today, thest rates lowest they have ever been, this week, all government can borrow for 10 years at less than 2%, and some can borrow at less than this. another option is structural policies that support employing people. a strong dynamic business sector is the best way to create jobs and growing the overall economy. .e will all do better reformam of structural will help us in this direction. product -- productivity growth has slowed significantly. if the slowing is maintained, it will become a serious issue and we will have to make difficult adjustments. it is important that we think
about the possibilities, not just from a short-term perspective, but also from a long-term perspective. before closing, i would like to mention a couple other areas of activity. as you know, the reserve bank is the banker for the australian government. banker, ournment systems process almost all of the government payment and they receive almost all of the government's revenue. over visit years we have undertaken major investments in the systems. two weekends ago, we turned off the mainframe computer on which we had been running these important systems for the government for many years. our new technology will help us to continue providing a high level of service to the australian government and its agencies. we are working with some of these agencies on innovative payment solutions. they are already using our fast
payment options to get money quickly to those people who are in immediate need. the reserve bank has continued to invest heavily in the systems that we operate in the core of paymentrbank and fast systems. other payments related work, the bank is continuing to look for ways to encourage faster development of the new payments platform, that allows all of us to move money between bank accounts in real time, 24/7. we have not been satisfied with the progress to date by the major banks, and we want to see a faster pace of innovation that benefit individuals. paul: you are listening to the opening remarks. he is giving three hours of testimony to the committee today. he expressed gentle optimism but said inflation is low and unemployment is below what he would like it to be. he said it would be appropriate
after two back-to-back cuts. he said as long as rates are low in the rest of the world, ask act low rates in australia as well. on these lot is riding disputes being resolved soon. we saw the three year yield on the aussie dollar ticking up on his remarks. i understand you have breaking news. shery: out of japan. preliminary numbers coming in, which is beating estimates on a quarter on quarter basis. we are talking about the seasonally adjusted numbers. this is a slight deceleration from the previous month -- the previous quarter where we saw a growth of 0.6%. still beating estimates. guessing the annualized adjusted quarter on quarter gdp for the second quarter coming in at 1.8% . this is beating expectations,
but a slowdown from the previous quarter. actually shows prices across the economy. we still have to get those numbers, but we saw 0.1% growth in the previous quarter. let's get our guest for immediate reaction to the second-quarter numbers to tokyo. seeing at the are moment, beating expectations, gdp. we got the year on year growth of 0.4%. better-than-expected, but still a slowdown from the previous quarter when it comes to growth in the japanese economy. how much worse could it get? the problem is a lot less about the yen. concerned,rofit is it will have an effect of about .6%.
more much less that and that the yen correlates so strongly with global interest rates. you howsury is telling much expectation on global growth is decelerating. we are talking today about gdp. third of japanese profits generated in japan. it is the rest of the world that we are worrying about. it is the rest of the world that we want to get nervous about as trump wraps up his aggressiveness towards china. shery: we continue to see the drag from the export side of things. where are we seeing the bright spots in japan? >> unfortunately, one of the bright spots is the buying of the consumption tax that comes through on october 1. the japanese government goofed.
they had a chance to push out the consumption tax hike. the rest of the world meeting up in osaka for g20. the rest of the world said we are casting -- cutting our interest rates. pan wrote on the back of that and said we are -- japan rode on the back of that and said we are going to do the opposite. the third quarter will get a certain benefit from the pre- buying. the government will be spending to offset it. paul: in terms of government spending, we heard from phil lowe, testifying and gently encouraging the government to do something on the fiscal side. could the same be said of japan? is it time for the government to step up and help out the boj? >> as far as monetary policy is concerned. that is when they are doing the
best. i think that taken all the help that they can from japan. they messed up the bond market there. they damaged the pricing mechanism and equity markets, while not managing to push prices up. is somereally needed fiscal stimulus. surely when money is slightly , you will getree 10 years of -20 basis points. that is the kind of time where you should be spending money to make money. we could see a certain about extra from supplementary budgets to be announced in the balance of the year. paul: to your point about the boj messing up the bond market, i want to jump in on the terminal. it shows how much the boj
dominates. the white bars are the ones that the boj holds. it cannot be healthy. think, it will be holding interest rates down, which is not great for people trading bonds, but it is necessary for the country as a whole. way quite frustrated by the that they are interfering the equity market. what you find is that price earnings move up and down with foreign buying. comes in, the he sells straight into it. it has driven down the price earnings. it is harder for people to make money. -- it just throws
money away even more. shery: is that part of the reason that you are seeing, despite the threats to japan come from overseas, the stay-at-home is the one that is underperforming. it, theomestic side of swing is between domestic and export related. it has gone all over the place and is proving extremely hard to forecast. one will go on with the u.s. trade discussions. you are looking at the global manufacturing pmi. it cannot be good for japan. japan has held up pretty well. the danger is that we will get some slowdown after september.
we are about 90% of the way through. weekwill be 97% done this -- this evening. consensus is cut by 1.2% since june. paul: nick smith, thank you for joining us as we see gdp for japan for the second quarter better-than-expected. it's get to selina wang for what is new on the markets. >> the futures are pointing to a mixed open, resurfacing trade tensions and latest news headline that we got on huawei. we are looking at the nikkei down, not a big reaction from that japanese gdp. we will watch and see how it turns out at the open. as you mentioned earlier, still a slowdown.
at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond.
morning, i'm paul allen in sydney. asia's major markets are about to open for trade. shery: good evening from bloomberg's global headquarters in new york. i'm shery ahn. selina: i'm selina wang in beijing. welcome to "daybreak: asia." paul: our top stories this friday. u.s. futures fall. begin gains. the u.s. positive a decision on some of its uses of fictions on huawei. trade on gold also rise. saudi arabia signals export
curbs to stabilize prices. crude had been at a seven-month low. shery: the implications of unrest. the weeks of protests unsettling business in hong kong. thessess this from some of top names of the city. the markets in japan, south korea are coming online. let's get straight to the market action. almost the nikkei is up .7%. yesterday, nikkei also gained after 4 consecutive gains and losses. we see some makeups of the gains. the adjusted quarter gdp data rows on an annualized basis, outstripping estimates of .5%. growth will hinge on how external demand and the u.s.-china trade war plays out. taking a look at korea. spi is upe the cosco
1%. it was also up the other day. we see two straight gains. pictures looking more positive. we will have to see how long that lasts after this latest trade escalation and the new headlines on huawei. looking at the asx 200, up almost .2%. the index has been in the green for the last couple of days. we will see how long it holds onto amid those trade headlines. paul: let's check in on the first word news now with jessica summers. sachs isgoldman telling investors not to hold their breath for a trade deal. in a strategy note, the bank said it no longer expects an agreement before the u.s. presidential agreement next year. trimming earnings for share forecasts for chinese companies and lowering chinese index targets, but it is
overweight on chinese stocks, saying growth prospects are decent and valuations are low. administration is said to be pausing a decision about licenses for u.s. companies to resume work with huawei. that's after china said it is halting purchases of u.s. farm produce. in june, the president said some restrictions on huawei would be loosened, what promise was contingent on china the thing up orders from american farmers, which he complains beijing has failed to do. there are increasing warnings of a downturn in the world's leading economies as the escalating trade war hurts consumer sentiment and business confidence. a new survey suggests the probability of recession in the u.s. in the next 12 months has risen to 35%. that's up from 25% at the end of last year. the highest among the developed group of 20 nations and is matched only by japan. is taking fresh aim at the u.s. currency, moving
a step closer to scrapping launch any white house reports for a strong dollar. he tweeted he is not thrilled by the strength of the currency and attacked the fed for making life hard for corporate america to compete. his comments come days after branding china a currency manipulator, while saying he may intervene to weaken the dollar. a spokeswoman at the u.s. state department has described china as a "thug us relation." by releasing personal information from a diplomat. leaking pictures and the names of the diplomat's children go beyond former protest and is not how a responsible nation should behave. asking if she was calling china a thuggish regime, she said yes. day, andws, 24 hours a at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers, this is bloomberg.
paul: thanks very much. for more on what to watch in markets, we are joined by bloomberg's asia and live editor, garfield reynolds, joining us in sydney. one of the big developments we've had, this latest twist on politicaloming the football, apparently in retaliation for china backing away from buying u.s. farm products. in terms of the impact on markets, doesn't have the same potency as the yuan breaking through seven. garfield: it did cause a share of fear at the open. & p fell.ell -- s the dollar and dollar yen declined. how has that been driven by the actual suppliers to huawei? u.s. companies like micron. then when you look at japan gdp out nice and strong.
strong exports out of china yesterday. the thought that china in general has fired off its cannon with the yuan and is seeking stabilization. there is an appetite to buy s tocks at levels a lot lower than a couple of weeks ago. shery: that would be the case for japanese stocks. we have seen cheap valuations. the gdp numbers today showing there is deceleration, but not as much as expected. what are we expecting investors to feel about the latest numbers? garfield: at the moment, it doesn't look like investors are paying that much attention. they are just sort of as you were, even japanese bond futures is surprising, because that is one area where you may have expected it to be some concern, especially that it is less likely to pursue further easing.
it is a bit of a mixed outlook for the japanese economy, because they have the sales tax coming up. paul: giving his testimony to the economics committee, we can see live pictures continuing to take questions. he's made a few points so far about how is regional -- reasonable to expect a low period of rates in australia, but trade concerns remain central. garfield: it is interesting that the immediate impact in markets has been for the aussie dollar and are the yields to rise. he was sounding optimistic. we may be at a general turning point. doubting the efficacy of monetary policy on the levels, saying you do not want to rely too much on it. he is very concerned about what is going on with the u.s. and china. he would like to see some of the heat taken out of that. he is also sounding a call to
the australian government to do and on the fiscal structural reform front in order to get the economy going. the rba can't do it alone. shery: thanks so much for that. garfield reynolds, bloomberg's asia live editor. joining us is mccord commodities and local head of asia's markets, victor. great to have you with us. we have seen goldman sachs today cutting their 12 month target for asian stocks. we are talking about the msci pacific region, x japan, the 12 month target, seven down to 500. how much will the triple cuts we have seen this week help with not only investor sentiments, but liquidity? victor: it does help. liquidity is only state of mind. liquidity can multiply a lot better if you feel better.
the job of central banks is basically to make sure the market multiplies. what we have seen over the last 10 to 15 years is a private sector increasing multiplying less and less. at the end of the day, interest rates can only do so much. what needs to happen is central banks need to inject extra liquidity themselves. the relationship is in the past private sector was a major multiplier, not the public sector. what we have seen over the last decade is the public sector was the primary drive of liquidity. i think triple cuts were good. movement in the right direction, but not enough. we need to inject extra liquidity. shery: we were hearing from jim bullard talking about how the federal reserve cannot be reacting for tit-for-tat tarif s threats every time something happened.
how much is it about fiscal policy, as well as monetary policy? is theink fiscal policy way to go forward. monetary policy has become far too toxic. monetary policy drives a lot of income. monetary policy is driving a lot of inflation. it is quite ironic. theral banks are point monetary policy to get inflation, but they are getting disinflation. monetary policy is becoming toxic. fiscal policy should be taking the lead. the problem is everybody is still obsessed debt levels, that carrying capacity with the deficits. what is it one interest rate is zero? what is the value? fiscal policy should be the way forward. i think it will be sometime over the next several years. today, the politics don't say it
is ready. yesterday is still carrying the burden. policy, terms of fiscal it is not particularly difficult to understand government's reluctance. in the case of new zealand, which in the early 1990's very nearly got into serious trouble at the hands of bond vigilantes. i'm sure these memories loom large in the minds of governments. can you see an environment changing, where the political will is there to stop it? viktor: the first thing i will say is we don't live in 1990. today, the era is so dramatically different. history doesn't really give you a great deal of guidance. that is part of the reason why there was talk about circular stagnation. it is not something that would have been discussed in the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's.
people should start thinking much less about the 1990's and going forward. number 2, i think politics will change when the population demands different ways of managing economies. we have our pricing everywhere, from yellow west in france, to blackshirts in hong kong. we have populist governments all over the place. we have policies gradually , tradeling defense links links, capital market links. those are driven by population demanding something else, something different to what happened over the last 15 or 20 years. when the populace demands it, politics will reflect it. in the next couple of years, we will get stronger, not weaker. as they do, the government will look at fiscal tools. the big question of it knighting
inflation or stagnation by using fiscal policies, the answer is no, not in today's climate. indulge myu will 1990's nostalgia, that's the last time australia had a recession. we have the reserve bank running low on ammunition, as are other central banks around the world. do you expect to see unconventional policy tools deployed soon? viktor: yes, i do. peoplely because when say central banks are running out, center makes never run out of ammunition -- central banks never run out of ammunition. in most cases, governments do not run out of ammunition. there are countries that are exposed, that have for foreign currencies, the don't have institutions of state, that have a lot of bottlenecks, but that does not apply to australia. it does not apply to most other countries in the developed universe or in china.
central banks never run out of ammunition. what happens is those tools become more toxic. every drug has a side effect. the fact that we have used monetary drugs for over three decades, those negative impacts are multiplying. central banks are reluctant to use the tools they have. if fiscal policy doesn't step in, there's a range of unorthodox policies that central banks can pursue. they do not run out of tools. shery: that seems to be why the pboc has not act did on the key rates for what the past three years. they have tweaked the rrr cuts and different lending facilities to achieve what they are trying to achieve. how does the weakening of the yuan affect the monetary policy now? viktor: it is interesting, because china is very unique. in the west, we have just used
monetary policy. we didn't use anything else. japan, they used a mixture of monetary and fiscal. china is using everything. monetary policy, rates, reserve requirements. they also use fiscal policy. mmt, pureused finance printing to shantytown redevelopments, urban redevelopment. forms part the yuan of a huge arsenal of tools that china has. those tools are defective, primarily because china doesn't have an open capital account. china does not have independent central bank. china does not have truly commercial banking sector. china doesn't really have conventional private sector. the reason they can use all of these tools which most countries cannot is they are quite unique.
when people say china can weaponize remedy, yes they can, but they don't need to. there are a variety of tools they can use. i think they would prefer to have a more stable currency than a depreciating one. they can use all of these tools. commodities and global markets head of asian strategy. thank you for joining us. we have a big guests i'll a later on. we hear from the philippines central bank governor in an exclusive interview on bloomberg markets. ahead, we break down the earnings out of hong kong ahead of the continuing weeks of protests. shery: plus, we preview the inflation numbers coming out of china. ubs investment bank chief china economist joins us. this is bloomberg.
shery: this is "daybreak: asia." i'm shery on in new york. paul: i'm paul allen in sydney. themberg has been told white house is delaying a decision on licenses for u.s. companies to resume business chinese telco huawei after beijing stopped purchases of u.s. farm goods. tom mackenzie has been watching this. more trade war back and forth. how is china likely to react to this decision? tom: it is not going to go well. it's a reminder that 2 central ingredients in the g20 truth between the presidents has essentially combo. they are not buying u.s. bonds goods. to refrain now going from issuing these licenses, having said that exactly what it would do. there's going to be an impact on huawei itself, particularly its smartphone divisive -- division. it will also be an impact on
intel, telecom, and micron, which depend on the purchases by huawei. pain on both sides and complicating the trade tensions between these sides. to goect the negotiators to washington and continue the talks. this is just another hurdle. shery: really interesting this week has been the focus on the yuan. it usually wouldn't be paid that close attention to, but sentiment has swayed so much by that reference rate. what are we seeing, in terms of china stabilizing the currency? tom: the view is that as long as trade tensions remain in the status quo position they are in now, that they don't exacerbate rapidly from here, the pboc will try to stabilize the yuan. that's the view of economists who think the focus for the pboc
and policymakers is to ensure there is no panic. stability is the key. the fixed in yesterday was the weakest one we have seen since 2008. it came in stronger than traders expected. that letter to that calm. in the market. in terms of the context, over the last month, the yuan versus the dollar is down about 2.5%. the lowest level since 2015 versus its trade partners, in terms of the basket of currencies. the weekend -- the weakness persists. you have some economists forecasting it could go down to 7.7. that is contingent on the trade really rapidly deteriorating. very much dependent on what happens with these trade talks. it makes it more complicated, in terms of china's policy
response, stimulus response. it wants to maintain stability around the yuan. -- onen't handcuff them hand behind their back, in terms of how far they go, lowering central-bank rates and central cuts. that is a fly in the ointment for the pboc. we will look at this mix again today. shery: tom mackenzie in beijing, thank you. plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
we spoke to duncan edwards. >> none of our members would have voted in favor of the u.k. leaving the eu. this is not a popular move for businesses in the u k, or u.s. businesses active in the u.k.. i think the chances of the u.k. leaving without a deal are much higher than they were. we hope an agreement can be reached in some version of the withdrawal agreement negotiated. i think it is less likely. >> what preparations are you taking at the moment? >> most large companies already made preparations. the financial services industry, they were forced to make no deal preparations in time for the march 29 deadline by the bank of england. they all did. for a lot of large companies, brexit has already happened. the problem is manufacturing businesses, having complex
supply chains across europe, making things in the u.k., and sme's are struggling. we don't have the resources for planning or changing supply chains. have done companies preparation and will be ready on october 31. shery: for both canada and the u.s., there's an opportunity in brexit to reinforce free trade with the u.k. in terms of u.k.-u.s. free trade, are you optimistic that it is a path you will go down? hugeere's clearly a increase in the intensity by the u.k. government towards relationships with both canada and the u.s. you can see that this week, 2 senior cabinet ministers are in washington. the foreign secretary and international trade secretary.
we will bring a delegation of our members to talk with her tomorrow morning. there's a huge focus on the u.k. government to embrace the wall that has come out of the white house towards a potential deal, post-brexit. we will see. it is difficult to get done. shery: while they are hearing those messages of warmth and optimism, will they send a message of tariffs and a trade were with china is not good for anybody? >> i think they will. there is no question the johnson administration comes from a free-trade decision. dialogue be continuing with the u.s. government about the desire to remove these tariffs. it does not help anybody. shery: duncan edwards, british-american business ceo. we are hearing from governor philip lowe speaking to parliament. it is possible we end up at zero lower bound.
jessica: this is "daybreak: asia." i'm jessica summers with the first word headlines. boris johnson is calling on european leaders to "show some common sense and rewrite the brexit divorce deal." with 84 days until the u.k. is scheduled to leave the eu, johnson says there's plenty of time for the agreement to be changed. he's repeatedly said he will take the country out of the block with or without a deal at the end of october. stimulateis ready to its economy in the face of weakening global demand and the u.s.-china trade war. it warrants the threats posed by uncertainty are likely to be
long-lasting. the prime minister used his message to reassure the audience that singapore experienced slowdowns before, and the government will launch stimulus as necessary. the indian prime minister is promising a new era, saying he is ridding the state of what he calls dynastic politics and entrenched corruption. he addressed the nation after pakistan cut diplomatic and trade ties, and said it would take issues to the un security council. modi added kashmir's economy offered only nepotism and terror. the philippines put its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point, resuming policy easing after economic growth and inflation slows. the overnight borrowing rate was reduced. that was predicted by almost all economists surveyed by bloomberg. the governor said there's room for further easing as weak level prospects are tempering inflation.
italy may face a snap election. of the leaderse of the coalition government admitted it no longer has the majority in parliament. late leader and deputy prime minister said he's ready to terminate the relationship with the five-star movement and will call a vote of confidence next week. news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers, this is bloomberg. shery: asian shares have been pushing higher. they are in the green. up more thanospi 1%. australia and new zealand in the
green. that is slowing positive sentiment from a strong session on wall street, which is outweighing the resurfacing of trade tensions. this is after bloomberg reported the u.s. is holding off on a decision about licenses for u.s. companies to restart business with huawei. switching boards for some stocks to watch. shinsei bank plunging the most in three years on reports that jc flowers is selling most of lenders. to the other investors will be offloading 43.5 million shares in a secondary offering in japan and abroad. that is down significantly. switching boards again to other stocks we are watching. biking moving up after an analyst upgrade, raising the target. it is trading at about ¥13,625. banking cost cuts and is pushing sales in the u.s. and china to
help the company meet its medium-term profit margin. softbank is up about .6%. telecom unit shares have clawed back past that. this comes after the company earlier reported earnings that the first quarter earnings were in line with estimates. seido, up more than 7%. they beat expectations with analysts citing brand power improvement, and improving outlook against intensifying competition. a lot to watch. ministerdian prime narendra modi is promising a new era in kashmir after revoking its autonomy. he has addressed the nation thursday after pakistan cut diplomatic and trade ties over the move. is here.ing editor
this is coming after seven decades of autonomy. the prime minister is calling it a domestic internal affair. >> that's right. he was making the case that this would be great for kashmiris. he painted the state as one run by dynamic rulers. they will now be able to have more economic activities, more government jobs, more employment. minorities will have more rights. they will be able to vote in state elections. modi is making this case while cashmere is under curfew. a lot of leaders are locked up, phone and internet was cut. it was railroaded without much discussion or debate. he is painting it as optimistic, but it is a very tense situation. the curfew, nobody knows when that will be lifted.
paul: it is worth remembering that india and pakistan fought three wars over that particular region. how dangerous is the situation looking? flashpoint inen a india and pakistan relations for years. both countries have nuclear weapons, as we know. pakistan's prime minister, while modi was speaking, warned of the genocide once that curfew was lifts. they did not have a say in this. it will be interesting to see how they hit the streets. cashmere has been a place where cross-border terrorism and military groups are fermenting. there's definitely the risk of more violence to come in this part of the world. pakistan has already exhausted a lot of diplomatic options. the military is considering other options. andgs are looking tense
could get more dangerous in the days and weeks ahead. paul: thank you very much for joining us, addressing the situation in kashmir. in hong kong, growing uncertainty from protests to global trade tension is taking its toll on many of the city's western blue chips. swire and china mobile are the latest. our chief north asia correspondent has been watching this story. from theof headwinds trade war to the protests in hong kong. china mobile, a will get them out of the way. they are not related to the protests. their earnings were hit. the worst interim results in some 17 years. they haven't had this big a drop since 2002. the operating environment has become more complex and full of uncertainty.
all of this really has to do with the cost associated with the upgrade to 5g. that is china mobile declining to about $8 billion in the months to june. let's get to some of the other blue chips that are directly tied to not only the trade war, nine, enteringst 10 weeks of unrest. swire pacific, one of the biggest and oldest trading houses in hong kong, it says net to just about one billion u.s. dollars in the six months to june. has key businesses in retailing, hotels, and airlines. guess what has been affected most by the trouble of the streets? retail, hotel, and airlines. they say they are fundamentally confident in hong kong, however, we see results down 41% in the
first half. swire properties saying global trade uncertainty is the adverse effect of the yuan weakness on spending by tourists affecting retail spending in hong kong. protests have had some effect on retail sales. particularly, what you are seeing here. it is kind of in the epicenter of the protests. if it continues, swire pacific is going to move and be affected. it will not be adversely are positively affected, but you can get the drift. first have profit at 2.2 billion hong kong dollars. they are primarily a port company. in hong kong, weak demand has been further weakened by travel advisories. exports,slowdown, falling retail sales, stock market jitters, and the threat to employment. they through in everything except the kitchen sink warning
that trouble is ahead. this is also the company that runs the harbor city and that protesters had threatened to storm. they put up a sign saying not to come in unless there was an actual criminal activity happening. the protesters called off a rally at harvard square -- harbor city. interesting times. shery: what are we expecting, in terms of protests? >> if you're traveling in and out of hong kong, get ready for more unrest. they are calling for peaceful demonstrations and rallies at the airport. the main airport in hong kong. that can be today, tomorrow, to the weekend. be prepared for some sort of delays. this comes after we got the meeting up in shenzhen, where officersfficials and really are hardline.
we are from a pro-establishment hong kong lawmaker saying those chinese leaders spent the whole morning stating the central government stands is there is no room for compromise. in particular, on an independent inquiry being formed until the violence has ended. it is an interesting time. i don't have time to get into the most recent spat between china and the u.s., where a state department official in washington was quoted as saying the chinese have been employing thuggish tactics on this protest that they have filed against a honglar official in th kong meeting with joshua want and other protest leaders. china is obviously not very happy about that, calling it a continued example of the black hand from the u.s. stirring up
trouble. i will talk about more in the next hour. paul: thanks very much for joining us. i want to get you back to the reserve bank of australia governor. he is 40 minutes into what will be three hours of testimony. he talked earlier about the possibility of unconventional policy. we saw the aussie dollar dipped, but it has recovered again. use of unorthodox policy in australia is unlikely. questioning has turned to the topic of trade. it might be short-term benefits for china and australia is china takes steps to stimulate its economy. overall, the trade tensions are negative for investments. phil lowe is continuing to testify. more to come here. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: this is "daybreak: asia." i'm shery ahn in new york. paul: i'm paul allen in sydney. china's latest cpi and dbi data for july in the next hour. inflation may have edged up, reflecting surge prices for pork and vegetables, even though it's a low level. is likely to stand in the way of further easing by the pboc. producer prices may posed a decline for the first time since 2016. for more on this, let's get over to the ubs chief asia and china economist. she joins us from hong kong. we are expecting reasonable numbers for the cpi and ppi. what do you think about when we get the numbers later on? wang: our expectation is cpi has likely picked up to about 2.9%
in japan because of higher pork and food prices. to -.1 also dropped percent, getting into a bit of a decline in july. that reflects the weak domestic economy and weaker commodity prices in china. paul: these backward looking numbers, as well. we had trade numbers for july, which were a bit unexpected. it does all predate the escalation in the trade war that we are seeing. what are we expecting for the august numbers? will we see a sharp turnaround? wang: the july trade number was indeed better than expected. we think there was likely some frontloading, because the tariffs on the last $300 billion of chinese exports were threatened, but not imposed.
when we look at the details of export numbers, it is the consumer products, textiles, garments, shoes, and toys that picked up more than usual. also, shipments to the u.s. have gone up. we think coming august, we can see a payout from that higher number. mentioned, from september onwards, there will be more. -- there will be more tariffs. there will be weaker imports that affect the exports. recently, commodity prices started to decline. exports and imports are likely to weaken from the july numbers. shery: more tariffs can also mean more downside pressure for the chinese yuan. if the pboc allows more weakness, how supportive would it be of the economy? wang: i think with higher andffs, weaker experts,
deteriorating current accounts, they are facing more downward pressure. there is resistance from the u.s. the u.s. has labeled china a currency manipulator for not defending the currency more than usual. also, i think the chinese government also did not want the currency to weaken too much. they were worried about destabilizing depreciations. we think there is limited downside to dollar see him why. we are looking at probably 7.1%. if there is no further escalation. if there is, if there are tariffs going to 25%, we think the currency can go to 7.2% or more. shery: at around 7.2%, would that affect your expectations of what the pboc can be doing, in
terms of key rate cuts or rrr cuts? wang: with the fed cutting, and with central banks around the world starting to ease, i think the pboc has more room for easing, even with a view to defend the currency. our expectation is they will cut rrr another 100 basis points. in an escalation case, they can cut 200 basis points. they can also consider cutting benchmark rates. there's always increased liquidity offering. that's will we expect. that can bring market rates down by at least another 20 basis points. in the escalation, it can go down by 50 basis points. paul: in a way, letting the yuan fall through 7%, has it liberated the pboc from this
trinity of having a six exchange rate, independent monetary policy and open capital account? this 7% was a psychological redline for people in the market and increasing need for policymakers. it is good they broke that to show exchange rates can be appreciating or depreciating. i wouldn't be surprised if they bring it back below 7% at some point and let it break again. that indeed gives them a lot more freedom. i don't know if they are completely liberated, but they know look have to defend exactly at 7%. they can defend at a weaker level. shery: bloomberg has learned china is planning an unprecedented overhaul of the financial market that we have not seen since 2015, including unprecedented access to foreign investors. how much is this needed in this
environment where you continue to see these trade tensions with the u.s. to get this capital flows into china? wang: i think the financial isket opening and reform part of a long-term plan of china's commitment to continue to form an opening. these accelerated moves may have been partly driven by negotiations with the u.s. the u.s. want to china to open its market, and china is doing that. at this stage, regardless of what the trade deal may or may not look like, china realizes we need to continue to push through for their own sake. there's a near-term benefit, which is more capital inflows at a time that it is needed. july, see that as of
there has been continued inflow into the bond market for the net capital inflows. morethe longer term, foreign competition, more foreign entry into financial services, such as banking, asset management, insurance, payment systems, so on, would help improve efficiency. it is not just a short-term capital inflow, it is about efficiency, competition, and making the chinese economy work better. that is mainly for the long time. shery: thank you so much, joining us from ubs. if you missed any part of that conversation, tv is your function. you can catch up on past interviews, also, watch us live, dive into any securities or bloomberg functions we talk about. become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. in late trade after second-quarter earnings fell short of estimates. sales missed forecasts. it came at $5.4 billion. bookings rose almost one third in the second quarter as they generated $2.9 billion in adjusted revenue. but arise from last year,
low of $3 billion that they had expected. broadcom has clinched a deal to provide -- have $10.7 billion in cash, adding software to keep hackers auto corporate systems. in deal is expected to close their fiscal fourth-quarter that ends in january, and comes less than a month after discussions fell apart over disagreements of the price. if you fancy yourself as a high great hacker, there's $1 million on offer from apple, who is handling specially set up iphones to researchers to help discover flaws before real hackers do. special phones will drop some security features and enable access. they are upping the reward as part of their program to expand -- and want to expand it to a range of devices. are some key events investors will be watching in the week ahead. monday, the world's most
profitable company, saudi aramco, will -- [no audio] shery: trade continues to loom over key economic data. germany's growth is expected to take a dent from the month of tariff uncertainty. the bank is predicting a contraction in the quarter. all of this coming up top of an expected tense weekend of protests in hong kong. let's turn to selina wang for what to expect later in the markets. watching the, i'm market ahead. i'm focused on the open today. asian shares pushed higher friday. mostly green across the board. that's after sentiment from wall street was outweighing the
resurfacing of trade tensions. that bodes well for the china open, which will be supported by the better than expected trade data. this is after bloomberg reported the u.s. is holding us on a decision about licenses for u.s. companies to restart business with huawei. goldman is revising its forecast, saying there are no longer expecting a deal ahead of the 2020 election. on nothing to look ahead for the china open, they are mulling the biggest changes to its futures market since 2015 and how that will give investors unprecedented access. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> it is nine lakh a.m. in beijing -- 9:00 a.m. in beijing. >> we are counting down to the opening of trade in hong kong and the chinese mainland markets. markets across the region pushing higher as optimism on wall street outweighs renewed tensions. the yen picking up. >> that was after the trump administration paused a decision on looser restrictions for a while way. thehe focus, again, in chinese currency. the offshore