tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg September 4, 2019 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
paul: welcome to "daybreak australia." ophie: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. ♪ paul: here are the top stories we are covering in the next hour. three and out -- boris johnson's ailed bid to trigger snap election. hong kong protesters returned to the streets and vowed to continue their calls for
universal suffrage. they said carrie lam's retreat was too little too late. shery: we have coverage throughout daybreak of these developing political stories. sebastian is following the brexit saga in london and what is next for boris johnson's plan to leave the u.k. out of the eu following defeat in parliament. first, let's get you started with a quick check of how markets closed the wednesday session in the u.s. it was all about geopolitics. less risk in hong kong and the u.k.. nasdaq bothand gaining. tech shares rebounded leading gains. they were the biggest losers in
yesterday's session. energy sectorhe being a big gainer as crude prices rallied above $56 a barrel. fed speak asof well today. the fed president of new york down in minneapolis as well as many others talking about the fed action in september. a little bit of divergent views. we will try to explain what all of that means for the markets later on in the show. for now, you have futures not doing much. let's see how we are setting up in asia. are looking at modest gains potentially for asian stocks this thursday. kiwi stocks starting off on the right foot this morning, up as there is risk events are receding. we have the july trade balance from australia ahead of aussie futures pointing higher. the aussie dollar holding on your a-1-week high, but politics remain in focus.
futures are edging lower after that search we got on thursday as carrie lam indicated plans to withdraw the extradition bill. looking at the risk sentiment , holding onto overnight gains given the risk value we saw across assets. what the focused on prime minister of the u.k., boris johnson, maypole out of the hat, given the surprising defeat he saw in parliament overnight. to that now.et u.k. prime minister boris johnson lost yet another vote in parliament, failing to trigger a snap election. the latest setback comes after mp's moved decidedly to thwart a no deal brexit. let's get the latest from london now. drama in thef
commons. can you run us through what happened? sebastian: absolutely. we had this vote yesterday to take control from the opponents of a no deal brexit. today, we had that vote. this was to request an extension from the eu for that brexit deadline, which currently is at october 31. it would push that forward to january 31, so a three-month delay. that has to go to the house of lords in order to become law. that will happen thursday night. tomorrow in london. there's no guarantee that will pass. there's lots of talk of filibustering from pre-brexit lawrence. labor has said it will not back another election until that law is passed. we are in uncertain times, extraneous circumstances where
you would expect opposition to jump at the chance. they say they want this out of the way first. they are taking no risks and not letting the u.k. run that chance of not -- of crashing out without a deal. we are hearing boris johnson speak saying the tory rebels are backing a deal that frustrates brexit. what does this mean? could we at least get those snap again goinges you can ext week sebastian: from boris johnson has very much been you are messing me up with the eu, undermining my negotiation. there are some convinced he does takeant the deal but would a no deal brexit if that were what it would come to. we could see boris johnson bringing this motion again on monday, but remember that the bar is very high to get an
election. of need 2/3 of and pete -- to back it, and we do need that law to pass first before the labour party will back it. we need to cross that threshold. just not likely we will see that happen until this law gets past. we have the certainty that with a little more time to run that the october 31 deadline is no more. shery: thank you so much for that, joining us from london. let's have some immediate analysis of the drama. anna rosenberg joining us on the line. great to have you with us. to you expecting opposition gamble on new elections? what is the risk here? >> i think the opposition is
actually acting in a very coordinated fashion right now. i do not think they are going to take the gamble, at least until the bill has passed the house of lords, which i think we can take for certain to happen tomorrow or on friday and no later than monday. the opposition may be tempted to yes to a neway election, but we have been hearing members of the labour party saying they will not back a general election for the october 31 deadline because they backthat if johnson comes to power, he may find a way to ignore the law -- for example, by repealing it -- and still call for a no deal brexit. athink labor is playing dangerous game and will likely hold and wait for a general election until no deal is really
off the table on october 31. although today was a positive day in terms of risk, the risks crashing out have certainly gone down significantly for now. shery: to your point, boris johnson could come back in force. area thatse case an if we get a going, that boris johnson will win and what is the possibility of a corbyn premiership here? >> it is important to look at what johnson has been doing since he stepped into downing street. he has been saying he does not want an election but has so far proved the opposite. every single thing he has done has been pursuing an election. his aim was to blame parliament for an in equitable delay and then blame parliament for the
need of a new election. he wants that because he needs to change parliament so he can eventually passed a deal potentially or leave with a no deal. what we're seeing now is actually johnson's strategy playing out very nicely. if you checked earlier on twitter, we had a #trending earlier saying parliament versus the people and boris back to brexit areacked trending on twitter. he still has a good chance of winning because he will consolidate the radicalized leave vote. he is however taking a very high gamble here because while he has taken radical action, he has been putting off moderate conservative voters, and he still needs them. is allowing the opposition to
look quite coordinated, and for the first time, we're seeing jeremy corbyn appear like a statesman, so he is giving him credibility. unless he starts to focus on attracting again moderate conservative voters, our base case remains he will win an election and once he has, he will try to renegotiate with the eu. he is not going to be successful because at this point many bridges have been burned. no deallacing a scenario more likely in january. paul: that is an interesting point you make. deal.ikely it is a no it has just been pushed out until the end of 2020, but if the snap election occurs, there's no guarantee that will result in, well, anything other than potentially another hung .arliament and more dithering it jeremy corbyn won, it might lay there a few skin is --
schisms in the labour party. >> for sure. that's why we also still think that a second referendum is highly likely at 30%. i think the most likely if thetive option is conservatives failed to win a majority, you will have a combination of the coalition government, and in that situation, you will have definitely a second referendum. the lib dem elements will add some moderation. paul: thanks for joining us. let's check in on first word .ews jessica: thanks, paul. protesters in hong kong are vowing to continue their fight
for universal suffrage, executive chief carrie lam's formal withdrawal of her extradition bill as too little, too late. demonstrators faced off against police once more, repeating calls for all five of their demands to be met. they include an independent inquiry into police action over the past three months and for lam to step down. >> after more than teen of months of social unrest, it is obvious to many that discontentment extends far beyond the bill. it covers political, economic, and social issues. jessica: china is signaling that the amount of cash it needs is on the way. forstate council is calling tools to support growth including broad and targeted reserve ratio cuts. the pboc usually does followthrough. policymakers cut to triple are
january after a similar announcement. the u.s. is said to have tried to bribe the captain of a suspect iranian oil tanker, offering cash to sale to a course that would him pound the vessel on behalf of washington. they say they have seen several emails from a senior official at the state department offering several million dollars to change sides. seem to have not applied to the state department and has not made any comments. dorian is edging closer to the eastern sea border of the u.s. with torrential rain and sustained wind of 170 columnar's and our the system is expected to weaken further, but it should cross north carolina's outer banks later thursday. dorian killed at least seven people in the bahamas and left much of the country under water. the financial impact is forecast at about 25 billion dollars. global news 24 hours a day on
air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. paul: still to come, an indicator in the skies. we meet the world's largest owner of commercial planes and discuss the future of aircraft leasing, the 737 max 8 its woes, and the wider global slowdown. shery: up next, $17 trillion in negative yielding assets. our next guest has some ideas on where to find growth and returns. this is bloomberg. ♪
lots on the agenda this week. su: in the meantime, it looks like investors got a reprieve. it's taken look at the market snapshot. note that tech, which was leading the way lower in the last session, now leading the way higher. the semiconductor index coming on strong. notice that the put/call ratio is on the rise, which shows bearish bets on the market are increasing. we quickly look at the big movers. notice intel up in a big way on the optimism about semiconductor chips. 33%e shack very big, now up in august versus the 2% decline on the s&p in august, so big move there. roku also a company that continues to come on strong, hitting record levels in its latest session, and apple really noteworthy because this is
probably the most cash-rich company on the planet, and it's joining the flood of investment grade issuers. the company has not borrowed in years and is now borrowing about $7 billion. after hours, a software company that went on the market with a direct listing, really disappointed with its first time report. prices to oil, we saw recovering from the selloff the last few days. biggest jump into it of months. is still downt from a year ago, not really following market fundamentals, following this demand concern because of the global economy and trade issues. back to you. paul: thanks very much for that. asset senior management portfolio investor joins us now. we are seeing a bit of a risk on fedy, but i think is the
would say, the caveat is for now, are we just sort of laying by on the volatility highway here? >> volatility certainly has picked up and it's because of all the conflict we have to deal with and hear about every single day related to all the macro uncertainty. global slowing and the trade wars definitely play a role in that, but volatility can create opportunity as well, and i would say as an active manager and the active managers that i see within wells fargo asset management are taking advantage and pickingility stocks and actually outperforming on a relative basis through stock selection. paul: you say it is good for active managers, but is it easy to get things wrong? it is a bit of a white knuckle thinkespecially when you things can change in the blink
of a 4:00 a.m. tweet. >> it is a bit of a wild ride, but as you think about long-term investing, you make longer-term decisions and take advantage of that volatility and emotion in the market to make good stock selections and that's what we're doing. we have outperformed on a relative basis along with a lot of the other equity managers within wells fargo active management this year because of that volatility. i think rather than being scared away from the markets and this volatility, it is time to take advantage of that. certainly within the technology space, there's growth opportunities, but i would say that you cannot ignore other sectors because those other sectors, there is a lot of other stocks that are getting washed away, and there's opportunities there as well. given what about reit's, that there's hope for more interest rate cuts? >> there's real true asset value behind real estate.
they are producing assets. $17 trillion of global, you know, assets at a negative seekingo investors are yields. reits provide that, and there is growth. better growth than a lot of other stable assets, so i think reits are still a good asset class to be in. everybody knows strong returns and attractive yields have already led to a surge in the sector. >> it has. that sector along with utilities and stables are three of the best-performing sectors year to date, but again, the sector stands out to me because of the real asset value behind it. we also have not seen the overbuilt that we have in previous cycles, which has been a positive, i think real estate will hold its value better in the next downturn because we have not seen the tremendous overbuilt in the u.s. that we
had in the last cycle. paul: you say the consumer is holding up well, but we have some notes saying consumer spending is mix. fed's john williams says the consumer is carrying the weight right now. how much longer do you think consumer spending can carry the weight of the u.s. economy? >> the consumer is carrying a lot of weight and the u.s. certainly is dependent on the consumer. consumerk that confidence is key. what we saw in august was still a fairly good number, pretty much equal to what we saw a year ago, but i do think it is highly dependent on jobless claims. we will watch those carefully. people are confident because they are employed, and they are seeing rising wages. small but rising. if those things continue and you
have the fed cutting rates, those should be positive .riggers for the consumer our economy is largely dependent on that. opinioneryone's got an on the fed right now. i'm wondering what is yours. i guess september is baked in. what after that? >> i think we will probably see at least one other one. that is pretty much a consensus view. i'm happy they are saying we're just going to follow the data and watch carefully and take action. that's what they need to do, and that is what they are saying they will do, so i'm going to hold them to their word. hopefully they will take timely action. thank you very much. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets that you
paul: i'm paul allen in sydney. ahn in newshery york. you are watching daybreak australia. apple is ready to borrow $7 billion in its first bond sale in kid of. cheap borrowing costs have even those companies flush with cash joining a number of funds entering the debt market. apple has more than 200 billion dollars in cash and securities on its books and we are told it is selling senior unsecured bonds. paul: emirates is telling boeing and airbus it is no longer willing to accept claims that do not meet specifications. the airline president says he with glitchesnce
and poor quality that have models or caused costly repairs. china airlines has finalized an order for six in a bid7 freighters to modernize its cargo fleet. the deal is worth more than $2 .illion the taiwanese carrier already operates more than 50 boeing .lanes fell as itscks forecast is below the ongoing model of 10% plus. that compares to a 10% projection of at least 13% at its investor day last year. shares fell at the start of the session but recovered somewhat by the start of the close. starbucks says it will offer full year guidance on its fourth-quarter earnings call.
paul: 8:30 a.m. thursday morning in sydney. futures pointing higher by about .2% after we saw a risk on the rally in u.s. equities. shery:futures pointing higher bt .2% after we saw a in new york,0 p.m. you are watching "daybreak australia." let's get to first word news with jessica summers. jessica: u.k. prime minister boris johnson has lost another vote in the u k parliament, failing in his attempt to trigger another snap election. theson tried to argue that early election is the only solution to the brexit gridlock that has paralyzed britain for
the last three years. it is the third vote johnson has lost in the last 24 hours. singapore is to review electoral boundaries in the single and general election may be on the way. there's no timeline, but the process has taken up to four months in the past and normally a vote follows once the recommendations are made. the next selection must be held by april 2021. is widely seen as the last for the prime minister as he has vowed to hand over power by the time he turns 70 in 2022. enjoyed a second straight month of year on year sales gains, easing the pain of a rust first half -- of a rough first half. 51% of thes lead demand for sedans slowed. is in aeanwhile
93-month streak of sales gains. the philippines president is ready to defy is china. he said his country benefits from online casinos and will support the industry to spite beijing's call for a total ban. investors had dumped philippine theyrty stocks amid fears industrymp down on the . global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. in hong kongers are vowing to continue their fight for universal suffrage, dismissing chief executive carrie lam's formal withdrawal of the extradition bill as too little too late. in a televised address, carrie lam accepted that more needed to be done to restore calm.
>> after more than two months of social unrest, it is obvious to many that discontentment extends far beyond the bill. it covers political, economic, and social issues. paul: we go to hong kong this morning. can protesters call this even a partial victory of sorts? could say this is carrie lam's biggest concession since this movement began nearly four months ago. you saw parts of the televised address that came out last night, and it was a very somber one from carrie lam where she says she knows it does not go far enough but she is willing to meet in the middle in some way. even before this came out, there had been news breaking out that she would be fully scrapping the bill, protesters were already saying it was too little, too late, not enough to satisfy their demands. this is a group now who are
willing to fight for more and willing to want more. where perhaps carrie lam did not go far enough was the other four demands protesters had. carrie lam said she cannot give amnesty to demonstrators charged with crimes, the nearly 1200 people that were arrested since june. she said this would eventually be -- they broke the law and this is a violation of judicial process. also, she did not go far enough to set up an independent commission on the police's handling of the protests. she did add two new members to the existing committee, but protesters say the group is mainly made up of pro-government members, so it would not do too much for them, and perhaps the most important thing is the fact universaluled out suffrage. beijing explicitly rule that out this week. carrie lam once again says this is up to beijing to decide, and
when it comes to that, there needs to be further discussion without polarizing society. this point,ay at this move, though it is a u-turn, is just a band-aid, they say, to rotting flesh. that was what we heard yesterday. shery: what does this mean? are we expecting the protests and violence to continue? >> we are already hearing protests will be happening. things that were planned for saturday presumably will still be going on. we heard from business groups as well. saw, were quite excited about the news. we saw the hang seng close to 1000 points yesterday on reports she would be withdrawing this bill. business groups like the american chamber of commerce saying this could be enough to at least calm the situation right now. perhaps this could help mediate some of the moderates out there.
frontline protesters are saying things are still going on. they are not going to end this fight until they see more concessions from the government. paul: we had a bit of news as from cathay. the chairman quitting. how has that impacted sentiment? >> we saw the stock actually bounced back after markets closed on the news of this extradition bill being fully withdrawn. what we heard afterwards was that those residing's are due to retirement. this is weeks after the ceo also resigned, so it of executives from the airline that have resigned in light or amid these unrest.
businesses like cathay pacific where staff were found to be involved in some of these protests. and a lot of questions on where to go next here for cathay pacific. who will bew ceo replacing the chairman. that was big news yesterday with the end of a nearly 40-year career. you so much, joining us from the streets of hong kong. stocks in asia are set to open higher after the gains we saw on wall street. for what to watch this morning, here is sophie. sophie: companies are seeking to capitalize on cheaper borrowing costs. in asia, we are seeing investment grade issuers lead that activity with china leading the charge. this as we see the average yield on notes fall to levels we have not seen since late 2016.
on wednesday, we saw a surge in , this amid news of the extradition bill withdrawal, ig namess in the auto about five to 10 basis points higher. companies are jumping on that bandwagon. get more on what we should be watching us trading gets under way in asia. editor adam haigh joins us. can markets take solace from the latest commentary from china authorities when they signaled more reductions in the rrr? adam: no doubt it offers some comfort to global investors, especially after their being so much negativity coming from china out of the next year or so. projections are for economic growth to continue to be under a period of sustained weakness. we had that weak pmi number coming out over the weekend as well.
you can see this chart those cuts that have been happening over the past years. certainly the state council calling for the use of tools which will include most probably over the next 45 weeks another cut to the rrr. .urther easing is needed chinese authorities were not going to follow up with these kind of polyps -- policy tools -- it was not chinese authorities were not going to follow-up with these kind of policy tools. this is at least providing some comfort now, and it's a little more clear that this indeed is the next move, and it's coming relatively soon. shery: no comfort here when it comes to the relaxed in real in u.s. cavities. what are the applications? >> the story of the economy struggling to generate inflation is not new, but what is new is
what we saw in the market. pricing for future expectations of inflation and in august, as you can see on this chart, there was a pronounced continuation of this decline we have seen in tips, which is a good gauge on the u.s. side. of course, the application from certainly dipped below 0% in august, is how much further can this go? can you see more declines and indeed for the folks a socgen, they say it is the pace of decline that is troubling. you see that huge trend lower on the chart, and it has gotten a little bit steeper in the last few months. them,s what is concerning when the fed is talking about the potential for wage increases and for inflation to generate the economy. clearly, the market is not pricing in that and expectations are deteriorating even further. paul: thanks for joining us. you can check out our gtb
of the chartsme we have been talking about. shery: two top fed officials are warning the u.s. consumer may look strong now, but there's no growth will stay strong. kathleen hays is here with a lot of fed speak today, but let's get started with those comments on consumers because we thought they were the beacon of light in this economy. kathleen: it is not that they are not. the problem is what is that light starts to dim? chart thatight to a looks at consumer spending. he, too, like others, is focused on this chart. in the second quarter gdp report, consumer spending was up nearly 5% year-over-year. 4.7 percent, as you can see, one of the best quarters were consumer spending since 2003.
that's before the great recession. this chart shows you spending on cars and consumer appliances has been getting stronger as well. in a speech today, he talked about the economy broadly. again, it looks pretty solid. he went on to say -- let's look at exactly his words. one thing about consumer spending, which, yes, he noted expert he good, is that the consumer is now carrying all of the weight or much of the weight going forward. he goes on to say one thing about consumer spending, you have to be careful. it's not really a leading indicator. this is so important what he is saying. see if it isit to going down. this is the problem. it does not mean it is going to stay strong if for example the trade war keeps eating away at it. slowing export growth and slowing manufacturing may signal the economy's true direction. rob kaplan was speaking today
and after his speech, he talked to reporters. he went on to say he is waiting dayee if weak macroeconomic , the kind of thing john williams was talking about, business investment and more, is starting to filter into consumer spending. he says if you wait to see consumer weakness, it may be too late. paul: what are the reasons than for fed officials to be worried? tohleen: let's get right that. a big drop in consumer sentiment last week. if consumers are not so optimistic, how much are they going to spend? we have this chart that shows two consumer confidence numbers. look at the white line from the university of michigan, the newer's numbers -- the newer numbers. see that plunge? going on.is perhaps trade war uncertainty hitting the consumer. the beige book out from the fed today saying consumer spending .as mixed
some districts saw stronger spending, some solid weaker. ie inverted yield curve copy of minneapolis fed president well.ashkari as there are some people clearly looking at that rate cut door. paul: thanks very much for joining us. coming up, an exclusive interview with the ceo of the world's largest owner of commercial aircraft, his outlook for the commercial aviation industry and the effects of the trade war next. this is bloomberg. ♪
ceo's. great to have you with us. we are seeing strong demand for your planes. us about your pipeline this year, next year. >> we release our aircraft well in advance, probably a year or two. about 1/7 of have our fleet we have to lease out all over the world. always trading aircraft all over the world. what we see generally around the globe at the moment, there are pockets of weakness, there always are any given year, but generally, traffic is reasonably robust and is good, solid demand for aircraft. shery: does that mean you have yet to see any impact from ongoing trade tensions between the u.s. and china, the slowing global economy, and others headwinds we are seeing right
now? >> we are kind of forward-looking. airlines are looking at the consumer generally two years down the road. what we continue to see is that the trade war is out there for the, but it has yet to have discernible demand -- discernible effect on demand. chinese markets highly protected, highly regulated. you and i could start up an airline tomorrow morning in the states, no one could stop us. if you go to china, it would take many, many years -- probably never -- to get the license to start up an airline. it is a much more protected market. the domestic market is still quite strong. for the consumptionfor the cons, be it travel, medical care, tourism, etc., so that is still growing fairly strongly.
paul: just want to get your thoughts on what is happening with the boeing 737 max. by the looks of your website, you have about 100 of these on your books or ordered. how is that affecting your plans? >> the issues on the macs are well documented at the moment. we do have a total of 106, delivery of five. 95 remain on order, many of which we have already leased out to airlines that will take them in the coming years, but of course, the challenge at the moment is certification. when will this airplane be permitted to fly on a global basis? currently, boeing is saying that will occur in the fourth quarter. that may well be the case and perhaps one jurisdiction, maybe in the u.s. the challenge for the aircraft, it is a global product, so it needs to be allowed to fly on a global basis. having developed a flight in one jurisdiction is not satisfactory and certainly will not be satisfactory for the customer base.
two of the key regulators inolved as well as the faa europe and in china, and if you have one jurisdiction that approve it. the airline cannot operate the aircraft. it has to fly through chinese airspace. the same is true if the u.s. approves it and canada doesn't and mexico doesn't. what has to happen for the aircraft is there has to be a global coordination of regulators. without that, it is haphazard, and it is not being introduced into the system and it makes it difficult for airlines to plan," impossible. it is already costing airlines a significant amount. as you can see, boeing have already taken a $5 million charge. paul: how has that affected the
leasing market? >> the thing is, airplanes are generally manufactured or released well -- or least well ahead of manufacture date. airbus cannot build these airplanes overnight. airbus has plenty of their own trouble building the a320 neo themselves. they don't have the capacity to take any boeing customers at the moment to the extent that they were willing to replace airbus aircraft. what is happening is the customers are struggling with having to pay for airplanes that are grounded because they have to pay for the ownership costs. they could be significant. you're talking about $5 million year in overshift costs. .ilots is sitting on the ground
they have to get paid. you have to pay for the spare parts you bought for the aircraft. storage costs. you also have to pay for the fact that you have to hire someone else to carrier passengers that you thought you would carry on the macs. have to get someone else to do it for you. what are your plans portfolio-wise? what are some of the models you plan to add? want to make sure is that you have assets your customers want. you have to really listen to where the market is going, where is trending. aircraft ind 2000 the last five years. that's more than anyone in the world. it's almost 10% of the world global market of aircraft. that gives us enormous information. for example, what are airlines doing each year with aircraft?
it is a key driver of the decision-making. our consumers putting money into first-class, flying longer haul missions? we see how our portfolio of aircraft is used so we see what is happening to each individual type. are they lengthening the average mission, shortening it, where are they flying to? you use that information and you are collating that every day to make those decisions about the aircraft that you feel will be in demand for the longer term and also to ensure your pruning your portfolio assets you feel may suffer because of the trends happening out there. shery: great having you with us. thank you so much for telling us about your business. watch us live and also watch our past interviews. if you missed any part of this conversation, tv goes the function. you can watch us live and die into any of the securities and bloomberg functions we talk
you're watching daybreak australia. let's get a check on the business flash headlines. plunging in late trade after forecasting slower sales. 154, one hundred $56 million in the fiscal third quarter with the year on year rise of 47%. analysts were expecting the numbers to -- and pointed out sales soared 58% in the three months through to july. haidi: the app offers monthly
subscriptions that include unlimited car rentals. raised $26 million in funding so far. it is targeting to set up and -- in singapore and japan next. sovereign wealth fund is nearing a deal to buy some of the most time as hotels in canada. gac plans to buy a majority stake in the fairmont hotels own -- owned by oxford properties group. the deal is expected to be $1.5 billion u.s. retain aected to minority stake in hotels and continue to manage them. exclusive withan the ceo and chief of diversity live from bloomberg's sooner