tv Fast Money CNBC April 5, 2010 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
but most money managers who were victorious and heroes for keeping some cash in early 2009, late 2008, having any cash at all if you're an active manager has been a bad thing. so it's not the cash on the sidelines but it's the cash in the funds that has typically run between 7% and 11%, which has gotten to -- it continues to -- >> sorry, can i interrupt here? forgive me for interrupting. this is absolute lala land. most people don't sit at home having to be fully invested in the market. it's utter nonsense. they have a choice. they can is the on the sidelines because the cost benefit is different. if the fund manager loses money, it's not ultimately his money. the guy sitting at home, yes, they miss rallies but for very good reasons, gary. >> but simon, the guy who's sitting at home who has kept money on the sidelines doesn't care about what's happening in the equity markets. but the viewers who are participating day to day have to pay attention to what's happening. and when i look at what is a possible variable that may come into the market, the only thing
i see stopping this momentum right now is a sustainable move in interest rates that impacts equities, and that's the only thing i see. >> it's a good point. and in fact, you know, today with the treasury ten-year touching 4% we have a lot of people concerned about rates. we've been bringing it up on this desk. but karen's bringing the real point here. the data, forget being at home and being on the sidelines and money managers. money managers in 2008, the end of the year, that stayed out of the market did fantastic. the fundamentals that are coming through and the things i'm looking at that have changed here is that the global economy, if we get even half a percentage point above the expectations on global growth that we're getting, then the rest of the world can rally truly, the u.s. can rally truly. so the tankan survey last week in japan which is their economic bellwether, all the industrial production out of europe last week which is going to drive exports and drive this economy, that's what you want to be looking at. the labor numbers obviously. why is the world going higher? yeah, it's a speculative instrument to show these people taking risk but it's showing there's true demand in the labor
market and -- >> gary, come back on that if you would. we have to move on. >> i don't agree with anything tim is saying, and the fundamentals have clearly been better for the last several months. but remember, we're in meltup. everything's going up. and a meltup is when managers just want to get invested. and that's what's happening. >> gary, we have to leave you for the moment but i know you're going to come back on the program -- >> i think he meant the opposite. >> gary brings up actually a good point when you're talking about the ten-year treasury. if the spike occurs that is negative for the equities market and the question becomes how quickly do you get the spike? >> my question is what is a spike? >> well, if you get above 4% in the ten-year yield -- >> so if we're at 4.1 -- >> hold on one second. even more importantly, look at the 30 year. if the 30-year really begins to accelerate because that's where private sector borrowing costs begin to get impacted. that's where you have to be concerned -- >> i don't really think a pivot point will drive the regular investor, joe and jane investor, toward fixed income until it passes 4.5.
karen, you trade institutional money. i know both you guys do too. but i don't. from the people i talk with 4% is a number. we hit that in november. big deal. like you said, a sustainable -- in other words, not just a spike but a sustainable move up and through toward 4 1/2, that i think could get people moving, but i don't think any moves to 4 changes anything in the market. the dynamic that gary said about investment managers having to commit capital. i think that continues to keep them on the sideline because they keep waiting for that and they're not getting it. >> i agree with jon completely. i think if you look on the way down it didn't matter. they cut rates to zero. it didn't help when things were going against us. so i think the reverse is true. if you get a steady if not a crazy exogenous spike up you have to think about why are rates higher. are rates higher because global economy is improving? if that's the case i think you can make a strong case for equities. >> i'm being told to get the chart of the day. hang on. now it's time for the chart of the day! >> where did you get that from?
>> from rick santelli. >> you guys, sort out some confusion here. this is a chart that shows that 90% of stocks are above their 50-day moving averages. i assumed that that would be actually quite good and would be a positive signal. the producer tells me it's an indication that everything's virtually all over. is that right or not? >> i'd say technically i'd be more worried about it over the 20. the short term is the 20. that's the one that's telling you really how much momentum, how much froth is in stocks. i agree. i think the fact we're above the 50-day means a lot of stocks have actually put a fundamental floor underneath them, and the volatility is very low. that's what it's telling you. and for lack of a better word we're all scared about volatility for moving higher, but to me that's very good. >> i think the most important indicator has been sentiment, and clearly sentiment has remained in doubt, questioning the market's rally, until probably about the last week or so. you're finally starting to see people acknowledge that this is not a u recovery. >> okay. topping the tape today, oil and oil stocks. crude of course breaking above
technical resistance and nearing $87 a barrel. joe, how do you trade it? >> i think you trade it from the long side, as we've talked about on this show, continually looking for oil to move higher and higher. this is where my concern with the equities markets on 10-year yields rising in a more aggressive fashion -- oil prices are rising right now in an aggressive fashion. and keep in mind right now you've reached above 85. 90 is coming next. it's going there quickly. what you want to do here is look at oil futures from the long side. uso. whatever the play is. and against it. don't sell your holdings in energy, but sell other things. look at the airlines. look at some of the select retailers. j i've got guys pinging me, telling me the reason oil stocks are going up is the same reason gold was going up last year. they say it's a fear trade. and i say you guys, you are exactly wrong. that is not why it's going up. >> i'm going to get real defensive on this because i'm trading the stuff all day. i see the flows that are coming in. and it's institutional money coming in -- >> because they want it.
>> they've been doing this, jon, they've been doing -- it went down to 70 bucks in february. we said buy it there. why? because institutions came in the next day, swept the market up high. it's institutional money, and it goes back to your point. the emerging market, the demand is there, and it is real. >> because it's real demand is my point. and your point. because it's real demand. not because it's i fear trade. again, i'm getting pinged by all these guys telling me it's a fear trade, jon. it's not a fear trade. i'd be scared to death to buy oil at $87 a barrel. so in other words, it is a fear trade on my side. i think this is just demand driven, joe, just like you're saying. it's demand driven. and the more the rest of the world recovers then it's just going to go higher. >> the biggest producer in the world, they're the ones that raised 5% yesterday to u.s. and asian buyers. what you want to do now is go back to the trades that worked when oil was spiking to 120 a year and a half ago, go buy resources, the enp plays. people are paying more for asset multiples. pxd, pioneer, eurasia.
some of the names are -- >> let me check on some other trades. let's bring in patty edwards who's at the prop desk. patty, oil and gasoline behaving in a way that you could interpret in other stocks as trades that people could profit from. >> absolutely. and i think joe's right on this one. i would not be playing the airlines because that's the consumer stepping back. similarly, if you look at some of the consumer stocks, you're going to see some pullback. and what i'd like to do is kind of protect that. i mentioned this last week, but i want to reiterate it. you can go short some of the etfs for retail. either the rth or the xrt. and then go long some of the better operators. what you're doing is you're just capturing the alpha at that point. and you can do it fairly cheaply. you're looking at somebody like an a.r.o., aeropostale, that is trading at 11 times. look at a tjx, which i know karen likes, trading at about 14 times this year's numbers. look at j. crew, which i know that karen doesn't like, that's trading at a more expensive p/e
of 20 times but one of the best operators out there. you've got to pick and choose at this point in time. i don't think this rising tide is going to be lifting all boats. >> patty. >> well, i agree with patty for agreeing with me, of course. tjx is trading nicely. but i also like some high-end ones. saks has had a terrific run, and i think while saks is expensive the idea that the high-end consumer is back, that is really -- i believe in that strength. so i wouldn't be shorting anything that -- >> hang on. what's the bottom line here? the bottom line is at a time when we think that unemployment may be finally about to turn the corner in this country you're going to start selling retailers because gasoline prices are rising, patty. that seems a little bit like the tail wagging the dog, doesn't it? >> no. you go short the index, you go long individual names. net net all you're getting is the alpha exposure out of this thing. i'm not saying you need to step out of the consumer completely. i do think that the rising gas is going to hurt the lower-end consumer more so than any others. and i would be a little leery
even of the middle-income consumers. i like the high end, like karen said. not the biggest fan of saks. i'd go with a nordstrom. maybe that's because they're here. i don't know. >> before we dismiss oil and move on to the next thing, i truly believe right now oil approaching 90 will be the bugaboo for the economy. when you look at corporate earnings, what are you going to hear? you're going to hear about higher input costs. that's going to weigh on revenues as we move forward into the next quarter. >> all right, joe. we need to move on, as you mentioned. let's talk about another retail story. no apologies for covering this again. apple selling 300,000 of its new ipads on the first day of sales overt the weekend. many of the buyers no doubt being apple's diehard fans. but importantly, this is a question we're going to ask now, could the ipad help apple break into an area that it has so far been locked out of? corporate clients. in particular, with the apps for doing your taxes or whatever, could small and medium size businesses finally run with the ipad? on the fast line now, apple
analyst peter misek from cannacord adams. ji think this is the beginning of a big trend. i'm switching. i hate traveling with a laptop. it's too heavy. it's a pain. this thing is a lot quicker to pull out of your bag, a lot lighter, easier on the shoulder. i like my ipad. i've got to think consumers will love it and so will businesses. >> how much money coy make on this? if you're right and it picks off what sort sort of money will i make on the stock? >> i think apple is a 20% plus returner here. we think it's going to go a lot higher. lots more catalysts. thursday's another big event. lots going on. >> is the revenue contribution from the international side factored into the estimate equations? because right now internationally the ipad's not out there yet. >> correct. we've factored into our numbers, but you know, it's a complete guess. it's tough to say. we've got to think the international side's going to be at least as big as domestic. we really think you can see around 3.5 million ipads this year, 12, 15 next. and then iphones are going to explode. 50 million next year. big number. >> peter, jon najarian here.
just a real quick question about the 3g ipad that's rolling out the end of the month. i think that gives apple another shot at the end of this month that could boost it and another look at the consumer in particular because these are higher end consumers. obviously, anybody buying a $499 device is a step above a lot of consumers. but this next iteration is about $600. how many do you see them selling in advance? and on that opening day. >> we think it's going to be around 1/5 to 1/10 the size, and the reason is the data plans -- you don't need to get a data plan but spending another $30 a month when you've got pretty good wi-fi coverage might be a challenge. for commuters like myself it's a must-have. i'm certainly going to buy another one -- >> if it comes out -- peter, if it comes out with half, in other words, 150,000 units versus 300,000, wouldn't that be a blowout? >> absolute blowout. >> peter, thank you very much for that view on apple. let's go around the horn and ask each of you about how you rate
the stock. jon? >> i like the stock, although i've sold all my apple stock. i'm not out of the stock, though, folks. i'm long call spreads now. in other words, i took the big money off the table. i'm in call spreads. i'm also in best buy because i think that is the ultimate halo effect here. best buy stores were jammed over the weekend, and i think a lot of the peripherals being bought, not even apple peripherals, in other words, headsets and wireless mice and things like, that i think that benefits best buy huge in this quarter. >> karen. >> i own apple. i sold 40% of it last week, but i think that with all the hype that's had apple trading up so high before that it actually was up today is actually a pretty amazing performance. i know the market was up broadly. and i agree with jon, i have best buy too, bought it as recently as this morning. >> let me bring in gary kaminsky for another way in which potentially -- people talking about verizon and the reason people could do the deal with apple to take the next model of the product. but you're quite bearish on verizon, i understand.
is that right? >> well, first of all, excellent point by karen just in terms of apple's -- the way apple traded today, simon. and verizon is something as well as at&t that we have been concerned about for some time. let me just make a couple of points. number one, the idea that verizon's going to have a next generation iphone has been in the market for almost a year. so this is not new news. in fact, this is something that's been factored in for some time. but more importantly, what happens with the iphone going to verizon is going to make the customer retention cost that much more higher between at&t and verizon. you're going to see these guys eating into their margins to basically get the customers. and remember, while some will think the iphone is good for verizon, the fact is verizon's got a lot of problems. last week they more or less came out and said that the fios thing has been a disaster. i was on vacation last week. i got home. i must have had ten direct mailers in the mail offering me like free fios service if i'll bundle the services. so remember, while iphone is good for the consumers going to verizon, it's not good for the stock. this is a company that's going
to continue to fight with at&t for customers. and cable companies are the winners as fios is a disaster. >> jon. >> i like verizon. i don't want to argue with gary kaminsky. but i do like verizon a lot here because i think, gary, when they give up part of the revenue stream back to apple the way at&t does, that's not costing them money because these are new customers that they're either bring over from at&t or they're brand new customers that have switched from, for instance, a research in motion product and has allowed verizon to hold on to them. so i do like the up side for verizon from here. if, like you've said, this has been in the market for years, actually, plural, that they might have some sort of a tie-in with a cdma chip. if they do, i think that's huge for verizon. >> gary let's -- >> simon, let's just not forget, don't get hyped up with verizon being in the iphone. the problems with how much money they've spent on fios, whereas the shareholders would have been so much better off now if they'd just given a massive dividend, put that money in shareholders'
pockets. let's not forget about that. >> i just want to clarify one thing about who benefits-nly. apple's had a tough time actually getting adopters because the price point's way too high. you're talking about the networks and the guys that can benefit, i don't think you can attribute -- translate this to a china unicom. the names you want to buy who are the cellular providers there in latin america, vivo, nahd. apple doesn't have that possibility. in the short run the price point's still too high. >> that's why you don't think apple will do so well. >> exactly. >> gary, thank you very much. we've said good-bye to gary. next trade, casino stocks, sands and mgm among the best performers today, up 9% each on hopes of economic recovery. but jon najarian taking a different eye on this particular sector on an under the radar name. >> it's not a gamble, simon. it's igt. international game tech. this one there's leveraged buyout news, folks, or not news. rumors.
they're like noses. everybody's got one. be careful. however, the activity here was so hot on the institutional side. we're breaking it down by blocks, looking on at ten lots which is retail but at big 700,000 lot blocks. a lot of that went off in the first 11 minutes of trading today. that's an institution that wants in bad to basically buy in big and buy in in those big institutional chunks throughout the day. traded 28,000 versus a normal of 1500 contracts. >> another name we talk about a lot, mpa, melco international, again, the macau gaming story, jpmorgan with a $7 price target, it's currently trading 5 bucks. this is a name we've liked the last 20%. there's a lot more to go. the key is these guys understated their earnings they were very conservative about the next two quarters i think they're going to beat and i think macau gaming with all the support from the government mpel is the game to buy out there because it's the most levered. >> don't forget at home to vote incidentally on the championship of "fast money" madness. your votes have already narrowed down 64 companies to the
remaining two. they are apple and berkshire hathaway. who do you like? >> duke. just say duke. >> only you can decide at home the winner. so text "madness" to 26221. 26221. right now and weigh in. we'll be back after the break on "fast money." >> our market players are always ahead of the press. >> i like borders better. the stock trades as though it's going to go bankrupt at a dollar a share, but we don't view this as a likely bankruptcy. i think borders group is a more attractive risk reward than barnes & noble. >> moments ago one of the biggest players in the military drone market honeywell raise the ilths forecasts. honeywell makes electronics systems for that predator drone. >> you can't afford not to watch. "fast money" 5:00 eastern on cnbc. first in business worldwide. brick breaker. some say the easy money's been made in emerging markets but
oh, yeah. welcome back to "fast money" monday evening on cnbc live from the nasdaq marketsite. we told you how to trade today's news in the first section. now let's focus on tomorrow. and here's a staggering statistic. 1/6 of the american economy is fully devoted to health care. and the most dynamic part of that sector -- biotech. but to trade those volatile names you've got to know the catalysts. thankfully, cnbc's pharmaceutical reporter mike huckman is on the biotech beat. mike, you say -- >> well, first of all, i'm going to have what you're having. all right? >> whatever he's having. >> that's the pharma section. hold on. >> we'll get to that. sorry. >> you say people should be watching more closely the r&d meetings now, not the earnings statements. >> we've got a once in five-year event coming up this thursday. celgene is doing what's called
an r&d day, which stands for research and development, and it's basically going to tie take a deep dive for analysts and investors into its drug development pipeline because wall street wants to know what. what do you got next? what's next? what's coming down the pike that we need to be focused on now? they already know what the company's selling, you know, on the market now. they want to know what's coming down the pike. and this hasn't happened with celgene in about 4 1/2 years' time. so you've got to figure, you guys, if they're doing it that infrequently that maybe they've got something to say. so analysts are expecting some data, some timeline information, et cetera, on at least a handful of drugs that are in celgene's pipeline right now. >> so why haven't they done one of these in 4 1/2 years -- >> because what could they say, mike? what do you expect? >> all right. so a lot of companies in the biopharma space do this on a very regular basis. they do it once a year whether they've got something new to say or not. but other companies like celgene, like bristol-myers squibb, for example, which just did their first one in more than
two years, and let's use that as an example of how this could be a stock-moving catalyst, because since that bristol meeting, you guys, on march 4th or 5th i think it was the stock is up 10%. the pharmaceutical index is up 1 1/2%. so why? what did they talk about? in particular they talked very bullishly and spent a lot of time talking about a drug for skin cancer that might work in about 10% of patients with an advanced aggressive form of this disease. not going to show this on air, but i will pass it around the desk because it is a bit graphic for people. but they showed a series of photographs -- >> hold karen's hand while you look at them. >> he comes from a medical family, and so does she, so they're used to seeing this stuff. but what that is is it showed a patient with severe skin cancer lesions, and over two years' time on this drug from bristol-myers squibb you see it disappeared into a rash. into a rash. wall street's getting excited about that. >> they were the ones who came one this timing on their own? >> in terms of when they schedule the analysts' meeting.
>> and has the stock already run up in anticipation of that? you'd think they'd schedule it because they have something good to say. >> so bristol has run 10% since that meeting. as far as celgene is concerned, that's the question. you're looking at a stock, you guys, that's up, what, 11% year to date and up 750% over the last ten years. >> we know when they call something like this they've got good news, not bad. do we? >> i'm not going to say that's a fait accompli. i'm saying if you come out every 4 1/2 years to do an r&d meeting for wall street then let's make the supposition they've got something to talk about. >> rather than looking at this which i'm going to pass along at timmy i'd rather look at a chart of biotech. as you've suggested, up 30% in the first quarter. and most investors missed the move. so it has the up side momentum. and to me, yes, they're throwing out their pipeline, but it's all about m&a, isn't it? everyone's looking at it and saying this is the potential for m&a. so when you look at it right now second quarter, the names that have underperformed in biotech, those are names you want to be in right now, correct? >> yeah. let's not throw celgene into m&a
because you're looking at a 28, 29 billion-dollar company. >> but it's the theme -- >> it is the theme. so you've got all these guys we've talked about many times before. dendreon, i can go on and on -- >> summarize the bottom line. >> the bottom line is we're giving you a heads up about a potential, potential stock-moving catalyst for celgene later this week and to watch these analysts' meetings. people go oh, ho-hum, their eyes glaze over, but stuff can happen there. >> have a good evening. mike huckman there. there's no bigger saga in the currency markets right now than the u.s. and china exchanging barbs over revaluation of the yuan, the chinese currency. today the treasury secretary tim geithner stopped short of calling china deliberately a currency manipulator, giving president obama a chance, therefore, to try the diplomacy when the chinese leader is in town next week. tim, you say this is coming soon, there's going to be a movement. how do you position yourself for it? >> well, first of all, kudos to geithner. he's a smart guy.
he knows embarrassing the chinese in public is not a way to get something done with these guys. don't expect a major revaluation, but china's now able to come in off the limb. i expect a couple percent certainly by the third quarter. but you want to play commodities because at the end of the day this is giving china greater buying power. if you look at it year over year china's total energy consumption is up about 8%. the u.s. is up about .2%. the trades that haven't moved. look at first quantum fm, they have most of their mining in the african republic of congo. this is a place where they had a huge sell-off last week because of a potential lawsuit which i think is being overdone. the other one is ivanhoe, ivn, trades over here but it's mongolia, australia, these are places with the closest proximity to china. this is a commodities trade -- >> sorry, can i interrupt? i'm supposed to trade a stock in mongolia on the possibility the yuan may revalue. that's pretty tenuous. >> but it's not because the chinese are trying to buy up as much as they can in mongolia and in fact are starting to befriend their friends that aren't really friends. and ivanhoe has been in mongolia
for a long time and australia. it's a fantastic company. you have to know the region to -- >> it's easy to buy on -- >> ivanhoe does trade very liquid, and i like -- >> these are great companies. regardless of what's going on here, just like joe and tim have said about crude oil. inventories alone in the united states were 20%, 24% of the picture. we're not the whole picture for energy or for these other natural resources. so if china and india are ramping up, which carrily they are, then these are good plays. >> we told you at the top of the show about the bullish options activities on igt. on possible consolidation. one reason for that is the options action. and indeed leverage it is said at this stage could actually mean that you win the jackpot on some of these trades. let's do some options action! mike khouw is a contributor as well as cantor fitzgerald's director of u.s. equity derivatives trading. he's got a strategy on igt that could triple your money by july.
really? what is it? >> well, here's what we're looking at. jon references at the top of the show there was a tremendous amount of activity in the front month call options in igt today and obviously the entire gaming space has seen quite a lot of bullish activity over the course of the last month and a half or so. however, one thing i would caution investors on is just following on with whatever action you see and just buying front month options willy-nilly like that can sometimes be tempting but isn't necessarily always profitable. what i'm taking a look at is a slightly longer play. i'm looking at the july 21-23 call spread, and what i'm looking at is doing is buying the july 21 calls, paying 75 cents for those and selling the 23s against them for a quarter net net. i pay about 50 cents, which is less than the stock was actually up today. a couple of reasons i'm looking at this stranlt. one is it gives me a little more time for a bullish thesis to play out. the second thing of course is sometimes if there is a deal, i'm not saying there is going to be one, we have no idea if that's true or not, but sometimes volatility that is the premium in options can get sucked out in that kind of case.
that's why spreads can be appealing. >> joe? >> i like the strategy. igt has clearly bottomed. we've talked about it on the show. it's now moving to the up side. i just go back to mike and say is there i a way you could get slightly more aggressive in the near term based on this momentum you and i both recognize that the stock has right now approaching 20 almost? >> well, certainly one of the things is that most of the options in this name are actually pretty surprisingly cheap given how high the options premiums are in some of the other namds in the gamin space and obviously the fact that there is chatter in this one. so could you in that case look to do just an untied call option. that's one way to play. you like to play a somewhat more conservative strategy. that's why i picked the spread. >> i like mike's strategy. i was doing the same thing, mike. i was on the trade monster thing just now, looking at my position. i bought the calls, sold the calls above it. i think like he said you can set yourself up to triple your money by july. how do you not like that? >> i like mike's strategy but i want to swing a little more for the fences on this one. >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much for that. you can catch mike and of course the other traders at 5:30 on
friday for more "options acti " action." don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back after the break on cnbc. bull market or bear, traders are always hungry for ideas. so, i start my trading day with td ameritrade's morning perspective. this is key. and look at this. pattern matcher. spots technical patterns automatically. this is what i need. look at that head and shoulders right there. it's like pattern x-ray vision. it's like, uh, a pattern radar. shouldn't you be trading with td ameritrade? that's an idea. this is such the edge. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days, plus get 100 dollars cash, when you open an account. sure, but let me get a little information first. for broccoli, say one. for toys, say two. toys ! the system can't process your response at this time. what ? please call back between 8 and 5 central standard time. he's in control. goodbye.
welcome back to "fast money" live from times square in new york. for the better part of last year if you bought a stock, almost any stock after march, it went up. but now the bull market is starting to fracture, with more than 20% of the s&p down on the year. the question is if we're headed for a stock picker's market what are two ways to make money right now? hillary kramer manages half a billion dollars for a & g capital. she also writes for "game changer stocks.com. hillary, there are two criteria for you, aren't there? they're is it undervalued as a stock and importantly is there a catalyst for change near term? >> that's absolutely right. that's how i do it. it's about finding undervalued stocks in a market that's overextended like this one is. so one of the companies that i own is super media. it's spmd. this is an undervalued stock, unknown, under the radar because it came out of bankruptcy in january 2010. it used to be known as idierk,
as a matter of fact. they publish yellow pages but they're also internet-based too, but they are super undervalued. 2.5 times cash flow they're trading. their p/e is 4. and they're going to do $2.1 billion in sales. but what i like best about supermedia is the largest shareholder is john paulson. and as a manager of money i always want to know what john paulson owns. and being -- >> how much do you think you can make on this? >> i think easily it's 25% up side. so you're clearly talking about 50. but over the long term much more than that as they really initiate more sales on the internet-based electronic part of publishing. and remember, the street hasn't bought it. no one even covers it. just one company right now. >> we've been through this sort of thing before and you're bearish. >> well, this is the kind of company that we think of as a melting ice cubish as i'm sure you're aware. so when i think about the revenue right now, i have to think about where's it really going to be? and these kinds of businesses have had extreme deterioration. so i've been burned by melting
ice cubes. so why is this different than that? >> because you have 10% growth coming from the internet-based. the superpages.com -- >> the more traditional -- >> well, that's already built into the stock. that's already factored in there. certainly the revenue's going to drop. the cash flow this year. but i really have a lot of faith in the management that they're going to bring up the -- >> give me another stock if you would. >> absolutely. dendreon, dndn. i love dendreon. i have a position in dendreon. i believe dendreon is a triple in the next 18 months, absolutely. and this quarter alone we're going to see dendreon at the very least be up above $50. dendreon is a biotech company that has a prostate cancer vaccine that's due to be decided upon by the fda around may 1st. now, if this is approved, which i believe it will, it's the second round for dendreon, then this stock is going to fly. and every company that's in the biotech space is going to want to partner with them or acquire dendreon. it's a blockbuster drug,
provenge. >> exactly right. i think just like she's saying you wait just a little bit. i mean, you could buy it right here. i'm waiting for a little bit of a pullback before that fda trial -- not trial. before the fda results. and when that thing comes, i do think the stock could see the 40s pretty easily. >> i'm like the fool in the room again. isn't there a big if there? >> no. >> not now. >> it's got efficacy proof with the fda. >> right. >> it's also been safety certified by the fda. so this is really not a foregone conclusion, but now it will finally come to market rather than just being used in compassionate use. >> the key here is it extends life by four months. placebos versus provenge show 40% more survival rate. and there's no way the nd is going to turn down a stock that's -- >> i think what you have to start doing is taking timmy's title. that's his title. the fool in the room. >> thank you, simon. simon's a gentleman. here i am throwing the joke back at him and he's complimenting me. now i feel terrible.
>> thanks very much. hillary kramer there. so who is also, we should say, author of "ahead of the curve." and she'll be back with month-two more trades later in the week. >> that's right. >> excellent. thank you very much. time for "pops and drops." the movers you may have missed to date. let's kick off with a pop for chip name cree, up 10%. joe. >> love this name. energy efficiency. we talked about it on "fast money" halftime today. if you're long the stock you stay long 72.40. what you don't do is chase it here or sell it short. >> refiner tesoro down 6% today. >> with oil going to 90 bucks it's ep names and refiners starting to get brutalized because of this accident they had in washish, terrible tragedy but the stock being beaten down too much this is an opportunity. >> monster worldwide down 2% today. jon. >> yeah, glad it wasn't this monster, the option monster. this was worldwide. and the problem here was goldman sachs. they came out, cut the estimates. they donate like them before. they had them at neutral. they went to sell on it today. watch out for this one.
mww. >> and finally, a pop for harry winston, up 11% tay. karen. >> thank you for giving me harry winston. i appreciate that. >> with good reason. >> very good reason. analysts were just more optimistic on the stock today. it's a little rich for my blood, actually. >> okay. let's do one more. harley-davidson getting an 11% bounce today. patty, have you got a harley up there? >> no. as a matter of fact, i don't. but the engines on this thing seem to be revving. that being said, they have had meaningful improvement in sales according to one analyst. i've got to say they needed that meaningful improvement, and i am not going to pay 28 times for something growing at 9%. no, thank you. >> love the stock. but they tipped us off two weeks ago with unusual option buying in harley. >> short covering. >> yeah. >> more "fast money" up after the break. stay with us on cnbc.
year. more recently up 4% only, notably lagging the s&p 500. so are those infamous bric countries, the world's growth engines, starting to stall as an investment? it's time to go trading the globe, where all this week we're talking to the biggest fund managers in the emerging world, and tonight will landers of blackrock joins us. he manages $8 billion in latin america. and importantly, we want to talk to you, bill, about brazil. there is a lot of chatter now that perhaps things are beginning to top out on brazil. there's a lot of headway potentially moving forward. how do you feel about it? >> i think the underperformance in the first quarter had really not much to do with brazil but it was more regarding overall global risk appetite. when you look at the brazilian story itself fundamentals continue to get better, employment is improving, they're just in on their second round of government investments on the infrastructure side. you still have the world cup and olympics people got excited about just to start going in terms of investments with that.
and on top of that you also have good news on the commodities side. a lot of the brazilian market is commodity related. it's not what we're most excited about but i think it's also where you have good up side. >> let's get to nap will, hey, it's tim. is this a commodity story or a domestic story? what people don't know is brazil's economy is mostly generated and derived from domestic consumption. so do i want to buy the banks? banko santender, one of the biggest ipos last year. or is it really -- am i going back to ethanol, coson and vale. give me your picks and is it still valuation time a place to own sneeze. >> brazil is about the domestic economy. when you look at exports last year, they represented only 11% of gdp. i think the united states is the only country that has less exports as a percentage of their overall economy. so we're very excited about the domestic economy. i think with the banks i still prefer itauni over banco santender. we like the home building side quite a bit.
cyrela. we've been adding to both over the first quarter because we don't think it's justified and the valuations look good. brazil we have it trading 12 times 2010 earnings which is still in the bottom half of valuations. given everything that's gone on and brazil has had a chance to prove itself over the last two years i don't think brazil deserves to trade at the bottom half of the global trade. >> it's been such a great time for brazilian companies to come to mary-kate think that's one of the things that held it back. i agree -- >> i just want to break up the party if i may. sorry. forgive me, will. what hams if they raise interest rates more rapidly than people are assuming? what happens if the presidential election goes the wrong way and you don't get someone to keep with market reforms? the jury's out on a lot of things. maybe as a trade but not surely as an investment for two or three years. >> look, the lead candidate for the brazilian election is -- sao paolo represents a third of the brazilian economy. if brazil's doing something
right sao paolo has to be going well. and his party started this recovery. there's no reason for him to come in and mess with what's going on from an economic, fiscal standpoint. the current chief of staff just stepped out last week, stepped down. she's been involved with every decision taken during the lula administration as well. i don't see really a room for a lot of changes there. >> okay. i hear you, will. thanks for joining us. nice to meet you. >> thank you. >> we'll look with renewed interest at brazil. right. it's time for the cold calling segment of the program that apparently is sweeping the nation. one trader, one stock, 30 seconds to make the case or else they'll get a dial tone. so jon najarian gives us the pitch. jon. >> simon, for the last 40 years the iron ore producers have been fixing the cost of iron ore right at the beginning of the year for an annual basis. well, that was great for people that are turning that iron ore into steel like the asian steel makers. and for carmakers over in europe. it was not so good -- >> 15.
quick. >> not so good for u.s., however. but now they have raised prices dramatically. in fact, it's up -- the spot is up over $150 per metric ton right now. so what do you do? the play is domestic -- >> you're over. you're out of time. >> i'm not hearing any dinging. [ buzzer ] >> there. >> he called you out. >> he got you. >> he cut me off early! the bottom line is that the iron ore producers are charging a lot more for iron ore per ton right now. instead of 68 bucks a ton now it's over 150 a ton. but domestically you can get it for a lot cheaper than that and that favors -- >> i'm a buyer. >> i own ak steel. >> it's the domestic automakers too which you were trying to say pf you were cut off and i like it. >> it's time for the "fast money" poll of the day. tonight's question, are you buying jon's ak steel pitch? is the answer a, no thanks. b, i'm sold. log on to fastmoney.cnbc.com right now to vote. more "fast money," back in a moment.
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the deal further pushes sandridge, which is a natural gas player, into the crude oil business. was today's deal a billion-dollar no vote of confidence in the future of natural gas as an industry and natural gas prices in particular? here to set the record straight, tom ward, the ceo of sandridge. he joins on the "fast line." sir, good evening. was it a big no vote for your own industry? >> good evening, simon. it is not necessarily a no vote for the industry as much as it is a move to be more balanced for oil and gas. that's what our company has been attempting to do that over the last couple of years. >> mr. ward, it's joe. the administration's policy on energy dependence going forward, when we look at what you did today, could i suggest that maybe you believe natural gas is not in the equation going forward? >> well, it's not so much in my opinion the administration as much as the competition from bg,
bp, devon, exxonmobil, mitzi, stat oil, total, all of these very large majors and international companies that want to now invest in natural gas, i see that competition over a long period of time continuing to create -- >> mr. ward, forgive me. we're very tight on time. tofsh forgive me, sir. you said two years ago you didn't particularly like the dynamics in gas and you were going to look elsewhere. why now has this deal come through? i mean, is there a sudden deterioration sentiment that has pushed you toward being able to agree to a deal at this premium? take me through the dynamic, if you would, sir. >> sure. over the course of the last couple of years there's been shale drilling in natural gas, as you know, and those wells tend to bring on a large amount of natural gas early on in the life of the well. it doesn't speak to the economics of them because they cost more. but they do bring on a lot of gas. we were hedged $8.59 last year and $9.17 this year. but we wanted to be more
balanced to go into the future for oil. >> mr. ward, we've run out of time. thank you so much for your time. tom ward there joining us on that $1.6 billion -- >> and real quick on this we've talked on the show about natural gas not being the play right now. and i still don't believe it is. i think it's an oil play right now. that's how you get your energy exposure. >> more to go. final trade after the break. what starts out as an innocent family dinner
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okay. time for the final trades. tim. >> integrated oil has lagged. t.o.t. >> joe. >> i'm short estee lauder. >> karen. >> i like best buy. bby. >> jon? >> lowe's. love the action in this one today. >> that's it. that's "fast money" for this monday evening. see you next time. (announcer) roundup extended control does two jobs... at once. one: kills weeds to the root. two: forms a barrier,
i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> firms are going to go out of business, and he's nuts! they're nut! th they know nothing! >> i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere -- >> "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. welcome back! other people want to make friends. no, thank you. i'm just trying to make you some shekels, dinars, and all the other countries i visited. my job is not just to entertain but to educate. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. oh, man. the bears, the bears, they are on the run! they are being chased into oblivion. dashing out onto i-95 and
getting smashed by 18-wheelers! the highways are littered with former yogis and booboos and gentle bens, now turned into delicious road kill. and the rest are being run down by off-road vehicles in america's national parks. that's what happened again, with the dow rising 46 points, the s&p 500 climbing almost a full percentage. what a run this is, huh? you know why? it's because there are very few bear markets left to hide in. i mean, look at the ratio here. this is pretty much the ratio, right? let's get rid of these guys. there. let me ask you something. i'll ask this guy in particular. does a bear get steamrolled in the woods? do you even have to ask? anyway, what's putting these kodiaks on the endangered species list? possibly replacing the snail darter if not the spackled grouse. to help you understand how strong this market is, let me tell you about something i do on weekends for recreation