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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  January 31, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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improvement there is in the sector is not going to be linear. it is going to be a tough slog for months and years to come probably, rick. thanks. that does it for us here. as we hit noon, time for "the fast money halftime report." thanks so much. here's where we stand right now on wall street. interesting day today. you've got the dow jones industrials giving back 71.5 or thereabout. the s&p 500 and nasdaq in negative territory. golden cross today, bullish for stocks or technical mum bo jumbo? major buzz kill today. if you take a look at what's happening -- actually, best buy, radioshack and amazon. which of the brick and mortar stores are best positioned to deal with online retailers? super bowl trash talk is heating up this week but which athletic gear stocks are poised to win? we'll trade it with a top analyst.
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welcome to the "fast money halftime report." the s&p briefly hitting a golden cross. but we're now at session lows. do you buy the golden cross as a bullish sign? or as it as i said, mumbo yum bo? >> not necessarily but you had to come in to the yearlong and right now, you have to be cautious. you had the apple earnings. knock it out of the park. federal reserve. risk on the trade and you just can't seem to extend the rally. and i think one of the reasons why is you can't get the rotation out of bonds. we need that and we're not -- >> i tell you why you can't get. you have a day with the pmi, confidence and kay shiller coming in weaker than expected, that's why you can't extend the rally. >> pmi still growing growth and not a recession their area. you know? consumer confidence came in below what we expected but i think joe's right here. we are not in a market like it's
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been for 15, 10 or 20 years where the golden cross signals worked. you don't know how the market's going to react so to get in the market here, i don't think i'd be buying more here today on a golden cross signal. >> euro weakening. perhaps weighing on the market, as well. patty edwards, where do you see things today? >> look at when you're looking at. you have a 4% return for the month. i'm with the guys. i don't think that you can get overly long at this point in time. in fact, i would be hedging a little bit going in to what i think could be a little bit weak with the european news coming out over the next two days. >> are you positive on stocks? >> you know, i am. first of all, the world's worst indicator is consumer confidence, meaning it tells you so little and seems to tell you so much because it doesn't tell you what consumers will do and sure doesn't tell you what
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stocks will do but grabs the headlines coming out every month. on patty's point of a 4% run, depends on whether the market continues to be a traders' market and people rotate, take the gains, hedge their positions or whether it's going to be more of a fundamental investor market. we have had decent fund flows from institutional although by no means great fund flows so i'm still on the side of i think we're returning or at least we seem to have been in more of a stock picking market of investing rather than a trading market and doesn't leave me nearly concerned about the trading reaction to a 4%. >> but you don't want a disappointing jobs report at the end of the week, zach, because you're worrying about the momentum that we seemingly have had this month being killed coupled with the data of today. >> yeah. i think the data is much less significant. the jobs report and cautious and probably be short some puts
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ahead of that. i mean long some s&p puts ahead of that for protection because you're right. if that's bad, that could be a deflation their sign for the market. >> a couple of things real quick. number one, on the golden cross, works better in individual stocks and economic data is concerned. goldman sachs this morning took out the forecast for tomorrow. i caution everyone right now, look at yesterday's low on the s&p index. if we get below 1300 you have traced out what's known as an outside down reversal. that's a bearish sign. you have to watch that this afternoon. >> let's move on to the buzz kill of the day and calling radioshack today. the shares falling off a cliff after warning fourth quarter earnings well below analysts' expectations blaming wireless provider sprint for that sho shortfall. how about that? running over sprint, backing up and running over it again today. >> that would be like a clothing
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retailer blaming the designer that they bought a little bit of their stuff for. i'm sorry. man up. you made choices of how you were running the show. man up. you were the one that made the decision. not sprint. >> no, but i mean, look. if they have trouble moving sprint phones, you know, that's an an issue. >> it is. >> i don't know if at and t and verizon, the prospects are selling better than the sprint ones. that's an issue. >> it is absolutely an issue. and the stock is incredibly cheap at this point in time. trading like -- >> you are not buying it? >> oh, heck no! >> how do you really feel, patty? >> i don't buy anything on take-out speculation but on an enterprise measure it's 2.3 times. i can't explain that. take-out value is probably closer to five times and incredibly cheap. would best buy maybe buy this to just to get the store front? it's a possibility but obviously
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best buy hasn't been interested up until now. >> do you see a reason to own the shares? >> i haven't in a long time. i don't understand the business model with radioshack here. one, i know some people that buy the little switches but they tend to be the rocket scientists of the world. otherwise, you have a company that hitched the wagon to sprint that has had a tough time competing, as well. there's no catalyst to make the shares go higher. >> raymond james downgrading the stock and cite or many analysts on the street this mother-in-lawimother-in-law i morning talking about merchandising and you have problems. >> i think the biggest concern for radioshack is the contraction you saw in gross margins down 14% year on year and makes the likelihood of a shack-izition far less likely. >> make a pit stop. oil losing steam below 99 bucks
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a barrel. what is the trade from here? let's bring in dan dicker. dan, you know, if you look at the price of crude, as long as iran remains in the conversation, do you have a floor under crude at this point that it's just going to sit around this $100 range? >> yeah. i think you're right, scott. part of that is not just iran. part of that has been the fed targeting inflation and how that must have gotten asset manager around the globe to take a look at hard assets. we see it in gold. certainly seeing that in oil. you get that today where you get another rumor of perhaps another greek deal. on private debt and you have this thing off to the races. and then we had a report just a couple of minutes ago, a half ago, opec is pumps more than they have since october of 2008. so the -- it's clear that the market is very, very well supplied here. they said so this morning. and then the market this morning
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are two things. the iranians who are making a very serious threat about preemptively stopping european flow to greece and particularly italy. and this financial motion that's clearly coming in, again, to hard assets, particularly oil and i think you are right. we have established when's a relative floor under oil. >> real quick, dan's spot-on here. you have linear production and just announced 925,000 barrels per day. that's well ahead of where we thought we would be at this point but, dan, does the mind-set now shift to more exposure in terms of defensive energy plays? >> well, you will have someone on talking about exxon. this is the perfect, perfect discussion of a defensive energy play. the only reason it's outperformed to the drillers or oil service stocks is because of the buy back. it's a search for yield, a substitution of oil stocks, a lot of stocks that pay dividend for fixed income investments
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that have kept those stocks pretty high. i don't find they're particularly compelling play and continue to be strong as long as they continue to pay the dividends. >> what is your best play right now? does it come from the integrated space or the drilling space or the refining space? >> i believe that the oil services sector has a way to catch up to what's been the incredibly sticky price at $100 here and $110 internationally. so those that have international exposure are the ones you want, particularly weatherford. my problem with weatherford is i'm pretty suspicious of them that has the price creeps up closer to $20 they do a secondary that's a careful hold. you want the oil drilers, the service companies with international exposure where the growth is. >> yeah. grasso sold out of the weatherford today. why should you stay in it? >> i think that's -- you know, he's doing it for the reason i say. incredibly undervalued but be suspicious of the swiss. they seem to do this getting to a reasonable number without
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warning. transocean did it, too. it's a careful hold. you have to be a little bit careful to hold them here. >> danneddanned, good to have y the show, as always. what do you do with these? >> i'm struck by how stable the price of oil is and doesn't seem to be anything -- pretty static global economy to change that. i happen to agree on the oil services names. they certainly have underperformed what seems to be pretty, you know, decent ongoing business and, you know, when you see that, you tend to want to be in them. >> maybe stays that way. if the global economy isn't robust to raise demand and lift the price, you have the iran issue putting the floor under and the pocket of oil sitting in for some time. >> service names, a decent few weeks and you feel like they don't have a lot lower to go.
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i don't know when that pop happens on the upside and seems like the price of oil, we have a floor here. >> yeah. let's get a trade update now from joe. overweight to the energy space. why are you doing that? >> i think in terms of price action, now seeing libya come back online, chinese stepping back, not being physical buyers, i think it is time to take some profits. we were out of exxonmobil last week. really just right own occidental and i think vulnerable in the spot price of oil. >> we have chinese pmi. if that comes out better, does that change your mind? >> no. what matters is the traders i hear about the chinese physically doing in terms of buying oil and less of that in the last ten days. coming up, breaking down exxon earnings and a trader making a big move on rim. an update on that just after the break.
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welcome back. let's take a look at the financials now. turning positive on the day.
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the strongest sector in the s&p 500, there it is. when's the trade here? >> i mean i think joe pointed out goldman sachs. one, making a new high for the day. this is what you want to follow. this is for the market is very bullish. if you can get the financials going, if you can get some of the exposure, any uncertainty around europe out of the way, this is the place to be. >> problem is the stocks have been going, right? by some account maybe too much to keep going. >> yes. perhaps. by some account. but i think the only news to come out is probably more catalyst positive for the financials because you have a european situation that's resolving. you have a federal reserve trying to get the economy going again and the market trades on, you know, it discounts the futures so that's why you want to be in the financials. >> only catalyst negative is lack of revenue growth prospects for the banks. >> you stay away from the regionals and maybe the trade -- >> stay away from regionals? >> stay away regionals and i
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think the trade passed for the regionals and the bank of americas and the cities. i think brian is saying and i agree to is it's a capital market recovery and that's why goldman and morgan stanley and kce, the etf and jeffries and janus that's a more favorable trade. >> you're talking about something that was the weak link. >> yes. >> for the banks. now you're seeing a paradigm shift for the banks, perhaps. everybody on the show said buy the regional banks, you're the first person to come on here saying stay away from them. >> i was one of them saying buy the regional banks but now it's a matter of shifting the chips in essence. okay. the opportunity's past in the regionals. now a name like goldman sachs breaking out here as we talk. >> i'm still long the regionals. i think there's a play there. look what's happened. a couple broker dealers.
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when you look at some of the names, now you have fewer players out there and you at least have that potential for actual markets. >> i don't have buffett's balance sheet. i trade everything. i hear ya. talk about exxon losing the status as the largest company in the world. the company narrowly beat street expectations. joining us to break down the results, an analyst. faisel, gooed to have you on the show. >> sure. >> barely a beat where you have oil prices rising, what does exxon do when oil prices go down? >> just like any commodity stock, they'll be impacted. but the impact of lower oil prices has a, you know, a lower affect on the overall earnings as other companies in the group. >> what's the issue here? right? i mean, if you look at what's
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weighing exxon down, is the integration not going as well? you are in an obvious, difficult environment for natural gas. i guess you can say at this point that's not paid off yet. >> not really. what's going on right now today, the stock's down 2.2% is the reflection of the adjustable earnings number. asset sale gains and really 185 so, you know, while it looks like they beat the street by two pennies taking out the gain, it looks like numbers were lower. so, you know, that's versus the street and our number and right in line. people may have been expecting higher production in europe. may have not accounted for the asset sales they made in the third and fourth quarter and driving the expectations in the stock. >> you want to get in here? >> yeah. is there any reason to own exxon relative to all of the other things you can be in in the energy space? it used to be the proxy, the bell weather, throw in another
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cliche. now it just seems big. >> it is big. that's the largest market cap in the energy space and always going to be the defensive sort of name. if you looking for more of an inflection point in the market and the economy. >> you are saying still buy the stock? >> yeah, absolutely. this is a -- this stock will continue to generate on capital in the group so it's a disciplined sort of strategy that they employ over a long period of time. so as an investor, absolutely, this is something we believe in. >> highest returns in the sense of dividend what you get in terms of cash back, not in terms of stock appreciation. >> no. returns on capital employed so they're buying back roughly $20 billion of stock every year. talking about buying back 5% of the stock every year and 2.2% dividend and a legacy portfolio that generates some of the hi highehig highest margins in the group. >> is it a top pick in the
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group? >> it is not, no. in the group there are refining sector is our top pick. >> interesting. okay. good to have you on the show. >> sure. >> you raised your eyebrows a little bit with alero. >> it is interesting with talk today there may be a strike in the refining area. i don't think that happens. they talked about the contingency play. it's surprising me a little bit. i like exxonmobil right down here. as much as i like apple, when's more valuable. an ipad or a full tank of gas? >> how about the valero pick? that's surprising. >> no interest in valero, as well. mid continent. those names i talked about. westin refining. >> why not the refining? the spread that you don't like. >> it's the spread and the spread, again, you know, it remains somewhere around 12 bucks and that's a pricing level
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favorable for -- >> talk okay research in motion. coming off a 14% rise this year. contributor steve weiss is long the stock. no more, though. let's get a trade update. he joins us. weiss, you bailed, huh? >> hey, judge. yes, i did. very, very good trade. got in twice the market rush so far this year on it and decided it was time to leave. the important thing of trading is sitting on the desk knows you don't turn trades in to investments because you fall in love with them. it was time to go. >> you don't have a conviction to make a difference to turn around the lumbering ship that fast or what? >> no. that's not it. i bought it because the -- just hit the crescendo and i did the same thing with hewlett-packard and very profitable trade and when the hate is so palpable and not one positive comment on the street, and i think that the
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company's actually a real company with prospects, that's when i take a look. so that's how i got in to rimm. at this point, what a lot of traders misunderstand is that when somebody files on a stock, particularly an insider, as we saw with fairfield financial, you can count on the fact that nothing's going to happen near term because they're insiders and they can't trade inside information so when fairfield filed, a board member regarded by himself as the warren buffett of canada with a tremendous long-term track record, he doubled the position, sits on the board and told me nothing's happening with near term. i thought it was time to just book the trade, book the profit and get out. >> i think heinz said nothing will happen in the short term at the very least and perhaps -- what you're alluding to. >> steve, i appreciate and respect the gumption of getting in to the name but i would say you've got to be careful of just because everyone hates it
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doesn't mean it's not a good reason to hate it. you wouldn't have piled in to palm or done very well, you know, investing in nokia as it was falling and not sure to jump in to radioshack here so you do have to appreciate some level of fundamentals to make the call you made. >> yeah. that's absolutely correct, zach. except this i thought was just -- i think it's a real company. they have prospects and very cheap. >> you make the point in the note today, stephen, to consider to buy it again. >> i'll be back in the name. >> talk to you soon. >> thanks, judge. next up, as the greek debt deal inches closer is the currency trade about to change? we'll tell you what the smart money is doing when we come back. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look
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welcome back. want to show you financials again. there's citigroup. noticing that the financials turn going positive. really, the highs of the day. show goldman sachs, too. >> very, very strong volume
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accompanying the move higher which is positive. >> 2 plus percent higher. 25 of 27 europe countries agreed on a permanent rescue fund for the euro zone. from george davis, chief technical analyst. george, give us your best guess on where to expect the euro to head from here given the developments we expect to come out of the euro zone in the next day or few. >> well, i think over the next couple of days we could see a little bit of a push higher, perhaps up towards the 133, 133.5 level on optimism about an agreement with the regard to the greek psi deal but at that point i think the bias is still going to be overall to fade rallies in the euro because i think as these various agreements and bailouts work their way through the euro zone economy that austerity will cause a severe slowdown and a drag on the euro.
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so i think the overall bias is to fade rallies in the euro. >> is the positive news we expect built in at 131, 130 and change looking at right now? >> i think to a certain extent it is. over the last couple of weeks we have seen a good appreciation in the euro and a lot of that has been on anticipation of a positive outcome with regard to the negotiation so i agree. i think that there is a lot of good news built in to the price right now. >> what is your trade today? >> in terms of the trade for today, plays off the euro zone theme and the growth outlook. the trade is a sterling strateg measures work through the economy, we're going to see a drag on growth. we're predicting flat growth this year and in the uk progressing quite a ways through the cycle with respect to
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austerity and looking for 1% growth there. >> what are your levels? what are you levels on that trade? >> to sell corrective rallies to 8450 in euro sterling and a stop loss above 8625. >> got it. george, thanks so much. george davis. what do you think of that? >> you know what, i would prefer to be short the british pound. they have to do some massive que in britain. >> time now for pops and drops. the movers might not be on your radar. sandisk. >> just like the outlook, lousy. the line in the sand, 200-day moving average of 45 bucks. i'm long. >> ups is down. 1%. >> they had pretty good earnings today. a pop and now a drop. at 74.84, that's the bottom of a nice trend line and channel. i'd be buying it right in here. >> fcx, zach? >> although it's now almost not
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dropping so it went down with a price of copper. you know, if you believe in the global growth story blah blah blah you have to be in freeport to reflect this. >> mattel, 5% popping, patty? patty? mattel. >> barbie and ken are dancing in the dream house right now. earnings better than expected. the dividend got a major hike. this is one i own. this is one i'll continue to own. i have a $35 price target on it. >> stop tweeting and pay attention, patty. up next, should you get out of amazon ahead of the earnings report this afternoon? we are trading the race of athletic gear makers. [ male announcer ] we know you don't wait
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certified. international. and the mailman picks it up. i don't leave the shop anymore. [ male announcer ] get a 4-week trial plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to and never go to the post office again. welcome back. let's hit another buzz kill today. shares of best buy trading much lower. is it a risk of going the way of radioshack? wow. patty edwards, look at that chart. it is ugly. >> it's absolutely ugly. the stores are too big. they have to fix this. i throw out once again the theory of perhaps taking over radioshack and use the stores for a smaller footprint.
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>> i don't want to talk about best buy. we know the story. a few hours to trade. amazon, perfect segue, right? the numbers due after the bell. this is a sell rating on the stock and says amazon can lose money this quarter. welcome back to the show, collin. >> hey, scott. >> isn't it possible to have come with a big surprise, sold more kindles than we expect and they be more profitable than you and the rest of wall street thinks? >> entirely possible. particularly with amazon. >> the world could end tomorrow. that's possible, too. let's give it more credibility that theory, right? come on. >> i trade that, scott. what you want to do is be aware of the more kindles sell, the more the net income is hurt because the way they're sharing share is price. they're likely losing $20 a unit on every kindle fire they sell
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and estimating makes less than one tenth of a penny on every dollar of revenue and the more kindles, the more operating income is hurt. >> go ahead. >> collin, i know you've been negative on amazon and right about the issues. we siee it happening with best buy and barnes & noble stock. in what they do they not go in the direction they're going, dominate senior citizctors? >> that's the bookcase. more accepting of the low markets. making less than half a penny on every dollar, how can you compete against that and seeing the landscape littered with people not able to compete against amazon. the concern here is if you start to see revenue growth slowing down and stop putting out the sort of north of 40% revenue growth numbers, remember, they are the leader in digital books but they're playing catch up in
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digital movies and music. it's netflix and apple arguably in the digital side so they do have some ground to catch up on. >> collin, do i have to worry about the same thing that i heard from ebay, the same that i heard from google. international sales slow down, particularly in europe? >> sure, of course you do. right? if you're the -- the trend is not the friend for revenue for the multinationals with exposure in europe. so what you have to balance out is the tail winds coming from e-commer e-commerce. it's going well versus hearing commentary from the other companies related to the space an it's not positive. plus we're looking for an increase of $8 billion in revenue for amazon. you know, that's a pretty big number. >> collin, you are looking at a company that seems to be, you know, trading -- i guess if you will, short-term profit pain for long-term gain. right? spending a lot of money,
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building out certain things, obviously. more distri bus cebution center. at what point is that a problem? >> so this is the thing, scott, right? is amazon a discount retailer at the heart? absolutely. will they ever get an operating margin north of 10%? i don't see that happening this decade. even putting a 10% operating margin on the current numbers the stock is very expensive stock and by the nature of what they have, of course, we like amazon. i'm an avid user. but the -- i'll probably pay more for that convenience and not that much more and determine where that elasticity is and the fulfillment of shipping costs continue to rise. >> patty? >> you know, this is one of those where i look at the kindle, collin, if they sold a whole bunch of them, people loading them with books. isn't this a fairly decent margin for them and going to drive a lot of sales?
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>> so, you know, in terms of what they're doing on that strategy, you know, on the kindle, yes. it is driving sales. of books. no doubt about it. but we don't see much traction of music or movies yet and trying to play catch up on and interesting statistics for the kindle versus the barnes & noble nook and users are consuming more free content. sucking down free books available, as well. >> collin, what is your kindle estimate unit for the quarter? >> 4.5 million fires. >> some people speculating 6. do you change your sell? >> here's the thing, scott. you're paying a big premium for the company. and you know what? whether i'm right by 4.5 or 6, no one will know. it's unlikely to break out those numbers for us. the lack of disclosure for this company is a major issue. they don't tell us how many fires, the profitability, how many prime customers there are so some point if you're paying a big premium, you should want more disclosure.
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>> good to have you on the show. we'll have you on again soon. >> thanks. >> are you buying this stock here? >> i'm not. amazon struggled. i traded it poorly in 2011. >> you sound discouraged about it, too. >> i am. when you trade something poorly -- >> buck up. >> you get discouraged about it but hearing concerns about the sales growth in europe and amazon has to spend a lot of money for their cloud initiative and i think the margin story has now changed. i don't know the changes any time back to more favorable. >> yeah, i mean, i'm modestly and long some calls. i hear collin's point. i just think if you're jeff bezus, amazon, you have a kind of dominating the world retail strategy that is many, many years longer than the quarterly cycle of stock investors and that's a mismatch that obviously can hurt the stock. i don't think it hurts the company necessarily. >> talk about broadcom.
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what's the trade on the chip maker given apple's blow-out numbers with record iphone and ipad shipments? joet.? >> i'm more excited and have more confidence. yes. >> front-runner, i understand. >> he just called me a front-runner. >> i think he did. >> that's something we never say that. >> you know what i mean. the stocks up 19% year to date. >> it is. >> looks good. >> coming off the bottom. you're correct. what we heard from the iphone and understanding that the bluetooth and wi-fi chip from broadcom, this should be an excellent quarter. one thing to concern yourself with, historically the guidance for the next quarter, this is when their operating expenses -- you are laughing -- tend to rise and i think the bottom for broadcom. it is a name that you can own. >> i realize saying front-runner in this environment can be
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dangerous. >> yes. >> however -- he knows what i'm talking about. >> i tell you what, though. what concerns me about broadcom is what happened with joe. made money on the trade. already up. seen since december, analysts increased estimates and not sure how much juice is left in there. i would wait for a pullback. if they miss estimates, stock could be crushed just on missing estimates. >> what do you do? >> this is the interesting reality and the chart shows it. broadcom is consistently disappointing in their earnings reports and in the degree to which you would think they're capturing what is inarguably a profound trend of wireless and the build on everything we talked about. i have been long this name. i lost money in this name. i still think the odds seem to suggest they're going to make money in this space because the space is making so much money but i'm cautious because every quarter i have thought that and it's been wrong and i hope joe's right and i'm right.
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>> are you finished? >> yeah. >> we'll be on youtube. >> yeah. i'm sure we will. the race to dominate the athletic gear is on. a top analyst is betting underarmour will top expectations. sean, welcome to the program. >> thanks, guys. >> not concerned of inventories as some people are, warm weather hurting, margin pressures persisting, competition with nike, et cetera. >> i'm concerned about all of that. when you have a stock with that information out, but still shows a lot of fundamental strength, that's when you -- it's a straw hats in winter strategy. you buy them when there's head winds. i think it's temporary. the margin pressure is -- when it was telegraphed quarters in advance because of purchases of last year and, you know, weather smeather. i think the guys are highly
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dependent on a season. they got new products, new materials. opening up new markets around the world. i wait for pullbacks and made money in the name is waiting for the pullbacks. been an expensive stock. >> patty edwards, what are you doing with under armour here? >> it's been a one i've stayed away from. i like nike better with better momentum and got a cheaper valuation. tell me why i should make a switch from one to the other? >> no doubt the valuation looks more attractive for a lot of names but a company growing direct consumer business very rapidly and will pay off in higher margins eventually. just penetrating a lot of markets just outside the u.s. and growth potential is far better than it is here. there's still putting up more than respectable numbers and in terms of conservative guidance, looking back the last several of years, guidance of reporting the fourth quarter is conservative and wind up crushing it by 10 percentage points on sales and
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more than that on operating margins so i think you buy it when the guidance seems to be disappointing. >> good to have you on the program. talk to you again soon. >> thank you. >> zach, are you a buyer of under armour, nike or both? >> absolutely with nike. also, nike, the whole global and china story. although it's interesting both performed quite well. i think i'm -- nike at a 52-week highs and i think continues to go higher. up next, how should you play the rally in emerging market stocks? we're heading to russia for that trade. people with a machine.
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what ? customers didn't like it.
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welcome back. global business and economic leaders are meeting in moscow today for a conference called the russia forum. our tim seymour runs an equity fund. also founder of emerging he's there and joins us on the fast line. timmy, welcome to the show. >> and part of the fast money family, good to call home, scott. >> pretty good year for the moscow index. pretty good year in general for emerging market stocks. what do you see over in russia today? >> well, first of all, i think emerging stocks are rallying for two reasons. emerging rates coming from around the world. china has a big pmi number.
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it's been about materials and commodities and not the bigger part of the rally. but if china joins in, that's another leg to the rally and outperforming by 6% this year. the backdrop is very strong. >> i was going to ask you if it's sustainable with brazil up 15%. and both have just slightly outpaced the eem. >> well, talk about russia real quick because, you know, i'm up here and freezing. you have a 50-degree day in new york. it's 20 below here. political problems in russia have been a big part of the headlines. election's two months away. putin will win. 45% of the vote is legitimate. no matter what people want to say and rush why's a place -- i met with two companies today, two companies big in russia and globally. trades on the new york. both companies kick it globally, not just in russia. and i think that's kind of the story emerging right now.
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you have companies continuing to grow, have very interesting valuations here because they're blowing up last year and you have a backdrop for growth within the countries and even more. russia looks interesting here. i think the politics are done. >> tim, it's brian. how are you doing, man? >> what's up? >> you talked about the politics there. i mean, if i look at russia, trading let's call it six times forward earnings. one of the cheapest in the em space. are you looking for russia to outperform getting through the election? >> yeah. i think, you know, clearly the next six weeks will have a lot of headline noise. and i don't think that's going to go away. at the end of the day, as i said, if you thought there was a disputed vote count, putin will win in march. there's knob even close and at the end of the day he is i think paying heed to the challenge, real reform. so that's the next leg. i don't think you have to see russia get away from you in the short term. i think a lot of em looks -- be careful from a trader's
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perspective which is what we are on "fast money" with 11% start to the year but yes. i think russia they say vodka is a good warm-up. they have good stuff over there. go find some. >> i will find that, thank you. >> our next trade, adm shrinking to a hent of what it was earlier. competing calls on cf, goldman sachs moving into the bull camp. credit suisse downgrading the stock. how do you play that space? what's going on at adm? ages are good. adm is no good. >> i'm more interested in a name like cf. you get the nitrogen exposure. that is tied to corn prices. corn prices relatively low on the year. i think cf is the name to own in the space.
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one more name that flies relatively under the radar, dar, darling international, you get corn exposure there as well. >> patty, adm making less money in almost all of its major units. >> yeah, that's one of the reasons why i've been staying out of it recently. the play that i've been using has been potash. i've been in syngenta, those are much better places to be. next up, we're answering your tweets when we come back. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894,
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as promised, let's get to some of your tweets now. do you think we will see a 1% yield in the ten-year treasury sometime in 2012, b.k.? >> 2012, i think we get there. whether it be 2012 or not, we might get pretty darn close. i think we're staying at close to 1% for a long time. >> bullish treasuries. >> absolutely. tlt. >> first solar for valentine's day, zach? >> i think first solar is the stock you are best to watch and not to trade. >> radioshack oversold. patty, we've kicked that one around. >> yeah, let's kick it one more time all the way to the curb. if you want to play in there, go ahead but don't spend a lot of time or money with it. >> and i'm not sure if we have it on the board. joey, at over $400 billion market cap, valuation at
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exxonmobil still attractive? >> nice dividend yield, 2.25%. exxonmobil, a name that i stepped out of last week. underneath the market, the problem is, the production, natural gas, that increase, not good. the liquefied stuff, that decreased. that's not the right formula. coming up, final trades. we'll go around the horn with the "halftime" team when we come back. [ male announcer ] we know you don't wait
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until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are,
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[worker 1:] we need to produce our own energy. [announcer:] and, the architect who says... [worker 2:] we need environmental protection. [announcer:] we say, you're right. find out how natural gas answers both at well off session lows as we come back on the "halftime" show here. there's the xlf, certainly moving back in the direction of the highs of the day. take a look at a number of the individual financials. we highlighted citi and goldman sachs. citi was up and goldman sachs was up better than 2%. this is something that you noticed during the program, joe. >> yeah, financials lifting here. it's important. good contribution. financials have been strong for the month of january. i might add american express to
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my position. >> b.k., let me get your thought on some of the super regionals. >> i still think there's a little bit more left in that trade. i understand what joe t. is saying, but kre up to 28, i'm still a buyer. >> let's get to our final trades now. zach, what do you have for us? >> we've talked about both, broadcom and also qualcomm, later this week. >> do you think amazon is going to surprise after the bell to the upside? >> i think collins' points are good. they're going to do whatever they want to do today. >> way to take a position there, zach. >> i'm long the calls. >> patty? >> amazon looks interesting but i wouldn't be putting a lot in there. i would be tip-toeing into nike. >> b.k.? >> xlf. >> and regions, not saying short them. more opportunity ith


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