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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  February 3, 2012 9:00am-12:00pm EST

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florida is going to be the key state. >> thank you for being with us on a very big and happy friday. very good numbers today. can't complain. >> in fact the masht is looking up sharply. you're talking about gains of better than 120 points for the dow. join us on monday. for now "squawk on the street" is going to continue this coverage. good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with melissa lee and jim cramer at the nyse. david faber is back at hq. a monster of a january employment report. the unemployment rate falling 0.2 to 8.3%. taking a look at futures today as you just saw looking like a face ripper here up 121. i'd ask for europe. see if they'll follow our lead. they tend to on jobs fridays. apparently the last eight times the s&p has traded down so we'll see if this holds. >> right. >> and jim cramer has always said be careful of a strong open. >> no surprise our friday road map starts with jobs.
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the market switching gears to risk on in addition to the futures gaining the dollars, oil is ticking higher, gold lower. no surprise. bond prices are lower as well. >> meantime, a story that might have been our lead on any other day tensions brewing with iran. the state's supreme leader saying iran would retaliate over oil sanctions or any threat of attack. now defense secretary panetta concerned of an attack on israel this spring. >> some stocks we're watching this morning, clorox and weyerhauser posting beats. >> martha stewart finds a legal loophole which the company says allows its tieup with j.c. penney to proceed. hear what macy's is now saying about that defense. ouch. it is almost super bowl sunday. we're talking to ceos of buffalo wild wings and dominos pizza and we have a look at some of the ads you'll see during the big game. >> so in case you missed the data about half an hour ago we'll go over some of the particulars of the jobs number.
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well above estimates of 125, the most since last april. december and november job additions are were also revised higher. the unemployment rate down to 8.3% the lowest in nearly two years. and on just about every metric whether you look at average hourly earnings, the work week, jim. >> yeah. >> it crushed it. >> yeah. look. cars, the build is amazing. a good number in january. might be as high as 15 million now. just remember 11, 12 million we thought a couple months ago. oil and gas. industry is on fire. hiring everyone. we got some interesting presentation on monday about north dakota, brian shactman. let's not forget nonresidential construction has been called out by every single company. these employ a lot of people. >> i don't get that. >> we just don't see it. we just see bankers being laid off. >> that's true. we did lose a few in the financial sector for the month. >> yes. >> how do you get around the temptation to be euphoric?
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>> because we've been -- think about where the market's come from. it's been an unbelievable january. february has been great. my first reaction when i see something like this is ah ha. that's why we've been going up all the time. >> right. so is this confirmation of the move we've already seen. >> yes. >> or is this a catalyst for a further move? that is the question. >> i hate up openings. i think it's a confirmation, a great number. it certainly says we were right to rally. there isn't anything in here that says we're right to sell off. it does say, let's digest. >> right. >> single names have been moving up sharply. i know you watch that to a certain extent. it's unclear exactly how much of an impact it has on people's approach to the trading day but we were at low levels and have been moving up every day. i don't know, jim, what that ultimately means in terms of how you approach a day like today but something to keep in mind. >> look, everything has been going up so we witness the food stocks going up, drug stocks, a
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good example today, local upgrades. you should see a shift to freeport scx, shift to alcoa, maybe you can see some money coming into gm ford for norfolk southern. u.p.s. had a good number. these are important tells for me including caterpillar which has been stalled since it blew out the number. >> speaking of caterpillar, this jobs report really does make it seem like qe3 will be put on the back burner for now. it's interesting to think back to what the caterpillar ceo said during the earnings release. that is he is worried about central banks around the world getting a little bit too ahead of themselves when it comes to positive economic data points and raising rates too soon. >> although as santelli pointed out in the last half hour markets are now pricing at a hundred percent chance of a fed hike by the end of 2013 which is earlier than the fed says their window will last. >> what would bernanke have sounded like today instead of yesterday, right, if we had this news out there? would we have gotten the same testimony? >> no, no. >> the same language around the
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possibility of qe 3? >> no. i think what would happen is he would have to say, you know, i put this 2014 deadline in but i have to be flexible. i think he has all the time been trying to avoid 1937. when we slip back into recession except we were able to be brought out of it by world war ii. unfortunately. i mean we're going to be talking about iran and israel. i don't want that to be world war 3. but i do believe very strongly that bernanke is not going to trust any single lumber and i wish he had just said we'll get some good numbers but they could be uneven because it does make him look like he was a little clueless. >> in terms of the market reaction, we saw a big jump in the futures markets but it is interesting also to see the reaction in the oil markets. yes we're seeing the expected reaction, crude a little bit higher. gold a little bit lower. >> right, right. >> but not the kind of moves you would think that would be commensurate with a 120-point gain on the dow. >> would you see copper which is
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my gauge? you think it should be up a couple? copper has been so strong. >> yes. >> this is the problem. people at home, the whole time this year has been going you're probably thinking wait a second. i listened to cnbc and they're saying many of the earnings were disappointing. more disappointments than we've had in sometime. what you should be thinking is that the whole part of the economy that was bad -- housing -- keys off of unemployment. this is a pro housing number. i think you'll see those stocks -- >> you did have a significant increase in construction. >> yes. >> and housing related. what about the ten-year? it's amazing. we're still below 2% i believe. >> isn't it crazy? >> 11 basis-point move, about a 5% move up in terms of yield but look at that. it only takes it to 1.90? >> yet everybody says sell it has looked like a dope. >> interesting. i got an e-mail from someone who said that a large part of this may be because the weather, and i know this sounds a little out there, has been so ridiculously warm around the country.
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golf courses according to some are experiencing record revenue for this time of year and a large part of the employment force never went inside due to snow and rain. >> i think you can look through these numbers, i'm getting e-mails saying don't forget this adjustment, that adjustment. follow these numbers, i never like to look through them. >> what do you mean? >> i don't want to say well maybe it was strong because of this or strong because of that. if there aren't any jobs, no construction going on, it don't matter if it's 70 and beautiful or not. i think this is a water shed number. doesn't necessarily mean i think we can just break through all levels. does mean that the move this year was not false. >> yeah. i think, david, people are trying not to look at the number itself but the acceleration from the average that we had last year. 137. the average for 2011. and then you look at some of the historics. three years since the rate's been this low. >> yeah. 8.3%. i mean, we've come down, we've
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come a long way in a lot of ways. there are others who look through the report and say hey the labor participation rate keeps falling. that's not a good sign. but otherwise, carl, listen. this number i think by most accounts of the pundits out there and we're all getting the e-mails and talking to them and i guess we include or are included amongst them this was a great number, right? so it is what it is to jim's point. >> yes. >> we'll see how the market reacts now. jobs days are always kind of tricky though when it comes to the market itself. >> yes. >> if i've learned anything i've learned that. so who knows what we'll see by the end of the day? >> remember you can take your cues. there are stocks that were downgraded today for instance and maybe they don't go down. watch air gas. goldman takes off air gas on a valuation process. this fended off air products. if that kind of stock doesn't go down, morgan stanley upgrades national oil. that was strong yesterday. if that stock continues its climb you'll see a shift out of general mills and kellogg's into those kinds of names. those are the stocks to watch. watch your deep sick lick algs
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that may react positive. watch your deep cyclicals. meantime, how much is this iran story weighing on your mind? >> i know, i took a tour of israel with barak -- >> not barack obama. last name barak not first name barack. >> not idle chatter. obviously again this is israel saying we're not going to appease anyone because we learned from munich what happens then. that goes through people's minds. that said i have always thought that if you just trade-off this, this kind of worry, you're not going to do that well but i do think it explains the strength in brent and that's how i'm approaching this. >> huge, carl. a huge foreign policy concern. it is already for the obama administration and it will be for any administration whether it's the obama administration again or romney administration
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let's assume as a possibility. it's going to be the number one front and center foreign policy challenge, what you do with iran. >> totally agree. >> and the israelis, there are so many different difficulties associated with an attack. we've read about them, heard about them. there's been a lot of reporting lately about it. some of us have had conversations with national -- with defense officials and the like where these development is being done, underground, different facilities, when you ultimately get in there, whether you can successfully pull off a mission which requires refueling, and numerous runs over by the way enemy air space or unless the saudis decide to allow it. you know, there's a lot of key questions. and for their part, i mean, netanyahu and barak have both been saying, not so fast to some at least of the rush to judgment says they're ready to go. they've at least been putting the brakes on it a bit. one has to believe that the
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u.s., itself, is saying not, come on, hold off. >> yeah. >> we don't want to see anything like this. >> you gave an immediacy to it in that wrap. >> listen, if leon panetta the defense secretary of the united states is saying he's worrying about it in the next few months i don't think it's too hard for us to assume that it's a concern front and center right now. >> yeah. i think we're used to hearing this kind of stuff from israeli officials to hear our own defense secretary talk about it. and the whole question is whether it is a real concern, bluster with the intent to get the iranians to move off of their position right. >> and come back to some kind of negotiation. it's just a tough call. >> and to get all the europeans in line, get the russians, get anybody you possibly can to continue this coalition and really deepen those sanctions and have them be effective. you've got two clocks running is the way it's been explained to me. the one is of course their move to the bomb and the other is regime change.
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can you speed one up enough and slow down the other enough that somehow you get there? that is the good scenario. very tough to get there. >> the backdrop is reports out of iran saying it has successfully launched a small satellite into orbit early this morning. and the concern here is the military obligations. i think we have some video of this launch. the military applications that can be used with this sort of technology. and of course this is according to state reports. we don't know what's true and what's not true. >> why isn't oil up a hundred? >> that's my question this morning when i read all of this. >> i would, this would be very believable to me in terms of a time frame of several days if gold was at 1800. >> right. >> but what david is tracing out obviously is frightening. i always find these things very difficult to be able to digest in terms of the market but i've been saying since "mad money" started seven years ago between 10% and 20% of your portfolio
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should be gold just for this kind of event. >> right. interestingly, even some of the commentary online this morning raises the possibility that, i mean, obviously this is way early, but if the jobs numbers continue to improve, what becomes the dominant discussion in the campaign? if it's not the economy, does it become something like iran? does it become some kind of social issue with planned parenthood story this week? that would be an amazing change. >> what would a republican do? here you've got a number which just changed your -- your stump speech can't be the same. we talk about bernanke not having the same. what do you do? you go out and say listen, the number is false. the weather was warm. you can't. you have to switch the debate. >> boehner's statement is just out. welcome news as he calls it. but we must do better. we'll talk to some republicans later on this morning who i'm sure will echo that sentiment. >> it's hard to argue with eight three. >> this was a breakout number. >> it was. we need to see this month after month after month.
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that is probably the point of anybody who is running in any party will say that. >> at the same time, i mean, look. they're running on the idea that people aren't being put to work. if i were in the white house right now i'd be saying, listen. not enough. but let me tick down the areas where people are hiring. go get a job. there aren't jobs being offered in oil and gas. we know this. and come on our shows and say, listen. we need workers. >> home depot is hiring 70,000 seasonal workers they announced two weeks ago. i wonder what if any impact there was thon report. >> i know it's fast food, "usa today" says minimum wage going up. chipotle needs to hire hundreds and hundreds of people for jobs where they groom you to be management. i point these out because this is the type of thing people were talking about six to nine months ago -- weren't talking about six to nine months ago. >> we come back to the issue of couriers which was a big mover of the number in december. employers only laid off 1500 couriers, much less than you'd expect after the 40,000 hired in
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december. analysts still having trouble getting their hands around the statistics because people are shopping more online so what does that mean for couriers and retail in general? it's a tough time to read this. there are so many shifts. >> i would like to see united parcel boost its hiring. yesterday on "mad money" irwin simon from hoehn talking about the amazon channel may be one if not the most important channel for his company. >> that was surprising when i heard that the first time, yeah. fascinating. >> i wonder, david, if we're going to call 2011 the year of cap x, right? the year of productivity improvement? 2012 -- no, 2011 then 2012 being the year of the employees. you've added your machines. >> right. >> now you have to hire your workers to run the machines. >> right. you have to make the decisions about hiring people. listen, this is a great number. i think many people would say very encouraging. i feel like i'm going to be one of those politicians.
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you have to see it followed up with more of same. that key decision by companies to actually increase plant, equipment, and people because they believe the investment will pay off and the capital that's put in will have a great return. that still is not a completely clear equation to many people in corporate america but is certainly going the right direction. >> david, you're hearing i'm sure what i am hearing which is that there are companies that are saying, you know what? it is cheaper to build. it is cheaper to hire in the united states. it has become that important. mexico because of political reasons, because of cartels, overseas because of increasing wages. are you hearing people saying, you know what? let's go to south carolina? >> i'm hearing it a little. it's not a ground swell. it's not like suddenly all the jobs are coming back. oh, yeah. let's keep making all that stuff we make in china in the u.s. >> you're going to say you know what jim? you're dead right. >> i couldn't agree more.
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>> a slap with all due respect, no respect. >> or lack -- jim, i love you but. >> oh, gee. >> i did that one earlier didn't i? yeah. >> oh, man. we'll continue the discussion obviously. we'll get first reaction from the white house to this morning's jobs number. we'll talk live with chief white house economic adviser alan k g krueger. then hard right turn. buffalo wild wing ceo sally smith on how her restaurant chain plans to score big business this super bowl sunday when the giants beat the pats. i'm sorry. just kidding. >> oh, geez! >> game still needs to be played. as we go to break a look at the premarket movers. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade,
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welcome back. rick santelli here on the floor of the cme group. you know what i said at 308 eastern? we want a million jobs an hour. that's what we want. what we got looked like a good report. i said let's get the calculator out and i did. so did my sources and big blogs many people read like zero hedge. the labor force participation rate if you look at nonseasonally adjusted, a fresh low going back to april of '83. if you look at seasonally adjusted a fresh low participation rate going back to december of '81. what does that mean in english? shrinkage. shrinkage. 1.2 million people are now not considered unemployed anymore.
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they just have left the system. we need to concentrate on the internals and eventually we want to watch the fixed income market to see if some of this sets in as people do their ciphering. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. the nonfarm payroll figure in this year's january report showing an increase of 243,000 jobs. that is going to make someone in particular very happy in our "squawk on the street" nail the number contest. as you know, all week long we've been asking you to tweet us your nonfarm payroll prediction for a chance to win a cnbc mug signed by all of us here at "squawk on the street." the response has been overwhelming and the "squawk" staff is diligently going through all of the data in search of the winner. we will of course unveil the winner later on in the show. it should be interesting to see who actually predicted such a huge number. >> in the case of a tie i think we're going with the person who sent in the number first. >> we actually have the mug
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here. i thought i'd again remind everybody what is at stake here. >> vrana white action -- >> i practiced. all right. coming up next cramer's got your numbers. how can you profit from them? get ready for his mad dash as we head to break. take a look once more at futures finding a super boost from the super jobs report number we got earlier. the dow now looking to add about 118 points at the open. [ barks ]
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welcome back. i'm sharon epperson. traders watch very carefully as bellwethers for the economic recovery, copper and gasoline did certainly surge on the stronger than expected jobs data. now following copper, gold. we're watching gasoline because it has something to do with what we're seeing in the oil market, the spread between brent crude and nymex crude prices continuing to widen. some analysts say it's also reflective of what's happening in the gasoline crash. of course a lot of what is happening with the brent crude price. back to you, melissa. >> thank you very much. we are just about 4 1/2 minutes before the bell rings on wall street. it could be a very big open here. >> yes, yes. >> the question is will it last? i hate to be a party pooper. we've seen this time and again. we have a big open and then sort of dissipate throughout the day. >> what people have to recognize at home is when we go up and up that's smarter people getting ahead of what they think is
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going to be a bright number. so their natural reaction is when we finally get this lift to blow things out. if you do want to get in let them take their profits and then you'll get a better level. it has been the pattern for multiple years. >> right. we are seeing big gains in the premarket in terms of big cap technology. microsoft one, set to open above 30 bucks a share. the financials across the board showing 1% increases. >> yes. >> bank of america, jp morgan, goldman sachs the ones i took a look at the action premarket all poised to open higher. >> it does make sense because remember this is a number that is about housing. bernanke, geithner, they all said it. if we get employment going we'll get people off the dime taking that 3.5 to 4% mortgage and buying houses. this is a number about housing and that's the impact i'm looking for. >> we will take a short break, talk a little cisco and some of the techs after the break and keep [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.
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opening bells. on wall street take a look at the cnbc real time exchange. abg technologies maker of anti-virus software the company had its ipo yesterday. at the nasdaq henry shine provider of health care products to dental and doctors' offices doing the honors over there. all right. we have it. we got the open. we're watching oil and we're watching banks. >> right. i want to see the money come out of the henry shines, out of health care, and go into companies that are making things and companies -- oil of course i'm watching in part because of iran/israeli tensions. the banks because this is about those mortgage rates. ben bernanke kept them low so that when people start getting employed they are going to go to work or refinance and buy a house. i think your home depot comment, all of the companies that sell into home depot, it is time. whether it be stanley, okay. >> right. >> whether it be cooper, cbe.
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don't forget they have a good tool vision. i like that group. i'm even thinking furniture and i haven't thought furniture in ages. >> look at the flooring, mohawks of the world, armstrong, worldwide, sherwin williams. a whole chain effect. if you are a true believer of the rebound in housing in part helped by this jobs number then you got to go down the line all the way down the line. >> i agree. i'm there. i agree. >> we have them higher in today's session. >> well it makes so much sense. please, don't forget we've been in a bear market for housing for five years. we've had houses down. we even heard last week, listen, diaper sales are down because people aren't having kids. there is a demographic shift that could be going on. you can't stay with your mother-in-law forever. trust me. >> i was going to say. sounds like personal ex-peer yenlgs. clorox posting earnings. good news for clorox there. >> a stock again that probably the money shifts away from but i
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think now duncan house has done a remarkable job there because remember proctor didn't say this. colgate didn't say this. i think clorox is on the mend. by the way, dupont, we left that out. dupont is a company that is uniquely levered to housing and autos even though that had not been their thing talking about health sciences. that stock heads higher too. >> right. in terms of the banks today are you willing to say, you know, bank of america, jp morgan, goldman sachs, if you are to believe that the jobs report is a true tell on the economy then you got to be in the financials now. >> wells fargo. wells fargo took a gigantic amount of share. they were able to do it. the government, we talked about too big to fail. wells fargo was able to accumulate a level of mortgage business in this country that says it goes 330. wells fargo next stop, 32 on this number. >> why is the financial pace that you have after a good jobs report and before the jobs report the same? i mean, if you're a believer of the jobs report and what it means for the economy shouldn't
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we have -- this is a live trading floor. shouldn't your mindset change in terms of what banks you want to be in for the outside? >> no. look. you get to argue bank of america because they own so many houses. i get that. but wells fargo is set up to be efficient and able to make money. u.s. bancorp, make money. they've got growth. i want growth. i don't want just a decline in the number, the amount of inventory of homes. i want guys who can write up a contract today and get you a house and a mortgage. that's wells fargo. >> let's head over to carl. >> thank you very much. we're chatting about some of the levels we're looking at particularly in tech. >> nasdaq if we hold these levels right now, looks like the highest since december of 2000. that's the nasdaq. now obviously this is far, far from its historic high. but, still, we're getting back to levels in the s&p tech sector also earlier in the week we were noting hit new highs. so we are having a great start, ban great start to the week. s&p up over 1%. the jobs blowout.
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of course the civics are out. my e-mail exploded. all right, bob. before you guys get too excited qe 3 is not happening. look for a late day fade in stocks. maybe bonds. sell off bonds. the cynics were out all over the place. who would not take a better economic situation a little stronger dollar over no qe 3? i mean, just intellectually, i certainly would take better jobs report, better economic numbers. now i'll tell you what does concern me a little bit. managers are behind. that's what i think is pushing this thing through. managers are way behind and they're going to be playing catch up. fund managers now. that's what i think is more important than qe 3 not happening. so that's why i think we're going to stay up. the other thing is we're a little bit over sold. things have been moving along. we're a little complacent and a little over sold. >> right. >> the smartest people i know called me this morning and said, you know, bob, one thing you want to do if you want to play a contrarian thing is go long volatility. with the vix at 18 everybody
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says nothing is going to happen. nobody cares. going long volatility actually is not a bad idea right now. that intellectually makes some kind of sense to me. playing a little bit about that short term complacency is the momentum that we've had recently. let me move on to europe. a great deal is imnenlt. stop me if you've heard this before. >> hours away? >> minutes away. >> the euro zone finance minister for monday may be postponed because they may not have a deal over the weekend they announced they were going to have yesterday. okay? greek deal is imminent and it is another day and the day after groundhog day. bad news in italy. did you see what happened to mario monty? he lost the vote in parliament. didn't sound like much but they were trying to get back to berlusconi. berlusconi's supporters actually tried to create a bill that would allow magistrates to be sued privately for making law rulings. the magistrates have been hounding berlusconi for years.
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monty lost the vote. that's not a good sign. the politics of italy, ungovernable, are coming back into the fore. it was widely commented over in europe. my final comment simon property group. i didn't hear you talk about it this morning. the numbers were excellent. now remember, everybody is saying, everybody is shopping at home. right? nobody is going to the mall. this is the largest mall owner in the united states. did you see the numbers? occupancy rate. 94.8%, up from 94.2% for the same period last year. everybody is going out shopping online. guess what? sales were up 7% in their malls. these are called tenant sales, very important metric that they use. everybody -- i don't think so. the numbers i was very impressed with. i thought the numbers would go down. >> a lot of the discussion we're hearing around the jobs numbers have been about the weather. with warmer weather people had no reason to hide inside. they were out shopping. >> these numbers, though, do go through the end of the month. >> thanks, bob. as we said the jobs number for january, much stronger than expected.
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243,000. the most in nine months. the unemployment rate, 8.3%. want to get the first reaction from the white house this morning. here first on "squawk on the street" is alan krueger chairman of the president's council of economic advisers. dr. krueger, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning. nice to see you again. >> let me get your reaction to some of the -- i won't call them nay sayers but those who are trying to nit pick at the number, looking at weather aspects, looking at participation rate. do you think 243 is as clean as we'll get? >> i think you have to be cautious with every report but if you look at the pattern of reports that are coming out, the pattern is definitely indicating that the economy is improving. jobs have been growing now for 23 months in a row. we've added 3.7 million private sector jobs. so i think the trend is pointing in the right direction. >> so the pattern is surely improving dr. krueger but at the same time this is such a tremendous increase versus the last report that i think a lot of the bears on the street to
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carl's point are thinking about the reasons why this number would be so elevated. the weather being one. also i was here on the floor of the stock exchange and home depot adding 70,000 seasonal workers. we don't know if that's in the numbers. what can you tell the bears on the street who are doubting the magnitude of this beat? >> well, if you look across industries this is a pretty broad increase last month. not only sectors that should be sensitive to the weather but across the board. we saw an increase in 50,000 manufacturing jobs for example. the business sector was strong. temporary help sector was strong. the weather cuts both ways. if you look at last quarter gdp growth because we had a warmer winter, people spent less money on electricity and heating oil. they actually fell about 26% at an annual rate. that shaved it to gdp a little bit. so i think what you want to do is look at the full picture here and we're digging our way out of a very deep hole.
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i think the policies the president has pursued have helped. i think these numbers indicate the importance of extending the payroll tax cut and continuing emergency unemployment compensation. also a hundred percent business expensing. >> dr. krueger? >> yes. >> is it possible that we are finally getting the notion that the united states has gotten really competitive in terms of when you hire people here versus overseas it is actually not costing you more money? >> well, i think there are a lot of indications that the american economy is highly competitive. the president held a meeting a couple weeks ago with a number of business leaders who have been talking about insuring jobs. it was quite an inspiring meeting i got to atenld. one thing they mentioned is costs are growing quickly abroad and here because of our productivity growth and the high skills of our work force they're finding it more competitive to bring jocks back home and that is a trend the president would
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like to do everything he can to continue. >> to look at the over all picture here and one part at least that amongst many parts that look great the labor participation rate, carl mentioned it but i want to get your particular take. it appears that 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month bringing it to a low, i think a 30-year low of 63.7% in terms of the civilian labor force. is that a concern? >> i think that is a misreading of the data. in january, the bureau of labor statistics updated the population they used connecting them to the census and that increased the size of the population. the labor force dispatience rate was unchanged if they adjust for the population weights from december to january. so in the last month, the reason why the unemployment rate dropped was because of faster job growth not because of people leaving the labor force. but it's important to stay focused on job growth. that's the key here.
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the president laid out a blueprint for an america that is built to last that will build on our strengths and create more jobs in the future, provide more opportunity for people to get into the middle class. >> all right. for those who are going to try and stick pins in this and the participation rate they have to remember the census changed the over all number and the percentage, correct? >> they have to beware because they would be making a mistake if they don't take account of the new population controls that were introduced in the january numbers. and as i said, the bureau of labor statistics was quite clear about that in their report. >> dr. krueger, one last question. i won't ask you to comment directly on fed policy, but markets today now pricing in a fed hike by the end of next year, 2013. is this the job market that can sustain some rise in rates, some rise in mortgage rates for instance? >> well, you know, i'll take your advice and not comment on the federal reserve policy. they're an independent agency. i think there are a lot of benefits from having that
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structure. i think we can see a continuation of growth in the economy and in the job market and that's what i mentioned before. i think most important is to continue the payroll tax cut, extended unemployment benefits so we can build on the momentum that started the last year and seems to be continuing the beginning of this year. >> you drink any champagne today or does that come later? >> you know, we're not over the moon. we realize that the economy went through a very difficult time, very deep hole to dig out of. the president goes to work every day trying to look for ways to speed the recovery to continue the recovery and we're going to stay at it. that's why the president laid out a blueprint for a stronger america. you know, an america built on a revival of manufacturing, on american energy, on improving skills of the work force and return to american values. >> dr. krueger, thanks for being with us. good to talk to you today. >> thank you. my pleasure. >> alan krueger joining us from the white house. >> nobody wants to say you know what? things are better.
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the republicans won't. democrats won't. i think that's fine. i understand that maybe we'll get a bad month but sometimes i just would like to hear someone saying, you know what? we're getting better. >> as soon as you do that though we'll play the sound bite and is that a point where things are better? we'll say what happened? you said things are getting better. you're wrong. >> i want to take that risk for heaven's sake. i'm sick of glue. >> you have been taking that risk. >> i am. i'm sick of gloom. we've had gloom forever. maybe things are better. maybe it's okay to say it. i'll risk it. >> maybe or they are? >> i'll risk it. they're better. >> remember to stick around of course. we'll find out our winner of the nail contest. if you were lucky enough we'll get you the mug signed by everyone including you. >> wow. what a prize. let's shift to bonds on the dollar checking with rick santelli in chicago at the cme. good morning, rick. >> good morning.
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we can summarize the markets pretty easy. you're up about a dozen basis points on the long end after the number generically you know 3% to 3.12, 3.13 on a 30-year basically from 180 to 191, 192 on a ten-year. the euro as you can see on this clart really starting to lose a little ground. listen, if i talk about a stock that had a great report but i don't point out the fact there was a one-time tax credit that did it am i doing my viewers a service or a disservice? when you look at the body counts on the establishment survey we created jobs. that's a good thing. there's my perk. i'm sorry. if you look at the other side, you look at the household survey yes we had this big seasonal adjustment. you can go to the bls. you can see the economic release. you can see the situation summary. we can see that not in labor force move from about 87 -- 86.6 million to 87.8. there's your 1.2 million. we do see the asterisk. there's been an adjustment on
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population. that's the way it goes. we make an adjustment. the last 12 months needed to be adjusted. it is what it is. back to you. >> all right. thank you, rick santelli. let's head back to headquarters for the faber report. david, you're looking at the caesar's ipo. >> exactly. of course a lot of attention and much of it justified on facebook's upcoming ipo and its filing earlier this week. yesterday we got an amended s-1 filing from caesar's. people may remember caesar's entertainment performer harrah's tried to go public last year, failed to do so in what would have been a fairly large offering being sold or at least pushed out to a certain extent by its owners led by apollo and tbg one of the larger lbo's from that period that we saw. they didn't get it out last year. this time they are trying with the smallest amount of shares that i can say i've seen in a long time. 1.8 million shares priced between $8 and $10 a share. this is a mini offering to say the least.
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but what's interesting here is once it is done if they get it done and expectations are at that level they will with that little stock, then it's going to allow others to begin to sell. namely, the paulson funds for example that own about 10% of the company stock having actually been in some of the bonds they've bought. they will be able to sell. in fact, when you look at some of the language you'll see shares held by certain existing. there is a look at john paulson. investors representing 27.8% of the companies issued outstanding capital will be listed after giving effect to this offering of which 18.8% will become freely tradeable immediately and then you get the rest six months later. so a lot more stock will follow this tiny little offering if they get it done. it's a company that has $22.5 billion worth of debt. but it points out only $45 million actually has to go out to pay interest next year or this year. back to you, melissa. >> wow. all right, david, thanks for that. coming up next winging it on super bowl sunday. buffalo wild wings ceo sally smith on turning the big game
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into big business. the stock by the way has been hot as well. take a look at this morning's early movers. the dow is higher by 0.9% and so is the s&p. stay tuned.
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we are counting down a sunday super bowl showdown. last year buffalo wild wings sold more than 6 million wings on super bowl sunday. over the last year shares of buffalo wild wings are up nearly 45%. here first on cnbc is the company's president and ceo sally smith. sally, nice to see you once again. >> nice to be here. thank you. good morning. >> good morning. is the super bowl to you as christmas is to retailers? >> you know, it really is. this is one of my favorite weekends of the year and super bowl sunday is certainly one of our biggest days both in restaurant and for takeout sales. >> so in terms of percentage of revenues for the year over the super bowl weekend what is that and what's the mix between food
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versus alcohol? >> you know, we'll do -- last year compared to a nonfootball or nonfootball sunday, we -- our sales were up about 113% for super bowl sunday. and the next day is pretty consistent on food versus alcohol. we're currently about 75% food 25% alcohol. most of that of course is beer. and on super bowl sunday most of the sales, food sales are definitely wings. >> speaking of wings tyson foods says wing prices may be going up dramatically. do we have to worry? >> we've dealt with fluctuating wing prices for years. 2010 wing prices were at an all-time high, moderated a bit in 2011. and, yes, we've seen wing prices go up. but we have a full menu and wings certainly make up a big portion. with our strong sales and our operational excellence i think
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we'll be in good shape. >> so you an early adopter of using facebook for advertising, 5 million followers. is facebook the best way to reach people? you. >> you know what? it is one of the ways we reach people. we have as you mentioned over 5 million facebook fans and the fans just like they're in our restaurants are just absolutely fanatical on facebook. we don't do a lot of promoting but let the fans spend time talking among themselves about their favorite sauces, favorite locations. we're also i think the fifth largest restaurant brand right now on twitter as well. >> sally, i want to go back to the wing question because not only are prices high. they've nearly doubled since october but also seasonally they're high because around super bowl time wing prices are just higher. have you been hedging? i understand you have a full serviceman unite. i imagine around this weekend it's the wing sales that really drives it. will your margins compress over the weekend?
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>> it's one day and we have both traditional wings and boneless wings. we certainly have a contract in place for our boneless wings but we'll be buying based on our pricing for january for our february prices. the big thing for me is making sure that every restaurant has enough wings for the demand out there and we've successfully been able to provide wings for any party, for all our takeout guests as well as our in restaurant. >> all right. sally, it's great to speak with you. have fun this weekend. >> thank you. i will. you, too. >> we certainly will. what channel, carl, is the super bowl playing on? >> sorry? >> what channel is the super bowl aired on? gosh. >> i think it's nbc. >> of course. on nbc coverage begins at noon. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. #
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60 seconds. kick it off with wynn resorts. disappointing. >> mgm is right. vegas is right. didn't do it. >> merck downgraded to neutral from buy. >> when you have the economy roaring may not want to be in merck though i do like the company. >> cmg. >> people sold it incorrectly.
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i think the quarter next time will be terrific. >> boosting the dividend 28%, flour. >> i don't know why they'd boost it if it isn't good. >> cisco an upgrade. >> makes sense. we have a mixed pitch in your telecommunications but cisco is taking share. >> walgreen. >> never ends. >> more of the names tonight? >> weyerhauser stock breaking out. >> see you at 6:00 and 11:00. >> all right. stay tuned. breaking news. ism.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." now here is the number that's strong. january ism. that's nonmanufacturing service sector really rocking it from 52.6 to 56.8. 52.6 is the read we've had four months running. we had it in september, october, november, and december. 56.8 is the best read that we've had since, wow, 56.8. since february of 2011. so this is a good number. dee's factory orders a little light but still positive.
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1.1, up 1.1%. we were looking for closer to 1.5. our last look also ramped up from originally reported at 1.8 to up 2.2. this data looks pretty good. the employment data we added bodies but we definitely lost some unemployed people pushing that unemployment rate down so markets are reflecting some positives today. it's a friday, a weekend. there's greece issues. a lot more trading to come. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. market reaction was strong to the better than expected ism number. we're at session highs right now the dow up by 1.1% a gain of 142 points. the nasdaq higher by 1.3%. the qs by the way the highest levels since 2001. let's bring in john harwood in washington with more reaction on that. much better than expected jobs data. john? >> melissa, this is the kind of data that makes white house economists be cautious in public, welcome it, say great. we have to see a lot more.
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can't put too much in one month's numbers. but the political advisers are absolutely ecstatic because we even saw a few days ago in the nbc/"wall street journal" poll a rising sense of optimism nationally among voters diminishing the share of voters who think the country is on the wrong track, raising the president's job approval numbers, raising his competitiveness against republican candidates. it undercuts the argument from republicans that he doesn't know what he's talking about. interestingly, speaker boehner's released this morning that we need new policies because the president's policies haven't worked as advertised. in previous months you would say the policies haven't worked. it's a big difference and it makes it a lot easier for the president to try to say, we're on the right track as he moves deeper into the election year. >> we keep coming back to christy roemer's 8% unemployment target. all the promises made around stimulus and that's the danger, john, that comes with putting
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out your own projections when you're putting out legislation. >> yeah. i mean, the christy roemer jared bernstein projections were based on a different view of how bad the economy was at that moment than actually was the case. but set that aside. the question right now is how does the administration both get -- communicate a sense and have it be shared, match reality that the economy is getting better and having people feel that? and when you have numbers this robust, that just increases the odds that voters as we saw in the nbc journal poll i mentioned are themselves in their own lives going to feel this. and that has the effect of like putting more water in a swimming pool and basically lifting everything up for an incumbent president. we saw in a couple elections past that when you get to the spring time of a re-election year for a president, when the economy is lifting and people share that sense it's very auspicious for a president.
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this is not morning in america yet. that's the optimism for an incumbent president. remember ronald reagan was very low in '81-'82. and even deep into '83 his numbers were down and then you get into '84 and they started getting -- to a lesser degree president clinton got that in '96 where in the spring time people gradually decided that yeah as bad as it was and as bad as they were feeling things were getting better. the president right now hopes that he gets a clinton '96 kind of thing and if he gets something better than that it makes his job easier. >> would you be surprised, john, if the economy was not the number one issue in the campaign this summer and this fall? >> it will be the number one issue. i don't see any way around that. although, you know, if all of a sudden there is a strike by the israelis on iran and that somehow escalates a set of events that -- beyond our ability to forecast, yes, something else could be front and center although that would
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be interpreted by americans and they would be evaluating that through the lens of economics and oil prices and that sort of stuff. but, no. i don't see any way you can, after what we've been through, after how long things have been bad, how bad they still are for so many millions of people. there's no getting around the economy being the issue. the question is, is it an albatross for the president, a neutral factor or one he can simply parry republican attacks? i don't see much way it could become a huge positive for him but some of the weight that's been weighing him down is being lifted by numbers like this. >> yeah. interesting. amazing. you can't take one number to the bank but this is showing some people a different direction. thanks, john. joining us this morning with more reaction to the january jobs number, republican house majority whip kevin mccarthy of california joins us from the hill. congressman, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> i understand there was a leadership meeting this morning. tell us about the mood in the room today.
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>> well, i didn't have a leadership meeting this morning. we usually do every day. we were meeting on the transportation bill going forward. these are welcome numbers. we're excited to have the numbers moving forward but all the other numbers that look out don't look so prosperous. the congressional budget office said we'll have a fourth trillion dollar budget four years in a row for this president. the unemployment number at 8.9 by the end of the year and we wonder how many jobs we could have added if keystone pipeline had been approved. there is still much more to get done. >> obviously the jobs number is good. i don't know if you heard the ism services number. hiring expectations are well above expectations leading you to believe we might see if not a repeat number like this one then something that is in this trajectory. is the talking point or the argument going to be it's good but it could have been better? >> now, look. we hope the numbers continue to get better. that's what we're working on every day inside the house. we've had 11 recessions since
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the post war, world war ii. if you take the average of the last ten we're down 13 million jobs just on average we should have already created. so there is a better way of going about doing this. you've got to work together to make it happen. you've got a senate sitting on 27 bills out of 30 that would help job creation. so there's a lot of work to be done and we hope we can make it happen. >> congressman, do you think that perhaps obama's lower taxes are working here? "the journal" reports the effective tax rate of which american corporations are now being taxed is at a 40-year low, 12.1% partly of course because we're foregoing $55 billion a year so they can immediately write down their investments. are those tax cuts working and in your view is it right, are they good value for money to add to the deficit? >> look. actually our tax system is holding us back. we have the second highest corporate tax rate in the world. we have repatriation if we're able to bring back, trillions of dollars sitting on the outside. we live in a world economy but why does a product have to be
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created -- when created in america and goes to europe it pays for their social welfare but theirs comes over and gets back. we have an ability to compete worldwide. we just have to have a tax system that allows it. >> aren't the new figures from the cbo indicating america does not have a very high tax rate? the tax rate, the effective tax rate in fiscal year to the end of september was 12.1% according to the cbo. that is a very low rate of corporate taxation. >> if you look at every rate that we go through america is the second highest where they go. if you look at how the jobs are departed you'll find statistically we are too high. we are in a world economy. why if you get a product in a world economy it costs you 35% to bring the money back to america so they hold the money outside when every other country has 5% or zero? statistically doint see where the argument stands. >> are you afraid a number like this gives lawmakers less impetus to examine measures like a repatriation tax holiday?
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>> i don't see people here getting a sugar high. we have a high unemployment rate. we have a cbo report that says for the fourth time we're going to have the highest deficit than any other time. we've got a national debt continuing to rise. we've got people continuing out of work. i think we need to get back to work in creating jobs. why would you say no to the keystone pipeline when there are 20,000 jobs there just because you have a good number in one month? let's put all of america back to work. >> well, if the concern is deficits, congressman, deficits are ostensibly solved in time through growth and a number like today is not just the jobs number but the ism number and industrial production and some of the manufacturing surveys we've gotten are suggesting growth. do you not see that? >> i see growth on the way but i also see a cliff on the way. at the end of the year, all the tax cuts will expire. you've got another debt limit at
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the same time coming up and obama care going into effect. that is an uncertainty. that is why you have the highest from the last 50 years more money corporations are holding than any other time. we need to unshackle that and unleash that. that is the greatest stimulus you could have without $1 being borrowed by government. that is an ability to continue to create private sector jobs. >> congressman, can i just briefly touch if possible on where we are externally with the foreign affairs? we've had overnight iran now launching its first domestically built satellite into orbit and it is clear israel's defense minister is very worried that they're rapidly varying their nuclear ability deep in the ground where it cannot be hit by a strike from above. if tel aviv does launch a surprise attack on iran, what should the united states response be? should they get involved in any military aggression between iran and israel? >> i think america being a world leader should make sure that never has to happen. so first and foremost we should
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make sure iran does not follow through on what they're trying to do. we should make sure they do not create what they're trying to do and i think the sanctions are beginning to work. ism' one who always stands with my friends. that makes a stronger and safer america. but as a world leader in america, this is an important time that we step forward and not be quiet. because if you are quiet, things like that could come to fruition. >> congressman, appreciate your time today. thanks so much. >> thanks for having me. >> congressman kevin mccarthy the house majority whip from california. >> here is a look at what's coming up next on "squawk on the street." still to come the results are in. who is our lucky mug winner? were you able to nail the number on today's jobs report? find out if you'll be receiving a bit of "squawk" history later on "squawk on the street." americans believe they should be in charge of their own future.
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stocks to watch this friday morning zynga surging to highest levels since it went public in december. the ipo from facebook the s-1 doing business there. life sciences, edwards life sciences fourth quarter earnings beating estimates where the guidance fell below consensus down 8%. estee lauder's second quarter of course matching estimates put the forecast again shorter of expectations that there is a rebound now in that stock. >> european commission officially announcing it would block the merger between deutsche and the nyse merger next. so will rising regulatory risk begin to hinder potential m & a
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deals? over to david faber back at headquarters joined by a very special guest. >> you know, 2011 less than a stellar year for mergers and acquisitions and deal making continues to be sluggish. year to date global announced m & a has totaled $120 billion, 62% lower than the same time last year. and the lowest level since 2003. so where is the turn-around we all hear about? the cohead of north american mergers & acquisitions at jp morgan joins us. here we said terrible january for m & a compared to last year which was good in the first half. >> very good. >> are you seeing more activity? is this year going to be better at least for the first month? >> we're seeing a lot more activity. january is a reflection of october. if you don't start a deal in october you don't print it in january. so we hit an air pocket that was substantial with the european crisis and folks didn't start deals and so we're not printing deals in january. that will change. as we proceed through 2012.
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because the fundamentals are off the charts, david. >> what do you mean by that? >> what i mean is there is $2 trillion worth of buying power in the s&p 500. if you back out the nonfinancial firms they've got a market cap of $10 trillion. they have the ability of buying power including all the excess cash and access to debt and very cheap debt of $2 trillion. >> so 20%. >> 20% which is just by historical norms gigantic. the other thing that i would say is that when you look at last year it's really the tale of two halves. the first half we see big deals and we actually saw a very warm reception on the buy side for companies that put cash to work and had a dynamic strategy. their stocks were traded up on deal announcements. then we hit europe and everything goes quiet during the second half. what that means is that investors want to see a dynamic forward leaning strategy.
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they are voting with their buying and the folks that aren't responding to that in many ways have a risk in their shareholder base of a lot of activism. we saw activism spike dramatically in the second half of last year and very simply if there's $1.3 trillion of cash on the balance sheet -- >> a lot of it's overseas. >> the activists are going to go after it. your choices are spend it on organic growth, buy growth at pretty good prices with historically low debt, or give it back to your shareholders. >> you and i could have sat here last year and granted the first half people may forget was pretty good for m & a. we could have had the same conversation a year ago. and ended up of course not being a great year at all. >> that's right. the reason for that again is if you took the first half of last year and extended it across the year, then you would have had a wonderful m & a year. >> you think momentum would have picked up? did you get a sense there were even more? >> yes.
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>> you know how this business works. one ceo sees another doing it. they start to see the positive perception in the market and say okay. time to stop sitting on my hands. but then the brakes were put on. >> the brakes were put on and you went back to kind of a fortress balance sheet mentality. that was fair. it was a risky environment. we saw huge volatility in the equity market. the markets going up and down 300, 400 points a day. >> very tough to negotiate a price. >> very tough to negotiate price. and quite frankly very tough from a board and public company perspective to walk out in the middle of that and put down a large premium for another company. that sort of storm in the equity markets, you look at january, appears to have somewhat subsided. so we've got stability in the equity markets for now. and our strong belief at jp morgan is that the risk in this market is to the upside. and the jobs number today i think reflects that. i think what you're going to see because m & a is very much of a confidence transaction. >> right. >> you're going to see
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confidence restored and you're going to see folks putting that cash to work because quite frankly if they don't put it to work the risk is quite substantial. >> all right. i know you're not going to sit here and tell me who is going to buy whom but give me some sense in terms of the level of activity you're starting to see from your clients. i mean, are your guys going to be busy? are you seeing a lot of conversations? a lot of ceos saying we want to consider this again something we had on the boards a while ago we put away? >> we are absolutely seeing folks pulling out deals they sheffield in the fall number one. we have a global platform at jp morgan and one thing you're going to thz year is a heavy level of cross border activity. >> why? >> the reason is because if there are different, very different growth outlooks for different regions. so look at abb on thomas and betts. that's a european buyer putting cash to work in a -- outside of its home zone in another region with higher growth. you're going to see portfolio
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adjustment across multi nationals moving from slower growth regions adjusting their portfolio into higher growth regions in south america and asia and even the u.s. because the u.s. appears to have a higher growth trajectory than again what europe -- >> final question. you saw the biggest deal of the year go down in flames due to regulatory opposition. that has to put a chill in some people. will it continue to have an impact? talking at&t mobile by the way. >> sure. it's going to impact certain kinds of transactions. where there is substantial anti-trust risk i think you'll see people pause and maybe look and see what happens in this election. there are many deals that don't have that profile so i don't think it's going to be an overall headwind but i do think it is something that causes folks to pause and they say, you know, is the government a little bit tighter? have they lowered the bar? is it a tighter regulatory environment? that's probably fair. there are a lot of deals people have talked about that are in question that are actually going
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to go through. >> six months, nine months, see how the predictions went. >> thanks very much, david, for having me. >> back to you guys. >> thanks, david. a quick check on markets on the way out, on the way to break here. looking at interesting levels on the dow at 12,860 already taking out the closing high from last year which is 12,810. this would be the highest close now since may of 2008. and of course on the s&p if you had bought at 666, at the lows in may or march of '09 you would have doubled your money. >> wow. >> officially as of today. when we come back ten ways to change the world according to google. we've got your super bowl sunday coverage from ticket sales to special commercial sneak peeks. stick around. back in two minutes. >> i'm very concerned about any attempt to raise taxes on private equity returns. it hurts minority private equity funds. it'll devastate them because
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live shot of lucas oil stadium in indianapolis. only two days away from the big game. so just how expensive have those ticket prices been leading up to the super bowl on sunday? our darren rovell is standing by in indianapolis like we all wish we were with the latest. good morning, darren. >> well, carl, we certainly wish we were or are as i am standing here right now. the weather is great. this city has held up pretty well. as far as the ticket prices go, there's a variety of factors. you know it's obviously the markets, which are boston and new york which can command the price. there's obviously corporate
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america's interest, you know, 20%, 30% of the crowd is not necessarily a fan for either side but they want to just have some idea, you know, hey, we're here in town. this is a big event. thirdly, the factor a lot of people haven't considered, chicago. the midwest connection. the money there. and it's only a three-hour drive. people can come up at the last minute. that's what we're looking at right now because the ticket prices did drop below $2,000 yesterday. the guys at tick iq say the lowest price is about $1890 paid. the guys at stub hub say $2,755 is the median price. pretty much if you're going to get a lower bowl seat you'll be paying about four grand but that number is coming down. people we spoke to say there's about 3,000 tickets left at this point and that's really the number because we know there's demand. it's all going to be about the supply side of the equation as we get closer to the game so
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it's been interesting. i got to tell you, indianapolis has held up extremely well. the proximity is incredible. it's only about ten blocks where you really have to get around. you can walk everywhere. i think this is going to change the opinion of the nfl's heavy rotation of cities like miami, san diego, new orleans. >> darren, in terms of the most interesting prop bets i've heard the amount of time it'll take kelly clarkson to single national anthem, heard the color of madonna's hair. what's your favorite? >> actually the color of madonna's hair is now off the board. because she has done a couple preinterviews and they are concerned that that will be her final hair color so that is off the board right now. kelly clarkson is a minute 34 on her national anthem. she sings it faster than most. last year christina aguilera sang it in 1:53:7. the line on the over and under is actually 1:53.
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they paid both the people who had the over and the under. i love the national anthem one and obviously the gatorade one, you know, which color of gatorade will be dumped on the coach? the favorite over the past couple years has been clear or water and that is, you know, the best odds. but i think it was orange last year so watch out if you're going to take that bet. >> i've heard blue has pretty good odds as well. thanks, darren. we'll be seeing you all day today. you can catch the big game this sunday, coverage begins at noon. kickoff 6:29 eastern on nbc. >> if i dump gatorade on your head, carl, it would be blue. >> thank you. i love you, too. >> just so you know. it's my favorite. anyway, matthew broderick's new honda crv ad tearing up the internet already ahead of super bowl sunday but what other ads does honda have under its belt? you've got your special sneak peek in a few. until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be.
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we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement.
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some of the stories we're squawking about 7:30 on the west coast. 10:30 on wall street on this friday. bank of america up more than 4%. young brands and tjx some stocks hitting new all-time highs. the ism's nonmanufacturing index better than expected today with a january reading of 56.8 indicating services sector growth is at its fastest pace since february of 2011. >> take a look at the markets right now. up by more than 1% the nasdaq up by more than 1.3%. the vix has been below 17 almost
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this full entire session. 16.89. taking a look at the advanced decline line during the session, we're seeing advancers leading decliners by a margin of 6-1 and over on the nasdaq take a look at that margin over there and we are seeing a similar ratio. i'd say about 5-1 at this point. let's bring in cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman for more on today's seller jobs number. it's not been the jobs number in and of itself but the ism number that lit a fire under the markets. >> i think you are right. it reinforced the manufacturing sector what we saw a couple days ago but the jobs report not just the headline number. when you dig into the details every part of it is strong. one thing some skeptics have pointed to this participation, actually unadulterated hog wash. i'll get to that in a minute. here are the numbers if you missed them. 243,000 blowing out the consensus. revisions to the positive side for november and december.
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noit rate down by two tics, consensus was for it to be flat. private payroll 257,000 and the average hourly earnings went up too. we haven't seen a strong jobs number with strong gains in hourly earnings. hfe calling this a game changer. wells fargo says it's a big positive for growth and continued gains in hours worked will add to that growth number and bmo says after milking the productivity well dry american firms are hiring again. we did see the decline in productivity last quarter. here are the details. construction up 21,000. manufacturing up 50. services very strong. 176. even retail the month after the firing up 10,000. transportation up. there's leisure and hospitality coming in strong as well. big question about what the real jobs number is. two surveys. the household survey people don't like to rely on, payrolls, they've not come together. you can see they're going further apart. over the past three months a difference of 700,000. over the past six months 1.1
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million more jobs in the household survey. i don't know which to believe. i just want to point it out. now a word on that argument whether to -- dropping out of the work force. this is untrue. the government census found more people. many of these people they found were older in the 55 plus age group. this group has a lower participation rate. as you age your chances of working are lower. they didn't drop out of the work force. they've not been in it or leaving for many years. no change in the population the bls told us. the participation rate would have been unchanged. more importantly the decline of the unemployment rate is entirely due to people finding work. if it were not david faber i would have told you that and we were working on the story for a long time. >> we asked dr. krueger about that or i did because there are people who are trying to point to that as a sign of potential weakness. it's important people understand that. so that change took place december to january i guess. >> right. january they put the new census numbers into the population estimates and that's what they
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come up with. >> i am curious, your thoughts on the ten-year which is not even at 2%. we heard from bernanke yesterday. if we had this number yesterday how does this figure into the overall debate about interest rates, about qe 3 and where we stand right now in terms of keeping things low until 2014? >> it's very clear. if this improvement continues at this rate, the 0.2 every rate bernanke is going to have a hard time fulfilling this commitment/forecast/pledge/not a pledge whatever you want to call it to keep rates exceptionally low through late december, late 2014. it's just not going to happen. and they're going to have to come off of that if this continues. there's still a lot of slack in the work force, david, so they still have a little bit of a margin of error but it's going to shrink if we stay on this trajectory. >> we'll see. steve liesman. back to you, simon. >> thank you very much. let's bring in our director of ubs floor operations here at the new york stock exchange art cashin. a lot of people may be disappointed we didn't rally
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more today. >> i think that is absolutely correct. first of all, there was some astonishment about the numbers but there's an old rule of thumb down here. you check the revisions. if they're going the same way the revisions are going that gives them credibility. this number had real credibility. despite some minor anomalies. but i think what's holding us back is things haven't disappeared across the pond. >> you mean the euro. >> yes. monty had a small problem in parliament. he lost a minor vote. there have been rumors all morning that the greek prime minister might in fact be threatening to resign. that might be a political ploy. if you don't go my way i quit. >> perfectly reasonable given you have this confluence of people coming together and disagreements. i think the dutch finance minister has said they're not prepared to put more money in. you've got a hold now of 15 or 20 -- a hole of 15 or 20 billion that needs to be filled. >> you have a weekend coming up, also some geo political things bubbling up. egypt is stressful. the syrian thing is coming to a
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head. so i think that's giving some second thoughts here. >> let me ask you specifically about israel. the defense minister is very concerned about what iran is doing and basically the inference is there may be a surprise attack from israel at some point. as an investor how should you view that? some retail investors might stay on the sidelines in anticipation. how did geo political events like that normally work through in terms of markets? >> well a surprise attack is going to be a surprise. but the fact that -- >> and how negative would that be? >> well, i think the idea that panetta and others are openly discussing it right now makes it less likely. it would be a dramatic effect depending on what happened next. what would be the other shoe to drop. would the iranians block aid the strait of hormuz? would it be disruptive of fuel flows into europe? and europe's already in a precarious position. you can't play it out fully. you never bet on the end of the world. it only happens once. >> interestingly oil has not
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moved that much recently. does that tell us that perhaps the situation is not so bad in the market's view? >> well i think it tells us that they don't think it's imminent. again, with panetta and others discussing it openly if you thought a close ally was about to launch a surprise attack you wouldn't be out with an interview in "the washington post" about it. >> have a great weekend. thank you very much. art cashin. back to you. >> thanks, simon. super bowl sunday just two days away. advertisers are clamoring to get their hands on a slice of prime air time. the going rate this year for a super bowl commercial clocking in at a cool 3.5 million dollars. before we head to break take a look at the top four most valuable super bowl in terms of ad revenues. number five super bowl 40. steelers vs. sea hawks. number four super bowl xlii giants versus pats. number three super bowl xlv packers vs. steelers. number two, steelers vs. the cardinals. we of course have number one right after this. plus hold on to the edge of your seats for revealing the winner
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of our nail the number twitter contest. you won't want to miss that. still to come the results are in. who is the lucky mug winner? were you able to nail the number on today's jobs report? find out if you'll be receiving a bit of "squawk" history later on "squawk on the street." [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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we're into trading. stocks to watch. bb & t upgraded from underweight. the stock rises 3.5%. aetna has been removed from the conviction buy list by goldman sachs. dendarion upgraded to neutral from under perform at bank of america merrill lynch. >> we told you we'd reveal the most valuable super bowl to date in terms of ad revenue. here they are. number one on the list no surprise. super bowl xlv the great one the patriots vs. the giants.
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the game that will essentially be played again on sunday. of course two of the most buzzed about ads this year are courtesy of honda. take a look. >> i guess it'll be okay. >> i'm calling the studio, matthew. you're not shooting today. >> he bought it. life is packed with things you have to do. sometimes you have to live a little! ♪ oh, yeah >> look, i don't know what to tell you. he's sick. actors get sick sometimes. >> life moves pretty fast. if you don't stop to look around once in a while you'll miss it. >> get going in the all new crv from honda. >> i would love to have the first one. >> you're number two in line. >> who's number one? >> that guy. >> so you're number one. >> hum. >> how would you like to be number 20? >> no. >> i'll throw in the soup nazi. >> soup for you. >> i got a new boat. woo! no! >> final offer. >> access to my private zip line.
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>> wow! you get the first msx. >> how about a jet pack flying squirrel suit? >> the acura nsx. it's coming. joining us this morning the man who first on cnbc the man who gave those ads the green light, vice president of auto marketing for american honda joins us from los angeles. michael, good morning. >> good morning to you. >> fantastic stuff. obviously the ferris ad is a big demographic play for people my age and melissa and simon's age who remember that film then leno and seinfeld two guys we all know collect cars. why the super bowl and more specifically why now is the window being stretched out? people could have watched at least the ferris ad as early as this week. >> well, why the super bowl the answer is quite simple. 111 million viewers of which studies show 80% to 90% actively watched the commercials. so this is a great, great platform. the biggest stage in the united states for us to communicate all
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the great things we have going on in honda. why go early? there's been this increasing buzz over the last few years and hype about the super bowl commercials and what we wanted to do was utilize that and leverage it to the best of our ability to get viewers to start looking at our website and looking at our products over a longer period of time. why wait until sunday night when we can get all this great buzz we experienced this week. >> do you monitor what the reaction is on social media sites like twitter and facebook when you release these ads early? i'm just curious if you know for sure you're getting more bang out of your buck by releasing these ads early or if you're just fatiguing viewers because they've seen this before. >> well, absolutely. we measure everything. we can see the number of buzz -- amount of buzz we're getting, the sentiment of that buzz. we also watch closely what happens on our website. we've seen a significant lift in traffic on our website, people coming to find out more about the new honda crv, people coming
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to explore more about the acura brand. i can tell you the results have exceeded my very, very high expectations. >> michael, there's an irony which i'm sure wasn't lost on your creators. ferris buehler was shot for $5.8 million back in the day and i imagine you've got a budget way in excess of that for this project. >> well, 26 years ago and, you know, the cost of money and all that kind of stuff. you know, these super bowl spots are expensive. just the media time itself is expensive and the production cost can be expensive. but when you get the viewership that we're experiencing, when you get the long tail we'll experience after the game, throw in 111 million views we'll get on game day about a billion impressions will come out of these ads and we feel the costs per million are going to be in line with what we would spend on a regular television advertisement. >> that is amazing. a billion impressions.
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i love when you talk about the tail end. the so-called easter eggs that are in the ferris ad, for instance, the iconic vest he wears in the film is seen briefly in a retail store window? i mean, people are going to be watching these things 20 or 30 times. >> well, that's the plan, right? the purpose of the easter eggs. what we like about both of these ads is they're a series of bits that go by very quickly when you're watching the ad and you want to go back and watch more. you want to go back and look for those easter eggs or you want to go back and look at jerry seinfeld's expressions or the expressions going on in the other characters in the seinfeld acura ad. so this is the intent is multiple views. >> how many easter eggs actually are there? how many do you have to find? >> well, i can't tell you that. because i don't want people to stop looking. we're going to reveal it all on our facebook page in the coming days and also be sharing where people could find certain ones
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if we're seeing that they're not picking them up but there are all throughout the ferris buehler spot. on the acura spot what we have is a series of extensions. each one of those bits we have that jerry goes through in the ad we have a one-minute or so ad just on that particular bit so the thanksgiving dinner, the sock puppet, the zip line, each have their own bits which are just phenomenally and hilarious. >> yeah. the soup nazi we get. in terms of -- that's an easter egg on the seinfeld side. thanks for your time. have a great weekend. enjoy the game. >> thank you very much. >> have we mentioned the super bowl is on nbc? >> really. is it really? wow. >> february 5th coverage begins at noon. kickoff time 6:29 eastern. >> all right. straight ahead this morning google hosting its how to change the world dinner. we'll talk to one of the lucky entrepreneurs invited to attend, next. before the break just launched cnbc collective intellect super
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sunday. ad tracker. according to the world of social media right now these are the top five most anticipated super bowl ads. we're back in two minutes. so -- tell me again what happened. i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere. what is it? it's our ira. any idea what coulda caused this? maybe.
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i just sorta threw a little money here, a little money there. and i loaded up on something my dentist told me was hot. yeah. ♪
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positive jobs report has lifted the market. up 143 points on the dow. in fact, all 29 members of that 30-member index by bank of america up 4.4%. fairly broad based rally heading into the weekend. google is said to be wrapping up an exclusive event with a handful of entrepreneurs today after two days of presentations and elbow rubbing dinners. jack hillary is one of the lucky entrepreneurs invited to present his big idea to the executives on better ways to get around towns using electric vehicles. jack, thank you for joining us on the program. i imagine not doing your pitch justice there. in essence, what is it? >> good morning, symones. good to be with you. we're here in silicon valley, california. basically what i realized just about two years ago is that electric vehicles are coming. but they're coming in a way that should be very different the way
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that happened in the '90s. instead of having people buy electric vehicles which i don't think is going to happen in big numbers soon, my vision was to have electric vehicles all over the world available to people on demand so that they can just use it when they want to. they can car share it, they can rent it, they can use it in corporate fleets and have them all around the world when they need it wherever they need it. >> to a certain extent, of course, i know you've rolled out that and we have it in some parts manhattan at the home. have you spoken to them? what was the conversation? >> well, it's a very informal gathering. google decided in the sell for x program, the website as we saw for x to gather a number of people who had visions for the future and just kind of toss around ideas for the future, breakthrough ideas, things that can change the world. it's been an interesting informal conversation to how can
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we use technology and an example here is with electric vehicles where the car right now can be connected to the internet. and that's really the first time this has happened, where you can connect a car to the internet. you can know where that car is, you can approach that car, open that car without any keys at all, and then use that car on demand as you want to. it's been really exciting to be with these other entrepreneurs, with the google executives, with all the folks in the room. >> are they putting their money behind some of these projects? what is the hot idea? >> there were a lot of great ideas there. people talked about new kinds of ways of administering dosages of medication. instead of having to take it by mouth or injection, you can have it inside the body and administering the dosage. there are ideas about new kinds of antennas you can place all over the place that don't require a lot of power. there were ideas of breakthrough ideas that involve all kinds of new transportation. so it's been a really great, very, very exciting time at the google conference.
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>> did you get a promise of cash? >> not asking for cash. no, really this is more about connecting with a lot of great people, con nkting with people who can press a lot of buttons to make things happen, connecting with people who have vision. and that's been great. we also talked a lot about, for example, the agriculture and food system. how do we need to change that? our food travels 1500 miles before we eat it, how do we change that? just a lot of great ideas before fr really great visionaries all over the country. >> jack, we'll let you get back into today's session. president is going to be speaking in a bit about the jobs number. plus, an exclusive with the ceo of rousch on the back of that company's bid for alumina.
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moment. you all have to stick around to find out the winner of our nail the number contest, because if you correctly predicted today's big number, obviously a big upside surprise for almost everybody out there, you will be the lucky recipient of a mug autographed by all of us here on "squawk on the street." look at that fine mug. carl do, you feel the tension on
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the floor? >> you know what, it's a nice gesture, i think, on our part but also you get the bragging rights of having picked a number that very few economists saw coming today. don't you think? >> i wonder if it will be the exact number or so near those since it was so out of the rang snnlg. >> do you think somebody would have guessed today's number? that would really be an accomplishment. >> i'm going to tell you guys the gentleperson who won got it on the dot. >> no way. >> yeah. >> did they work on wall street? >> oh, that's all i'm telling you. that's all i'm saying. we will find out in the next hour. >> such a tease, carl. >> what about tonight, melissa? >> on "options action" we had a trade last week on green mountain coffee. right on the money. remember that big surge in green mountain shares. and also we have a trade on disney ahead of its earnings. and we're all following the greek debt deal. things have happened on friday nights in the past. you never know. >> true enough. they said it was hours away on
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wednesday and we know how true that was. we'll see if anyone starts to fade this rally. cramer said he didn't trust it this morning but we're hanging in there. >> may i mention we have some breaking news on greece in the next hour as well. >> all right. let's get to the third hour of "squawk on the street" starts right now. welcome to hour three of "squawk on the street." here's what's happening so far. >> this is the first quarter -- well i can say one bullish for the past couple of years. the corporate profits are starting to show some weakness. and i think that's the most important thing people should be looking agent right now. >> there is a great time to be here in indianapolis. we're privileged to be in the super bowl. and i hope for nbc it becomes the number one watched program in the history of television. january, nonfarm payrolls increase bid 243 thousand jobs. the unemployment rate, 8.3%. >> i think it's a great number.
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it certainly says that we were right to rally. there isn't anything in here that says we were right to sell off. it does say, let's digest. you're watching the opening bells. and wall street, here we go. look at the realtime exchange. >> you have to be cautious with every report. but if you look at the pattern of reports that are coming out, the pattern is definitely indicating that the economy is improving. jobs have been growing now for 23 months in a row. these are welcome numbers. we're excited that we have the numbers moving forward but all the other numbers that look out don't look so prosperous. at the 90 minute mark, here's the markets reason the very big day for job creation. after getting the jobs number this morning dow hanging in with a gain of 136. taken out the 2011 closing high. waiting to see if we'll take out the intraday hyatt 12876. nasdaq up almost 40. s&p at 1341. more than double the march 2009
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lows. there's the look at the russell as well. commodity side, watching gold carefully. after data today, oil as well, brent, copper, and silver, which the trade had been intact after bernanke spoke on the hill yesterday. numbers of the morning. 240 -- 243,000 jobs added last month. falling to 8.3%. in the last three months, employers have added an average of 201,000 jobs a month. that's about double from a few months ago. we'll talk about that. the president is speaking in about 20 minutes as well. and we'll hear those comments live. does bring up a lot of questions though. what should you do with your money? what does it mean for qe? what sectors benefit and what does it mean for housing? we'll answer those questions. joining us now, joe greco, tradered a meridian equity partners. if you've been on the sidelines, does this mean you jump in or is this only a confirmation of where we've already been? >> well, it reconfirms where
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we've been and kind of where we're going to. so i think at this point if you are on the sideline, completely on the sideline you need to get involved. that comes with the caveat. do it maybe in 10, 15, 20% of what your big picture is because you don't want to be caught when the market corrects a little bit. we do think it will correct. >> are you impressed by the way we have not lost the open so far? >> no, not just yet. i got, i heard you just in the last segment talking about sometime around lunch, close of europe. i do tend to think sometime around then we're going to see the market pull back and profit taking. >> what does it mean for qe3 and would bernanke have said what he said yesterday if he had seen this number? which he may have. >> i would like to go back to last week when the language both by bernanke and fed was really more of a cautious tone. we do see improvement. we do feel the jobs are incrementally improving. but we're still concerned. and that should really ring true for the balance of the year where the economy is still on a fray fra jill state. just so we have that incremental improvement. the numbers are skewed to what's
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in the pool, i think people need to keep a leery eye on that. >> we already know what financials have done this year. does a number like this feed those sectors even more or spread the wealth around? >> hopefully a little bit of the latter. we would like to see the wealth spread across the sectors. i do believe in tremendous upside for the financial sector. we're doing so much with so little right now. and you know, any improvement, any inflation i think we're really looking good for financials. from a housing perspective, subject to headline volatility. be a trader there, don't be an investor. >> incredible, the notice of decoupling between our banks and european banks is happening. joe, thanks. joe greco with meridian. the governor of arkansas is here to explain how he's bringing overseas jobs back to his state. kaminski with a great idea of
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how other companies are worth based on facebook's valuation formula. vegas, see how gamblers are betting this sunday on things just beyond the final score. of course, something we're talking about in other circles, iran's potential sputnik moment as they launch a new satellite. successfully launched a domestically built satellite into orbit. analysts say it's such a serious concern because it's very similar technology to what's used in intercontinental ball list tickic missiles. rick santelli with the santelli exchange. he's been digesting jobs, ism and a lot more today, rick? >> i tell you what, carl, don't shoot the passenger. for a millionth time i wish we could create a million jobs a month. okay? and what this report tells us is, if you look at the side with the body counts for job created that pool is growing. but the problem is the amount of jobs is growing but the amount
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of people embedded in this surrounded by the unemployed were taking the unemployed out of the equation. so what we're left with is, a positive picture on creating jobs but we're losing the war in terms of things like adjustments for population. you can call those revisions hogwash but, none the less, the fact of the revision, season revision to population based on census information just means today's numbers are right and previous numbers weren't correct. and we're now making them more correct. you can go for yourself and look for the employment situation that's on the website and here's what i'm concentrating on. i'm at the als website, summary table a. and it's not in labor force. it's right here in black and white. we had 87.8 million last time we looked. after a revisions in adjustments and seasonal changes i have 86.6 that are not in labor force. we lost over a million unemployed. yes, everybody talking abouts a center risks. they're will.
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they made a benchmark revision. that's what they're supposed to do. now, let's switch gears a minute. we heard that part of the quantitative easing an fed structure is to make risk a little more palate tabl to go into the equity markets to raise the prices to invest our way out. uh-uh, there are no free lunches. california state teachers retirement system put out something that is so interesting yesterday that was sent to me. they're making some adjustments to their assumptions. and a couple of those assumptions we need to hit on. it's called the investment return assumption. as of april 2011 they're underfunded to the tune of 56 billion. in order in a process to get that in line they were assuming a 7.75 return on their portfolio. downgraded it to 7.5%. lowering the wage growth assumptions. what does that mean in english? it means that what they're doing is going to make it so the free lunch of making equities go up isn't going to be as real if
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these guys aren't in the equity markets as large. now, the last point we're going to make with data, i'm going to go back to david briefly. when i looked at service sector ism after having the same number four months in a row to see that brake out, that is a positive thing. and service sector is the biggest part of the economy. the markets aren't responding as well as someone expected if they didn't dig down on these numbers is probably what's going on in europe. we're going to tont continue to talk about what's going on in greece and why that might be on friday. weekend effect holding markets back a bit. that's it for me, carl. back to you. >> talk to you in a few minutes. caterpillar bucking the trend a bit when it comes to moving american manufacturing jobs overseas. bringing some of those jobs back to this country. jane wells is live in little rock, arkansas, this morning with the governor of the razor back state. good morning, jane. >> hey, carl, i'm at a $40 million caterpillar plant here in north little rock.
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arkansas, one of two dozen states compete for this plant caterpillar is going to bring back from japan. governor mike bebe joins me this morning. >> you bet. >> you want that plant. why should they pick arkansas? >> arkansas is open for business, particularly in manufacturing. geographically, we're the center of the country. it's a place close to a lot of markets. we've got river transport here. we certainly have the things that you can compete with such as tax structure being important, incentives being important. but in the final analysis of what is more important than anything else is the quality of the workforce. and caterpillar has seen what the quality of this workforce here is. they put, as you mentioned, this plant in a couple years ago. we have close to 600 people working here now. the highly qualified, highly trained, a lot of engineers, a lot of qualifications. in today's manufacturing world, the skill level has to go up. arkansas has been committed to tying education and workforce training to the specific needs
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of business and industry. and particularly manufacturing. nobody in the country is going to do a better job of trying to provide the quality workforce than arkansas. >> that is some of what they're looking for. but caterpillar as you know is going to grind, pun intended, every state to get the best deal it can. >> sure. >> i'm hearing that analysts they may want free land, roads, what can you offer to do it? >> we do an analysis that tries to make sure our taxpayers are getting a bang for their buck. we just don't give it away. we tie a formula to the number of jobs, the quality of those jobs, what those jobs will actually pay, and then based upon those kinds of analyses we determine what kind of incentives we have available. we do have several and we're competitive with other states. obviously it worked here with regard to the location of this plant. we'll be competitive. >> wow knyou know that china's are rising and oil prices are high. how do americans build manufacturing, create manufacturing jobs
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competitively? >> we create them competitively for two or three reasons. the quality of our product ends up being better because the quality of our workforce ends up being better. as you mentioned, as the competition gets closer to what the costs are here because wages are rising and as you know, china's on a five-year plan to increase, i think it is 5% per year on their wages, then americans wage rates become more competitive. and certainly the access to the markets, the proximity, the increased cost of transportation, all lend themselves to creating a more competitive environment in america. what we see v. seen lately are american citizens responding by saying, we're going to buy american. and you see this over and over. we've seen community after community that has asked for information about what is manufactured in the united states creating american jobs. we're going to trend toward those products that are actually manufactured in the usa. >> governor mike beebe. by the way, carl, number one for
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building wind turbine blades. >> turbines and blades in north america. >> and they have a state budget surplus in arkansas. that is something in california i had not heard of in a long time. >> no, it's been a while. great stuff, jane. thank you very much. jane wells joining us from arkansas with governor beebe. capital markets editor taking a look at what tech companies are worth based on facebook's valuation and, wow, why am i looking at a "soul train" logo, gary. >> paul, this past week has gotten a lot of people thinking about 1999, the great tech bubble and in terms of irrational exuberance in terms of multipleses, valuations and all. this week i wanted to have one of these quaunt firms run the numbers. you have to understand in the last decade the two greatest growth of areas in terms of asset allocations has been etfs but also quauntd tantitative mo
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where you put the numbers in a black box and they tell you where things are cheap here's what we found. if you take, again, let's look at google and apple, two very, very big technology companies based on the facebook data. google 17 times pe on 2011 earnings. apple traded roughly 13 times group take most mum approximatelies and say if you just looked at earnings multiples, you basically come up with a value of $13 billion to $17 billion. if facebook's earnings grow, basically 65%, and you took, again, the actual assumptions of what that would be, $1.65 billion in terningses, you would come up with something in valuation area again coming up with the others, $30 billion to $40 billion. revenue numbers, take apple trading at four times 2011 revenue, it's crazy, google trading at five times revenue. you've got the higher revenue
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multiples and some of the smaller tech companies that became public like zynga and linkedin. you assume facebook. you come to the conclusion that facebook is forth 40 or $50 billion. facebook bankers are going to take this company public at a significantly higher level. and i cannot believe i'm going to say this, but if you look at the stuff and, again, i know this is going to show up somewhere crazy today. basically what the answer is, google should be printing 850 right now and apple should be basically printing 1250. what's going to happen there? very simple. either facebook is going to set the tone ala a netscape in 1999 and people will say if this is worth x then something's got to be worth y. or facebook is going to be one and only coming to a valuation, 50 or 60 times expected earnings and multiple revenues that those that do the modeling, that will
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be an additional domain. and you want to know why people talk about 1999, that's why, paul. by the way -- >> your not willing to see which one has to come to the other? >> i made a career investing in things trading at four times revenue and 12 times earnings and the market caught up there. but you know, facebook is going to be a very interesting situation. i got to tell you this. every person i spoke to this week says we're not going to take a chance of not trying to have a 1% percent position in that company. we'll have more on that in the weeks to come. we're going to put it on if you want to look at how they come up with the numbers. paul, it's going to be one of these very interesting dynamics of how it plays out. >> your computer desktop, the "soul train" is that a tributec? >> absolutely. kids of the '70s, i was one of the club kids of the '70s. how could we not make the tragic death of cornecornelius. impacteder. love, peace, and soul. >> back when your afro was
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rocking, i'm sure. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> talk to you later, back at hq. we are expecting the president to speak in the next few minutes on the jobs numbers today. when he does we'll bring it to you live. there's a look at the picture in arlington, virginia. plus, we're revealing the name of the nail the number twitter contest. all you had to do is guess the jobs number exactly right, which one person did. he's going to win that cup. we'll see who it was when we reveal it later this hour. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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the adr for roche holding vsz had an up and down ride in the next month, david faber is standing by, david? >> thanks very much, carl. for an exclusive interview is the ceo of roche. mr. swan, very nice to have you with us this morning, on day of your investment meeting as well. the company recently embarked on an unsolicited offer for the company of the diagnostics and sequencing company alumina. and you're also challenging to gain control of the board of directors. why? >> and if this transaction creates a lot of value for both
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alumina and for roche by combining the two organizations, we can level the roche global footpri footprint, our global customer base, and more importantly, we have know how and expertise to bring chain sequencing primarily in the research lab into the clinical setting. >> you know, this is a very fast-moving area in terms of the technology. and there are those who believe that while alumina has a very significant market presence right now, dominant one in many ways, it will soon be challenged by the life tech, for example, which may be able to offer the sequencing of a human genome for $1,000. are you confident if that, in fact, occurs that illumina will be able to maintain in any way, shape, or form, its price or ability to earn as much money as people think? >> yes, i am. illumina is the leading player
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in the chain sequencing market. and importantly, if you look over the past years, illumina has always been able to progress the technology. indeed, it's a fast-changing -- fast-changing area, but i'm convinced by combining the capabilities of illumina and reporter by further investing into the technologies, we have all it takes to keep ahead of the curve. >> what are people missing then when it comes to that? for example, i will quote cory venter, one of the pioneers to human genome sequencing over the last 20 years, who said, i don't understand why roche would do this deal when the technology is changing so rapidly. i'm puzzled. your response? >> yes, the landscape is changing. it's a fast evolving technology. but i think we have all it takes to stay ahead of the curve by investing into this technology
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and progressing it further into the future. illumina has done it over the last year. i'm confident. >> you're confident at $44.50, that that's a price you're will to pay. are you willing to go higher or do you give pause by the fact that things are changing quickly and earnings at illumina could be under pressure? >> we have looked at the competitive landscape when we made this offer and we feel it is a very attractive, compelling offer which we present full and fair value to the shareholders of illumina. >> roche has a history of being patient and willing to be hostile. is that what we should infer here as well? will you be around for some time? do you think you will be successful in challenging the company's board of directors? >> again, it's a very attractive offer. we are committed to making this transaction happening and the --
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are also at the same time open to enter into constructive dialogue to optimize the strategy. how we can combine the two businesses and come forward together. but at full and fair price. it is attractive. it is compelling for the illumina shareholders. >> that's where our focus was today. appreciate your time with us. thank you. >> carl, back to you. >> thanks, david. the bells are about to sound across europe. we're going to hit those numbers when we come right back.
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stocks off close to the highs of the session. haven't faded after the monster open we got. the european close coming in about 30 second or so. waiting for the president to speak in arlington, virginia, and -- when he comes, he's expected to address the jobs number at the top of his remarks. we'll bring that to you live. meanti meantime, we're working our way to the european close. it would make sense this afternoon if we were going to lose some steam it would happen as europe went to bed and started their weekend.
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but the trend has not been consistent for this week. >> huge amount. it's game on in athens this weekend. that's clear. and that will drive potentially the tail end of the session here. we will talk about that. >> european markets are closing now. 12k3w >> the fact that they've had such good economic data in the united states has really pulled -- might not pull wall street substantially high we, it certainly has across europe. the united states remains the engine of growth and you can see in the national indices the way we've bounced higher through the session notably the employment report came through. let's have a look at the recession charts, guys, and just come in with those closing figures. there you go. see what i mean? substantial moves there. it's the big exporting stocks in europe that have done well today. a v. a look at the german automotive name. daimler, absolutely rocketing today as you can see. it's a broad-based rally. most of the big issues in the indices. the banks are up there with the exporting stocks. have a look at where we are in
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france. you will see there, societe generale. let's go to the president of the united states talking a the jobs number today. >> thank you, guys. thank you so much. everybody, please have a seat. well, good morning, everybody. >> good morning. >> jacob, thank you for that introduction. more importantly, thank you for your extraordinary service to our country. i want to acknowledge two outstanding members of my cabinet who are here today, secretary of veterans affairs, rick is in the house, also one of our finest. hips o himself, one of our finest veterans and obviously an extraordinary leader when he was in our army. and i also want to acknowledge interior secretary kim salazar who is in the house.
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and we're joined by another president, the international association of firefighters president, harold shafenburger is here. now, this is a fire station that holds some special significance for our country. on september 11th, the firefighters of this house were among the first to respond to the attack on the pentagon. you guys answered this nation's call during its hour of need. and in the years that followed, as americans went to war. some of you answered that call, as well. at today's 9/11 generation of veterans has already earned a special place in our history. our veterans and all the brave men and women who serve our country are the reason why
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america's military is the greatest in the history of the world. in the face of great odds and grave danger, they get the job done. they work as a team. they personify the very best that america has to offer. that's true on the battle front, but we're here today because it's also true on the home front. after a decade of war, our nation needs to do some building right here in the united states of america. now, this morning we received more good news about our economy. in january american businesses added another 257,000 jobs. the unemployment rate came down because more people found worker.
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all together we've added 3.7 million jobs over the last 23 months. now, these numbers will go up and down in the coming months. there are still far too many americans who need a job or need a job that pays better than the one they have now. but the economy is growing stronger. the recovery is speeding up. we've got to do everything in our power to keep it going. we can't go back to the policies that led to the recession and we can't let washington stand in the way of our recovery. we want washington to be helping with the recovery, not making it tougher. the most important thing that congress needs to do right now is to stop taxes going up on 160 million americans at the end of this month. they've got to renew the payroll tax cut they've extended for a
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couple of months. they need to pass an extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance and do it without drama, without delay without linking it to some ideological side issues. they just need to get it done. shouldn't be that complicated. now is not the time for self-inflicted wounds to our economy. now is the time for action. so i went to send a clear message to congress, do not slow down the recovery that we're on. don't muck it up. keep it moving in the right direction. beyond preventing a tax hike we need to do more to create an economy that will be built to last. to restore american manufacturing, stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship overse overseas. give those tax breaks to people right here in the united states
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of america. that makes a lot of sense. to reduce our dependency on foreign oil, we need to stop subsidizing oil companies that are already making record profits and double down on clean energy that creates jobs and creates opportunities and new industries but also improves our security because we're not as dependent on foreign oil. to make sure our businesses don't have to move overseas to find skilled workers we've got to invest in education, make sure college is affordable for every hardworking american. and the reason we're here today we need to make sure that as our troops return from battle they can find a job when they get home. that's what i want to talk about today. the war in iraq is over.
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the war in afghanistan the moving to a new phase. we're transitioning to afghan lead. over the past decade nearly 3 million service members had transitioned back to civilian life and more are joining them every day. when these men and welcome home. they bring unparalleled skills and experience. folks like jacob, they've saved lives in some of the toughest conditions imaginable. they've tracked millions of dollars of military assets. they've handled pieces of equipment that are worth tens of millions of dollars. they do incredible work. nobody's more skilled, more precise, more diligent, more disciplined, our veterans are some of the most highly trained,
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highly educated, highly skilled workers that we've got. these are americans that every business should be competing to attra attract. >> all right, sure sounds like the president has done at least addressing the economic data from this morning. he says the job numbers like that are going to go up and down but in his words, the economy is speeding up. calls on congress to extend the payroll tax cuts. says do it without drama and without delay. and his words, don't muck it up. and he says all this, of course, as the nasdaq sits at an 11-year high today. s&p up 100% from its march 2009 lows. and the dow threatening to take out its 2011 intraday high. i think we're going to john harwood in washington if i'm not mistaken to sort of recap what the president said and talk about, john, where it leads political discussion into the she and into the fall. >> carl, this is an exceptionally sweet moment for the white house because the physics of a presidential
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incumbent running for re-election are, when you get news like this after what the country's been through, everything you say sounds a little bit true ir, more people hear it, your arguments resonate better when you go after the other side and you say congress don't muck it up. it's been working in the reverse throughout much of 2009 and 2010 because people felt things getting worse or at least not getting better in any way they could appreciate and, therefore, the opposition arguments get amplified and people tend to say, wait a minute, what this guy is doing isn't working. the president and his advisors have always said they need to know the people that the country is on in right path. even if unemployment is higher than it was when he took office. now he's gotta right path to talk about so you heard language from him like the recovery is accelerating. that shows a level of optimism that we saw reflected, carl, in that nbc "wall street journal" poll a few days ago. that was reflected also in
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rising numbers for this president which i think they have every right to expect as we sit today that those rise will continues to some degree. >> there are obviously lots of arguments that mitt romney and the gop can still make, earnings in this country still not keeping pace with inflation. where do they -- what do they rely on even as the numbers on surface look pretty good? >> you saw them straining today to adjust their arguments against the administration. you saw from mitt romney a statement saying, we welcome these good numbers but the president is still blocking a true long-term economic recovery. john boehner, the speaker said we need to change course because the president's policies haven't worked as advertised. that's a different thing from saying they haven't worked which is what the republican message has been before. again, just as the president feels the wind at his back in terms of the debate with the other side, republicans now have a little bit of wind in their face. doesn't mean they don't have a strong argument on the economy.
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you still have a majority of the people in the country saying they were headed in the wrong direction. but the more that diminishes, the more positive the prospects are for innocent president. >> john, thank you for that. john harwood in washington today. as we resume talking about the european close, simon, i see the ftse 100 back above 5900. first time since july. >> it's all about america. it's all about that engine of growth. we need to talk about what's happening in greece. we seem to be reaching potentially an end game there. certainly a lot is now beginning to happen. we have pictures of the greek finance minister starting his meeting earlier. they have a very uncompromising message they're dlifing suggest that greece has not done enough to reform itself and there needs to be wage cuts. we're not sure the prime minister who used to be a member of the ecb can force through those wage cuts. certainly the labor unions and employer federation are in rebellion over that. if the wage cuts and fence cuts
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don't come, then that stalls the entire process. at the same time, the out going ceo of deutsche bank is going to arrive in athens this weekend representing the private creditors. that situation is also becoming more complicated because in order for them to do a deal, to bring the debt to gdp down through the restructuring to 120%, they have a gap of 15 to 20 billion euros and the politicians certainly had a meeting in berlin just now between the aaa rated countries in the eurozone, netherlands suggesting they're not prepared to come through with any more money for the greeks that was not onlially agreed at the last summit. how do you fill that 15, 20 bill i don't know euro gap? it appears they're pushing it right back on the ecb who will have to take some sort of losses. or more accurately, promise in the future, lots of profit from any rebound there might be in those bonds. there's a lot of factors here, carl that are coming through and
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there's a lot of pressure points that ultimately might fail. >> right. speaking of which it could be another weekend of waiting in terms of headlines regarding greece and europe. we've got breaking news this morning from michelle caruso-cabrera who joins us by phone in london. what's going on? >> it will be a weekend of waiting, carl, because there are numerous meetings in athens starting tomorrow between all the various constituencies that simon has been talking about. i want to address one story about whether or not the prime minister of greece had threatened to resign because the members of the parliament were refusing to go along with cutting wages, cutting of the minimum wage, et cetera, in an effort to make grease more competitive. the prime minister's office refused to comment on the issue. i can say this from an analytical perspective, it would not be surprising if i were true because, remember, he was brought into office to accomplish two things, the private sector involvement that simon was talking act and also getting a program approved by
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his government that would please his lenders of last resort, the ecb, ift and european union and they refused to go along with it. there is another meeting tomorrow. and sources within the government say they are looking forward to an agreement, but we are waiting. the situation has become incredibly circular. you don't get the private sector involvement unless you get the deal because they're putting up the 15 cents and cash sweetener for the psi but the imf says they won't do the deal unless they get the psi and it goes round and round and round again trying to close this gap. >> the finance anyone center in berlin says there might be a full meeting of the eu leaders next week. clearly they feel it's something they have to deal with. from your analysis from having spent so long in grease, if they cannot get the wage cuts through the rest of the political parties and therefore he does resign, where does that leave greece? >> well, that's pretty much a mess, right, because then you have to have elections.
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it's not clear that even though you have party saying they would like elections, they don't necessarily want them because it's such an awful moment to be a leader in the country and anything you do is going to be unpopular. so it really becomes an absolute mess. they're trying to find other options around that, right? one of the things the efff could simply say, you know, we had the previous interest rate on your loans is going to be 4%. we're going to cut it now to 2% or lower as a way to make up the difference as they look forward to trying to get that debt to gdp ratio down. there are other options. hopefully it won't come to that. >> okay. michelle, thank you for that. we know you will be working it all weekend long. michelle caruso-cabrera joining us by phone from london. we may or may not get it over the weekend, simon. >> if we don't get it -- the amount of noise that's coming out, if we don't get it by the end of the weekend, i think that would seem to be quite serious. there's a full leader summit, we have a severe problem to deal with.
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meanwhile, rick santelli is going to keep an eye on that state address today. rick? what's on your mind? >> i have two smart guys here. let melee the groundwork. post number one of our observations is you have 13 basis points in tens and 30s higher yield. it hasn't changed the relative value relths ship. why haven't yields moved up more? my contention is the fed and the programs and the fact they own how many treasuries agencies of mortgage security, ira? >> trillion. >> with a "t." >> what do you guys think? if the fed wasn't involved in all the things they've been involved in a number like this would probably see a big response but will rates generally be higher, what do you think? >> i would say yeah, deaf lit. >> i would definitely say. we don't know though but that's my argument about why the treasury market is broken because the fed is in there. that's a lot of demand created in that. not only that, let's talk about how global credit markets work
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on repo. if they're taking all that good collateral out it's hard to get a read on what real values are. >> here's what i would say if if we could all agree on that, get down to the real nitty-gritty which is by how much. and i think what we're seeing today is that the market is still hanging in there. so this process is still going on, is distorting the market? you bet. it's going to come down to by how much. the question we were talking about is is it time to fight the fed, is it time to lean against the heavy -- >> you say yes. >> i sago for it. go play anywhere else. >> it was not a good year for me trying to fight the fed. when the market gives me the signal, you know what, we're still operating jackson hole 2010 when ber nang delivered his famous portfolio balance channel, wee we are there and, in fact, i would argue we're actually making big roads into it today. >> as angelo done dundee used t,
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passed away. >> right after he puts vaseline over your eye. tell ferry that's on tape, we're going to come back to it if we have to. >> take care. >> see you later. when we come back, ceo of domino's pizza. capitalize on one of the biggest days of the year and how the view of customer service is going. take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive, and available to all. distill all that data. make information instinctual, visual. introducing trade architect, td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. take control of your portfolio today. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up $600 when you open an account. trade commission-free for 60 days, [ male announcer ] ylord of the carry-on.. sovereign of the security line. you never take an upgrade for granted.
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the players and the fans are not the only ones gearing up for the super bowl. it is a busy day of the year for
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piece pizza candidates. they want to sell 1.4 million pizza buys on game day. shares of domino's looked good last year. on "squawk on the street" today the company's president and ceo patrick doyle joins us. always good to see you, patrick. good morning. >> thanks, carl. you, too. >> we're talking, i think, about 11 million slices on game day, which is an 80% increase from regular sunday? >> yeah, that's exactly right. that's a lot of pizza. we'll do nearly double our normal volume so that means double the people, double the pepperoni. people order early and they order often. >> how do you dress rehearse for something like that? >> you know, it's a lot of training. i mean, really, you've got to have the team organized. everybody needs to know what their position is in the store. and it's something that we work on for really a month beforehand to make sure we're getting it
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right. it comes in incredibly fast. there's a period of an hour, hour and a half where the volume is pretty extraordinary. >> where are you at that time? are you at corporate? is there a war room? how does that work? >> there is. we get about 50 technology guys into a room, actually, monitoring everything going on, making sure that the online ordering system is working. i think last year we took like 170,000 orders online over a couple hours. that team will be there. the store teams will be out there. it's pretty extraordinary for us. it's a lot of fun. >> i'm sure it is. i'm sure it's nicer later when you can count the revenues. speaking of which, the guidance from some of your come president -- come presidecompetitors lik john's is not that great. they went from 3, 4, 1 1/2, to 2 1/2. worries about losing share to the likes of you or pizza hut or
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is this about dairy prices rising? what do you think accounts for that? >> actually dairy has been easing off a bit. so commodities have been a little bit better to us. no, we actually think the category is getting a little bit better. you know, we've only released through the end of third quarter last year so i can't get into specifics. what we see with the category overall is we think it continues to improve a little bit. employment is important. employed people buy more pizza than unemployed people. when i see a lit bit of movement on unemployment numbers, that's -- that's net a positive. and so we think it's getting a little bit better out there. >> yeah. you got to be encouraged by what you saw today. a lot of food service companies, restaurants, mcdonald's, especially, pivot heavily around employment. does today's number lead you to change anything in your thinking? >> not a big enough move yet. there are some areas of the
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country. we were headquartered in michigan. unemployment in michigan is down almost 5% from the worst point in the recession. in some regions we'll feel it more than others. overall, it's not a big enough mood yet that it drives much but it's getting better. >> we've seen a lot of companies struggle with the discounting dynamic. olive garden, a lot of retailers over the holiday season. do you feel like you're going to have to discount less this year or more or how much? >> consumers are still demanding value and we're going to give them value and commodities easing off a little bit help that. you know, a bit more than last year. a lot of commodity pressure, snore level margins a little bit squeezed, particularly in the summer from commodities. consumers still need value. we're going to give them value. i don't think i see a big change in that year over year. but that's something we watch very, very carefully as the year
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goes on. >> patrick, have a great time this weekend. good luck on sunday. >> thanks, carl. >> patrick doyle, president and ceo of domino's. of course, the game on nbc. coverage begins at noon. kickoff at 6:29 eastern time. take you to washington, d.c. right now. half s hampton pearson with breaking news. >> new york attorney general is announcing a major lawsuit against the nation's largest banks for deceptive and fraudulent use of the electronic mortgage registry system. the lawsuit asserts that employees -- agents of bank of america, jpmorgan chase, wells fargo and others acting as certifying officers have repeatedly submitted court documents containing false and misleading information that made it appear that the foreclosuring part had the authority to bring the case when, in fact, they may not have. this lawsuit filed by the new york attorney general also goes on to assert that the system has effectively eliminated homeowners and the public's
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ability to track property transfers through traditional -- the traditional public record system. quoting the new york a.g. now, quote, the banks created the system as an end run around the properly recording system to facilitate the rapid securitization and sales of mortgages. something we're told in the neighborhood of 70 million mortgages are registered as part of the system. also keep in mind by the way, carl, that attorney general snyderman was named this week to head the president's housing task force, if you will, and also a question as to how this lawsuit might impact those ongoing efforts to get some sort of a settlement to much of the mortgage mess that has plagued the housing industry these last few years. >> we know how difficult it is to get the various states, various ags on board behind one agenda. this is one ag. we should be clear about that, hampton. not a group. >> it is the new york attorney
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general filing this particular action, yes. >> and i guess it comes at a time more broadly, hampton, just to broaden it out, when the solutions to housing are being tossed around, frequently and even as we've seen a lot of housing stocks come back. the financials come back and sort of adds a little edge to that, those stock rises. >> yes. when you look at the housing economy, gradual signs of improvement but you also look at this. does this help or hurt, you know, the leverage on the respective sides of trying to get to, if you will, kind of the global equivalent of a settlement for all the housing misery that's out there. >> okay. hampton, as we look at some of the housing makers on the board, thank you very much for bringing us that great news out of washington, d.c. meanwhile, you've been sending in your tweets all morning. guessing the nonfarm payroll number. it is winner time. this follower tweeted his one and only guess two days ago. not only did he get closest to today's surprising jobs number.
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he nailed it on the cnbc news line. our winner from orlando, florida. brian healy. good morning. >> good morning, carl. >> 243. what gave you the confidence to go with that? >> it was just a guess. i knew it would be around 200. i was hoping because the economy has been picking up. but it was just a guess. >> i have to imagine even you figured it might have been -- if you were going to get it wrong, you were going get it wrong on the high side, right? >> yeah, yeah, i was going high, yep. >> are you active in stocks? do you trade a lot? >> yeah, i've been trading since '97. up and down. >> how is this year shaping up for you? where do you think, just out of curiosity, where do you think markets are going? obviously they're still digesting this number. but if numbers like this continue to come along, you could argue that the bulls have an argument to make here? >> yeah, it's looking really good. hope it keeps up. >> what's your favorite holding
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right now? >> oh, well, i bought apple at $12 back in 2001. that's probably my favorite. >> and did you -- have you hung on to it for this whole time? >> i hung on to about a quarter of that. i've been selling it on the way up. actually bought some more the other day. >> your cost basis is no longer $12. >> not anymore. i wish i would have bought more back then. >> when people hear that they must be incredibly jealous. any names we might already be familiar with? >> i've been going with a lot of the high dividend payers. >> what does it mean -- sorry. go ahead. >> the utilities, at&t, because last year was kind of tough, you know, we headed towards dividends back last year. >> yeah. we're seeing lots of rotation as we've crossed the calendar. what does it mean to you to have the mug? what are you going to do with it? please don't say throw it away? >> oh no. i'm a big fan


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