tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC October 12, 2012 4:00am-6:00am EDT
. this is today's "worldwide exchange." >> these are your headlines from around the world. >> joe biden and paul ryan turn up the heat. trading blows oefrg from foreign policy to jobs and taxes. >> it shouldn't be surprising for a guy who says 47% of the american people are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives. >> romney's a good man. he cares about 100% of americans in this country. >> oecd chief tells cnbc spain's prime minister isn't asking because there's a real fear
leaders would possibly say no. and investors hang up on japanese. it may be too costly. >> plus jpmorgan and wells fargo are set to report third quarter results. this is the last trading day of the week here. and we have the i-8 report out that sees pricing easing. they have lowered their growth forecast, though. and it says iran exports hit a new low in september. so there's obviously a bit of a difference between what's going on in the short term forecast and the longer term, as well. so they're looking at annual
supply growth of #.5 million barrels a day, average oil demand growth of 1.1 million a day. so over the next five years, sluggish economy will slow oil demand growth and more oil put into the economy. nevertheless, nymex is up because they talk about as well this morning spiking higher anyway. and we've seen brent surprisingly up near 116, 15.60, as well. so the iranian exports hitting a new low in september may just be helping that spike up. >> iea says supply risk whether iran, iraq, are still a fact of life in the oil market. nevertheless it does see opec spare capacity more than doubling in the next five years. >> there's a difference between that five year forecast and the short term. so we'll talk about the oil markets.
also plenty more to come on today's show, as well. >> we'll find out why howard mark says gold is not an intelligent investment. we'll also hear from the chief exec tip of infosys. find out why the investors didn't like the latest results. plus we'll catch up with the world trade organization. and later in the show, we let a democrat and republican fight it out on our air over who won last neat's vice presidential debate. but it's a subjective view. >> can we get that the testimony thinks the democrat won and republican thinks the republican won. we'll see. but in any case, joe biden and paul ryan did come out swinging. they were confrontaticonfron confrontati
confrontational frequently interrupting each other and making pointed issues. here's one example. >> you can cut tax rates by 20% and still preserve the important prfshss for middle class taxpayers -- >> not mathematically possible. >> it is. it's been done before. >> it's behas never been done before. now you're jack kennedy. >> the two men at the top of the ticket will meet on tuesday at hofstra university in new york. we know of course it's a town hall format because there had been a lot of speculation over what questions might be asked. it's always interesting to see the public put in questions to the candidates instead of just the moderate during this case. >> yes, some people say the moderator was more beneficial to biden last night. not quite sure if that was true. >> what's hard for us over here is that the debate which is at 9:00 eastern time for us starts at 2:00 in the morning. so we have to wake up and try and rely on accounts.
>> what is amazing to me is how warmly they greet each other and behind the smiles, they're saying i'll beat your brains out. >> we do the same thing, don't we? >> yes. this is a total act. behind it, we hate each other. fortunately, we do like our next guest, head of research at credit suisse 3r50iprivate bank. as an investor as we watch the maturation of the u.s. election campaign, what actually matters some. >> the fiscal cliff. obviously many things matter at the more detailed level, as well, but we're all worried about how that will be sorted out and the way that the white house goes, the way congress goes is pretty critical to that. >> have you heard anything from anybody that made you more comfortable, or is it just a big -- how do we price it in? >> when we talk to investor, the line we're getting is people
believe that everything will be sort of all right on the night and that some neat compromise will be found. and that is the best central guess, but that's still worrying because it means you've got some if you like good news in the market and if things were to go wrong hfr- >> how would we price things going wrong? >> we would see a selloff in all sorts of assets. clearly in stocks and treasuries could go either way. but who knows. >> obviously we have to find out whether each party will budge on these core issues. we asked john mccain about this and we'll get into that. first what was your reaction to last night's debate, was there a clear winner? vote the in our online poll which has already generated more than 130,000 votes. actually joe biden is currently in the lead with more than half of the votes. initially last night paul ryan was. >> paul ryan supporters got going very quickly and then the
biden votes have taken over. >> i believe the margin is 52%. >> and then there's a bunch of people somewhere in the middle, i guess. but that's in the an insubstantial number of votes. >> so we'll see if we can hit 140,000 by the end of the show. not just us clicking over here. you can tell us what you thought on twitter, too. michael tweeting in to say what joe biden lacks in substance he makes up for by interrupting and talking over his opponent. voicing the view of many apparently from last night. katie says biden simply yells too much. do you agree? join the conversation. you can e-mail worldwide at cnbc.com, @cnbcwex, or reach us directly. jpmorgan will report at 7:00 a.m. eastern. the company is expected to earn $1.22 a share on $24.5 billion revenue. the bank is expected to benefit from higher revenues for mortgage lending and fixed income capital markets.
investors will also be listening for further comments about how jpmorgan is dealing with the trading loss. wells fargo will also report at 8:00 a.m. that bank expected to earn 87 cents a share and revenues about $21.4 billion. they're making and buying more loans. both company shares are lower. jpmorgan 1.3% lower, wells down by about half a percent. earlier this week, jpmorgan boss jamie dimon said the government should bank jpmorgan for bailing out bear stearns. i asked john mccain if he agreed with that. >> i don't thank mr. dimon for anything. i think the major firms on wall street did very, very well by doing good. the profits are at an all time high. the dodd-frank bill was to make
institutions never again to be too big to fail. are you telling me mr. dimon isn't too big to fail is this so it's been a disaster. mr. dimon has done very well. >> do you agree with sandy weill that the big universal bank model is a failed model and that perhaps big banks should be broken up? >> i'm not sure they should be broken up, but we on ought to go looking, see what we did with dodd-frank, allegedly the purpose of it was that no institution would ever be too big to fail. does anybody believe that? of course not. >> you can catch the rest of that interview a little bit later in the program. i also did ask senator mccain about the looming fiscal cliff, tax rates and how he thinks bernanke has performed so well. you won't want to miss it. giles is still with us and i'm curious having heard that exchange what you think about senator mccain's reaction there p. is he right that the government shouldn't have anything to thank jpmorgan for and the bank has simply benefitted from all the
policies since the financial crisis? >> i think he was stressing that as it were that bank along with many others has navigated their way through the crisis and obviously that has had a stability effect on the system overall. i mean, i think the word thanks is a kind of difficult one here, but it's clear that world banking systems if we look at the u.s. now functioning very much better. if you look at the fed survey, they're much more willing to lend than they were, and i think that actually helps the u.s. economy recover here at this very important moment. >> certainly the u.s. continues to be one of the favorite economies when investors look around the world in spite of the fact that perhaps it hasn't gone exactly as planned. >> meanwhile over in tokyo, the imf is not letting up on its grim outlook on its growth in asia. it's lowering to below 4%. but asia still has what it takes to power the world's economy and it money is on china avoiding a
hard landing and on a japanese recovery helped by further easing. kadri has been there all week and joins us once again. how have these imf comments gone down? >> well, i think the manufacturing today theity that we have says no global economy has been immune to the dead crisis of the eurozone, but generally the people that i speak to recognize the slow down in asia and in china. but there was some criticism saying the situation is more critical than it was a couple months back. here's what the head of the esm hd to say.
>> i think the imf in general has not given us enough credit for all the program we're making in europe, the emf stability report for example says risks in europe now are higher than six months ago. i think the imf is a bit behind the curve here and talking to investors in tokyo, which is the main reason i'm here which is to familiarize them with the new nugs, they confirm to me they consider risks have desclined in recent months. >> and will they or won't they as far as spain is concerned. is this the concern investors around the world have had over the last couple of weeks. the secretary general of the oecd had this to say about that. >> you did not want to question
for the program, but you've been told you have to go and do that. you agonize over two or three months and then you say we'll go and then you're given very strong signals that if you go, you'll betold, no. so how can you reconcile those two things? >> it's not all pessimism. australia recession free for 21 years and virtually expected to be on a steady economic growth past despite headwinds coming from all around the world. i did have a chance to speak to wayne swan in his country. >> expecting growth next year and for that reason, we spend to bring our budget back to surplus and we have lower interest rates. and because many of these noncore companies are shouldering a lot of the burden,
that's why it's perth nept for the imf to embark on these reform which is they pledge back in 2010. which will give china a bigger voice in the decision making process. and that process has been delayed somewhat. but christine lagarde saying that over the next couple months, she hopes to get some break through on that front. back to you. >> thanks for that. spain's finance minister is insisting there is for political resistance to a potential bailout and that madrid dris stl trying on decide whether to ask for one or not. >> i think spain issue is obviously in the balance. but if spain does ask for bailout, then it would get the support to its bond yields and bond yields will come down. if it doesn't ask for a bailout, bond investors know that there's that threat of them asking for
one. so i don't think bond yields can go up that high in spain because of that. >> at the same time, there's the ten year, 5.73%. so it has moved around. is there not still a problem here? >> the yields are not far out of line that spain had in the old days. they're not crazy levels. the interesting thing is we're quite close to these yields breaking down through quite important chart levels around 550. and as i say, minute looking to short these yields has a problem because about if they're too aggressively successful at shorting them, then spaen is forced into the -- >> if the yields sit roughly here, this isn't necessarily pressure to ask for a bailout. >> i think that's right. the spanish government sits there and over time likely yields will come done. it may take six months or more, but you look at the cds spread
which is have come right in, clearly people feel -- >> we're looking at moody's coming out and it looks like spain will probably be rated as sub investment grade or junk. could that be a trigger some because then actually there will be tirms who have to get out of the debt regardless of whether they think there's a bailout. >> and certainly we've had an internal discussion around that and i think the effect of that is as to make it difficult for t the yields to go up. >> all right. giles will stick around. plenty more thoughts in just a bit. >> we're just over an hour and, what, 16 minutes in to the trading day. european stocks right now are weighted to the town side a little bit. around about 6:4. as far as ftse 100 is concerned, not major losses. just down six points is where we
stand at the moment. ibex is up nearly half of 1%. we saw spanish bond yields, as well. aches yields w auction yields were up for the three year. so no real pressure emanating there. euro-dollar 1.2976. so no big moves. dollar-yen slightly firmer. back off the low 1.48. sterling-dollar slightly firmer. but on a 24 hour basis, not big moves on the currency markets. let's find out what's happening in asia.
>> mixed day of trade for asian bourses. promising u.s. jobless claims data helped sentiment, but investors remained cautious ahead of the chinese trade figures tomorrow and the gdp data due next week. the chinese deposit managed to eek out modest gains strength ening gains in construction stocks. publishers also surged. the first chinese national to win the literature prize. blue chips helped the index. the nikkei had the worst weekly fall in five months down 3.7% on the week to end at a fresh two month low. retailing tumbled following down beat earnings forecast. soft bank plunged 17% on concerns that the nearly $13 billion deal to buy sprint
controlling stake would be too costly. more on that coming up. but gains in exporters capped big losses thanks to a weaker yen. samsung and hyundai continued to weigh on the south korean market, but health care and consumers lent support to the kospi ending on on the flat line. australian market ended in the green helped by miners, but billabong shares slumped after a private equity firm walked away from the takeover bid. sensex lower by 0.4% at the moment. back to you. >> thanks for that. still to come, is the global slowdown good or bad for india's top i.t. outsourcing companies? shares are down by infosys. we'll be joined by the ceo. bob...
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uncertainties, spoobing markets even more. infosys actually reported 24% rise in quarterly profit thanks to cost cutting measures by clients in europe. and for more, we're joined first on cnbc by ceo and managing director. thanks for joining us. you see the market reaction to the earnings. what do you think investors should be focusing on in terms of the growth strategy that you're planning from here? >> we have been on this over the last many quarters. early indication of the journey. our revenues volume grew by 3.8%. our revenue productivity marginally come done by 0.2%,
but more importantly, we had six large tail winds. two of them more than $220 million. both of them led by infrastructure deals. so we have very good traction. q2 was a very good squaur. if you look at the product environment space, more than 100 million. this is a new business which we started over the last three, four quarters. we are opposed to have a million dollars on our platforms. if you look at client relations, we have 32 new clients in q2 and many of them in the -- segment. so if you look at the indicators, all of them indicate
that our specific execution of the direction has early resistance. at the same time, we've said that we are in a challenging economic environment. but we are investing for the future. increasing our revenue from europe and integration. that is not factored into the guidance because the deal is not closed. what does all this mean? early indicators indicate that our execution is yields
business. we are confident over the long term. >> your dollar averages are flat. what's going on with your customers at the moment? are they taking a lot longer to make investment decisions and is that giving you less visibility about future guidance? >> there are two parts to the answer. if you look at this quarter, 98% of our revenue came from prepaid business. so we to look at what they are thinking. at the same type, it is a challenging environment. that is reducing the ability to take decisions, reducing the ability to look clearly on large opportunities.
and that does have an impact on our business. >> can i pitch in with a question here? do you you feel that structurally over the next two, three years you will see significant on shoring back into the u.s.? do you see that as a threat or an opportunity? >> if you look at our aspiration to be a balanced portfolio, one of the portfolios which we are expecting requires local talent. that is the way you can grow because you cannot go into germany and not have germans to it. so you are specific direction requires us to increase our presence in the local market. so this last quarter we've
included people on site so we can recruit on site and integrate local communities to increase our abilities on site. so for that includes in the local markets is very much in line with our direction. >> and you mentioned wage costs. we're running 6% in india. so is it your expectation that wage costs will keep running at the current rate in terms of the pace of which they're going up or will it be pressure for them to go even higher? >> unemployment 3.5%, so there is still demand for people in the industry.
and the compensation actually -- s the demand for people continues, there will be pressure on the compensation. >> all right. thank you so much for joining us, ceo and md of infosys joining us first here on cnbc. and coming up after the break, we'll talk about japan's soft bank. it is in advanced talks to buy majority stake in sprint nextel.
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vice presidential debate trading blows on everything. >> shouldn't be surprising for a guy who says 47% of the american people are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives. >> romney's a good man p he caress about 100% of americans in this country. >> oecd chief tells cnbc spain's prime minister isn't asking for aid because there's a real fear eu leaders would diter or possibly say no. >> investors hang up on soft bank fearing its plan may be too
costly. >> and a big day as jpmorgan and wells fargo get set to report third quarter results. take a look at the bond space. we're seeing perhaps the ten year in spain moving lower. in fact yields moving lower across the board. tells you there's more going on other than just risk on. bund just under 1.5%. this despite the fact or because of the fact that ecb is out there talking about inflating away debt is not an option. nevertheless, ten-year in spain, 5.72% yield on that. italy just trying to nose below the 5% level holding steady
there for time being and the ten year gilt at 1.77%. >> and as far as currency markets are concerned, euro-dollar kind of where we were this time yesterday. 129.66. sterling-dollar a little firmer. dollar slightly up against the yen. shares in japan soft bank are lower today following news it's in advance talks to buy 70% stake in sprint. three are considering a loan to fund the deal. hampton pearson has more. >> sprint nextel may be the third largest carrier in the states, but it has fewer than half the subscribers of verizon wireless. also $21 billion in long term debt. that was after restructuring and signing long term $15 billion deal to buy apple iphones in order to compete with the big boys. sprint is confirming overnight that it's in advance talks with soft bank for a deal worth just shy of $13 billion which would
give soft bank a 70% stake in the company. the other 30% would remain a publicly traded company in the u.s. if this deal comes through, it will be the largest japanese investment ever. it would strengthen it balance sheet and maybe help it take over some smaller regional carriers. just last week, sprint expressed interest in bidding for metro pcs. they're a prepaid carrier that agreed in principal to be bought out by t-mobile, a division of german deutsche telecom, of course. one potential sticking point to the deal for soft bank, the status of clearwire cooperation, a separate company largely owned by sprint. but sprint doesn't control it and that's what softbank wants because its spectrum is what so softbank uses in japan. sure to be more negotiations.
>> joining us is ed rogers. i don't know, is it audacious? it's certainly complicated. how do you think it will pan out? >> this is a fascinating deal. i think it's fascinating for two reasons. first of all, is this a statement about investment opportunities in the wireless market in the united states and taking on the big two, if you will, or is this more of a statement about how much money there is sitting in japan trying to find a home someplace. you know, why is softbank doing this deal, who will finance a $13 billion deal. that's as interesting as the deal itself to be honest with you. >> giles is nodding his head. but you're suggesting there is so much cash sitting around, eventually it is finally coming on out. investors have got fed up with earning nothing. >> absolutely. absolutely.
somebody will finance this deal. softbank doesn't have the money in the bank. so, again, it's a $13 billion deal. this is an enormous deal. and i think the implications globally of japan having an enormous amount of cash on on the sidelines and the united states and europe, there are a number of companies that are desperate for cash, large companies. makes for a very interesting another come up elf years. >> this would be the largest ever takeover by a japanese company or the u.s. one. do you think it is just the beginning of a kind of tsunami of similar things out of japan and indeed more m&a activity everywhere, or is it really just a one off. >> this is absolutely the shape of thing tsz to come. there's been increasing deal activity out of japan, let me be clear, japanese buying overseas companies. corporate japan recently the
number was of total value of topics, 44% of the market cap is currently held in cash. there's an enormous amount of cash here. it's looking for a home. there will be domestic m&a and very interesting overseas deals yet to come. and i would speculate this is not going to be the smallest of those deals potentially. >> what's interesting as well is the bank's putting up the money. does that suggest they're in much better shape than we thought they were? >> absolutely. it tells you two things. first of all, there's all this money in japan that's in jgbs earning less than nothing as far as interest is concerned. this cash needs to go someplace and it needs to start making a return and deals such as this will get financed because it's far better to do this than leave your money in the bank. corporate japan, the banking system here, there's almost no
leverage. there's so much unused capital sitting on the sidelines. >> the other interesting thing here is that the yen, the strength of the yen, which just wouldn't foe away, which is bad news for japanese companies in terms of their profitability, but it makes them very powerful predators. the yen is a great takeover weapon here. >> absolutely. at 77, 78, wherever we are, japan is flush with cash, overseas investments are incredibly cheap. think about it p. they're 40%, 50% cheaper than they were. this is a fantastic time to buy an overseas asset. >> good to speak to you. have a great weekend. next week china will kick
off its data blitz when it supports twrad figures tomorrow. and monday china's latest inflation results. thursday the country reports third quarter gdp. monday we'll bring you interviews with christine lagarde and icici bank. >> a lot of is and cs in that. >> i might have stretched it out unnecessarily. >> no, it is that long, it's just that you can't believe it is that many. ben bernanke is in tokyo and expected to meet with the japanese economics minister. >> and the central bank continued to buy mortgage backed securities. that has spurred no shortage of controversy, so i asked senator john mccain if he would support
bernanke for another term. >> i'd have to think about it at the time. listen to the argument. but i'm very unhappy with his performance. >> in what sense? >> what's happened to the economy. what's happened to the economy when he's announced all these different measures, all the easy money. who makes -- who gets the benefit of the easy money some does small businessman in arizona? no. big businesses on wall street, yes. >> a lot of people look at what the fed has done and the reason why the u.s. is a more attractive place to invest right now because it performance has been relatively better and they credit the fed with that. are they wrong? >> well, if most of my constituents that i represent are not really happy with how the united states is now, and they're not investing and they're not hiring small business people aren't hiring and investing because they don't know when the next regulation is coming down. they don't know how they can com by with obama care and all those
regulations. they don't know how they can comply withed to frank. they don't know how they are really going to make their business grow, so they're holding back their money. i don't know about foreign countries. they're holding back their money because they have an uncertain environment because of policies by this administration. >> and the federal reserve? >> and of course the federal reserve. how many times are we going to ease? does that small businessman in arizona have free money? no, he doesn't. he or she doesn't. so i think that's wrong. it's fine for jamie dimon to have free money, but why shouldn't other sectors? >> so senator mccain criticizes the fed, blames to some extent for the economy's poor performance. what's your view? >> the fed hasn't had that many policy choices. obviously they can't lower interest rates any further.
the real sense is to say what else would you have done. you could have just not done the quantitative easing. none of us knows what would have happened to the u.s. economy, but i think there's a pair suspicion that it would have been weaker if they had not done the qe. >> that's the argument that there should have been weaker, it should have been a sense of getting the sort of -- getting -- letting the system correct itself, letting the adjustments happen. that is the alternative view. not that it wouldn't have been weaker, but that that is exactly what would have been desirable to then turn things around. >> i think it's interesting to compare the u.s. housing market with the japan housing market as one measure of just how weak or not weak and how things have adjusted. and if you look at it, japan took 50 years to adjust. and that to my mind is going too slowly.
if the fed had done nothing, you would have had foreclosures on a scale that you would never believe. so i think they got a good compromise between trying to do all that in a year which would have been a disastrous versus being so nice to the economy that it took 15 years. >> what does it mean -- between the ecb and the fed action,s a big move up in equities. we seem to have side ways for the last few weeks. earnings season will be weaker. what do we do now with global equities? >> i think of course you're quite right, we're in a bit of a consolidation phase after the kind of adrenalin rush. i think it's great for investors who take a reasonably constructive view to say a bit of consolidation price is a bit lower, that's a nice strategic entry point. and i think if you you to look at the balance of u.s. data, where clearly we've had an improvement, the jobs data, i
know people are always trying to pick holes in this, but it's absolutely clear that there is an improvement going. and europe is beginning to see a little bit better, as well. >> i find entry points interesting because it assumes you have cash on the side. if you don't have cash on the side and you're fairly fully invested, would you lighten up now -- what would you lighten up on to put money in for kitties when they get weak sner. >> it's interesting to discover who these investors are who don't have cash. i think everybody i speak to has got very large amounts of cash. people are very, very liquid. >> in good circles there, giles. >> where are they keeping the cash? >> just keeping it literally in the bank or very short dated bonds. and generally they are highly risk averse. they're beginning to put their foot in the water, but it's a slow process. >> i think we should have a private stimulus program whereby all the investors with cash write checks to people who don't have cash and maybe they that
can get the any going. one asset class that has benefited is gold. you can take a quick look at where we're trading. 12% over the past month or so adding another third of a percent yesterday. i caught up with oak tree capital management at the london summit. here's what he had to say about investing in precious metal. >> my view on gold is you can't say. you can't put an intrinsic value on an asset that doesn't produce cash flow. it's not an intelligent investment. it would be based on i think superstition. if you take away the l, you have god. and a believer can't convince a nonbeliever. and a nonbeliever can't convince a believer. >> take away the l. that's brilliant.
>> if you take away the g, then you're in trouble. >> gold benefits when interest rates are very low. that's clear. and at the moment, we have negative interest rates. it's a powerful especially send difference to hold gold and i think gold will stay attractive for another year. there will come the point when it's very highly valued as a problem. >> if you take away the g, you're left with old and the people that love gold is it is the only currency that's ever survived, right? it's old and it will still be around. >> we advise a small percentage of gold. >> directly, funds? >> it depends on the individual and what the scale is. >> a few under the bed makes you
feel better, right? and they're tax free. you're staying. good. a little more. also still to come, find out what the former ceo of bear stearns told me about m&a activity. bob... oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. e 50% on banners.
skre biden and paul ryan came out swinging last night. they were much more confrontational than displayed by president obama and mitt romney last week. they traded blows frequently interrupted each other and made pointed accusations on a wide range of issues including libya, taxes and medicare. republican pundits claim biden was being disrespectful by interrupting and laughing. >> try to scare people from voting for you. and all i have to point to are the results. we're going in the wrong direction. we do that for all constituents -- >> i love that.
>> you see, i understand the -- >> do you have the specifics? >> let me say this way. you reach across the aisle -- >> well, the two men at the top of of the tickets will meet for their second debate, a town hall format at on hofstra university on tuesday. we asked people on cnbc.com what their reaction was and who they thought was the clear winner. you can check out the results. there's been 130 vote130,000 vo. joe biden is currently in the lead. join the conversation. >> great set of nashes, joe biden. we'll bring that picture back and have another look. meanwhile, jpmorgan reports
results. forecast to earn $1.22 a share. the badge expected to benefit from high revenues for mort fwanl lending and fixed income capital markets. investors will also listen to further comments about how jpmorgan is dealing with its trading loss. >> dimon said jpmorgan had done the government a favor by buying the bank claiming they lost as much as $10 billion related to the purchase so far. we earlier heard john mccain saying he doesn't owe dime on that anything. i also caught up with alan schwartz. i asked him his view on the current investment climate. >> you have to be cautious.uncertainty is so significant, we have to be cautious, but you don't want to get unduly pessimistic because a lot of the problems are at least out there on the surface where
people can see them instead of lurking in the background. >> what is the biggest hurdle? >> i think the biggest activity or hurdle to deal flow is probably, well, i'm not sure. it depends on the industry. deals are like talking about the global this or that. whether deals happen or not is very specific to each industry. but i do think that the whole global uncertainty about the economy is affecting corporations and their willingness to spend. and i think that the fiscal uncertainty of the united states is certainly having an impact on capital spending and probably deal activity. >> are you disappointing there has been more activity given what otherwise would look like healthy corporate cash balances? >> i think you'll see with the strength of the bond market and the high yield sector, i think you'll see more acquisitions of
businesses not necessarily distress. i just think there are healthy companies that when you can put the kind of leverage that you can at very low rates, you'll probably see more activity there. but that's not leading to a major bernlger way. >> and what period would you liken 2012 to, would you go back to the middle of the last deck and i had, is it still muted? what couldn't of environment are we in? >> there is uncertainty, but people recognize that you can't stand still. >> what regrets do you have about the period of time at bear stearns, after bear stearns, or
did it create opportunity for you? >> let's not talk about that. >> not no comment at all? okay. you heard it there. >> too painful. he hasn't done the regressive therapy on that yet. he wasn't ready for it. >> clearly doesn't want to really talk about that period of time. james pli dimon happy to, but alan schwartz not so much. >> there are healthy companies willing to do m&a. but i think it emphasizes his point. yes, companies, investors have to be cautious, but they have cash and they're a good value out there.
>> and he was talking about high yield. and there's a feeling that we're not anywhere near the end of that yet. >> absolutely clear. high yield debt still looks attractive to a lot of investors. it's a good opportunity. >> thank you so much for joining us. have a good weekend. plenty still to come. >> we want to know if there are any halloween surprises on earnings. our next guest says this quarter's risks risk being all blood and gore. >> and plenty more on the vice presidential debate.
#. these are the headlines from around the world. joe biden and paul ryan turn up the heat trading bles on everything from foreign policy to jobs and taxes. >> it shouldn't be surprising for a guy who says 47% of the american people are unwilling to take responsibility for their own lives. >> romney's a good man. he cares about 100% of americans in this country. >> oecd chief tells cnbc spanish prime minister isn't asking for aid because there's a real fear eu leaders would dither or say
no. >> oil prices easing amid slowing demand and output increases. and jp more began a pchlpmoo set to report third quarter results. >> rather strange decision for the though bell peace prize. the eu, yes, the european union, has won. i have no idea who would pick that up. maybe it's for work they've done in tunisia.
meanwhile let's go through the asian session. >> mixed day of trade for asian bourses. investors cautiously positioned themselves ahead of more data from china. shanghai composite finished marginally in the green. publishers surged cheered by the winner of the nobel prize. the nikkei slipped to a fresh two month low. retailing item spelled 10%. softbank plunged 17% on concerns the nearly $13 billion deal to buy sprint nextel would be too costly. but gains in exporters complained thes wills. samsung and hyundai continued to weigh on the market, but strong
rally in health cares and consumers lent support to the kospi ending on the flat line. elsewhere miners helped the australian market end in the green, but only marginally. tpg dropped its takeover bid. sensex now lower by about three quarters of a percent. a quick look at u.s. futures. after a day where we saw pretty flat to mixed activity, this morning not too much movement. dow jones pointed up by about 35 points. nasdaq and s&p looking to add a couple points, as well. global 300 just barely higher. markets are pretty flat going into the end of the week. we'll take a look at the european bourses. we're sitting identical levels down 0.18%.
and ibex is see something activity, up nearly half a%. but of course this follows a string of losses. >> you can see we're trading now break 5.7%. italian yields also below 5%. 4.99. so lower yields across the board. don't often see that. currency markets, euro-dollar, around 1.297. aussie dollar pretty steady. but, again, a little bit firmer. so there is in terms of bond yields and also on the currency market, a little bit of risk on sentiment just creeping in. not a huge amount.
present has come off. we've slipped down a dollar to 1.14. spot gold up at 1768. taking a look at the nobel peace prize which has just been awarded to the european union, we're looking of course for detail. you can see the announcement being made in other languages, which makes it difficult for to us listen in. nevertheless, it looks as though from statements the prize is being awarded for over six decades contributing to the advancement of peace, reconciliation, democracy and human rights in europe. >> i think the man speaking is pro eu.
it did come into formation after the second world war, but a lot of people think the euro is now causing a lot of political tensions which -- >> the other nobel prizes have to be awarded to someone who is still alive, yes? so maybe they had to a award this to the european union before it -- >> on the basis it's still alive. shouldn't be joking about this. >> good morning to you. what do you make of this? >> well, you've heard my comments on the euro before. the euro was created and the eu was created as a peace keeping mechanism and it actually isn't surprising to me that it would be recognized as such. unfortunately, your comments are probably a little pointian that the and you are row is under tremendous stress and the forces that were keeping them together
are starting to pull them apart. and that's such a challenge. and they overlooked a lot of really important design issues in order to get peace. peace was really important. and now those design issues have come back to haunts them. >> 1.2 million prize money. presumably the eurozone party can take that and put into the esm. >> helping recover the cost of the bailout funds. >> so you're saying it's a fund raising project. jpmorgan reports results at 7:00. expected to earn $1.22 a share. it's expected to benefit from higher revenues from mortgage lending and fixed income capital
markets. investors will listen for further comments about how they're dealing with the trading loss. and wells fargo will also report third quarter figures. it's expected to earn 87 cents a share. they've been hit by lower interest rates, but offsetting that by make and buying more loans. both are seeing shares lower in frankfurt trade at least. as mentioned, jena sanchez is with us. we're starting to head into bank earning season. have we moved to a point where banks are trading closer to the value that they're actually bringing? >> by our calculations, financials are probably still undervalued.
its owe been lar it's been largely a defensive rally. so things like utility, health care, staples, those are the things that are overvalued right now. so banks could actually have a night little rally. >> it depends a huge amount on what happens with the eurozone. >> the u turn -- well, we're reading the potential for a u turn on the banking union and that would be probably fairly negative because that risk sharing is somewhat important. so we'll see how that paps out. the process of -- there's so much uncertainties still for banks. we don't know what all of the renlgs lagss will look like.
and that has a major impact. >>. >> so it's still out there and we didn't know what it looks like. >> and we have the pboc governor talking. >> a little news here. the vice governor saying that chinese currency has been hitting high this is week and china put together a package to support growth over the summer that package is focused on quality of life projects. results expected to be seen in the fourth quarter. full year growth around 7.8%. inflation pressure alleviated. and the u.n. exchange rate
near -- >> they were talking 7.5% the first half. so they're in the ballpark. >> under 8%. we'll keep an eye on on that. and we'll head to break. but first, we want to give you a check of the agenda on on the u.s. september producer price index out at 8:30. expected to show a gain of 0.8%. looking for a reading of 78 done a point from the last month. and the federal budget statement will be out at 2:00. jeffrey lacker speaking about the economy at the university of virginia at 12:30.
compromise an issue without compromising yourself, you shouldn't even be in congress, in fact you shouldn't get married. you shouldn't be in your business or his business. >> by the way, you shouldn't go to congress needing to learn to compromise. the definition of politics is the art of getting things done. you should be elected for being willing and able and capable of compromising in the first place. >> i caught up with john mccain and asked him if he supported the federal reserve's latest move to buy mortgages in order on to support the housing market. >> what we should have done aunt didn't do was establish an outfit called home ownership loan administration which we it during the great depression, buy up people's mortgages and give them a mort dwagage back they sd have done. instead, we bailed out wall street, the people who don't to mortgages. and it's a trf vaes city and a
disgrace. whether we say i support or do not support, we need to sit down together, all of us, led by the president, and say, look, here's our deficit, here's our goal, here's the period of time that we have in order to fix it. and here are the measures that have to be on the table, the ones we can agree on, those we disagree on, but we have to come out with a way to so that the bleeding. that means putting everything on the table. now, i oppose -- the fact is that there can be an agreement in my view that we would all have to make some sacrifices. but for me to say i would support this, i wouldn't support that, that's not the way you negotiate. >> but you're saying you won't put the mortgage tax deduction on the table. >> i wouldn't agree to it. but the fact is that there can
be an agreement. >> didn't the debt ceiling negotiation show that there simply cannot be a coming to terms between republicans and democrats? each party has their own sacred house that they refuse to budge. >> the president has agreed and boehner had agreed to a certain amount of revenue increases. boehner went to to the white house and the president napded that there be another $500 billion worth of tax increases. the whole they think fell apart. and that's not my version of the events. that he's the way it was written up in the "washington post." so they had an grept and the president backed out of it. >> so you're confidence there could be another agreement post the election once we face the fiscal cliff to avoid the act that would hurt growth or to avoid the repeat of a debt ceiling confrontation? >> we all know we're facing a
fiscal cliff, whether it be sequestration, the can debt limit, all the taxes hiked or not, we are facing a fiscal cliff.an debt limit, all the taxes hiked or not, we are facing a fiscal cliff.n debt limit, all the taxes hiked or not, we are facing a fiscal cliff. debt all the taxes hiked or not, we are facing a fiscal cliff.debt all the taxes hiked or not, we are facing a fiscal cliff. everybody knows we have to fix it, but nobody knows how. i believe as we get closer to the first of january, the markets will start to react because people will be so severely impacted by that's why they call it a cliff and they'll be severely impacted and i have every hope that we can sit done and reach an agreement. >> does that mean letting the bush tax cuts expire and letting payroll tax cuts sunset? >> it means we put everything on the table. >> he's basically saying i expect markets to force us to come to an agreement. >> we think there will be a very
dark moment before things actually are forced to come to fruition. we did an analysis of the fiscal cliff, we think it's about $703 billion maximum hit. that's about 4.5% of gdp. based on on various issues that we know are up on the fiscal cliff and what we know obama supports and what we think romney will support because that's a little more unclear, we think that under obama, you get about a 1% hit to gdp. of course that will get offset by other measures, so we're guessing about a 50 basis point hit to gdp. >> what do you do as an investor? what are the asset prices going to do then? >> if you think about what's happening, at some point you look forward and you say how much growth can we expect. if you look at the rally that we've seen, that rally has seen a multiple expansion. that has been that the markets
believe that the tail risk has been reduced in europe. that's what's driving it, not qe three. at some point you actually need growth to get further expansion. we've definitely seen positive numbers, but by our analysis, we're industrial growing at between 1.6 and 1.8 next year and that's assuming a qe-3 impact. >> what are asset prices going to have to to do? they'll have on on have a big sell off or something's going to have to happen. when, after the election? when and how much, to what september? >> there's a couple he have cal take lists. one is earnings. earnings are reflecting sort of -- earnings are showing you what is happening in terms of
companies ability to actually turn this into real sales. earnings in our opinion will be negative. the estimate is about a 2.7% fall this quarter. it will be below expectations. so that can it is appointment is certainly one kass it take list. once you get past the election, i think people are underestimating just how ugly the speting across the aisle might be. that's another way that markets will be destabilize the yet again. because then you look at another shut down. >> thanks for joining us. joe biden and paul ryan came out swinging last night. they were much more confrontational. they traded blow, frequently interrupted each other on a wide range of issues. joe biden, though, has drawn criticism from republican pundits who complain he was
being disrespectful by interrupting and laughing as you're about to see. >> all i have to point to are the results. we're going not wrong direction. >> i love that. >> do you have the specifics? >> let me say this way. you reach across the aisle -- >> amazing set of teeth. >> joe biden? do you think that's why he just wanted to show them off? >> we call them nashes over here. mighty good dental work. >> wouldn't necessarily see that on this side of the pond. in any case, what was your reaction to last night's debate? was there a clear winner? we've had more than 130,000 votes. as you can see there, joe biden is in the lead now with more than half the votes. paul ryan had taken the early
lead, though, last night. howard stern has written into say i wish they would have invited stephen colbert on the debate. he makes more sense than any of the candidates. we can't confirm that's actually howard stern. it may just be a similarly named howard stern. you can e-mail or tweet us your thoughts. >> we'll take short break. sti still to come, we'd be joined by the wto and more of a wrap up on the prvice presidential debate,s well.
welcome back. i'm kelly evans. >> these are your headlines from around the world. >> joe biden and paul ryan turn up the heat trading blows on everything from foreign policy to jobs apartmennd taxes. >> a guy who says 47% of the american people are unwilling to take responsibility. >> romney is a good man. he cares about 150% of americans in this country. >> the eu awarded the nobel peace prize.
and skrchltjpmorgan and welo will report third quarter results. jpmorgan will report third quarter reports at 7:00 a.m. company expected to earn $1.22 a share. kayla tausche has more in this report. >> jpmorgan reports third quarter earnings before the bell. wall street consensus looking for $1.22 per share on on $22.5 billion in revenue. analysts expect two boosts to the bottom lean of the bank, the large efrs in the u.s. would i by assets. a pick up in u.s. ipos and high yield debt issuance could breathe life into the bank's fees.
they had the highest bank revenue for the first nine months of the year. another phenomenon was the launch of the qe-3 program no fort ganlg ba mortgage backed securities. banks like skrchjpmorgan and we fargo will be able to make a bigger spread as mortgage rates fall. but it's hardly just the numbers that will interest the streets. expect more questioning around the london whale trade especially the current size of the lots and status of investigations. and then there's the la suit from the attorney general alleging jpmorgan is liable for tens of millions of dollars related to bear stearns. and doug braunstein will address his own resignation forthcoming. a successor has yet to be named.
that's what's on on tap for jpmorgan. we' send it back to you in london. >> let's get more from larry mcdonald. all the focus will be on jpmorgan. what do you think the market's expectation is here? >> the financials are dramatically outperforming. so a lot's been baked in the cake and you're right, the net interest margin side as well as the outlook for the fiscal cliff, those are the big negatives. and it's very telling that in the last 48 hour, you had jamie dimon and mr. blankfein very public about the impact of the fiscal cliff and i think that's what really holds all the cards. >> so think they're on a pr mission here to educate people or draw attention to this issue
because they're worried about the impact it will have on their business. >> absolutely. they're brilliant men and it for jamie dimon to mention a war room and for mr. blankfein to host that event and articulating -- the convexity is phenomenal. if they were to work out a deal and somehow give everybody some visibility for 2013, the up side for the financials is really dramatic. but on the other side of the coin, the payroll tax cut alone, it that goes away that's 1% of disposable income. in my lifetime, you have very rare points in time where 9 consumer can be impacted by gist one point of the fiscal cliff. consumer can be impacted by gist one point of the fiscal cliff. >> so the trouble with obviously it would be great broadly speaking or for markets to let
all of these measures -- to kick the can down road, but the flip side of the coin being the risks that that potentially raises or the concern that would raise in circles about the debt levels that we have here in the u.s. >> i've been blogging about this. my next book is all about the bond bubble. and the startling fact is entitlements in the 80s were about 38% of budget and now they're 63%. and in the 80s, the interest expense was about 18% of the budget. now it's 9%. if interest rate just go back to 5.5%, interest will be about 22% of the budget. 45 is just a horrifying fact that will crowd out tons of needs of social spending. so they are really focused on this and it's a really wild card for 2013 and its impact on the bond market. >> we have the eu talking about
pushing back basel iii. with a impact does that have? >> one thing that brought down lee may brothers is regulatory arm stranlg. the u.s. teams to be moving along a lot faster than europe and i just think politicians around the world going forward have to get together because you can't have europe delaying basel iii and the u.s. moving ahead with dodd-frank in such an aggressive way. it doesn't make sense. >> larry, thanks for joining us this morning. asia tell likely to power growth next year. world's second biggest economy not likely to face a hard landing. china has room to push fiscal stimulus to prop its economy. we'll get more clues starting tomorrow when it toasts
september trade figures and monday, beijing will also release inflation data on thursday, china third quarter gdp. so what about trade with china and the rest of the world? many wondering whether recent friction can between china and countries like the u.s. and japan will have a real economic impact. no better man to talk about it than the director general of the world trade organization. he joins us. nice to see you again. we're in the middle of a u.s. election cam been and there's a competition going on amongst candidates who can talk toughest on china. is this just pre-electionary political rhetoric that we can ignore or are you concerned about the tone of the conversation and where it may lead in terms of disrupting trade? >> the reality is that so far we've had more bark than bite. but we have to remain very
vigilant that a lot of barking doesn't translate even in a bit of biting. now, we have a system in the world trade organization, which precisely has been bid and operated to avoid political frictions to turn into trade wars. or trade disputes to turn into political wars. so normally we should be able to handle. >> are you expecting more disputes in the wto? >> we've had this year rather significant increase of trade disputes that have been brought
for proper adjudication not only between u.s. and china, but also between other countries. so it's not u.s. china privilege at all anymore. >> let's talk about other country. how damaging is the china japan? it's interesting china does not send their most senior man to the imf meetings because it's in tokyo and there's a despite over the islands, as well. how disruptive could this did its put get? >> both china and japan are extremely important to each
other. they are both integrated in the global supply chain. so at the end of day, rationality will prevail and that as we have a system that addresses disputes not to become a political problem, we also have a system not to deteriorate into trade tensions. lens hurt the economies and at the end of the day jobs which is certainly not what the world economy needs today. >> sdwrous switch gears here, the european union has just been awarded the nobel peace prize. what's your reaction to that? >> well, as european by nationality, i think it's a good signal. and that i would interpret the
signal to european construction has been working for peace which is historically true. and at the time where we know that there is a bit of turbulence in building this european union, it's a signal of encourageme encouragement. >> do you expect the wto to get it during your career there? >> maybe that's a good idea it for years to come, please make the pitch to the nobel prize jury. i will not object. >> that is the principal of greater trade, right? you don't go to war with people that you're doing a lot of trade with. thanks very much for joining us. always good to see you. >> we'll have plenty more on the
role in uniting the continent. >> joe biden and paul ryan turn up the heat. our poll says biden has come out on top. >> and jp more began an w pchlp gets set to report results. spain's finance minister insists there is no political resistance to a potential bailout and that they're trying to decide whether on ask for one or not. >> and mean chil in the last few moments, the nobel peace prize has been awarded to, yes, the european union. it awarded the prize to the eu long term role in uniting the continent and spreading stability to form a com uhe nent countries following the fall of the berlin will. the prize which is normally
worth around $1.2 million will be presented in oslo on december the 10th. they decide on the prize money annually. so whether they present it or not -- >> in spite of its current crisis, he says it's a great honor for the entire eu. >> i noticed the euro, the prize was not awarded to the euro, very separate. because that caused a little political problem. angela merkel was painted with -- >> and it's not unprecedented. apparently the red cross has received it multiple times. but the eu nevertheless -- we thought it was some sort of rumor.
joe biden and paul ryan came out swinging at their vice presidential debate. both were more confrontational than last week. they traded blows frequently interrupting each other and making pointed accusations on on a wide range of issues including libya, taxes and medicare. here's one of the more heated exchanges. >> you can cut tax rates by 20%
and still preserve the important preferences -- >> not mathematically possible. >> it is. it's been done before. >> it has never been done before. >> it's been done a couple times actually. ronald reagan -- >> now you're jack kennedy. >> so was there a clear winner? 130,000 votes, and joe biden is leading with more than half. joining us for more, julian epstein and boris former aide to mccain/palin campaign in 2008. so boris, did paul ryan succeed here? has this been a game changing movement, has it picked up on the momentum that romney started with last week? >> it didn't need to be a game changing movement.
what paul ryan needed to do was make his point to america that he is ready to be vice president and president if need be. and he absolutely did that. he was strong, he was resolute, and he stood up to very childish attacks from joe biden. some of the attacks were disappoint willing, the laughter, the smirking. it was very unvice presidential and unprofessional and at the end if you noticed when it was time to give their closing remarks, joe biden did not thank paul ryan, but paul ryan thanked joe biden. so on the overall picture, paul ryan did it great. does it help the momentum, it does. does it help democrats, it does not. democrats are still struggling take. >> julian, would you at least concede that biden was perhaps unprofessional with the laughter and some of the way he carried himself? >> i think joe biden did yesterday what he needed to do, which he needed to stop the momentum that romney had in the one bad week that the obama
campaign has had since the debate last week. and i think biden did that. and he did it for two reasons p one is during an economically stressful people, people want a strong and assertive leader. that's why romney did better in the first debate, that's why biden did better in the second debate. but secondly, i think that the republicans left a lot of change on the table last night. on on the tax plan that really is some total of the economic plan and jobs plan, the numbers i think has everybody concedes simply don't add up. on medicare, the proposal to voucherize medicare is extremely unpopular with seniors by double digits. and that's why you've seen seniors move in huge numbers in florida, ohio and elsewhere towards the democratic side. on afghanistan, ryan suggests or at least opened the door to having troops on the ground which is something very unpopular with american people.
and on abortion, the ryan/romney ticket has to explain what has been what i think can only be characterized as part of the archie bunker hour. republicans have had very extremist points of view. so i think you can argue back and forth on style and the interruptionses, i think biden was assertive and strong, but certainly on the issues is which is what will matter, i don't see how the republicans advanced their case. and you have to keep in mind that the electoral college still favors obama at this point particularly in places like ohio where the numbers just haven't moved that much. so this is still the democrats race to lose. >> a lot of chat last night about foreign affairs. the republicans have tried to paint the obama administration in lacking. but i didn't hear really biden in any of the summaries come out with any new policies or anything concrete that would be different from the current administration. >> what you did not hear was joe biden really talk about barack
obama at all. joe biden on his game? he was. we thought it was overbearing. some might not. but joe biden did not make the case for why barack obama deserves to be president for four more years. maybe he made the case why he should be the democrat nominee in 2016, but he did not speak on behalf of the person on on top of that ticket. to some of the specific issues julian mentioned, if you don't think the polls have moved that much, then you aren't looking that closely. ohio is now within very much the margin of error. florida is going toward romney. and you're looking at states like michigan, pennsylvania, new hampshire, very much in play. this race is extremely tight. and that debate last night did not help democrats at all because guess what, joe biden did not explain why the ticket deserves to have four more years. he did attack the romney/ryan ticket, but wasn't really able to take any credit for any achievements because there haven't been any. on the libyan situation, he was
really embarrassing because he contradicted not just the department of state, but he really threw the intelligence community under the bus using them as a defense for what has been a coverup of a terrorist attack on 9/11. >> julian, do you want to get in here? >> yeah, let me respond. first of all, i think that the polls have moved a little bit in places like florida, not substantially enough in ohio, pennsylvania, michigan. secondly, i think -- >> in ohio, it's one point difference. >> excuse me, bor. why obama ought to get four years. when obama came into office, we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. we're now gaining somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000. gdp was at negative 9, we're close to positive 2. that's an 11 point positive swing. about a million positive swing in jobs per month since he took office. on foreign affair, bin laden is gone, troops are coming out of iraq, troops are coming out of afghanistan. gadhafi has fallen. al qaeda has been decapitated.
>> gadhafi has fallen, but we just had an ambassador murdered in libya. >> can i finish the point? you didn't like interruptions in a debate. >> you interrupted me. >> the interesting point on foreign policy, republicans have nothing to offer in terms of what they would have done that's different. i think the libyan point, romney showed himself to be somewhat unpresidential by attacking the president in the in the middle of a foreign policy crisis. so i think the case is there overwhelming for an obama re-election, and as i say, this is still the fundamentals of this race still favor theoverwh. >> and we have to leave it there. julian, boris, thank you both very much for your time this morning. >> plenty more to come on on "squawk box." we hope you have a very good weekend.
this is a special presentation of "squawk box." one of the world's most successful long term value investors is holding court with the ceos of some of his most profitable investments. under armour, wing resorts. and you have an all-access pass. plus your money, your vote. >> it's mathematically possible. it's been done before. >> it has never been done before. >> the vice presidential debate. the final stretch on the campaign trail. and what the november election means for the global