tv Fast Money CNBC October 30, 2012 4:00am-5:00am EDT
opening. let's have a look at the sectors in general. financials were very much in focus as well because of sandy, this is perhaps starting to tepper off at. let's start right here. technology, financials, construction the weakest. health care also at the moment. financials absolutely flat. a little bit of a negative side here. and then also household goods, i would call that flat, as well. let's have a look at other stocks here. food and drink, technology flat. let's start to see what's really moving. oil and gas an interesting one. we did have the oil price actually a little bit under pressure, below 109 when it comes to brent simply because of sandy. car stocks doing well. banks starting to turn around. interesting stock coming through from deutsche bank and also travel and leisure up 0.2% as we
speak. >> let me take a look at the spanish numbers crossing. finally okay news to report or better than expected news anyway which is not that regular out of spain these days. the gdp print first upcoming in at minus 0.3% quarter on quarter. the forecast was for a worse number than that. in terms of what this means on the year by year comparison basis, we have the third quarter now running at minus 1.6% annually, the forecast on that expected to be worse at minus 1.7%. and here's where the news does get dicey. this is on the cpi numbers. the october flash eu harmonized cpi creeping up to 3.5% year on year. the forecast was just to a tad less at 3.4%. so the numbers out there for the market to digest on the cpi print and also the gdp number
just quickly on the ibex, the instant reaction is that it's up half of a%. you can see on the euro there, a little bit of a creep high there, too. of course this is a market that's very much watching the data and also the yields to see just whether spain will be forced into anytime soon. but patricia has more earnings to run through. >> absolutely there is a storm out there. from the ftse at the moment, up 0.3% as we speak. we did have some news out there from british petroleum, better than expected. also raising dividends. nice to hear in this earnings season. seems that on a revenue side, it's a bit of a balanced picture, however it seems when it comes to the actual profits generated by the company so far, it would be more healthy.
bp up 3.3%, so the market definitely did like what they had to say this morning. let's get out to angus campbell. longman not reacting right now. >> no, there are a couple of stocks that have reacted relatively mutedly to the open. but that hasn't affected the broader market, which of course we were calling to open lower throughout the evening and up until sort of an hour and a half ago, futures starting to tick higher. and actually the open has been even better than that we're up some sort of 15 points or so in the ftse. a couple of some important stocks. we've been focusing on bp, well up over 3%, better than some opening kals for that stock, as well. an it's really very much a refining story of course for a lot of these oil producers.
we have seen refining margins improving globally on the whole, but i think that these figures really took a few people by surprise, weren't expecting them to be anywhere near as good. of course the refining margin maker increasing dramatically over the quarter and that has been the main driver behind it earnings today. so of course very good news, as well, that they've increased the dividend by some 12.5%. so very good news story. and then if you buy into the whole selling of the tnk to rosneff deal, if expectations for that to go through, then really on the back of these earnings, that might give bp share price quite a boost going into the final quarter of the year and into 2013 in particular if that rosneff deal go tos through. >> okay. increasing dividends is what investors love for sure.
thanks very much for your time. i can see bp at the top about the fourth highest trading stock. so let's pick up on that, michael brown fund manager with me around the wall. and bp's numbers today, just more confirmation it's on the path of somewhere that investors actually want to go? >> the question is what do they do with the cash. if the rosneff deal comes off, what are you going to do with that money? do you return to shareholders? i think the new fields and possibilities are fairly well documented. we should be seeing a super differen dividend coming back, but will we. there's a lot of questions around there. and oyou've restructured the business, you've brought it back to its core business, it's a well run business as the numbers
show. what do you do next, don't know. >> the cash call from investors is extremely strong. many people want the pay out wherever they can get it. but this is a business that has to reposition for the future after what played out in the u.s. is it time for bp to do something controversial sand wade back into the u.s., a country chasing a very strong independent policy? >> then ear asking is it an inquire remember or inquiree. and that's a critical question for this juncture. it could be preying. and that's because of the way it's reshaped itself back to the core business. well done management, you've done everything you can do in
the resur against phase. does it need new business to move the business forward. >> big energy names reporting. is this an area that you even . want to be in right now. >> go back to my inflation bug bear. what's interesting actually is that oil and crude oil prices are not the primary driver of inflation, so we actually complaint blame crude oil at that point, although everybody wants to blame it maybe the debate happens with a gallon of gas in the united states over the u.s. presidential election period. p so for me, yes, it's an oil company, yes, it's therefore dependent on the relationships in terms of the underlying price. yes, a lot of substitution of demand at the present moment in time and the response to the oil
crisis then was to do massive change in terms of how we generate electricity. france the most notable example. so those are the responses that you get to those oil prices. b but the flip side is do we start to see other areas be more interesting and that may be from a commodity point of view, could it be specific mining products or liquid gas and we come back to the whole shale gas argument which produceses a competitive product which long term will reduce the price of oil. >> so what you're hard lining is a specific strategy in the commodity space. for so long diversified names have been scooping up investor interests. but we've seen that with cutting back in production.
are you saying that argument is gone and the super cycle theory has been questioned? >> of course it was always going to get questioned. you have these super cycles every 20, 30 years in commodities that may actually be longer than that. everybody makes an awful lot of money. they behave like children and try to buy everything they possibly can. now, that's exactly where we've just finished. a little dose of reality starts to set in, maybe the producers have overproduced, they've certainly overinvested, rates of return are not what they thought they were, therefore the cash is not coming through 379 big risk here is not necessarily to the guy that owns the mine in production, but actually to the people who have been producing the shovels and machinery to do that. and we to see very signature down side risk for those companies involved in the cap ex-side of mining for next year. more so than the miners themselves. >> just looking at the wall, ubs second up traded stock there, as
well. >> there is a lot going on, but let's focus quickly on the spanish market p. third quarter gdp coming through. down 1.6% on a yearly basis. that is better than expected, however, this is the fifth consecutive quarter that we see economic contraction in spain. we also saw reaction there the euro straight on the back of the announcement earlier on. let me quickly start off with the deutsche bank numbers. let's look at the way it is trading. actually there you go, up 3.3%. not too bad there. announcing basically that they'll finish the job cutting exercise by the end of the year. they are he's talking about the
basel iii tier one reaching about 7.3 revenues, but one thing for sure restructuring definitely still on the cards there. but for the rest of 2012, which i thought was interesting, is that they said they're seeing a little bit better environment. metro retail, absolutely flat. on the other hand, even though they did disappoint, the net profit side as well as the still keeping the outlook for 2012. and the fourth quarter numbers are the important ones because that's christmas season. m.a.n. truck maker, you could argue about the numbers. michael brown liked the numbers, even though not looking too healthy, but the market liked them, as well.
michael, very well done. good for you. and of course for the shareholders of m.a.n., up 1.2%. but generally speak, you have to see that still volumes as yesterday and actually since the beginning of the year definitely very low still. and remember, the u.s. market in general. let's look at the smi. up 0.4%. here the big news coming through from ubs. restructuring is on the card for a while, but to really kill off an entire segment which is the fixed income at ubs, was a business of a surprise. let's get out to carolyn. she knows where the reaction comes from. good morning. >> patricia, as you rightly pointed out, this is an absolutely unprecedented move. just shutting gown an entire business line, the fixed income
business, because it doesn't make economic sense anymore. that is a very radical move, but it is being cheered by investors as you can see. today's shares up 6.5%. because we did get those reports over the weekend, shares were also up by similar amount. if we look at the underlying business performance, that was quite rosi rosy, as well. the underlying group pretax was 15% above consensus, driven by all divisions, but the biggest beat was in the investment banking division. that was 48% better than forecast. investment banking revenues were up slightly by 3% and equities doing particularly well. net new money was also quite strong, stronger than forecast at 7.7 billion swiss francs. the only let down, maybe that's the gross margin because that was pretty much flat and it still shows that the declining
being client activity is still somewhat low. want to come back to the job cuts, though, because when i sat down with certainly i don't monty, the ceo of ubs, i asked him why he didn't announce the job cuts when the company held its investors day a year ago. i asked him whether the outlook for the industry as a whole had worsened so dramatically. take a listen. >> we got more visibility about the new regulatory framework that goes on on which is likely not to disappear actually. likely to be even more relevant for our industry. the third element is clearly that the macroeconomic scenario has deor raterioratedeteriorate. and versus where we stand a year ago, we have basis points required and therefore, we are in a position of strength that
allows us to be stronger and be positioned well for the future in order to capture all the opportunities that will present. >> you say you want to save an additional 3.4 billion swiss francs over the next three years. i assume the investment bank will be the hardest hit, but just exactly how many jobs will have to go? >> this is the most painful part of what we're doing. i think clearly in order to become stronger and better in the future, we need to go through this exercise. we will have around 10,000 people will leave the bank or not be replaced through natural attrition consideration over the next three years. >> so are these job cuts a kitchen sinking exercise, was that it in terms of cost cutting over the next cycle? >> no, what we want to do is a little bit more than just a pure cost cutting exercise. what we want to be, we want to be more effective and efficient
in everything we do. at time to market, being more close to our clients. and at the same times, the effectiveness of creating an environment that allow us to reduce operational risk. >> no doubt about it, initially the pain will be severe. so what kind of restructuring costs are we looking at? >> we do expect restructuring costs between now and 2015 to amount to a total of 3.3 bill n billion. so from 2015 onward, we will be able to unlock the potential that we generate by doing the changes to our cost base. >> b obviously there's the risk that when fixed income does pick up over the next couple quarter, you'll be called out because you've exited those businesses and other firms will be profiting. is that a concern to you? >> it's a potential danger, but
if you think about the capital we will free up and the port fo portfolio is highly capital generated, we will offset the opportunity cost really by freeing up capital. >> that was ubs ceo speaking to me earlier. in terms of the outlook for the fourth quarter actions that was still somewhat cautious despite the fact that the third quarter on an underlying basis was pretty good. ubs told me yesterday that they's restructuring charges of 500 million swiss francs in the fourth quarter, that's why they will likely post a loss for the fourth quarter and the outlook overall still clouded by the fiscal cliff, global economic outlook and eurozone dealt crisis. >> but the stock is up, so nothing to complain about at least for today.
let's have a look at the insurance sector. i can tell you one thing, perhaps because of sandy yet after the bell, preliminary numbers raising the outlook it for the entire year 2012. the cac 40 up 0.7%, also there the insurance a big focus. let's get over to the axa stock and let's get stefane to comment on it. good morning. >> good morning, patricia. of course it's going to be expensive for the insurance sector, but not as much probably as it was section years ago. can be between 10 and $20 billion in damages and between 5 and $10 billion in losses for the insurance company. that would be a sizability amount for the insurance industry. axa has significant exposure to the united states. it's about 12% of its total revenue, therefore it will be probably impacted by the cost.
back in 2005, hurricane cost $1200 million mainly through its reinsurance. this time we can expect something lower than this amount according to the earlier projection that we have from analysts in that sector. keep in mind also not only axa, but another french reinsurance company which was also impacted by katrina seven years ago. apart from the insurance sector, of course we have to keep an eye on other sectors starting with air france, some flights to north america canceled, but rather limited so far. air france which is the french unit canceled only six flights day to new york, washington and boston, so of course very limited compared to the daily volume of flights at air france. so don't expect too much
negative impact here. also of course nyse as the new york stock exchange will remain closed today. this is going to have an impact also on the nyse share price could suffer, although once again rather limited compared to the revenue of the company. that's all we can say for the time being. back to you. >> definitely an interesting debate whether or whether not the storm will have a long lasting impact. from the american views, we know that we are overblowing it a little bit and that it's actually all calming down. now let's have a look at the atx. up 1.1% as we speak. the market likes what they had to say andle also we exclusively spoke to the ceo and asked him how he actually managed the turn around of erste. >> we cleaned up a lot of things
a year ago and this year is just a normal quarter. results are okay given the circumstances, we're quite happy with it. they're good, but not good enough. and in reality, it's a reflection of the economic situation of our region. is so it's a place where you can make money as a bank servicing the real economy and at the same time, you're suffering of course also from the weaknesses of the economy in europe and the eurozone. but in principal, i think the results are a demonstration of the fact that central and eastern europe is doing quite a bit better than than western europe at the moment. >> and we're still hearing about the wave of job cuts taking place in the banking system. is this something that you'll have to see more of, as well? >> we have been able to adapt to the economic circumstances throughout # last ten years.
we had at one point in time 19,000 employee, now we have 10,000. we've beened a damming to the circumstances all along. that's why we've been able to keep costs stable or reduce them. so we've not been forced into any kind of major reaction like other banks has to do. the main reason is that we don't have to change our strategy. we have put all our resources into one part of europe that we believe over the next 50 years will outgrow in every aspect western europe and we continue with that strategy and we hope we're right with that. >> let's pick up with global strategist joining us for some of this market reaction. chris, looking at the market, ubs and deutsche bank fighting out for top position on the stoxx 600, so we're seeing a
strong response on the back of these earning. >> very good morning. markets reacting positive to the latest figures. and we have at the moment quite a good chance that it's going to continue. >> the message this morning surely is you have to own banks, isn't it? deutsche bank came out with better than expected numbers. you have to own them for that reason. ubs coming in where a big restructuring. you have to own them for that reason. doesn't matter which way around. you have to own banks. >> the point interest rates still very low, we will stay for a longer term very low. and i think --
>> nice to see some market activities. >> is that deutsche coming to market? >> it's not a bank, but it can be a real succession and. [ bells in background ] >> first rates really with a champ, yes. so coming back to the banks, the banks are at the moment from my opinion heard from the european crisis, but a lot of them have done already a lot of restructurin restructuring. and that means we see turnarounds. and if you have a look for example at the deutsche bank, we have this long, long term downtu downturn. and if you have a look, you see
from 2010 down deutsche bank and now breaking out at this 33 level. this means from here on, we have quite a way to go to the up side. first of all, 40 is the target and even later on, could go for higher. you see this down turn is already two years old and it's broken right now. and you see that it's long term consolidation what has taken place. >> yeah. let's talk truck sales. michael, you like the number that came out in m.a.n. chris, what was your view? we have seen a spike in the share price. >> especially at the moment m.a.n. you sea here that we have a reaction from 100 on to 70 roundabout which was about 60% from the further up move. so from here on the possibility to go to 83, 85, and even if you took it longer term, this is a monthly chart, possibility to go
to 100. so looks that reaction has taken place already. on the metro, it's the fact that we had already the lowest from 2009 nearly reached again as you can see here, 2002, 2009. thousand we have the risk is 17 1/2, but i think it can turn around here. and then we're going to 25, direction 30. so long risk investment if you buy it right here. >> thank you very much, chris. giving us instant market reaction there on the earnings out. michael brown is our guest host, he's the fund manager at martin curry, staying to talk with us about the u.s. storm. so stick around, we'll be right back. bob...
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sandy slams into the u.s. coast. over 5 million people are without power and u.s. markets remain closed for a second day. ubs shares see a gain for a second session as it confirms restructuring plans that will see 10,000 jobs go and an end to its fixed income business. deutsche bank stock also making gains after the lender posting rise in third quarter profits. a strong performance from its investment banking unit. and strong refining margins help bp beat expectations with its third quarter profits. uk energy giant also raises its dividend.
we're expecting again very low volume day, but still taking what we can get. we had good announcement coming through from deutsche bank, from ubs, even back here being the main gainer up almost 6%. ubs earlier on up more than 6% and now up about 4%. these are the best performing sectors here. not so good performing sector on the lower side here, swma, down about 9.6%. banking numbers looking a lot less perky. media doing fairly well. insurance up 1.3%.
also car stocks, m.a.n. numbers defined as quite good coming through from the truck sector. remember the truck sector in general is a little bit of a leading indicator. so in we're seeing that pick up, that should be leading quite well. that has a lot to do with the strength of the yen. let's have a look at the stocks, the fwaners and losers. hugo boss down 1.6%, numbers coming through from metro earl year this morning, definitely below par. outlook a little bit bleak, however, fourth quarter is of course for all the retailers absolutely important.
you can see most of the numbers looking a little better than expected. >> thanks very much for that, patricia. that chart sum it is up what we're seeing here in europe is on the back of earning, but let's keep you updated on the top story. sandy has made landfall on the northeast coast with reports at least 13 people have been killed. over 5 million people are without power as winds of 80 miles an hour have knocked down trees and power lines. hundreds of miles of the coastline have been affected. a surge of sea water got over bear krers. we'll bring you on the latest on the storm throughout the show
and on programming, but you can keep up with the latest developments also on cnbc.com. >> we'll have a look at some of the u.s. stocks that are actually trading. perhaps this gives you you a peel what you can expect once the market is back open. p what we see here with these main american stocks, they're actually underperforming the european sentiment. wall hart downmart down 0.9, jo johnson down 0.8%. that means we have a bit of a cross border view of different secreta sectors all trading a little lower. hopefully the markets will be back open tomorrow and the whole trading environment will
definitely change. >> thanks very much. we'll chat further about some of the u.s. reaction. your specialty is retail and we've been looking at some of the stocks that patricia has been showing us. is there going to be much reaction for retail stocks when they finally reopen for trade after will this storm? >> particularly the likes of the food retailers, you would see significant buy into it, so probably seeing some big increases and they will be closed if a while, so you'll lose those sales. some of the more general merchandise will lose sales clearly because shopping is not exactly top to your mind when your home is flooding. having said that, the pattern is sales tend to come back. you tend to get back most of that business. so i wouldn't water too much. also this came on a monday and tuesday, which is better than coming on a weekend.
it's also slight between back to school and holiday shoplingso t. >> i was looking at shall shops earlier where there were empty shelves as people raced out to grab some of the essentials. that type of purchasing, what happens here? because obviously there is a sale spike before the event, but is there sort of a sales drop off afterwards? >> actually, you will see obviously because they will be closed for a while, so you will see that drop off because the stores will baskly be dark. having said that, they need to restock, people need to come back and restock, they do tend to see a net ben about fit. but it all generally washes out. what happens particularly with irene last year, a lot of retailers learned to cope with this a lot better. so a few years ago, they would have had trouble restocking the stores once the hurricane was over. i expect this time the likes of target, walmart, home depot have
put plenty of planning in and they probably started stocking five, section days before the event so they probably will not have as much of a restocking issue. >> let's talk about the christmas season then. to what extent does the storm matter at all? now perhaps people have to spend their money for things they need because they were destroyed perhaps in the storm or whatever. so they might have less disposable income for christmas presents. does that matter at all? >> i do think again none of this is particularly positive, but i wouldn't overstate its impact either. because i think this is coming in a lull, it's during a weekday. halloween is a bit worry because it's been a wash skrout. so if you haven't sold through that stock, you've lost the opportunity. for the rest of them, i think so far if you think about it the u.s. retailers have actually surprised us on the up side pretty much all year. september was slightly soft month, but we had a very difficult comparison from the prior year. and if you look forward to the
holiday season, the u.s. had no winter to speak of. >> and also during the gdp numbers, we saw consumer spending is looking quite healthy. >> i'm going to be old and stupid because i remember the '87 storm and walk to work that particular day and it had virtually no impact on retail sales of any kind. yes, you couldn't get deliveries in on the saturday, it was a friday and saturday and sunday. yes, there was tremendous demand in the uk from a surprise storm which this is not for things such as chain saws and four by four spares. but after about a week, all of that had just washed out and it was entirely over. what had an impact on christmas that year was the dramatic falls in the market the following monday. i hoep we won i hope we weren't see a repeat of that. >> what about gasoline prices? they've spiked on some concerns about supply and some of the refiners starting to wind back on refining because of what's
taking place out there. doesn't this raise the cost for the consumer, therefore, crimping spending power? >> i think gas is hard to read. it has a much bigger impact than it actually does in in spending pattern, so it does tend to impact. you get sticker shock when you see the number there. it hurts the psyche, but when consumers step back for a second, you tend to see the imof impact on spending again is much more muted than just based on what consumers say. you see prices spike up, i think you'll continue to see u.s. retailers doing well, those that offer some form of units to the consumer, those that have a strong internet offer, those that offer freshness per se are doing quite well. i think at the lower end much the spectrum still inflation is relatively high. i think the lower end retailers are struggling a bit. you've seen more recently the likes of the dollar stores are doing well all year.
those consumer, capacigas is a bigger part of their income. >> let me go to a completely different sector, banking in china. icbc says its q3 net profit was 62.4 bell i don't know yo billi. so numbers beating expectations. this might make you chuckle. the n.r at the end of september just 0.8%. given the numbers nunling up around that 9% mark, huge divergence on the loan portfolio. as we come up to year end and
there's increased spending, one company that's been getting a larger slice of the action has been amazon. you're not imagining all those delivery trucks are running around town either. isn't there an impact on some of the internet ordering taking place and delivery? >> there are two camps on this. because on the one hand, if your power is working and your internet is working, you can sit home and shop online if that's really on your mind. and it's funny how many u.s. retailers have been marketing to consumers quite aggressively through the storm. i think there is a trend towards the internet and a lot of brick and mortar real tail -- amazon
winner from all this. they want to have the ability to be able to look at sizes that may not be available in their local store, but the company can locate let's say in new york and find the same size somewhere in california and ship it out to you. and those companies have a k5i7 ability and they're winning as a result, too. >> what sort of retail stocks would you put in your portfolio? >> i think you have to find something that offers newness to the consumer. that is pure price compare ability. i think you want a somewhat more upscale shopper and a beg presence on the internet, so i would say things like nordstrom, again, the leading u.s. retailer in terms of the internet and its capability. i think the likes of limited brands which pretty much owns the lingerie space in america has big scope to gro internationally, as well.
and estee lauder has a big opportunity, again. that's the nature of stocks i'd be looking at. good thank you very much for stopping by. we are still taking your correspondence and we're getting more about the storm. nigel writes is sandy a boy or a girl? >> girl. hurricanes are girls. good i was noting the other day famous sandy names and i was thinking of grease. >> absolutely. that's all i could come up with, as well. unfortunately, it's also alexander in scottish varieties. >> but this is the traditional way it goes. even if they're downgraded to storms, they are a girl. >> katrina, irene, other girls. >> never had patricia.
>> you work through the alphabet. >> also nigel saying the crane has come down, which shows you the amount of destruction. >> if the best story we can get there new york is a crane that was dangling from, what, 50 odd floors up from yesterday when it was damaged, then actually the level of destruction is not that great. >> but we do of course have a high casualty list and also quite a number of people have died, too. so let's remember that it has been destructive in some parts. of course 30 people lost their lives in the storm. still to come, politics takes a breather over in the u.s. acai clone sandy makes its way across the east coast, but with the election just days away, the focus is bound to turn back to the key states. we talk u.s. politics next.
freeman joins us now. ron, first up before we talk about the resumption on the campaign trail, let's talk about the possible reaction. because there are so many different ways to see this whether obama looks presidential, whether he makes a policy misstep to his reaction to the store, whether the early voting has been impacted. who will benefit from this and does it have an impact of swinging the election outcome? >> there's certainly an ill wind, but fortunately for obama, it's affecting mainly states in which his majority is just about assured. new york is a very strong democratic state. obama has new york in his pocket. i think it's also true for most of the eastern seaboard. it's the center of the united states where most of the problems are. the only real swing state on the eastern seaboard that's affected by the storm is virginia. >> when it comes to the election
will be held, we haven't had confirmation whether it will be delayed, but so far it seems the date will still be held in a week from now, but i want to pick up on the early voting because the obama camp is hoping to encourage many people it get out to the polls early. obama himself also casting the vote early. the timing of this is important because we have the u.s. jobs figures supposedly coming out at the end of the week. if people don't get out there and vote and the numbers come in a little bit different from what was expected, could this have an impact? >> it could. getting the vote out is critical at the local level. and of course the election now comes down to six key states and within those, and they're up on your board now, and within those states, a small number of counties within those states. and there the democrats seem to have done a better job in creating local office, getting volunteers to get in their car, bring people to the poll, make sure they voted either early or
on tuesday november 6. so there seems to be a slight lead. ohio of course is a big question mark, but the latest polls say that obama seems to have that. if that's true, governor romney will have his hands full to put together 270 electoral votes. >> a month ago european media was dismissive of romney. but today they're saying the obama campaign is hitting major headwinds and that the momentum is all with romney. and yet the polls are not mov g movings as much as the media in europe would suggest. why do you think the europeans are misreading this election? >> there was a worldwide survey of 21 countries who sas to who they would prefer.
21 countries preferred obama. pakistan preferred romney. i think the stories i've been hearing are really just stories. as far as the three debates were concerned, i think it's a general view that romney was certainly more vigorous in the first debate. but most people i've spoken to and my own view is the same said in the second and third debate, president obama decided that he had to deal with this and scored very good points. and i would say most people gave him the edge on the second and third debate. so the news stories focused really on governor romney's vigorous report in the first debate in which he swung away from being a radical republican which he had to be to get his party's nomination and tried to look like a centrist and i think that surprised everyone including obama. >> he also managed to look presidential in those debates, as well, and that was something that perhaps carried him further in the polls than many expected. and does the storm destroy some of that lead that he gained because obama naturally have the advantages in the situation room, he's managing the storm even if it's not as strong as some people initially forecast.
doesn't he reclaim that presidential advantage? >> i think he certainly does. after all, governor romney has no official duties whatsoever. he's been running for president since he left the governorship in 2007. president obama seems to be doing a good job. this is not a replay of bush in new orleans with hurricane katrina. we want to see the power restored as quickly as possible and for the press for say the cleanup has been done with effectiveness. >> let's bring that up chart again of the swing states if we can. because we're looking at where the fortunes rest. and just what's at stake in the battlegrounds. and you can see colorado very close, florida, eye washing michigan, missouri, nevada, these states, they're neck and neck, ron. so as soon as the storm passes by, where are obama and romney be targeting first? >> they're going to be focussing
on key counties in those states. las vegas, for example, in nevada with a lot of transient population under heavy economic pressure as the gambling industry has gone down this year with the slowdown of the u.s. economy. but i think if we step back from six states and look at history, there are four strong historical indicators which favor president obama. first of all, since the republic began with george washington, 29 presidents have sought re-election, 19 of them have won, only 10 have lost. p that's a 2:1 advantage to president obama. second when the stock market does better than 5% and it's been up 8% during obama's four year, 80% of the incumbents win. when it's below 5%, only 40 respect abo respe respect% of them win. finally, governor romney is 14 years older than obama. no one who is 14 years would older has taken the white house. and he's the third oldest
candidate ever to run for president behind reagan and harrison. so history is on obama's side. >> appreciate the stats. we have someone writing in all this on the back of hurricane season, michael, let's continue with you because we've been looking at a lot of earns and not seeing a huge impact with the storm. investors choosing to trade -- >> lot of bears worried about the top line, but you've crunched through some of the numbers. >> it's not so bad. we were a bit worried about the third quarter. i've been calling it would be the year of the economic cycle. pmi data seems to be suggesting
that. and here we are, we have 51% the company beating on the earnings line. 36 missing, so a net positive of 12. sales line, we have a net positive of six. it's not a disaster. >> capex is not the priority. and bp raising dividends by almost 12%, that means they're not putting the money in to any kind of investment expansion but giving it back to the shareholders. >> companies are becoming shareholder favorable. and that's a big shift. but the bottom line is if it
seems like we're in the middle of a firestorm within europe, if companies are still beating earnings, and they are at multidecade valuations lows, there seems to be a real attractiveness. >> we have some numbers breaking. we had german jobless numbers for the month of october, seasonallied a gisted up 20,000. we actually looked at an increase of 10,000, that is beating here on the seasonaled a gistment, up 12,000. economists saw it up 10,000. also october jobless rate 6.9% bang in line with expectation. unadjusted edged 2.75 million people unemployed. so that is actually pretty perky, i would say. >> better jobless figures in the uk, better consumer sentiment.