tv Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo CNBC December 17, 2012 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
be -- we're going to be in a narrow trading range. >> we're up 106 points right now. you're missi ining this rally h costa. >> i'm not buying into this one. i really am not. i'm going to wait until something doesn't come. market sells off which it should. i'm going to buy then. >> very good. thank you both. we are going out near the highs of the session. we were up 106 a moment ago. now 100 toward the end of the close. that is the first hour of the "closing bell." on a crowded trading floor. here's hour number two. i'll see you tomorrow. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. hopes for a fiscal cliff deal before the deadline pushing sympt
stocks up early. look around the set. it is packed as the bell has rung here. lots of people standing around on the floor also talking about the idea that we could be close to an agreement. however, we are now looking at next week after christmas. let's take a look at how we're finishing on wall street. the industrial jones average finishing up on the day. 13238. last trade on the nasdaq and the s&p 500 tonight. better than 1% on the session. only nine more trading sessions until the fiscal cliff deadline. how do you want to position yourself right now? joining me right now is mark keon. good to have you on the program. thank you so much for joining me. ed, let's kick it off with you. you've been a student of fundamentals so long. what are you expecting out of 2013 on earnings and economics? >> i think 2013 will be a
somewhat better than expected year. i think the upside to economic growth. let's say 3% growth is more likely than 2% which is the con s census. >> is there anything that worries you about the anticipation going into the fiscal cliff that puts a cramp in anything for 2013? we all know businesses have been hoarding cash. individuals are also hearing it a lot on the media. >> well, i think there's a lot of risk going into the new year, but i think if we put aside the noise of the fiscal cliff and focus on the fundamentals, it's getting better. earnings have been kind of flat so far this year, but looks like they'll be better next year. the international situation is getting calmer. the spreads have come down. i think as we go into the new year, there's plenty of things to worry about. but that's good. >> rex macy, how are you allocated capital? >> we're sticking with equities, maria. the idea of the fiscal cliff,
it's a nice metaphor, but it's flawed. if we don't have a deal come december 31st, we don't wake up on january 1st in a recession. that's not the way it works. we're not worried about it overly. but we think we're going to get a deal and we think equities are going to do just fine. >> any specific areas that you want to look at? >> we like health care and technology. and on the fixed income side we think investors should be looking at high yield bonds as well. >> rick santelli what did you see today in chicago? we had money moving into equities. i wonder if that had implications. >> i think it does. i think there's a nervousness out there. maybe this is giving us one little taste of what it would be like to have a full blown reversal in the fixed income market. i don't think it will last long, but it is going to give us a sense of selling. as many of the high profitable traits and long positions come out of the treasury market. and they will find their way
into either cash or equities. and i think the fiscal cliff, i don't think we're going to get a really good solution if you're worried about the next debt ceiling level. but i think it'll take the markets a few weeks to figure that out. and if you look at this year, we reach the high yield for treasuries in the first quarter. i think that could be very comparable to how it looks in 2013. >> and jeff cleveland, let me ask you the same question in terms of allocating capital and your expectations for the new year. >> i think i agree that the economy doesn't fundamentally change at midnight on 12:31. so we're not worried about a recession. what we are worried about is people expect a deal to get done and they think we'll have a surge of economic growth. and we don't expect that either. growth will remain moderate. interest rates remain low. and the real big picture is a shortage of safe assets. there's only so many government bonds out there keeping slemts
low. we like the ig credit so sector and we like high yield bopds. that's where you'll see your opportunities for income for the year. >> okay. so are you going to be doing -- are you going to be doing dividend payers? >> i think you look anywhere you can get income. dividends are good. the key here is what's the big picture and story. it's a shortage of safe assets. the fed and all of their actions in the last ten days have just exacerbated those safe assets by removing some from the system. other things hitting at the system, that's going exacerbate the shortage of safe assets and keep yields low. anywhere where you have an income-producing opportunity out there, that's where investors need to keep their assets. don't worry about recession or acceleration of growth. >> does the tax story get in the way, ed? what's your term of taking tax
rates higher? >> tax rates are going higher. i personally think that's already priced in. where is the best overall total return possibly. i think that's going to be in the stock market. and i think this year is a great example. we're going to be up over 15% for the year in total return for s&p at the end of the day. that's much better than any place in the fixed income market. i think that's the story next year. people take on more risk as their fear gets further away from the fiscal crisis. >> we appreciate your time tonight, gentlemen. thanks very much, all of you. we've got a big upgrade on the financials. one of the reasons we saw movements in the stocks today. we'll have that report for you when we come right back. stay with us on this report. then wall street veteran dick bove, one of the first to warn us about mortgage backed security. he will tell us why he retired from rochdale securities today.
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welcome back. still more questions than answers three days after the tragic newtown, connecticut, school shooting. let's go live to jay gray. he has the latest developments on this horrific story. >> reporter: hey there, maria. every day here brings a more difficult task. today providing the toughest. this grieving community gathering to say the first two of 26 emotional good-byes. two 6-year-old boys laid to rest today. their friends and family gathering to say those good-byes. that as the investigation continues as well. and we're learning more from police about what exactly they're looking for and what they found. they say they have a wealth of evidence that's been recovered. not only from the lanza home but also the school here. they also warn that the school
will likely remain a crime scene for several months. that this investigation is going to take quite some time. that they have more than 100 witnesses to interview. that includes some of the young children who survived the massacre at sandy hook elementary. of course they're being very patient with those children. waiting until the time is right. and say they will only talk to them, only ask them questions in the presence of a psychologist who can help them understand and help the investigators understand how to work through that process. it's a process they're playing close to the vest now. won't say what type of evidence they've recovered. there are reports that they may not get much from the home computer of the gunman adam lanza because he apparently crushed that computer, tore it to shreds before the attack. and made specifically sure that the hard drive was damaged. now, if that computer's been recovered and that's all police will say officially, they do
have forensic experts to glean whatever they can from that. this is going to be a long own difficult process. they were asked today why go through this? we know sne parameters of what happened here. that adam lanza burst into e the school with an automatic rifle, killed these 20 children and six adults then turned a weapon on himself. it was very pointed, the response. police said we are finding out every answer we can for the survivors here for the families and this town. they think that's crucial for anything to move forward here as they begin what is a very difficult process of burying those who were killed. back to you. >> thank you so much, jay gray, with the latest there. we'll check back with you as news develops. meanwhile, more breaking news on the financials. meredith whitney today upgrading financials. telling clients she's moving to a positive stance on the group ahead of what she says will be
catalysts. she's upgrading citi, bank of america, and discover. those stocks did well today. she upgraded the group today and says the banks right now are more than capitalized. the catalysts for the stocks will be march in 2013 when the fed will release the latest results which will -- she expects, approve the bank's plans to return more capital to shareholders and dividend hikes. after which she's expecting bank of america could quadruple its dividend. and will allow some banks to be more execution dependent than market dependent. a bias we always prefer. so she's upgrading these stocks. she's looking for huge returns in some of these. citi and bank of america and discover are the three names she's upgrading today. also taking a positive stance overall on the financial services sector. meredith whitney will be my guest tomorrow.
talking about this call where she upgraded the banks today. she is telling clients this right now. my next guest is one of the most well known analysts due to his early warnings on the 2008 financial crisis. you know he is leaving rochdale securities after another unauthorized trade by a colleague put rochdale in the red. dick bove is with me more to talk about financials. dick, good to see you. thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you, maria. >> so who are you likely to sign with? there are rumors you're heading to rafferty or cantor. what's your plan? >> i've had an opportunity to look at 20 firms in the last couple months. i've interviewed with 11 of them. i came up with ten offers. basically what i decided after going through the industry is that what i want to be is an analyst who speaks their mind, so i'm looking for a small firm which is well capitalized and has a consistent record of
profitability. and fortunately there are a few of those out there. and apparently there are a few of them that would like me to join them. i think having had to resign from rochdale because rochdale doesn't appear to come out of its problem, i don't need a bushel of apples just yet. >> do you think rochdale survives, dick? >> it's going to be a very difficult road for them, because a firm of its size cannot handle a billion dollar trade by a rogue trader. and it's very unfortunate because the people of rochdale, i thought, were of the highest quality and i really loved working at the firm. because it allowed me the freedom to operate as an independent analyst. just terrific people. it was a terrific place to be. and unfortunately, you know, an atom bomb fell on the company and they're having trouble coming out of it. >> let me move on to some of the banks and the research you've been doing as always a terrific
job in terms of really analyzing these firms. meredith whitney today told her own clients that she's going to be taking a positive stance on the financials. she of course like yourself called a lot of the happenings in the financial services group. do you agree that there are catalysts on the horizon for the banks in 2013? she says that one of the key cat catalysts is the c-car where they approve the use of capital and paying back to shareholders. >> the simple answer is i think meredith is right. but she should have said it in 2011. in other words, basically for the last 14 quarters, right? 14 quarters, three and a half years. the earnings of the banking companies have been up on a year over year basis. in the last quarter, they earned roughly $37 billion. these are all the fdic banks in the united states. and the highest earnings of the banking industry ever in a quarter are slightly over $38 billion. the industry is likely to touch
that $38 billion level. so there's a good chance that the fourth quarter of this year will be the highest earning period ever in the history of the american banking industry. and when you take a look at that $38 billion relative to the $25 billion that was earned in the fourth quarter last year, it'll be a 50% increase in the earnings of the industry in that quarter. in 2013, the probability is that the industry will go through the $38 billion level on a quarterly basis. and at the same time because the industry is massively overcapitalized and because it basically has an enormous amount of excess liquidity, the dividends will go up. the stock buyback programs will increase. so the outlook for the industry which has been superb for two years now, probably three years, it basically is only going to get better in 2013. >> right. >> the issue is why hasn't the market recognized it. >> one of the things i guess meredith is expecting is huge
dividend increases. you mentioned it there. she thinks that bank of america for example will take its dividends quadrupling higher. do you agree with that? i mean, that can't be priced into the stock even though it has had a great year. >> no, it hasn't been priced into the stock. the fact of the matter is she's being very conservative in her estimate. the likelihood is bank of america will pay 30% of its earnings out as dividends at some point over the next couple years. that's far more than a quadrupling of their dividend. it's also true that most of the banking companies should get to that 30%, 35% payout ratio of earnings. if you look at what they're earning, there are companies like wells fargo, pnc financial and a raft of other who is have been reporting record earnings quarter after quarter all through 2012 and in 2011. so in other words, you know, while we've been holding our heads and weeping and wailing
about this industry, it's simply been increasing its earnings at a rapid rate. >> yeah. and the capital is one of the bigger stories there. they've raised an enormous amount of capital and are now overcapitalized in some cases. meredith is upgrading these three names but she also says she's going to expect meaningful upside for the entire group in general. now i ask you, dick bove, we've only got nine trading days left in 2012. what's the opportunity for the banks? where would you put money to work? >> because i'm without a portfolio, i can't give you specific names, but broadly speaking i think if you think about the fact there's a huge increase in money supply over the last couple years by every central bank in the world and that the brokerage which would be morgan, stanley, have not
benefitted yet by that huge includes nz money supply. you have to assume that money will be converted into securities. that trading activity will pick up dramatically. that investment banking opportunities right now are probably greater than they've been in decades. so that those companies which play this market. should do extraordinarily well over the next two to three years. not just in 2013. you know, we've been through this in the 1990s when the banks were knocked down because of a small bank crisis. which was more devastating than the one that we just came through. and we noticed that over a six to eight year period, the earnings of these companies continued to rise. and dividends continued to go up. the stock buybacks continued to increase. and why, oh, why the market has not recognized this to this point is shocking. but it will recognize it and the stocks will do well. >> certainly we've been seeing a
handful of them doing well here. dick, always nice to have you on the program. come back soon. and we'll watch for any new developments in your personal story there. thank you so much. dick bove. sometimes more is actually less. somebody here says the recent wave of homeowners looking to trade up may be setting the stage for another financial meltdown. we've got a discussion on that coming next. and later, will millionaires really tighten their wall lets due to higher income tax rate? the impact of taxing the rich coming up. stay with us. bob, these projections... they're... optimistic.
why they have a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally.
welcome back. new year bigger house. a survey shows more homeowners are planning to upsize in 2012. our diana olick with the details. >> say they want to either stay in the same sized home or upsize in their next home. no more downsizing. historically you can see homes have been getting bigger since the 1970s. but look at just the last decade. a big spike in home size peaking in 2007. and then like sales and prices, size, too, dropped off precipito precipitously. then the first bump up again in size. and 68 president of millennials want a bigger home to accommodate a grower family. just 28% of baby boomers aged 55
to 59 say they want their next home to be smaller. this all goes against the trend toward more urban living which tends to be smaller. the american institute of architects say half of homes surveyed say they're seeing a higher jump saying 59% want to be near public transportation. this goes again to that rental demand in urban centers. but both surveys point to a reversal away from the excerpts which are all the rage in the hay days. >> if homeowners are looking to upsize back into mcmansions, is that a return to risky thinking? an action that led us to the housing implosion a few years ago. we'll talk to david lichen and doug blip. diana olick also with us. david, why are you concerned about this desire for more home
right now? home and bigger homes. >> i'm thinking of the george santiana. the spanish philosopher who says what we fail to learn from history, we're doomed to repeat. it amazes me this group is already out looking to buy a bigger home. if they have good job, good employment security and they're getting kids and need large rooms, i get it. but i would be cautious right at this particular time to be moving up too quickly. let's wait. give it a quarter. least see where this thing goes after the big proverbial fiscal cliff issue and see how we deal with that. >> should it be a concern for buying a bigger house or more people living in know house and they're not flipping it. i mean, the surroundings, the environment. the landscape is different today. >> right. we're talking about multigenerational living. having your parents move in with you, not just your kids. or having empty nesters. and that's part of the economy.
and part of the jobs picture also. we have a lot of baby boomers who lost a lot of their equity in their homes and were unable to move out and downsize and are moving in with families. this creates a need for larger houses. we see a lot building these in-law suites to accommodate that. this is a home builder doing this survey. obviously they want to see bigger homes because bigger homes are more expensive. >> fred, what do you think? does the inability to get stated no dock loans take away the riskiness of upsizing? if a buyer is going to buy a bigger home but they've proven they can afford it. >> what you're finding is you're getting multiple people going on the mortgage application so that they can combine all the income. tiny thing i'm worried about is the kids come back home, they go on with their parents on the mortgage and then three years later they move out and now you
don't have as much income. so there's a tiny little thing. but i don't think it's a big deal. i see this more of people wanting more space because of things like this. i want to be alone. i want to watch a movie. there's so many of these out there. the a-brand or whatever else. people just want to be alone a little bit more and they want more space in their house. and that's okay. >> what about the idea that, you know, we had so much supply in the market and the supply is getting lower and lower? i mean, if you're talking about bigger ownership and higher numbers here in a healthy environment, isn't that just more an indication that housing perhaps may have bottomed as opposed to an indication that we're back to risk on and irresponsible behavior? >> it's everybody's little individual thing. in some markets there's going to be no housing activity. some are going to have a bit of rehab. and you're expanding on a two story property that maybe you
put to a three story property now. but you're not going to have the mcmansions again. we could probably demolish 25,000 of them across the united states and nobody would feel it. people don't want that much. >> we'll leave it there. we'll keep watching this. thank you so much. that's a critical part of the economic story. thank you so much. take a short break and then fast cars, diamond studded watches, luxury yachts. will seven figure earnings buy fewer toys and cut back on investing when their income taxes go up next year or not? we'll discuss that. also as the clock winds down on 2012, we have top money pros telling you what they're watching for tomorrow's markets. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] this december, remember --
welcome back. how much revenue will be raised from the tax hikes on million dollar-plus earnings? robert frank has been crunching the numbers. >> thanks. it's not a lot at least by government standards. let's look at the two definitions of rich here. the first is the obama rich. we know those are folk who is make $250,000 or more a year. about 2.8 million of them. the obama rich account for about 2% of total tax filers. the boehner rich are more of an elite club. those who make $1 million or
more a year. there are about 368,000 of them. about .2 of the top 1%. raising taxes on that group raises a lot less revenue. if we raise taxes to 39.6% of the obama rich we get around $44 billion next year. we raise taxes on the boehner rich, that gives us less than half that amount, about $20 billion. aside from the smaller numbers, the boehner rich also get more of their income from capital gains which are of course taxed at a lower rate. so raising their income tax rate has less of an impact. and $20 billion is still a lot of money. and boehner's offer is just a starting point. they could agree to a midpoint. but in government terms, boehner's plan is more valuable for its politics than its economics. back to you. >> all right, robert. thank you so much. robert, stay with us. so the tax revenue from the boehner rich may not make much
of a dent when it comes to the deficit. but what does it mean for the spending habits of those with a higher tax bill. joining me now a ron weiner. once again our own robert frank also joining the conversation. great to see you guys. thank you so much for joining us. you say it won't impact spending habits. if the rich see their rates go higher, you don't think it will impact what they spend their money on. >> i don't think it will impact their lifestyle at all. in fact, the only time my wealthy clients high net worth clients when their spending habits are affected are when their portfolios are down during any given week. i don't think it'll effect their spending habits whatsoever. >> i agree with you. we're focused so much on the ordinary income tax rates. but aren't the investment taxes much more impactful. the tax on cap gains.
>> i agree. they are worrisome. that's why many clients are on the sidelines and don't want to do anything. they wanted to buy into a year end rally but they're hesitant. when you don't know the playing rules especially when there's so much disorganization in washington, there's no reason for the client to get involved. but when you add other taxes now, not just cap gains taxes and so on, now you're talking about high income cities like new york. you're talking about 53% plus another 3.8% with the obama care medicare surtax. >> so 53 -- 57% of the wealthiest out there -- 57% of their income is going to the government. then ron, you also agree even with that the habits are unlikely to change. >> well, that all depends. someone making a million dollars, $100,000 from dividend, 85 from capital gains. under the 250 rule, they're seeing their taxes go up $70,000
or so. under the million dollar proposal by boehner, that's a $30,000 increase. $30,000 is not that much. but it is after tax money. 70,000 is another number. i think it will affect them somewhat. i'm more worried about their future of what they'll not be saving. even the wealthy have to worry about the future. >> so how does it impact spending and give us the ripple effects of these higher tax rates and how that ripples down. >> you're talking about $6,000 a month out of their pocket. that's $6,000 is often today going to their kids, going to gifting, and going into the market. all that will get shut off. and that's going to effect them. the savings rate on that $6,000 ten years from now, twenty years from now is what's going to support that lifestyle down the road. and they're going to live a long time. >> robert, what about the people you're speaking to? what's the expectation for spending and investing as the rates come into play?
>> i think it really depends on the segment. you talk about someone earning a million dollars or more a year, not a huge impact. 250 and above, that's a large segment of people almost 3 million people. these tax rates do mrt. we've already seen how these rates or the threat of them are changing behaviors. people are selling homes, selling businesses, and selling stock in advance of these increases. so it may not change shopping this holiday season or day-to-day earnings, but we're seeing a huge amount of income shift to this year to next year. >> that's what i'm talking about. exactly right. because you already see people saying the capital gains number is 15% now, why shouldn't i sell my home by year end and the stocks i've made money on. knowing that cap gains go to 27%. >> we have a plan for that to happen. accountants usually tell their clients to defer income and
accelerate deductions. that's the opposite at this time of the year. accountants that i work with that are working closely with their clients. they're saying axccelerate the income. >> they're even saying that when it comes to chartable deductions. nobody is sure if the charitable deductions is going away either. what about the little guys portfolio. the retail investor. do they get impacted by these ripping effects? >> i think absolutely. >> yeah? >> yeah. i would see the small guy pay taxes somewhere. we haven't seen all the details of the tax plan. but i think when the wealthy stop spending or are giving it to the government, then they're going to be buying less. and they're going to be investing less. and when they're buying less, that's less jobs for the working. i think they're going to be a ripple effect right down to the smaller investor. and i think -- i'm sorry go ahead. >> no, no, please. >> okay. i think that the small investor is going to be scared. they're not going to invest. they're going to cause a problem because they don't have much
money to start with. so the wealthy later on are going to be asked to pay for more of their share ongoing to pay for those who don't have it. and that's going to be the smaller non-wealthy person. >> i couldn't agree more. if you're making 250 up to a million, that's going to effect your spending habits. above that i don't think it'll effect their spending habits. >> robert, you said that it's $30 billion that you're raising when you raise just the million dollar folks? >> well, it's $20 billion if you just do the million dollar folks. it's $30 billion if you cut it off at $500,000. whatever the cutoff here, we are at the end of an era. and the wealthy know it. we have had almost ten years of low tax rates historically speaking for the wealthy. and they don't like it, but they are preparing for this. they understand the reality. and so this is not a surprise to
them. but it is in the short-term effecting their incomes, their spending, and the selling of their investments and assets. but this is an end of an age for these people and they know it. >> i think what's going to happen is people like robert and i are going to be busier than ever figuring out how to make up for that tax loss. >> i agree. >> and the accountants are going to be busier than ever. time for the wealthy to be smarter than they've ever been. >> i couldn't agree more. absolutely. trust in estate lawyers, cpas and financial advisers, we haven't been as busy like this in a long time. when you think about it, the compensatory damages, the state tax exemption gets lowered at midnight to one million. and the estate tax goes up from 35% to 55%. so we're also talking about if changes aren't made quickly in washington, if they don't get their act together, the estates are going to be paying taxes
too. >> so you work your whole life and pay taxes your whole life and then you die and you want to give some inheritance to your kids and they have to pay 55% on it. >> as of january 1st. >> and so there are a lot of kids this christmas who are getting multimillion dollar checks from their parents if they have it to beat the tax increase. that's the good side of this. >> thanks, gentlemen. lots of insights there. we appreciate your time tonight. we'll see you soon. can you believe it? just nine trading days left in 2012. our panel of wall street's best stock pros share their game plans for tomorrow morning. don't miss that. back in a moment. time to toast today's close with this. this is one of only two known prototypes the magnetic strip credit card was based on. last week it sold for $24,000. well above the high estimate of $15,000. so where has the card been since
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welcome back. the hobble school shooting in connecticut is spurring action from washington lawmakers today. >> hello. the newtown tragedy has energized those who want safer gun controls. senator diane feinstein says she'll introduce new legislation. frank lautenberg will ban high capacity ammunition clips. outgoing joe lieberman wants a national commission on violence. in downtown washington we found people demanding tougher gun control laws. the powerful pro gun lobby. but it was lifetime nra member joe mansion making news today for his call for reasonable restrictions on guns. >> we can protect the second amendment rights. we definitely can protect it. and we will protect it.
but we can look at also ways that we can make our country and our children more safe. i really believe that. that we could sit down and have that dialogue and hopefully movement on that. >> and this afternoon senator patrick leahy announced on the senate floor that he will hold gun safety hearings early next year. >> all right, hampton. thank you so much. fast money beginning in just a few minutes. melissa lee has the preview. >> at the top of the hour on "fast money," with apple continuing its collapse our traders will give you the five text stocks you want to own instead of apple going into the new year. and what does it look like for the mortgage intersection redestruction? analysts will give you the plays you want to play and also the plays you want to stay away from. that and much more top of the
hour on fast. meanwhile you give us a minute and a half, our panel of top pros. stay with us. that's in a moment. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
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welcome back. we want to show you these three upgrades that meredith whitney has made today. she upgraded citi group, bank of america, discover financial. also telling clients today she sees meaningful upside potential for the group. she is shifting to a positive stance on the banks for a number of catalysts she expects to happen. the c-car in march when the federal reserve will approve or not approve the bank's capital programs. that means shareholders through dividends or buy-backs. expecting that to be good. she thinks bank of america quadruple its dividend. she says you want to own these stocks right now. there's the three specifics she upgraded. she's looking for potential in 2013. 30 seconds, we're going to be speaking to meredith whitney
tomorrow, typically a market mover. she's going to be joining me tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. eastern right here. 30 seconds on the clock, our next guests are here now to tell us what could move the markets tomorrow. kimberly foss. stephen rosen. and rich peterson. good to see you all. thank you for joining us. kimberly, you've got 30 seconds on the clock. what do you look for tomorrow? >> hey, maria. we're looking for the housing billing index tomorrow to be going up. we think it's going to be positive. obviously reflects the sentiment of the average investor and their financial candidaondition. we're looking at the fiscal cliff and what's happening with the backdrop of boehner. a lot of people are focused on 401(k). finally, the consumer sentiment number on friday. boomers are big part of that. they're a big part of my practice. if they're spending, that means the economy is growing. good thing for the market altogether.
>> stephen, you're up. 30 seconds on the clock. what do you want to look at to move our money tomorrow? >> yeah, sure. we're focusing on the euro dollar right now. in the e byty, it's kind of hard to see the forest through the year s trees. i think a lot of that has been supported by the weak dollar. the currency markets are definitery much deeper. i think if the euro really touches the year highs at 134, we're really going to see this s&p take off. probably to the post-election lows. >> all right. and tomorrow, anything specific on the horizon in terms of moving the stock market at the open? >> i don't think so. i think it's just going to be all headlines out of washington, to be honest. and it's -- there's no economic numbers, the housing starts we don't think are big enough. really the housing data, it's not big enough to move the markets yet. maybe that's enough. maybe the financials will lead us higher. >> financials could be the thing. rich, you're up. >> sure, maria.
i think what we'll see tomorrow, again, financials not really the upgrade. what we're seeing from the data. the best quarter this year for activity, over $250 billion. the fiscal cliff is propefling a lot of activity. this year, 150 deals over $1 billion. that compares to 130 last year. busiest year for billion dollar deals since 2007. also, the special dividends trading wealth effect for investor class. going to spend down money probably by year end and reflected in the higher retail sales. >> all right, let me get your take. you mentioned earlier, financials have been the best performer in 2012. what kind of impact do you expect on the financials tomorrow from meredith's call to upgrade the group? >> i think -- we saw goldman rally, all the shares rally today. not only with the eminent activity, but all the debt and the financing that's been required to rebuild from sandy in 2013 is going to be a catalyst for capital markets to
underwriting issue and help those firm's earnings. >> thanks, everybody. we'll see you soon. news in afterhours, element let's go to a quick market flash. >> maria, we continue to see companies trying to deploy cash here. allstate, one of them that is actually accelerating its share buyback, deploying a billion dollars, it is going to issue some stock and debt later to pay for that but they are accelerating that to do it before december 31st. allstate's dividend yield already is at about 2%. back to you. >> all right, bertha, thank you. so, is nothing sacred? perhaps not. why that could be a very good thing on the road to a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff and bring the debt and deficit of this country under control. stale with us, that's next. yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
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its all fabulous but i give florida the edge. right after mississippi. you mean alabama. say louisiana or there's no dessert. this invitation is brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. and finally today, my observation on what the road to a real deal to bend the kefsh on our debt. it is littered with slaughtered sacred cows. john boehner today making an official offer on a fiscal cliff deal. of course, that offer includes higher tax rates. now, i understand this offer is
for only those who earn more than $1 million each year. where that number ends is not that important in this case. of course, the president is seeking to $250,000, but the fact that boehner has given up the sacred cow of never raising tax rates on anybody is actually quite significant. now, democrats must kill off their own sacred cows. the president should make it clear that cuts to medicare and social security are, in fact, on the table. forget the likely truth that boehner does not have the votes to pass any kind of rate increase without serious spending cuts. but more importantly, america needs to face facts. our tax revenue is not the driver of our spiraling debt. which now, of course, tops $1 trillion a year, for four years going. it is our spending. and it is our entitlement spending that is the biggest culprit. and there is almost no reasonable way to get enough tax revenue to fix this problem. without serious spending cuts. look what giving up sacred cows
can do for the market. the dow starting off with a 100-point game, because republicans have signaled with this move, they will rise above on this very contentious issue of tax hikes. imagine the rally we could get if democrats also admit that their sacred cows are no longer so sacresacred. maybe baby steps. let's get to bertha for today's winners and losers. bertha? >> look over here at the wall, it's kind of telling the story. we had a pretty big monster rally today in terms of most everything in the s&p 500 today, was in the green. very few losers here. we had a couple of, hp was one of the losers, jcpenney, but nothing off more than 1% and change or so. as you mentioned, today, financials were the best performers. even before that meredith whitney call offhoafter hours, d bank of america closing for the fi