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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 12, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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we help collect each year. no? oh, right. you're thinking of the 1.6 million daily customer care interactions xerox handles. or the 900 million health insurance claims we process. so, it's no surprise to you that companies depend on today's xerox for services that simplify how work gets done. which is...pretty much what we've always stood for. with xerox, you're ready for real business. time for a dweet. reuters says that yahoo! ceo marissa mayer getting a pushback over her hiring practice. . bob writes, pay me only in stock. jason writes, what's google? that probably would work. and andy writes, i came prepared
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for the job with a tent. i'm willing to make my workplace my home instead of the other way around. andrew writes, i own an hv, are there any hook-ups in the parking lot? let's get back to wapner and the halftime. >> carl, thanks. welcome to the halftime show. four hours ago, the dow is up three points. s&p is trying to get to that all-time record high. 1576 is where it needs to go. it has some work to do. here's what we're following. grading the rally. the dean of valuation on whether stocks a s ars are still cheap it means for your money. yummy again, yum shares are higher. is the worst now over for the fast food company? first, our top story. record watch. it's the s&p 500, that's fast approaching its all-time high as calls for correction grow louder. trading today with steven wise,
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mike murphy, and ryan kelly. wise, how long have k. the rally last? >> i think the rally is going to last quite some time. i think we're looking at the rally going at least to the end of the year. however, we're due for a little consolidation phase. that us didn't mean a 10% correction. it means 3%, 5% holdback. right now near with a no news period but we'll go through that. it's natural to rest. i still think the market is not being too -- i mean, getting to a record. you think of breaking out the champagne and the hats. we're not doing that. it's a very orderly march up. it's very discriminatory in terms of the sectors that we're in. i think you have to be invested. >> so the question then becomes, everybody says we need to rest, right? there's people who say we are going to get a correction. 2%, 3%, maybe 10%. we don't look like we're ready to rest. why not? what's going to get that correction that people are looking for actually happening? >> probably what gets us into a correction is what we really don't know about so i think the
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question becomes, where is it as a money manager that you see protecti protection. i've identified a level. you've got the s&p 500 right now trading at 1550. if you go back to february 19, february 20, 1530.98 high. that right now has become support for the market. should the market break below there, no questions asked. that's where i have to seek protection. what aim doing in the here and now. i believe the run in the u.s. dollar which has been incredibly strong, that is the prevailing trend. bullish for the year. i think you might get softening here on the back of that. bought scce which is a play on copper and a little bit of weakness on the dollar. >> murphy, how long can this rally last? >> the rally can continue as long as we have the same environment that we're in. >> what do you mean? fed there? >> the fed is there backstop,ing the market. >> economy improving. >> economy improving. >> earnings not drying up? >> not drying up. at the same time, you don't have the major negative news from europe. you're not getting anything where you can say that would
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lead to, as joe point eed about like an italian election that leads to a 2% or 3% pullback. you stay long the core names and puts that have historical lows. if and when we do pull back, we will, when you do you're covered with your puts. >> you're getting more nervous the higher is market gets? >> absolutely. we have a lot of things out there that are a problem. france industrial production plunged. uk industrial production plunged. you have italian next week, they're going to go through this whole rigger what role that is trying to pick their next prime minister. jpmorgan had a great note out this morning talking about about how the best case scenario is bad in that situation. they may have some elections in june. you have anies there weakening. >> china data the other day wasn't good. you know what i say about that? market don't care. >> i would agree that the market doesn't care now but we need to
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be careful of that. approaching all-time highs here. the fed is there certainly but if the fed -- if quantitative easing works they found this magic formula that they'll never -- we never have to worry about the business cycle again. >> we need a shock headline of some sort, a shock data point, a shock development to push the correction? >> it's never what you think about. what's why it's a correction because it comes as a surprise. to b.k.'s point, the only thing i would ask, how much as dragi spent? what are interest rates versus what our interest rates are? how many dollars has he spent -- >> saving it up. >> exactly. how much has he spent on buying sovereign debt, okay? nothing. >> nothing. >> exact. line of firepower. >> he's got a lot of firepower. >> but that assuming, one, that he wants to use that firepower. he could have used it last week but reluctant to do so. >> didn't have to.
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>> scott, the big concern here. everyone is talking about when will the fed step away. everyone is trying to be the ma smartest guy in the room. that may get sticky. it may not. but it's definitely not happening tomorrow or the next day. right now stick with what's in front of you. forget about what's happening six months, nine months down the road. right now you have an market that is an orderly march higher. play the market in front of you. >> quick story. about 20 years ago a prominent money manager, now a very large hedge manager told me, thinking about corrections is about thinking about who is going to rob your house. you never know who it is but you better know once they're inside now know what you're doing to do. >> which stocks are going to lead the way? bob, welcome. >> thank you. >> i know you've been listening to this conversation. give me first your overall thought about where we go from here. >> i love the path of least resistance continues to be higher.
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ideal conditions in an economy that's operating on five or six out of eight cylinders. that keeps the pedal to the metal on interest rates. it's a recipe for, i might add, other assets that don't provide much return. that's why stocks are moving higher. >> yeah, bob, i'm worried, right? they're going higher. everybody says they're going to go higher except for a few new voices who say we're going to have a correction. by and large, the traders on my desk are saying we're going higher. we know markets don't go up forever. how steep is a correction going to be once it actually happens? >> if the fundamentals remain intact as they are, weak as they are, the correction won't be that much. it will be a few percent. enough for us to have long-term horizons. >> you say buying opportunity, right? that's what you're saying. it's only going to go down a few percentage points. where would you do that? >> yeah, i continue to think that some of the free cash flow stories are the place to be. and they come across lots of
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different sick i canically calls. se mthey are giving us a dividend. a new ceo in place. and, you know, look at the storage and security markets continue to be growth markets. in health care, i would nominate becky dickinson. they are three businesses. all three are improving. the company has, in my mind, worth high single digit growth in a selling out of pe ratio less than the market. and then given the fact we've run so hard, acknowledge we pull back, i want defense in my for the polio, pun intended. a name like raytheon. a company with flattish earnings and pe that is less than ten times. those kinds of names make sense to me. >> ten-year yield today.
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it's 5202. a lot of talk about whether we will see the great rotation. what do you think? are we gonna and when does it happen when we do? >> so far as you know b money that's gone to equities have mostly come out of cash and not out of treasuries. half the stock and the stock market as a whole has a higher yield. that's rare and i think a good opportunity if i had the firepower i would do the great rotation right now. >> bob, it's been good to have you. nice to see you at your new place of employment. certainly glad to have you back on the "halftime" as well. >> thanks much. >> bob doll. what do you think? >> let me talk about semantic. yesterday we had a conversation related to technology. i like the focus for enterprise on suecurity. by buy pal loalto networks.
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>> do you think anything about dickinson or raytheon. >> you would expect that the defense stocks would get hit and hit hard but just the opposite has happened. raytheon, it's had flattish earnings. the stock can go to new highs. >> dickinson is a new name, it's going to move up with the market generally. if your going to be in health care though, what i prefer, the hops which are doing extremely well, they're up 28% year to date. they will keep going because of obama care. obama care will take care away their bad debt expense and increase the hospital. 10 to 12 earnings should go higher. >> raytheon, it's interesting when you have bad news the stocks hold up well and end up going higher. i like stories like that. defense is certainly something you've got to cut back but when you really need it you know the money is there. >> obviously the markets a come a long way. we're going to debate throughout
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the show whether we think it goes lower or higher. up later, nyu professioners aswa trk h smais they dontaran. are stocks still cheap given where we are right now? he will answer that question later in the show. one of our traders is making a move in sporting goods reta retailer dick's sporting goods. >> yesterday i said i was going to look at and i did look at and i did buy it. here's why. with companies suffer fred being too conservative in the inventory management. so their cold weather gear really didn't sell because we had an unseasonably warm winner. when the cold weather did come they didn't have the inventory to meet the sales that were coming in because they already marked down and they got rid of it. i would much rather have a company orrer on the side of being conservative than lugging around inventory that's not selling. the stock's still relatively
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inexpensive. goldman added it to their conviction list today. and basically, it's the only major player out there in sporting goods. sports authority is not a great shopping experience. as part of the team took it public actually years ago. i don't think they're going to do well against dick's. remodeling. >> the flip side argument could be they miscalculated their inventories, right? you sort of spin it positive for your point of view but they miscalculated their inventories. >> they did but there are so many decisions you have to make every single day as a management team. you would rather err on the side of caution. is the big picture still intact? yes, it is. >> if you look at cabella's, they had great news today. stocks up 10% on the day. it's a good trade. >> 14 million shares, that's
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seven times what they normally do. >> all right. next up on the "half," positive news from one of the blockbuster drugs. but is this your best big pharma bet? and young brands ticking higher on better than expected china sales. is the worst over now for the company two traders, one stock, one big debate. with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. sales event has begun. ♪ featuring the powerful gs.
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higher today. is the worst behind the fast food giant now? let's debate it. mike murray is our bull. stevenwise is our bear. 1:30 on the clock. big surprising number? make the case. >> what's going on with yum right now they have the negative news in china about two months ago. came out with the first quarter same-store sales and the headline number looks weak. down 20%. it's a two-month quarter. it's january and february. if you read into it a little bit deeper february actually saw an uptick of 2%. so i think you're looking at the worst being behind yum and i think it starts to move back into the mid 70s now. >> i think it's difficult to draw a conclusion on yum with chinese new year which does have a way of skewing sales positively. the way i look at it is that i'll give you that maybe the sales are coming back. down 0% versus down 25% which is what expectations were, you know, let's all pop champagne on that one. but here's the deal. the fast food industry is
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incredibly competitive both here and it's getting competitive over there. i just think that the price that the stock is selling, having recovered most of the losses if not all of the losses from china, you're giving a lot more credit than they deserve. i think in an overstored industry everywhere, that you haven't v. a problem. for china, as a matter of fact, with all the talk of urbanization, people going to the cities, the facts are there's something called haiku where they're not giving residents so people don't have to go into the city. >> you're right about competition. when kentucky fried chicken was down, what did that mean for pizza hut? pizza hut up 12% or 13%. it's a positive when you're seeing a growth in another area of the company. you look, the negative on yum, the reason it came couldn't is because of china. >> brian kelly, who made the more compelling argument on yum? >> steve, i think we have the pop just because china got better. eng at the very least if you're
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in it, take your profits in it. >> all right. tell us who you think won the debate? tweet us at cnbcfastmoney. we're going to reveal the results as we always do at the end of the show. meantime, shares of merck jumping 3%. the drug maker got the green light to continue trial on cholesterol drug vitorin. is the signal more upside from the stock? steve grasso is joining us from the floor of the sye. stock is up 4% on the market. peeled a little off. how do you read it? >> enwhich ever you look at this, especially on a technical of a name, you see these stocks spike or you see them crater. you always want to take the profits when you see a stock spike like this. it's running it to major resistance from back from december 2012. so i think you would be extremely responsible to take the profit. it's the same way if a stock craters, you kind of want to leave it alone before you buy t it. it's a two-day rule.
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>> is this a name -- what other names do you like in the space? >> if you look at pfizer, advertiser is a much more reliable chart. i've owned pfizer forever. it's a small position. i've owned it forever. if you look at the charts and compare them it's a much more dependable chart on a technical basis. for me, i would own pfizer but it's not to say if merck doesn't hold in there you could probably get another $2 on the upside but you're risking $4 to the downside right now i would let it settle in before i would rush back in. >> give me a quick thought on the overall market. are you surprised of the resiliency of the market? we're hanging in there almost regardless of what comes out. today we're fighting for direction but nothing seems to rattle the market. >> everyone is wait for this sell-off. it's most anticipated sell-off and it hasn't happened. i said it the last time. we keep ratcheting up. the dips are bought. i don't know if the dips continue to be bought if we will ever get that sell-off. it's always what you don't
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expect, right? if the market holds 1535 and the s&p cash, we still go higher. >> that's what everybody keeps saying. it's what you don't expect. grasso, good talking to you. see you soon. steve grasso on the floor. how about health care stocks, quick? got a flame that you like better than merck? >> thc, tenet health care. coming up on the "half," the big movers of the day covered in our top three trades. is it finally time to buy gold as the metal closes in on 1600. heading to the futures pit next when we come back. how do traders using technical analysis streamline their process? at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts
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♪ twith blackberry hub10 and flick typing. built to keep you moving. see it in action at blackberry.com/z10. all right. welcome back to the "halftime show." time now for top three trades. at&t can star putting in customers to buy the new blackberry phones. i guess you have to take into consideration the big run it had of that pop that it had
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yesterday. >> the pop that it had yesterday, scott, exactly. and this morning you had the stock trading much higher in premarket trading. right now this is a classic sell the news event. taking into account the run blackberry has had, let's wait for a pullback. no reason to jump in here. >> best buy reinstate with a buy rating and $25 price target at goldman. joe, what's the read here? >> what did you do right now, i think he takes profits on the stock. stock has had an incredible run. i agree with the goldman sachs longer term call. up close to 20 nooft. i don't like it here. you have a small buyback gone and online platform is being built out. plain and simple, take some profits. >> verifone ceo is stepping down. >> if i were ceo nothing we would hate worse is when i left the company the stock is higher. that's what's happening here. there's been issues with the company and what the thinking is that also even though they've
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engaged somebody to go find a new ceo potentially is company is put in play with the ceo gone because there's value there in terms of what they do. i don't know that i would stay with it on this -- at this level. i think it's going to pull back and get a better chance. >> all right. let's talk a little gold now. bouncing today litting the highest level this month. for more, let's go to mandy drury on the futures now desk. mandy? >> comments, driving down the dollar and giving gold a 1% boost. so after the worst start of any year since 1997, scott, has goldfinely found a bottom? well, anthony is at the nymex. i wanton start with you. fake or maybe the start of something bigger here? >> i'm glad you use that word head fake because i'm thinking that's exactly what that is right now. we've got a little strength in the yen. that's helping support gold. i don't think if the ecb comments are doing anything because they talk about how inflation is eeabating. right now we're still very range bound. it's a technical move to the
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upside. unless we break out of that range i'm not sure we're going to go much higher. >> what about you, jim? seen hedge funds dumping it as well. is it maybe finally safe to get in at these levels? >> i think there's different ways to look at it. we focused so much about people getting out of it from long term longs. we also forget there's people shorting it on the way down, too. how quickly it reacted to somewhat minor currency news today. make me think it's due for a short-term, short squeeze. i think it gets up to about 16, 16, 16, 17, before it continues its trend lower. >> got it. okay, guys, we know what you're doing with gold. how about you, viewer? are you buying or selling gold right now? vote in our poll. we're going to review the results on our live show. and today we've got investment l us why he thinks stocks are still cheap. at at 1:00 p.m. eastern. of course, lots more on gold as well. scottie, back over to you.
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>> mandy, thank you. certainly look forward to you guys at the top of the hour with jack bogle. >> i think it goes higher. every central bank in the world has got to be looking at bernanke right now with envy and they're going to weaken their currency. that's the tradeoff. >> hold on. >> sell it to me. >> do you know where real interest rates are right now? positive right now. hawkish than we've anticipated. yesterday we had barry come on and say a lot of the data we're seeing the improvement isn't relevant. it is relevant. gold hasn't worked in the last six months. it's not going to work in 2013. get out. >> first of all, real interest rates will be going more negative in the very near future. the fed is not going to be raising it. >> how do you know that? >> how do i know that? >> negive, where is the snefd. >> the evidence is -- >> how's labor? >> the global economy is weakening. the wholesale inventories number was terrible. >> all right.
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>> i know we have to go but gold is going higher. >> my take away, the data does matta. coming up, are stocks still cheap at these levels? the dean of valuation himself is going to be here to answer your question. [ male announcer ] i've seen incredible things.
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the european markets are closing now. >> and, of course, because we've had the time change here, markets closing an hour later for an american audience. struggling to gain traction on both sides of the atlantic. some markets higher, some lower. individual stock stories driving the session today. it's interesting to see that the minors have done well. chilean miner managed to double the dividend today despite the fact obviously the price of
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copper has been under pressure. those guys have done reasonably well. a sense of calm on both sides of the atlanta ic as we talk about whether the dow can gain for an eighth session in spain. spanish bonds have gained for a tenth session. those yields continue to come down as well as you can see. the crisis is no all over in europe according to the head of the bank. the german central bank coming through with the annual report today and interview with cnbc saying that governments, the president saying that the government around europe need to tackle reform. that is especially true of france. and that guy is doubling the buffers of the bank to now 14 billion euros. scott, what will be interesting is to see where friday takes us, friday is one, of course, when we get the italian parliament meeting. from there we will know whether or not the they can form a coalition or technical government or whether we have to go through more chaos. back to you. >> thank you, simon hobbs with the european close or us.
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it's the big question facing investors right now, are stocks still cheap? let's ask the dean of valuation who is weighing in on the roll of activist on the market. a lot to get to. professor of finance with nyu stern school of business. it's good to have you back. >> thank you. glad to be back. >> really, it is the question that matters most, i think, right now. are stocks still cheap? >> i don't know whether they're cheap but i'm not surprised they're where they are right now because in a sense the markets is in a sweet spot. if you think about the four dimensions in which the market worries, things are looking good. the companies are donating record amounts in cash flow. look at the collective dividends and stock buybacks, it's going to set a record. economic growth getting overheating, low interest rates and risk premium seem to be coming down. having said all of that embedded in that are some worries. one of my biggest worries is economic growth comes back.
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interest rates will go up. no matter what the fed wants to believe that it can do, if economic growth comes back, i think interest rates will go up. that's one worry. the other is we've learned the last five years the last macro crisis is always around the corner. those will be cautious. >> if you look the pe of the s&p, you know, and you compare it now, let's say back to the peak in october 2007, you know, 18.3 times today at 17 times. >> so stocks don't look over priced on any conventional metric. as i said, the one worry for me is those low interest rates remaining not so low because that's the note here because if economic growth comes back i don't know how they can stay at 2%. >> professor, we've seen interest rates go up and markets go up at the same time based upon the economy improving. and you're at -- you will be
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interest rates double from here, as long as they go it in an orderly fashion. you will still be in a very accommodative interest rate scenario. what does your work show in terms of your break point between where interest rates will be -- have to be for the market to sell off and if the term the rate of change? isn't that really the critical question? >> i think that you're absolutely right. it's not where the rates go up or how quickly they go up because i think the scenario you have to worry about is you wake up a month from now and rates are 3 1/2%. i'm not saying it's likely to happen. but there is that possibility that rates could explode out of the box because sometimes when rates start to go up it's almost like you can't stop the no mem up the. you're right, if it happens gradually over time, i think we're okay. if it happens quickly over the few months, this market might be in trouble. >> let's segue to a paper that you recently wrote and certainly a topic we discuss on this show
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on a regular basis, this role of activist investors in the market, whether it's icon or ackman. everyone seems to be more active, more vocal and certainly more public than they've been in the past. are investors benefiting from all that, or not? >> i think that if you think that the status quo is okay, that managers care intently about their stockholders then you don't need activist investors. i don't think that's true. i think a lot of managers put their self interest over the interest of stockholders. this is the only way you can create some balance in the system. you and i are stockholders don't have the weight to throw around to contest managers. you need somebody to come in and contest managers. that's what activist investors do. >> i mean, you make the point here, you know, david ihorn has been very public in his urging of a to fwbetter use their cash. what do you make of what he's done and let's listen to a sound bite of jack welsh on cnbc last week and had an interesting
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comment about the role of activists at large and also about b mr. einhorn. >> we had a problem for years. what are you going to do with all that cash? we're going to do a smart thing, trust us, be with us, stay with us. these guys are after a quick hit. i would low them up. >> professor, is he right? are they after a quick hit? >> well, i mean, i think like every investor that want to make money. whether they're after a quick hit or not i think the record speaks for itself because if you look at the big activists, they often hang in there for years, far longer than the typical institution investor does. the key words that jack used there, was trust us. if you do trust managers, managers are going to win this fight against activist investors. if you don't trust managers and you have good reason not to trust them in some companies, when the activists are going to win out and they should. >> what i find interesting is that you specifically mentioned tim cook who's running apple as
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one of the prime examples for your argument. >> and i think in a sense he illustrates a problem when incumbent managers think they don't have an obligation to explain what they're doing, i not even that i want to apple to return its cash. i want apple to tell investors what they plan to do with the cash. so that's my problem with him cook. it's not that i have a specific action plan for him but that he doesn't feel the need to explain what he wants to do with the future of a company. >> you know, carl icahn has been a busy man. if you track the performance of the company, certainly most recently that he's been involved in once he's gotten there, the stock prices have performed quite well. is that something that we generally see that once these big names get in they rable rouse a little bit and try and shake things up, that you do get a better performance in the actual stock prices? >> i think the sign of a good activist is you target the right
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company. what happens afterwards follows. and i think carl icahn's strength over the years is that he targets companies where stockholders are not very happy with managers. and once you do that, and you rock the boat, good things tend to happen. >> yeah. they certainly seem to for mr. icahn. professor, it's great to have you. >> thank you. >> talk to you soon. you guys want to trade a until provocative comment about tim cook for certain. >> absolutely. so i think the thing with activists here, certain ones like icahn recently he's been dead on. he's been on a hot streak. look at netflix and herbalife. >> and dvr. >> doubled his money. >> he's been hitting it out of the park lately. >> at times the key is with activists, if you have somebody going in looking for a short-term hit or boost to their portfolio i agree with jack welsh, ignore them. if you look at somebody coming in, icahn is willing to take big enough of a position he's controlling the board and may
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take the entire company over. i think he's a different animal in the activist community. >> let's go over to bertha coombs at the market flash desk for a look at what's moving right now. >> thanks, scott. watching cry citi. today it is giving back. on normal volume, stonger volume yesterday. big week for the banks. the basal committee tomorrow meeting. maybe sailing back some of the ri requirements there. you also have market trust data due on friday. that's likely to be a very big event for most of the major banks. back to you. >> bertha, thanks so much. citi is on a pullback here is where you want to buy it. nice up trend. goes with the banks. you want to be long these names. you at the time a pullback, until something changes in the news, they should move higher. >> i own it. i haven't sold it. presplit the stock is billow befive bucks.
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you buy it. >> b.k.? >> i'm more on the camp of start taking profits on some of the financials. they've had a tread mend douse run here. you never go broke taking profits. on a pullback, perhaps. >> what do you make of the optimism that -- you guys are large li positive on the banks. >> i don't think citi has hat a run, by the way. it's below where it was when they split the shares 10-1 three years ago p. what kind of run is that? >> all of the banks are below where they were. they're still like half of where they were. the point is they've all had a run. >> well, it had corrected 10%. caught back the 10% that it corrected. i think the stock is throwing book value in that period of time. it's cleaned up the balance sheet. it should be higher than where it was three years ago. >> birdie in my ear says citi supposed 18% this year alone. >> right. i said it had corrected and it came back. it's a run but where is it running from? >> to defend my friend steve, it
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pulled back 45 down to 39 and rallied from there sense. >> thank you. characteristic charity. >> thank you. let's do the biggest pops and drops now in midday trading. blue mobile. >> they're going to have an online poker game. real money poker game. all of these stocks have gotten a pop from the online web betting. if you're in, just get out of them. >> wasn't that a dan niles play, blue? anybody remember that? i think it was. >> yeah. >> all right, diamond foods drops 8%. >> diamond an mounsed earnings last night. missed by a penny. stre street was expecting six. this is a turn around story a lot of people were giving up here. you need to let the dust settle here in diamonds. >> no run for radio shack? >> no. two drops. one drop for the guy who whispered in our ear about citi and the second drop for radio shack which was downgraded to sale. this is a company that's going
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away. >> seagate, joe? >> mobile apps. cloud infrastructure. hard disk drive storage story. up again. continues to move higher. western digital, as well. coming up, what's the best way to play a strengthening dollar? our players have a list of names. later on the "closing bell," disney's chairman and ceo bob iger live from the new york stock exchange. cannot miss that. acceler-rental.
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good afternoon, everybody. i'm here enjoying a little dry on the rocks getting ready for "power lunch." coming up, the heefd the fbi, now the first lady, michelle obama, may have been hacked. credit data may have been tapped
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into p what has to happen to stop all of this? big changes come to those frequent flier programs, folks. not good ones, you can bet on. and new york city's mike bloomberg plans to ban sugary soda, those plans are falling flat. we're going to go inside the food industry's plan to get americaing hooed on the big three, sugar, salt, and fat. back to scott and the "halftime" crew. >> u.s. dollar moving down today but this after a month of serious dollar dominance. what's driving the dollar and how can you cash in on its next move? let's get the "money in motion" trade with paul richards. paul, welcome back. >> thanks, scott. how are you? >> good. we talked about dollar in a second. i want to talk euro, though, as well. you've been dead on in your calls on where you think the euro is going. so where is it going p from here? back taking 130. can you give us a clue on where you think it's going? because you have been right. >> the reason i've liked it is
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because my money is on draghi. he's he was the guy at 125 that gave us omt. omt has not been used but will be used in my opinion as required. so long as draghi is a backstop, i think euro hold at 129 and has the potential to rally back up. the market keeps getting caught in the market. it's costing them. my money is on draghi here, scott. >> what trade would you make today? >> my money is the pound. euro and yen have depreciate bid 5%. the pound has depreciated for 9%. that's a lot for a big currency. technically i would recommend buying the pound here at $148.50. but a stop on it at $148.50. i think we're going up to 1.51 on the half but technically the pound against the dollar. >> b.k., give me a short? sdli am short pound but i think in the short term this is not a bad trade.
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you had uk of terrible numbers today. ultimately i think the pound goes much lowerer. >> paul, as always. thank you. >> any time. >> all right. see you again soon. paul richards for us. what's the best way to play the strong dollar? you mentioned short the pound. >> short pound, one great way to do it if you want to go to the commodity space look at copper as well. short copper. jjs and etf on that one. i'm short copper futures. >> i think there's an etf that's longer dollar, u,p. i think it's extended here. i wouldn't be jumping on this trade to get longer. if the dollar is going higher and that's your belief you can look at a defensive sector. up next on the "half," not so fast, joe, it's your turn to show us how to manage this losing trade. you tweet it, we trade it.
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let's take a listen to a call you made last month. >> it is a name that i am long, a huge run-up here in february the way i'm playing t. 7364 is the 200-day moving average.
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that's my point of reference stop. stay in there long until it breaks. >> stock is down 9% since you made the call. what's your move? >> got the phone cowl, out of half of position, i wish i wasn't. i believe in the fundamental story. i believe there will be a turnaround in particular when you do the comps. i think it will reaccelerate. i think things are looking better, but i have to risk manage the position. i didn't get out of all of it, i got out of half. the next layer or final half will be at 69. let's hope it doesn't get there. we deliver on trades with four stocks. 3d systems, united states natural gas fund, google, murph, up first. >> 3d systems they use this is printers in my daughter's school. a name so far so fast, and it's had a correction down to where it's trading today. so you can use 30, which is major support, as a get out or a
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stop-loss area, but can you buy this. if this really starts to catch on, you're looking at a double. >> u.s. natural gas fund, p.k.? >> i'm long natural gas. the ung is a tough instrument in the longer run, but in terms of natural gas space, like it is baker hughes rate count, down to the lower level of natural gas rigs since the 1990. the draw last week was bigger than expected, so the fundamentals support at the present time still like it. >> weiss, what do you do with this one? >> there's been so much momentum in racing to get to 1,000. at this point it's likely due for a pause to let the increased expectations subside. i wouldn't sell it, but i wouldn't add money to. finally goldman sachs, buy, sell or hold, long staying long, looking to add to the position,
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just so many out there talking about goldman sachs. we talked before about a higher dollar, the first place you look is u.s. financials. when you look at the metrics for the stress test, they're incredibly apocalyptic. i don't see the boogeyman in the room. i think that's one of the reasons goldman sachs is declining on that fear. >> they came out sort of on the low end. >> they did. >> of the large banks that passed the stress test. >> they did. you know, listen, if the metrics were correct and the capital markets would return in essence to where they were. many more, rather beyond goldman sachs would have a rather large problem. >> earlier in the show, we asked you to weigh in, to decide whether the bull or bear won. we've tallied the results. you said mike murphy, the bull, won or debate on yum. >> i think the harlem
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