Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 13, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
but at xerox we've embraced a new role. working behind the scenes to provide companies with services... like helping hr departments manage benefits and pensions for over 11 million employees. reducing document costs by up to 30%... and processing $421 billion dollars in accounts payables each year. helping thousands of companies simplify how work gets done. how's that for an encore? with xerox, you're ready for real business. let's get let's get the squawk on the tweet for today, and in anticipation of the fall axesy
12:01 pm
s4, samsung has been promoting the device. yesterday, the company staged a flash mob in times square. it's going to unveil the s4 tomorrow night at a law enforcement event here in new york city. we asked you after seeing the video of the flash mob what would be a good tag line for the new samsung device? james writes, join us as we dance on apple's grave. that's terrible. ipo flop write, we may have copied your phones, event preparation, software products, et cetera, but apple never danced in times square. lisa write, samsung, make a statement, it'll make you move. pretty creative stuff, guys, and it does point to the ongoing war between samsung and apple, which is getting even more intense. take a look at jcp here. we've been talking about the stock, yesterday in large part, because rumors that ron johnson would step aside, later they denied. inside 681 jcpenney stores. ron johnson has been a lot on
12:02 pm
the line for that. and then the dow is within striking range of the best point game for any quarter in history. but percentagewise, only the best quarter since q4 of 2011. big show on the "halftime." let's get back to wapner back at the headquarters. carl, thank you. welcome to the "halftime" show. four hours to go until the close. let's look where we stand on wall street. eight in a row for the dow. are we going to get to nine? the dow is down 14 points. we're still on pace for the best quarterly point performance for the dow ever. so we're watching that. still some work to do, as i said. s&p and nasdaq lower as well. here's what we're following -- the tepper call. where does the titan see stocks heading the rest of the year? kate kelly has our "halftime" exclusive. net shares doubling already, up 250% over the next six months. what should you do with the stock? a brother versus brother debate
12:03 pm
is ahead. a shocking shocker. much better than retails report has some saying it's a game changer for the economy. we want to know what it means to the rally and your money. with us trading for the next hour are stephanie link, josh brown, pete, and john. john, what's your read? what does it mean to the market? >> this retail sales number, judge, was spectacular. highest in six month, supposed to be hit by gasoline prices, and instead, we get numbers that are twice as good as anybody expected. now, except for bars and consumer electronics basically, and i'd say that, judge, is because the super bowl has that draw where it pulls all that interest and business into the super bowl week, and then it bleeds out the rest of the month. i think that's the main reason that we didn't get positive numbers there, or perhaps buffalo wild wings and some of the places people went to watch them. but these numbers were spectacular. i thought they were extremely
12:04 pm
telling about where we're likely to go next. >> pete, i want to know what it means for the rally. it was a much better than expected number. surprised an awful lot of people who thought the consumer was done. >> right. >> because of the payroll tax, sequester and whatever else you want to throw on the table. so what do you do right now? >> i think it's supportive of what we continue to see, which is the data continues to be a little bit better. maybe it's not extreme, but it's a little bit better every time we get new data. when you're looking across and wondering which areas of the market do you think moved to the upside, i know stephanie will talk about the discounters, so i won't go there. i like those name, particularly tjx over ross, because of the effects they've got. how about names like whirlpool? you can get involved in the housing side of this thing. the consumer-spending side, some of the rehabs we see going on and international play with latin america. i look at a lot of the name, the earnings growth, power, i see a lot of different areas you can profit from. >> i want to know what stephanie link thinks about what we got today, what it means for the rally, and what you're doing as
12:05 pm
a result of it. >> so the consumer is doing better because housing prices are up 8.3% acore to core logic. jobs are also getting better. if you look at the four-week moving average in the initial claims, you're at cycle lows. so those two factors are the reason why the consumer has more confidence. yeah, so i like tjx because they kind of do well in any environment. and the stock has been flat since the summertime. it's done nothing. they just put up double-digit revenues and earning s growth. i also like nordstrom a lot. people hit the stock a lot because they're spending more on investments for growth, for market-share gains and the stock is up .5% year-to-date. and the tile shop holdings, a name that i like. i think that story can grow 25% comps, 30% earnings. and it's a play on housing. >> josh, you're not seeing it really show up in the market yet today in terms of the broader market performance. we're still a touch negative. what does this number mean for
12:06 pm
how you should play the rally from here forward in the face of people calling for a correction, people saying it's going to happen sooner rather than later, depends on the severity of it. what's your move? >> okay, a couple things. and i don't mean to be the spoiler. the market is not reacting boisterously to this beat because mostly, ahead of the expectations beat, it's as a result of higher gasoline. department stores had sales down 1%, restaurants, bars, down, et cetera. the two key areas of strength other than gasoline were exactly where you think they should be -- homes. so people spending money at places like home depot and lowe's as well as auto sales and auto parts. that's what people are willing to spend money on. the other categories, i can't tell youment we had a huge bounce anywhere. so that's what the market is telling you today. the headline looked great. beneath the surface, neh. >> all right. let's see if the traders have it right. let's bring in steve liesman to grade the trade.
12:07 pm
so josh brown over here, steve, is raining on the retail parade today. >> just a little. >> you look below the headline, it wasn't as great as everybody wants to make it out to be. >> i think the retail parade is sort of cloudy to partly sunny right now. i don't think it's full-blown sun right now. i think josh has some points, and we can see it -- >> cloudy with a little bit of sun or sunny with a little bit of clouds? it depends on how you want to look at it. >> i always caution people, like, don't ask from the data, you know, what it is it can't provide. so what is the trade here that you're after? let me just show you the retail details, because i think there's a little bit for everybody in there. what you see is that gas was up 5%, exactly, as josh said. nonstore retailers, that s thaty much your internet shopping, that's a sign people looking for discounts. groceries up 0.7% while restaurants were down. that tells us people stopped eating out, maybe eating at home a little bit.
12:08 pm
furniture down, department stores down. that could all be what josh is talking about, which is the effect of the payroll tax cut. i was a little more nervous than i was. what happened, though, i think was that the overall number, scott, is driven by high-end and medium to high-end purchases. people over $100,000, i think, in income, were not affected by this number. so just getting back to where i started, i think it creates very specific trades. i think it makes you nervous about the low end of retail right now. until incomes and jobs -- >> steve, yound a agree. >> yeah. >> i don't know if you saw it flashed on the screen while i was speaking, my retail pick was michael coors. i don't think the michael koors customer is affected. i think that's a high-end luxury customer. >> stephanie gave me a name before we started. who did you like before on the -- on the high-end retail? >> nordstrom. >> right. >> and they posted 7% comps last year, 2012, the third-straight year above 7%. >> and at 100,000, around
12:09 pm
100,000, the payroll cut has less of an impact, because remember, it's cut off at that in terms of the payroll tax increase has an effect. >> it sounds like you may be in a disagreement the way that doc is reading the market, right? doc, you were about as glowing as you could be. >> elle with, i was pleased did. >> liesman says not so fast. >> because, like i say, what we got in january, of course, is people going in, exchanging gifts and buying some of the leftover stuff. that spikes up the january number a little bit. and yet this number was very strong. like i say, about 2x. look at goodyear, gt. goodyear, we've got unusual activity in that one today, you look at how the autos did and you're not as surprised as -- >> they're buying -- 1% up in autos is a good number. >> yeah. it's a good number. we know if you fill up the tank, it's costing you more money. again, if the average american buys 500 gallons of gasoline a year, which is the average, then $1 increase in gasoline is $500
12:10 pm
over the course of the year. it's not a major impact. >> let's keep liesman here and let's bring in our next guest who put out a very provocative note this morning saying the economy is reaching an inflection point. it is the talk of the street today. avoidance rhine hart, morgan stanley's chief economist. he joins us live from new york city. vince, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> so it's reaching an inflection point. which way is it going? it seems to me the data would say it's going up. >> it's going up, but the inflection point is midyear. i'm on steve's camp that i do see some clouds in the very near term. we do have to get past the fiscal constriction. gasoline prices are hurting particularly low-end consumers. but the good news is politicians aren't going to do much more harm. they're going to probably do much good either and we'll see the resilience of a market economy show through. >> gas prices are coming down. the market doesn't seem to be
12:11 pm
concerned about what's happening in washington, almost relaying the message that you're irrelevant because we're going to new highs. >> i think politicians are in the process of getting -- getting out of the way. our forecast doesn't have any harmony breaking out suddenly and there's a grand bargain, nor does it have a government shutdown or the wheels falling off on the process. if politicians just stay out of the way, what we'll see is that the lingering effects of the financial crisis are receding. it was a big level adjustment to demand and supply, but once you get the level adjustment done with, it's no longer a drag on growth. that's what happens in 2013. that's why we get an inflection point. >> vince, it's josh brown. i would assume that most morgan stanley clients would be interested to know whether or not you and adam parker had lunch occasionally, or if either one of you will ever be able to persuade the other that this economic up tick is real, or that the bear case for equities remains intact. how is that going to shake out?
12:12 pm
>> hey, i've got the office next to adam. we talk all the time. and i think, you know, he did. >> what's he saying, talk to the hand? i mean, you know -- you sound a lot more positive than he's certainly been over the past 13, 14 months. >> look, i think in retrospect we got more kick in the equity market from quantitative easing. the kick coming forward is from a better view on the macroeconomy. >> steve? >> well, what i think, by the way be we didn't talk about this with the traders, is that the market might assess this out ahead of time. they may have been following the optimistic data and seen -- they may have been really on this number, looking for 1% growth. vince, the main issue i think right now is sequester. you can't take money out of the economy the way we're doing and it not have an effect. so two questions. i see a lot of economists right now bumping up their forecasts to near 3%. deutsche bank just before you
12:13 pm
came on, did three. microadviser at two. >> bill gross did three on friday. >> isn't he the guy calling for the end of the world? we'll talk about that in a second. but where are you, vince, on the issue of growth in the first quarter? and how does the sequester work its way through the economy? >> the sequester's really important. we think that right now we're in the middle of three quarters where we only average a little bit more than 1% growth. stand still last quarter last year and constriction the first half. then we go up to around 2 3/4%. so we're still sub-2% for the year as a whole. >> this is a major deal, vince. if you are right, i don't understand why these guys aren't sweating. what he's saying is he's looking for prints over the fourth quarter, first quarter, and second quarter, vince, tell me if i have this right, that just will average 1%. you guys have the stomach to be
12:14 pm
long this market with 1% gdp? >> my thing is for short term. if you look at the options market, we talk about the data all a the time, when we look at where people have moved, people have moved out of stocks, moving into options. the reason they're doing so, and if you look what they're trading now, steve, it's the weeklies. we're seeing weeklies in very short term because people don't have enough clarity right now on the markets. >> hey, vince, thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. >> vince rhine hart. >> i don't think he's right about that. i think it's a 2%, 3% number for the first quarter and growth may be stronger. >> does that say cyclicals are in? industrials? >> yeah, absolutely. >> techs? >> you're going -- if he's right, you'll get an expanded multiple and possibly, for god's sake, top-line growth. >> all right, steve, thank you. let's remind you, as well, steve will interview the new treasury secretary. 4:15 eastern on the closing bell tomorrow. certainly looking forward to steve's big interview there.
12:15 pm
and i know all of you are as well. coming up on the "half," an exclusive report from kate kelly on david tepper and his outlook for stocks. and with the s&p trying to hit new highs, is now the time to get in? rebecca reveals her strategy when "the half" continues. how do traders using technical analysis streamline their process? at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts with leading-edge analysis tools from recognia so you can quickly spot key trends and possible entry and exit points. we like this idea so much that we've applied for a patent. i'm colin beck of fidelity investments. our integrated technical analysis is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
12:16 pm
arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. to deposit checks from anywhere. [ wind howling ]
12:17 pm
easier than actually going to the bank. mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank. makes it easy for anne to manage her finances when she's on the go. even when she's not going anywhere. citibank for ipad. easier banking. standard at citibank.
12:18 pm
welcome back. it's always big news when david tepper makes a call on the markets, so let's bring in kate kelly with exclusive information on where the hedge fund titan thinks stocks could go. kate, we've been waiting for this. >> well, i'm looking forward to telling you about it, scott. i'm told by someone familiar with his thinking that tepper remains extremely bullish on the markets and thinks the s&p could see a rise of 20% or more by the end of this year. the market seems largely comfortable with the current picture both in europe and in congress, he believes. and unless there's an unexpected leg down in the european economy, tepper doesn't see much more than short-term volatility getting in the way of these equity markets right now. if anything, i'm told, he is surprised that the year-to-date hasn't actually been stronger. the key to tepper's outlook, i'm told, is the real economy looks good. he's expected gdp growth to be 2% for the current quarter and sees cash on the sidelines. moreover, he does not believe the expected rotation of institutional assets such as pension fund assets from fixed income into stocks has yet happened. so that tells you there could be
12:19 pm
a lot more money to put to work. if the economy picks up further, tepper believes we'll see even more than a 20% in the s&p for the end of 2013. appaloosa is having a very strong march from what i'm told after a strong january. up more than 6%, for example, in the palomino fund, and a flat february. year-to-date, the firl is up more than 10% in its flagship fund through about yesterday. some pockets of strength for tepper have come from outside of the u.s., as well, including the nikkei, which just ended its longest winning streak since at least 1963. it could be even longer, scott, except that that's when our records go back, as well as other japanese investments. and another highlight for appaloosa has been the airline stocks. he's long continental united, delta, u.s. airways, all of which have had strong performances this year. i went through this with tepper yesterday, scott, but he was reluctant to speak about the these his in too much detail, saying we are still constructive on the market. hopefully, we'll get more detail after the quarter ends. >> but constructive tells a
12:20 pm
story of his train of thought, at least at the current time, given where we are in the markets, where he thinks we could go. kate, how much do you think the great rotation factors into where he thinks we could ultimately get to? right, the cash has been coming largely off the sidelines into the market. if it starts rotating out of bonds and into stocks, that could give it the little extra gus toe that it might need. >> that's right, scott. there are two factors here. one is the cash on the sidelines which apparently is an important part of his these his. and i think we have been hear, at least anecdotally coming in. but something that could give them another leg up, and i've been hearing this from other investor, what if we see the money finally coming out of fixed-incomment investments? merrill lirchl has done good research on that. there's an indication that people are starting to turn toward equities. would think they should with the s&p up 9%. at the same time, though, there's much more room for that money to rotate out and into a
12:21 pm
asset class. when it happens, we could see some buoyance. >> yeah, we saw the s&p negative as we came on the air go positive. it's not a huge move obviously, but nonetheless moving into positive territory, perhaps on the bullish comments related to what david tepper apparently thinks about where we could go. the s&p 500 is now up half a point after being negative again. take a look at the dow here as well we've had eight-straight days trying to work on a ninth. it is looking, the market that is, the dow, for its best performance from a point perspective in a single quarter. a couple weeks to go, we know that more points to go to reach that level. but nonetheless, it's been an obviously good run for stocks, and, david tepper thinks that it could be an even bigger run ahead. so he thinks the market's going higher from here. our next guest agrees saying now is the time to get into stocks and out of bonds. rebecca patterson is with
12:22 pm
bessemer trust. let me get your reaction to what you hear that tepper's bullish, and then some of your thoughts as well. >> yeah, i generally agree with what he was saying. i don't know if we'll see the 20% rally. >> 20% for the year. and we're up 10 thus far. >> yeah, yeah, it's not impossible. but i'm certainly constructive, and i would agree that while we aren't seeing a lot of evidence yet of bonds into stocks, we are seeing cash into stocks. and just from the investors i'm talking to on a day-to-day basis, they're finally saying, "hmm, okay, you know, the politics, we won't have the march political cliff risk anymore. the sequester is pushed back. the continuing resolution looks likely to be pushed back. the economy is doing better despite payroll tax increases. and importantly, the leading indicators, whether we're talking about confidence, new orders, those things are also improving. so i don't think it's all baked in. >> what gets the rotation of any magnitude from bonds into stocks, which really could accelerate things? >> capital losses on your bonds.
12:23 pm
you know, right now at bessemer, we have a maximum underweight to government debt. so we're as low as we'd go based on our strategic guidelines. but i think when you get those pension funds, those institutional investors, and even some retail investors actually saying, gosh, for the last 25 years, bonds have been a great place to be, they're not anymore. that's when i think we see that moving. i don't know if we're there yet. >> if you put money into equities, where do you want to be? >> we're trimming some of our high-yield exposure now. we started doing that in january. we're taking an additional step right now and adding further to our equity exposure. we're focusing on large-cap stocks. we like small and midcap. we've been overweight there already. >> and they've done well, right? record highs for the russell and so on. >> right. at this point, with valuation, we think that large cap makes more sense. and within large cap, one area we're kind of shopping around is energy. it's been very unloved for the last couple of months. oil prices have come down quite a bit, which is good for the consumer. we aren't buying yet, but that's something we're looking at,
12:24 pm
better valuations, and maybe it's a catch-up. >> what about business spending in cap ex. we've seen that improve. we saw it in the fourth-quarter gdp numbers. do you think that will accelerate throughout this year and, therefore, provide upside to earnings? >> i think that's a great wild card. i think you're right. we have started to see orders for non -- for duable goods, for nonaircraft, capital goods orders are starting to pick up. some of the business-confidence surveys are starting to pick up and all of those things suggest that maybe we timely start seeing that huge mountain of cash on corporate balance sheets come down a little bit. i think that would definitely add some momentum to the economy. and keep in mind, the consumer, getting through payroll tax increases. if house prices are going up, stock market's going up, that's going to help the consumer get through this. >> rebecca, great to see you. thank you so much for coming in. >> inch that is. >> rebecca patterson from bessemer trust. guy, give me a quick trade, right? >> i wouldn't wait on the energy. i'd pull the trigger. that's a 12 multiple on last year's earnings. that's actually the cheapest
12:25 pm
sector on that basis in the whole s&p. >> -- soft today. you buy them on weakness, because even though they've made a big surge, scott, midcontinent, they go higher. >> best large-cap u.s. company you would buy the stock of today is what? >> emc. it's going to go a lot higher. i think it's going through $30 a share. coming up on the half, transports, financial techs, plays on names making noise in the top three trades. crude losing today, so we're headed for the futures pits to see how the smart money is betting on black gold. with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options...
12:26 pm
evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers.
12:27 pm
at farmers, we make you smarter about insurance. because what you don't know can hurt you. what if you didn't know that boxes by the curb... make you a target for thieves? or that dog bites account for a third of all home liability claims? what if you didn't know that one in seven drivers is uninsured? and that grease fires have to be smothered? the more you know, the better you can plan for whats ahead. get smarter about your insurance. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum ♪
12:28 pm
all right, all right, let's do our top three trades as we get set to make the turn on the "half." faa approving boeing's plan to solve its battery problem. boeing now allowed to start testing that fix, and stephanie link, amazing how this stock has held up through the entire thing. it's up today. >> i think a lot of the reason why it's held up and actually
12:29 pm
rallied is people knew they were going to find some sort of a fix for this battery problem. and the stock really has lagged. up until this year. last year, it was only up about 3% for the year. so you're playing catch-up versus all the other aerospace plays which are up close to their highs. i still think you want to own kind of the supply companies, because there's more leverage there. >> yeah. >> so we're still sticking with united technologies and pcp. >> josh, what's behind the fortress move? what do you see? >> this is fascinating. this stock's built a huge base for the last four years. this morning, goldman came out, said they're getting no credit for the business in the pe business and no credit for the potential for performance fees on the hedge fund they run. so this one looks really good. >> doc, let's go to you on samsung and apple, right? samsung's about to come out with its new galaxy, well-known the competition between the two, not so much from a marketing standpoint. and samsung spending an awful lot of money to get its name and its products out there. it's certainly been showing up
12:30 pm
in how the stock's done. >> yeah, spent about $100 million more in advertising than apple did. and apple used to outspend everybody, like 3 to 1 or 20 to 1 versus sony and some of the others when they were trying to be in this space. now, samsung is outspending them. they've got great platform. but the problem for samsung may be what's their next item? i mean, what are they going to -- >> what do you mean? the problem for apple. >> no, i mean the problem for samsung. is exactly what -- >> a freudian slip there? >> no, it's what apple's problem was. in other words, you can't make incremental changes in that samsung galaxy, the s3 to the s4. if it's just incremental, i don't know if that's enough to move the needle for them. >> pete, let's trade this. that's the big issue on the table is that samsung has started to eat apple's lunch, that it's innovating better than apple is. what do you do? >> i don't agree with that, but i think the problem is -- >> don't the facts bear that out? >> to a degree. however, as we've said for a long time on the show, and i
12:31 pm
continue to pound the table every day, and i see people talking about generational buys and this buy and that buy. this is a second-half story. they will start to be in a better competition, and innovative. but they've got to get the price right as far as the iphone -- >> are they coming out with a new phone sometime -- >> a lower-priced phone, absolutely. that's what we're going to be seeing is the lower-priced phone in the second half and carrier deals in the asian markets that have been a huge problem for them going forward. >> the play between samsung and apple has and will continue to be qualcomm. it's so obvious to me. qualcomm is returning massive amounts of cash to shareholders, they're investing in r&d at the same time. shipments are flying out the door. they win no matter which one. >> but that's not necessarily just an apple play. qualcomm is qualcomm. qualcomm is winning in every direction -- >> well, it's -- >> and technically, let me explain something,g, ts is a company that's grown earnings but has not seen the share price appreciation commensurate with what they deserve. i think at a certain point this thing gets above 70.
12:32 pm
>> and samsung should get credit for the format. they're a bigger-format phone, and people like that, because computer not a phone. when apple, with their next generation does that, watch what happens. >> all right. you know what time it is. it's 12:30 on the east coast. that means markets around the globe are closing. simon hobbs wraps up the overseas action. simon? >> we haven't got a new pope yet but a new closing in europe and it's generally lower. the good news out of europe is ireland successfully launched 12 euros of bonds, so it's getting back on its feet, possibly to stand on its own unaided in the future. let me draw your attention to the fact that italy on the bottom right-hand side has fallen to a greater extent than the rest of europe today. we had a very weak -- let me rephrase that. we had a weakish bond auction at the short end coming out of italy today. in the wake of the elections, look at the degree to which those bond yields have risen. of course, friday, at the short end, friday absolutely key, when
12:33 pm
we get that first meeting of the new parliament in italy, and then we can talk about whether or not they can form a government. so the yields have been rising there. the bigger italian industrial names have fallen today. a utility struggling under over 40 billion of euros of debt. so italy hasn't had a great day. the real big message coming out of europe at the moment is the degree to which the division between europe and america. today, the retail sales figure very good in the united states. deutsche bank talking about 3% annualized growth. whereas europe is mired in recession. that's the real big story coming out. so whilst you see -- and we're looking back here -- this is a six-month chart, but i want to show you from the beginning of the year, in essence what you have is you have the dow moving to higher levels and the european stock markets mired in -- the bonds are also moving in opposite directions, but i'll hand it back to you, scott. >> so much simon hobbs for us there. let's get down to washington
12:34 pm
where amman is catching up with the ceos meeting with the president today regarding cyber security. >> reporter: we already told you that jaime diamond of jpmorgan will be attending this white house situation room meeting with president obama today. now, we've gotten a list here of a host of big, big name ceos participating in that meeting, including tim cook of apple, rex tillerson of exxon mobil. and a long list of others, about a dozen or more ceos here participating in this meeting. and obviously, the setting of the white house situation room very dramatic, sort of ratchets up the seriousness of the conversation that those ceoss will be having about cyber security with president barack obama today. >> all right, ayman down in the d.c. bureau. oil was up earlier but now it's lost all of the gains on the day. for more, let's go to futures now, the host, jackie deangeles.
12:35 pm
jackie? >> that's right. crude turned around after enjoying half a percent of gains today. richard makes sense of this for us. what's driving oil today? >> i think the dollar puts the skids on all commodities, including oil. but really, jackie, this market was bouncing off a deeply oversold territory. the market from february to the first week of march dropped 10%. the rsi fires a buy signal, and then you get better numbers from the equity market and abroad, and that scoots the market up. this is a capitulative bounce, we go to around 94 where i'm looking to get short. >> hey, jim, crude running into technical resistance here? is that what you would call that? >> yeah, today's high around that 93.40 level, some old highs from about a week or so ago. i think there was resistance there, too. this is a story about a clash of a micro story and macro story. you can look at the supply all you want, but crude is trying
12:36 pm
inverse relationship to the dollar. the dollar is pushing crude lower. it tests that 90 level again sometime soon. >> you both are pointing to the dollar. we'll be watching it. that's what these guys think about crude. is crude's next stop $90 or a hundred? tell us what you think. log onto futuresnow.cnbc.com. back to you. >> thanks so much. disagreement over where the stocks go from here, a brother versus brother smackdown when "the half" continues. ♪
12:37 pm
[ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪
12:38 pm
12:39 pm
next next flix, it's the best performer in the s&p 500 this year. it's doubled, just about there. shares are higher again today after announcing a deal with facebook. here's the question.
12:40 pm
has the stock run too far too fast? let's debate it now, brother versus brother style. pete's the bull, doc the bear. 1:30 on the clock. pete, make your case. >> john, it's probably run a little faster than i would like it, especially after the news today. when i look at the stock, it goes over $200 a share, and reed hastings has learn the his lesson. years ago he had issues when he tried to raise the prices. he backtracked off that and went for the conat the present time deals and now the original content deals. and when you look at what he's doing with the streaming business, the growth from 2011 to '12, i think that's going to grow just unbelievable pace. and then just add the international flavor for it, as well. the streaming internationally, 6 million right now. i think that number's going to go absolutely through the roof. >> the first part you mentioned about content. that's one of the problems here, because quite frankly, you know, 4.5 million an episode for house of cards, it's a great show, but overpaying. number two, streaming. look at who else they're competing against.
12:41 pm
red box and verizon together with 140 million. verizon subscribers. and then look at hulu and hulu plus, disney fox and comcast. comcast has 22 million people that pay them money every month to be subscribers. 17 million that pay for high-speed internet. so those are real people with real money. and they're in the content business and the delivery business. i think that's tough competit n competition. i agree with you, but it's run too pfaff -- >> your brother is yelling at you. >> yeah, it seems like he is yelling at me. it's just going to go a lot higher, john. when you look at latin america, the growth of the middle class and the fact that as they get that -- the advancement as far as their mobile and everything else that they're going to be downloading to their iphones, their ipads, this thing is going higher. >> let's go to the desk to find out who won the debate. josh brown? who made the more compelling argument. >> be smart, josh. >> i've never -- i've never liked the stock, but i got to say that pete did a -- did a
12:42 pm
really solid job. and you can't be short with this thing. it seems every inflection point, just when i think the momentum has run out, they come out with a new deal. it's like they're timing it based on share price. it's eerie. i'd go with pete. >> send us a tweet @cnbcmoney. we'll have the results at the end of the show. coming up on the half, what's the big money investing in now? dr. j with the details of a new billion-dollar bet. and the midcap names, the rally has left behind. intrepid's mark travis is going to be just that with more than $1 billion under management. he'll tell you which stocks are readily to rally. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
12:43 pm
omnipotent of opportunity. you know how to mix business... with business. and you...rent from national. because only national letu choose any car in the aisle.
12:44 pm
full-size and youor above.rom national. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. [ man yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 but there is one source with a wealth of etf knowledge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 introducing schwab etf onesource™. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it's one source with the most commission-free etfs. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 one source with etfs from leading providers tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and extensive coverage of major asset classes... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all brought to you by one firm tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with comprehensive education, tools and personal guidance tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you find etfs that may be right for you. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 schwab etf onesource-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 for the most tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 commission-free etfs, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you only need one source and one place. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 start trading commission-free with schwab etf onesource. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call, click or visit today.
12:45 pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 investors should carefully consider tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 information contained in the prospectus, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 including investment objectives, risks, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 charges, and expenses. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you can request a prospectus by calling schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at 800-435-4000. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 please read the prospectus carefully before investing. you you know, i like to keep a list of korean leaders like kim jong-un on my screen just in case dennis rodman walks by. coming up today on "power lunch," one of the biggest catalysts -- what is that noise -- for the housing crash is back. we'll tell you what it is. how do you stop a hacker? one of the country's top sources on cyber security is going to tell you how. and apparently, they're friends for life. we'll talk to the man behind the world's most bizarre friendship.
12:46 pm
that was your hint. all that and more today on "power lunch." back to you, scottie. >> ty, thank you so much. we'll see you at the top of the hour. we mentioned after our conversation with kate kelly, who was reporting that david tepper remains bullish, the stock market thinks we could get a 20% return this year, sure, we've already had ten. but he sees 20, possibly even higher, if some things fall into place. the markets started to rise at that moment. now, the s&p is up a little shy of 3 points. remember, sort of lost in the dow's record run, and eight straight days the dow's been up, the s&p is working on getting to its all-time closing high as well. 1,576 is the number to keep in mind. as you look and watch the charts, remember 1,576 would be the highest close for the s&p 500. so maybe we're 20 points or so away, but the market's certainly turning around. negative when we came on the air, going positive on the comes from kate regarding david tepper and moving perhaps a little
12:47 pm
stronger, albeit a little bit. but nonetheless you get the story. >> josh has a look at what's moving within the market. josh, what are you seeing? >> herbalife in the red today, moving on news that you broke last night, scott. the national consumers league urging the ftc to investigate herbalife as a potential pyramid scheme. bill ackman saying they're pleased by the news, a thorough investigation, they say, will reveal herbalife to be a pyramid scheme that's harmed millions of consumers. for its part, herbalife firing back, telling the journal, if anything, pershing square should be investigated by the appropriate authorities. scott, back to you. >> all right, josh, thanks. that's an interesting response from the company, which, by the way, you guys, obviously knows by now that carl icahn is on the side of the trade. icahn buying 3,000 more shares. so, you know, he's on that side, ackman is on the other side. now the national consumer lea e league, don't know much about them, but they write a letter to
12:48 pm
the ftc saying you guys should investigate this thing for a pyramid scheme. what do you make of the development here as you look at what the stock is doing? it's down another 2% today. >> yeah, i'm managing retirement portfolios, so i'm a million miles away. but this is getting more fascinating by the day. i guess i enjoy watching it more than trading it. >> anybody have an interest at this point of getting into the stock? you guys are willing to take flyers at a certain time on some stocks. you've done it on the past in some controversial and provocative names. anybody? >> this one gets cheap -- sorry. >> well, it could get cheap, but it's not trading on fundamentals. this company is -- >> it's more fun to watch. >> this company has done a good jobs in you look at the earnings, double digits. margins are expanding. cash flows. but it's not trading on that. so it's hard as an investor to be putting money that that. >> doc, what do you mean by that, when it gets cheap? what's cheap to you? >> cheap was 26. when they snatched it down from, you know, 46 to $50 level, when this first kicked off with that
12:49 pm
massive short at -- announced at the conference back in december, that's when it got oversold. when it broke through 30, it was oversold. even carl icahn thought down at those levels and began accumulating a position, apparently. now with it here at 40, it feels a lot like fair valued around there given that these two titans are fighting over it. so falls $5 i'd be a buyer. rises $5 i'd be a seller. small and midcap companies are performing the market. if you're looking to play catch-up in these names, you're in luck. mark travis runs the capital fund that specializes in finding smaller companies trading on the cheap. welcome to "half," mark. good to see you again. >> thank you, scott. >> the runs have been well documented. we've been talking about the russell and some midcap names that are hitting all-time highs. what makes you think there's much more room to go here? >> well, i don't know, scott. 1% a week is a hard pace to maintain for 52 weeks.
12:50 pm
>> i know. >> i think -- i think david tepper could probably sell out of his positions and buy an intermediate corporate junk bond and compound out at 20 from here. so, you know, i think for us, being valuation-sensitive investors at intrepid capital funds, it's very hard, i would say, to find things that people hate. but i found a few, and we think they're exceptionally cheap equity securities. the first one is, you mentioned cyber security, and it's certainly on the cover of the "wall street" this morning, but it's a defense contractor, mantech. ticker m.a.t. they do intranet security for the department of defense. there's worries about sequestration, as to how that affects their business. but you have a business at less than five times its enterprise value at pretax cash flow. you get paid 3%-plus dividend to wait. and we have it valued at, you know, higher than where it
12:51 pm
trades today in the mid-20s. >> you also like some other names? new field exploration, bill barrett corporation. i mean, these are names we don't talk about on an everyday -- or, frankly, every week or monthly basis. >> well, scott, we dig around and find things, like i said, that people aren't looking at. as i say, i have a defense contractor squeeze between two emp companies and a silver miner. so the e & p companies, bill barrett, about a million-dollar market cap, heavily shorted. they've had to sell off assets to fund the cap ex. ceo's resigned, fred barrett, here in the last couple of months, so that's shaking up the market. if you look at the enterprise value, to proven reserve, about $1.85, $1.90, which is awfully cheap for somebody that'd like to have natural gas and thinks at some point that gas will be higher than it trades today in the 365 range. the same with new fields, a
12:52 pm
bigger market cap. 3-2, 3-5, i can't recall exactly. selling off the properties in china properties in china and malaysia to define their domestic exploration. about $1.85 for proven reserve. i think a way for a major to acquire a quality asset. in the last week or so, barry petroleum was acquired. i think in the case of newfield you might get as high as the low 40s from a $25 share price or so today. the last one, which is most interesting particularly in light of the fact that central bankers continue to print money around the world. that's only in a trail of tears based on history. i think it's interesting to have a hedge. and this would be one. the challenge for american silver is they mine in places that are less than friendly.
12:53 pm
peru, bolivia, argentina. most productive mines are in mexico and they have the lowest cost for mining there. it's a $2.5 billion enterprise value. about $500 million in cash, almost no debt. pretty high margins, in the high 20s. and you get paid to wait. >> i got ya. mark, i got to run. appreciate it so much. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. mark travis. you asked for it on twitter and we're going to deliver on four trades on four stocks. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading.
12:54 pm
their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company."
12:55 pm
12:56 pm
>> when you ask, we deliver with trades. discover financial, emc and pepsi. >> second largest sink producer. but these guys make most of their money from menthol and the fact that young people are so drawn to menthol, that's a problem. there is going to be a ruling. this is the one i stay away from. >> discover financial? >> this is one of the best performing names since the crisis. it's had a pause. now it looks like the next leg up is starting. they have announced that they will get into the home equity home business. 80% of discover card holders own a home this could be a huge market for them. i like the name.
12:57 pm
>> pete called out emc. >> we started buying this last week and we went overweight technology from underweight. you will see the second half of the year spending begin to improve. data storage is growing faster than it spending. you will take market share. expectations are low. and they have given out guidance for the year. i think actually that might be beaten. $6 billion in cash as well. >> and the strategy day today? the ownership feeds into this. >> finally, i'm going to give you pepsi. >> i do own this. i have owned it for a long time. i like the diversity of the fact that they are in the snack food and beverage business.
12:58 pm
>> we tally the results and you said that john, the bear. >> there we go. >> congratulations. >> i was lucky. that facebook news would have been tomorrow instead of today, pete might be walking. >> thanksgiving invitation may not be coming but that's the price. >> final trades when we come back. we will go around the horn. the american dream is of a better future, a confident retirement. those dreams have taken a beating lately.
12:59 pm
but no way we're going to let them die. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help keep your dreams alive like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. and that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪ thattoday is gonna be ants more important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers. but at xerox we've embraced a new role. working behind the scenes

70 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on