tv Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo CNBC March 25, 2013 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
because of something -- a smaller situation as opposed to one of the bigger situations. >> which is kind of surprising because for so long -- i mean, we've had a great quarter. earnings were pretty solid. then in the end the fedex and cats of the world spoiled the party a little bit. i find it interesting to your point something like cyprus can trump what has been a fairly decent economic string of reports and fairly decent earnings reports with a couple of exceptions. >> yeah. you know, like i said, it's a spineless market. if there was some spine and backbone to it, this would not have been that effective. it would not have done as much damage. >> what do you expect to happen this week? the talk is cyprus banks aren't going to open tomorrow. maybe it'll wait till thursday. that's an issue. >> it's a short week. >> holiday week anyway. >> it's a short week. >> what do you expect to happen here? >> i don't think you'll see much of anything. any kind of news, good or bad, is going to have a very adverse effect on the market. i think because of the holiday week. any time you see a holiday week, there's good news or bad news, it usually either has a much more impactful result than the market. it causes some volatile -- we'll
probably see -- we'll continue to see volatility. you know, i mean, for traders, it's good. >> sue's going off to get ready for the next hour which will start momentarily. harry dent is coming on in a little bit. still a super bear. he still feels we could see 3,300 on the dow in the next couple of years. >> oh, please. you know what? i'd love to sit down on the panel with him and give him reasons why -- >> what's the other side of that trade? >> the other side -- >> why wouldn't that happen? >> why wouldn't it? the economy is starting to improve. we're still seeing -- you know, you're talking two years out. i think the market's going to be at 17,000 in two years. i'm talking the opposite direction. i'm not a super, super bull. but in two years, i definitely think we're going to see, you know, lower unemployment. >> 3,300 down here. 17,000 up. >> that's a huge -- >> who's right? huh? >> i am. >> there you -- thank you, peter. >> thank you. >> see you later. heading toward the close. a day very much dictated by
events overseas. the bailout of the cyprus banks seem to be a catalyst to the upside this morning. until the dutch finance minister had his say. but we are finishing well off the lows of the session. the dow was down 117 at the low of the day. and we're down about 50 right now. stay tuned. super bear harry dent is joining us on the second hour of "the closing bell." welcome to "the closing bell," i'm sue herera in for maria bartiromo. bill will join me in a moment. not a great finish to the first trading day of the week. it started out so promising on news of a bailout agreement for cyprus. however, here's how we're closing the day on wall street after a big swing. we were down as much as 117 points. dow jones industrial average looks like it will settle down about 61 points into the red. the nasdaq off about five
points. and the s&p, which came within a hair's breadth, one point of the new all-time closing high finishing down nine points on the trading session. so a one day blip or the start of a long awaited pullback? we're going to talk about that with a great group of people. >> let's do that right now. he said. we've got back with us again dani hughes. david kelly from jpmorgan funds. todd salimoni. our own rick santelli. allen delvez will join us in a moment. dani, we talked an hour ago. we were getting clarification from the dutch finance minister. maybe the cyprus bailout is not a template for future bailouts. market came back a bit. but we're still weak today. >> we're still weak today. we're still weak today. there's still people in line in cyprus waiting to take their money out of the bank. you can rest assured about that. i think one thing that we've
seen over the last couple of weeks is when we fall off about 100 points, 100 and change, the next day the market comes back. there have been so many people on cnbc and elsewhere, a lot of clients of ours, that are waiting for that pullback. nobody really wants to wait for that huge pullback of 400, 500 points. they're saying, 100 points, i might take that. i expect to see that a little bit tomorrow. money coming into this weakness today. >> david kelly, you know, the word "template" never took on so much importance as it did today. weigh in on that controversy. and put cyprus in perspective for us in terms of the rest of europe and the market. >> well, first of all, cyprus should not have been that difficult to solve. this problem was really too small to fail. we only needed to come up with 6 billion euros to deal with the problem. but i think the problem coming out of europe is they're capable of coming up with a financial fix. but they're not capable of dealing with an economic mess. this simple -- this simple program for cyprus is going to
leave the country destitute. when you think about the people of cyprus, the people of italy, the people of ireland, portugal, spain, if the populations in these countries feel that european leaders are not dealing with their problems, it's going to make them more and more move away from the european project. i think europe really isn't solving its long-term problems. between continued european problems and, ok, these various speeches from fed officials reinforcing the idea that rates aren't going to go higher, i think that's really what's holding back the equity market right now. >> allen valdez, how do you read the tone of this market today when we started out this morning pretty good gains, mirroring what was going on in asia overnight, in europe, responding to the cypriot bailout. but that one comment from the dutch finance minister really took the wind out of the sails and they never really recovered tooed. what do you make -- i know you're skeptical of this market at these levels anyway. is this just an excuse to sell or was that a legitimate reason to sell in this market? >> i think that that was a legitimate reason. >> allen valdez.
>> i think that was a legitimate reason to sell that market this morning when we came out with that statement. i think that was a legitimate reason to sell. we're coming into earnings season this week it basically starts. euro gets a lot weaker, our dollar gets a lot stronger, that's going to hurt our earnings. a real reason to sell the market. in the long run i still believe as long as the feds are infusing the market with 85 billion a month, you'll be happier -- >> todd, do you agree? given the backdrop of the volatility risk and headline risk that still seems to be ahead of us? >> i think -- i think when you're talking five, six, seven, eight months down the road i think it's a higher market. as far as price action today, you know, this is the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. not a major surprise. here we are, s&p back to the 2 thousand hig 2000 highs, 2007 highs. hitting what technicians call a resistance level. then you have those perceived
negative comments come in from the dutch finance minister. you had the selloff. let's not forget we just had vix expiration of options last week. we're on the heels six days removed from regular expiration. there's a lot of people looking to hedge and looking for those cheap hedges. with the vix perceptively low, it is a good time to -- vix call volume was over 600,000 contracts as of 3:00 p.m. today which was pretty high. >> rick santelli, what do you make of that? lately the fear factor has been coming back into this market even as the market was continuing higher. how do you read the sentiment or mood of this market right now? >> you know, after reading ben bernanke's speech in london, there's no way he's going to be slowing down. so whether you like it or you don't like it, all the issues that help stocks move higher in addition to some better economic news as well, i think are in place. so it's a one day blip. they're going to probably go after the s&p highs, whether
it's tomorrow, next week or in two weeks. but they call it a canary in the coal mine. they don't say a rhino in the coal mine. that dutch treat today was an honest comment. we can have him pull it back, have somebody in his office say he didn't mean it. actions speak louder than words. i think the issues in europe aren't going to go away. i think all the employees for the banking system that are going to get fired are going to add to the malaise on the economic side. and all these issues are going to continue. but the fed's music is going to play and we're all going to keep dancing. >> dani, how important are the pictures going to be from cyprus tomorrow? and how will it play into, you know, trading tomorrow? if, indeed, they are not able to get those banks out and open, that's one picture. the other, though, is perhaps a run on some of the banks that they do manage to get open. we all know how those pictures from greece a couple of years
ago really affected the market. >> they're very disconcerting. i think no matter what, we're going to see a lot of fear into europe because of what they're going to see in cyprus. we can talk about how, you know, small that economy is. but 50% of that economy is the banking industry. not only the banking industry but the jobs in the banking industry. i think people are going to be very concerned seeing those pictures. i think that, you know, the contagion is a possibility there. when people think that and they see those things on tv, it just unfortunately gives that feeling of fear and that it could happen anywhere. >> david kelly, we were getting to a point where people like, you know, global strategists were saying that maybe europe was starting to look attractive again. maybe it was time to get in there. is that -- are people going to rethink that with the way things were handled in nicosia? >> i think it does give people cause for pause. european stocks are still cheap. but they're not as cheap, i think, as u.s. stocks given the outlook here.
i do think we're going to have some volatility here because of the problems and the bad policy in europe. but i think long term investors should still recognize that the elephant in the room or the rhino as rick would put it are these central banks. they are keeping rates down. they are fixing the game to make it very difficult to make good money in fixed income or cash. i think ultimately over the rest of the year and next year it's going to continue to flow money towards equities. i think this is a pause in the equity market rally maybe for a few days, maybe a few weeks, ooip not sure. i think for long term investors equities are going to move up. also i think in the long run interest rates will move up. >> you know, though, rick, i was pretty stunned at the move in the euro today. bill highlighted it just last hour. we came in above the 130 mark this morning and overnight. we certainly didn't finish that way. that was a pretty big move. >> you know, it was. when i was on "squawk box" this morning watching the deterioration that began about 6:30 a.m. eastern time, it kept so many traders down here out of trouble. i'm telling you. if you want an easy barometer,
and bill's been talking about it all day, just watch that euro. it's not foolproof. but if it couldn't garner a bid after its initial surge on what looks to be a deal, the banks haven't opened yet, that what you want to pay attention to. >> todd salimoni, where are you going to put some money to work here? >> we're sticking with what's working. contrary to the consensus, we like the small cap group. it's outperforming this year. actually, the small caps look pretty decent. >> they're sitting at all-time highs. is it too late? >> no. i mean, five years, ten years, one year, it's outperforming. i think there's a lot of monies going toward these defensive plays. yet the small caps are marching to their own tune, drum beat. that's a sector we continue to favor. >> alan valdes, what do you expect this week? we've got a holiday. cyprus, too. >> i think you keep your eye on cyprus. see if there's a run on the
banks. otherwise a slow week. news is going to be kind of slow unless it's coming out of europe. we've got a short week, too. i think we'll trend here and probably trend up later on in the week. >> see what happens. thank you, all. dani, thanks for sticking around. meantime, the s&p did shy away from its record high hit in october of 2007. has the dow pulled back from that new intraday high. let's get josh lipton to break down for us the day's winners and losers. >> bill, let's review what ended in the green and in the red in today's session. notable winners today, apollo group. your best performing stock in the s&p 500. apollo besting expectations and planning to buyback up to 250 million of its stock. other gainers today, cliffs natural resources. mcgraw-hill which plans to buy back $500 million of shares using some of the proceeds from the sale of its education business. dell climbing higher today. as did visa. where analysts at nomura see positive first half data points fueling new highs on this one. visa hitting a new 52-week high today. some of your laggards today,
bill, red hat. analysts at raymond james downgrade it to market perform ahead of its earnings report on wednesday, saying there are risks to its growth outlook. red hat your worst performer today in the s&p. other names losing ground, ebay, first solar and check point software. a notable laggard in the nasdaq. analysts at lazard say palo alto networks looks to be gaining ground on it rivals. downgrade check point to neutral. much more ahead on your way to a very busy edition of "closing bell." >> just getting started. >> the plate is so full. up next, bull versus bear. someone here sees the s&p 500 hitting 1600 by the end of the year. is he right? stick around for our market debate. that's coming up next. by the way, uberbear harry dent is on the other side in a big way. >> he does not see 1600 on the s&p. >> nope. later, no lines for its new smartphone have some concerned about blackberry. those shares bruised again today after a goldman sachs analyst
called its z-10 launch disappointing. we will discuss blackberry's fate coming up. plus, dented image perhaps? ford and its ad agency apologizing for depicting former italian prime minister silvio berlusconi driving a ford with women tied up in the back. we'll talk more about the importance of protecting your brand. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. how do traders using technical analysis streamline their process? at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts
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all right. forget we're close to an all time record high in the s&p 500. because our next guest says it's all about a correction now. in fact, he's calling for a 7% to 10% drop in the s&p 500. could start as early as, well, maybe it did just start today. that's what some people are talking about. >> he's, of course, hs dent founder mar eer harry dent. welcome back. you first. why still so negative? >> well, again, we've got this problem in europe. as rick santelli said a few minutes ago, europe is not going away. europe's demographic trends are only plateauing here. after 2014 they fall off a cliff even larger than japan in the late '90s. europe's only going to get in deeper trouble. longer term i'm bearish.
short term i just see a minor correction over the debt ceiling debate, over europe. and then a new high. i do see the s&p going to 1600 this year. probably this summer. >> really? >> then i see growing chances of a major correction that may take a couple years or may take several years. but it's clear to me u.s. demographics only get worse. we're running $2 trillion. fiscal stimulus. in qe a year to create $300 billion in gdp growth. 2% growth. that's a bad equation. >> nathan, why don't you pick it up. part of harry's argument seems to make sense. he is looking for 1600 in the s&p at some point. change your view at all? >> yeah, i know. harry has been calling for the world to come to an end for a long time. i brought my umbrella. >> what are you, mary poppins? >> i'm going to take off. look, the fact of the matter is we are actually having good news. it's hard for some people to say, really, there's fwood news? you pump $4 trillion in.
you don't have the fed pulling its money out which it's not going to do any time soon. you've got to take a look at facts on the ground. we've got $900 billion sitting in money market accounts. heaven forbid if we ever get a multiplier. housing is starting to show a rise. believe it or not the best thing it says to me, we've still got a lot to go, harry, look at large cap growth. pe discount. large cap growth is selling at about 75% of what it should be. guess what? we've got con ed right there in new york selling at almost a 16 pe multiple. are you going to tell me con ed is a better deal right now than maybe an apple or some technology stocks? so very clearly what's happening is the investor is scared. >> all right. he threw a lot at you there, harry. let me do two words that come out of what nathan had to say that people are pointing to, to support this market down the road without a major selloff. those two words are federal reserve. how do you reconcile that? >> no, exactly. what i said. $2 trillion a year in stimulus. that's the only reason we're
growing at a paltry 2%. that's a horrible equation. imagine what would happen if we did not have all this qe. the fed could do that for another ten years. we'd have a $30 trillion government debt. we'd have a $15 trillion balance sheet. if you want to bet on that, nathan, bet on that. i'm betting on 320 million people doing what people do as they age. they spend less money. the fed's going to only have to stimulate more and more. >> really. the american consumer is fabulous, harry. >> $2 trillion of stimulus, nathan. >> you could have a $2 trillion mortgage on your house if you can afford to pay the debt right now. you're not going to be going bankrupt any time soon. >> nathan, i want to talk to you five years from now. you are crazy. people in a bubble, they never see the bubble. they sit there and say it's fine until it bursts. >> harry, some day the star is going to super nova. if you predict it long enough, in 450 million years you're going to be right.
you haven't had a prediction that hit yet. >> we've already had a crash. the government stopped it. that didn't happen in history. let the government keep doing this. they will keep it going as long as they can. >> we didn't have it. >> they will fail. they will fail. i will make that prediction. >> you'll never make money betting against america. >> i'm not betting against america. i'm the most bullish person in the world for the last 20 years. i'm betting against artificial stimulus by a government gone nuts. that's what i'm betting against. >> the government will pull out. >> one at a time. nathan, go ahead. >> look, the government is going to pull out. i'm arguing with santelli about this. i'll tell you what will happen. over time the government will stop buying as many bonds as the private sector moves in. you'll eventually get a full private sector economy. unfortunately it's going to take a while because we are, i'll agree with you on this, we're in a deep hole right now, no doubt about it. >> if they do it gradually to nathan's point, harry, doesn't it actually turn out -- if the government feels as though the market and the economy is healthy enough for them to start
to pull out, doesn't that net net become a positive for the market? >> yeah. >> it's only healthy because of $2 trillion a year in stimulus. that's a huge amount of money. article officially created. >> when they start to take that out -- >> the economy is going to slow down. the natural trends say people are going to spend less money in the next six years. europe's going to see much worse than us. >> nathan, last word. >> as long as central governments around the world are doing the same thing, it almost doesn't really mean much. if we were the only ones doing it, harry, then i might think we have a really big problem. >> bet on the federal reserve, nathan. be my guest. you should stay in the markets the next six years. >> i'll see you in six, harry. >> thank you, both. never a calm conversation with harry dent. >> he's passionate. >> who's up for that? nathan bachrach was up for that.
hot or not? with the s&p 500 still not far from an all-time high despite today's decline, find out which sectors have come along for the ride and which ones have been left in the dust. the list may shock and surprise you. but it could tell you where value is right now. also ahead, overly optimistic? someone here says blackberry shares will top 19 bucks over the next year. that would be more than a 30% move to the upside for that stock. we'll debate whether that if-y price target is real or not. you're watching cnbc. we are first in business worldwide. it's monday.
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never mind how the major averages finish today. the dow still managed to trade at an all-time high before pulling back. while the s&p came within just a couple of points of its record closing high which was hit back in october of 2007. bob pisani runs through the sectors leading the rally early on today. bob? >> important thing is what's happened is while we're not at new high, we're close enough. a number of sector, bill, are already essentially at historic highs. a mix of the defensive and cyclic cal naal names. essentially at or near historic highs. there's a group that's kind of in the middle, bill, that hit historic highs in 2008 and are just off of them. just below them about 10%. that's the utility stocks and the energy stocks and the
materials stocks are just off of their historic highs but heading in the right direction, at least. finally, here's the really tough one, these are the guys that have never gotten close. telecom stocks and the tech stocks were destroyed in the dot com bubble in 2000 and essentially have never gotten close back to old historic highs. 50% off. financials got destroyed in the financial crisis of 2008. they never really got all the way back. here's the problem, bill. financials and tech are the two biggest weightings in the s&p 500. they're the ones who really sort of held it back from getting to those historic highs that we've been waiting for for a while. back to you. >> we still wait. thank you, bob. so which sectors at this point in the rally should you look to buy into? and which ones would you avoid or underweight, as they like to say on wall street? >> what about the dark horse? is there a dark horse out there you might want to bet on. brian belski. and ryan lenza is u.s. equity
strategist for td. >> you'd love to take on harry dent, wouldn't you? >> wouldn't that be great? >> you wouldn't get a word in edgewise. >> i would sit there like this. the thinking man. >> as we all do. what do you like here? what sectors? >> bill, i tell you what, if you take a look at the u.s. as an asset, we said for a long time, as an asset it's the best looking asset from an equity perspective in the world. peel back the onion, look at sectors, clearly it's things like industrials, energy and technology. all three are intertwined to some degree. we think all three will benefit from the quote, unquote within manufacturing and renaissance. now, part of that actually will be because of the consternation and volatility we're seeing in europe and emerging markets. we bring business back to the u.s. >> i don't know if you saw the chief economist at goldman sachs today took issue with the idea of an industrial renaissance here in the united states. he says -- >> what's his name? >> yan hatsias. >> is he from this country?
>> yes, he is, as a matter of fact. why does that matter? his point is the recovery we're seeing in the industrial sector is cyclical, not secular. he doesn't expect it to last long. >> here would be our comeback to that. think about corporate america, bill and sue, with respect to how tight they're running their businesses. you can't get blood from a turnip. they have great balance sheets. here's the kicker. over the past ten years if you did a contribution to performance in the sector like portfolio managers do for portfolios the majority of gains within the industrial sector were done by companies that really benefit from emerging markets international. we have not seen an infrastructure spend and rebound here in a number of years. it's those companies fundamentally best to lead the way. >> brian, weigh in on this. at this point we have gone pretty far pretty fast in a number of key sectors. what sectors would you still deploy capital to and how defensive do you think you have to be? >> well, we would agree with brian. we also have an overweight in
the industrials and the information technology sector. yet i'm market weight on energy. if we're looking at the energy sector on a relative basis the last 18 months that sector has been an underperformer. technically i'm not seeing a lot to get excited about. also we have a strengthening u.s. dollar. i see that as a bit of a head wind for the energy sector. where i diverge with brian is on the health care sector. i've got an overweight on that sector. that's probably the one sector i continue to pound the table on. again, a big overweight there. we've got strong technicals. we have good valuations. sector trades around 14.5 times. that's a discount to its ten-year average. a great balance sheet. we continue to really like the health care sector. that's probably our top sector we like the most now. >> under weight, mr. belski. krou don't like telecom. you don't like utilities. >> no. from an asset basis they're burning lots of cash. telecom companies are taking on each other in pricing.
they're going to have a hard time with earnings growth. for dividend growth telecom looks okay. utilities in general having a real problem. with respect to health care, drugs are the place to be in health care. two big spots. drugs and hmos. hmos have regulatory and earnings growth risks. drugs we're seeing reviving the pipeline. we would agree with that. on an industry basis, not on a sector basis. >> ryan, if there's one you said health care is your favorite sector. but outside of health care, where else would you be putting money? the so-called dark horse? or was that your dark horse? >> no. my dark horse is actually the information technology sector. that sector has been lagging this year. year to date it's only up about 5%. but the bulk of the underperformance is from apple. i think apple is at a major inflection point right now. just today we put out a note to our clients, a technical call on apple. we think the down trend has been reversed. we think there's more upside in apple. so, therefore, i think the information technology sector is going to do better on this strengthening apple share price.
>> what do you think? >> no. we agree from a fundamental perspective that many portfolio managers are extrapolating the issues on apple, perceived or not, to the entire sector. apple's really been hurt by a function of being a funding of redemption type tool. like in 2000 and 2001 microsoft and ge were hurt by redemptions. biggest stock in the world. apple has been hurt by redemptions recently. we think tech is a layup for the next ten years. continues to be the premiere innovator. talk about a cash cow. great balance sheets. >> walt frazier was just here. >> 1973 knicks thing. >> great guards from the knicks. i hated him back in the day because he -- i was a laker fan. now i appreciate his historical value. anyway, thank you both for joining us today. see you later. hit or miss? goldman sachs calls blackberry's z-10 launch disappointing. that stock's taking a hit as a result today. since blackberry is all in on this launch, should you be out of the stock? we're going to look at both
sides of the smart phone's make it or break it moment coming up next. a little bit later talk about early birds. find out why more young people have been buying homes in retirement communities. are these investments that you might want to look at as well? later, ford, here we go again. its add agency in full damage control after a mock-up. brian bell is looking at this for the first time. mock-up art work depicting paris hilton with three kardashian sisters tied up in the trunk of a ford make their way online. how did that even happen? the shocking story coming up. ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪
okay. [ male announcer ] with citibank's popmoney, dan can easily send money by email right from his citibank account. nice job ben. [ male announcer ] next up, the gutters. citibank popmoney. easier banking. standard at citibank. take a look at blackberry shares on the close. down 4.5%. taking another bruising today. wow. quite a run for that stock. >> its z-10 smartphone launch famed to impress goldman sachs which downgraded the stock causing a selloff. jon fortt with more on blackberry's struggle. >> goldman sachs said the sell through was the issue. your typical store they surveyed was selling fewer than ten 10-z units a day. combine that with deutsche bank who said blackberry z-10 demand is cooling off after a hot
launch in the uk and canada. not everyone agrees with the doom and gloom. the big picture challenge for blackberry goes beyond phones. a big chunk of profit comes from service revenue. from blackberry subscribers. that number fell for the first time last quarter by one million. consensus is it's going to drop by another 1 million this quarter. i think the danger is it could actually drop by more than that this quarter as those blackberry subscribers who signed off two years ago come off contracts and flee to android, iphone or even new blackberries that don't bring the same service revenue. even if the new phones are a hit they're a less profitable hit, bill. >> got it. jon, good to see you. thanks. can blackberry mount an assault in the smartphone wars or is its new phones going to be a bust? that's the question right now. >> that. let's talk about that with peter misic of jeffries who thinks reports of blackberry's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
but steward jaffray has his doubts. jon brought up interesting points including the service revenue. >> it's not about the hand sets. they don't make any money on their existing handsets. z-10s if they get 5% global market share would be a home run. frankly that's what we were expecting in the u.s. the service revenues, 30 million of subscribers are corporate. they now handle iphones. they handle other devices including android and blackberry on one server. let's say they generate $100 per year on an annual subscription basis. you've got 5 billion at a 40% operating profit or $4 earnings per share in three to five yoors. that's the key to our thesis. that's the business. that's the future of blackberry. >> stewart, what do you think of that reasoning, that math? >> i think that math has been very -- used a lot in the -- we've got some of the parts type valuation. what we saw was blackberry's willingness to sell their devices below cost and have
negative gross margins. so looking at it as a stand alone entity is an interesting way of looking at things. it's got to sell devices to make sure people continue to use those blackberry devices. if they don't the enterprise market will transition to android or to iphones and the consumers will make the transition as well. >> we can transition. they support that no problem now. they do it better, cheaper and faster. they could exit the handset business. suddenly that negative gross margin disappears and you have profit. i don't think the street's looking at that. last year we had a sell on the stock. we upgraded it at ten. we think it's now a great buy. we think it's a great cash flow story that's already been discounted. the z-10, frankly the launch here in the united states was mediocre as we expected. internationally it was great. >> why the difference, though? how important, though, is the u.s. market? i mean, it did have a really stellar launch in other parts of the world. we mentioned canada, certainly. you know, the market is looking at the u.s. launch.
that's what has it worried. put in perspective how important the u.s. market is for blackberries compared to the others, peter. >> there's a billion smartphones sold every year approximately. asia's more than half. frankly the key for blackberry going forward is they continue to dominate in europe, asia at that middle end and the business market. with 30 million business subscribers, that's really all that matter. verizon has 10 million enterprise subs, at&t, 10 million. they're going to upgrade. some percentage are going to upgrade. we don't think the z-10 has been to be a success. >> stuart, i'm a blackberry user. i admit. i've got a vintage. peter, you talk about three years they average. mine's, like, seven years old at this point and it still works. i keep replacing the string. you know, it keeps working. there it is. but i'm waiting for the q-10. i need a real keyboard. i don't want this nonsense of a virtual keyboard.
i know i'm not alone in that. is it possible it's the q-10 that has a better reception than the z-10 when all is said and done? what do you think? >> i think if you focus on the enterprise market and the q-10 has an opportunity to have a bit of a refresh cycle, i think that's what's driving the stock in the last few months and why it's up so much. people are looking for the new product to drive some replacement in the enterprise market. people have held on to their devices for a long time. the fact of the matter is if you're just hosting a good or some other type of service you're getting probably a quarter of the revenue of hosting blackberry service. that undermines the service revenue argument. consumer is going to be falling by a good billion over the next few years as well. look at smartphone business models. only the apple approach of really controlling services and content and having a good integrated solution works. blackberry hasn't been doing that. or you need to control the device with the best components and best scale. samsung's done that. no one else has managed that. the problem looking purely at enterprise side misses the fact people have to have two devices
if you take that view or you need to have confidence people will be -- >> bill and i both have two devices. >> i should say, i do have two devices here. >> make the argument simple. i described a company that had 50 million subs at $100 a year. lower than what they make now. at a 40% operating profit. re recur ing. what would you pay for that? probably a lot. we see the ipo of air watch are good, going to be valued probably in the multiple billions of dollars at a fraction of the subs, fraction of the revenue, we would argue that's the real opportunity. we totally agree the z-10, all these hand sets, rim can't compete. that's why we think a chinese tie-up is the way to go. earnings are going to be positive in may. that's the key. >> it has had a spectacular fall from grace over the year. we know that. whether it can come back or not depends on the handset coming out now. good to see you both. yes, this goes to the smi
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well, here is one from the "excuse me, you did what?" files. a creative advertisie ining gro working for ford did artwork which ford says was never asked for or approved. >> they're apologizing because of the furry thaty that erupted silvio berlusconi with a try owe of bound women in the back of the car as well as a similar photo of tied and gagged kardashian sisters. were these meant as a joke? were these for real? >> these were not meant for real in the sense that they were not approved by ford. i think that's what we need to remember. ford never meant for these ads to actually be on the air.
they did not approve them. they did not sanction them. they did not pay for them. it was basically a rogue creative group. >> just having fun. >> yeah. >> letting off steam one night. >> basically. kind of like artists. creatives at ad agencies. they want to kind of have a chance to not work under the boundaries that are set for them. >> right, right, right. >> so that's what happened. >> what happened? how did they get out there? >> how did they get out there. >> i asked you first. >> basically, these creatives up loaded them to a website called ads of the world. they did want them to be seen. they did want to see if they would get attention for them. they did. it worked. >> they put out a trial balloon and it got attention. the old adage, as long as you spell the name right all attention is good attention. that's not the case this time. >> there will definitely be some jobs on the line, i'm sure. because the agency, jwt in india, is certainly embarrassed. this is a very important client for them, ford. ford is incredibly embarrassed as well. in order to try and make good,
there will definitely be some jobs on the line. >> it also comes -- difficult timing to say the at least. there was that incredibly horrific event in india. the gang rape of the woman. the young student. there has been a big campaign in india to uplift women in that country. and to push against denigration of women. then this comes out. it's awful. >> the timing could not be worse, basically. >> it's awful. >> i think that the real losers in this whole situation from a reputation standpoint, it is going to be india as a country, actually. because with the gang rape situation and then now when you see something like this where clearly there's no respect for women that is being conveyed on a global stage. and that's not something that i think india in the past has been associated with. being violent in this way or being, you know, so abusive. i think especially as a big world power, as a place that is, you know, huge for tourism, it's going to hurt india's reputation
more than anything. more than ford. more than these creatives. >> what does ford have to do now? >> we just showed the statement briefly there that they put out. deeply regretting the existence of these ads. does it go far enough? do they have to do something else? is there another ad campaign they have to come up with? what do you think they have to do? >> i don't think so. i mean, to be honest, you know, in this day and age from the media perspective, it's here today, gone tomorrow. i don't think there's going to be a lasting effect on ford's brand reputation. and, in fact, you know, while the jobs will be on the line for these creatives, i do have to wonder if in the long term it's probably not going to hurt them. it probably might even help them. because here's something in their portfolio that shows that they're willing to take a risk. willing to take a chance. you know, it went sour in this instance. but, actually, it did help them stand out. >> yes, it did. >> and i think, you know, there's a lesson here,
obviously. that today, you know, there's no hiding. it's a global world. it's a connected world. it's a digital world. there's absolutely no hiding. >> i mean, i hesitate to say this. because it is so distasteful. but if it's going to appeal to anybody, it's going to be the young male demographic, right? >> absolutely. >> which is who ford would want to go after anyway, right? >> in a sense. >> was that the thinking there? i can't believe i'm trying to justify what they might have been thinking other than it just being a goof. >> i think it was a social m commentary. let's be frank. i don't think silvio berlusconi is someone who's strayed from controversy. >> that's an understatement, yes. thank you so much. >> we won't try and justify it any further. >> no, we shouldn't. it was tasteless. >> thanks for joining us today. appreciate it very much. >> thank you. we're winding down on this edition of "the closing bell." don't go anywhere, because ahead we have a story that will impact investors and consumers. >> the supreme court is going to decide on a case involving federal regulators, drug
companies and consumer groups that some say adds $3 billion annually to america's prescription drug bill. and it could come out of everyone's pockets. we'll have that story coming up next here. also coming up, young people are snapping up homes in retirement communities. yes. retirement communities. find out why after a quick break. [ male announcer ] this is karen and jeremiah. they don't know it yet, but they're gonna fall in love, get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get married, they'll find some retirement people who are paid on salary, not commission. they'll get straightforward guidance and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
are you paying more for pharmaceuticals than you really need to right now? the supreme court is trying to decide that very issue and so-called pay for delay case. pay for delay is when brand name drug companies pay their generic rivals to hold back on putting their cheaper drugs on the market. bertha coombs has more on this story. >> the federal trade commission arguing before the supreme court today calls those so-called pay for delay deals anti-trust violations. and they say they cheat consumers of the huge savings they can reap. the case before the court involves drug distributors and watson lab over the testosterone
replacement drug. the firms reached a patent deal back in 2006 that keeps the generic off the shelves until 2015. the companies argue the agreement brings the drug to market actually five years before the patent actually expires. the industry argues more than 60% of patent cases are settled and consumers benefit because things do come to market sooner. they cite the settlement between pfizer and generic drug makers which saw the cholesterol drug go generic five years early. saving consumers $4.5 billion. analyst barbara ryan says most deals so far have been upheld on appeal. >> these deals have been structured such that generics will get on the market before the patent expires, the brand name company is protecting. and i think that is the integrity of these deals. >> nonetheless, nine years of this case seems like a long time. justice alito is not taking part in this decision, there's a small chance the justices could deadlock. if that's the case, the appeals
court ruling for the ftc will prevail. sue? >> thank you very much, bertha. so why are young people buying homes in retirement communities years ahead of the time they retire? diana olick is on the cusp of this new trend in housing. at century village, retirement community in boca raton, senior citizens get in early for yoga, but not charlie roke. >> no, this is my little get away place. >> reporter: at 56, he's neither a senior citizen nor a retiree. what he is an astute buyer. >> i bought an apartment that not long ago was valued around $75,000 and i picked it up for $20,000. >> reporter: from the height in 2006 to the bottom in 2011, home prices in boca raton fell 53%. now they're heading up again and
that has created a great opportunity for home buyers of any age. while the median age here at century village may be coming down, you still have to be 55 years old to live here. but that hasn't stopped younger investors from jumping right in, taking advantage of the low prices and waiting it out until retirement. >> they see a significant uptick in property values increasing and inventory drastically decreasing. so they have elected to buy now. >> reporter: as for his holder neighbors, charlie roke has nothing but respect. but he doesn't know many of them because he's usually out at work. diana olick, cnbc, boca raton, florida. >> great story. what happens with the stock market tomorrow? >> our trio of market pros give you a leg up on tomorrow's action when we come back. [ male announcer ] just when you thought you had experienced performance
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